Tungsten: The Quiet Giant – Market Trends and Investment Pathways.
- Noel Ong
- May 25
- 17 min read
In my opinion, Tungsten should be one of the most critical metals on any investor's watchlist. The scarcity of the metal as an economical deposit, in my opinion, makes this metal high on the list. There are a few market factors that make Tungsten a very volatile commodity, and the China influence makes this metal difficult to predict in terms of its market value.
I have had a direct experience in this space, and I have seen it at its high in 2012 and low since then. The pricing and demand for the metal are shrouded in mystery, as the China market has absolute control.
Tungsten is not a new metal, and the tungsten market has been in existence. It has been growing more with the development of heavily armoured warships, penetrative ammunitions, and automotive industry at the beginning of the twentieth century [1].
As you can see in Figure 1, the price of Tungsten has been relatively flat apart from the peaks which represented World War 1 (1915-1918), Korean War (1951-1956), 1973-1978 and 2005, with a moderate rise during World War 2.
![Figure 1: Evolution of the tungsten inflation-adjusted price per metric tonne from 1900 to 2018. [1] | Samso Insights](https://static.wixstatic.com/media/8d6c37_2edbf40e03f24ccb83cbe6f5020d91e2~mv2.jpg/v1/fill/w_980,h_490,al_c,q_85,usm_0.66_1.00_0.01,enc_avif,quality_auto/8d6c37_2edbf40e03f24ccb83cbe6f5020d91e2~mv2.jpg)
Figure 1: Evolution of the tungsten inflation-adjusted price per metric tonne from 1900 to 2018. [1]
A more recent pricing for tungsten that uses the MTU unit, which is more akin to the market understanding these days, can be seen in Figure 2. The peaks around 2012 and 2014 have not been reached as yet since that time; however, I am hearing noises of the metal price reaching those heights again.
You can compare the highs between 2012 and 2014 in Figures 1 and 2. The sign of recovery can be seen in Figure 2 from 2016, and the continuation of that is in Figure 3.
Figure 2: The chart shows the tungsten price per metric tonne unit (10Kg) of ammoniumparatungstate (APT), a commonly traded form of tungsten. It is also the most important precursor to the majority of tungsten products. It is sold in bulker bags or lined drums up to 1T in weight. (www.marketcap.com.au)
The recovery from pricing is an interesting fact even though the price has yet to breach the USD400 mark. This is going to be an important stage, in my opinion, as a slow, steady breach, for me, will mean that the price is more sustainable. The price in 2014 was very sudden, and I think the market was not mature enough to take advantage of that, I think. The falling tungsten price from that peak has been ongoing since 2015, and the tungsten space has been pretty desolate since that time.
Figure 3: The tungsten price chart from 2019 to 2024. (www.g6m.com.au)
I have seen a few stories try to rise from the ashes over that time, especially in the last three years, but it is only in 2025 that I have seen the price start to move in the right direction.
Tungsten is not flashy. It doesn’t headline the battery revolution. But what it lacks in glamour, it makes up for in military-grade resilience. There is a good reason for seeing those peaks in Figure 1 when there is conflict. With the recent Gaza conflict and ongoing conflict in Ukraine, there is good reason to see the spike in the pricing. History has a good habit of repeating itself.
For decades, it sat quietly beneath the radar of investors and strategists. Today, that has changed. As the geopolitical chessboard reshapes mineral markets, tungsten has stepped out from the shadows.
For investors paying attention, is this one of the peaks related to an unusual amount of use in armaments, or is this the supply chain transformation finally in motion?
Use the chapters below as guideposts for navigating the tungsten story:
1.0 From Specialty Metal to Strategic Asset
Research shows that Tungsten is a specialty metal and is mostly used in defence. There are also other uses, such as a replacement for lead in uranium reactors and building space-age uses for its density and strength properties (Figure 4). However, the recent tightening of supply from China effectively red-flagged tungsten. Surprisingly, the West took notice this time, and the whole critical minerals discussion started to raise its head.
Hence, Tungsten is now considered mission-critical. Interestingly, it turns out you can’t build precision-guided munitions, advanced semiconductors, or hypersonic weapons without it. That’s not a future trend—that’s happening now.
Figure 4: The tungsten price chart from 2019 to 2024. (www.g6m.com.au)
As Almonty Industries highlighted,
“Tungsten is the most important among all raw materials”
for armor-piercing ammunition, missile components, radiation shielding, and hypersonic weapons.
2.0 When Prices Move, Signals Matter
This realignment has set the stage for what Project Blue analysts called “critical months ahead” for ASX tungsten companies in 2025.
