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  • Wiluna Mining (ASX: WMC) - A$180 Million IPO to Bring the Wiluna Gold Mine Back to the ASX

    Wiluna Mining wants A$180 million to return to the ASX. The money repays its secured lender and funds two years of drilling and studies at the Wiluna gold mine in Western Australia, ahead of any restart decision. It holds a 7.1 million ounce gold resource and a processing plant, which stopped in July 2026. Wiluna Mining Corporation Limited is one of the upcoming ASX IPOs, but not a new name. The company was on the ASX from 2006 until April 2024, first as Blackham Resources and later as Wiluna Mining under the code WMC. It now wants to relist with A$180 million of new money. The company calls this an IPO for a relisting. It already has 3,855 registered shareholders. The raising, the conversion of debt into shares and a new board are new [R1]. It differs from explorer floats Samso has covered, such as the Parbo Resources and Gwardar Resources IPOs. THE SOURCE DOCUMENT Wiluna Mining Corporation Limited, Replacement Prospectus, dated 18 September 2026 and lodged with the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC). It replaces the prospectus of 11 September 2026. During the offer period it is available at events.miraqle.com/wmc-offer [R1]. A note on the vocabulary. Terms are explained at first use and collected in one box at the back. The Wiluna Mining IPO Offer Wiluna is seeking A$180 million before costs. The offer is not underwritten, so no broker has agreed to take up shares the public does not. If the full amount is not raised by 13 October 2026, money is returned [R1]. The prospectus sets an indicative range of A$0.65 to A$0.85 a share. The final price is set by a bookbuild, where institutions bid for shares. It can land outside the range, and retail applicants learn it after applying. ASX’s upcoming floats page lists A$0.65, the bottom of the range [R4]. Share counts assume the A$0.75 midpoint (TABLE 01). Wiluna Mining’s Earlier Years on the ASX Blackham Resources joined the ASX on 25 September 2006, bought the Wiluna Gold Mine in 2014 and became Wiluna Mining Corporation in June 2020 [R1]. In June 2022 it sought A$50 million to A$85 million to fix a working capital shortfall and raised about A$50 million. On 20 July 2022 the company entered voluntary administration, where an outside administrator takes control of a company that cannot pay its debts. Trading was suspended the next day [R1]. Underground mining stopped in December 2022 and the mine was placed on care and maintenance. In July 2023 it entered a deed of company arrangement, or DOCA, a binding deal with creditors. On 5 April 2024 ASX removed the company from the official list under Listing Rule 17.12, because its half-year report to 31 December 2022 was more than a year overdue [R2] [R3]. The administrators had asked ASX for relief from that requirement and ASX did not grant it [R3]. In administration the company reprocessed old tailings, the finely ground waste left from earlier processing, and treated ore for BML Ventures under a profit share. The DOCA ended on 31 December 2025, and creditors in the trust were paid 100 cents in the dollar [R1]. ASIC is still suing over a 2022 announcement that left out that 17.5 million shares were issued without the A$7 million being paid. The company has agreed the facts with ASIC, which seeks no penalty from it. The Court will deal with the company after the case against two former executives [R1]. The Wiluna Gold Mine and Its 7.1 Million Ounce Resource The company owns 100 per cent of the Wiluna Gold Mine, 940 kilometres from Perth and 3 kilometres south of the town of Wiluna. The company’s records put production at 4.7 million ounces since 1897, and it holds about 1,628.8 square kilometres of tenements and gold rights around the mine (FIG. 01). The Mineral Resource is 91.7 million tonnes at 2.41 grams of gold per tonne, for 7.1 million ounces, as at 31 January 2026 and reported under the JORC Code. A Mineral Resource is an estimate of gold in the ground with a reasonable prospect of being mined. It is split by confidence into Measured, Indicated and Inferred, with Inferred the lowest (TABLE 02). By Samso’s arithmetic from TABLE 02, 59.8 per cent of the ounces are Inferred, and 70.9 per cent of the underground ounces. The long section shows them in green, with planned drill holes aimed at them (FIG. 02). ERM, the independent technical expert, says the 2023 and 2024 infill drilling broadly converted Inferred ounces to higher categories in the areas it targeted, and that this suggests the Inferred estimate is robust [R1]. The prospectus does not include an Ore Reserve. An Ore Reserve is the part of a resource shown by studies to be mineable at a profit. Why the Wiluna Processing Plant Stopped in July 2026 From March 2023 to July 2026 the plant produced 97,469 ounces of gold. In FY26, the year to 30 June 2026, revenue was A$173.4 million and profit after tax was A$59.5 million [R1]. On 25 July 2026 Tank 4, one of nine carbon-in-leach tanks, ruptured. Carbon-in-leach, or CIL, is the stage where gold is dissolved and captured on carbon. No injuries or environmental impact were identified, and the regulator’s investigation is continuing [R1]. The company decided not to reinstate the tanks and will fold the plant into a future restart plan. It does not expect near-term revenue from gold sales, and expects its workforce of about 70 to fall to about 35 from 1 October 2026. Where the A$180 Million Goes The plan runs for two years (FIG. 03). About 80,000 metres of underground drilling aim to lift Inferred ounces into higher categories. About 140,000 metres of surface drilling test the open pits and regional targets. ERM reviewed the underground cost model and considers the costs reasonable, while noting it carries no contingency [R1]. A$40 million repays the loan from Byrnecut Offshore, the only secured debt [R1]. The Takeovers Panel describes Byrnecut Offshore as a related entity of Byrnecut [R5], the largest shareholder [R1]. The convertible notes, loans that turn into shares, all convert, leaving zero debt, the company says [R1]. Some figures differ within the prospectus. The chairman’s letter puts about A$110 million towards growth, where Table 8 gives A$81.9 million to drilling, underground readiness, site infrastructure and studies. ERM’s technical report has cash of about A$26 million at the end of August 2026, where Section 3.9 says about A$31 million [R1]. Who Owns Wiluna Mining After the Offer At the midpoint, the prospectus shows Byrnecut at 29.50 per cent after the offer, Deutsche Balaton and its associates at 18.02 per cent and AIM Mining at 5.11 per cent. Byrnecut has committed to apply for enough shares to hold its 29.50 per cent [R1]. Noteholders convert at 10 to 25 per cent below the final price, and Deutsche Balaton can buy up to A$8.45 million of shares at a 22.5 per cent discount. Offer applicants pay the full price. The escrow tables cover about 107.4 million discounted shares, meaning they cannot be sold for 12 to 24 months. That is 15.9 per cent of the post-offer shares at the midpoint, by Samso’s arithmetic. The company expects a free float, the shares able to trade, of at least 20 per cent. Risks in the Wiluna Mining IPO The raising pays for the drilling and studies a restart decision needs. It states there is no certainty the mines will be restarted on a commercially viable basis. ERM says restarting a flooded underground mine needs extra contingency for delays [R1]. The prospectus warns the existing infrastructure may not suit the restart plan, and Franco-Nevada holds a 3.6 per cent royalty on all gold sales. Several mining leases need a second renewal before 31 December 2027. Wiluna has agreements with the Wiluna Martu people and is negotiating one to cover all its tenements in the Wiluna Determination Area. The FY24 to FY26 audit opinions carry material uncertainty paragraphs on going concern, a flag on the ability to keep paying bills. A former executive chair seeks an inquiry into the administration, with a hearing listed for 23 November 2026. AIM Mining has proceedings against the company still on foot. Samso Concluding Comments The A$180 million buys two years of drilling and studies. They should show how many Inferred ounces convert and what the plant needs. SAMSO TAKE A large, known gold system with a plant, a camp and 54 kilometres of tunnels already built, and no secured debt after the offer, is rare on the ASX. The question is whether enough of the 4.2 million Inferred ounces convert at a grade and cost that justify a restart. ERM reports that the 2023 and 2024 infill drilling broadly converted Inferred ounces in the areas it targeted. Will the new Golden Age drilling do the same? THE OTHER WAY TO READ THIS This is Samso’s counter-reading, drawn from the prospectus. The company has just suspended its only revenue, holds no Ore Reserve, and carries 59.8 per cent of its ounces in the lowest confidence category. The June 2022 raising fell short and administration followed. Debt holders convert below what new investors pay. Read that way, investors fund a two-year study at a A$505.5 million midpoint market capitalisation, with the outcome open. VOCABULARY, IN PLAIN ENGLISH RELISTING A company that was once on the ASX applying to be admitted again. Wiluna is doing it through a new prospectus and capital raising. BOOKBUILD The process where institutions bid for shares, and the company and its brokers set the final price from those bids. UNDERWRITTEN A broker agreeing to take up any shares the public does not. Wiluna’s offer is not underwritten. VOLUNTARY ADMINISTRATION An outside administrator takes control of a company that cannot pay its debts, to find the best outcome for creditors. DOCA Deed of company arrangement. A binding deal between a company in administration and its creditors, in place of a wind-up. MINERAL RESOURCE An estimate of gold in the ground with a reasonable prospect of eventually being mined, reported under the JORC Code. MEASURED, INDICATED, INFERRED The three confidence levels of a Mineral Resource, from highest to lowest. Inferred rests on the widest-spaced drilling. ORE RESERVE The part of a resource that studies show can be mined and processed at a profit. G/T Grams per tonne, the amount of gold in each tonne of rock. TAILINGS The finely ground waste left after ore has been processed. Old tailings can still hold some gold. CARBON-IN-LEACH (CIL) The processing stage where gold is dissolved and captured on activated carbon in large tanks. CARE AND MAINTENANCE A mine kept safe and serviceable while not producing. CONVERTIBLE NOTE A loan that can be turned into shares instead of being repaid in cash. ESCROW Shares that cannot be sold for a set period after listing. FREE FLOAT The share of a company’s stock actually available to trade. GOING CONCERN The assumption that a company can keep paying its debts. A material uncertainty paragraph flags doubt about it. References and sources Company figures come from the replacement prospectus unless marked otherwise. The ASX history comes from the prospectus and from ASX’s notice. FIG. 01 and FIG. 02 are reproduced from the prospectus with the source quoted. FIG. 03 is an original Samso illustration built only from the prospectus Table 8. Documents were read on 23 September 2026. [R1] Wiluna Mining Corporation Limited, Replacement Prospectus, dated 18 September 2026, lodged with ASIC under section 719 of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth). Chairman’s Letter, Key Offer Information, Sections 2, 3.1 to 3.14, 4.1 to 4.16, 5.2 to 5.5, 6, 9.3 and 9.4, and Annexure 1, the Independent Technical Assessment Report by ERM Australia Consultants Pty Ltd dated 4 September 2026. [R2] ASX Compliance, Wiluna Mining Corporation Limited (ASX: WMC) - Removal from Official List, market announcement, 5 April 2024. [R3] Wiluna Mining Corporation Limited, Corporate Update and Upcoming ASX Delisting, ASX announcement, 4 April 2024. [R4] ASX Limited, Upcoming floats and listings, entry for Wiluna Mining Corporation Limited, security code WMC. Accessed 23 September 2026. [R5] Takeovers Panel, Reasons for Decision, Wiluna Mining Corporation Limited [2026] ATP 1, paragraph 9. Accessed 23 September 2026. Cover photo: aerial view of the Wiluna Gold Mine processing site, Wiluna Mining Corporation Limited, Replacement Prospectus dated 18 September 2026, Section 3 divider page (PDF page 18). Cropped and enlarged by Samso. The Samso Way – Seek the Research Here at Samso, we pride ourselves on delivering content for investors that is independent and informed by over three decades of experience in the industry. Our content is well-researched and is only created if I see merit in discussing the company's story. Our mission is simple. Cut through the noise and spotlight what matters. Genuine stories, grounded insights, and real opportunity. Investors can explore our four core platforms: Coffee with Samso Samso Insights Samso News Samso Research There may be numerous paths to success in investing, but the common thread among successful individuals is that they remain committed to making informed decisions. Equip yourself with the right knowledge and tools, and you will be well on your way to achieving your financial goals. Most importantly, investors need to be absolutely diligent in understanding their own risk-reward tolerance and capabilities. Never bite off more than you can chew. As they say, Rome wasn't built in a day, and the Great Wall stood because it took centuries to complete. The Samso Philosophy: Stay curious. Stay sharp. And remember, digging deeper always uncovers the real value. In Life, there is no such thing as a Free Lunch. Never bite off more than you can chew is my parting comment. Happy Investing, and the only four-letter word you need to know is DYOR. To support our independent work, please head over to our Support Page and give us a helping hand in any of the ways listed. This is a new initiative for the Samso Platform, and it was always the concept of Samso when we started this journey in 2018. Disclaimer The information or opinions provided herein do not constitute investment advice, an offer, or solicitation to subscribe for, purchase, or sell the investment product(s) mentioned herein. It does not take into consideration, nor have any regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation, risk profile, tax position and particular, or unique needs and constraints. Read full Disclaimer. About Samso Samso is a trusted platform that equips dedicated investors with up-to-date industry knowledge and insights from top CEOs and thought leaders. By staying informed on business advancements and market trends, investors can enhance their financial decisions through a combination of expert guidance and their own research. Coffee with Samso, Samso Insights, Samso News and Samso Research are four ways into the same work. Interviews, long-form research, short takes on announcements and company-specific studies. Every one of them is about how to think about investing rather than what to buy. Samso News | www.samso.com.au | An Investor Lens on ASX-Listed Companies Samso News is independent research commentary for general information only. Nothing in this article is financial product advice, and it does not take into account any reader's objectives, financial situation or needs. Figures are drawn from public sources believed reliable at the stated dates but are not guaranteed. Market-sensitive numbers change daily. Samso or associated parties may hold positions in, or have commercial arrangements with, companies mentioned. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions. © Samso 2026 · samso.com.au

