The New Investment Reality: How Geopolitics Is Shaping the Future of Gold, Copper, Antimony, Iron Ore, and Lithium
- Noel Ong
- 2 days ago
- 12 min read
Updated: 2 days ago
The narrative around critical minerals is no longer just a story of energy transition. It has become a complex intersection of economics, security, diplomacy, and market psychology. At first, it was about rare earths and lithium. What began as a conversation around rare earths and lithium has now extended deeper into the commodity spectrum—copper, gold, iron ore, antimony, and beyond are all being drawn into the geopolitical spotlight.
What’s becoming increasingly clear is this: the battleground for the future of energy, technology, and manufacturing supremacy is being fought in the boardrooms of mining companies and in the rocks beneath their feet. And much of that tension will surface at events such as the Critical Minerals Investment Summit 2025, which runs from 22–24 July at the Mercure Perth.
From where I sit and have seen over the last 5 years of the "Critical Minerals" narrative, there seems to be a stream of fear and positioning of those that have and a race for positions for those that have not settled. The recent decline in lithium price has deleted the word dominance of lithium from the narrative coming out of Australia.
The next commodity that is dominated by Australia that may have the same fate could be iron ore, as Rio Tinto, the iron giant in the Pilbara Iron Ore heaven, recently announced to the world to expect lower grades.
The chest-pounding Antimony explorers are currently raising their voices as there is a West vs. China war on that commodity. I think with China dominating that market as well, it would make perfect sense for them to make peace and bring the price back to a sensible market price. Once that happens, that game will be over as well, like the recent Cobalt, Tin, Lithium and REE ride.
Let's delve into the whole geopolitical discussion and see if we can simplify all the smoke that is currently doing the rounds on mainstream media.
The chapters below will help readers move around this review:
1.0 From Strategic Metal to Strategic Mindset
The traditional investor mindset of supply, demand, and commodity pricing is being upended. Whether it’s lithium required for EV batteries, copper for grid-scale electrification, or antimony used in military-grade flame retardants, the driver now is not just utility—it’s control.
The U.S. administration—be it under Biden’s cooperative frameworks or Trump’s transactional style—is crystal clear on one thing: China dominates too many steps of the critical minerals value chain. And that’s no longer acceptable in Washington, Brussels, Tokyo, or Seoul.
We’ve known about China’s grip on rare earth refining and graphite anodes for years. But we’re now seeing broader categories of minerals being swept into the same conversation—iron ore as a proxy for steel autonomy, gold as a hedge against monetary instability, and copper as the pulse of decarbonisation (Figure 1).
Figure 1: News like China banning critical metals to the US is now the norm in mainstream media. (source: Reuters).
At the centre of all this? Australia. With geology, political alignment, and operational capacity on its side, Australia is emerging as the most geopolitically strategic resource partner in the Western alliance.
2.0 Was Geopolitics Always This Influential?
There’s a risk that all this could be dismissed as short-term noise or election-season rhetoric. But the reality is more layered. Geopolitics has always shaped resource flows—think oil in the Middle East, gas pipelines through Europe, or uranium trade networks. What’s different now is that the conversation has gone mainstream.
Clyde Russell of Reuters said it best ahead of the summit:
“If the U.S. wants critical minerals without China, it will cost more.”
The challenge for Australia isn’t just technical or financial anymore—it’s also diplomatic (Figure 2). Securing funding or offtake agreements from the U.S. Department of Energy or Japan’s JOGMEC is increasingly dependent on policy alignment, ESG compliance, and even the optics of non-China ties.
Dr. Vlado Vivoda, CEO & Director of Strategic Minerals Advisory & Research, offered another layer: the shift isn’t just away from China but also from laissez-faire market logic. The U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is a blueprint of how industrial policy is now taking precedence over free trade principles.
Figure 2: China is single-handedly propelling the price of Antimony. (source: Reuters)
In that context, projects in Australia that may have previously struggled to gain traction due to modest scale or early-stage status are now finding a new kind of validation: strategic value.
3.0 Gold, Copper, Lithium, Antimony, Iron Ore—How Deep Does It Go?
Figure 3: The mining process of these critical minerals are now changing masters. Who do mines side with now the changing funding landscapes?
When I do a search on these commodities, they give me the same kind of generic reasons why they are critical and that there is a shortage of these commodities in terms of mines and resources. The list below is an example of the results. You may ask why gold is included in our list, and that is a great question.
Lithium remains front and centre. The U.S. and its allies are scrambling to localise supply chains, from spodumene to hydroxide conversion, bypassing China-dominated processors. Australia’s lithium projects, especially those with downstream ambitions, are getting increasing attention.
