The Gold Price in Australia and the Gold Regions of Western Australia
The gold price in Australia was about A$5,565 an ounce, or US$3,910, at the ASX close of 2 November 2026. It is at the bottom of the range we published in July. We decided to launch a series looking at the gold regions in Western Australia and this piece sets out the price, the rate outlook and the main gold regions of Western Australia, and opens the Gold Regions Series.
The gold price fell about 7 per cent in October. On 30 October 2026 it closed below US$3,900 an ounce, the floor of the range we published in July, for the first time since that range was set.
This is the top page of our Gold Regions Series. Each region then has a Samso Insight, starting with East Murchison and Yalgoo, and each company a Samso Research workup.
All prices in this piece are as at the close of ASX trading on 2 November 2026. Global prices for gold and the Australian dollar are taken at the same time.
Australian dollar gold prices, percentage changes and day counts in this piece are our own.
The gold price in US and Australian dollars
Gold last traded at US$3,910 an ounce at the ASX close of 2 November 2026. That is the price of the most actively traded gold futures contract on the COMEX exchange in New York. A futures contract is an agreement to buy gold at a set price on a later date. The December contract used here trades close to the spot price, the price for gold delivered now. At 70.3 US cents to the Australian dollar, that is about A$5,565 [R1]. This is the same measure the East Murchison Insight uses.
The highest close of this cycle was US$5,318 on 29 January 2026, and A$7,581 on 28 January 2026. Gold is now 26 per cent below that high in US dollars and 27 per cent below it in Australian dollars. A year earlier, on 3 November 2025, it closed at US$4,014, or about A$6,132. The US dollar price is 3 per cent lower than that and the Australian dollar price 9 per cent lower (FIG. 01). The spot price had a higher record close, US$5,419.83 on 28 January [R2].
The Australian dollar price is the one that matters to a Western Australian miner, because its costs are paid in Australian dollars. For the same US dollar price, a stronger Australian dollar means a lower local gold price.
The fall in October came in two steps, on 22 and 23 October and again on 30 October. Market reports gave three reasons. Higher oil prices revived fears of inflation. Traders added to bets that the US Federal Reserve, the US central bank, would raise rates again in December. And some investors sold gold to cover losses in a sell-off in technology shares [R3][R4]. Gold fell even though the US dollar and bond yields eased on 30 October [R3]. Commerzbank called the fall exaggerated and expects a recovery [R4].
Our gold price view and how it has held
Our current view is in The Big Consolidation of 8 July 2026, which followed The Gold Question of 21 June 2026 [R5][R6]. It gave a range of US$3,900 to US$4,500 for the second half of 2026, with a centre of US$4,100 to US$4,300. It gave that base case a weight of about 55 per cent, a higher case about 25 per cent and a lower case, of US$3,200 to US$3,600, about 20 per cent. It allowed for one more fall toward, or briefly below, US$3,900. It also set an objective of US$5,000 to US$5,500 over two years, tied to the Fed changing course in 2027.
From 8 July to 30 October 2026 there were 82 trading days. Gold closed inside US$3,900 to US$4,500 on 72 of them and above it on 9. Gold closed below US$3,900 for the first time in that period on 30 October 2026, at US$3,899. The price at the ASX close of 2 November, US$3,910, is inside that range, US$10 above its floor. Those counts use daily closes. At today's exchange rate the range is about A$5,550 to A$6,410.
We have not changed the view. One close below the floor is the brief move the July piece allowed for. Our Rox Resources workup said in October that the move up comes later than first written and that the range lasts longer. October adds to that, and the range and the objective are unchanged. The July piece also named what would change the view. That is central bank buying rolling over, or a Fed hiking cycle that runs deep into 2027.
The large banks have been cutting their forecasts. CIBC cut its fourth quarter target to US$4,500 on 20 October, from US$6,500, and expects an average of US$5,200 in 2027 [R7]. Goldman Sachs cut its end of 2026 target to US$4,650 in September and kept US$5,400 for the end of 2027 [R8]. Both still sit at or above the top of our range. These figures are from news reports of the bank notes. Central banks were still buying in August. The World Gold Council, the industry's association, counted net purchases of 39 tonnes in August and 170 tonnes for the year to that month [R9].
Interest rates in the US and Australia
The Fed raised its target range on 16 September 2026 to 3.75 to 4.00 per cent [R16], and held it there on 28 October. Two of the twelve voting members wanted another rise. The statement said “Inflation remains elevated” [R10]. Market reports put the chance of a rise at the next meeting, on 8 and 9 December, at more than 70 per cent [R4].
The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate target, the rate it sets for overnight lending between banks, to 4.85 per cent on 3 November 2026. It was the fifth rise of 2026, from 3.60 per cent at the start of the year. Six members of the Monetary Policy Board voted for the rise and three voted to hold at 4.60 per cent. The statement said the economy is slowing and housing prices have fallen significantly. The next decision is on 8 December [R11].
Higher rates usually work against gold through the real yield, the interest on a government bond after expected inflation. Gold pays no interest, so a higher real yield raises the cost of holding it. In October the US 10-year real yield fell, from 2.88 to 2.60 per cent, and gold fell anyway [R12]. In our reading, the expected path of rates and selling to cover losses elsewhere mattered more this month.
