Part 1 set out why China's slowdown looks structural. Part 2 asks where the money already went. Over two and a half years the commodity China buys has gone sideways, while the commodities China controls have repriced by between two thirds and nine times. Tungsten, tin, copper and iron ore, and the ASX and TSX producers on either side of the split.

Part 1 mapped the register. Part 2 explained which of those ores actually give their metal back. This note prices them. It carries one Watershed orebody through three eras of tungsten money, from a US$450 study assumption in 2014 to a A$1.3 billion valuation in 2026; it re-bases the district’s only public tin study to today’s price with every assumption on the table; and it closes on the question the whole series has been building to.

Japan took thirty years to recover from a debt-fuelled property bubble. China's own property crisis began in 2021 and is unresolved, its local debt is far harder to measure than Japan's ever was, and Beijing is already legislating against AI-driven job losses while Washington still debates the idea. Part 1 of a two-part macro series.

South Africa holds about four fifths of the world's platinum group metal reserves. Samso looks at what Bengwenyama's chrome, its missing offtake and its unexplained discount are actually worth.

Position sizing for ASX investors, and how much to put in one stock. An MIT lecturer hands out paper, names a sum, and exposes the decision most skip.

Two tin deposits can report identical assays and still have opposite futures. The variable that separates them is the size of the ore mineral grains: grain size sets recovery, recovery multiplies grade, and no drill intersection reports it. Part 2 of the eastern Australia tin and tungsten series explains the grain size problem and how it decided which known fields became mines.

Australia has a real data centre industry and a small number of ASX companies are actually in it. Across three years of price action, binding contracts moved share prices and held, while non-binding memoranda and pipeline announcements faded.

Manganese has traded in a band for a decade while steelmakers quietly consumed almost all of it. A small, unproven battery-chemistry demand story is now attached to that steel story. On the ASX, a handful of companies sell the actual product and report the revenue.

Simandou's 120 Mtpa is read as a straightforward reason for lower iron ore prices. This Samso Insight tests whether the market's supply-side arithmetic leaves out depletion, ramp-up time and demand outside China.

Storm Exploration is drilling a five kilometre conductor at Gold Standard, Ontario, to test a VMS target. Eric Sprott is the largest shareholder.