ASX Today: Early Gains Erased as Small Caps Lead the Weekly Retreat

Samso Weekly Market Wrap | Week ending Friday, September 25, 2026

Australian shares finished the week lower after three modest daily gains gave way to selling on Thursday and Friday, as rising global bond yields, renewed oil-supply concerns and expectations of further interest-rate increases weighed on sentiment.

The S&P/ASX 200 closed Friday at 8,654.60, down 47.40 points, or 0.54%. Across the week, the benchmark lost 76.60 points, or 0.88%, from the previous Friday’s close of 8,731.20.

Smaller companies suffered a sharper reversal. The Small Ordinaries closed at 3,355.50, down 1.36% on Friday and 1.67% for the week, giving back its midweek gains.

ASX today: Weekly Key Highlights

• ASX 200 loses 0.88% for the week, with Thursday and Friday erasing the earlier advance.

• Small Ordinaries decline 1.67%, reversing the previous week’s outperformance.

• US Treasury yields reach their highest levels since 2007, increasing pressure on equity valuations.

• Australian unemployment reaches 4.6%, while employment and participation also rise.

• Oil returns above US$100, supporting energy producers but complicating the inflation outlook.

• Attention turns to the RBA’s September 29 decision.

Three positive sessions fail to establish momentum

The week began quietly. On Monday, the ASX 200 added just 0.70 points to 8,731.90, with banks and healthcare companies helping offset technology weakness.

Tuesday delivered the strongest advance. The benchmark gained 25.90 points, or 0.30%, to 8,757.80, following renewed enthusiasm for artificial-intelligence-related stocks on Wall Street.

Australian information technology rose 2.67%. WiseTech Global gained 2.86%, TechnologyOne added 2.67% and Xero advanced 1.61%. Materials also strengthened, while energy and utilities lagged.

Wednesday brought another gain, but participation narrowed. The ASX 200 rose 7.50 points to 8,765.30, with only three of the 11 major sectors finishing higher.

Materials gained 1.57%, supported by BHP, Rio Tinto and gold producers. Utilities fell 2.21%, highlighting the uneven performance beneath the modest index advance.

Bond yields change the market backdrop

The week’s decisive external development was the sell-off in government bonds.

The US 10-year Treasury yield climbed above 5% and reached approximately 5.22%, its highest level since 2007. The 30-year yield touched its highest level since 2004 as investors reassessed inflation risks and the prospect of further Federal Reserve tightening.

Higher yields make government debt more competitive with equities and reduce the present value of future corporate earnings. They also increase financing costs, particularly for indebted businesses and companies that need additional capital.

That pressure coincided with another rise in oil prices. Brent settled Thursday at US$106.60 a barrel after Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia revived supply concerns, despite continuing diplomatic discussions involving the United States and Iran.

Brent eased towards US$105.70–US$105.90 during Friday morning trading but remained elevated.

Small caps reverse their midweek advance

The Small Ordinaries entered the week at 3,412.50 and reached 3,422.90 on Wednesday.

It then fell to 3,401.70 on Thursday, before losing another 46.20 points to 3,355.50 on Friday. Its weekly decline of 1.67% was almost twice the ASX 200’s percentage loss.

The closing figures strengthen the picture seen during Friday afternoon: selling was heavier among smaller companies, despite isolated stocks recording substantial gains.

That underperformance is consistent with greater caution towards risk, although index movements alone cannot establish why investors sold individual companies.

Unemployment rises without changing rate expectations

Australia’s unemployment rate reached 4.6% in August, while employment increased by 39,500.

The employment gain comprised a 45,800 increase in part-time positions and a 6,300 decline in full-time employment. Participation rose to 67.1%, while underemployment eased to 6.2%.

The result was mixed: more people found work, but the labour force expanded faster than employment. Hours worked also increased.

The figures did little to reduce expectations of another RBA increase. On Thursday afternoon, LSEG pricing cited by ABC implied a 96.5% probability of a rise at the next meeting.

The ASX 200 recovered from its Thursday morning lows but still finished down 63.30 points, or 0.72%, at 8,702.00.