APT prices tell the story. From US$335/mtu to US$385/mtu in just months (Figure 5). This is not speculative froth. It’s a structural revaluation. For a metal that rarely sees big price swings, that’s saying something.
Figure 5: Tungsten APT fob China (per mtu WO3) prices USD/mtu, 2025. (source: Argus Metals)
Investors need to understand that tungsten doesn’t behave like other commodities. It has inelastic demand and almost no substitutes. That’s exactly the setup we look for. This really positive trait for tungsten would normally be a strength, but for some unexplained reason, my experience has shown me that this is what makes the whole tungsten market a mystery and incredibly hard to master.
3.0 Policy, Procurement, and Power
Policy now drives price. The U.S. Reeshore Act, Europe’s anti-dumping extensions, and NATO’s critical mineral alerts all point in one direction: reduce dependency on Chinese tungsten. If this is to come into reality, there is going to be a shortage of this metal, as geologically, they don't appear commonly as an economical deposit.
Crucially, defence contractors are now paying premiums for secure supply. The shift is no longer speculative—it is procurement-driven.
For countries with advanced defence and semiconductor industries, that’s no longer optional. Strategic autonomy is now a procurement mandate. That’s good news for companies in Australia, Portugal, South Korea, and Canada.
4.0 Group 6 Metals Limited (ASX:G6M) – Mining Tungsten
Group 6 Metals Limited is an Australian mining company focused on the redevelopment of the Dolphin Tungsten Mine on King Island, Tasmania. Formerly known as King Island Scheelite Limited, the company rebranded in November 2021 to reflect its emphasis on tungsten, a critical mineral in Group 6 of the periodic table.
Recently, there has been a major restructuring of the company, and that has had a major impact on the company, and in my opinion, this is really the major issue with this story.
4.1 Resource (source: Group 6 Metals Limited)
The Dolphin Project contains a 2012 JORC compliant reserve and resource, which currently stands at:
Dolphin Indicated Mineral Reserves of 4.43Mt at a grade of 0.92% WO3 (at 0.2% WO3 cut-off for open pit reserve, 0.7% WO3 for underground reserve)
Dolphin Probable Mineral Resources, including the Mineral Reserves, of 9.6Mt at a grade of 0.90% WO3 (at 0.2% WO3 cut-off)
The Bold Head Satellite deposit contains an Indicated and Inferred Resource of 1.76Mt @ 0.91% WO3 (0.4% WO3 cut off)
The value, or rather the significance, of the Dolphin resources is that it rates well against other known deposits in the world and is currently the highest grade tungsten deposit in the world (Figure 6).
Figure 6: A diagrammatic representation of the Dolphin Tungsten deposit compared to other know tungsten deposits in the world.
4.2 Offtake Agreements
One of the most significant aspects of the Group 6 story is the existence of an off-take agreement in place. A metal like Tungsten is not easily traded, and these agreements underpin the viability of the mining process. With the supply crunch taking a steroid-fuelled rise in the last few months, these agreements may now seem trivial or a liability; however, they would have been the critical aspect for the development of the in previously.
Wolfram Agreement (April 2019)
Partner: Wolfram Bergbau und Hütten AG (subsidiary of Sandvik AB)
Offtake Volume: 1,400 tonnes of WO₃ (tungsten trioxide) over 4 years
Equivalent to: ~2,200 tonnes of tungsten concentrate
Traxys Agreement (September 2021)
Traxys is a trader and merchant dealing in physical commodities within the metals and natural resources sectors. With over 450 employees across more than 20 global offices, the company manages logistics, marketing, distribution, supply chain management, and trading activities, achieving an annual turnover exceeding USD 7 billion.
Based in Luxembourg, Traxys specializes in sourcing, trading, marketing, and distributing non-ferrous metals, ferro-alloys, minerals, industrial raw materials, and energy. The Traxys Group caters to a wide range of industrial clients, providing a comprehensive array of commercial and financial services.
As a privately held company, Traxys is owned by its management team, The Carlyle Group (NASDAQ:CG), and affiliates of Louis M. Bacon, the founder of Moore Capital Management, LP, and Moore Strategic Ventures, LLC, Mr. Bacon’s private investment firm.
These two agreements collectively secure a significant portion of offtake for the Dolphin Tungsten Mine and establish G6M's credibility with reputable international partners in the critical minerals and metals trading space.
4.3 Restructuring of Company
I think this statement from the new Executive Chair will outline the issues.
