Gold Fields Buys Into Kambalda, a Review of the Nickel Market in 2026

Gold Fields has agreed to buy the Kambalda nickel concentrator from BHP. The purchase raises the question of whether nickel is coming back. The 2026 average price to September is above the 2025 average, and the latest published forecast is for a deficit. The price on 8 October 2026 and the exchange stockpile do not yet show a recovery.

On 7 October 2026 BHP said it had agreed to sell the Kambalda Nickel Concentrator in Western Australia to Gold Fields, together with a package of tenements and mineralisation rights [R1]. A concentrator is a processing plant that crushes ore and separates the valuable minerals from the waste rock. The price was not disclosed. BHP expects the sale to complete during calendar 2027, subject to conditions that include regulatory approvals.

Gold Fields is a gold producer listed in Johannesburg and New York. It already owns the St Ives gold mine at Kambalda. Its statement, as reported, said gold production remains its core focus. International Mining reports that Gold Fields is evaluating the long-term use of the plant for both gold and nickel processing [R2].

The price on 8 October 2026 does not show a recovery, though the 2026 average to September is above the 2025 average [R12]. The three-month nickel price on the London Metal Exchange is the price for metal delivered in three months, and it is the one most often quoted. It was US$15,600 a tonne on 8 October 2026 [R13]. The average for May 2026 was US$18,806 a tonne [R12]. Nickel held in exchange warehouses was 284,178 tonnes on 7 October 2026, which is higher than at the end of 2025 [R13][R20].

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All share prices are as at the close of ASX trading on 8 October 2026. Global prices for nickel, gold and the Australian dollar are for the same date.

WHAT THIS PIECE COVERS

1.00 THE TRANSACTION ANNOUNCED ON 7 OCTOBER 2026 What was announced, what is included and what has not been disclosed.

2.00 KAMBALDA AND THE CONCENTRATOR The location, the history of the plant and why it has shut twice since 2018.

3.00 GOLD FIELDS AT KAMBALDA The St Ives gold mine, the Lunnon Metals shareholding, a right of pre-emption over nickel ore, power supply and the Northern Star proposal.

4.00 HOW THE NICKEL MARKET WORKS Stainless steel, batteries, the London Metal Exchange and the two kinds of nickel ore.

5.00 THE NICKEL PRICE FROM 2019 TO OCTOBER 2026 The four parts of the price line and the price on 8 October 2026.

6.00 INDONESIA AND THE ORE QUOTA How Indonesia's mining quota moved the price in 2026 and what has happened to the quota since.

7.00 STOCKPILES, DEMAND AND FORECASTS The International Nickel Study Group figures, exchange stockpiles, stainless steel and battery demand, and the published price forecasts.

8.00 THE AUSTRALIAN NICKEL INDUSTRY IN 2026 Which operations are suspended, which are running and what governments have offered.

9.00 ASX COMPANIES WITH NICKEL ASSETS The status of each company from its own ASX documents, and how their share prices have moved.

10.00 THE GOLD PRICE AT 8 OCTOBER 2026 The gold price in US and Australian dollars beside the cost Gold Fields reports for St Ives.

11.00 THE EVIDENCE FOR AND AGAINST A NICKEL RECOVERY The four facts behind the answer, the case for a recovery and the dated events to watch.

12.00 SAMSO VIEW The Samso view on the purchase and on nickel for large, mid, small and micro companies.

A NOTE ON THE VOCABULARY AND THE SOURCES

Each technical term is explained in plain English where it first appears. The same terms are collected in one box at the back, immediately above the references.

Every source has a number in square brackets, such as [R1]. The number appears in the text where that source is used, and the full entry is in the reference list at the back. Clicking a number jumps to its entry.

The nickel price is the London close for the date shown, which falls after the ASX close on the same day. Where two published sources give different figures for the same thing, both are quoted as published with the name of each source, and no attempt is made to resolve them. Where Samso reasons past what a company has said, the passage is labelled as a model.

Samso could not open the Gold Fields media release directly. Its wording is taken from the report of it by International Mining [R2]. Bank forecasts are taken from news reports of the bank notes. Samso has not read the notes. Samso read the BHP release [R1] through a text extract of the web page. Statements about how ore is mined and processed that carry no reference number are general industry knowledge and are not drawn from a cited document.

1.00 — THE TRANSACTION ANNOUNCED ON 7 OCTOBER 2026

What BHP sold and what it kept

BHP announced the sale on 7 October 2026 [R1]. The assets are the Kambalda Nickel Concentrator and what BHP called a package of tenements and mineralisation rights. A tenement is a licence from the State to explore or mine a defined area of ground. A mineralisation right is a right to one mineral on ground where another party may hold the rights to other minerals. At Kambalda it is common for one company to hold the nickel and another to hold the gold on the same lease.

BHP did not say which tenements or which rights are in the package. Samso has not found a list in any public document. The price was not disclosed either.

Plate 01 shows the plant. BHP said Gold Fields will evaluate options for the long-term use of the concentrator and will offer employment to the people directly supporting the asset [R1]. BHP will manage the plant until completion.

BHP kept the rest of its Western Australian nickel business. That business is the Mt Keith and Leinster mines, the Kalgoorlie smelter, the Kwinana refinery and the West Musgrave project. A smelter melts concentrate into nickel matte, which is an intermediate product, and a refinery turns the matte into nickel metal [R8]. BHP announced on 11 July 2024 that these operations would be suspended from October 2024, and that it would review the decision by February 2027 [R6]. The options BHP has named for that review are divestment, continued suspension, restart or closure [R1].

BHP said in July 2024 that it would spend about US$300 million a year to keep a restart possible [R6]. It had already written down the value of the nickel business in its accounts. That write-down, called an impairment, was about US$3.5 billion before tax and US$2.5 billion after tax, taken in the half year to 31 December 2023 [R7]. News reports of the Kambalda sale quote US$2.5 billion, which is the after-tax figure [R11].

The Kambalda plant is the first part of the business that BHP has agreed to sell. The plant relied on ore from other companies [R8].

2.00 — KAMBALDA AND THE CONCENTRATOR

Where Kambalda is and what the plant does

Kambalda is a mining town in the Eastern Goldfields of Western Australia, about 56 kilometres south of Kalgoorlie [R8]. Fig. 01 shows the location. The left panel places Kambalda in the State, and the right panel shows the nickel and gold deposits around the town and the salt lake beside it, Lake Lefroy.

