Standing looking at the drilling and mineralisation trends of the Lake Austin Gold Project, I was trying to remember what is so familiar about this place. I kept looking for something familiar, and I can see the words, Lena Shear, but I kept thinking I know this place. I was intrigued by this Lake Austin Gold Project. The fundamentals have indeed perked my curiosity. I started talking to management to learn the story. I told them that I know the Tuckabianna project and I had walked all around the project in another career path. This Lake Austin Gold Project seems to remind me of something south-east of Cue or south-east of Mount Magnet. The Lake Austin Gold Project are all within a 30km radius from the township of Cue. The mining town of Cue is about 650km north-northeast from Perth, Western Australia (Figure 2). As many would know, Cue is no stranger to mining. This Murchison region is one of the most endowed goldfields in Western Australia with gold mines producing in multiple of millions of ounces. The mining centre of Mount Magnet, Cue and Meekatharra has been active for decades, especially in the 1990s. I was informed by “experts” that the gold nuggets you find in the Murchison are cleaner and purer, but I don’t know how much is myth or truth. In 2008, when I was making my first trip as Exploration Manager for Silverlake Resources Limited (ASX: SLR), I met a prospector who had these nuggets shown in Figure1. He told me the story about how Murchison gold is the best, and I guess it must be true. Don’t all prospectors know everything……… Musgrave Minerals Limited (ASX: MGV) I came to know about Musgrave Minerals when I attended a presentation in Perth organised by Cannings Purple several weeks ago. Hence when I participated at the RIU Conference in Sydney in May 2019, I was keen to catch up and get an update on the projects. After the initial presentation in Perth, I felt that this Lake Austin Gold Project had a lot of promise. These big intercepts were worthy of being a discovery. I don’t doubt that there is a big story here, but I was just conscious of the grades. They were not too shallow, also, which was my main concern. When I talked to Musgrave in more detail, I realised that although my initial concerns were valid, what I was learning is that we could be dealing with a much bigger system. The real light bulb moment for me is just a few days ago. I realised why this place was so familiar. This Break of Day project was the old Moyagee project from my days at Silverlake Resources. When I realised this and knowing the discovery to date, I was suddenly very optimistic about the project. So much so that I started doing some Samso style research. This also explained how Silverlake Resources became a significant shareholder. Close to Infrastructure In terms of logistics, the project is well within many operating mills (Figure 3). Hence, one can pretty much say that they would look at toll treatment when they get to a mining scenario. There are a lot of choices, and if they find more ore, I am sure the other mills will all be chasing them for business. However, drilling may later show the economics to build their mill closer to the action. According to the presentation given at the RIU conference in Sydney, the district has over 20M ounces of historical gold production. The primary gold system at Cue is over 28km in length/strike. The upsell of the Lake Austin Gold Project is the possibility that it could be a Great Fingall look-alike (Figure 4). I think they are probably not too far from that theory and creating a legacy of their own. One cannot have this amount of good results and not go down the road of production or at least produce an excellent resource scenario. Break of Day and Lena Gold Projects These are the Moyagee projects from Silverlake Resources, and it is good to see that the thinking from back then has been followed up. In my time there, we were going to drill that area, but circumstances prevented that from happening. The resource was already there, and I guess the drilling that Musgrave completed proved that the system was in place and there were more legs to the story. The new drilling proved that the mineralisation did indeed go more in-depth, but I don’t think this is going to make the custard. There is not enough width, and the grades are not spectacular (Figure 5). The numbers show some promise but I think there is just not enough work done and with the discovery of the Lake Austin Gold Project, I can’t see management diverting money to this project. As I mentioned, what this do show is that the system is mineralised and I think the potential of a separate “district” is very high. I do believe that the potential shown in Figure 4 is not a pipe dream. I remember when I was at Silverlake, I liked the Lena Shear system. I felt that it is consistent and the system had the potential to be part of a bigger, more endowed metallic system. I did think that the management at that time was more interested in Daisy Milano and rightly so as the mishap at the Lakewood mill nearly took them underwater six months form raising 30M from the IPO. I am glad that the recent drilling from Musgrave have shown that I was correct and the discovery of Lake Austin Gold Project in potentially the same system is even more exciting. This system may be sparked by the Break of Day/ Lena Shear System. Lake Austin Gold Project The Lake Austin Gold Project has all the hallmarks of a great future mining project. The recent drilling results have been pretty spectacular. The presentation slide (Figure 6) showing all the recent intercepts is fantastic and has some good length to the intercepts. They are very encouraging, and one would have good reasons to think that this could be early signs for duplicating the Great Fingall deposit. This potential that management is hoping for may not be all myth after all. Asking me would be biased as I am always an optimist and an exploration geologist. We still think there is a