Interest Rates, Oil and Commodities for ASX Resources Investors

The oil price is high because the war in the Middle East has cut Gulf supply, and two of the three main forecasting agencies expect the world to use less of it this year. Interest rates in Australia and the United States are rising to hold inflation back. Copper is close to a record and gold is about a fifth below its January peak. The US Energy Information Administration expects the oil price to fall once Gulf flows resume, and forecasters and central banks disagree on what comes next. This Samso Insight sets out where oil, interest rates and commodity prices and what the forecasters expect next. It then lists questions an ASX resources investor can ask about their holdings, and ends with Samso's view on the large miners, mid-sized companies and explorers.

On 8 October Samso published Commodity Prices in 2026, What the Global Forecasters Are Saying, with data to late September [R1]. In the three weeks since that data was taken, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has raised its cash rate. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has raised its oil price forecast for the December quarter by US$14 a barrel. The minutes of the US Federal Reserve's September meeting have pointed to another rise in US interest rates before the end of the year.

This piece follows on from that one. It covers oil, interest rates in both countries, copper, gold, iron ore and the ASX sector indices. Section 9.00 then turns the evidence into questions an investor can ask about where their money is held. It carries no recommendation to buy or sell anything.

A NOTE ON THE VOCABULARY AND THE SOURCES

Every technical term is explained where it first appears, and the recurring terms are collected in a vocabulary box at the back, above the references.

Each source carries an identifier, such as [R1]. The same identifier appears in the text where that source is used, so each figure can be traced to the document behind it.

All prices in this piece are as at the close of ASX trading on 13 October 2026. Global prices for Brent crude oil futures, gold, copper and iron ore, and the US 10-year Treasury yield, are the closing prices of the same day. Where a series was not published for that day, the text and tables give its date.

WHAT THIS PIECE COVERS

1.00 WHAT HAS CHANGED SINCE THE LAST SAMSO INSIGHT

The main market prices in October 2026, and what moved since late September.

2.00 OIL, WHY THE PRICE IS HIGH

The war, the Strait of Hormuz and the two Brent prices.

3.00 OIL, WHAT THE FORECASTERS EXPECT

The EIA's oil price forecast and three views on oil demand.

4.00 INTEREST RATES IN THE UNITED STATES

The Fed's September rise and what its officials have said since.

5.00 INTEREST RATES IN AUSTRALIA

Four RBA rises in 2026, inflation at 4 per cent, and bond yields.

6.00 COPPER, SUPPLY LOSSES IN CHILE

Why copper is close to its record price.

7.00 GOLD, CENTRAL BANKS AND REAL INTEREST RATES

Why gold fell from January, and who is still buying.

8.00 IRON ORE AND THE ASX SECTOR INDICES

How energy, materials and gold shares have moved in 2026.

9.00 POSITIONING, AS QUESTIONS AN INVESTOR CAN ASK

Cash, bonds, oil shares, miners and gold, set against the evidence.

10.00 SAMSO VIEW

What it means for large miners, mid-sized companies and explorers.

1.00 — WHAT HAS CHANGED SINCE THE LAST SAMSO INSIGHT

The main market prices in October 2026

Table 01 sets out the prices this piece relies on, at the close of 13 October 2026, with the change since the end of 2025. Prices that are quoted every day, such as oil and gold, come from market data [R2]. Australian interest rates and the Australian dollar come from the RBA's statistical tables [R3]. The US 10-year yield is a daily close from market data [R2]. The dated Brent price comes from the EIA [R4].

The largest change in the table is in oil. Dated Brent, the price paid for a physical cargo of North Sea crude loading in the next few weeks, has roughly doubled since the end of 2025. The Australian 10-year bond yield has risen by about two thirds of a percentage point and the US 10-year yield by about one percentage point. Copper is up and gold is down. The ASX 200 is close to where it began the year, while the energy index is up 30.7 per cent.

Since the data in the 8 October Samso Insight was taken, dated Brent has risen again. It reached US$135.51 a barrel on 2 October, its highest close since April [R4]. The RBA raised its cash rate target to 4.60 per cent on 29 September, its fourth rise this year [R5]. The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that consumer prices rose 4.0 per cent in the 12 months to August [R6].

In the United States, the minutes of the Federal Reserve's September meeting, released on 7 October, said most of its members expected another rise to be appropriate by the end of the year [R7]. In Chile, copper supply has been affected by a strike and a fatal accident in the past week [R8] [R9].

The forces that set prices in September are still in place. Oil supply is short, inflation is above the central banks' targets in both countries, and the central banks are responding with higher interest rates. The EIA still expects the oil price to fall as Gulf flows return and stocks are rebuilt. It warns that flows will stay volatile [R10].

2.00 — OIL, WHY THE PRICE IS HIGH

The Gulf supply loss and falling oil use

The United States and Israel launched air strikes against Iran on 28 February 2026 [R11]. Since then the flow of oil out of the Persian Gulf has been cut. Tankers leaving the Gulf pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow sea passage between Iran and Oman shown in PLATE 01 [R12]. Pipelines to ports outside the Gulf are the way around it, and the EIA says ship-to-ship transfers off Oman are also being used [R10]. Samso's earlier piece, Beyond Oil, What the Strait of Hormuz Really Means for Australia, covers that passage in more detail.

The EIA estimates how much Gulf oil production has been shut in, which means wells that could produce but have stopped because the oil cannot be shipped or stored. The figure peaked at 10.9 million barrels a day in May. It was 5.8 million barrels a day in August and 4.8 million in September [R10]. For scale, the EIA puts world oil use at about 102 million barrels a day in 2026 [R10].