  • Identifai Genetics (ASX: ID1) - An IPO Built on Non-Invasive Prenatal Testing

    The Identifai Genetics IPO seeks A$10 million at 20 cents for Windrose, a non-invasive prenatal test designed to screen a baby's genes from the mother's blood. The company says an interim analysis of 50 high-risk pregnancies detected every condition confirmed by invasive testing. The larger US study has not started, and there is no material revenue. The offer closes 29 September 2026. The Identifai Genetics IPO brings an Israeli prenatal genetics company to the ASX. Non-invasive prenatal testing, or NIPT, reads DNA fragments in a pregnant woman's blood. Most are her own. A small share comes from the placenta and usually matches the baby's. Identifai wants that blood draw to screen for many more single-gene conditions. Trading is expected to start on 16 October 2026 [R2]. THE SOURCE DOCUMENT Identifai Genetics Limited, Prospectus, 2 September 2026, lodged with ASIC. Available from the company at identifai-genetics.com/prospectus [R1]. Recent Samso ASX IPO reviews include the Ceretas IPO and the Overwatch Technologies IPO. The Identifai Genetics IPO Offer The offer is 50,000,000 shares at A$0.20, raising A$10,000,000 before costs (TABLE 01). The full amount is also the minimum. The offer is not underwritten, which means no broker has agreed to take up shares the public does not [R1]. Lead manager Aesir Corporate, the broker running the offer, receives a 6 per cent cash fee, A$600,000, plus 10,154,970 options at 25 cents that the company values at A$899,000. The prospectus puts the total at A$1,499,000, or 14.99 per cent of the IPO funds. What Windrose Does, and the Gap It Targets Standard NIPT screens for extra or missing chromosomes, such as Down syndrome. It does not look for most single-gene conditions, disorders caused by one faulty gene, such as cystic fibrosis. The prospectus notes that American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists guidance does not support routine screening for them using cfDNA, the cell-free DNA in the mother's blood [R1]. The usual route is carrier screening of both parents, then possibly amniocentesis, where a needle takes fluid from the womb. Windrose is designed to test the mother. If she carries a faulty gene, the same sample is used to check whether the baby inherited her copy. No sample from the father is needed. It is a screen, so a high-risk result leads to counselling and possibly invasive testing. The company says the father is unavailable for testing in more than 50 per cent of carrier-positive cases. Most of the prospectus describes a panel of "more than 280" genes. Section 4.3(b) also refers to "the full list of 319 genes" (TABLE 02). The Evidence So Far The prospectus says an Israeli study of 18 families was published in Prenatal Diagnosis. An interim analysis of 50 high-risk cases in a US and Israeli study reported that Windrose detected every condition confirmed by invasive testing. The number of such cases is not given. Across all genes it scored 0.94 on AUC, or area under the curve, where 0.5 is a coin toss and 1.0 is perfect. For 13 samples run through Inocras, the US laboratory partner, the prospectus reports 92 per cent sensitivity, real cases caught, and 94 per cent specificity, healthy cases cleared. It does not give the counts behind them. It also reports a top-rated abstract award at ACMG 2026, a US genetics meeting [R1]. Chair Yoseph Bornstein calls the 50-pregnancy results "extremely encouraging" in his letter. The next step is a clinical validation study of about 600 patients across six to eight US sites, planned to start in 2026 [R1]. How the Business Is Put Together A new Australian parent, incorporated in February 2026, owns Identifai Israel, the operating business. It also owns a Delaware subsidiary setting up the US laboratory in San Diego (FIG. 01). Three parties have claims on future sales. Ramot, Tel Aviv University's technology company, takes 4 per cent where a patent covers the product and 3 per cent where one does not. The Israel Innovation Authority granted about US$2.1 million. It is repaid from royalties of about 3 to 5 per cent in Sections 4.15 and 6, and 3 per cent in Note 5 to the accounts. Moving the technology out of Israel needs the Authority's approval and can cost up to six times the grants. The Binational Industrial Research and Development (BIRD) Foundation grant of up to US$1 million is not yet under a signed agreement. It is repaid jointly with Inocras from 5 per cent of sales. Both grant royalties are capped and stop once repaid [R1]. Where the A$10 Million Goes Funds available are A$11,386,000, made up of the raise plus A$1,386,000 of cash held at 31 August 2026. Research and development takes the largest share (FIG. 02). The directors say the funds cover two years [R1]. Identifai Israel used US$2.2 million in operating cash in 2025 and lost US$1.7 million. Its auditor, Deloitte Israel, flagged a material uncertainty about whether Identifai Israel can keep operating as a going concern. On Samso's arithmetic, cash after offer costs is about A$10 million. Set against the A$38.4 million value at the offer price, that leaves about A$28 million for the business. The Register, the Performance Rights and the Escrow Four holders will own about 43 per cent of the shares after the offer, by Samso's count, including Shizim VS, which is linked to two directors. The chief financial officer, Rotem Caspi, is the daughter of director Kobi Caspi. The May 2026 raisings were priced at about 10 cents a share on Samso's arithmetic, and the August pre-IPO round at 16 cents. The 9,436,035 swap options, which replaced Identifai Israel options held by staff and service providers, convert at US$0.06, about A$0.08 at the expert's rate [R1]. There are 25,768,560 performance rights, which turn into shares only if targets are met. Half need CLIA certification, the US federal certificate for the laboratory, announced by 31 December 2026. The other half need US$3.0 million of audited annual recurring revenue by 31 December 2028. Both also need a volume-weighted average share price of at least 25 cents over 20 consecutive trading days. Related parties receive 13,480,090 of the rights (FIG. 03). The independent expert, Pendragon Capital, found the performance rights fair and reasonable. It found the swap options "not fair but reasonable". On the expert's figures, full exercise at US$0.06 lowers the implied value of a share to about A$0.1946. Pendragon's reasons include that they are existing entitlements. Escrow, the ASX rule that stops some holders selling for a period after listing, will apply for up to 24 months. Escrowed amounts are announced before trading. The company expects a free float, the shares free to trade, of about 26 per cent [R1]. What the Next Stage Will Show The results so far come from small groups. Fifty cases were analysed out of more than 200 recruited. The planned 600-patient study will test a larger group. How insurers will pay is still to be worked out. The company may start with self-paying patients, including in vitro fertilisation (IVF) patients. The prospectus notes that a US billing code does not guarantee an insurer will pay. On patents, the Chair's letter says they are granted in the US, China and Israel. Section 4.14 says the US, China and Hong Kong. The independent IP report says China, Hong Kong and Israel, with the US patent approved and its issue fee paid. On Inocras, the risk section says losing the agreement may disrupt the business. Section 9.4 says another laboratory could be found without material disruption [R1]. Near-term Milestones to Watch The company targets CLIA certification in the fourth quarter of 2026. Initial US commercialisation and the study's start are set for 2026, and interim clinical results for the second half of 2027 [R1]. Samso Concluding Comments Identifai is aiming at a real gap. When a mother is a carrier and the father cannot be tested, most conditions still need an invasive test. Of the rival tests the prospectus names that screen the baby, the largest covers 56 genes (TABLE 02). The science comes from founder Professor Noam Shomron's laboratory at Tel Aviv University, where the core algorithms have been developed since 2016. A CLIA laboratory director and a sequencing partner are in place [R1]. At about A$28 million for the business, investors pay for a test with interim results in a small group of high-risk pregnancies. The study that decides whether doctors and payers use it comes later. Shareholders also carry royalties to three parties, Israeli rules on moving the technology, and a register where recent rounds were priced at 10 to 16 cents. SAMSO TAKE On Samso's reading, Identifai is still a clinical-stage company rather than a diagnostics business. The prospectus is detailed about its risks and related parties. Will about 600 patients in real-world care reproduce what 50 high-risk pregnancies showed, and can Identifai get there before larger rivals widen their panels? THE OTHER WAY TO READ THIS The small numbers can also be read as normal at this stage. The prospectus notes that BillionToOne launched Unity Confirm, a follow-up test, on a company-sponsored validation of 16 samples. Identifai could also license its analysis to a laboratory, one of the revenue models the prospectus sets out. Identifai says it is in talks with the largest US laboratory networks. On that view, the offer funds two years of work towards a validated product. VOCABULARY, IN PLAIN ENGLISH NIPT Non-invasive prenatal testing. A blood test from a pregnant woman that screens fragments of placental DNA in her blood, which usually match the baby's. cfDNA Cell-free DNA. Short pieces of DNA floating in the blood, some of which come from the placenta. Carrier screening A test of a parent to see whether they carry one copy of a faulty gene that could pass to a child. Single-gene condition A disorder caused by a fault in one gene, such as cystic fibrosis. Also called a monogenic disorder. Amniocentesis An invasive test where a needle takes fluid from the womb to test the baby's genes directly. Sensitivity and specificity Sensitivity is how often a test catches a real case. Specificity is how often it correctly clears a healthy one. AUC Area under the curve. A score of how well a test tells affected cases from unaffected ones, where 0.5 is no better than a coin toss and 1.0 is perfect. CLIA The Clinical Laboratory Improvement Amendments, the US federal rules for clinical laboratories. A laboratory-developed test can be offered once the laboratory is certified and the test validated. The company does not expect to need approval from the Food and Drug Administration (FDA). State licences, such as California's, also apply. US billing code A CPT code, the code a US laboratory uses to bill for a test. Having one does not mean an insurer will pay. Going concern An auditor's view on whether a business can keep paying its way for at least the next 12 months. Performance rights Rights that turn into shares only if stated targets are met. Escrow Shares that cannot be sold for a set period after listing. Free float The share of the company that is free to trade. Swap options Options issued by the listed company in exchange for options held in Identifai Israel before the share swap. References and sources Every company figure in this piece comes from the prospectus, quoted as published. Where the prospectus gives two figures for a point this piece discusses, both are shown with the section each came from. Markers such as [R1] point to the numbered entries below. Samso's arithmetic is labelled as Samso's. FIG. 01 is reproduced from the prospectus. FIG. 02 and FIG. 03 are Samso charts built from the prospectus tables. Figures current at 23 September 2026. [R1] Identifai Genetics Limited (ACN 695 439 993), Prospectus, dated 2 September 2026, lodged with ASIC. Chair's Letter, Key Offer Information, Sections 1, 2.1 to 2.12, 3.3 to 3.5, 4.1 to 4.19, 5, 6, 7, 9.1 to 9.9, 10.7 and 10.13, Annexure B, the IP report by Herzog Patents and CDS, 31 August 2026, and Annexure C, Independent Expert's Report by Pendragon Capital Limited, 31 August 2026. Accessed 23 September 2026 at identifai-genetics.com/prospectus. [R2] ASX Limited, Upcoming floats and listings. Entry for Identifai Genetics Limited, code ID1, proposed listing 16 October 2026. Accessed 23 September 2026. Cover photo: Illustrative DNA image from the Identifai Genetics Limited Prospectus, 2 September 2026, Chair's Letter, printed page 5. The prospectus states that undescribed images are for illustration only. Cropped by Samso. The Samso Way – Seek the Research Here at Samso, we pride ourselves on delivering content for investors that is independent and informed by over three decades of experience in the industry. Our content is well-researched and is only created if I see merit in discussing the company's story. Our mission is simple. Cut through the noise and spotlight what matters. Genuine stories, grounded insights, and real opportunity. Investors can explore our four core platforms: Coffee with Samso Samso Insights Samso News Samso Research There may be numerous paths to success in investing, but the common thread among successful individuals is that they remain committed to making informed decisions. Equip yourself with the right knowledge and tools, and you will be well on your way to achieving your financial goals. Most importantly, investors need to be absolutely diligent in understanding their own risk-reward tolerance and capabilities. Never bite off more than you can chew. As they say, Rome wasn't built in a day, and the Great Wall stood because it took centuries to complete. The Samso Philosophy: Stay curious. Stay sharp. And remember, digging deeper always uncovers the real value. In Life, there is no such thing as a Free Lunch. Never bite off more than you can chew is my parting comment. Happy Investing, and the only four-letter word you need to know is DYOR. To support our independent work, please head over to our Support Page and give us a helping hand in any of the ways listed. This is a new initiative for the Samso Platform, and it was always the concept of Samso when we started this journey in 2018. Disclaimer The information or opinions provided herein do not constitute investment advice, an offer, or solicitation to subscribe for, purchase, or sell the investment product(s) mentioned herein. It does not take into consideration, nor have any regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation, risk profile, tax position and particular, or unique needs and constraints. Read full Disclaimer. About Samso Samso is a trusted platform that equips dedicated investors with up-to-date industry knowledge and insights from top CEOs and thought leaders. By staying informed on business advancements and market trends, investors can enhance their financial decisions through a combination of expert guidance and their own research. Coffee with Samso, Samso Insights, Samso News and Samso Research are four ways into the same work. Interviews, long-form research, short takes on announcements and company-specific studies. Every one of them is about how to think about investing rather than what to buy. Samso News | www.samso.com.au | An Investor Lens on ASX-Listed Companies Samso News is independent research commentary for general information only. Nothing in this article is financial product advice, and it does not take into account any reader's objectives, financial situation or needs. Figures are drawn from public sources believed reliable at the stated dates but are not guaranteed. Market-sensitive numbers change daily. Samso or associated parties may hold positions in, or have commercial arrangements with, companies mentioned. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions. © Samso 2026 · samso.com.au