Western Mining Corporation opened the first nickel mine in Western Australia at Kambalda in 1967, and BHP took over Western Mining in 2005 [R44]. Plate 02 shows one of the early shafts in 1969 [R30].

The nickel at Kambalda is in sulphide ore, which means the nickel is bound to sulphur in minerals such as pentlandite. Plate 03 shows a specimen [R31]. At Kambalda the sulphide ore is in narrow bodies that are mined underground. Sulphide ore elsewhere can be different. BHP describes its Mt Keith mine as a large open pit in low-grade sulphide ore [R8]. The share of metal in the rock is called the grade. Sulphide ore suits a concentrator, because the sulphide minerals can be floated off from the waste in tanks of water and air bubbles. That process is called flotation.

BHP described the concentrator in 2017 as having a nominal capacity of 1.6 million tonnes of ore a year and producing a concentrate of about 13 per cent nickel [R8]. Nominal capacity is the rated amount a plant is built to treat in a year. Wikipedia, citing a company history of Western Mining, gives 1.4 million tonnes a year by 1972 [R44]. Both figures are quoted as published.

The plant has not had a BHP mine feeding it for many years. Western Mining stopped its own mining at Kambalda in 2003 and the plant then treated ore from other companies [R44]. BHP described the feed in 2017 as ore treated for other parties and concentrate bought from them [R8].

The plant has shut twice since 2018, and both times the cause was that the mines supplying it stopped. In 2018 the last supplier closed. BHP looked at converting the plant to treat gold ore, and that plan did not proceed because no supplier of gold ore was found [R44]. The plant restarted in 2022 to treat ore from the Cassini mine. Wyloo, a private company, bought the owner of that mine in 2023. BHP said in February 2024 that Wyloo would suspend its Kambalda mines from 31 May 2024 and that the concentrator would go onto care and maintenance in June 2024 [R7]. Care and maintenance means a plant is shut but kept in working order.

3.00 — GOLD FIELDS AT KAMBALDA

What public documents show about Gold Fields at Kambalda

Gold Fields has not given a detailed reason for the purchase. Its senior vice president of operations in Australia, Craig Bradshaw, is quoted by International Mining [R2].

“These are highly strategic assets located in a region where we have operated and invested for many years, and we see significant potential to explore future opportunities.”

Craig Bradshaw, Gold Fields, as reproduced by International Mining [R2]

The same statement, as reproduced, said gold production remains the core focus of the company and that there are no changes to its operations or workforce as a result of the acquisition [R2]. The five facts below are from public documents. None of them is a statement by Gold Fields about why it agreed to buy the plant.

The St Ives gold mine and the Lefroy plant

Gold Fields owns the St Ives gold mine, which is about 20 kilometres south of Kambalda by road [R5]. St Ives produced 370,000 ounces of gold in 2025. Its processing plant, which Lunnon Metals calls the Lefroy gold plant [R4], treated 4.545 million tonnes of ore in that year against a nameplate capacity of 4.7 million tonnes a year [R5]. Nameplate capacity is the rated figure for a plant. The same filing shows the plant treated 4.817 million tonnes in 2020, so the nameplate figure is not a ceiling [R5]. Lunnon Metals gives the capacity of the same plant as 4.8 million tonnes a year [R4]. Both figures are quoted as published.

What follows is a theoretical model and Gold Fields has not published it. On the Gold Fields figures the Lefroy plant treated about 97 per cent of its nameplate capacity in 2025, which is 4.545 divided by 4.7. In plain terms, the Lefroy plant ran close to its rated figure in 2025. The 1.6 million tonnes a year figure for the Kambalda concentrator is for nickel ore and may not apply to gold ore.

A gold plant and a nickel concentrator share a front end. Both crush and grind the ore, and both need power, water and storage for tailings, which are the finely milled waste left after processing. The back end differs, because the Lefroy plant dissolves the gold out of the milled ore with a chemical solution, a step called leaching, and collects it on carbon [R5]. A nickel concentrator floats sulphide minerals. To treat gold ore, a nickel concentrator would need a leaching and carbon circuit added, along with money, time and approvals.

BHP looked at the same conversion in 2018. It did not go ahead because no supplier of gold ore was found [R44]. Gold Fields mines its own gold ore at St Ives. BHP had no gold ore of its own. The model shows only that the front end of the plant could have a use for gold.

Fig. 02 shows how close the gold and the nickel are. The Lefroy gold plant is at the top left, Gold Fields gold deposits are on three sides, and the Baker nickel deposit of Lunnon Metals is at the right.

The Gold Fields shareholding in Lunnon Metals

Lunnon Metals (ASX: LM8) holds nickel and gold ground at Kambalda. Gold Fields holds 29.61 per cent of the voting power in Lunnon Metals through its subsidiary St Ives Gold Mining Company [R3]. The Gold Fields annual filing for 2025 gives the holding as 30.5 per cent in one note and 30.2 per cent in another at 31 December 2025 [R5]. All three figures are quoted as published.

Lunnon Metals reports a nickel Mineral Resource at its Foster and Baker deposits of more than 3 million tonnes at 3.0 per cent nickel, for more than 95,000 tonnes of contained nickel [R3]. Contained nickel is the tonnes of ore multiplied by the grade. It is metal in the ground, before any losses in mining and processing. A Mineral Resource is an estimate of metal in the ground that has reasonable prospects of being mined at a profit one day. It is reported under the JORC Code, which is the Australian standard for public reporting of these estimates. A resource is split into three levels of confidence. Measured is the highest, Indicated is the middle and Inferred is the lowest. Only Measured and Indicated material can be converted into an Ore Reserve.

The Baker deposit on its own is 1,030,000 tonnes at 3.3 per cent nickel. Of that, 110,000 tonnes is Measured, 622,000 tonnes is Indicated and 298,000 tonnes is Inferred [R3]. Lunnon Metals has not reported an Ore Reserve for nickel [R4]. An Ore Reserve is the part of a resource that a study has shown can be mined at a profit. The absence of one means the economics have not yet been proven to that standard.