Technology and resources lose consistency

Tuesday’s technology rally proved difficult to sustain. By Friday afternoon, Xero was down more than 3% and HUB24 approximately 5%, as growth and financial-platform stocks came under renewed pressure.

Resources also showed substantial variation. Materials led Wednesday’s advance, but lithium, rare-earth and several gold companies weakened later in the week.

Selected gold producers attracted buying on Friday, including Genesis Minerals, Vault Minerals and Westgold Resources. That support did not extend across the resources sector.

Energy followed a different pattern. Falling oil prices weighed early in the week, while the subsequent rebound supported producers and refiners. Higher crude nevertheless carried adverse implications for transport costs, household spending and inflation.

Business activity slows as the dollar weakens

Australia’s September flash purchasing managers’ surveys provided further evidence of slowing activity.

The composite PMI fell to 50.8 from 52.7, remaining above the 50 threshold separating expansion from contraction. Manufacturing slipped to 49.3 from 52.0, while services eased to 51.4 from 53.2.

Manufacturing output fell to 46.4, and private-sector employment declined for the first time since May.

The Australian dollar also weakened, moving from approximately US71.18 cents on Monday to US70.08 cents during Friday trading.

A lower currency can benefit exporters and businesses earning overseas revenue, but it also increases the Australian-dollar cost of imports, including fuel.

What matters next week

The RBA’s September 29 decision is the principal domestic event. The cash rate stands at 4.35%; a 25-basis-point increase would take it to 4.60%.

Investors will assess both the decision and the accompanying explanation, particularly the balance between persistent inflation, higher unemployment and slowing business activity.

Global bond yields and Middle East developments remain important external influences. Sustained oil-price strength could support energy earnings while making the broader inflation problem more difficult.

Samso Concluding Comments

This week showed how quickly market leadership can change. Technology led Tuesday’s advance, materials supported Wednesday, and energy provided some protection as the broader market weakened.

Small caps offered the clearest evidence of that change in sentiment, ending the week with larger losses than the benchmark.

For investors, the distinction remains between a falling share price and a deteriorating business. Cash reserves, funding requirements, operating costs and the timing of future earnings become particularly important when borrowing costs rise. Next week’s RBA decision will help define the conditions in which those businesses must operate.

Samso Afternoon Market Update | Friday, September 25, 2026 | 2.00pm AEST

Australian small caps were under heavier selling pressure than the broader market on Friday afternoon, as elevated global bond yields and oil above US$100 a barrel maintained concerns about inflation and borrowing costs.

The S&P/ASX 200 was down 42.20 points, or 0.48%, at 8,659.80, having recovered from a session low of 8,639.90.

The Small Ordinaries fell 46 points, or 1.35%, to 3,355.70—almost three times the percentage decline in the benchmark. The index had touched 3,350.50 after starting the session at 3,401.70.

ASX today: Key Highlights

• Small Ordinaries decline 1.35%, significantly underperforming the ASX 200.

• Consumer staples provide support, while most other sectors remain under pressure.

• Netwealth, Elders and EQ Resources retreat sharply.

• Selected gold producers advance, despite weakness elsewhere in resources.

• Bitcoin trades near US$84,350, while investors await tonight’s US economic releases.

Small caps bear the heavier losses

Friday’s decline reversed the relative resilience smaller companies displayed during Thursday’s sell-off.

Several smaller stocks recorded losses of between 16% and 33%. There were isolated gains, including NX1, up 66.67%, and M24, up 33.33%, but these did not prevent a substantial decline in the Small Ordinaries.

Selling also extended into mid-caps. Netwealth Group fell 8.04%, Elders declined 7.27% and EQ Resources lost 7%.

The index comparison shows clear small-cap underperformance, although it does not establish a common cause for every individual share-price move.

Consumer staples and selected gold stocks hold up

Consumer staples were the clearest area of sector strength. Information technology, communication services, utilities, real estate, industrials and consumer discretionary shares remained under pressure.

Among larger companies, HUB24 declined 5.04%, Mineral Resources fell 3.71%, CAR Group lost 3.33% and Xero retreated 3.30%.