  • Stavely Minerals (ASX: SVY) - Does This Chart Tell You Anything?

    Pull up the Stavely Minerals share price chart, and it looks like a company on the mend. The price is higher than it was six months ago, and it has had some big up days. This Chart Read checks whether that impression holds up, then goes through the twelve biggest one-day moves of the past year to see what was behind each one. This is a Samso Chart Read. The subject is the Stavely Minerals share price and nothing else, not the projects, the resource or the studies. The question is the one most of us ask with a chart in front of us. It looks like it is going up, so is it? Every technical term is explained as we go, and there is a plain-English list at the back. 1. THE FIRST IMPRESSION. What the Chart Looks Like at a Glance FIGURE 01 is two years of Stavely's daily closing price. The shares fell from 3.2 cents to 1.0 cent by late June 2025, climbed back to 2.5 cents by that October, and has bounced between 1.2 cents and 2.5 cents since. It closed at 1.6 cents on 18 September 2026 [R2]. Two things make that look like a recovery. The price is 10.3 per cent higher than it was 120 trading days ago, about six months. And it sits above what traders call its 200-day moving average. A moving average is the average closing price over the last so many days, worked out again each day. The 200-day version smooths out the daily noise and shows the slow direction underneath. The rule of thumb is simple. If the price is above that line the long-run direction is up, and if it is below, the direction is down. Stavely is 4.9 per cent above it. Higher than six months ago and above the long-run line is the picture people read as a stock turning the corner. 2. THE TREND TEST. What the Trend Measures Say So we test it. FIGURE 02 has three panels, and each is a different way of asking the same question. The top panel adds a faster 50-day average to the 200-day one. It reacts more quickly because it only looks back ten weeks. The price is 4.9 per cent above the 200-day but 4.5 per cent below the 50-day, and the 50-day has edged down over the past fortnight. The two lines are saying opposite things. In our jargon, that is a range, which is a price moving sideways between a floor and a ceiling rather than heading anywhere. The middle panel is MACD, and it is worth going slowly on because the name tells you nothing. It stands for moving average convergence divergence. It is widely attributed to Gerald Appel, an American money manager and newsletter writer, who set it out in his own booklet, The Moving Average Convergence-Divergence Trading Method, in the late 1970s. Take the average price over the last 12 days and call that the fast one, because it reacts quickly. Take the average over the last 26 days and call that the slow one. Subtract the slow from the fast and you have a single number. If recent prices are pushing higher, the fast average pulls ahead of the slow one, the number is positive, and the line sits above the zero mark. If prices are fading, the fast average falls behind and the line drops below zero. The second line on that panel, called the signal, is a smoothed version of the first [R4]. Traders read two things off it. Whether the MACD line is above or below zero, and whether it is above or below its signal line. Stavely's is below both. They point the same way, and it is not up. The bottom panel is ADX, short for Average Directional Index. J. Welles Wilder set it out in New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems in 1978. That one book also gave the market the Relative Strength Index, the Average True Range and the Parabolic SAR, so a good deal of a standard charting screen comes out of it. It measures whether a price is going anywhere at all, which is a different question from which way it is going, and one most people never think to ask. Above 25 is usually called a trend, below 20 no trend. Stavely finished at 12.2. Over the year it sat under 20 on 100 of the 254 trading days and above 25 on 83, so it has been in and out of both. It is in the no-trend zone now [R5]. One more number. Over the last 60 trading days, about three months, the price finished exactly where it started. The six-month gain is measured from the lowest point of the year. Measure from anywhere else and it goes away. 3. THE SPIKES. What Was Behind Each One That leaves the big days. A share price usually jumps because the company has told the market something. So we took the twelve biggest one-day moves of the past year and looked up what Stavely lodged with the ASX on each of those days and on the trading day before. FIGURE 03 shows what came back. Seven of the twelve had nothing lodged at all. The biggest was 9 June 2026. The price went from 1.5 cents to 1.9 cents, up 26.7 per cent, on A$146,434 worth of shares. Nothing was lodged, and the next day it gave the whole lot back. The one filing across those two days was a substantial holder notice, the form lodged when an investor's stake passes 5 per cent. It tells you a large parcel changed hands, not why anybody bought. On 31 August 2026 the price rose 18.7 per cent, from 1.6 cents to 1.9 cents. The number of shares that changed hands was 65,076, which at that price is A$1,236. The biggest move that did have something behind it was 10 September 2026, up 14.3 per cent. The filing that morning was a slide pack from an investor conference, and the company ticked the box saying it was not price sensitive [R1]. So on most of the sharp up days the company had told the market nothing. Something else moved the price, and whatever it was, it was not an announcement. 4. THE TICK. How Far the Price Moves in One Step There is a mechanical reason those percentages look bigger than the information behind them, and it applies to every ASX stock under 10 cents. Buy and sell orders on the ASX can only be placed at set prices, a fixed distance apart, and that distance is called a tick. Below 10 cents the tick is one tenth of a cent. That sounds tiny until you do the division. At 1.5 cents it is 6.67 per cent of the whole share price. So anyone wanting to bid above the best buyer has to move the price 6.67 per cent to do it [R3]. FIGURE 04 draws every price Stavely closed at over the past year. There are 20 of them and they sit as 20 lines across the chart. Fourteen sit on that one tenth of a cent grid. The other six sit halfway between two of them, which happens when a buyer and a seller are matched at the midpoint rather than at a quoted price, and ten of the 254 days ended that way. Either way the grid is coarse, and the smallest move Stavely made all year was 2.6 per cent. So a 6.67 per cent day is one step and a 20 per cent day is three. The tick does get bigger as the share price does, but nowhere near as fast. On a 50 cent share the step is half a cent, so those same three steps come to 3 per cent. On a ten dollar share the step is one cent and three steps come to 0.3 per cent. 5. THE TURNOVER. How Much Money Goes Through in a Day The other thing to weigh is how much money is actually going through. FIGURE 05 sorts every trading day of the past year by the dollar value of shares traded. The typical day traded A$10,527. On 163 of the 254 days less than A$20,000 changed hands, on 94 of them less than A$5,000, and on eight days nobody traded at all. On 121 of those days, close to half the year, the price did not move at all. FIGURE 06 puts each day's move against the dollars behind it, and 31 August sits out on its own. Chart reading rests on an assumption that is rarely said out loud. When traders talk about support, a price where buyers keep stepping in, or resistance, a price where sellers keep appearing, or a breakout, a price pushing past one of those, they are assuming the price is the settled opinion of a lot of people. A$1,236 is not the settled opinion of a lot of people. It is somebody placing an order. That last step is Samso's own reading rather than a rule from the textbooks, and it is worth saying what it does not mean. A thinly traded price is not a wrong price. Plenty of companies trade quietly for years and are priced perfectly sensibly by the few people paying attention. The claim here is narrower. A price set by a handful of orders carries less information than one set by thousands, so a pattern drawn from it is a weaker piece of evidence, not a false one. THE OTHER WAY TO READ THIS Someone who trades trends for a living would read this chart more kindly, and the case deserves to be put. The price is above the 200-day line and that line has ticked up over the past month. The faster 50-day line has been above the slower 200-day one on 158 of the last 254 trading days, which is the arrangement trend traders like to see. The 1.0 cent low of June 2025 has not been touched again in the fourteen months since, and the price held a floor at 1.2 cents even while new shares were issued below the market price. ADX is worked out from what has already happened, so a low reading describes the quiet spell just gone rather than what comes next. Read that way, this is a company building a base rather than drifting. What that reading still has to deal with is the tick and the money going through, which are true whichever way you call the trend. 6. WHAT WOULD MAKE THIS WRONG. What Would Change This Reading Two things, and neither is a price to trade against. The first is how much money goes through. If the typical day moved back above A$20,000 and held there for three months, the price would be the product of a lot of people again and the patterns would start to mean what they normally mean. The second is ADX. If it climbed back above 25 and held, with the 50-day average turning up through the 200-day, the measures would be describing a real direction rather than a sideways drift. ADX reached 52.3 on 19 June 2026, so it can get there, but it did not hold. 7. SAMSO CONCLUDING COMMENTS The answer to the question at the top is no. The chart looks like it is turning up for two reasons, and both are weaker than they look. The six-month gain is measured from the lowest point of the year, and the price is above its 200-day line by only 4.9 per cent while sitting below the faster 50-day line. Everything else says sideways. ADX at 12.2, MACD below zero and below its signal line, and a price that has gone nowhere in three months. The big days do not rescue it either. Most had no announcement behind them, the biggest was reversed the following day, and one was three price steps bought for A$1,236. None of this says anything about Stavely's ground, its drilling or its studies. The company is exploring and working through those studies, and they are what will decide where the share price goes. On a stock this thinly traded, with price steps this large, the chart is not carrying enough information to tell you much either way, and knowing that is worth more than reading a pattern into it. Two checks will tell you the same thing about any small company on the ASX and they take a minute. Work out what one price step is as a percentage of the share price. Then look up what a typical day trades in dollars. If the first number is big and the second is small, the chart in front of you is a record of a few orders, and no technical analysis will turn it into more than that. SAMSO TAKE Seven of the twelve biggest moves in Stavely's year had no announcement behind them, and the biggest of the lot was undone the next day. If the sharpest days on a chart are not reactions to information, what is a pattern drawn from those days actually telling you? ABOUT THE READING THE CHART SERIES Reading the Chart is where Samso analyses a company's share price and shows how the reading was arrived at. The measures, the window each is taken over and what would make the reading wrong are all stated, so a reader can run the same check on another stock. A Chart Read carries no Samso Call, and no entry, exit, target or position size. Samso does not tell anyone where to trade a price. THE WORDS IN THIS PIECE, IN PLAIN ENGLISH Trading day. A day the exchange is open. There are about 254 in a year, so 120 trading days is roughly six months, and 60 is roughly three. Tick. The fixed step a price moves in. On the ASX a share priced under 10 cents moves in steps of one tenth of a cent, so at 1.5 cents one step is 6.67 per cent of the share price. Value traded, or turnover. The dollars that changed hands in a day, being the number of shares traded multiplied by the price. It tells you how real a market is far better than the share count on its own. Typical day, or median. The middle day once every day of the year is lined up in order of value traded. It describes an ordinary day better than an average, which a handful of very busy days can drag upwards. Moving average. The average closing price over the last so-many days, worked out again each day. It smooths out the daily noise. The 50-day and the 200-day are the two most watched, and reading them as the divide between up and down is long-standing market habit rather than anything that has been proven. MACD. Short for moving average convergence divergence. Widely attributed to Gerald Appel, an American money manager and newsletter writer, who set it out in his own booklet, The Moving Average Convergence-Divergence Trading Method, in the late 1970s. The average price over 12 days minus the average over 26 days. Above zero, recent prices are pushing ahead of older ones. Below zero, they are falling behind. A second line, the signal, is a smoothed version of the first. ADX, or Average Directional Index. J. Welles Wilder's measure of whether a price is going anywhere at all, rather than which way. He set it out in New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems in 1978, the book that also gave the market RSI and the Average True Range. Above 25 is usually called a trend and below 20 no trend. Those cut-offs are convention, not a finding. Range. A price moving sideways between a floor and a ceiling instead of heading in a direction. Support and resistance. Support is a price where buyers keep stepping in and stop the fall. Resistance is a price where sellers keep appearing and cap the rise. Both assume enough people are trading for the level to mean something. Breakout. A price pushing up through resistance or down through support, which traders read as the start of a move. Substantial holder notice. The form lodged with the ASX when an investor's stake passes 5 per cent of a company. It records that a large parcel changed hands. It does not say why. Price sensitive. A tick the company puts on an announcement to flag that it could reasonably move the share price. An announcement without the tick is not expected to. References and sources Every figure in this piece is Samso's own chart, drawn from the sources below. No third-party figure, map or photograph is reproduced. [R1] ASX, Stavely Minerals Limited (SVY) company page and market announcements, asx.com.au, read 19 September 2026. Source for the company name, listing date, shares on issue, market capitalisation, and every announcement title and date quoted in FIGURE 03. [R2] Yahoo Finance, daily price and volume bars for SVY.AX, 19 September 2024 to 18 September 2026, retrieved 19 September 2026. The price series behind every figure and the cover. [R3] ASX Operating Rules Procedures, the tick size schedule. Under 10 cents the tick is 0.1 cents, from 10 cents to under A$2.00 it is 0.5 cents, and at A$2.00 and above it is 1 cent. Source for section 4.00. [R4] Gerald Appel, the moving average convergence divergence method, late 1970s. Source for the MACD definition and the 12, 26 and 9 day settings used in FIGURE 02. [R5] J. Welles Wilder, New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems, 1978. Source for the Average Directional Index and the conventional 20 and 25 thresholds. The Samso Way – Seek the Research Here at Samso, we pride ourselves on delivering content for investors that is independent and informed by over three decades of experience in the industry. Our content is well-researched and is only created if I see merit in discussing the company's story. Our mission is simple. Cut through the noise and spotlight what matters. Genuine stories, grounded insights, and real opportunity. Investors can explore our four core platforms: Coffee with Samso Samso Insights Samso News Samso Research There may be numerous paths to success in investing, but the common thread among successful individuals is that they remain committed to making informed decisions. Equip yourself with the right knowledge and tools, and you will be well on your way to achieving your financial goals. Most importantly, investors need to be absolutely diligent in understanding their own risk-reward tolerance and capabilities. Never bite off more than you can chew. As they say, Rome wasn't built in a day, and the Great Wall stood because it took centuries to complete. The Samso Philosophy: Stay curious. Stay sharp. And remember, digging deeper always uncovers the real value. In Life, there is no such thing as a Free Lunch. Never bite off more than you can chew is my parting comment. Happy Investing, and the only four-letter word you need to know is DYOR. To support our independent work, please head over to our Support Page and give us a helping hand in any of the ways listed. This is a new initiative for the Samso Platform, and it was always the concept of Samso when we started this journey in 2018. Disclaimer The information or opinions provided herein do not constitute investment advice, an offer, or solicitation to subscribe for, purchase, or sell the investment product(s) mentioned herein. It does not take into consideration, nor have any regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation, risk profile, tax position and particular, or unique needs and constraints. Read full Disclaimer. About Samso Samso is a trusted platform that equips dedicated investors with up-to-date industry knowledge and insights from top CEOs and thought leaders. By staying informed on business advancements and market trends, investors can enhance their financial decisions through a combination of expert guidance and their own research. Coffee with Samso, Samso Insights, Samso News and Samso Research are four ways into the same work. Interviews, long-form research, short takes on announcements and company-specific studies. Every one of them is about how to think about investing rather than what to buy. Samso News | www.samso.com.au | An Investor Lens on ASX-Listed Companies Samso News is independent research commentary for general information only. Nothing in this article is financial product advice, and it does not take into account any reader's objectives, financial situation or needs. Figures are drawn from public sources believed reliable at the stated dates but are not guaranteed. Market-sensitive numbers change daily. Samso or associated parties may hold positions in, or have commercial arrangements with, companies mentioned. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions. © Samso 2026 · samso.com.au