Group 6 Metals Executive Chairman Kevin Pallas said:
The quarter to 31 December 2024 saw the Company struggle to achieve the improvements to its process plant performance that are needed to ensure viable ongoing operations at the Dolphin Tungsten Mine. There were continued delays in decision making on key process plant component changes and configuration adjustments, coupled with poor supplier relations.
Further, despite the Moelis strategic review process, the Company has not been able to source external investment on favourable terms resulting in a lack of liquidity that has led to constraints on operational improvements and essential plant maintenance. Safety performance has been disappointing.
A program of safety improvement is underway which includes filling leadership roles and improving the work environment through a combination of engineering improvements and targeted safety improvement campaigns.
It became abundantly apparent that something had to change, and a major recapitalisation plan with the Company’s senior lending group was agreed by the Company. The Company is working towards being able to put the recapitalisation plans to shareholders for approval at a general meeting at the earliest opportunity.
In anticipation of this, during the quarter the senior lenders have provided$14.0M of interim funding to allow for operations at the Dolphin Tungsten mine to continue pending the approval of the recapitalisation plan.
There have been several changes to the board and management since announcing the recapitalisation plan. Since these changes were made in early December, the board has been very active in assessing the prospects of the Company and supporting plans to remediate performance in the short-term, aimed at not only securing the future of the mine, but to allow the Company to realise the potential of tungsten mining in Tasmania.
Of the $14.0M advanced by the senior lenders in the quarter, $4.75M was provided since the change in board and management following announcement of the recapitalisation plan at the beginning of December 2024.
A capital improvement program has commenced with goals to remediate a significant plant maintenance debt, accelerate process plant design improvements, and bolster production resilience generally. A program such as this takes time and capital to implement, but most importantly it requires strong leadership and focus. The program is now underway and steady incremental productivity improvements are becoming evident.
Efficient mining activities and achievement of ore delivery targets is a standout positive outcome in the quarter. We progressed well through the mining sequence in the Dolphin open cut pit and exposed the high-grade C lense ore body with excellent strip ratios, which is a great credit to the mining team.
We now look forward to positive outcomes from the upcoming EGM at which we expect the recapitalisation plan to gain shareholder approval, thus empowering further business improvement initiatives.
5.0 Guardian Metals Resources PLC (LON: GMET, OTCQX: GMTLF) – A Potential Giant Dark Horse.
Guardian Metal Resources PLC (LON: GMET, OTCQX: GMTLF) is a UK-based mineral exploration company focused on critical and precious metals, with primary operations in Nevada, USA. Established in 2021 and formerly known as Golden Metal Resources PLC until June 2024, the company is strategically positioned to contribute to the U.S.'s domestic supply of essential minerals, particularly tungsten, amid global supply chain concerns.
Figure 7: A snapshot of the corporate information of Guardian Metals Resources PLC (source: Guardian Metal Resources).
As you can see in Figure 7, the company is travelling well, and having a tungsten resource in the USA is now, with Trump Making USA Great Again, backing will make the future of Guardian Metal more than interesting.
5.1 The Pilot Mountain Tungsten Project
The Pilot Mountain project (Figure 8) is a 5,908-acre project located 200km southeast of Reno and 20km east of Mina, Nevada. It hosts a Mineral Resource Estimate (MRE) of 12.53Mt at 0.27% W03 with significant Cu-Ag-Zn credits. Pilot Mountain was a project that was purchased from Thor Mining Limited PLC (ASX/AIM:THR), which is now rebadged as Thor Energy PLC, in September 2021 (US1.8M Sale Option - Pilot Mountain Project).
Figure 8: Pilot Mountain Tungsten project. (source: Guardian Metal).
6.0 Almonty Industries – First Mover with Long Legs
Almonty (ASX:AII) deserves attention. Sangdong Mine in South Korea is coming online mid-2025, backed by offtake agreements and floor pricing from Plansee’s GTP unit in the U.S. Add Panasqueira in Portugal and future processing in New York and Pennsylvania, and you’re looking at a Western tungsten backbone. It’s rare to see a mid-cap miner with such clarity of purpose and geopolitically aligned infrastructure. They’re not just building a mine—they’re plugging a supply chain hole (Figure 9).
Figure 9: Almonty – Securing America’s Future in Tungsten Supply. (source: Almonty)
For investors looking at geopolitical alignment as an investment filter, Almonty offers both scale and compliance.
7.0 EQ Resources – When Technology Meets Scale
As far as I understand, EQ Resources would be one that has real knowledge of APT pricing, as they have "shipped" some ore. According to EQ, the March 2024 prices have climbed 21% in USD and 27% in AUD, driven by steadily rising demand and a sharp supply shock following China’s February 2025 export controls (Figure 10). The market has been repricing access, not just product, rewarding those who are operational, credible, and already in the flow of production.