The right of pre-emption over Lunnon Metals nickel ore

The Lunnon Metals annual report says that BHP Nickel West retains a right of pre-emption over the sale of nickel ore or nickel products from Foster and Baker [R4]. A right of pre-emption is a right to be offered something before anyone else. A scoping study is the first and least detailed level of mining study. The same report says the company's scoping study assumes its ore would be treated at the Kambalda concentrator under that right, or by a later owner of the plant who holds the right [R4].

BHP and Gold Fields have not said whether this right is part of the package being sold. If it is, Gold Fields would own the plant, would hold the first right over nickel from Foster and Baker, and would hold 29.61 per cent of the company that owns them, as its largest shareholder [R3]. This is Samso's observation from the documents, and neither company has confirmed it.

Lunnon Metals said on 7 October 2026 that it looks forward to investigating the opportunities from the change of ownership. It said it will consider whether its scoping study needs updating once the details are understood [R3].

Power supply at St Ives

Gold Fields states that St Ives buys its electricity under a contract with BHP Nickel West [R5]. The same filing describes a wind and solar project at St Ives. It is 42 megawatts of wind and 35 megawatts of solar. It was under construction at the date of the filing and is planned to supply about 73 per cent of the site's power [R5]. On this filing, Gold Fields relies on BHP for power at St Ives.

The proposal for Northern Star

Gold Fields made a proposal in September 2026 to buy Northern Star Resources (ASX: NST), a gold producer listed on the ASX. The offer was in Gold Fields shares and cash, and Gold Fields valued it at A$27.00 for each Northern Star share [R9]. Northern Star put the value of the whole offer at A$38.7 billion, based on the Gold Fields share price on 11 September [R10]. Northern Star's board rejected it and said so publicly on 28 September 2026 [R10].

Bloomberg has reported that Gold Fields is considering a higher offer with more cash [R11]. Gold Fields has not confirmed that. Northern Star owns the South Kalgoorlie Operations, 35 kilometres south of Kalgoorlie. They include a processing plant of up to 1.2 million tonnes a year that has been on care and maintenance since the September 2023 quarter [R50].

Neither company has linked the Kambalda purchase to the Northern Star proposal, and the Gold Fields filing on the proposal does not mention Kambalda [R9]. Samso's observation is that both involve gold assets and processing plant in the same district.

THE CASE THAT THE PURCHASE IS ABOUT NICKEL

The nickel reading of the purchase has some support. The managing director of Lunnon Metals told the ABC in January 2026 that companies around Kambalda hold about 600,000 tonnes of nickel that has no plant to go to [R40]. A plant owner would be in a position to treat that nickel if the price came back and the mines reopened.

The same report said a restart of the Foster mine could cost up to A$60 million and that no early revival was expected [R40]. The same report said Wyloo had no restart date for its Kambalda mines [R40]. S&P Global reported in April 2026 that Wyloo was working toward a restart [R32].

4.00 — HOW THE NICKEL MARKET WORKS

What nickel is used for and how its price is set

Most nickel goes into stainless steel. ING, a bank, puts stainless steel at more than 60 per cent of nickel use [R21]. The second largest use is rechargeable batteries, where nickel is part of some battery types and absent from others.

The price is set on the London Metal Exchange, a market where metal is bought and sold for delivery from approved warehouses. Two prices are quoted. The cash price is for metal delivered now. The three-month price is for metal delivered in three months.

Nickel comes from two kinds of ore, sulphide and laterite. Sulphide ore, described in section 2.00, is mined in Australia, Canada and Russia. Laterite ore is a weathered, clay-rich ore found near the surface. Most of it is in tropical countries such as Indonesia and the Philippines. Western Australia has laterite too, at Murrin Murrin and at the Ardea Resources project (sections 8.00 and 9.00). Laterite deposits are large. The Ardea Resources resource in section 9.00 is 854 million tonnes at 0.71 per cent nickel.

For most of the industry's history laterite was the harder ore to treat. Over the past decade Chinese companies built plants in Indonesia that turn laterite into two products. One is nickel pig iron, a crude iron and nickel alloy that goes into stainless steel. The other is an intermediate product for batteries, made by dissolving the ore in acid under heat and pressure. That second process is called high-pressure acid leaching.

The result was a large new supply of nickel from Indonesia. The nickel price fell from 2023 (section 5.00), and the Australian suspensions listed in section 8.00 followed.

5.00 — THE NICKEL PRICE FROM 2019 TO OCTOBER 2026

The nickel price rise in early 2026 and the fall since May

Fig. 03 is the monthly average nickel price since January 2019.

The line has four parts. From 2019 to early 2022 the price rose, and it peaked at a monthly average of US$33,924 a tonne in March 2022 [R12]. It then fell to late 2025 as Indonesian supply grew. The annual average was US$21,521 in 2023, US$16,814 in 2024 and US$15,162 in 2025. The lowest monthly average was November 2025 at US$14,671.

The price was lower on single days in April 2025. S&P Global reported the three-month price at US$14,084 and called it a low of nearly five years [R41].

In the third part the monthly average rose to US$17,769 in January 2026 and reached US$18,806 in May 2026. The fourth part is the fall since May. The September 2026 average was US$16,324 [R12]. Trading Economics reported the price on 1 October 2026 as the lowest since December 2025 [R14].

The three-month price on 8 October 2026 was US$15,600 a tonne and the cash price was US$15,415, as reported by The Vault Report, a price data site [R13]. That three-month price is about 17 per cent below the May average. Set against the rise from the December 2025 average of US$14,884 to the May average, about 82 per cent of the rise has been given back. Both figures are Samso arithmetic, and they compare one day's price with monthly averages, which is a rough comparison.

The average for the first nine months of 2026 was US$17,344, which is Samso's simple average of the World Bank monthly figures [R12]. That is higher than the 2025 average. A producer selling at the average price through 2026 has received a higher price than in 2025. The price on 8 October is back near where 2025 ended.

6.00 — INDONESIA AND THE ORE QUOTA

Indonesia's share of nickel mining and its ore quota

Fig. 04 shows mine production by country. Indonesia supplies most of the world's mined nickel.

The United States Geological Survey estimates that Indonesia mined 2.6 million tonnes of nickel in 2025 out of a world total of 3.9 million tonnes [R15]. That is 67 per cent on Samso's arithmetic. The second largest producer, the Philippines, mined 270,000 tonnes. Australia mined an estimated 45,000 tonnes, down from 98,000 tonnes in 2024.

