ASX today, RBA lifts rates to 4.85%, Qantas up 6.36%

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Updated: 11 hours ago

Samso Market Update | Tuesday, 3 November 2026 | Market close 4:30pm AEDT

On the ASX today, the S&P/ASX 200 closed up 30.3 points, or 0.34%, at 8,886.8 (Yahoo Finance data), on the day the Reserve Bank lifted the cash rate 0.25 percentage points to 4.85% on a 6 to 3 vote. Property trusts rose 2.85% and energy fell 3.45%. Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, settled 7.63% lower overnight, as this morning's pre-market edition below reported. The index stood at 8,846.0 when the decision came out at 2:30pm AEDT, below Monday's close. The All Ordinaries, which tracks the 500 largest listed companies, rose 0.35% to 9,008.9. The S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries, an index of the companies ranked 101 to 300 by size, rose 0.32% to 3,151.8. Monday's editions are at ASX today, Monday 2 November 2026.

ASX today, key highlights

The ASX 200 today closed up 0.34% at 8,886.8, with a high of 8,909.1 and a low of 8,843.3. Seven of the 11 sectors rose.
The Reserve Bank raised the cash rate to 4.85%, its fifth rise this year and the highest setting since 2008, the ABC reported. Six board members voted for the rise and three to hold.
Property trusts rose 2.85%, consumer discretionary 1.87% and communication services 1.72%. Energy fell 3.45%.
Qantas Airways (ASX: QAN) rose 6.36% and Virgin Australia Holdings (ASX: VGN) 8.87%, which the ABC linked to Monday's fall in oil. Woodside Energy Group (ASX: WDS) fell 3.53%.
AMP (ASX: AMP) fell 9.36% to A$2.13, its second large fall in two days. Alpha HPA (ASX: A4N) fell 24.72%. Neither has made a market-sensitive ASX announcement.
Of the 1,420 companies with a market value on the ASX that traded today, 534 rose, 549 fell and 337 were unchanged.

The Reserve Bank's 6 to 3 decision

The Reserve Bank's board raised its cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.85%. A basis point is one hundredth of a percentage point. "Today's policy decision was by majority: six members voted to increase the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.85 per cent; three members voted to leave the cash rate target unchanged at 4.60 per cent," the statement said.

The board said inflation "remains elevated" and is "not expected to reach the top of the 2–3 per cent target range until late 2027, around three quarters later than previously forecast". It said the economy "is slowing, housing prices have fallen significantly and the unemployment rate has risen". The Statement on Monetary Policy, published at the same time, forecasts trimmed mean inflation, which strips out the biggest price moves and is the measure of underlying inflation the Reserve Bank watches closely, of 3.6% at December 2026 and 2.9% at December 2027. It forecasts unemployment of 4.7% at December 2026 and 5.1% at December 2028, and it assumes a cash rate of 4.9% at June 2027.

Governor Michele Bullock said at her 3:30pm AEDT press conference, "I don't know what the next move will be". She also said, "it is probably a good point to just take stock for a minute and see what comes in", the ABC reported. Those who voted to hold put more weight on a housing downturn, rising unemployment and no signs of faster wage growth, she said.

Economists split on what comes next. UBS chief economist George Tharenou called the statement "clearly dovish", meaning less inclined to raise rates again, and said the board had dropped its wording on raising rates further. Betashares chief economist David Bassanese expects at least one more rise, in February 2027. Capital Economics, a research house, expects no more rises and a cut at the end of next year. All three comments came through the ABC.

The ASX 200 was at 8,846.0 at about 2:30pm AEDT and at 8,892.6 by 3:05pm AEDT (Yahoo Finance data). The Australian dollar fell to 69.76 US cents at 2:42pm AEDT, and the ABC said that indicated traders saw the statement as "more dovish", with the governor still to speak.

In plain terms, the board raised rates, split on doing so, and the governor said she does not know what the next move will be.

Sectors, oil and banks

Property trusts, listed funds that own buildings, were the strongest sector at +2.85%. Stockland (ASX: SGP) rose 3.96% to A$4.46, Scentre Group (ASX: SCG) 3.68% to A$3.66, GPT Group (ASX: GPT) 3.64% to A$5.13 and Goodman Group (ASX: GMG) 2.44% to A$27.31. Lendlease Group (ASX: LLC) rose 5.51% to A$2.49. None of the five has made a market-sensitive ASX announcement today. Arena REIT (ASX: ARF) rose 3.79% to A$2.74 on the day it updated its FY2027 distribution guidance, the payout to investors, to 20.0 cents a security.