  • Five ASX Small Caps With AI Data Centre Optionality

    The easy way to read the AI data-centre boom is to count the gigawatts being announced. The more useful questions are where those gigawatts will come from, who will pay for them and whether the proposed site can ever be connected. That distinction matters because the numbers being discussed are no longer ordinary commercial loads. A single hyperscale data centre campus can draw several hundred megawatts of continuous power, on a par with a mid-sized industrial precinct or a small city, and some of the proposals in this piece are pitched at up to 1GW or 2GW (Figure 1). Networks built for households and existing industry were never sized for that kind of load to arrive in one location almost overnight. That is the pressure behind Australia's shift from simply welcoming data centres to attaching conditions to them. Figure 1: Aerial view of Microsoft’s new AI data centre campus in Mt Pleasant, Wisconsin (Source: Microsoft) The conditions now on the table are specific. New large facilities are expected to help underwrite the new electricity supply they need, rather than draw down capacity meant for everyone else. They are expected to fund their own connection costs, rather than push those costs onto other network users. They are expected to curtail their own power use when the grid is under strain, so a heatwave that stresses household supply does not get worse because a data centre keeps running at full draw. And they are expected to show they use water efficiently, because the cooling systems large computing facilities need can be heavy water users in regions where water is already contested. On top of that, the federal government has directed that new data centres should mostly run on renewable energy. Gas can help firm that supply when the sun is not shining or the wind is not blowing, but is not meant to be the primary source. Put together, this reshapes who is actually well positioned in the sector. It favours companies that already hold a working combination of developable land, grid access, new generation, storage, gas firming and fibre, over companies that simply hold gas in the ground or have attached an "AI" label to a project that predates any of this - and it looks like resources and energy companies are well-positioned to fill this gap. This story discusses five ASX small caps that are well-positioned to host data centres The vocabulary, in plain English A hyperscaler is a very large technology company, such as a cloud computing provider, that builds and runs its own giant data centres. A heads of agreement, or HoA, is an early document that sets out what two parties intend to agree. It can be non-binding, where neither side is legally obliged to proceed, or binding, where the parties have made a legal commitment even before a full contract is signed. A power purchase agreement, or PPA, is a contract to buy electricity from a specific generator over a set period. MW means megawatt and GW means gigawatt, a GW is 1,000 MW, and both measure electricity capacity, not the amount actually used. Freehold land is land the company owns outright, as opposed to a lease or an option to buy. Firming means adding backup generation, such as gas or batteries, so that renewable power stays reliable when the sun is not shining or the wind is not blowing. Voluntary administration is a formal process where an independent administrator takes control of a company that cannot pay its debts, to work out whether it can be restructured, sold, or wound up. How do the ASX Data Centre optionality plays compare? Table 1: Companies with AI data centre optionality Company ASX Market cap Key asset AI-opportunity Stage 1414 Degrees 14D approximately A$43m Aurora Energy Precinct, SA Up to 1GW renewable-powered campus Proposed, feasibility stage, non-binding HoA signed Beetaloo Energy Australia BTL approximately A$346m Carpentaria gas plus Weddell site, Northern Territory 2GW off-grid gas-powered campus concept Pre-FEED, feasibility stage Strike Energy STX approximately A$341m South Erregulla gas plant and precinct, WA Firmed renewable-powered industrial and data precinct Under construction, commissioning, data centre case speculative Frontier Energy FHE approximately A$216m Waroona solar and battery site, WA Renewable-powered campus beside 330kV transmission infrastructure Under construction, early works, data centre case speculative Pilot Energy PGY approximately A$6.8m Cliff Head/Arrowsmith and Three Springs, WA Modular compute plus proposed 50MW solar and battery campus Operating 0.4MW module, proposed 50MW site, company in voluntary administration Prices and market caps above are indicative, mostly from 6 to 7 August 2026, calculated from market price and the latest disclosed or post-raising share count where available, and can differ across delayed data feeds. Approximate prices used were A$0.061 for 14D, A$0.230 for BTL, A$0.095 for STX, A$0.195 for FHE and A$0.054 for PGY. Pilot's market cap uses its last traded price because its securities are currently suspended. Readers should check current prices and suspension status on the ASX before making any decision. 1. 1414 Degrees (ASX: 14D) 14D controls the 15.8-square-kilometre Aurora Energy Precinct near Port Augusta, South Australia, under long-term tenure. Moreover, the company's silicon-based thermal energy storage technology – SiBrick® – safely and efficiently stores renewable electricity as latent heat (Figure 2). Figure 2: SiBrick® - company's silicon-based thermal energy storage technology (Source: 14D Website) The site has highway access, water infrastructure, transcontinental fibre and high-voltage transmission next door. Its approved 140MW/280MWh battery, up to 900MW of solar potential and a proposed data centre campus give it a workable combination of renewable power, storage and land. Management says an initial 17MW can connect through 33kV infrastructure, around 200MW through 275kV infrastructure, and up to 1GW through staged upgrades. These are development pathways, not power that is already contracted. The grid operator AEMO and network owner ElectraNet have accepted generator performance standards for the battery, but final connection terms, an electricity offtake deal and construction funding are still outstanding. In July 2026, 14D signed a non-binding HoA with an unnamed Australian operator. It gives that operator exclusivity over an initial 40-hectare parcel and covers up to 1GW in total. The operator is expected to bring capital and operating expertise, but no lease, PPA, named hyperscaler customer or financial terms have been disclosed. 2. Beetaloo Energy Australia (ASX: BTL) BTL holds exclusive negotiating rights, described as a "not-to-deal" arrangement rather than ownership or a signed lease, over 185 hectares at Weddell, about 30 kilometres from Darwin (Figure 3).The company has proposed a two-campus, up to 2GW AI data centre development there. The flat, cleared site sits near the planned Territory Energy Link and a proposed subsea cable landing point connecting to Asia. Figure 3: Beetaloo's Major holdings across both McArthur and Beetaloo Basins (Source: BTL Website) The concept would run on gas generated on site from BTL's Beetaloo gas holdings, built larger than needed so it does not draw power from the Northern Territory grid. Fibre access, water supply and cooling design have not been made public. The gas backing this concept sits at BTL's Carpentaria project, where the company reports about 1.6 trillion cubic feet of contingent gas resources. Pilot gas production is targeted for late 2026, so the fuel source is not yet in production. The Weddell project remains at concept and pre-FEED stage, meaning early feasibility work before a full front-end engineering design, and still needs a funding consortium, proven gas supply, financing, approvals and signed land and infrastructure agreements. A memorandum of understanding with Halliburton covers technical collaboration only, not project capital or a data centre customer. 3. Strike Energy (ASX: STX) Strike owns 3,500 hectares of freehold, previously cleared farmland at South Erregulla, roughly 280 kilometres north of Perth and 45 kilometres east of Three Springs, Western Australia (Figure 4).The site combines gas resources, planned renewable generation and an 85MW gas-fired power station. The original development case pointed to transmission lines about 15 kilometres away, gas reserves in the highest confidence category, and around 1.3 petajoules of annual fuel demand supporting more than 25 years of operation. Figure 4: Strike’s petroleum acreage in the onshore, northern Perth Basin (Source: STK Website) By 29 June 2026, all 20 generating units at the power station had been commissioned on gas. Grid and network commissioning, along with dedicated connection works, were still continuing at that date, so the power supply is not yet fully proven for a data centre load. The 85MW plant was designed mainly as a peaking and reserve-capacity asset, not dedicated round-the-clock baseload supply, so additional generation or storage would be needed to supply a data centre. Strike has publicly argued that gas, solar and wind in the Mid West region could support data centres, but this is company positioning rather than a signed deal. No data centre developer, hyperscaler customer, site plan, fibre connection, cooling water source or commercial agreement has been disclosed. 4. Frontier Energy (ASX: FHE) Frontier owns approximately 820 to 830 hectares at Waroona, around 120 kilometres south of Perth, about 500 metres from Western Power's Landwehr transmission terminal. Stage One of its project is 132MW of solar generation, an 81.5MW/565MWh battery, and a new 330kV substation. A fixed-price construction contract has been awarded, and lenders have given credit approval for debt of up to A$280 million, though that debt still needs final documentation and conditions to be met. Combined with an equity raising in July, management expects Stage One to be fully funded, with first power targeted for the second half of 2028. A further Stage Two, covering about 120MW of solar and an 80MW battery, has approvals in place. Figure 5: FHE Waroona Infrastructure (Source: FHE June 2026 Presentation) This makes Frontier one of the better renewable-powered land assets in the screen on paper, with freehold scale, a high-voltage connection point and long-duration storage matching the direction of federal policy. Water capacity, carrier-grade fibre and any formal data centre development application have not been publicly verified. Media reports said AI company Sharon AI had considered an equity position in Frontier, and that Frontier receives approaches from interested parties, but Sharon AI denied it had bought the reported stake. No agreement, customer or data centre plan has been announced by Frontier itself. 