Indonesia controls its output through an annual mining quota. Each mine applies to the government for approval of the amount of ore it may dig in the year. The quota is counted in tonnes of ore. The production figures above are in tonnes of nickel contained in the ore, so the two are on different scales.

The quota for 2025 was 379 million tonnes [R22][R27]. In December 2025 the energy minister, Bahlil Lahadalia, said production would be cut in 2026 to support the price [R41]. The 2026 quota was then set well below the 2025 figure. Reuters and Antara, the Indonesian news agency, report it as 250 to 260 million tonnes [R22][R27]. Argus, a price reporting agency, reports it as 260 to 270 million tonnes [R28]. Both ranges are quoted as published.

Argus put the ore needed by Indonesian smelters at about 330 million tonnes [R28]. Both quota ranges are below that figure. Most of the price rise came between December 2025 and January 2026, after the energy minister said production would be cut [R41][R12]. The monthly average then reached US$18,806 in May as the lower quota was reported [R22][R28]. Trading Economics reports that ore shipped from the Philippines has helped Indonesian smelters keep up their feed [R14].

Quota revisions have been approved since, and the volumes have not been disclosed. In late June 2026 there were reports of a rise to about 360 million tonnes, which were not confirmed [R29]. On 10 July Tri Winarno, the director general of minerals and coal at the energy ministry, said there would be no increase for nickel, except to supply smelters that were short of ore [R27]. On 6 August Argus reported that the price had fallen below US$17,000 on expectations that the quota of one large operation had more than trebled, and said the details were unconfirmed [R28]. On 19 August about a dozen nickel companies had quota revisions approved, with the volumes not disclosed [R33]. Samso has not found a published total for the revised quota.

Indonesia has also raised its royalties on nickel and changed the formula that sets the benchmark ore price [R41][R24]. The 2026 price rise followed a supply decision by the Indonesian government, which can revise it. The 2026 quota is still below the 2025 quota on every published figure [R22][R28].

7.00 — STOCKPILES, DEMAND AND FORECASTS

The supply balance, warehouse stocks, demand and forecasts

The International Nickel Study Group is a body of governments that publishes production and usage figures twice a year. Fig. 05 shows its figures for the gap between the two. The forecast of a deficit in 2026 is the main published evidence for a recovery.

The world produced more nickel than it used in 2023, 2024 and 2025. The surplus in 2025 was 283,000 tonnes [R16]. In October 2025 the group forecast a surplus of 261,000 tonnes for 2026 [R17]. In April 2026 it forecast a deficit of 32,000 tonnes, because it cut its forecast of production by 370,000 tonnes after the Indonesian quota was set [R16].

The group qualified its forecast. Its April release said the Indonesian quota remains open to upward revision and acknowledged uncertainty about Indonesian output [R16]. ING wrote on 30 June that the projected deficit could disappear quickly if higher quotas lifted output [R29]. A deficit of 32,000 tonnes is less than 1 per cent of the group's forecast production of 3.7 million tonnes, on Samso's arithmetic [R16]. The group meets again in the week of 12 October 2026 and a new forecast should follow.

Fig. 06 shows the stockpile, which is a count of metal on the dates shown.

Nickel in London Metal Exchange warehouses was 231,504 tonnes on 30 September 2025 and 254,364 tonnes on 28 November 2025 [R19]. It was about 255,000 tonnes at the end of 2025 [R20]. It was 278,898 tonnes on 24 September 2026, counting metal on warrant, which is metal available for delivery [R14]. It was 284,178 tonnes on 7 October 2026 [R13]. These figures are from four secondary reports and may not be counted the same way. Their direction is the same in every report. If the world were using more nickel than it produced in 2026, the stockpile would usually be expected to fall. It has risen by about 29,000 tonnes since the end of 2025, on Samso's arithmetic. The exchange figure counts refined metal only, so it is a partial measure of the market.

ING reported in December 2025 that metal made in China had risen to 70 per cent of the nickel available in exchange warehouses [R21].

World stainless steel production was 32.964 million tonnes in the first half of 2026, up 5.0 per cent on a year earlier [R42]. That is growth in the main use. In batteries, the Chinese market has moved to a battery type called lithium iron phosphate, which contains no nickel. In May 2026 that type was 81.3 per cent of Chinese battery production and the nickel-bearing type was 18.6 per cent, on Chinese industry figures reported by S&P Global [R24].

Fig. 07 sets the published forecasts beside the actual price. Forecasts of the 2026 average ranged from US$15,250 by ING in December 2025 to US$18,500 by Goldman Sachs in a note reported in May 2026 [R21][R23]. The World Bank forecast US$17,000 for 2026 and US$17,500 for 2027 in April [R18]. The others are in the chart with their sources [R25][R26][R24].

The price on 8 October 2026 is below every forecast in the chart except ING's. Goldman Sachs in February also expected the price to end 2026 at about US$15,500, with a surplus of 191,000 tonnes for the year [R22]. Macquarie said in March that the market could move into deficit and that it saw a floor forming at US$17,000 to US$18,000 [R22]. The price is now below that range.

8.00 — THE AUSTRALIAN NICKEL INDUSTRY IN 2026

Australian nickel operations and their status

The United States Geological Survey estimates that Australian nickel mine production fell by 54 per cent in 2025, to 45,000 tonnes [R15]. Table 01 lists the main operations and their status from company documents and, where marked, from news reports.

Table 01 shows two operating mines. One of them, Nova, is expected to reach the end of its mine life in the December quarter of 2026 [R34]. Of the operations in Table 01, only Murrin Murrin would then be running, and it treats laterite ore.

Governments have offered support. The Australian Government added nickel to its Critical Minerals List on 16 February 2024, which opens access to federal financing [R43]. The Western Australian Government offered interest-free loans to nickel miners in a statement of 1 April 2026, from a pool of A$15 million. S&P Global reports that the loans are free of repayments until 1 July 2028, or until the nickel price is above 22,000 dollars a tonne for two quarters in a row [R32]. The report as read by Samso does not say which dollar is meant.

Samso has not found an announcement of a nickel mine restart in Australia in 2026 in the documents Samso reviewed. That review covered the companies in section 9.00 and the news reports in the reference list. It was not a search of every ASX announcement.