That’s where EQ Resources (ASX: EQR) stands out. With operating assets at Mt Carbine in Queensland and Saloro in Spain, EQR isn’t waiting for the price to catch up—they’re already shipping into long-term offtake agreements. Their integration of XRT sorting and gravity circuit upgrades has boosted throughput and recovery just as buyers are scrambling to de-risk their supply chains.
Figure 10: A period of a rising tungsten price (source: EQR)
What makes EQR compelling is the combination of timing, jurisdiction, and process innovation. While others are still optimising feasibility studies, EQR is exporting concentrate into Western systems. In a rising price environment backed by structural geopolitics, that kind of real-time leverage is rare—and hard to ignore.
8.0 TGN – Low-Cost Entry, High Leverage
Tungsten Mining (ASX:TGN) plays a different hand. With significant resources at Mt. Mulgine and near-term development potential at Hatches Creek, TGN’s staged development strategy allows it to scale with market conditions. Processing historical stockpiles first lowers their capex exposure while offering immediate revenue upside as prices climb.
Tungsten Mining’s Chairman, Gary Lyons, commented:
“The maiden Mineral Resource Estimate for the 100% owned Hatches Creek Project is nearing completion. This marks a pivotal step in unlocking value from one of the Northern Territory’s most historically significant, yet underexplored, polymetallic projects.
“This milestone represents a significant step in advancing the Hatches Creek Project and will assist in guiding future exploration and development activities.”
Tungsten Mining may be pre-production, but its resource base offers real torque. In a market shaped by rising defence and tech demand, TGN is a leveraged play on price momentum.
9.0 Tungsten’s Unmatched Industrial DNA
Industrial Backbone: Tungsten’s extreme physical properties—most notably its density, strength, and the highest melting point of any metal at 3,422°C—make it indispensable in high-temperature, high-stress environments. Tungsten carbide tools are critical in the aerospace, automotive, and medical industries, maintaining precision and durability where other materials fail.
Semiconductor Essential: In chip fabrication, Tungsten Hexafluoride (WF₆) is vital for depositing thin conductive layers used in advanced integrated circuits. WF₆ is a gaseous compound of tungsten and fluorine that decomposes during chemical vapor deposition (CVD) to form thin tungsten films. As demand surges for AI processors, cloud infrastructure, and smaller, faster electronics, WF₆ becomes even more central. Tungsten enables the reliability and performance needed in next-generation electronics.
Defence and Hypersonics: Militaries rely on tungsten for its sheer mass and impact power. It's used in armour-piercing shells, missile penetrators, and aircraft counterbalances. Tungsten's heat resistance and density are unmatched for hypersonic weapons—technologies that demand materials capable of withstanding extreme forces. Its role in national defence is no longer peripheral—it's foundational.
10.0 The Refining Bottleneck Few Are Talking About
Mine is only half the equation. The real choke point is in the processing, and right now, China dominates the downstream flow.
That’s why Almonty’s build-out of U.S.-based processing capacity is a game-changer. It’s also why EQ Resources’ supply partnerships with Elmet in the U.S. are strategically important.
Western governments are beginning to act, offering incentives for refining and conversion projects. When policy aligns with execution, new value is unlocked quickly.
11.0 Concluding Comments by Samso
Tungsten has always been a specialist’s metal, and it does look like the narrative is shifting. What once sat in the background of mining portfolios is now being reshaped by defence urgency, semiconductor innovation, and geopolitical strategy. The world is re-learning just how foundational this metal truly is.
The term Critical Metals or Critical Minerals, I feel, has lost its importance in regard to its meaning. Critical in my vocabulary is "hard to find", you cannot do without it, and in many forms, metals like lithium, rare earths, gallium, antimony, tungsten, etc, are important, but I would not say they are critical in the strict sense of the meaning.
There are several metals in the lists that I would say are pseudo-critical or at least closer to being critical when they are hard to find in an economical amount, and these are antimony and tungsten. I highlight these two metals because I feel comfortable speaking about them in a meaningful manner.
I won't touch on antimony now, as I will have another Samso Insight on that metal coming out soon, but let's talk about tungsten.
11.1 Is Tungsten really rare?
When we talk about this topic, we need to specify if we are talking about reserves as a stockpile or if we are talking about the reserves that are still in the ground. As we all know, the stuff that is in the ground will take at least a decade to be sold as a usable material, so the timeline for that will affect supply, but it does not mean it's rare.