In September attacks halted the main route around the strait. Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline carries crude across the country to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea. The EIA estimates it was shipping more than 5.0 million barrels a day before attacks halted its flows. Dated Brent reached US$131 a barrel on 15 September as buyers looked for cargoes to replace the Saudi oil. The pipeline was repaired and partly resumed on 22 September [R10].

On 11 October Al Jazeera reported that talks to end the war were deadlocked and that at least 12 ships were attacked in the week to 5 October [R13]. The same report cited the ship-tracking firm Kpler as estimating crude passing through the strait at about 8.5 million barrels a day in the week to 7 October, about 40 per cent below normal [R13]. On 13 October The National reported Iranian and US officials giving opposite accounts of whether the strait was open [R14]. The state of the strait is therefore disputed.

Two Brent prices, and why they differ

Brent is the main world benchmark for crude oil, based mainly on oil from the North Sea. There are two Brent prices in common use, and FIG. 01 shows both. Dated Brent is the price for a physical cargo loading in the next few weeks. Brent futures are exchange-traded contracts priced for a later delivery month [R2].

Before the war the two prices moved together. After it began, the gap averaged about US$15 a barrel in April on Samso's calculation, narrowed to almost nothing in June and July, and widened again in September and early October [R4] [R2]. On 6 October 2026 dated Brent was US$125.44 a barrel, against US$100.58 for the futures contract, a gap of about US$25. The futures contract closed at US$105.69 on 13 October 2026.

The gap between the physical price and the futures price is called the physical premium. When futures for the nearest month also trade above later months, traders say the market is in backwardation. Both mean buyers want oil now and that the market expects supply to ease later. A headline oil price such as US$105.69 is usually the futures price. Physical cargoes, including those bought by refiners, are priced nearer the dated price. So the price refiners pay is closer to the higher of the two numbers.

The UAE has left OPEC

OPEC is the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, a group of producers that agree how much oil each member will pump. OPEC+ is the wider group that includes Russia. The United Arab Emirates left both on 1 May 2026, after announcing the decision on 28 April [R15] [R16]. It was OPEC's third-largest producer, behind Saudi Arabia and Iraq, with capacity of about 4.85 million barrels a day and a target of 5 million by 2027 [R17]. The EIA's latest tables list OPEC without the UAE [R10].

The EIA estimates that none of the UAE's production was shut in during August or September [R10]. So one of the larger producers now sets its own output, and that oil is reaching the market.

In the United States, oil output is rising and offsets part of the loss. The EIA forecasts US crude production of 13.87 million barrels a day in 2026 and 14.30 million in 2027, against 13.66 million in 2025 [R10]. Samso's September piece, Why Is the Oil Price Rising? ASX Oil Stocks to Watch in 2026, covers the ASX oil companies.

What Australians pay at the pump

The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) reported average prices across the five largest cities on 7 October. Petrol averaged 239.0 cents a litre that day, up 68.1 cents since 20 February, eight days before the war began. Diesel averaged 281.0 cents a litre, up 104.4 cents over the same period [R18]. Diesel runs trucks, mining fleets and farm machinery, so its price feeds into costs well beyond the petrol station.

3.00 — OIL, WHAT THE FORECASTERS EXPECT

The EIA's oil price forecast and three views on demand

The EIA publishes its Short-Term Energy Outlook each month. The October edition, released on 6 October, raised the forecast for Brent in the last quarter of 2026 to US$105 a barrel, US$14 more than a month earlier [R10]. FIG. 02 shows the path it expects.

The EIA assumes oil flows from the Middle East stay constrained to the end of 2026, with about 4.5 million barrels a day shut in during the fourth quarter. It then expects bypass routes and ship-to-ship transfers to help, with a new bypass pipeline in the UAE due in 2027. The EIA expects these to bring most of the region's output back to pre-war levels by the end of June 2027. On that basis Brent averages US$87 in the June quarter of 2027 and US$74 in the December quarter [R10].

The EIA also warns that the war will likely bring "more volatility in short-term price movements than our forecast indicates" [R10]. Its forecast inputs were finalised on 1 October, so the outlook does not allow for anything announced after that day [R10].

Bank forecasts made before September are below the EIA's current numbers. J.P. Morgan's published oil view, dated 16 July, forecast Brent at US$86 in the September quarter and US$80 in the December quarter [R19]. The EIA puts the September quarter average at US$95.95 [R10]. In April the World Bank's central forecast was an average of US$86 for 2026 [R20]. The EIA now expects US$96 for 2026 as a whole [R10]. The World Bank's next update was listed for October 2026 [R20].

How much oil the world is using

The forecasters agree that supply is short. They disagree on demand, which means how much oil the world uses. FIG. 03 sets out three views of the change in world oil use.

The EIA's October tables put world use at 102.43 million barrels a day in 2026, down from 104.40 million in 2025, a fall of about 2.0 million barrels a day [R10]. The International Energy Agency (IEA), which advises oil-importing countries, forecast in September that demand would fall by 2.5 million barrels a day in 2026 [R21]. OPEC's October report, as reported by Newsquawk, forecast growth of 0.2 million barrels a day, down from 0.4 million a month earlier [R22]. All three expect use to recover by 2.2 to 2.6 million barrels a day in 2027 [R10] [R21] [R22].

The International Energy Forum compares the three reports each month. Its September comparison noted that "OPEC remains the only agency expecting growth" in 2026 [R23]. The IEA's October report was due on 14 October, after this piece was written.

The EIA expects the price to fall once Gulf oil flows again. The EIA and the IEA expect the world to use less oil this year, and OPEC expects a small rise. When the flows return depends on the war, and no forecaster can say when that will be.