9.00 — ASX COMPANIES WITH NICKEL ASSETS

The status of eleven ASX-listed companies with nickel assets

Table 02 lists eleven ASX-listed companies with nickel assets. The facts come from each company's ASX documents. A company with a Mineral Resource is still exploring or studying its ground unless the table says it is producing. Each contained nickel figure is an in-ground estimate made by that company at its cut-off grade, which is the lowest grade it counts. The figures are not comparable with each other.

The Kambalda district

Lunnon Metals is the company closest to the transaction. Its nickel work is on hold and its activity is in gold. It mined the Lady Herial open pit from January to August 2026 and sold the ore to the Gold Fields Lefroy plant under an ore purchase agreement [R4]. It had A$22.2 million in cash at 30 June 2026 and has budgeted 43,000 metres of drilling for the 2027 financial year [R4].

Lunnon Metals published a scoping study on Foster and Baker on 21 July 2025. The Lunnon Metals annual report says the study applied a nickel price of A$23,000 a tonne [R4]. Samso has not read the study itself and has relied on the annual report and a press report of the study [R46]. The three-month price of US$15,600 on 8 October 2026 converts to about A$22,401 a tonne at the 8 October exchange rate of 0.6964 US dollars to the Australian dollar, which is Samso arithmetic. That is below the A$23,000 used in the study.

WIN Metals holds the Mt Edwards nickel project about 30 kilometres south-west of Kambalda, with a resource of 12.66 million tonnes at 1.43 per cent nickel at 30 June 2026. Its focus is the restart of the Radio gold mine. On 28 September 2026 it announced a A$9 million sale of tenements to Astral Resources, a gold developer, and said it keeps the large majority of its nickel resource [R39].

Estrella Resources agreed on 6 October 2026 to sell its Spargoville nickel rights to the same buyer for 20 million Astral shares [R45]. Westgold Resources mines gold at Beta Hunt, at Kambalda, where it also reports a nickel resource [R49]. Lefroy Exploration holds the small, high-grade Goodyear nickel deposit and is working on gold [R48].

Samso's observation from these documents is that two holders agreed to sell nickel rights or tenements to one gold developer, Astral Resources, in the fortnight before the Gold Fields purchase was announced [R39][R45]. Two sales are a small sample.

The larger companies

IGO produced 15,304 tonnes of nickel at Nova in the 2026 financial year. It expects mining there to end in the December quarter of 2026 and has agreed to sell the site to a subsidiary of Global Lithium Resources [R34]. Its Cosmos project stayed on care and maintenance, and it sold Forrestania. On its statements IGO will have no operating nickel mine once Nova finishes.

Nickel Industries mines and processes nickel in Indonesia, so it works under the Indonesian quota. It reported 62,019 tonnes of nickel for the half year to 30 June 2026. The quota for its Hengjaya mine was lifted from 9.0 million to 14.3 million wet tonnes for 2026 [R35]. Wet tonnes count the ore with the water in it. It reported on 15 September 2026 that the start-up of its new acid leaching plant was being held back by dry conditions [R35].

Centaurus Metals is working toward a decision to build the Jaguar nickel sulphide project in Brazil. On 2 October 2026 it signed a power connection contract and said it was at an advanced stage of negotiating further sales agreements and funding [R36]. It has not announced a final investment decision, which is the board's commitment to spend the money and build.

Chalice Mining is studying the Gonneville project north-east of Perth. Its Ore Reserve is 260 million tonnes, reported at 0.86 grams a tonne of palladium, platinum and gold combined. The same reserve grades 0.16 per cent nickel, for 400,000 tonnes of contained nickel. Chalice Mining describes palladium, nickel and copper as co-products, meaning each is a main product. The feasibility study is due in the second half of 2027 [R37].

Ardea Resources holds a laterite resource north-west of Kalgoorlie of 854 million tonnes at 0.71 per cent nickel. It is completing a definitive feasibility study, the most detailed level of study, with Sumitomo Metal Mining and Mitsubishi Development. Ardea Resources said in July that the final report would run past its 30 June 2026 date and that it would update the market before the end of October 2026 [R38].

Share prices

Fig. 08 shows the change in share price over twelve months for eight of the eleven companies. A recovery in a commodity usually shows in the shares of the companies that depend on it. BHP and IGO rose, and neither depends on nickel. Nickel Industries and Lunnon Metals were close to flat. Centaurus Metals, Ardea Resources, WIN Metals and Chalice Mining fell [R47].

A share price moves for many reasons. Chalice Mining reports its reserve on palladium, platinum and gold, and WIN Metals has turned to gold, so the chart is a rough guide.

Of the eight companies charted, Lunnon Metals shares moved the most on the day of the announcement. They closed at 30.0 cents on 6 October 2026, 33.5 cents on 7 October and 31.5 cents on 8 October [R47]. The rise on 7 October was about 12 per cent, on Samso's arithmetic. Apart from BHP, Lunnon Metals was the only one of the eleven companies that made a public statement about the sale in the documents Samso reviewed.

10.00 — THE GOLD PRICE AT 8 OCTOBER 2026

The gold price and the St Ives cost

Gold Fields is a gold company, so the gold price bears on what it buys. Fig. 09 shows the gold price over two years in US dollars and in Australian dollars. The Australian dollar price is the one an Australian gold mine is paid.

Gold futures, which are contracts for later delivery, on the COMEX exchange in New York closed at US$4,157 an ounce on 8 October 2026. At an exchange rate of 0.6964 US dollars to the Australian dollar that is A$5,969 an ounce [R47]. The high of the past two years was US$5,318 on 29 January 2026 and A$7,581 on 28 January 2026. A year earlier, on 8 October 2025, the price was US$4,070 and A$6,186. Over the year the US dollar price is up 2.1 per cent and the Australian dollar price is down 3.5 per cent, because the Australian dollar has strengthened.

Gold Fields reported an all-in cost at St Ives of A$3,352 an ounce for 2025 [R5]. All-in cost is the company's measure of everything it spends to produce an ounce, including the capital needed to keep the mine going. The price on 8 October 2026 is A$2,617 an ounce above that cost. This is Samso arithmetic, and it sets a 2025 cost against a 2026 price. The same filing says Gold Fields expects a higher cost for 2026 [R5].