5. Pilot Energy (ASX: PGY) - In administration Pilot commissioned 0.4MW of a planned 1MW modular high-performance-compute facility at Arrowsmith, WA, in April 2026, using existing gas and part of its approximately 4.4MW of generation capacity. The remaining 0.6MW needs an electrical upgrade. Management has pointed to Starlink and a Vocus fibre route about 10 kilometres away, but a carrier-grade fibre connection, a confirmed water source and the actual workload running on the facility have not been verified. Separately, Pilot signed a binding HoA with a company called SNE, covering land acquisition, solar and battery storage and a proposed 50MW data centre at Three Springs, with milestone payments due to Pilot. Due diligence and the definitive contracts under that HoA were incomplete, and there was no certainty the deal would proceed to completion. Pilot subsequently appointed voluntary administrators, and its securities are now suspended from trading. That means the 0.4MW facility's current operating status, and whether its counterparties still intend to proceed, both need to be reconfirmed. Pilot's larger Mid West infrastructure, including roads, pipelines and an offshore reservoir at Cliff Head, may still hold value in its own right, but that infrastructure does not by itself make a working data centre campus. Which of the five stand out 1414 Degrees offers the widest gap between its roughly A$43 million market value and a potentially large campus of up to 1GW. Aurora already combines a large controlled site, transmission access, fibre, water infrastructure, solar potential and an approved battery project. The HoA is real, if early, commercial evidence. A binding lease, a staged connection agreement or a named creditworthy customer could change how the market sees the company. The current discount reflects that exclusivity is non-binding, grid capacity is not reserved at the full 1GW, and construction funding has not been arranged. Strike Energy's 3,500-hectare freehold precinct, dedicated gas, 85MW of generation and grid works are more tangible physical infrastructure than most companies on this list can show. A renewable partner and a signed data centre tenant could let Strike use its existing investment to move faster than a company starting from nothing. But Strike has no data centre counterparty at all. Its current valuation rests mainly on its energy assets, so upside from AI data centres is possible but unproven. Frontier Energy is the closest company to displacing Strike in this group. It has a better fit with the renewable-power policy direction, but its data centre interest is based on media reports rather than a signed agreement, and first power is not expected until 2028. Pilot Energy is the only one of the five that has both a binding, data centre-specific HoA and equipment already running at a customer-facing scale. On paper, that is more commercial progress than any of the other four can show. In practice, the company's move into voluntary administration overwhelms that progress. Whether the SNE agreement, the operating module, or Pilot's broader infrastructure hold any of their earlier value now depends on the outcome of the administration, not on the underlying data centre case. The risks that apply across this group Building a data centre-scale campus, plus new generation, storage and fibre, can cost far more than these companies are currently worth on the market. 14D has recently raised equity and would need considerably more capital to fund a full-scale campus. Frontier's credit-approved debt and equity package is the most advanced project funding among the five, but it is still subject to conditions. Beetaloo still needs to assemble consortium-scale capital before Weddell can proceed. Pilot's funding position is now a matter for its administrators rather than ordinary equity or debt raising. A nearby transmission line does not mean firm capacity is actually available. Connection studies, equipment needed to maintain grid stability, network upgrades, curtailment rules and queue position can all affect what a company can actually deliver. Announced capacity targets should not be treated as capacity that is already connected. Water rights and cooling design are often not disclosed. Dry cooling reduces water use but can increase construction cost and energy use. Being near a fibre route is not the same as having a confirmed, carrier-grade connection. Data centre, generation, transmission and water approvals are separate approval processes. Gas developments carry additional emissions, Traditional Owner, environmental and social approval risks. Land options or exclusivity periods can lapse before approvals are granted. Forecasts for AI computing demand may prove too high. More efficient chips, liquid cooling and changes in where workloads are located could reduce the value of remote sites. Large technology companies can also bypass smaller companies and contract directly with utilities. Gas price, how much of a contingent gas resource actually converts into a produced reserve, production decline and carbon costs can all reduce the economics of gas-fired, behind-the-meter power. Under Australia's developing policy framework, gas-only campuses face the most exposure, and renewable PPAs and storage are likely to be needed alongside them. An HoA, whether binding or non-binding, is not revenue on its own, and a signed agreement can still fail to complete, as Pilot's own situation shows. Small management teams have to manage energy, property, telecommunications and digital infrastructure work all at the same time, on top of everyday production and funding pressures. A company appointing administrators can leave every other commercial arrangement it has signed in doubt. Samso Concluding Comments 1414 Degrees has the most complete package among the five, on the evidence available. Aurora combines controlled land, high-voltage infrastructure, a fibre corridor, water access, solar potential and an approved battery, and its non-binding HoA is a step beyond a purely theoretical proposal. At a market value of roughly A$43 million, successfully de-risking the project could be significant for the company. It remains a high-risk development, with no confirmed customer, lease, large-scale connection or funding secured yet. Strike Energy has the more tangible, near-operational infrastructure of the remaining companies with an intact balance sheet, but no data centre counterparty at all. Frontier Energy would move ahead of Strike if it announced a credible operator, or a verified data centre fibre and water solution, of its own. Pilot Energy is the clearest illustration in this group of the gap between having signed something and having a viable business. It has the most advanced data centre-specific agreement and the most equipment actually running, and also the single largest company-level risk of the five, now that it is in the hands of administrators. Cover photo: Data center roof, Rsparks3. CC0, via Wikimedia Commons (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Data_center_roof.jpg) The Samso Way – Seek the Research Here at Samso, we pride ourselves on delivering content for investors that is independent and informed by over three decades of experience in the industry. Our content is well-researched and is only created if I see merit in discussing the company's story. Our mission is simple: cut through the noise and spotlight what matters—genuine stories, grounded insights, and real opportunity. Our content is well-researched and is only created if the team sees merit in discussing the company or concept. Investors can explore our three core platforms: Coffee with Samso Samso Insights Samso News There may be numerous paths to success in investing, but the common thread among successful individuals is that they remain committed to making informed decisions. Equip yourself with the right knowledge and tools, and you will be well on your way to achieving your financial goals. Most importantly, investors need to be absolutely diligent in understanding their own risk-reward tolerance and capabilities. Never bite off more than you can chew. As they say, Rome wasn’t built in a day, and the Great Wall stood because it took centuries to complete. The Samso Philosophy: Stay curious. Stay sharp. And remember—digging deeper always uncovers the real value. In Life, there is no such thing as a Free Lunch. Never bite off more than you can chew is my parting comment. Happy Investing, and the only four-letter word you need to know is DYOR. To support our independent work, please head over to our Support Page and give us a helping hand in any of the ways listed. This is a new initiative for the Samso Platform, and it was always the concept of Samso when we started this journey in 2018. Disclaimer The information or opinions provided herein do not constitute investment advice, an offer, or solicitation to subscribe for, purchase, or sell the investment product(s) mentioned herein. It does not take into consideration, nor have any regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation, risk profile, tax position and particular, or unique needs and constraints. Read full Disclaimer. About Samso Samso is a trusted platform that equips dedicated investors with up-to-date industry knowledge and insights from top CEOs and thought leaders. By staying informed on business advancements and market trends, investors can enhance their financial decisions through a combination of expert guidance and their own research. Samso News | www.samso.com.au | An Investor Lens on ASX-Listed Companies