Selected gold producers moved against the broader trend. Genesis Minerals, Vault Minerals and Westgold Resources were higher, providing some resilience within an otherwise uneven resources market.

Asian markets prove more resilient

Japan’s Nikkei 225 was approximately 1.3% higher in the supplied afternoon snapshot, while MSCI’s broad Asia-Pacific index excluding Japan was roughly flat.

Regional activity was reduced by holiday closures in mainland China, Taiwan and South Korea. The Asian equities were holding up despite continued pressure in global bond markets.

The US 10-year Treasury yield had reached approximately 5.22%, its highest level since 2007, while the 30-year yield touched its highest level since 2004.

Wall Street finished Thursday almost unchanged overall: the S&P 500 slipped 0.02%, the Nasdaq gained 0.01% and the Dow Jones declined 0.3%.

Bitcoin holds near US$84,000

Bitcoin traded around US$84,350, virtually unchanged after recent volatility.

Its limited movement contrasted with the sharper losses in Australian small caps. Elevated bond yields and a firm US dollar remained part of the broader backdrop for risk assets, but the cryptocurrency’s price alone offered no clear signal about the direction of the afternoon equity session.

London faces a cautious opening

The FTSE 100 closed Thursday down 0.24% at 10,679.99. Smaller UK companies recorded larger losses, with the FTSE 250 falling approximately 0.9% and the AIM All-Share declining 1.1%.

Early December FTSE 100 futures were around 10,757.6, down approximately 0.07%. That futures level relates to the December contract and is separate from the cash index.

UK consumer confidence offered a modestly positive economic signal. GfK’s September reading improved to −13 from −14, beating economists’ expectations of −16 and reaching its highest level since August 2024. Confidence nevertheless remained negative.

What to watch tonight

Two scheduled US releases will provide further evidence on economic activity and household sentiment:

• August durable-goods orders: 1.30pm BST, or 10.30pm AEST on Friday.

• Final September University of Michigan consumer sentiment: 3pm BST, or midnight AEST entering Saturday.

Investors will watch both the headline results and inflation expectations, with the Treasury market’s response likely to influence the next direction for equities.

Samso Concluding Comments

The most significant feature of Friday’s session is the widening performance gap between small companies and the large-cap benchmark.

Consumer staples and selected gold producers attracted support, but that buying did not extend across the market. The pattern is consistent with greater caution, although company announcements, liquidity and trading volumes remain important when assessing individual moves.

Into the close, the immediate question is whether small caps can recover from their lows or finish the week carrying the larger share of the market’s losses.

Samso Pre-market update Friday, September 25, 2026 | 9: 00 am AEST

Australian shares are poised to open lower on Friday after renewed Middle East attacks drove oil prices higher, intensifying inflation concerns and adding pressure to global bond markets.

SPI indicators pointed to a decline of approximately 32 points, or 0.4%, following Thursday’s 0.72% fall in the S&P/ASX 200. Early futures trading also indicated a weaker opening, according to Stockhead’s morning report.

Energy producers face a stronger commodity backdrop after Brent crude settled above US$106 a barrel. For the broader market, however, rising fuel costs and bond yields present renewed challenges.

ASX today: Key Highlights

• ASX Today: ASX futures indicate a decline of approximately 0.4%.

• Brent crude settles at US$106.60, up 3.4% after fresh attacks on Saudi Arabia.

• US 10-year Treasury yields rise towards 5.21%, maintaining pressure on equity valuations.

• Small Ordinaries closes Thursday at 3,401.70, down 0.62%.

• US durable-goods orders and consumer sentiment are due tonight, ahead of next week’s RBA decision.

Materials and property weigh on the Australian market

The S&P/ASX 200 lost 63.30 points to 8,702.00 on Thursday. The All Ordinaries declined 59.20 points, or 0.66%, to 8,897.00.

Energy gained more than 1%, while materials and real estate were among the largest drags. BHP faced weaker copper prices and the suspension of operations at its Escondida mine in Chile following a fatal accident.

