Commodity Prices in 2026, What the Global Forecasters Are Saying
Commodity prices have split three ways since early 2025. Oil and coal rose after the war in the Middle East cut Gulf supply. Copper and gold rose on demand and investment, although gold has fallen back since February 2026. Iron ore barely moved. This Samso Insight collects what nine institutions published on supply and demand this year, as forecasts or reported data, and sets each view against the price data that followed.
The International Energy Agency, OPEC and the US Energy Information Administration cover oil. The International Copper Study Group covers copper and the World Gold Council covers gold. The World Bank covers the whole commodity complex and the IMF covers the world economy, and the Australian Government's Resources and Energy Quarterly covers what it all means for Australian exports.
Each view is set against the price data published since. Where two forecasters disagree, both are shown. Where a forecast has been overtaken by events, the piece says so and gives the date it was made.
WHAT THIS PIECE COVERS 1.00 THE NINE INSTITUTIONS AND WHAT A BALANCE IS Who the nine institutions are, and what a supply and demand balance is. 2.00 THE SCOREBOARD SINCE JANUARY 2025 Six commodity prices on one chart, and the table behind it. 3.00 OIL, THE FORECASTERS DISAGREE ON DEMAND The IEA sees demand falling in 2026 and OPEC sees it growing. 4.00 COPPER, A SURPLUS FORECAST AND A RECORD PRICE Why a surplus forecast and a record price can both stand. 5.00 IRON ORE, SIMANDOU AND CHINESE STEEL New supply from Guinea against lower Chinese steel output. 6.00 GOLD, CENTRAL BANKS AGAINST INTEREST RATES Central bank buying rose while the price fell back. 7.00 COAL AND GAS, THE SWITCH BACK TO COAL How a gas shortage lifted demand for coal. 8.00 LITHIUM, DEMAND FROM STORAGE AND NO FREE PRICE SERIES Battery demand growth, and why no price is quoted. 9.00 WHERE THE FORECASTS MOVED, AND THE EFFECTS ON AUSTRALIAN PRODUCERS Four published forecasts against later data, and three effects on Australian producers. Samso's view on where prices go from here. |
A note on the vocabulary and the sources. Every technical term is explained where it first appears, and the recurring terms are collected in a vocabulary box at the back, above the references. Each source carries an identifier, [R1] to [R21]. The same identifier appears in the text where that source is used, so each figure can be traced to the document behind it. |
1.00 — THE NINE INSTITUTIONS AND WHAT A BALANCE IS
Who publishes the forecasts, and how a surplus or deficit is described
Commodity prices in 2026 have moved further and faster than several forecasts made before the war in the Middle East allowed for. The IEA describes the war as unresolved, with negotiations between the United States and Iran at an impasse [R1]. Brent crude, the main global oil price benchmark, averaged about US$71 a barrel in February and reached US$138 on 7 April. Copper reached its highest monthly average in the World Bank's records. Gold's monthly average peaked in February and has since fallen back. Iron ore barely moved.
A small group of institutions publish supply and demand forecasts or data on a fixed schedule, with their assumptions written down. This piece collects what nine of them published, mostly between April and September 2026, and sets each view against the price data that followed.
The nine are the International Energy Agency (IEA), OPEC, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the International Copper Study Group (ICSG), the World Gold Council, the World Steel Association and the Australian Government's Resources and Energy Quarterly. Most figures come from the institutions' releases and from the price series. The OPEC and ICSG figures come from press reports, because the original releases could not be opened, and the text marks where.