  • Almasar Minerals (ASX: AMK) Marks ASX First with Saudi-Focused Front-Door IPO

    Almasar Minerals’ ASX debut puts a fresh spotlight on Saudi Arabia’s push to attract international mining capital via its Vision 2030 reforms. With the IPO now completed and funding secured, the focus shifts to how effectively the company can convert its Arabian Shield tenure into drill-ready targets and, ultimately, discoveries. Almasar Minerals Ltd (ASX: AMK) has become the first Saudi Arabia-focused exploration company to complete a conventional ASX IPO under the Kingdom’s modern mining regime, marking an important milestone in the growing investment relationship between Saudi Arabia’s mining sector and Australian capital markets. Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 reforms have opened the Kingdom’s mining sector to greater foreign investment, creating the pathway for companies like Almasar to bring Saudi exploration assets to international markets such as the ASX. Almasar raised the maximum A$12 million sought under its IPO at A$0.20 per share, before closing its first day of ASX trading at A$0.26 - a 30% premium to the issue price. The portfolio comprises five granted exploration licences - ND28, ND31, ND36, ND41 and NS142 - covering approximately 419.8 square kilometres (Figure 1). The licences sit within two metallogenic belts considered prospective for orogenic gold, volcanogenic massive sulphide copper-gold and porphyry-style mineral systems. Figure 1: Regional location map of the Almasar licences in relation to major centres and transport infrastructure (Source: IPO Prospectus) Almasar Minerals Tenements All five exploration licences are held through Almasar's Saudi operating subsidiary and were granted in February or April 2026 (Figure 2). Table 1: Al Masar exploration licences Licence Area Geological position Expiry ND28 72.4km² Nabitah-Ad Duwayhi belt 20 April 2028 ND31 73.7km² Nabitah-Ad Duwayhi belt 20 April 2028 ND36 89.6km² Nabitah-Ad Duwayhi belt 28 April 2028 ND41 93.8km² Nabitah-Ad Duwayhi belt 20 April 2028 NS142 90.0km² Nuqrah-As Safra belt 19 February 2028 The contiguous ND28, ND31 and ND36 licences form the main southern cluster. The prospectus describes this area as a structurally controlled corridor containing volcanic, volcaniclastic, sedimentary and intrusive rocks affected by northwest-trending shear systems. Figure 2 :Geology of Exploration Blocks ND28, ND31, ND36 (Independent Technical Assessment Report, 2026) The exploration concept includes orogenic gold and intrusion-related magmatic-hydrothermal systems, a broad family that can include porphyry, epithermal, skarn, manto and intrusion-related gold mineralisation. ND41 sits in the same broader metallogenic belt. Reconnaissance has identified structural fabrics, quartz and carbonate veining, and epidote-rich alteration within porphyritic volcanic and subvolcanic rocks. These are geological ingredients capable of justifying more work, but the independent geologist makes clear that no deposit-scale intrusive centre or diagnostic mineralised system has been confirmed. NS142 sits farther north in the Nuqrah-As Safra belt. It is considered conceptually prospective for orogenic gold and VMS-style copper-gold mineralisation within volcanic and volcaniclastic rocks cut by faults and dykes. Vision 2030 – Opening the Arabian Shield Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 is doing considerably more than encouraging mineral exploration. The Kingdom wants mining to become the third pillar of its economy, alongside oil and gas and petrochemicals, as part of a deliberate strategy to diversify away from its historic dependence on hydrocarbons. Saudi authorities now estimate the country has around US$2.5 trillion of mineral resource potential, much of it within the underexplored Arabian Shield. To bring that potential into the investment market, Saudi Arabia has introduced a new Mining Investment Law, streamlined exploration licensing, released extensive government geological and geophysical datasets, opened the industry to 100% foreign-owned companies, and introduced financial incentives designed to reduce the cost and risk of exploration. The government is also progressively releasing large areas through competitive exploration licence rounds and supporting early-stage explorers through its Mining Exploration Enablement Program. Importantly, Almasar Minerals is not arriving in isolation. Australian-listed explorers are increasingly moving into Saudi Arabia as the reforms begin attracting the same exploration capital and expertise that have traditionally flowed into jurisdictions such as Western Australia, Africa and Canada. Peako Ltd (ASX: PKO) is building a Saudi gold strategy around six projects covering about 862 square kilometres in the Central Arabian Gold Region; Sierra Nevada Gold (ASX: SNX) has established a Saudi subsidiary and is advancing its As Safra copper-gold project; while Metal Bank Ltd (ASX: MBK) has been pursuing copper and critical minerals through its Saudi joint venture, including the 427-square-kilometre Wadi al Junah copper-zinc-gold-silver project. What makes Almasar different, however, is the way it has entered the Australian market. Rather than an existing ASX company subsequently acquiring Saudi assets, Almasar has come to market through a front-door IPO built around Saudi Arabian exploration assets. That makes its successful A$12 million raising and ASX listing particularly interesting: it suggests Saudi Arabia is moving beyond being simply an emerging exploration destination and is beginning to attract dedicated companies capable of raising Australian equity capital around the Saudi opportunity itself. What Has Actually Been Found? The independent technical assessment reports no Mineral Resources, no Ore Reserves and no asset valuation. It describes the mineralisation potential as conceptual and based largely on geological setting, regional analogues and limited exploration results (Figure 3). Figure 3: Regional geology of the arabican sheild (Source: IPO Prospectus) At NS142, public records identify two gossanous occurrences in volcanic and volcaniclastic rocks, with gold recorded as a minor commodity. Historic drill collars were also observed during site reconnaissance, carrying identifiers and indicated depths of approximately 200 to 213 metres. However, no drill logs, assays, collar tables or technical reports are available. The original operator and purpose of the drilling are unknown. Those collars demonstrate that someone drilled the ground; they do not demonstrate what the drilling found. Almasar's soil work at NS142 has outlined multi-element enrichment, including arsenic and antimony with local gold and copper responses. These patterns may help direct follow-up work towards structurally focused hydrothermal systems. They are exploration vectors rather than evidence of an economic discovery. Across ND28 and ND36, a limited historical Ma'aden dataset contains 99 reconnaissance soil samples. Gold values ranged from 0.01 to 2.8 parts per billion, while the broader results showed weak copper-gold-silver responses. The independent report says these data do not define a coherent, high-amplitude anomaly, and Almasar places no reliance on them. No verified historical drill collars were identified within ND28, ND31, ND36 or ND41. At ND41, possible historical trenching, quartz veining and strong local epidote alteration provide reasons to conduct modern fieldwork. They do not yet establish mineralisation. This distinction is central to the IPO. Almasar has secured a potentially interesting geological position, but it still has to convert regional prospectivity into ranked targets, convert targets into drill intersections, and then determine whether any intersection belongs to a system with scale and grade. There are several value-creating steps ahead. There are also several points at which the geological thesis can fail. Where the Money Goes With the proceeds, the company aims to execute the following for two years after listing. Table 2: Use of funds Use of funds Minimum raise Maximum raise Exploration and development A$4.479m A$7.936m Salaries A$1.120m A$1.122m Consultants A$0.492m A$0.492m Field and central office costs A$0.269m A$0.270m Working capital A$1.105m A$1.497m Offer costs A$0.805m A$0.953m Total available funds A$8.270m A$12.270m At the minimum raise, 54.16 per cent of available funds is directed to exploration and development. At the maximum, this rises to 64.68 per cent. The exploration budget is staged deliberately. Table 3: Exploration Budget Exploration activity Minimum raise Maximum raise Remote sensing A$0.175m A$0.310m Mapping A$0.426m A$0.755m Surface geochemistry A$0.381m A$0.675m Geophysics A$0.431m A$0.765m Drilling A$2.189m A$3.877m Assays A$0.877m A$1.554m Total exploration A$4.479m A$7.936m Drilling is the largest component, but most of it is budgeted for the second year. Under the minimum case, only A$350,000 of the A$2.189 million drilling budget sits in Year 1. Under the maximum case, Year 1 drilling is A$618,000 of a total A$3.877 million. The first phase is primarily about building the target pipeline through remote sensing, mapping, surface sampling and geophysics. More substantial drilling follows only if that work produces targets with sufficient geological, geochemical and geophysical support. That is technically sensible for early-stage ground. It also means investors should not assume the entire portfolio will be drilled immediately after listing. Who Is Running Almasar? The strength of the Almasar proposition is probably most visible in its leadership team. Dr Brock Salier, Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director, combines geology with resource capital markets. The prospectus says he was a founder and co-owner of Sprott Capital Partners/SCP Resource Finance, where he was involved in more than C$5 billion of capital raisings across more than 110 equity placements in the five years to 2023. Earlier roles included Rio Tinto, Accenture and GMP Europe. Christoph Naudé, Executive Director and Chief Operating Officer, has worked across investment banking, structured credit and natural-resources projects in frontier markets. He is based in Riyadh, giving the company operational presence in Saudi Arabia rather than managing the portfolio entirely from Perth. Dr John Mair, Independent Non-Executive Chairman, brings more than two decades of geology and mining-company leadership, including previous responsibility for advancing the Kvanefjeld rare-earth project in Greenland. Dr Christian Grainger, Independent Non-Executive Director, has more than 25 years of field experience and was a co-founder of Collective Mining and Cordoba Minerals. His background also includes Continental Gold, which was acquired by Zijin Mining, and work across major gold and copper systems in Latin America. Aaron Bertolatti, Non-Executive Director and Company Secretary, contributes ASX governance, accounting and corporate compliance experience. The board and management team collectively hold 38.55 million shares, representing 33.53 per cent of the company at the minimum subscription or 28.56 per cent at the maximum. That creates meaningful alignment, but it also concentrates influence. Dr Salier alone is expected to hold 22.40 per cent at the minimum raise or 19.08 per cent at the maximum. Approximately 47.44 million existing shares are expected to be restricted under ASX escrow arrangements, including approximately 46.38 million shares for 24 months and 1.05 million shares for 12 months. None of the IPO shares is expected to be restricted. Financial Position and Future Funding Almasar is pre-revenue and loss-making. The Australian parent recorded a loss of A$59,614 and net liabilities of A$59,613 for the short period from incorporation to 31 December 2025. The underlying Abu Dhabi holding group recorded a loss of AED2.95 million for the year ended 31 December 2025, reflecting staff, consulting, exploration, travel and establishment costs. After the IPO adjustments, pro forma net assets are approximately is A$12.16 million. The funding is expected to cover approximately two years. Because Almasar has no operating revenue, further financing will be required if the company is to continue exploration beyond that program or accelerate a discovery. This is normal for an early-stage explorer, but it should remain part of the investment calculation. Success can require more capital just as easily as failure. A promising discovery generally increases the amount of drilling required before a resource can be defined. Samso Concluding Comments What makes Almasar Minerals interesting to Samso is that there are really two stories developing at the same time. The first is the corporate story. Almasar has become the first Saudi Arabia-focused exploration company to complete a conventional ASX IPO under the Kingdom’s modern mining framework. That is significant because it provides Australian investors with a direct entry point into Saudi Arabia’s increasingly ambitious mining strategy, rather than exposure being added later to an existing ASX company. The A$12 million maximum subscription and the positive first-day trading response suggest that investors have recognised that distinction. The second story — and ultimately the more important one — is geological. Almasar has five granted exploration licences covering approximately 419.8 square kilometres across geological belts considered prospective for gold and copper systems. But investors need to recognise exactly where the company sits on the exploration curve. There are currently no Mineral Resources, no Ore Reserves and no independently established asset valuation. The opportunity remains conceptual and has to be converted progressively from geological potential into targets, drilling and, hopefully, mineralised intersections. This is where I think the Almasar proposition becomes more interesting. At the IPO price, the company came to market with a market capitalisation of approximately A$27 million and around A$12.04 million of pro-forma cash, implying an enterprise value of roughly A$15 million. In simple terms, investors are currently placing that value on the Saudi portfolio, the management team and their ability to generate discoveries. There is substance behind that proposition. The licences are granted, management has an in-country presence, the board brings significant geological and capital-markets experience, and almost A$7.94 million of the maximum funding scenario has been allocated to exploration and development over the initial program. Importantly, the company is not rushing immediately into a large drilling campaign. The first phase is designed to use remote sensing, mapping, geochemistry and geophysics to identify and rank targets before committing the larger drilling expenditure. For unexplored ground, that is a sensible approach. Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 provides an attractive macro backdrop, and Almasar's front-door IPO may ultimately prove to be an important milestone in connecting Saudi mineral opportunities with Australian exploration capital. But a favourable jurisdiction, supportive government policy and an experienced management team cannot substitute for what needs to happen in the field. For me, the milestones are therefore quite straightforward. Show me the geochemistry. Show me the geophysics. Show me which targets survive the process. And then show me what the drilling discovers. The market has already shown that it is prepared to give Almasar the opportunity. Now the geology needs to do the talking. Cover photo: ISS036-E-48651 - View of Saudi Arabia, Earth Science and Remote Sensing Unit, Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center. Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:ISS036-E-48651_-_View_of_Saudi_Arabia.jpg) The Samso Way – Seek the Research Here at Samso, we pride ourselves on delivering content for investors that is independent and informed by over three decades of experience in the industry. Our content is well-researched and is only created if I see merit in discussing the company's story. Our mission is simple: cut through the noise and spotlight what matters—genuine stories, grounded insights, and real opportunity. Our content is well-researched and is only created if the team sees merit in discussing the company or concept. Investors can explore our three core platforms: Coffee with Samso Samso Insights Samso News There may be numerous paths to success in investing, but the common thread among successful individuals is that they remain committed to making informed decisions. Equip yourself with the right knowledge and tools, and you will be well on your way to achieving your financial goals. Most importantly, investors need to be absolutely diligent in understanding their own risk-reward tolerance and capabilities. Never bite off more than you can chew. As they say, Rome wasn’t built in a day, and the Great Wall stood because it took centuries to complete. The Samso Philosophy: Stay curious. Stay sharp. And remember—digging deeper always uncovers the real value. In Life, there is no such thing as a Free Lunch. Never bite off more than you can chew is my parting comment. Happy Investing, and the only four-letter word you need to know is DYOR. To support our independent work, please head over to our Support Page and give us a helping hand in any of the ways listed. This is a new initiative for the Samso Platform, and it was always the concept of Samso when we started this journey in 2018. Disclaimer The information or opinions provided herein do not constitute investment advice, an offer, or solicitation to subscribe for, purchase, or sell the investment product(s) mentioned herein. It does not take into consideration, nor have any regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation, risk profile, tax position and particular, or unique needs and constraints. Read full Disclaimer. About Samso Samso is a trusted platform that equips dedicated investors with up-to-date industry knowledge and insights from top CEOs and thought leaders. By staying informed on business advancements and market trends, investors can enhance their financial decisions through a combination of expert guidance and their own research. Samso News | www.samso.com.au | An Investor Lens on ASX-Listed Companies

  • OD6 Metals (ASX: OD6) Expands the Interpreted Mammoth Fluorspar Target at Quinn, Nevada, by More Than Half