4.00 — INTEREST RATES IN THE UNITED STATES

The Federal Reserve rate and US bond yields

The Federal Reserve is the US central bank. Its main tool is the federal funds rate, the overnight rate banks charge each other, which it sets as a target range. On 16 September it raised that range by a quarter of a percentage point to 3.75 to 4.00 per cent, by a vote of 12 to 0 [R24]. It was the Fed's first rise since July 2023 [R25]. The statement said "Inflation remains elevated" [R24]. FIG. 04 sets the US rate beside Australia's.

US inflation is high mainly because of energy. Consumer prices rose 3.4 per cent in the 12 months to August. Energy prices rose 16.3 per cent. Prices excluding food and energy, which economists call core inflation, rose 2.4 per cent [R26]. The September figures were due on the evening of 14 October, Perth time [R26].

A central bank can choose to look through a short-lived rise in energy prices, which means leaving rates unchanged while the effect passes. The RBA's framework allows its Board to do that [R27]. Neither bank did so this time. The Fed said inflation remained elevated [R24], and the RBA said higher fuel prices had partly passed through to other goods and services [R5].

The minutes of the September meeting were released on 7 October. They said "most participants assessed that another increase in the target range for the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate by year end" [R7]. Several members described the current rate as "not restrictive or only mildly restrictive" [R7]. A restrictive rate is one high enough to slow spending and borrowing.

Each quarter Fed members publish where they expect rates to be. The median of their September projections was 4.1 per cent at the end of 2026, 4.1 per cent at the end of 2027 and 3.2 per cent in the longer run [R28]. This is the midpoint of the members' individual projections, not a Fed promise. A median of 4.1 per cent is the midpoint of a 4.00 to 4.25 per cent range, one quarter-point above the current range of 3.75 to 4.00 per cent. So it is consistent with one more rise this year, no change through 2027, and lower rates after that.

Fed officials have given different signals since. John Williams, president of the New York Fed, said on 29 September that after the September rise "there is no need for urgency", and that one further rise "may be appropriate late this year" [R29]. Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said on 1 October that any further move should follow the data and that forming that judgement "may take more time". He did not say which way [R30]. Beth Hammack, president of the Cleveland Fed, said on 12 October that she prefers smaller moves made "relatively quickly" rather than waiting, and that inflation above her forecast could require higher rates [R31].

Traders in interest rate futures, which are contracts whose price moves with the expected Fed rate, were on 13 October pricing more than a 78 per cent chance of no change at the 27 and 28 October meeting and nearly an 88 per cent chance of a rise by December, as reported by ActionForex [R32]. The Fed meets again on 8 and 9 December [R33]. Samso's earlier piece, US Interest Rates Are Rising Again, and China Has Stopped Exporting Falling Prices, covers the US rate rise in more detail.

Bond yields have risen with the rate. The US 10-year Treasury yield, the return a lender earns each year for lending to the US government for ten years, was 5.22 per cent on 13 October 2026. Its 2026 low was 3.96 per cent on 27 February 2026 [R2]. Many other assets are priced against this yield, so a rise of about a percentage point this year reaches asset prices well outside the United States.

For an Australian investor, the cost of money has risen in both countries. The Fed's rise has been a quarter of a percentage point. Long-term yields have moved further. The US 10-year yield, at 5.22 per cent, is now well above the Fed's range of 3.75 to 4.00 per cent, which means lenders are asking for more than the current policy rate to lend for ten years.

5.00 — INTEREST RATES IN AUSTRALIA

The RBA cash rate, inflation and bond yields

The RBA sets the cash rate, the interest rate on overnight loans between banks, which flows through to mortgage and deposit rates. PLATE 02 shows its head office in Sydney [R34]. It began 2026 at 3.60 per cent. It raised the rate to 3.85 per cent on 3 February, to 4.10 per cent on 17 March and to 4.35 per cent on 5 May, held it in June and August, and raised it to 4.60 per cent on 29 September [R3] [R5]. FIG. 04 above shows the path beside the US rate.

The March decision was close, five votes to four [R35]. The September decision was unanimous. The Monetary Policy Board's statement said "Inflation remains elevated and some of the upside risks flagged in August are materialising" [R5]. It said the Board would do what it considers necessary, "including increasing the cash rate target further if needed" [R5].

Inflation rose through winter. The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported on 30 September, the day after the decision, that consumer prices rose 4.0 per cent in the 12 months to August, up from 3.5 per cent in the 12 months to July [R6]. The trimmed mean, which drops the items with the largest price rises and falls each month to show the underlying trend, was 3.6 per cent [R6]. The RBA's target is to keep inflation between 2 and 3 per cent [R27]. The September quarter figures are due on 28 October [R6], and the RBA's Monetary Policy Board next meets on 2 and 3 November [R36].

The four largest banks do not agree on what happens in November. Westpac's chief economist, Luci Ellis, wrote that "a November hike is now the base case" [R37]. CBA senior economist Ashwin Clarke said "The risks remain tilted to a November hike" [R38]. NAB's chief economist, Sally Auld, said NAB continued to forecast the RBA on hold, with the risk that more tightening may be needed [R38]. ANZ said a rise to 4.85 per cent in November was more likely than not, as reported by the mortgage broker Aussie [R39]. CBA expects cuts to begin in August 2027 [R40] [R38].

Long-term yields have risen here too. FIG. 05 shows the Australian and US 10-year yields.

The Australian 10-year yield was 5.40 per cent on 7 October 2026, the latest day in the RBA's table, up from a 2026 low of 4.63 per cent on 2 March 2026 [R3]. The Australian dollar bought US$0.6961 on 13 October 2026. Its range this year has run from US$0.6673 on 5 January 2026 to US$0.7258 on 14 May 2026 [R3].