What A$5,565 gold means for the series companies
The four studies for the series projects in the East Murchison and Yalgoo fields were modelled at gold prices from A$5,200 to A$5,714 an ounce. At about A$5,565, gold is 7 per cent above the A$5,200 in the Rox Resources study for Youanmi. It is 1 per cent above the A$5,500 in the Horizon Gold study for Gum Creek and the Capricorn Metals study for Mt Gibson. It is 3 per cent below the A$5,714 in the new study from Rumble Resources [R13]. Put simply, today's price is close to the prices these studies used, above three of them and just below Rumble's.
Rumble Resources released its updated Western Queen scoping study on 28 October. It has a production target of 125,000 ounces of contained gold, states an accuracy of plus or minus 30 per cent, and puts the first processing campaign at the Kirkalocka mill in the June quarter of 2028 [R13]. A scoping study is the earliest of the three study stages, and Rumble's label in this series is unchanged. The Yalgoo Insight was written before this study.
The main gold regions of Western Australia
Most of Western Australia is divided into mineral fields, areas the State uses to administer mining titles. The series uses the field names of the Department of Mines, Petroleum and Exploration. MINEDEX, the department's database of mines and deposits, lists 24,181 gold sites across the State in its extract of 30 October 2026 [R14]. Twelve fields each hold at least 50 sites it lists as operating (FIG. 02). On that count they are the main gold regions of Western Australia.
In order of operating gold sites, the twelve are Mt Margaret, Coolgardie, East Coolgardie, East Murchison, Murchison, Broad Arrow, North Coolgardie, Yilgarn, North East Coolgardie, Yalgoo, Pilbara and Peak Hill (TABLE 01). Six of them meet around Kalgoorlie and Leonora, the area investors usually call the Eastern Goldfields. Dundas, around Norseman, and the South West, around Boddington, have fewer operating sites, 22 and 14. A site can be a large mine or a small prospecting lease, so the count measures how much activity a field has, not how much gold it holds.
The series began in the west of the State's goldfields. The East Murchison Insight covers the field around Wiluna, Leinster and Sandstone, and the three companies there with Samso Research workups, Rox Resources, Horizon Gold and Brightstar Resources. The Yalgoo Insight covers the field around Yalgoo, with Capricorn Metals at Mt Gibson and Rumble Resources at Western Queen. The series will cover more regions. The Murchison Mineral Field, next to both, is planned for a later release.
What comes next for the gold price and the series
The Reserve Bank decides next on 8 December and the Fed on 9 December. In the Yalgoo field, Vault Minerals shareholders vote on 11 November on the scheme for Genesis Minerals to acquire Vault [R15]. In the East Murchison, Brightstar says its study for Sandstone is due this quarter [R17]. Each page in the series will be updated as these land.
What we still need to know is whether October was the brief fall the July view allowed for, or the start of a lower range. A few weeks of closes back inside US$3,900 to US$4,500 would answer the first. Closes held below it would point to the second.
THE OTHER WAY TO READ THIS The July view said a Fed hiking cycle that runs deep into 2027 would change it. Markets now expect another Fed rise in December, and two Fed members already voted for one in October. If that continues into 2027, the lower case of US$3,200 to US$3,600 becomes more likely than the 20 per cent the July piece gave it. On that reading, the close below US$3,900 is the first step into the lower range. |
Samso Concluding Comments
Gold has come back from its January high to the bottom of our range. At about A$5,565 an ounce it is still above most of the study prices in this series. We published that view in the past and lets see how that pans out in time. The range has held for most of the period, and the July piece allowed for a brief move below its floor. The Fed's path is the main thing that would change the view. If it keeps raising rates into 2027, the view will need to move, and we will say so.
SAMSO TAKE I read this as the market testing the floor of the range. The reasons gold rose in the first place, central bank buying and a world that is still worried about inflation, have not gone away. The rate outlook is what has changed. For the Western Australian gold regions, the Australian dollar price is the number to watch. Which matters more to you this quarter, the Fed's December decision or the next study price a company sets? |
Previous Samso Coverage of Gold and the Gold Regions Series
19 OCTOBER 2026
The Samso Insight on the East Murchison Mineral Field, its producers and the Rox, Horizon and Brightstar projects.
19 OCTOBER 2026
The Samso Insight on the Yalgoo Mineral Field, its producers, its mills and the Capricorn and Rumble projects.
19 JULY 2026
Twelve gold companies after the fall from the January high.
8 JULY 2026
Samso's current gold price view, the range and the two-year objective.
21 JUNE 2026
The three paths for the gold price that The Big Consolidation followed.
THE VOCABULARY, IN PLAIN ENGLISH Futures contract An agreement to buy or sell gold at a set price on a later date. The most traded contract trades close to the spot price. Spot price The price for gold delivered now. Real yield The interest on a government bond after expected inflation. Cash rate target The rate the Reserve Bank of Australia sets for overnight lending between banks. Mineral field An area declared by the Western Australian Government for administering mining titles. MINEDEX The Western Australian department's database of mines and mineral deposits. Scoping study The earliest and least certain of the three stages of mine study, before a pre-feasibility and a definitive feasibility study. Workup Samso Research's long study of a single company. |
References and sources
Each source carries a number in square brackets, such as [R1], which appears in the text where the source is used. The figures and the table in this piece were drawn by Samso from the sourced data named in each caption. Where the text uses Samso's arithmetic, it says so.
[R11] Reserve Bank of Australia, 3 November 2026. Statement by the Monetary Policy Board, Monetary Policy Decision, media release 2026-30. Meeting dates from the Board meeting schedule for 2026.
Cover image: the gold price in US dollars over two years, COMEX gold futures daily closes from Yahoo Finance, drawn by Samso as a background with no labels.
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