    OD6 Metals has remapped and resampled the Mammoth prospect at its Quinn Fluorspar Project in Nevada. The interpreted target has grown from about 9,000 square metres to more than 14,000. OD6 now describes Mammoth as a bulk tonnage target, a different style to the very high grades it has reported at Horseshoe and Big Jim. All of it is surface work, and Mammoth has not been drilled. Samso News Critical Minerals Fluorspar Samso Investment Strategy Samso has followed OD6 Metals since it took an option over the Quinn Fluorspar Project in March 2026. Most of what has come out of Quinn since has been about grade. Horseshoe channel sampling averages 74.8% calcium fluoride across 120 samples after an August re-assay, and Big Jim carries historical assays above 90%. [R8] [R5] Mammoth has always been the lower-grade of the three. The announcement of 7 September 2026 is about area rather than grade. [R1] OD6 has remapped Mammoth, put the interpreted footprint at more than 14,000 square metres against the roughly 9,000 it presented in April, and released channel sampling from eight benches. The Announcement OD6 Metals Limited (ASX: OD6) released assays from mapping, channel sampling and rock chip sampling at Mammoth on 7 September 2026. The release is on the company website and on the ASX announcements platform. [R1] Mammoth is one of seven prospect areas making up the Quinn Fluorspar Project, in Nye and Lincoln Counties in central Nevada, about 220 kilometres north of Las Vegas. OD6 holds 226 mining claims, the unit of tenure on United States federal land, over about 1,890 hectares, and owns the project outright after completing the acquisition in August 2026. [R6] FIG. 01 shows the claim blocks and the named prospects. Fluorspar is the commercial name for fluorite, a calcium fluoride mineral, and grades are quoted as CaF₂ per cent. It is the feedstock for hydrofluoric acid, which goes into refrigerants, aluminium smelting, semiconductor etching and uranium processing. The United States was 100% net import reliant for it in 2025, with no significant US mine production reported since 1995. [R9] FIG. 01 The Quinn Fluorspar Project claim position in Nye and Lincoln Counties, Nevada, with the seven claim areas outlined in red and the known fluorspar occurrences marked. Mammoth is the northernmost of them. Company map reproduced from a public ASX release, with attribution. OD6 Metals Limited, 7 September 2026, Figure 3 [R1]. Highlights, as Reported These are the company's figures, drawn from the 7 September release. [R1] The interpreted footprint has grown from about 9,000 square metres to more than 14,000, and as 14,300 in the body text. A breccia and stockwork system, meaning shattered rock and a dense network of small veins, is mapped for more than 300 metres at surface and up to about 100 metres across. It is open east beneath talus, the loose broken rock at the base of a slope, and open north, where it appears to run beneath a hard silica-altered cap. A southern tail mapped by Evans in 1975 has not been found in outcrop. [R7] Channel sampling across eight benches is in Table 01. The best single assay was 85.9% CaF₂, and rock chips ran to 78.3% and 54.5%. OD6 calls Mammoth a priority drill target. It puts US acidspar at US$654 per tonne in July 2026, up about 29% over three quarters, sourced to ChemAnalyst. FIG. 02 plots every channel and rock chip result on the mapped geology, with the individual bench intercepts labelled. FIG. 02 Channel sampling and rock chip results at Mammoth, plotted on the mapped geology. Circles are bench channel samples and squares are rock chips, both coloured by CaF₂ grade. The pink area is the interpreted fluorspar zone. Company map reproduced from a public ASX release, with attribution. OD6 Metals Limited, 7 September 2026, Figure 1 [R1]. Where Mammoth Fits Against the Rest of Quinn In April 2026, Samso reported one channel result from Mammoth, 12 metres at 40.8% CaF₂, with a mapped zone of about 9,000 square metres. [R3] That interval is the Middle3 bench, now 42.0% after re-assay and still the best bench in the set. The new work covers eight benches rather than one, and the picture is wider and lower in grade. Seven of the eight average between 13.2% and 24.1% CaF₂. The release describes the sampling as covering a broad zone with widely spaced samples, so the lower averages reflect how much ground was covered rather than a change in the April result. OD6 calls Mammoth a different target style to Horseshoe and Big Jim, and its potential bulk tonnage source. The difference is grade rather than width. Horseshoe is a broad zone too, 80 metres wide at surface over a body the company puts at 15 to 30 metres thick, and its 120 channel samples average 74.8% CaF₂. [R8] Mammoth is the larger mapped area at much lower grade. FIG. 03 shows the fluorspar zones, the eight benches and the three open directions. FIG. 03 The full Mammoth target area, showing the interpreted 14,000 square metre fluorspar footprint and the three directions the company describes as open. Two arrows mark ground open under talus cover, one marks the plunge beneath the limestone cap, and the southern tail is annotated as obscured and projected from Evans, 1975. Company map reproduced from a public ASX release, with attribution. OD6 Metals Limited, 7 September 2026, Figure 2 [R1]. What the Release Does Not Settle The headline intercept of 44 metres at 29% CaF₂ is two benches added together rather than one continuous channel. The release gives the components as 32 metres at 24.1% on Middle4 and 12 metres at 42.0% on Middle3, and lists them separately in its own table. Length-weighting the two gives 29.0%, which is Samso's arithmetic and matches the reported figure. The highlights carry the 44 metres without those two figures beside it, and quote four of the eight intercepts, the three left out being the lowest in the set. These are surface channel samples cut across excavated benches, not drill intercepts. A width measured across a bench face is not a true thickness and says nothing about how far the mineralisation goes down. OD6 interprets the body as steeply dipping, in a dilational zone where two strike-slip faults pull the ground apart. [R1] That is a reason to expect depth rather than a measurement of it. There has been no drilling at Mammoth and no JORC Mineral Resource anywhere at Quinn. A footprint is an area, and without a depth no tonnage follows from it. OD6 cites US$654 per tonne for US acidspar in July 2026, from ChemAnalyst data it accessed on 5 August 2026. [R8] Samso reported around US$560 per tonne in June 2026, also from an OD6 announcement. [R5] Both are quoted as published. Leadership Commentary Managing Director Brett Hazelden addressed scale rather than grade. "The key takeaway from these latest results is scale. Detailed mapping and sampling have increased the interpreted Mammoth target footprint by more than 50%, from approximately 9,000m² to >14,000m², with a mineralised breccia and stockwork system extending for more than 300 metres and remaining open beneath cover." Brett Hazelden, Managing Director, OD6 Metals Limited [R1] He also said the next step is drilling, and that drilling will begin to establish the true scale of Mammoth. No drilling date is given in the release. Near-term Milestones to Watch A maiden drill programme at Mammoth, for which no date has been given. Metallurgical and ore sorting testwork aimed at metspar and acidspar products, which OD6 says is running. Permitting. Environmental baseline and archaeological studies are running, with drilling and bulk sampling approvals in preparation. Further results from Horseshoe and Big Jim, which carry the high grades. US federal programs. OD6 registered on SAM.gov on 1 September 2026 and says it will assess Defense Logistics Agency and other federal pathways as Quinn advances. [R9] Samso Concluding Comments In my opinion, OD6 is building two arguments at Quinn and this announcement belongs to the second one. Horseshoe and Big Jim are the grade story. Mammoth is the tonnage story, measured in area and continuity rather than peak assays. On that measure the release does what it says. The footprint is bigger and the sampling covers eight benches instead of one. All of it is still at surface. There is no resource, no cash flow and no production, and OD6 remains an exploration company doing exploration work. Drilling Mammoth, testing Horseshoe at depth, running metallurgy and permitting are four calls on one balance sheet, and OD6 also has a rare earth project and a copper project. Previous Samso Coverage of OD6 Metals Samso has written on OD6 Metals since October 2022, and on the Quinn Fluorspar Project since the option was taken in March 2026. Every piece is listed below, newest first, so the whole thread can be read in order. The three entries marked in gold are Coffee with Samso interviews rather than written pieces. The Quinn fluorspar thread, 2026 5 AUGUST 2026 OD6 Metals (ASX: OD6) Completes Acquisition of District-Scale High-Grade Quinn Fluorspar Project in Nevada Ownership moves from option to outright. The 226 claims, the seven prospect areas and what A$200,000 actually bought. 14 JULY 2026 OD6 Metals (ASX: OD6) High-Grade Sampling Results and an 8 km Corridor Build the Quinn Fluorspar Case Horseshoe channel results and the soil geochemistry that opened up an 8 kilometre mineralised corridor. 21 JUNE 2026 OD6 Metals (ASX: OD6) Nevada's Quinn Delivers High-Grade Fluorspar Cleaner Than Global Peers Impurities and product specifications. Where Quinn material lands against metspar and acidspar, and against producers overseas. 28 MAY 2026 OD6 Metals Limited (ASX: OD6) Quinn Fluorspar Builds the Grade and Processing Case in Nevada The historic Union Carbide drilling and metallurgical records, including the Mammoth testwork quoted in this article. 19 MAY 2026 OD6 Metals Limited (ASX: OD6) Australian Critical Minerals Company Advancing Fluorspar, Rare Earths and Copper The rediscovery of the Big Jim lode, the third high-grade system at Quinn, and the 1947 record behind it. 17 APRIL 2026 OD6 Metals Developing The Quinns Fluorspar Begins in Earnest The first modern field work in about 60 years. The April Mammoth and Horseshoe channel results, including the 12 metres now re-assayed at 42.0% CaF₂. COFFEE WITH SAMSO 4 APRIL 2026 OD6 Metals Explains US Critical Minerals Opportunity with Quinn Fluorspar Project Brett Hazelden and Dr Darren Holden on why the company moved into fluorspar. 18 MARCH 2026 OD6 Metals Advances Critical Minerals Strategy with New Appointment Julie Bishop & Partners appointed as strategic advisers, and what that says about the policy doors OD6 is aiming at. 16 MARCH 2026 OD6 Metals Expands Quinn Fluorspar District in Nevada Additional claims staked over the strike extensions of six historical deposits, Mammoth among them. 9 MARCH 2026 OD6 Metals Acquires Quinn Fluorspar Project in Nevada The pivot into fluorspar. The option terms, the historical workings and why the United States cares about this mineral. Earlier coverage, the rare earth and copper years COFFEE WITH SAMSO 9 NOVEMBER 2025 Coffee with Samso: OD6 Metals Limited, An Aspiring Australian Clay REE Story, Better Position Second Time Around Splinter Rock heap leach metallurgy and the Gulf Creek copper project in New South Wales. 10 SEPTEMBER 2025 OD6 Metals (ASX: OD6) Major Flowsheet Advancements at Splinter Rock Rare Earth Project The onsite chlor-alkali plan that would take an 800 kilometre acid haul out of the Splinter Rock flowsheet. COFFEE WITH SAMSO 26 OCTOBER 2022 OD6 Metals Limited (ASX: OD6) The Rare Earth Elements Story Episode 158, the first Samso conversation with OD6, on the Goldfields-Esperance clay rare earth projects. The Vocabulary, in Plain English References and Sources Figures reproduced in this article are the company's own maps from the public ASX release, credited in each caption. Where the company's documents give two different figures for the same thing, both are quoted as published and the document each came from is named. This article does not attempt to resolve them. Where Samso does its own arithmetic on company figures, it is labelled as Samso's calculation. Market-sensitive figures are stated as at the dates given. [R1] OD6 Metals Limited, "Mammoth Fluorspar Target Extends by Over 50%", ASX announcement, 7 September 2026. [R2] OD6 Metals Limited, Mammoth channel sampling, ASX announcement, 9 April 2026, referred to in [R1]. [R3] Samso, "OD6 Metals, Developing The Quinns Fluorspar Begins in Earnest", samso.com.au, 17 April 2026. [R4] Samso, "OD6 Metals Limited (ASX: OD6), Quinn Fluorspar Builds the Grade and Processing Case in Nevada", samso.com.au, 28 May 2026. [R5] Samso, "OD6 Metals (ASX: OD6): Nevada's Quinn Delivers High-Grade Fluorspar Cleaner Than Global Peers", samso.com.au, 21 June 2026. [R6] Samso, "OD6 Metals (ASX: OD6) Completes Acquisition of District-Scale High-Grade Quinn Fluorspar Project in Nevada", samso.com.au, 5 August 2026. [R7] Evans, D.L.C. (1975). "Geology and Indicated Reserves, Quinn Canyon Range Fluorspar". Consultant report on file, Nevada Bureau of Mines and Geology. Cited in [R1]. [R8] OD6 Metals Limited, "Horseshoe Channel Re-assays Confirm Materially Higher Grade Fluorspar From Surface", ASX announcement, 25 August 2026. [R9] OD6 Metals Limited, "OD6 Positions Quinn for US Federal Critical Minerals Programs", ASX announcement, 1 September 2026. Cover image: AI-generated illustrative Basin and Range landscape, made for Samso. It is not a photograph of the Quinn project. The Samso Way – Seek the Research Here at Samso, we pride ourselves on delivering content for investors that is independent and informed by over three decades of experience in the industry. Our content is well-researched and is only created if I see merit in discussing the company's story. Our mission is simple: cut through the noise and spotlight what matters—genuine stories, grounded insights, and real opportunity. Our content is well-researched and is only created if the team sees merit in discussing the company or concept. Investors can explore our three core platforms: Coffee with Samso Samso Insights Samso News There may be numerous paths to success in investing, but the common thread among successful individuals is that they remain committed to making informed decisions. Equip yourself with the right knowledge and tools, and you will be well on your way to achieving your financial goals. Most importantly, investors need to be absolutely diligent in understanding their own risk-reward tolerance and capabilities. Never bite off more than you can chew. As they say, Rome wasn't built in a day, and the Great Wall stood because it took centuries to complete. The Samso Philosophy: Stay curious. Stay sharp. And remember—digging deeper always uncovers the real value. In Life, there is no such thing as a Free Lunch. Never bite off more than you can chew is my parting comment. Happy Investing, and the only four-letter word you need to know is DYOR. To support our independent work, please head over to our Support Page and give us a helping hand in any of the ways listed. This is a new initiative for the Samso Platform, and it was always the concept of Samso when we started this journey in 2018. Disclaimer The information or opinions provided herein do not constitute investment advice, an offer, or solicitation to subscribe for, purchase, or sell the investment product(s) mentioned herein. It does not take into consideration, nor have any regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation, risk profile, tax position and particular, or unique needs and constraints. Read full Disclaimer. About Samso Samso is a trusted platform that equips dedicated investors with up-to-date industry knowledge and insights from top CEOs and thought leaders. By staying informed on business advancements and market trends, investors can enhance their financial decisions through a combination of expert guidance and their own research. The Investor's Playbook is an open-ended, evergreen educational series about how to think about investing rather than what to buy. Samso Insights | www.samso.com.au | An Investor Lens on ASX-Listed Companies Samso Insights are independent research commentary for general information only. Nothing in this document is financial product advice, and it does not take into account any reader's objectives, financial situation or needs. Figures are drawn from public sources believed reliable at the stated dates but are not guaranteed; market-sensitive numbers change daily. Samso or associated parties may hold positions in, or have commercial arrangements with, companies mentioned. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions. © Samso 2026 · samso.com.au