A wide gap between price and cost makes processing capacity more useful to a gold miner. Ore that was too low in grade to treat at a lower gold price can pay its way at a higher one, and that ore needs a plant.

Samso has written about the gold price in The Gold Question of 21 June 2026 and The Big Consolidation of 8 July 2026. Samso's view on the gold price range is set out in those two Insights and is not changed here.

11.00 — THE EVIDENCE FOR AND AGAINST A NICKEL RECOVERY

The evidence on a nickel recovery at 8 October 2026

The purchase of the Kambalda concentrator is not, on its own, evidence of a nickel recovery. Gold Fields has said gold is its core focus, and it is reported to be evaluating the plant for both gold and nickel processing [R2]. The plant is at Kambalda and St Ives is about 20 kilometres south of the town by road. Two recent sales of tenements or nickel rights near Kambalda went to a gold developer [R5][R39][R45].

The price and the stockpile at 8 October 2026 do not show a recovery. Four facts point that way. The case for a recovery follows them.

1. The price on 8 October 2026 was about 17 per cent below the May 2026 average and close to where 2025 ended [R12][R13].

2. Exchange stockpiles are higher than at the start of 2026 [R13][R20].

3. The rise early in the year followed Indonesia's statement that production would be cut, and then a lower quota. About a dozen companies have since had revisions approved, with the volumes not disclosed [R41][R27][R33].

4. No Australian nickel mine restart has been announced in the documents Samso reviewed, and over twelve months Nickel Industries shares were close to flat while Centaurus Metals and Ardea Resources fell [R47]. A share price moves for many reasons, so this is a rough guide.

THE CASE FOR A RECOVERY

Indonesia now limits its output through the quota. The 2026 quota is still below the 2025 quota of 379 million tonnes on every published figure [R22][R28]. Its energy minister said in December 2025 that production would be cut to support the price [R41].

The 2026 average price to September was above the 2025 average [R12]. Stainless steel production grew 5.0 per cent in the first half of 2026 [R42]. The International Nickel Study Group's most recent published forecast is for a deficit in 2026, after surpluses in each of the three years before it [R16].

Argus put the ore needed by Indonesian smelters at about 330 million tonnes, which is above either published quota figure [R28]. On 10 July the energy ministry said there would be no general increase for nickel [R27].

In Australia, nickel mines have been closing since 2024 [R6][R7]. Most Australian capacity is shut and would take time to restart, so Australian supply would be slow to respond if the quota holds into 2027. S&P Global reported in April 2026 that Wyloo was working toward a restart, and the Western Australian Government has offered loans to nickel miners [R32].

The dated events below will test both cases.

1. The International Nickel Study Group meets in the week of 12 October 2026 and should publish a new forecast [R16].

2. Ardea Resources has said it will update the market on its feasibility study before the end of October 2026 [R38].

3. Indonesia will set its 2027 mining quota. Reports of the 2026 quota figures appeared in February 2026 [R22][R28].

4. BHP will review the rest of its Western Australian nickel business by February 2027 [R1].

5. The Kambalda sale is expected to complete in calendar 2027, and Gold Fields has said it will assess the plant before deciding its use [R1][R2].

12.00 — SAMSO VIEW

The Samso view on the purchase and on nickel

SAMSO VIEW

In our industry we like to say that the best place to find a mine is next to a mine. I think the same is true of a mill. A plant that is already built and already next door is worth a lot more to the neighbour than to anyone else, and Gold Fields is the neighbour.

So my reading is that this is a gold decision with a nickel option attached. Gold Fields gets a plant, tenements and mineral rights at Kambalda while BHP is a willing seller. If nickel comes back, Gold Fields will own the nickel concentrator at Kambalda. If it does not, the company still has infrastructure it can put to work for gold. That is my opinion, and Gold Fields has not said it.

On nickel itself, I do not see a resurgence yet. What we had in the first half of 2026 was Indonesia tightening the tap, and the price responded. Since then some quota revisions have been approved, the stockpile has kept growing and the price has given most of it back. In my opinion the nickel price is now a policy price set in Jakarta, and the quota tells me more than the demand does.

For the large ASX companies, nickel is a small line. BHP has now agreed to sell one nickel asset on its own, and the rest is under review. For the mid-sized companies, IGO is close to having no nickel mine at all, and Nickel Industries is the one that lives inside the Indonesian system, with the benefits and the risks that come with that.

For the small companies around Kambalda, the important change is that the plant will have an owner that says it will assess how to use it. Lunnon Metals is the company most directly affected, because its largest shareholder is buying the mill. For the micro explorers that hold nickel ground, the market is telling them to work on their gold, and several already are.

The question I would leave with investors is this. If the owner of the nickel plant at Kambalda is a gold company, who decides when Kambalda nickel is mined again, the nickel price or the gold price?

THE VOCABULARY, IN PLAIN ENGLISH

Concentrator

A plant that crushes ore and separates the metal-bearing minerals from the waste rock. The product is called concentrate.

Smelter and refinery

A smelter melts concentrate into nickel matte, an intermediate product. A refinery turns the matte into nickel metal.

Care and maintenance

A mine or plant that is shut but kept in working order so it can restart.

Tenement

A licence from the State to explore or mine a defined area of ground.

Mineralisation right

A right to one mineral on ground where someone else may hold the rights to other minerals.

Right of pre-emption

A right to be offered something before anyone else.

Impairment

A write-down in a company's accounts of the value it carries for an asset.

Sulphide ore

Ore in which the metal is bound to sulphur. Kambalda nickel is sulphide ore, mined underground.

Nominal and nameplate capacity

The rated amount a plant is built to treat in a year. A plant can treat more or less than this.

Tailings

The finely milled waste left after a plant has taken the valuable minerals out of the ore.

Laterite ore

A weathered, clay-rich ore found near the surface, mostly in tropical countries. Most Indonesian nickel is laterite.

Grade

The share of metal in the rock, given as a percentage for nickel and as grams a tonne for gold.

Flotation and leaching

Flotation separates sulphide minerals in tanks of water and air bubbles. Leaching dissolves metal out of ore with a chemical solution.

Nickel pig iron

A crude alloy of iron and nickel made from laterite ore and used to make stainless steel.

High-pressure acid leaching

A process that dissolves laterite ore in acid under heat and pressure to make a nickel product for batteries.