Energy was the weakest sector. Woodside fell 3.53% to A$32.24 on turnover, the dollar value of shares traded, of A$169.4 million. Santos (ASX: STO) fell 1.75% to A$8.96. The coal producers fell further, Yancoal Australia (ASX: YAL) by 6.43%, New Hope Corporation (ASX: NHC) by 5.40% and Whitehaven Coal (ASX: WHC) by 5.05%.

Oil fell on Monday on comments by US President Donald Trump and talks between Iranian and Qatari officials, the ABC reported. The fall was "good news for businesses that consume extraordinary amounts of fuel, like airlines", the ABC said at 11:23am AEDT. Qantas rose 6.36% to A$9.36 on turnover of A$96.2 million. Virgin Australia rose 8.87% to A$2.70.

Retailers rose. Harvey Norman Holdings (ASX: HVN) rose 5.81% to A$4.37, JB Hi-Fi (ASX: JBH) 3.09% to A$75.15 and Wesfarmers (ASX: WES) 1.74% to A$78.46. Coles Group (ASX: COL) rose 1.69% to A$21.64 and Woolworths Group (ASX: WOW) 1.14% to A$39.91, a partial recovery from Monday's falls of 1.75% and 1.89%.

Financials rose 0.42%. Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) rose 1.32% to A$167.23 and was the most traded stock by value, on A$269.6 million. National Australia Bank (ASX: NAB) rose 0.15% to A$40.97. Westpac Banking Corporation (ASX: WBC) fell 0.99% to A$36.82 and ANZ Group Holdings (ASX: ANZ) 0.54% to A$40.34. Macquarie Bank was the first to respond to the decision, the ABC reported, lifting its variable home loan rates by 0.25 percentage points from 19 November.

Materials fell 0.17%. BHP Group (ASX: BHP) fell 0.56% to A$56.42, Rio Tinto (ASX: RIO) 0.05% to A$145.51, and Fortescue (ASX: FMG) rose 0.91% to A$14.40. The S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold index rose 0.30%, and Northern Star Resources (ASX: NST) was unchanged at A$24.07. Health care fell 0.58%, with CSL (ASX: CSL) down 1.21% to A$198.72.

The day's data and Asia

Consumer confidence fell 1.7 points last week to 66.2 on the ANZ-Roy Morgan measure, the lowest since late May, the ABC reported. National dwelling prices will fall about 14% from peak to trough, CBA now expects, the ABC also reported. China's central bank said it will raise its foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio, the share of foreign currency deposits banks must set aside, to 6% from 4%, starting 15 November.

Tokyo was closed for Culture Day. Hong Kong's Hang Seng was up 0.56% at 23,523.98 and the Shanghai Composite down 1.04% at 3,600.18 at 4:18pm AEDT, with both markets still trading (Yahoo Finance data).

Blue Chips (above A$1 billion)

Samso's four size bands, with the ASX top gainers and top losers in each, use market value at Monday's close. They are not the S&P/ASX indices of the same names. Shares with turnover under A$50,000 are left out. Turnover for every mover is in Table 01, below the Micro Caps section.

Gainers. Virgin Australia rose 8.87% to A$2.70, from A$2.48, and Qantas 6.36% to A$9.36. Neither has made an ASX announcement since Monday afternoon, and the ABC linked both rises to oil. Netwealth Group (ASX: NWL) rose 6.91% to A$19.49. Its only announcement was a disclosure of interests under an ASIC deed poll.

Barrenjoey Group (ASX: BJY) rose 6.14% to A$8.47, Harvey Norman 5.81% to A$4.37 and Nick Scali (ASX: NCK) 5.55% to A$13.12, each with no ASX announcement since Monday afternoon.

Fallers. AMP fell 9.36% to A$2.13, from A$2.35, on turnover of A$77.9 million. It fell 7.48% on Monday, when its reply to an ASX price query said a quarterly report from China Life Pension Company, part-owned by AMP, "may have contributed". Its only announcement today was its daily buy-back notice, which showed it bought 4,472,790 shares for A$10.4 million on Monday.