The Australian dollar affects resource companies because most commodities are sold in US dollars. A higher Australian dollar means each US dollar of sales is worth fewer Australian dollars, which lowers the local revenue of an exporter even when the commodity price has not moved. The Australian dollar is up 4.0 per cent this year against the US dollar.

For an Australian household and an Australian company, the cash rate has risen one percentage point this year, inflation is still above the RBA's target, and some of the banks see another rise as possible. Cash and deposits pay more than they did a year ago, which section 9.00 returns to.

6.00 — COPPER, SUPPLY LOSSES IN CHILE

Copper price and Chile supply

Copper is used in power cables, building wiring, electric vehicles and data centres. FIG. 06 shows the price. COMEX copper futures, traded on the New York futures exchange for metals, closed at US$6.68 a pound on 13 October 2026, about US$14,722 a tonne on Samso's conversion. That is up 30.9 per cent on a year earlier [R2]. The record close was US$6.80 on 9 September 2026 [R2].

Copper output in Chile has fallen. Chile's statistics agency, INE, reported that copper production in August was 369,500 tonnes, about 13 per cent lower than a year earlier and the lowest monthly total since February 2011, as reported by Bloomberg Línea [R41]. The causes cited were winter weather, port disruption, lower ore grades, which means less copper in each tonne of rock mined, and accidents. PLATE 03 shows Chuquicamata, one of Chile's largest copper mines, operated by the state company Codelco [R42].

Two events in the past week add to that. On 7 October about 709 workers, around 22 per cent of the direct workforce, went on strike at the Centinela mine owned by Antofagasta [R43]. The unions said output could halve in November. Antofagasta said its forecast of full-year output, which companies call guidance, was unchanged [R8]. On 11 October an avalanche of snow and mud in the open-pit area of Codelco's El Teniente mine struck a vehicle carrying three contract workers, and Codelco confirmed two had died [R9]. Open-pit work there had already stopped because of bad weather [R9].

US trade policy is also unsettled. In July 2025 the United States proclaimed a 50 per cent tariff on the copper content of semi-finished copper products, effective 1 August 2025. A phased duty on refined copper, of 15 per cent from 2027 and 30 per cent from 2028, was proposed [R44]. As at 10 September the White House had not decided whether to apply it, Tech Times reported [R45]. Samso's reading is that while the decision is pending, the COMEX price can trade above the London Metal Exchange price, because a tariff would make copper inside the United States dearer than copper in London. Forecasts made on the London price are therefore not directly comparable with the COMEX price used here.

The copper forecasts made earlier in the year are also below the price. In May, TD Economics forecast copper at an average of US$5.91 a pound for 2026 [R46]. The price on 13 October 2026 was US$6.68. A forecast of a year's average is not the same as a price on one day. In April the International Copper Study Group forecast a small surplus of refined copper for 2026, as reported by Mining Weekly [R47], which Samso's Commodity Prices in 2026 Insight covered on 8 October. The September 2026 edition of the Australian Government's Resources and Energy Quarterly forecast Australian copper export earnings rising from A$13.3 billion in the year to June 2026 to A$16.3 billion in the year to June 2027, as reported by Market Index [R48].

Copper is high while mines are losing output. The Chilean report does not name the war in the Gulf among the causes of the lost output [R41].

7.00 — GOLD, CENTRAL BANKS AND REAL INTEREST RATES

Gold, central bank buying and real interest rates

Gold pays no interest and produces nothing. People and central banks buy it as a store of value when they are worried about inflation, debt or war. FIG. 07 shows the price in US and Australian dollars.

COMEX gold futures closed at US$4,177 an ounce on 13 October 2026, about A$6,001 on Samso's conversion at US$0.6961 to the Australian dollar. The record close was US$5,318 on 29 January 2026, so the price is about 21 per cent below that peak. It is down 3.8 per cent this year in US dollars and down 7.5 per cent in Australian dollars [R2] [R3]. The Australian dollar price has fallen further because the Australian dollar has risen.

A real interest rate is the interest rate minus inflation, and it measures what a saver actually earns. When real rates rise, holding gold, which pays nothing, costs more in interest given up. TD Economics wrote in May that expectations of rates staying high for longer, and a stronger US dollar, had outweighed the demand for gold as a safe place to hold money, and that higher real yields raised the cost of holding it [R46]. US bond yields and the US dollar have both risen since May [R2]. The US dollar index, which measures the US dollar against six major currencies, is up about 4 per cent this year [R2]. The index does not include the Australian dollar.

Other buyers have kept buying. The World Gold Council reported that central banks bought 289 tonnes in the June quarter, 62 per cent more than a year earlier, while exchange traded funds, which are listed funds that hold physical gold for investors, sold 45 tonnes [R49]. In September those funds took in US$10 billion, and their holdings rose to a record 4,256 tonnes [R50]. So the funds that were selling in the June quarter were buying again by September.

Samso published a view on the gold price range in the 8 October Samso Insight. It was US$4,000 to US$4,500 an ounce in the short to medium term, and US$4,500 to US$5,000 over five to ten years [R1]. The price on 13 October 2026 is inside the first range. This piece does not add a new view on the gold price. Samso's earlier gold pieces, The Gold Question and The Big Consolidation, set out the reasoning in more detail.

For Australian gold producers, the Resources and Energy Quarterly assumed an average gold price of US$4,600 an ounce for 2026 and forecast gold export earnings of A$69.7 billion in the year to June 2026 and A$68.1 billion in the year to June 2027, as reported by Market Index [R48]. The assumed US$4,600 is an average for the year. The price on 13 October 2026 was US$4,177, below that figure, although the closes above US$5,000 in late January, February and early March count in the average. The All Ordinaries Gold index, which tracks ASX gold companies, was down 3.0 per cent this year and 20.3 per cent below its 2 March 2026 high at the close on 13 October 2026 [R2].