London Metal Exchange

The market where the world nickel price is set. The cash price is for delivery now and the three-month price is for delivery in three months.

Surplus and deficit

A surplus means more metal was produced than used in a year. A deficit means less was produced than used.

The Indonesian mining quota and wet tonnes

The quota is the annual approval Indonesia gives each mine for the amount of ore it may dig. Wet tonnes count the ore with the water in it.

Mineral Resource and Ore Reserve

A Mineral Resource is an estimate of metal in the ground with reasonable prospects of being mined at a profit one day. An Ore Reserve is the part a study has shown can be mined at a profit.

Contained nickel and cut-off grade

Contained nickel is the tonnes of ore multiplied by the grade, before any losses in mining and processing. The cut-off grade is the lowest grade a company counts in its estimate.

JORC Code

The Australian standard for reporting resources and reserves. Measured, Indicated and Inferred are its three levels of confidence, from highest to lowest. Only Measured and Indicated material can become a reserve.

Scoping study and feasibility study

Levels of mining study. A scoping study is the first and least detailed. A definitive feasibility study is the most detailed.

Final investment decision

A board's commitment to spend the money and build a project.

All-in cost

A gold company's measure of everything it spends to produce an ounce, including the capital needed to keep the mine going.

References and sources

Each entry carries the number used in the text. Plates 01 to 03 and Figs 01 and 02 are reproduced from the sources named in their captions. Figs 03 to 09 are original Samso illustrations of sourced data. Market prices are stated at their dates and are refreshed before publication. Entries marked as press reports or secondary sources have not been checked against a primary document. The cover photograph is credited at [R51].

[R1] BHP, media release, "BHP and Gold Fields agree on divestment of Kambalda Nickel Concentrator", 7 October 2026. www.bhp.com/news/media-centre/releases/2026/10/bhp-kambalda-nickel-concentrator

[R2] International Mining, "BHP agrees to sell Kambalda nickel concentrator to Gold Fields", 7 October 2026. Used for the Gold Fields statement of the same date, which Samso could not open directly. im-mining.com/2026/10/07/bhp-agrees-to-sell-kambalda-nickel-concentrator-to-gold-fields/

[R3] Lunnon Metals Limited, ASX announcement, "BHP Reports Kambalda Nickel Concentrator Transaction", 7 October 2026. wcsecure.weblink.com.au/clients/lunnonmetals/headline.aspx?headlineid=61348080

[R4] Lunnon Metals Limited, Annual Report 2026, lodged with the ASX on 25 September 2026. wcsecure.weblink.com.au/clients/lunnonmetals/headline.aspx?headlineid=61345780

[R5] Gold Fields Limited, Form 20-F for the year ended 31 December 2025, United States Securities and Exchange Commission. www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1172724/000162828026021904/gfi-20251231.htm

[R6] BHP, media release, "Western Australia Nickel to temporarily suspend operations", 11 July 2024. www.bhp.com/news/media-centre/releases/2024/07/western-australia-nickel-to-temporarily-suspend-operations

[R7] BHP, media release, "Half year 2024 exceptional items update", 15 February 2024. www.bhp.com/news/media-centre/releases/2024/02/half-year-2024-exceptional-items-update

[R8] BHP, Form 20-F for the 2017 financial year, United States Securities and Exchange Commission. www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000811809/000119312517297000/d440935d20f.htm

[R9] Gold Fields Limited, Form 6-K, proposal for Northern Star Resources, 28 September 2026, United States Securities and Exchange Commission. www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001172724/000162828026063642/finalgoldfieldsproposalf.htm

[R10] Northern Star Resources Limited, ASX announcement on the Gold Fields proposal, 28 September 2026. announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20260928/pdf/074l5nsn2s3xjy.pdf

[R11] Bloomberg, as republished by Mining.com, "BHP sells shuttered Australian nickel plant to Gold Fields", 6 October 2026, and "Gold Fields said to weigh sweetening Northern Star bid with cash", 29 September 2026. Press reports. The first report carries the date of 6 October, which is the United States date. www.mining.com/web/bhp-sells-shuttered-australian-nickel-plant-to-gold-fields

[R12] World Bank, Commodity Price Data (the Pink Sheet), monthly historical data file, updated 2 October 2026. thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/74e8be41ceb20fa0da750cda2f6b9e4e-0050012026/related/CMO-Historical-Data-Monthly.xlsx

[R13] The Vault Report, London Metal Exchange nickel prices and stocks page, read 9 October 2026. A third-party data site. Samso has not checked it against the exchange. thevaultreport.com/lme/nickel

[R14] Trading Economics, nickel commodity page and news stream, read 9 October 2026. tradingeconomics.com/commodity/nickel

[R15] United States Geological Survey, Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026, nickel chapter, February 2026. pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026-nickel.pdf

[R16] International Nickel Study Group, press release, 22 April 2026. insg.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/pressrel_INSG-Press-Release-April_2026-bnjjkmn7jka88.pdf

[R17] International Nickel Study Group, press release, 7 October 2025. insg.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/pressrel_INSG-Press-Release-October_2025-nd782v78.pdf

[R18] World Bank, Commodity Markets Outlook, April 2026 forecasts table. thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/f3138644a1e8e2bb631399ae11d6c408-0050012026/related/CMO-April-2026-Forecasts.pdf

[R19] Investing News Network, as published by Nasdaq, "Nickel Price 2025 Year-End Review", 19 December 2025. www.nasdaq.com/articles/nickel-price-2025-year-end-review

[R20] Metalurgika, "Nickel Price 2026" article on the Indonesian ore quota and exchange stocks, October 2026. A secondary source. metalurgika.com/en/nickel-price-2026-indonesia-quota/

[R21] ING Think, "Nickel still capped by surplus", 8 December 2025. think.ing.com/articles/nickel-still-capped-by-surplus/

[R22] Reuters, as republished by OE Digital, "Goldman Macquarie raises average nickel price forecasts for 2026 on tighter Indonesian supplies", 4 February 2026, and Mining.com, "Nickel market could turn deficit due to Indonesia quota, says Macquarie", 11 March 2026. Press reports of bank notes. energynews.oedigital.com/mineral-resources/2026/02/04/goldman-macquarie-raises-average-nickel-price-forecasts-for-2026-on-tighter-indonesian-supplies