Smartgroup Corporation (ASX: SIQ) fell 7.97% to A$11.08 and 4DMedical (ASX: 4DX) 7.31% to A$2.41, each with no ASX announcement since Monday afternoon. 4DMedical rose 6.56% on Monday and fell 25.61% on Friday. Viva Energy Group (ASX: VEA) fell 6.57% to A$2.70, also with no ASX announcement since Monday afternoon. Yancoal fell 6.43% to A$5.68, and its only announcements were notices for an extraordinary general meeting, lodged on Monday evening. Benz Mining Corp. (ASX: BNZ) fell 5.87% to A$3.85, with only a notice on unquoted securities.

Mid Caps (A$500 million to A$1 billion)

Gainers. Temple & Webster Group (ASX: TPW) rose 6.96% to A$5.84, MA Financial Group (ASX: MAF) 4.65% to A$4.95, Charter Hall Social Infrastructure REIT (ASX: CQE) 4.03% to A$2.58, Tuas (ASX: TUA) 3.70% to A$1.40 and Ophir High Conviction Fund (ASX: OPH) 3.11% to A$2.32, each with no ASX announcement since Monday afternoon. Universal Store Holdings (ASX: UNI) rose 4.38% to A$7.86, with only a notice on unquoted securities.

Fallers. Alpha HPA fell 24.72% to A$0.335, from A$0.445, on turnover of A$9.0 million, with no ASX announcement since Monday afternoon. It rose 7.23% on Monday, the day it said it had started the process of drawing down a A$160 million debt commitment. Samso found no reported reason for today's fall.

Forrestania Resources (ASX: FRS) fell 9.38% to A$0.29. Its announcements were notices on its own stakes in Leeuwin Metals (ASX: LM1) and Zenith Minerals (ASX: ZNC), and a notice on 681,414 shares issued for tenements. Anteris Technologies Global Corp. (ASX: AVR) fell 7.32% to A$8.48 on turnover of A$88,000. WIA Gold (ASX: WIA) fell 6.49% to A$0.36, Weebit Nano (ASX: WBT) 5.51% to A$2.23 and Deep Yellow (ASX: DYL) 5.44% to A$0.695. None of the four has made an ASX announcement since Monday afternoon.

ASX Small Caps (A$150 million to A$500 million)

Gainers. Vitrafy Life Sciences (ASX: VFY) rose 21.70% to A$2.86, from A$2.35, on turnover of A$120,000. Nova Minerals (ASX: NVA) rose 14.58% to A$0.55, and rose 17.07% on Monday. Baby Bunting Group (ASX: BBN) rose 11.26% to A$1.235, Toubani Resources (ASX: TRE) 10.00% to A$0.275 and Autosports Group (ASX: ASG) 8.10% to A$1.135. None of the five has made an ASX announcement since Monday afternoon. Dateline Resources (ASX: DTR) rose 11.76% to A$0.076, from A$0.068, with only a director's interest notice.

Fallers. Alligator Energy (ASX: AGE) fell 9.09% to A$0.03, Finder Energy Holdings (ASX: FDR) 8.77% to A$0.26, Barton Gold Holdings (ASX: BGD) 7.59% to A$0.73, Fenix Resources (ASX: FEX) 7.50% to A$0.185, Titomic (ASX: TTT) 7.07% to A$0.092 and Altair Minerals (ASX: ALR) 6.90% to A$0.027. None of the six has made an ASX announcement since Monday afternoon.

Micro Caps (below A$150 million)

Shares priced below one cent are left out.

Gainers. Janus Electric Holdings (ASX: JNS) rose 14.58% to A$0.55 on turnover of A$1.2 million, on the day it said it had lodged 16 more applications under a California truck incentive program, 20 in total for one customer. It said submission does not guarantee funding. Australis Oil & Gas (ASX: ATS) rose 11.76% to A$0.038, and Botanix Pharmaceuticals (ASX: BOT) 11.11% to A$0.01, a rise of one tenth of a cent. Cyclopharm (ASX: CYC) rose 7.61% to A$0.495. None of the three has made an ASX announcement since Monday afternoon. Nyrada Inc. (ASX: NYR) rose 7.78% to A$0.485, with only a notice on the quotation of new options. Cettire (ASX: CTT) rose 7.35% to A$0.365, with only a substantial holder notice, a filing by a large shareholder.