Rising real interest rates and a firmer US dollar push the gold price down, and central bank and fund buying holds it up. Gold closed at a record US$5,318 on 29 January and was close to that level again at US$5,312 on 2 March, the first trading day after the war began. It has fallen since, so the war alone has not held it up [R2]. Whether a December Fed rise weighs on gold depends on whether it lifts real yields. Markets already expect that rise [R32], so part of its effect may already be in the gold price.

8.00 — IRON ORE AND THE ASX SECTOR INDICES

Iron ore and the ASX sector indices in 2026

Iron ore is one of Australia's largest exports, sold mainly to Chinese steelmakers. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) futures contract for iron ore with 62 per cent iron content, delivered to China, closed at US$90.72 a tonne on 13 October 2026, down 15.3 per cent this year [R2]. Iron ore has not shared in the rise of oil and copper.

FIG. 08 shows four ASX indices rebased to 100 at the end of 2025. Rebasing divides each index by its starting value and multiplies by 100, so the lines show how much each has risen or fallen.

The ASX 200 closed at 8,783.9 on 13 October 2026, up 0.8 per cent this year and 5.3 per cent below its 6 August 2026 high. The energy index was up 30.7 per cent. The materials index, which holds the miners, was up 10.8 per cent and 11.4 per cent below its 25 August 2026 high [R2].

The Resources and Energy Quarterly forecast Australia's resources and energy export earnings rising to A$422 billion in the year to June 2027, up from A$403 billion in the year to June 2026, then falling to A$391 billion in the year to June 2028, as reported by Market Index [R48]. Earnings are forecast to peak in the year to June 2027.

The energy index holds oil, gas, liquefied natural gas (LNG), coal and uranium companies, so it is not a pure oil measure. The materials index includes the gold miners and the base metal and iron ore miners, along with chemicals, building materials and packaging companies, so it is broader than mining.

The share market has moved with the commodities so far. Energy shares have followed the oil price up, and gold shares have followed gold down. The ASX 200 as a whole is close to where it started the year, partly because it also holds banks, health care and other sectors that are not shown here.

9.00 — POSITIONING, AS QUESTIONS AN INVESTOR CAN ASK

Questions an investor can ask about rates and the oil price

The questions below follow from the evidence in sections 1.00 to 8.00. The answers depend on each investor's age, income, debts, tax position and how much loss they can live with, which is why they are written as questions. A licensed financial adviser can help answer them for an individual.

Cash and term deposits

FIG. 09 sets what cash earns beside inflation. The three-month bank bill rate, the rate banks pay each other to borrow for three months, was 4.76 per cent on 13 October 2026 [R3]. At the end of September the average one-year bank term deposit paid 5.00 per cent and the average online savings account 3.10 per cent, on RBA and CANSTAR data [R51]. Inflation was 4.0 per cent [R6].

After tax and after inflation, what does a deposit earn? A 5.00 per cent deposit earns about 1 percentage point more than the past year's 4.0 per cent inflation, before tax, and less after it. What it earns in real terms depends on inflation over the year ahead. If the RBA raises the rate again in November, deposit rates may rise with it. If cuts begin in 2027, as CBA expects [R40], a deposit fixed for longer would keep today's rate and a savings account would not. A further question is whether the money may be needed before a longer term ends.

Bonds

When yields rise, the price of an existing bond falls, because new bonds pay more. The longer a bond has to run, the larger that fall. As a rough guide, a bond's price falls by about its duration, a measure in years of how long its payments take to come back, multiplied by the rise in the yield. For a bond with a duration of 7 years, chosen only as an illustration, a rise of one percentage point cuts the price by about 7 per cent. Australian 10-year bonds yielded 5.40 per cent on 7 October 2026 [R3], close to the highest level in the RBA's daily series, which begins in May 2013.

The questions are how much a portfolio would lose if yields rose another percentage point, and whether the holder could leave a bond to maturity rather than sell it at a loss.

Oil and energy shares

The ASX energy index is up 30.7 per cent this year [R2], while the EIA forecasts Brent falling to about US$74 by late 2027 [R10]. On 6 October 2026 the futures price, US$100.58, was about US$25 below dated Brent, US$125.44 [R4], which is consistent with the market expecting supply to ease.

Funds that hold oil through futures contracts must sell each contract before it expires and buy the next one, which is called rolling. When later months are cheaper, rolling tends to add to a fund's return. When later months cost more, rolling costs the fund money. Fidelity explains that either way a fund's return can "deviate significantly from the spot price performance" of the commodity [R52]. ASIC, the Australian corporate regulator, warned in August that futures and short-dated options use borrowed money, called leverage, and can cause rapid losses [R53].

The questions are what oil price a company's share price already assumes, how its earnings change if oil falls to the EIA's path, and whether a product bought for oil exposure follows the price the investor thinks it does.

Copper and the miners

Copper's strength has come with supply losses at mines [R41] [R8]. The materials index, which also holds gold and iron ore miners, has fallen 11.4 per cent from its August high [R2]. The questions are whether a miner's earnings depend on copper, iron ore or both, since iron ore is down 15.3 per cent this year, and how much debt it carries as rates rise. A further question is how much of a miner's operating cost is diesel, which rose 104.4 cents a litre between 20 February and 7 October [R18].

Gold

Gold is held up by central bank buying and pushed down by real interest rates [R49] [R46]. The questions are what job gold is doing in a portfolio, whether that is protection against inflation, debt or war, and how the holder would feel about a further fall if the Fed raises rates in December.