If we are talking about the resource in the ground, there is actually no shortage of that, as a Google search will tell you that there are several large, undeveloped deposits, with two that I know of. One is in Canada, the Sisson Tungsten-Molybdenum Project in New Brunswick, and the other is in Western Australia, which is the O'Callaghan's Tungsten project.
These are large deposits, and the fact that they have not been developed makes me think that the whole "Critical" nature of the story is not consistent with reality. This whole question of criticality is even worse if you take into account China discovering even larger deposits recently (Large Tungsten Mine Discovered in China). Whether you believe the China news or not, there is definitely no doubting that there seems to be a good source of tungsten in the ground globally.
(source: www.lowyinstitute.org - A campaign rally in Flint, Michigan (Emily Elconin/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
So, what does the metal need to make the potential of being Critical Metal a reality?
The solution: - Bring in Mr Trump and the new Anti-China rhetoric with the lack of new mines.
Today, that is happening. The beginning of the journey is happening, and investors will start to see the potential for a Tungsten Dominance that will be significantly larger than the recent Lithium and Rare Earth journey.
11.2 The US Factor - The Catalyst for Tungsten Dominance?
When I started doing my research for this Insight, I was looking for the reasons why there is so much commentary, and there was even an article somewhere (which I cannot find again) that mentioned pricing in the USD $400 plus. As I have been close to this sector for a while, I felt that this was worth doing this Insight.
I saw Oliver Friesen, the CEO and Executive Director of Guardian Metal Resource PLC, speaking in an interview, and I sought him out to get some current information. I had heard of the Chinese ban on exporting tungsten, and basically, Oliver has confirmed that, coupled with the "Make America Great" campaign, the tungsten supply is pretty much super tight. In fact, the price is currently USD 415 mtu, and a practical price of USD 450 mtu plus is probably more reflective of current pricing.
Oliver explains that the price started to move in earnest the last few months, and it looks like the same narrative continues; there is going to be a shift to a critical supply shortage, a real supply shortage. He mentions that even companies like Boeing are concerned.
In addition, I found an article from the Shanghai Metal Market (SMM) talking about how drone warfare is driving a silent surge in tungsten pricing—How Drone Warfare is Driving a Silent Surge in Tungsten Prices? If all these "news" are somewhat factual and legitimate, then the comments from Oliver will have weight and could finally drive the Tungsten market.
11.3 Final Thoughts
For me, there is no doubt that the narrative for Guardian Metals is now all about Tungsten Dominance. Fortunately, for the likes of Guardian Metal, the slogan of President Trump, saying "Making America Great Again", will be the factor that will drive the whole Tungsten dominance. To add significance to this thought, I am told that Guardian Metals is in line for over USD6 M of grants from the US government, which highlights the real push for making Tungsten a headline for being on the Critical Metal list.
As we have discussed, the pricing for tungsten has been on the downside since its rise in 2012, and could this be the actual factor that could drive pricing above and beyond?
For ASX investors wanting a piece of the action, I will caution jumping into those that I have mentioned or those that I have not mentioned in the ASX. The train has definitely left the station, so the risk of negative news driving a fall like that historically is on the rise.
The ASX does not have a good stock of tungsten companies with what I call a real project at a stage of running the mining story. If you look at just the "mining the market" investment opportunities, I do not have any comments at this stage.
Group 6 has had a history of attracting lots of so-called "smart money" into the project when it was well understood that the high-grade resource just does not work. I remember back when things were good in 2012, I had discussed with a very big hitter in the resource fund game, and we both agreed that the Dolphin project would just be a money pit. Unfortunately, we are proven correct.
I have not followed up on EQ, but I think some interesting things are happening lately. As for Tungsten Mining, it does have the Watershed project, which it bought for AUD 15M (was overpriced), that would surely be in the black at this stage. I know that project fairly well, and I am sure it will pass the Feasibility test at the pricing today.
In the broader picture of critical minerals, tungsten is proof that not all value lies in visibility. The most strategic assets are often the least understood—until markets, militaries, and manufacturers collide. And in tungsten, they already are.
For investors who recognise timing and context, this is a story of revaluation. The groundwork is laid. Now it’s about following the execution, watching the policy response, and positioning ahead of the mainstream.
Happy hunting in the markets, and never skip the research.
Reference:
Foucaud, Yann & Filippov, Lev & Filippova, Inna & Badawi, Michael. (2020). The Challenge of Tungsten Skarn Processing by Froth Flotation: A Review. Frontiers in Chemistry. 8. 10.3389/fchem.2020.00230.
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