Fallers. Far East Gold (ASX: FEG) fell 13.04% to A$0.10, from A$0.115, on the day it launched a share purchase plan at A$0.10. QMines (ASX: QML) fell 11.67% to A$0.053, from A$0.06, on the day it said it had firm commitments for a A$5.5 million placement at A$0.052 a share, to fund its Mt Chalmers feasibility study and drilling.

Killi Resources (ASX: KLI) fell 13.04% to A$0.20, Sprintex (ASX: SIX) 11.11% to A$0.056 and Bellavista Resources (ASX: BVR) 10.81% to A$0.165, each with no ASX announcement since Monday afternoon. Orpheus Uranium (ASX: ORP) fell 9.52% to A$0.076, with only an investor presentation.

Table of the ASX biggest movers by Samso size band, Tuesday 3 November 2026. Blue Chips, above A$1 billion. VGN, Virgin Australia Holdings, A$2.70, +8.87%, market cap A$1.94bn, turnover A$5.63m, announcement: None. NWL, Netwealth Group, A$19.49, +6.91%, market cap A$4.48bn, turnover A$15.32m, announcement: Disclosure of interests, ASIC deed poll. QAN, Qantas Airways, A$9.36, +6.36%, market cap A$13.32bn, turnover A$96.17m, announcement: None. BJY, Barrenjoey Group, A$8.47, +6.14%, market cap A$2.34bn, turnover A$8.10m, announcement: None. HVN, Harvey Norman Holdings, A$4.37, +5.81%, market cap A$5.15bn, turnover A$22.02m, announcement: None. NCK, Nick Scali, A$13.12, +5.55%, market cap A$1.06bn, turnover A$4.70m, announcement: None. AMP, AMP, A$2.13, -9.36%, market cap A$5.65bn, turnover A$77.87m, announcement: Daily buy-back notice. SIQ, Smartgroup Corporation, A$11.08, -7.97%, market cap A$1.66bn, turnover A$11.88m, announcement: None. 4DX, 4DMedical, A$2.41, -7.31%, market cap A$1.57bn, turnover A$15.14m, announcement: None. VEA, Viva Energy Group, A$2.70, -6.57%, market cap A$4.78bn, turnover A$15.33m, announcement: None. YAL, Yancoal Australia, A$5.68, -6.43%, market cap A$8.02bn, turnover A$21.49m, announcement: Extraordinary general meeting notices. BNZ, Benz Mining Corp., A$3.85, -5.87%, market cap A$1.55bn, turnover A$1.94m, announcement: Notice on unquoted securities. Mid Caps, A$500 million to A$1 billion. TPW, Temple & Webster Group, A$5.84, +6.96%, market cap A$636m, turnover A$7.13m, announcement: None. MAF, MA Financial Group, A$4.95, +4.65%, market cap A$943m, turnover A$996k, announcement: None. UNI, Universal Store Holdings, A$7.86, +4.38%, market cap A$578m, turnover A$1.55m, announcement: Notice on unquoted securities. CQE, Charter Hall Social Infrastructure REIT, A$2.58, +4.03%, market cap A$920m, turnover A$5.76m, announcement: None. TUA, Tuas, A$1.40, +3.70%, market cap A$740m, turnover A$4.61m, announcement: None. OPH, Ophir High Conviction Fund, A$2.32, +3.11%, market cap A$501m, turnover A$247k, announcement: None. A4N, Alpha HPA, A$0.335, -24.72%, market cap A$646m, turnover A$8.99m, announcement: None. FRS, Forrestania Resources, A$0.29, -9.38%, market cap A$790m, turnover A$1.02m, announcement: Notices on its LM1 and ZNC stakes, share issue. AVR, Anteris Technologies Global Corp., A$8.48, -7.32%, market cap A$892m, turnover A$88k, announcement: None. WIA, WIA Gold, A$0.36, -6.49%, market cap A$769m, turnover A$333k, announcement: None. WBT, Weebit Nano, A$2.23, -5.51%, market cap A$574m, turnover A$2.72m, announcement: None. DYL, Deep Yellow, A$0.695, -5.44%, market cap A$716m, turnover A$5.36m, announcement: None. Small Caps, A$150 million to A$500 million. VFY, Vitrafy Life Sciences, A$2.86, +21.70%, market cap A$179m, turnover A$120k, announcement: None. NVA, Nova Minerals, A$0.55, +14.58%, market cap A$220m, turnover A$450k, announcement: None. DTR, Dateline Resources, A$0.076, +11.76%, market cap A$273m, turnover A$1.12m, announcement: Director's interest notice. BBN, Baby Bunting Group, A$1.235, +11.26%, market cap A$152m, turnover A$646k, announcement: None. TRE, Toubani Resources, A$0.275, +10.00%, market cap A$268m, turnover A$358k, announcement: None. ASG, Autosports Group, A$1.135, +8.10%, market cap A$224m, turnover A$769k, announcement: None. AGE, Alligator Energy, A$0.03, -9.09%, market cap A$160m, turnover A$168k, announcement: None. FDR, Finder Energy Holdings, A$0.26, -8.77%, market cap A$158m, turnover A$109k, announcement: None. BGD, Barton Gold Holdings, A$0.73, -7.59%, market cap A$215m, turnover A$169k, announcement: None. FEX, Fenix Resources, A$0.185, -7.50%, market cap A$154m, turnover A$169k, announcement: None. TTT, Titomic, A$0.092, -7.07%, market cap A$177m, turnover A$535k, announcement: None. ALR, Altair Minerals, A$0.027, -6.90%, market cap A$192m, turnover A$81k, announcement: None. Micro Caps, below A$150 million. JNS, Janus Electric Holdings, A$0.55, +14.58%, market cap A$91m, turnover A$1.16m, announcement: North America update. ATS, Australis Oil & Gas, A$0.038, +11.76%, market cap A$47m, turnover A$76k, announcement: None. BOT, Botanix Pharmaceuticals, A$0.01, +11.11%, market cap A$25m, turnover A$67k, announcement: None. NYR, Nyrada Inc., A$0.485, +7.78%, market cap A$117m, turnover A$65k, announcement: Quotation of new options. CYC, Cyclopharm, A$0.495, +7.61%, market cap A$58m, turnover A$83k, announcement: None. CTT, Cettire, A$0.365, +7.35%, market cap A$130m, turnover A$895k, announcement: Substantial holder notice. FEG, Far East Gold, A$0.10, -13.04%, market cap A$48m, turnover A$67k, announcement: Share purchase plan at A$0.10. KLI, Killi Resources, A$0.20, -13.04%, market cap A$83m, turnover A$120k, announcement: None. QML, QMines, A$0.053, -11.67%, market cap A$46m, turnover A$165k, announcement: A$5.5m placement at A$0.052. SIX, Sprintex, A$0.056, -11.11%, market cap A$46m, turnover A$59k, announcement: None. BVR, Bellavista Resources, A$0.165, -10.81%, market cap A$40m, turnover A$309k, announcement: None. ORP, Orpheus Uranium, A$0.076, -9.52%, market cap A$35m, turnover A$192k, announcement: Investor presentation.

