Part 1 set out why China's slowdown looks structural. Part 2 asks where the money already went. Over two and a half years the commodity China buys has gone sideways, while the commodities China controls have repriced by between two thirds and nine times. Tungsten, tin, copper and iron ore, and the ASX and TSX producers on either side of the split.

Part 1 mapped the register. Part 2 explained which of those ores actually give their metal back. This note prices them. It carries one Watershed orebody through three eras of tungsten money, from a US$450 study assumption in 2014 to a A$1.3 billion valuation in 2026; it re-bases the district’s only public tin study to today’s price with every assumption on the table; and it closes on the question the whole series has been building to.

Two tin deposits can report identical assays and still have opposite futures. The variable that separates them is the size of the ore mineral grains: grain size sets recovery, recovery multiplies grade, and no drill intersection reports it. Part 2 of the eastern Australia tin and tungsten series explains the grain size problem and how it decided which known fields became mines.

Explore the rich history of tin and tungsten in Eastern Australia. Discover why tin and tungsten fields have been long known but underdeveloped.