Companies that borrow, and explorers that raise capital

Higher interest rates raise the cost of debt and lower the value investors place on earnings that are some years away, because a dollar earned in five years is worth less today when interest rates are higher. For an exploration company, which has no earnings, the main effect is on the price at which it can raise new money from shareholders. The questions are how much debt a company carries, when that debt has to be refinanced, and for an explorer, how many quarters its cash lasts.

Two paths for Gulf oil

Table 02 sets out two paths, using only what the sources above say, so a reader can test a portfolio against each.

Dates to watch

WHAT FORECASTS CAN AND CANNOT TELL AN INVESTOR

A portfolio built around a forecast depends on that forecast holding. The forecasts in this piece have moved quickly. The EIA raised its December quarter oil price by US$14 in one month [R10]. In April the World Bank expected US$86 for 2026 [R20].

Oil futures traded well below the physical price in early October, and interest rate futures already price a high chance of a December rise [R32]. By the time a forecast is published, much of it may already be in prices.

The rate path can turn too. The Fed's projections point to lower rates in the longer run [R28], and CBA expects RBA cuts from August 2027 [R40] [R38]. Cash earns more only while rates stay high.

There is also a case that rates and oil are close to their peaks. US core inflation was 2.4 per cent in the 12 months to August, against 3.4 per cent for all items, with energy up 16.3 per cent [R26]. John Williams said there was "no need for urgency" and Philip Jefferson said a judgement "may take more time" [R29] [R30]. The Fed's median projection is consistent with one more rise and then no change through 2027 [R28]. NAB forecasts the RBA on hold [R38]. The EIA expects Brent at about US$74 by late 2027 [R10].

On oil supply, the IEA forecast in September that demand would fall by 2.5 million barrels a day in 2026 [R21]. None of the UAE's output was shut in during August or September, and US output is rising [R10]. Oil futures trade well below the physical price, which is the market's own view that supply will ease [R4] [R2].

10.00 — SAMSO VIEW

Large miners, mid-sized companies and explorers, in Samso's view

SAMSO TAKE

Oil, interest rates and copper are all moving at once. Oil is high because supply is short. Interest rates are rising in Australia and the United States. Copper is close to its record while output has been lost in Chile. For a resources investor, each one reaches a different size of company in a different way.

The large miners sell in US dollars, so when the Australian dollar rises their sales are worth less in Australian dollars. The Australian dollar is up 4.0 per cent this year. The iron ore price has also fallen this year while copper has risen, so how a large miner is placed depends on what it digs up.

Some mid-sized resources companies are still building or expanding a mine, so much of their value sits in earnings several years away. Higher rates make those future earnings worth less today. In Samso's view, the ones that feel it first are those with debt to refinance in the next year or two, because the new loan will be priced at today's rates.

Others are already producing, and in Samso's view the commodity price matters more to them than the cash rate. The energy index is up 30.7 per cent this year and the All Ordinaries Gold index is down 3.0 per cent. The EIA expects Brent to fall to about US$74 a barrel by late 2027 [R10]. Rates still reach a producer through any debt it carries, but the price of what it sells comes first.

The micro exploration companies have no earnings yet. Their value rests on a mine that may be years away, so higher rates reach them through the price investors will pay at their next capital raising, when they sell new shares to pay for drilling. A copper explorer raising money today can point to copper near a record, although Chile has lost output that can return. A gold explorer is raising with gold about a fifth below its peak. In Australian dollars that is A$6,001 an ounce on Samso's conversion, down 7.5 per cent since the start of the year. In Samso's view, the cash in the bank and how many quarters it lasts matter more to these companies than the cash rate.

THE VOCABULARY, IN PLAIN ENGLISH

Brent crude

The main world benchmark price for crude oil, based mainly on oil from the North Sea.

Dated Brent and Brent futures

Dated Brent is the price for a physical cargo loading in the next few weeks. Brent futures are exchange-traded contracts priced for a later month.

Backwardation

When the price for prompt delivery is above the price for later months.

Duration

A measure in years of how long a bond's payments take to come back. It sets how much the price moves when yields change.

Shut-in production

Oil wells that could produce but have stopped, here because the oil cannot be shipped.

OPEC and OPEC+

OPEC is a group of oil-producing countries that agree output levels. OPEC+ is the wider group that includes Russia.

Demand, in oil

How much oil the world uses, measured in million barrels a day.

Federal funds rate

The overnight rate US banks charge each other, which the Federal Reserve sets as a target range.

Cash rate

The overnight rate between Australian banks, set by the RBA. It flows through to mortgage and deposit rates.

Core inflation

Inflation excluding food and energy, whose prices swing the most.

Trimmed mean

An inflation measure that drops the largest price rises and falls each period to show the underlying trend.

Bond yield

The yearly return a lender earns for holding a government bond to maturity. When yields rise, existing bond prices fall.

Real interest rate

An interest rate minus inflation. It measures what a saver actually earns.

Restrictive rate

An interest rate high enough to slow spending and borrowing.

Bank bill rate

The rate banks pay each other to borrow for a short term, such as three months.

Exchange traded fund

A fund listed on a stock exchange. A gold fund holds physical gold for its investors.

Rolling a futures contract

Selling a contract before it expires and buying the next one. It adds to a fund's return when later months are cheaper and costs money when they are dearer.

Rebased index

An index divided by its value on a start date and multiplied by 100, so different series can be compared.

11.00 — REFERENCES AND SOURCES

Where every figure comes from

Every chart in this piece, FIG. 01 to FIG. 09, was drawn by Samso from the published data named under it. None is reproduced from a subscription publication. The three photographs, PLATE 01 to PLATE 03, are public domain images from Wikimedia Commons. Each identifier below, [R1] to [R53], appears in the text at the point the source is used. Where a figure is described as reported by a named outlet, the originating document was not opened, and the reference says so. Market prices are as at the close of 13 October 2026 unless another date is given, and change daily.