Commodities and Currency

December gold futures, contracts for delivery in a set later month, were at US$3,934.80 an ounce at 4:23pm AEDT, down 0.88% from Monday's close of US$3,969.60 (Yahoo Finance data).
December copper futures in New York were at US$6.4265 a pound at 4:23pm AEDT, down 2.15% from Monday's close of US$6.5675 (Yahoo Finance data).
January Brent crude futures were at US$105.22 a barrel at 4:21pm AEDT, up 0.43% from Monday's settlement of US$104.77. December West Texas Intermediate, the US benchmark, was at US$97.01 at 4:23pm AEDT, up 0.57% from US$96.46 (Yahoo Finance data).
Iron ore was last priced on Monday at US$91.25 a tonne, up 0.60%, Trading Economics reported. Samso found no dated Tuesday price.
The Australian dollar was buying 69.82 US cents at 4:33pm AEDT, against 70.24 US cents at the same time on Monday and 69.97 US cents at 8:09am AEDT today (Yahoo Finance data).

Samso Concluding Comments

The ASX 200 rose 0.34% to 8,886.8 on the day the Reserve Bank lifted the cash rate to 4.85% on a 6 to 3 vote. Property trusts rose 2.85% and energy fell 3.45%. Across the ASX, 534 companies rose and 549 fell. Samso will watch tomorrow's Monthly Household Spending Indicator at 11:30am AEDT, and how bank and property shares trade once the market has read the governor's comments in full.