pot of gold at the end of every rainbow… eventually 🙂 Looking at the other announced results in Figure 7, it does give one a clearer understanding of the potential. The mineralisation of 242m @ 1g/t is fantastic, as there is a high grade of 45m @3.3g/t. As I have mentioned in previous articles, intercepts of 242m, 84m and 94m are lengths of drill intercepts that make mines. The grades may not be high enough to excite, but you have to understand the mix of high grade and lower grade components of the deposit. The challenge for the company will now be to drill this out and hope that they come up with a decent resource and reflecting a suitable grade. There does look like a consistent link to the trend heading in a northeastern orientation. I can’t help but think that the Lake Austin Gold Project is the confirmation from Break of Day and Lena. Subsequently, I feel that the Mainland project could be the confirmation from Lake Austin. All they need to do now is drill and drill and drill. When you look at the diagrams within Figure 6 and Figure 7, one can see the potential of a mineralised belt happening, This structural splay coming off that central north-south shear zone could be what the Musgrave needs to make their “Great Fingall” theory come alive. The Gravity data show observable targets and good correlation to the orientation of mineralisation and a structural corridor. Conclusion Musgrave Minerals has got themselves a project that continues to uncover more ounces. This project reminds me of the discovery that started from small intercept to one of the most well-known salt lakes. Lake Lefroy in the Kambalda area has one of the most metalliferous endowed salt lake systems. Figure 8 shows the discovery around Lake Lefroy over 40 years of activity. The development of Invincible was the latest, but that also took several years due mainly to not recognising the importance of early exploration results. The discovery of Invincible in 2012/2014 is active in my mind as that was a 1.3M ounce discovery in an area that you would have thought had been thoroughly drilled out. To me, Musgrave could be onto something that could make them a producer or a takeover target. Thick intercepts and decent grades are the right combinations of a good story that would attract corporate activities with the gold price continued rise up the charts. What could make this come a cropper would be running out of money. Musgrave has strong shareholders, Westgold is a major shareholder and they would be the first to benefit if Musgrave defines a workable resource as the nearest toll treating avenue is their Tuckabianna Mill. Apart from a lack of funding, I don’t think there is anything else that could make this a lemon. Even a chinaman geologist like me could make myself a hero from here…maybe… 🙂 Disclaimer The information or opinions provided herein do not constitute investment advice, an offer or solicitation to subscribe for, purchase or sell the investment product(s) mentioned herein. It does not take into consideration, nor have any regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation, risk profile, tax position and particular, or unique needs and constraints. Read full Disclaimer. www.samso.com.au If you find this article informative and useful, please help me share the information. I try and write about topics that are interesting and have the potential to be of investment value. It is not easy to find stories that fit those parameters. If you or your organisation see the benefit of what Samso is trying to achieve and have a need to share your journey, please contact me on noel.ong@samso.com.au. About Samso

Samso Insight Episode 98: A discussion why understanding mineral systems is important to exploration discovery The Discovery of Olympic Dam is the next Exploration Discovery story. The story is about the search for copper and is one of the longest searches for a commodity. In 1957, Western Mining Corporation Limited (ASX: WMC) initiated a search for Copper which started a sequence of events that led to the discovery of the largest known mineral deposit in 1976. It would take the company another two years before they understood the magnitude of their discovery. Olympic Dam was the third discovery by WMC in 10 years. The significance of the discovery is that it would be another twenty years before the next big deposit, Prominent Hill was to be discovered. Carrapateena which is the next major discovery in that area was only discovered in 2005 on the western edge of Lake Torrens and only 70km southeast of Olympic Dam. WMC was created in 1933 and was taken over by BHP in 2002. In 2009, Olympic Dam had a resource of 9.1BT of resource and it was 4.4 times bigger than the initial resource that WMC had announced. It was worth USD863B. In 2017, it was reported that there was 120MT of Cu eq (equivalent) and it would take 500 years to deplete the resource at that time. The Story of the Olympic Dam was documented in the book "The Olympic Dam Story" by David Upton. I was able to track down David and arranged to meet him to get his view of the discovery and to talk about his book on this episode of Samso Insights. I hope this episode brings out the essence of the hard work and perseverance of the WMC group to search and discover a once-in-a-lifetime deposit such as Olympic Dam. I am a big believer of mineral exploration. My thoughts are that the low hanging fruits of mineral discovery was a couple of decades ago. One of the key points to take from this conversation with David and from the book is that discoveries are made from understanding mineral systems. These mineral systems make or break the concept of discovery. In the book, the key aspect of the discovery was that WMC, with their incredible understanding of geoscience looked out for mineral systems that would host copper. The exploration strategy was to look for these systems that would be "cooking" and hence have the best chance of being mineralised. WMC had a theory that they need to look for a mineral system that had altered basalts. These altered basalts would be the deciding factor that brought about discovery. The giants to be found are all undercover or in areas that have been misunderstood or neglected such as Tropicana, Nova-Bollinger, Winu, Havieron, Julimar, and Fosterville, just to name a few. Check out David Upton's website : https://precompetitive-review.com/ Chapters: 00:00 Start 00:20 Introduction 01:36 How it started. 