Copper is quickly becoming a metal of geopolitical importance. Beyond its obvious use in electric vehicles and renewables, copper is critical for rebuilding and upgrading power grids—a national security issue in disguise.
Antimony is quietly having a moment. With China and Russia as major producers, Western countries are finding themselves exposed. The metal’s use in military applications and battery technology gives it disproportionate strategic weight relative to its market size.
Iron ore is the wildcard. While traditionally seen as a bulk commodity, its central role in China’s industrial complex makes it a potential pressure point. Any serious decoupling between China and Western steelmakers will put Australia in a complicated spot.
Gold, often ignored in critical minerals conversations, is not immune. Central banks, especially in non-Western countries, have been increasing their holdings. Gold is the original hedge against geopolitical chaos, and in a world facing growing monetary fragmentation, it is quietly being weaponised.
When you look at the list above, the big elephant in the room is to ask if we are talking about critical from a geopolitical reason or from a geological and mining scarcity issue (Figure 3).
Commodities such as Tungsten and Antimony have been talked about as being a threat of being critically short in the market for about 15 years. I say that because that is when I was introduced to these two metals. Today, we are still talking about it, but it has been enhanced with China making the ban effective (Figure 1).
4.0 Between Headlines and Hard Policy
It’s tempting to view all this as just election theatre, especially with Trump poised for another potential term. But Vivoda is careful to point out that while the tone may shift, the direction remains. Whether the U.S. prefers alliances or arm-twisting, the end goal is the same: reduce dependency on China (Figure 4).
Figure 4: Is the critical minerals pricing is a political or market narrative? (source: Reuters)
When we look at the "noise' of pricing and the sudden supply crunch of antimony, tungsten, tin, etc., the complexity for investors is that we have to now, in 2025, factor in market demand vs. supply and the political issue.
In the past, nations have gone to war (Figure 5) for these kinds of matters, so could we be potentially looking at something like that again? What happens when the warring sides begin to smoke that peace pipe? Are the critical metals suddenly not so critical, or do we believe that the Western world will learn the lesson and pay the price of recreating a "Western" market?
Figure 5: As the geopolitical tensions continue to rise, will be look at the draconian thinking of the past?
As usual, Australia will be courted either way, but we must be prepared to navigate uncertainty. Industrial funding mechanisms such as DPA Title III, the IRA-linked tax credits, and bilateral trade compacts offer huge opportunities—but only for companies that understand the rules of the new game.
The United States–Australia Climate, Critical Minerals, and Clean Energy Transformation Compact might sound like diplomatic theatre, but it signals the direction of travel. Supply chains are being rewired, and Australian companies that are strategically aligned will find more doors open—if they can move fast enough.
5.0 Australia’s Role in a Fragmenting Supply Chain
As global powers recalibrate their critical minerals strategies, Australia is becoming central to efforts aimed at diversifying away from China (Figure 6). With abundant resources, stable regulation, and established ESG standards, Australia is increasingly viewed as a reliable anchor in an unstable system. Is it?
The Australian issue is the inability to rise above the mounting challenges: faster project approvals, scalable downstream capabilities, and the ability to form enduring trade partnerships that align with shifting geopolitical demands.
For Australian players, the task ahead is no longer just about delivering supply—it’s about meeting the world’s rising expectations, on time and on terms that serve national and "partner" interests.
Figure 6: World Critical Minerals Dependency Map.
6.0 U.S. Industrial Policy and What It Means for Australian Critical Minerals Projects
The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is the cornerstone of America’s clean energy and industrial revitalisation strategy. Doing the research and trying to understand all the points is incredibly complex. Some of the key points are listed below.
Navigating U.S. funding mechanisms—including tax credits and clean energy incentives—is complex for foreign companies.
Eligibility hinges on factors like:
Domestic content requirements
Strategic alignment with U.S. supply chain goals
Avoidance of Chinese-linked ownership or processing
Additional policy layers include:
Title III of the Defence Production Act (DPA)
Department of Energy (DoE) Loan Programs Office
Bilateral agreements such as the U.S.–Australia Climate and Clean Energy Transformation Compact
The result is a maze of incentives and compliance conditions, requiring deep policy understanding. For Australian companies, the challenge is to align with U.S. priorities without compromising project independence or operational flexibility.
In my opinion, all these trade restrictions will always eventually be relaxed with time, or another route for the trade will arise, which ultimately negates the barriers. History has shown that this is the way of the world; otherwise, global trade would not be as efficient as it is now.
Investors must wonder if all this required effort is a place that they want to park their hard-earned money. With the recent reduction in tariffs being "negotiated," investors may prefer to just go for a holiday or leave it in some other asset class where there is more certainty.