General information only. This is not financial advice.

Samso Market Update | Tuesday, 3 November 2026 | Pre-market 9:45am AEDT

On the ASX today, S&P/ASX 200 futures pointed to a rise of 64 points, or 0.7%, The Motley Fool reported at 7:38am AEDT. The ABC put the rise at 0.9% at approximately 7:15am AEDT. Both readings came before Wall Street closed at 8:00am AEDT. SPI futures, also called ASX 200 futures or ASX futures, are contracts on the ASX 200 that settle against the index on a set later date. The Australian dollar was buying 69.97 US cents at 8:09am AEDT (Yahoo Finance data). Brent crude oil settled 7.63% lower overnight, and the Reserve Bank's rate decision is due at 2:30pm AEDT, 30 minutes before the Melbourne Cup. The ASX is open as normal today.

The S&P/ASX 200 closed on Monday at 8,856.5, down 51.6 points or 0.58%. The All Ordinaries, which tracks the 500 largest listed companies, fell 0.53% to 8,977.2. The S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries, an index of the companies ranked 101 to 300 by size, fell 0.20% to 3,141.7 (Yahoo Finance data).

ASX today: Key Highlights

ASX 200 futures pointed to a rise of 64 points, or 0.7%, The Motley Fool reported at 7:38am AEDT.
The Reserve Bank's rate decision is due at 2:30pm AEDT. CBA said a 0.25 percentage point rise to 4.85% was widely expected and approximately 80% priced.
January Brent crude settled 7.63% lower at US$104.77 a barrel. The ABC linked the fall to comments by US President Donald Trump and talks between Iranian and Qatari officials.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.41%, the S&P 500 fell 0.51% and the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.07% (Yahoo Finance data).
Marvell Technology closed down 12.72% and Lumentum 18.59%. Marvell agreed on Monday to buy Lumentum in a share deal.
December gold futures were 1.44% above Friday's late price at US$3,955.10 an ounce.

Wall Street overnight

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.41% on Monday to 51,983.98. The S&P 500 fell 0.51% to 7,541.40 and the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.07% to 25,164.32. The Russell 2000, an index of smaller US companies, fell 0.21% to 2,805.92 (Yahoo Finance data). Yahoo Finance said the decline in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq during the session was "largely tech-driven", with the tech sector down 2.4% at 2:41pm New York time, "dragged lower by hardware and chip stocks".

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, which tracks chip makers' shares listed in the US, fell 3.37%. Intel fell 8.80% to US$59.97, after falling 28.58% on Friday. AMD fell 7.52% and Nvidia 1.26%. Marvell Technology fell 12.72% to US$171.41 and Lumentum 18.59% to US$684.40 (Yahoo Finance data). Marvell agreed on Monday to buy Lumentum, which makes optical components, in a share deal Yahoo Finance put at about US$115 billion. Lumentum holders would receive 4.5 Marvell shares for each share, so the offer's value moves with Marvell's price. For ASX investors, the US weakness on Monday was mainly in chip and hardware shares, and the Dow rose.

Exxon Mobil, the oil producer, fell 3.98%. Amazon rose 2.20%. Apple closed down 1.83% at US$338.32. Its results were scheduled for after the close, and this edition does not cover them. Its shares were at US$333.00 at 4:34pm New York time, 1.57% below the close (Yahoo Finance data).

Palantir Technologies closed down 3.13% at US$178.34. After the close it said September quarter revenue grew 96% to US$2.313 billion, and raised its full-year revenue guidance to between US$8.530 billion and US$8.534 billion. Its shares were at US$180.13 at 4:34pm New York time, 1.00% above the close (Yahoo Finance data).

The Institute for Supply Management's US manufacturing index rose to 55.5 in October from 54.5 in September, Yahoo Finance reported. A reading above 50 points to expansion. Fed funds futures, contracts that settle on the US federal funds rate, showed 76% odds of a rate rise in December, Yahoo Finance said at 12:17pm New York time.

The US 10-year Treasury yield was 4.894% at 2:59pm New York time on Monday, down 3.5 basis points from 4.929% on Friday (Yahoo Finance data). A Treasury is US government debt. The yield is the yearly return from buying that debt at today's price and holding it until it is repaid, and a basis point is one hundredth of a percentage point. When yields fall, bond prices rise.

