Samso Market Update: ASX extends recovery as bank rally overcomes resources weakness

Thursday, September 17, 2026 | 4:30 pm

Australian shares posted a second consecutive gain on Thursday, although a strong opening rally faded as investors weighed the prospect of further interest-rate increases.

The S&P/ASX 200 closed up 35.90 points, or 0.41%, at 8,732.40. The All Ordinaries added 36.40 points, or 0.41%, to 8,910.90.

Smaller stocks lagged, with the Small Ordinaries rising 6.30 points, or 0.19%, to 3,363.50.

Financials led the recovery, gaining 1.42%, while the banks index climbed 1.91%. Healthcare added 0.98%, real estate rose 0.66% and industrials gained 0.57%.

Only four of the 11 sectors finished higher. Energy fell 1.10%, technology lost 0.98% and materials declined 0.38%. Utilities slipped 0.23%, with consumer discretionary, consumer staples and communication services also lower. The All Ordinaries Gold index dropped 1.98%.

NAB led the major banks, advancing 3.16%, followed by ANZ’s 2.08%, Commonwealth Bank’s 1.63% and Westpac’s 1.16%.

Dyno Nobel was another standout, jumping 7.77% following upbeat earnings projections. Defence names DroneShield, Electro Optic Systems and Austal also featured among the stronger performers.

Among smaller companies, Latrobe Magnesium finished 35.71% higher at 1.9 cents, with about 58.7 million shares traded.  The company received a non-binding US$15 million financing indication for a feasibility study into its proposed South Carolina magnesium plant. Funding remains conditional, including on securing another US$15 million.

Commodity markets offered a mixed backdrop. Brent crude extended its decline to US$103.95 a barrel and WTI fell to US$100.66 as Saudi Arabia offered additional shipments through Oman, easing immediate supply concerns.

Spot gold recovered 1.2% to US$4,314.64 an ounce, despite local gold producers finishing lower. In afternoon reporting, copper was around US$14,202.50 a tonne, down 0.2%, while Singapore iron ore futures gained 0.2% to US$96. Aluminium eased 0.5% and nickel rose 0.4%.

The recovery remained uneven: banks carried the benchmark while most sectors retreated. Attention now turns to RBA governor Michele Bullock’s parliamentary appearance on Friday for the domestic response to renewed inflation and interest-rate pressure.

Thursday, September 17, 2026 | 12.30 pm update

The Australian market has defied the weaker opening anticipated this morning, with the ASX 200 gaining 30.9 points, or 0.36%, to 8,727.40. However, the benchmark had surrendered much of its early advance after reaching 8,787.10.

The All Ordinaries rose 0.34% to 8,904.60, while the Small Ordinaries added just 0.05% to 3,358.80. Unlike Wednesday’s stronger small-cap recovery, today’s improvement was more evident among the larger companies.

Financials and Healthcare provided support, while Materials and Energy faced selling pressure, reversing the pattern that drove yesterday’s gains. Morning market coverage identified banks as a principal source of index strength.

By midday, Bendigo and Adelaide Bank had gained 2.54%, NAB was up 2.17% and ANZ had risen 2.05%. ASX Limited advanced 4.04%, while Telix recovered 4.15% after Wednesday’s decline.

The buying came despite the Fed’s overnight rate increase and signals of further tightening. Locally, the IMF added to that discussion, warning that persistent inflation could require additional Australian interest-rate increases. The bank rally therefore should not be read as an easing of the broader interest-rate outlook.

Resources told a different story. Santos fell 3.04%, Beach Energy lost 4.17% and Karoon declined 4.09%, following oil’s retreat. Brent’s overnight settlement was US$105.83 a barrel, with WTI at US$102.43, as expectations of restored Saudi supplies eased immediate concerns.

Gold miners also weakened: Capricorn fell 3.89%, Ramelius lost 3.73%, Genesis declined 3.36%, and Westgold dropped 3.25%. Predictive Discovery fell 7.10% and Pantoro lost 6.74%.

West African Resources declined 7.89%, and South32 fell 4.69%, although both traded ex-dividend today. Their respective 20-cent and 7.5-cent distributions account for part of those price falls.

Gold itself had recovered in Thursday trading, with spot bullion up more than 1% to US$4,310.49, alongside gains in silver, platinum and palladium. That recovery had not translated into broad buying across local gold shares.

Among mid-caps, DroneShield rose 6.92%, Electro Optic Systems gained 5.62% and Austal added 4.84%. EQ Resources fell 4.30% on 51.48 million shares.

Small-cap activity remained selective. Latrobe Magnesium gained 42.86% on 44.36 million shares, while ATC rose 50%, LIO gained 45.45% and MQR added 42.86%. Conversely, AYT fell 33.33%, ATT lost 31.25% and ENV declined 20%.

For me, the distinction is clear: banks are supporting the index, but resources weakness and an almost-flat Small Ordinaries show that the recovery remains uneven.

Thursday, September 17, 2026 | 9 am AEST

Wednesday’s recovery faces an immediate test, with ASX 200 futures down 0.7% to 8,626 overnight after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates and signalled that further increases could follow. The Australian dollar slipped to US70.88 cents, while US bond yields rose despite a retreat in oil prices.

The Fed unanimously increased its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00%, its first rise since 2023. The more significant message came from its projections: 16 of 18 policymakers expect at least one further increase before year-end. For me, that is the issue markets now have to absorb—how much more tightening follows this widely anticipated move.

The economic releases ahead of the decision reinforced that concern. US retail sales rose 1.2% in August, with the control measure used in GDP calculations increasing 1.4%. Import prices also climbed 0.7%, showing that inflation pressure extends beyond domestic spending. Retail sales are measured in dollars rather than inflation-adjusted volumes, but the figures still showed considerable spending resilience.

Wall Street reversed earlier gains. The Dow dropped 631.21 points, or 1.2%, to 51,461.90, the S&P 500 fell 0.4% to 7,551.81, and the Nasdaq finished almost unchanged at 25,978.42. The US two-year Treasury yield rose to 4.74%, while the 10-year moved back above 5%.

That leaves a difficult backdrop for the ASX after Wednesday’s approximately 0.3% recovery. Energy and Materials had provided the strongest sector support, with Woodside, Santos and Ampol advancing alongside BHP, Rio Tinto and Fortescue. Commonwealth Bank, NAB and ANZ remained lower, while Westpac edged higher.

Commodity movements now present a different mix. Brent fell 2.7% to US$105.83 a barrel, while WTI declined more than 3% to around US$102, as expectations of a partial restart of Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline eased immediate supply concerns.

Gold fell 0.7% to approximately US$4,264 an ounce, but copper gained 1.1% to US$14,232 a tonne and iron ore rose 0.4% to US$96.35. Firmer industrial metals could support miners, while lower crude may temper enthusiasm for energy shares.

The next releases include US jobless claims, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey and housing figures, alongside the Bank of England’s decision and New Zealand’s June-quarter GDP.

My focus today is whether stronger copper and iron ore can help Australian miners withstand the weaker overseas lead. Lower oil offers some cost relief, but rising bond yields and the prospect of further rate increases remain obstacles to a sustained sharemarket recovery.