The Small Ordinaries fell 21.20 points, or 0.62%, to 3,401.70, recovering from an intraday low of 3,371.40. It modestly outperformed the larger benchmarks but still participated in the broader decline.

Employment grows, but unemployment reaches 4.6%

Thursday’s labour force report showed Australian employment increasing by 39,500 in August, while unemployment reached 4.6%.

Part-time employment increased by 45,800, while full-time employment declined by 6,300. Participation rose from 66.9% to 67.1%, and the number of unemployed people increased by 28,200. Hours worked also rose.

The combination points to a mixed labour market: employment expanded, but the workforce grew faster than the number of jobs.

The report did not materially reduce expectations of further monetary tightening. LSEG pricing cited by ABC on Thursday afternoon implied a 96.5% probability of a rate increase next week.

The RBA cash rate remains 4.35%, with its next decision scheduled for September 29. A 25-basis-point increase would take the rate to 4.60%.

Wall Street finishes little changed

US equities ended a volatile Thursday session with limited movement in the major benchmarks.

The S&P 500 slipped 1.90 points to 7,704.13. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 161.61 points, or 0.3%, to 51,349.98, while the Nasdaq Composite edged 3.34 points higher to 26,939.37.

The US 10-year Treasury yield rose approximately nine basis points to 5.21%, while the two-year yield climbed four basis points to 4.93%. The 30-year yield briefly reached its highest level in more than two decades.

Renewed inflation concerns, Federal Reserve commentary and fewer applications for unemployment benefits reinforced expectations of further tightening.

Nvidia slipped 0.4%. Stitch Fix fell 21.6% after cautious guidance overshadowed better-than-expected quarterly results.

Houthi attacks revive oil-supply concerns

Brent crude rose 3.4% to settle at US$106.60 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate gained 2.7% to US$94.61. Both contracts rose approximately 5% at their session highs before easing.

Saudi Arabia said it intercepted six ballistic missiles launched by Yemen’s Houthi movement. The Saudi-led coalition said the missiles targeted Taif and the Yanbu area on the Red Sea.

Reports of US–Iran discussions about reopening the Strait of Hormuz helped prices retreat from their peaks, but supply concerns remained prominent.

For Australian investors, higher crude prices may support producers while increasing costs for airlines, transport operators and other fuel-intensive businesses.

European markets decline; Asia finishes mixed

European equities weakened as rising oil prices and government bond yields weighed on sentiment.

The FTSEurofirst 300 fell approximately 0.5%, while Germany’s DAX declined around 0.6%. Britain’s FTSE 100 lost 0.24% to 10,679.99.

In Asia’s Thursday session, China’s Shanghai Composite fell 1.2%, while Japan’s Nikkei gained approximately 0.8%.

Currencies, commodities and Bitcoin

The Australian dollar eased approximately 0.3% to US70.16 cents. The euro slipped to US$1.1377, while the yen weakened to 158.88 per US dollar.

Commodity movements were mixed:

• Copper futures: Up 0.6%, with Chilean supply concerns providing support.

• Aluminium: Down 0.2%.

• Gold futures: Down 0.5% to approximately US$4,298 an ounce.

• Iron ore: Down 0.1% to US$97.14 a tonne.

Bitcoin traded near US$84,325, little changed after briefly falling below US$83,000.

What to watch on the ASX today

Oil prices and long-term bond yields remain the immediate overseas influences, while local investors continue positioning for Tuesday’s RBA decision.

In the United States, August durable-goods orders are scheduled for Friday.

The final September University of Michigan consumer-sentiment survey follows at 10am US Eastern time. Its preliminary sentiment reading was 47.8, down from 51.7 in August, making the final assessment of household confidence and inflation expectations particularly relevant.

Samso Concluding Comments

The overnight session highlights the competing effects of higher oil prices. Producers may benefit, but sustained increases in fuel costs complicate the inflation outlook and can keep pressure on interest rates.

Thursday’s modest small-cap outperformance should also be kept in perspective: the Small Ordinaries declined alongside the broader market.

For Friday, the useful test is whether support for energy can extend to other sectors. Without a retreat in bond yields, property, technology and companies dependent on external funding may continue to face difficult conditions.