Japan and Asia

The Nikkei 225 closed on Monday at 63,081.86, down 0.33% from 63,290.11 on Friday (Yahoo Finance data). Tokyo's share market is closed today for Culture Day, the Japan Exchange Group's holiday calendar shows, which leaves no Japanese session for ASX traders to follow. The US dollar was buying 157.94 yen at 8:11am AEDT. Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 0.42% to 23,393.32 on Monday, and the Shanghai Composite rose 1.08% to 3,638.03 (Yahoo Finance data).

London and Europe

London's FTSE 100 closed on Monday at 10,761.33, up 0.29%. Germany's DAX rose 0.63% to 25,981.09, and France's CAC 40 rose 0.98% to 8,047.69 (Yahoo Finance data). The Bank of England's next rate decision is due on Thursday at noon London time, Finance Calendar lists.

Currencies

The Australian dollar was at 69.97 US cents at 8:09am AEDT, against 70.24 US cents at 4:33pm AEDT on Monday, the figure in Samso's market close (Yahoo Finance data). The ABC said it dropped a touch below 70 US cents overnight. Against the yen, the Australian dollar was buying 110.47 yen at 8:11am AEDT. The US dollar index, which measures the US dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 101.77 at 8:01am AEDT. CBA's economists wrote this morning that the upside for the Australian dollar was limited, with a 0.25 percentage point rise approximately 80% priced. They said it would take a very hawkish statement or press conference to push it above 70.76 US cents, and that they would not be surprised to see it fall after a rate rise.

Commodities

January Brent crude futures, the international oil benchmark, settled US$8.66 or 7.63% lower at US$104.77 a barrel. December West Texas Intermediate crude futures, the US benchmark, fell US$7.66 or 7.36% to US$96.46 (ABC, reporting with Reuters). Mr Trump said on Monday that Iran wanted to make a deal to end the war and that an agreement "could happen", the ABC reported, and Qatari mediators travelled to Tehran for talks. Analyst Pavel Molchanov told Reuters that scepticism was warranted after many "false dawns" in recent months, the ABC said. Brent ended October at its highest level in six months, the ABC said.

December gold futures were at US$3,955.10 an ounce at 8:01am AEDT, 1.44% above Friday's late price of US$3,898.90. December silver futures were at US$50.57 an ounce, 2.63% higher. December copper futures in New York were at US$6.537 a pound, 0.85% higher (Yahoo Finance data).

Iron ore was at US$91.25 a tonne on Monday, up 0.60%, Trading Economics reported. For ASX investors, energy producers open on a lower oil price, and gold, copper and iron ore producers on higher metal prices.

Today's diary

All times AEDT.

8:22am. Tivan (ASX: TVN) said an updated Mineral Resource, an estimate of the mineral in the ground, for its Speewah Fluorite Project in Western Australia came to 45.0 million tonnes at 7.8% calcium fluoride, containing 3.5 million tonnes. It said most of it is now in the Indicated category, which is required before material can be included in Ore Reserves.
8:22am. Arena REIT (ASX: ARF) updated its FY2027 distribution guidance to 20.0 cents a security, a 3.9% increase on FY2026.
2:30pm. The Reserve Bank's rate decision and its quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy, which holds its updated forecasts. The cash rate target is 4.60%, after a rise effective 30 September (RBA). The ABC said a rise to 4.85% would be the fifth this year and the highest setting in 18 years.
3:00pm. The Melbourne Cup.
3:30pm. Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock's press conference (ABC).
No Australian Bureau of Statistics release is listed today. The next releases are due tomorrow at 11:30am, including the Monthly Household Spending Indicator for September.
Tuesday in the US. The US midterm elections.
Wednesday, after 8:00am. AMD reports its third quarter results after Tuesday's New York close, Yahoo Finance said.

Samso Concluding Comments

The decline in the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq during the session was largely tech-driven, with hardware and chip stocks dragging the sector, Yahoo Finance said. Oil fell on Mr Trump's comments and on talks between Iranian and Qatari officials, the ABC reported. Samso will watch how ASX energy shares open after the oil fall, then how bank and property shares trade on the Reserve Bank's decision and Ms Bullock's press conference.

Monday's editions are at ASX today, Monday 2 November 2026, and Friday's are at ASX today, Friday 30 October 2026.

General information only. This is not financial advice.