7.0 Investment Realities: What Capital Is Willing to Pay For?
For all the headlines around critical minerals being “strategic,” the investment fundamentals haven’t disappeared. At the end of the day, capital still moves based on risk, return, and timing. There’s no shortage of geopolitical interest, but translating that into real dollars, especially for early-stage projects, remains a challenge.
Many assets that tick the right boxes in Washington or Brussels, in Hong Kong or Australia, struggle to attract meaningful funding without long-term offtake agreements or government-backed finance. Sovereign wealth funds, institutional capital, and specialist investors are circling, but their focus is narrow—priority is given to projects that are both politically aligned and commercially credible.
As I read more into the whole concept of "Critical Minerals," one needs to understand to whom it is a critical issue. One would then assume that the eager capital that is used to fund the mineral exploration or the mining process must benefit the community that surrounds the end process. The competition for funding is fierce, so the business case for receiving funding would need to be on point.
In Australia, there is no real downstream process, and one would think that it should not be our concern. A good example is the case of struggling Australian Mineral Explorers seeking government funding but having limited success. Why would this make sense? Why not spend the funding on commodities that Australia benefits from? Would that not make more sense, from Australia's point of view?
In October 2024, Tim Craske was on Coffee with Samso explaining why we may have misunderstood the terminology and the meaning of Critical Minerals.
Capital is ultimately the market maker and the one that decides what sells and what is bought. There is no denying this simple point, and it has been this way for centuries.
For developers across lithium, copper, antimony, and even gold, this creates a sharper lens: technical merit alone is no longer enough. The real question is whether Western governments—and their funding mechanisms—are genuinely prepared to absorb the cost of reshoring supply chains. In other words, are they ready to pay the “strategic premium,” or is this still a market that expects security without subsidy?
8.0 Strategic Partnerships vs. Transactional Deals: Which Way Forward?
Australia is focused on establishing long-term alliances founded on trust and stability, in contrast to short-term, transactional deals that are often influenced by political cycles. To achieve this, Australia needs to collaborate with key partners, including the United States, the European Union, Japan, and South Korea.
However, a significant challenge remains as the market is asking if Australia can preserve its strategic leverage without becoming entangled in one-sided or coercive economic agreements. Is siding with President Trump a good choice of economic policy, or is it time for Australia to be more strategic with its real trading partners, the ASEAN players?
The strategic significance of certain minerals necessitates that partnership structures emphasize long-term, mutual benefits rather than mere opportunistic trade. It is not solely about supply. The process is also about fostering a shared vision, ensuring transparency, and aligning with broader economic and security objectives. Furthermore, the nature of these minerals should be reflected in the strategic planning of the partnerships.
9.0 Concluding Comments From Samso
The growing intersection of geopolitics and critical minerals is no longer a speculative conversation—it’s the operating environment (Figure 7). What we’re seeing is not a short-term reaction, but a structural reordering of how resources are valued, funded, and supplied globally.
Figure 7: The geopolitical impacts for "Critical Minerals". (source: Samso)
Australia is in a unique position. We have the geology, the stability, and the diplomatic alignment that many countries are actively seeking. But that advantage is not automatic. It requires intent, speed, and the ability to structure projects that meet new geopolitical and ESG realities.
The days of simply finding a high-grade deposit and waiting for the market to respond are fading. Today, investors and policymakers are demanding clarity on processing pathways, offtake alignment, ESG credentials, and geopolitical fit. If these elements aren’t addressed early, projects may miss the funding cycle altogether.
For gold, copper, antimony, lithium, and even iron ore, the narrative has shifted from one of production to one of purpose. Why does your project exist, who does it serve, and how does it fit into broader supply resilience? These are now fundamental questions every explorer must answer.
Figure 8: Rare Earth Elements have been a big topic for a while but can the "Western" influences re-create the downstream process and maintain the course. (source: Thermo Fisher Scientific)
When you start talking about the Rae Earths, there is another level of complexity, as the cost of restabilising the downstream process may be too rich for the "West," so what do you do there? There are paths being created now, but will they be sustained, and will they break down as soon as the Trump factor goes into retirement?
It’s encouraging to see forums like the Critical Minerals Investment Summit 2025 bring these issues to the front. These are the conversations that shape investor confidence and industry direction—not just in Australia, but across the global resource landscape.
As always, I encourage companies and investors alike to look past the headlines. Understand the long game, track the geopolitical signals, and position wisely. The rocks haven’t changed, but the world around them has and is affecting the way we explore and complete the mining process.
Greenbushes Lithium Mine in Western Australia. (source: Alamy)
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