[R1] Samso, "Commodity Prices in 2026, What the Global Forecasters Are Saying", Samso Insights, published 8 October 2026 (Perth). www.samso.com.au/post/commodity-prices-2026-what-the-forecasters-say

[R2] Yahoo Finance daily closes for BZ=F, GC=F, HG=F, TIO=F, ^TNX, DX-Y.NYB, ^AXJO, ^AXEJ, ^AXMJ and ^AXGD, downloaded 14 October 2026, closes to 13 October 2026. These are aggregated exchange data, not the exchanges' own settlement files. finance.yahoo.com/

[R3] Reserve Bank of Australia, statistical tables F1 (Interest Rates and Yields, Money Market, published 14 October 2026), F2 (Capital Market Yields, Government Bonds, published 9 October 2026) and F11.1 (Exchange Rates, published 13 October 2026). www.rba.gov.au/statistics/tables/

[R4] US Energy Information Administration, Europe Brent Spot Price FOB, series RBRTE, daily, file RBRTEd.xls, downloaded 14 October 2026, latest value 6 October 2026. www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/RBRTED.htm

[R5] Reserve Bank of Australia, "Statement by the Monetary Policy Board, Monetary Policy Decision", media release 2026-27, 29 September 2026. www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html

[R6] Australian Bureau of Statistics, Consumer Price Index, Australia, reference period August 2026, released 30 September 2026. Next release 28 October 2026. www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/consumer-price-index-australia/latest-release

[R7] Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, September 15 to 16, 2026, released 7 October 2026. www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260916.htm

[R8] Reuters, "Strike could cut November output at Chile's Centinela copper mine by half, unions say", via Engineering News, 9 October 2026. engineeringnews.co.za/article/strike-could-cut-november-output-at-chiles-centinela-copper-mine-by-half-unions-say-2026-10-09

[R9] The Clinic, "Nueva tragedia enluta a Codelco, fallecieron dos trabajadores por alud en El Teniente", 11 October 2026 (in Spanish). www.theclinic.cl/2026/10/11/avalancha-en-el-teniente-afecta-a-tres-trabajadores-codelco-confirma-rescate-en-curso-de-dos-de-ellos/

[R10] US Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026, released 6 October 2026, text and Tables 1, 2, 3a and 4a. Next release 10 November 2026. www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/pdf/steo_full.pdf

[R11] UK House of Commons Library, "US-Iran ceasefire and nuclear talks in 2026", research briefing CBP-10637, 2 July 2026. commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-10637/

[R12] Plate 01. U.S. Navy ships transit the Strait of Hormuz, 11 May 2012, Alex R. Forster, US Navy. Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons. commons.wikimedia.org, file page

[R13] Al Jazeera, "Hormuz attacks intensify as efforts to end war on Iran stall", 11 October 2026. www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/11/hormuz-attacks-intensify-as-efforts-to-end-war-on-iran-stall

[R14] The National, "Strait of Hormuz attacks surge as Iran steps up campaign against US-backed oil shipping", 13 October 2026. www.thenationalnews.com/news/gulf/2026/10/13/strait-of-hormuz-attacks-surge-as-iran-steps-up-campaign-against-us-backed-oil-shipping/

[R15] NPR, "The United Arab Emirates is quitting OPEC oil cartel after nearly 60 years", 28 April 2026. www.npr.org/2026/04/28/nx-s1-5802735/uae-leaves-opec-oil

[R16] Khaleej Times, "UAE announces decision to withdraw from Opec, Opec+ from May 1", 28 April 2026. www.khaleejtimes.com/uae-announces-decision-to-withdraw-from-opec-opec-from-may-1

[R17] S&P Global Commodity Insights, "Factbox: UAE, OPEC's third-largest producer, charts new course outside bloc", 28 April 2026. www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/crude-oil/042826-factbox-uae-opecs-third-largest-producer-charts-new-course-outside-bloc

[R18] Australian Competition and Consumer Commission, Weekly fuel price monitoring report, 9 October 2026, prices to 7 October 2026. www.accc.gov.au/system/files/weekly-fuel-price-monitoring-report-9-october-2026.pdf

[R19] J.P. Morgan Global Research, oil price forecast page, view dated 16 July 2026. www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/commodities/oil-prices

[R20] World Bank, Commodity Markets Outlook, April 2026, executive summary (Brent average of US$86 in 2026 in the baseline). The Commodity Markets page on 14 October 2026 listed the next update as October 2026. documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099842304282633100/pdf/IDU-29bd7eb3-10b9-441a-89be-9732d149e669.pdf

[R21] International Energy Agency, Oil Market Report, September 2026, published 11 September 2026. The October report was scheduled for 14 October 2026. www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-september-2026

[R22] OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, October 2026, as reported by Newsquawk, "OPEC MOMR (Oct): 2026 demand trimmed, 2027 demand modestly increased", 13 October 2026. The OPEC report itself could not be opened. www.newsquawk.com/headlines/opec-momr-oct-2026-demand-trimmed-2027-demand-modestly-increased-supply-forecasts-modestly-increased

[R23] International Energy Forum, "Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market", 14 September 2026. www.ief.org/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market-79

[R24] Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, "Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement", 16 September 2026. www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm

[R25] Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Funds Target Range, Upper Limit, via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, series DFEDTARU, downloaded 14 October 2026. fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFEDTARU

[R26] US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index news release, August 2026, released 11 September 2026. The September release was scheduled for 14 October 2026, 8.30am US Eastern time. www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

[R27] Reserve Bank of Australia, About Monetary Policy. www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/about.html

[R28] Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Summary of Economic Projections, 16 September 2026, Table 1. www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20260916.pdf