[R23] Reuters, as published by TradingView, "Goldman Sachs raises 2026 average nickel price forecast". The page is undated. A secondary source dates the note to about 11 May 2026. www.tradingview.com

[R24] S&P Global, as republished by Hellenic Shipping News, "TRADE REVIEW" of the Asian nickel market for the third quarter, July 2026. www.hellenicshippingnews.com/?p=1140965

[R25] Shanghai Metals Market, nickel market flash on the BMI forecast for 2026, 21 April 2026. news.metal.com/newscontent/103867465-SMM-Nickel-Market-Flash-BMI-Raises-2026-Nickel-Price-Forecast-to-16600t-on-Policy-and-Supply-Risks

[R26] TradingPedia, "Nickel Forecast Raised as Market Surplus Narrow", 9 July 2026. A secondary report of a Bernstein note. www.tradingpedia.com/2026/07/09/nickel-forecast-raised-as-market-surplus-narrow/

[R27] ANTARA News, "Indonesia limits nickel quota expansion to support global prices", 11 July 2026. en.antaranews.com/news/422261/indonesia-limits-nickel-quota-expansion-to-support-global-prices

[R28] Argus Media, "Indonesia to cut nickel mining quota in 2026", 11 February 2026, and "LME nickel prices fall on expectations of higher supply", 6 August 2026. www.argusmedia.com/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2787275-indonesia-to-cut-nickel-mining-quota-in-2026

[R29] ING Think, "Indonesia's reported quota rethink caps nickel rally", 30 June 2026. think.ing.com/articles/indonesia-caps-nickels-rally-with-a-quota-rethink/

[R30] Wilford Peloquin, photograph, "69-1400 Kambalda, Australia 1969", Wikimedia Commons, licence CC BY 2.0. commons.wikimedia.org

[R31] John Sobolewski, photograph, "Pentlandite - Kambalda, Coolgardie Shire, Western Australia", Wikimedia Commons from Mindat, licence CC BY 3.0. commons.wikimedia.org

[R32] S&P Global, report on Western Australian interest-free loans for nickel mines, 2 April 2026. spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/metals/040226-western-australia-offers-interest-free-loans-to-revive-nickel-mines

[R33] Mysteel, flash report on approvals of 2026 RKAB revisions for nickel and coal, 20 August 2026. www.mysteel.net/news/5137348-flash-indonesias-esdm-approves-2026-rkab-revisions-for-nickel-and-coal

[R34] IGO Limited, June 2026 Quarterly Activities Report, lodged with the ASX on 28 July 2026, and FY26 results, lodged 27 August 2026. announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20260728/pdf/0723kqz5668r86.pdf

[R35] Nickel Industries Limited, Half Year Financial Report to 30 June 2026, lodged with the ASX on 26 August 2026, and "Operating Update", lodged 15 September 2026. ASX document keys 2924-03126291-2A1692196 and 2924-03135460-2A1697137. www.nickelindustries.com

[R36] Centaurus Metals Limited, "Power Transmission System Contract for Jaguar Executed", lodged with the ASX on 2 October 2026, and Half Year Accounts, lodged 10 September 2026. ASX document keys 2924-03143650-6A1347374 and 2924-03134240-6A1343269. www.centaurus.com.au

[R37] Chalice Mining Limited, Annual Report 2026, lodged with the ASX on 29 September 2026. announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20260929/pdf/074p88tsz6jx5b.pdf

[R38] Ardea Resources Limited, June 2026 Quarterly Report, lodged with the ASX on 23 July 2026. ASX document key 2924-03113413-6A1335013. ardearesources.com.au

[R39] WIN Metals Limited, Financial Report to 30 June 2026, lodged with the ASX on 30 September 2026, and announcements of 28 September and 6 October 2026 on the tenure sale to Astral Resources. ASX document key 2924-03142635-6A1346917. www.asx.com.au/markets/company/WIN

[R40] ABC News, report on Kambalda and its nickel industry, 31 January 2026. A press report. www.abc.net.au/news/2026-01-31/kambalda-discovery-led-to-australias-first-nickel-mine/106159740

[R41] S&P Global, "Indonesia navigates nickel market with output cuts, policy shifts", 29 December 2025. www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/metals/122925-indonesia-navigates-nickel-market-with-output-cuts-policy-shifts

[R42] worldstainless, stainless steel melt shop production for the first half of 2026, release of 27 August 2026. worldstainless.org/?p=5858

[R43] Engineering News, "Australia places nickel on critical minerals list", 16 February 2024. www.engineeringnews.co.za/article/australia-places-nickel-on-critical-minerals-list-2024-02-16

[R44] Wikipedia, "Kambalda Nickel Operations", read 9 October 2026. A secondary source used for the history of the plant. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kambalda_Nickel_Operations

[R45] Estrella Resources Limited, "Divestment of Nickel Rights", lodged with the ASX on 6 October 2026. ASX document key 2924-03144592-6A1347786. www.estrellaresources.com.au

[R46] Engineering News, report on the Lunnon Metals scoping study, 21 July 2025. A press report. www.engineeringnews.co.za/article/lunnon-flags-price-linked-potential-in-wa-nickel-study-2025-07-21

[R47] Yahoo Finance, daily closing prices for ASX shares, COMEX gold futures and the Australian dollar, read 9 October 2026. A data vendor. Samso has not checked it against the exchanges. finance.yahoo.com

[R48] Lefroy Exploration Limited, Annual Report 2026, lodged with the ASX on 23 September 2026. ASX document key 2924-03139065-6A1345348. lefroyex.com

[R49] Westgold Resources Limited, presentation to the Mining Forum Americas, lodged with the ASX on 28 September 2026. ASX document key 2924-03140317-6A1345909. www.asx.com.au/markets/company/WGX

[R50] Northern Star Resources, Kalgoorlie Operations page, read 9 October 2026. nsrltd.com/our-assets/kalgoorlie-operations

[R51] Cover photo. Silver Lake shaft, Kambalda, 1969, Wilford Peloquin. CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons. Cropped. commons.wikimedia.org

[R52] Mining.com, "Indonesian onslaught wipes out Australia's nickel industry", 2024, and Mining.com.au, "The five largest nickel mines operating in Australia", 17 June 2026. Press reports. mining.com.au/the-five-largest-nickel-mines-operating-in-australia/

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