  • The Calcium Curse — why a tungsten skarn fights back at the mill

    In the previous Samso Insights - Understanding Tungsten - Part 1- "Reading the Skarn — where tungsten hides in the contact", calcium was the hero: it trapped tungsten as scheelite and built the orebody. In this discussion, it becomes the villain. The same calcium leaves scheelite surrounded by look-alike minerals — calcite, fluorite, apatite — that are almost impossible to tell apart in a flotation cell. This is why a high-grade skarn can still be a hard business. Samso Insights Research Note Understanding Tungsten - Part 2 Geology Series WHAT THIS PIECE COVERS 1.00 WHY THE EFFORT IS WORTH IT Tungsten in sixty seconds, and why anyone bothers with the difficulty. 2.00 WHERE TUNGSTEN LIVES - RECAP Four deposit types, and why skarns lead. 3.00 THE ROOT PROBLEM The calcium curse, stated in one idea. 4.00 THE TARGET Getting from 1 per cent rock to a 65 per cent concentrate. 5.00 LEVER ONE Physics first, gravity and magnetism. 6.00 LEVER TWO Why flotation is unavoidable, and how it works. 7.00 THE REAGENT KIT, PART A Collectors, and what makes them grab the scheelite. 8.00 THE REAGENT KIT, PART B Depressants, and what holds the gangue down. 9.00 THE 80-YEAR-OLD HAMMER The Petrov process, a 1940 answer still in use. 10.00 HOW REAL MINES COPE The same problem, solved differently at every mine. 11.00 WHERE IT'S HEADING Greener chemistry, and computers taking on some of the guesswork. 12.00 SAMSO CONCLUDING COMMENTS So how do you actually treat a tungsten skarn? 1.00 — WHY THE EFFORT IS WORTH IT Tungsten in sixty seconds Before the challenge of processing, comes the reward. Tungsten stands out in metallurgy due to its exceptional properties: it has the highest melting point of any metal and a density close to that of gold. This makes it a preferred choice for cutting tools, armor, and aerospace applications. Additionally, tungsten is rare, difficult to recycle, hard to replace, and approximately 80% of it is sourced from China. This is why the EU considers it a critical raw material.

  • From villain to dividend — the fluorite hiding in tungsten skarns

    In Part 2, fluorite was the villain — the calcium look-alike that makes a tungsten concentrate so hard to clean. But fluorite (fluorspar) is itself a critical mineral. So the question writes itself: if you can separate it, is the troublemaker actually a second product? The literature says yes — with conditions. Here is the evidence, sourced. Samso Insights Research Note Understanding Tungsten - Part 3 Samso Geology Series WHAT THIS PIECE COVERS 1.00 THE PIVOT One mineral, two destinies, and why the villain of Part 1 is worth a second look. 2.00 FLUORSPAR 101 What fluorite is, and why it is worth recovering at all. 3.00 WHY THE WEST CARES A critical mineral with a concentrated supply chain. 4.00 THE GEOLOGICAL GIFT The same fluids build both minerals, which is why they sit together. 5.00 THE PROCESSING PIVOT One separation, two saleable concentrates. 6.00 THE EVIDENCE What the published work actually demonstrates, and where it comes from. 7.00 THE HONEST CATCH Grade is the whole game, and the gap between metspar and acidspar is wide. 8.00 THE VALUE PROOF-POINT What OD6's Quinn project shows, and what it does not. 1.00 — THE PIVOT One mineral, two destinies As we conclude the Understanding Tungsten series, we come to balance out the view of why the skarn tungsten deposits dominate the space. In Part 2, we talked about the issues of processing tungsten with "contaminants" complicating the discussion. Everything in Part 2 treated fluorite (CaF₂) as the enemy, being the main gangue mineral whose surface is so close to scheelite's that fatty acids float both, diluting the tungsten concentrate. That is all true.

  • Samso Market Update: Banks and Miners Pull ASX to a Three-Month Low

    Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | 4:30 pm AEST The Australian market finished Tuesday at a three-month low, with the ASX 200 falling 80.5 points, or 0.92%, to 8,669.40 as selling across banks and resources outweighed buying in healthcare and technology. The benchmark recovered slightly from its session low of 8,657.10, but closed approximately 6.7% below its 52-week high of 9,296.70. Most of the damage occurred before midday, with the closing level only 4.1 points below the late-morning reading. Near market close sector readings showed Materials, Financials and Energy lower, alongside Industrials, Utilities and Real Estate. Healthcare, Consumer Staples, Consumer Discretionary, Information Technology and Communication Services provided support, although their gains could not overcome weakness in the heavyweight sectors. Technology’s resilience had a useful overseas connection. US software shares had rallied while semiconductor stocks fell, helping explain why concerns around AI development did not produce uniform selling across Australian technology companies. For the broader market, oil and borrowing costs remained more difficult influences. Brent crude was around US$107.20 a barrel in afternoon trading, while Australia’s 10-year government bond yield reached 5.40%, its highest since May 2011, and the three-year yield rose to 5%. Higher fuel and financing costs create pressure on business margins while making equity valuations harder to sustain. China’s latest economic figures added another consideration for resources investors. Industrial production increased 5.2% year-on-year, but retail sales grew only 0.4%, while fixed-asset investment fell 7.2% over the first eight months. That combination showed stronger factory activity alongside weak domestic spending and investment, offering limited reassurance for a sustained improvement in commodity demand. Despite the broader decline, several smaller companies attracted substantial buying. At Latrobe Magnesium and Panther Metals were each up 40%, while Stelar Metals had gained 27.45%. SRJ Technologies and Blue Energy rose 25%, Aucyber added 21.43%, and Great Bear Exploration and ReadCloud gained 20% each. These were afternoon readings, rather than confirmed closing changes. Turnover put those gains into perspective: approximately 50.3 million Latrobe Magnesium shares and 17 million Panther Metals shares changed hands, compared with just 4,143 Blue Energy shares. For me, the session showed that buying interest remained alive beneath a weakening headline index. However, with banks and miners retreating together, stronger performances elsewhere were insufficient to arrest the broader decline. The next question is whether those heavyweight sectors can find support while oil prices and bond yields remain elevated. Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | 12 pm AEST The modest decline flagged before the opening bell developed into a more substantial retreat by midday, with the ASX 200 falling 76.4 points, or 0.87%, to 8,673.50 - as ASX retreats to a two-month low. The index had found little sustained buying support throughout the morning. However, the weakness was uneven. The Small Ordinaries slipped just 0.12% to 3,343.10, outperforming the main index by approximately 0.75 percentage points, while several sectors remained positive. The international backdrop helps explain the cautious mood. Continued disruption to Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, an important alternative to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, kept oil supply and inflation concerns in focus. For Australian businesses, the implications extend through diesel, freight and operating costs, particularly if the interruption persists. Those pressures arrive alongside higher bond yields and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate increase. Questions surrounding the pace of AI development have also unsettled technology investors, adding to the uncertainty over growth expectations and valuations. Interestingly, Information Technology and Healthcare showed the strongest positive sector readings locally, with Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples and Communication Services also positive. Technology’s resilience suggested the overnight AI concerns were not translating into uniform selling across the Australian market. Against that, Materials, Financials, Energy, Industrials, Utilities and Real Estate were negative. Weakness in Materials and Financials was particularly relevant to the headline index, given their substantial representation, while Energy’s decline showed that stronger oil was not delivering an automatic lift to producers’ shares. The commodity backdrop reinforced that uneven picture. At the September 14 close, WTI was positive across the daily, weekly and monthly periods, while silver, gold, palladium, platinum, copper, nickel, lead, tin and zinc recorded daily declines. Tin and zinc showed particularly pronounced weakness, and copper was lower across all three shorter periods. Nevertheless, copper, tin, zinc and silver remained positive over one year. Brent crude rose 1.6% to US$106.30 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate gained 1.9% to US$101.94. Within small caps, LMG gained 70% on 26.13 million shares, PNT rose 40% on 11.86 million, and CVB advanced 30% on 8.87 million. SLB added 19.61% and CYB gained 19.05%. BP8’s displayed 1,233.33% rise came on only 33,000 shares. The other side was equally sharp: IBR fell 44.44%, CGR lost 39.19%, ROG declined 33.33%, BRY dropped 31.58%, RPM fell 26.67% and OVT lost 25%. ROG traded 275.12 million shares as its price fell 0.1 cents. For me, the important distinction is that a weak ASX 200 has not meant weakness everywhere. Smaller companies and several sectors have held up better, making the distribution of buying and selling more informative than the headline decline alone. Monday’s market offered a few clues for ASX Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | 9:30 am AEST The ASX 200 finished Monday up 8.7 points at 8,749.90, while the All Ordinaries added 3.7 points to 8,923.90. It was a small improvement, with healthcare and consumer staples providing support as the major miners moved lower. CSL, ResMed and Pro Medicus advanced, while Woolworths, Coles and A2 Milk helped the consumer staples sector. Weakness in BHP, Rio Tinto and Fortescue offset much of that progress. There were also individual company developments to keep investors occupied. Cleanaway gained following a takeover proposal from EQT Infrastructure, while Telix Pharmaceuticals advanced on news of US Food and Drug Administration approval for its Pixclara brain-cancer imaging product. These are useful reminders that company announcements can still drive share prices when the broader market lacks direction. The challenge is understanding whether an announcement changes the business’s earnings outlook, funding position or development pathway—and how much of that improvement the share price already reflects. Wall Street reassesses the AI trade US markets finished lower as calls from technology industry leaders for a coordinated slowdown in AI development introduced another uncertainty into the sector. The Dow Jones fell 0.3% to 52,421.20, the S&P 500 declined 0.5% to 7,619.98 and the Nasdaq lost 0.6% to 26,186.41. Nvidia dropped 3.4%, while Corning, Teradyne and Coherent recorded double-digit declines. However, the market recovered from its opening lows, and more S&P 500 companies ultimately advanced than declined. Cybersecurity stocks were particularly strong, with CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks rising sharply. Autodesk, Intuit and Adobe also recovered ground. I would be careful about reading this as a single verdict on technology. The dispersion suggests investors are reassessing where the spending will go, which businesses may benefit and what valuations they are prepared to support. For ASX investors following the AI theme, the useful questions remain quite practical: who is paying for the product, how much revenue is being generated, and what will it cost to deliver that growth? Those questions become more pressing when the cost of capital rises. Oil is feeding into the interest-rate discussion Brent crude rose 1.6% to US$106.30 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate gained 1.9% to US$101.94. The advance followed reports that Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline could remain closed for several weeks after an attack. The pipeline’s role in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz makes the disruption significant. Markets are having to assess both the immediate interruption and the reliability of alternative transport routes. For Australian resources companies, higher oil has different consequences depending on the business. Oil producers may benefit from stronger realised prices, although hedging and operating performance influence how much reaches the accounts. Miners face potential pressure through diesel, freight and contractor costs. This is where I would spend time reading the operating numbers. A stronger selling price for one commodity does not automatically protect a company from rising costs elsewhere. The inflation implications are also keeping bond markets alert. The US 10-year Treasury yield briefly exceeded 5% before finishing at 4.99%, while the two-year yield rose to 4.66%. The supplied market pricing points to an almost fully anticipated Federal Reserve rate increase this week, with further increases expected through 2026 and 2027. The Fed’s decision is due early Thursday AEST. Its explanation of the inflation outlook may prove just as influential as the decision itself. Resources investors have China to watch Gold fell 1.1% to around US$4,300 an ounce, copper declined 1.7% to US$14,001 a tonne, and iron ore slipped 1% to US$95.80. Thermal coal edged higher to US$148.55 a tonne, while coking coal was unchanged at US$271. The Australian dollar also weakened to around US71.39 cents. A softer currency can support Australian-dollar revenue for exporters selling in US dollars, although imported equipment and other foreign-currency costs can offset part of that benefit. China’s August retail sales, industrial production and fixed-asset investment figures are today’s key releases for the resources sector. I will be watching what they suggest about underlying activity and demand, particularly for steelmaking materials and industrial metals. Samso Concluding Comments My focus this morning is on how higher energy costs and more expensive capital flow through to individual businesses. The market can spend a great deal of time debating the next central-bank decision, but companies still have to fund their activities, manage costs and deliver on their plans. For the smaller ASX companies, I would keep coming back to cash, upcoming expenditure and the next meaningful milestone. A worthwhile asset can still be a difficult investment if shareholders face repeated dilution before its value becomes clearer. There is no need to draw a sweeping conclusion from one weaker session. There is good reason, however, to revisit the assumptions behind a valuation when oil, interest rates and market expectations are moving together.

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