[R29] John C. Williams, President, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, "Unwavering Dedication", University at Buffalo, 29 September 2026. www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/speeches/2026/wil260929

[R30] Philip N. Jefferson, Vice Chair, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, "The U.S. Economy and Monetary Policy", Darden School of Business, 1 October 2026. www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/jefferson20261001a.htm

[R31] Beth M. Hammack, President, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, "Trimming the Sails, Communicating My Reaction Function", 12 October 2026. www.clevelandfed.org/collections/speeches/2026/sp-20261012-trimming-the-sails-communicating-my-reaction-function

[R32] ActionForex, "Fed's Hammack Favors Quicker Hikes as Markets Bet on October Pause", 13 October 2026. The probabilities are attributed to futures markets and were not checked against CME data. actionforex.com/live-comments/657273-feds-hammack-favors-quicker-hikes-as-markets-bet-on-october-pause

[R33] Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Meeting calendars and information. www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm

[R34] Plate 02. RBA Building, Martin Place, 27 November 2008, Danausi. Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons. commons.wikimedia.org, file page

[R35] Reserve Bank of Australia, "Statement by the Monetary Policy Board, Monetary Policy Decision", media release 2026-08, 17 March 2026. www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-08.html

[R36] Reserve Bank of Australia, Monetary Policy Board meeting schedule. www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html

[R37] Savings.com.au, "Westpac tips another RBA rate hike in November", Bea Garcia, 30 September 2026, quoting Westpac chief economist Luci Ellis. www.savings.com.au/news/westpac-tips-another-rba-rate-hike-in-november

[R38] Savings.com.au, "How the big four banks reacted to fourth RBA rate hike", Bernadette Lunas, 30 September 2026. www.savings.com.au/news/how-the-big-four-banks-react-to-fourth-rba-rate-hike

[R39] Aussie, "What experts predict for the RBA's November 2026 interest rate decision", 6 October 2026. www.aussie.com.au/insights/news/expert-predictions-rba-rates/

[R40] Commonwealth Bank of Australia newsroom, "RBA raises official cash rate to 4.60% in fourth increase of 2026", 30 September 2026. www.commbank.com.au/articles/newsroom/2026/09/rba-official-cash-rate-decision-september-2026.html

[R41] Bloomberg Línea, James Attwood, "La producción de cobre en Chile se desploma 13%, su nivel más bajo en más de 15 años", 30 September 2026 (in Spanish). The INE release itself was not read. www.bloomberglinea.com/latinoamerica/chile/la-produccion-de-cobre-en-chile-se-desploma-13-su-nivel-mas-bajo-en-mas-de-15-anos/

[R42] Plate 03. Chuquicamata-Chile-2009, 22 January 2009, Pierre cb. Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons. commons.wikimedia.org, file page

[R43] SMM (Shanghai Metals Market), "Centinela unions launch strike involving 709 workers, company maintains 2026 production outlook", 8 October 2026. news.metal.com/newscontent/104144547-centinela-unions-launch-strike-involving-709-workers-company-maintains-2026-production-outlook

[R44] Polsinelli, "New Section 232 Tariffs Formalized on Copper Imports", 31 July 2025, summarising the US presidential proclamation of 30 July 2025. www.polsinelli.com/publications/new-section-232-tariffs-formalized-on-copper-imports

[R45] Tech Times, Collin Mercer, "White House Copper Tariff Stall Creates Costs, No Decision Fixes Supply Before Mid-2040s", 10 September 2026. www.techtimes.com/articles/327262/20260910/white-house-copper-tariff-stall-creates-costs-no-decision-fixes-supply-before-mid-2040s.htm

[R46] TD Economics, "Commodities Quick-Take", Marc Ercolao, 12 May 2026. economics.td.com/commodity-price-report

[R47] International Copper Study Group, Copper Market Forecast 2026 to 2027, 23 April 2026, as reported by Mining Weekly, "Global refined copper market to swing to surplus in 2026, group says". The ICSG release itself was not read. www.miningweekly.com/article/global-refined-copper-market-to-swing-to-surplus-in-2026-group-says-2026-04-23

[R48] Market Index, "2026-27 commodities outlook, Iron Ore, Copper, Uranium, Lithium and more", 6 October 2026, reporting the Australian Government's Resources and Energy Quarterly, September 2026. The Department of Industry, Science and Resources site could not be read. www.marketindex.com.au/news/2026-27-commodities-outlook-iron-ore-copper-uranium-lithium-and-more

[R49] World Gold Council, Gold Demand Trends Q2 2026, press release "Gold market shows resilience as price momentum cools in Q2", 30 July 2026. www.gold.org/news-and-events/press-releases/gold-market-shows-resilience-price-momentum-cools-q2

[R50] World Gold Council, "UK crowned in a record quarter", Gold ETF flows, September 2026, published 7 October 2026. www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-etfs-holdings-and-flows/2026/10

[R51] Reserve Bank of Australia, statistical table F4, Retail Deposit and Investment Rates, CANSTAR data, published 8 October 2026, values for September 2026. www.rba.gov.au/statistics/tables/

[R52] Fidelity, "Commodity ETFs, A guide to contango and backwardation", reprinted from ETF.com. www.fidelity.com/learning-center/investment-products/etf/commodity-etfs-contango-backwardation

[R53] Australian Securities and Investments Commission, media release 26-193MR, "ASIC warns retail investors about risky products offered by online brokers", 13 August 2026. www.asic.gov.au/about-asic/news-centre/find-a-media-release/2026-releases/26-193mr-asic-warns-retail-investors-about-risky-products-offered-by-online-brokers

Cover photo: Chuquicamata-Chile-2009, Pierre cb. Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons (commons.wikimedia.org, file page)

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