Start with the facts as of this week. Spot gold is trading around US$4,025–4,050 per ounce (2 July 2026), having touched an eight-month low earlier in the week before recovering above US$4,000. That is roughly 28% below the record high of ~US$5,595–5,602 set on 28–29 January 2026 — and yet still about 22% higher than a year ago. Both of those numbers matter, and most commentary quotes only one of them.

Gold has corrected hard from a January 2026 record near US$5,589 to about US$4,200 by mid-June, yet almost every major bank still points higher over a 12-month view. The disagreement is about how high and by what road — and for ASX investors, the AUD gold price (near record) matters more than the USD headline.