09:21 The journey to look for copper. 12:55 Communicating with shareholders. 15:57 The work culture in Western Mining. 19:35 The search for Mineral Systems. 24:05 Discussion of new technologies and ideas. 27:42 The need for interpretation of data. 30:14 The complexity of the Olympic Dam. 32:52 Political issues of Uranium. 35:06 What drives the exploration? 37:37 The drilling. 39:07 What is David Upton up to these days? 41:04 The vast amount information available. 42:46 Why read the The Olympic Story? 45:51 Summary of the Olympic Dam Story. 49:35 Conclusion PODCAST Discover more on our Exploration Discovery series. About David Upton Researcher and writer with a deep knowledge of the resources and energy industries. Geology graduate and author of the well-known mining and exploration history, The Olympic Dam Story. Publisher of Precompetitive-review.com, Australia's only single source of news and analysis on precompetitive geoscience for mineral exploration. Disclaimer The information or opinions provided herein do not constitute investment advice, an offer or solicitation to subscribe for, purchase or sell the investment product(s) mentioned herein. It does not take into consideration, nor have any regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation, risk profile, tax position and particular, or unique needs and constraints. Read full Disclaimer. Share to Grow: Your Bonus Samso has just released an eBook: How to Add Value to your Share Portfolio A lesson on geological models sought by mining companies that gives insight and an understanding of which portfolios are better - and potentially more lucrative – investments. Click here to download this eBook. If you find this article informative and useful, please help me share the information. I try and write about topics that are interesting and have the potential to be of investment value. It is not easy to find stories that fit those parameters. If you or your organisation see the benefit of what Samso is trying to achieve and have a need to share your journey, please contact me on noel.ong@samso.com.au. About Samso Samso ASX stories are also through the Brilliant-Online channels. Subscribe to Brilliant Investments. Read Brilliant Investments

Almost 25 years ago, I fell in love with the Fancy Yellow Diamond. A colleague introduced me to the hobby of selling diamonds in 1994, and I met some fascinating people in that part of my life. There was this dealer in Melbourne (who later past away with cancer), who was a nice person, introduced me to these fancy yellow stones and I have never forgotten them. As you can see in the picture above, what is there not to like. The colour is so enticing. My fascination or obsession with yellow diamonds is the colour, the intense and consistent colouring that creates beauty over a colourless stone. This fascination is more than cosmetic. It is the fact that in nature, the act of having inclusion of nitrogen in the crystal structure created what we would call a defect. A defect in the crystal structure that was so consistent that it created a work of such beauty. Some Samso fact on Diamonds? To understand a Yellow diamond, one needs to follow some minor things. Diamonds are not stable at normal temperature and pressures. Normal as in on your finger. On your finger, your diamond is technically turning to graphite/carbon. It will take a long time to do that, but what you are wearing is technically a defect item :-). There is no shortage of diamonds, but with a tight marketing system, prices are kept at enterprising values. This system is a win-win system. Natural diamonds come in all sort of shapes and sizes. They also come in different chemistry. Clear white stones are traditionally the most sought after diamonds (Figure 1). While there are differences in colour between D, E, and F diamonds, they can be detected only by a gemologist in side by side comparisons, and rarely by the untrained eye. Remember this statement when you go and buy your diamond cause while they look similar, the pricing from a D to an F is dramatically different. Most retail diamond “experts” will tell you that when buying a good diamond, the clarity (Figure 2) is essential. They are correct, but a stone that has an IF (Internally Flawless) Clarity with G Colour may be just as excellent but cheaper than a D and IF. Those that tell you that you should buy it for investment need their head examined. The only value diamond rings hold sentimental value. I am sure all jewellers out there will disagree with me, but unfortunately, that is the truth, and those people that have tried to sell their rings will attest to that statement. For me, the beauty of the stone, the setting and the story of the stone or the story of the occasion are what determines a buy. The photo of the ring below was purchased because it was a stone from Blina, a known diamond project that has ceased operation. In my opinion, that history of the stone set in a ring gives more added value that a stone that has no source history. Fancy Yellow Diamonds Yellow diamonds are deemed “fancy” when a stone displays more colour than the “Z” colour grade based on the GIA D-Z colour grade scale. Why? Because it makes more sense, and really, all diamonds should be graded for their face up colour. But it is much harder to do. It is when they are in the Fancy range where they gain their value. Fancy is the term that describes the intensity of the colour and the price for these stones will tend to rise rapidly. The Fancy Yellows are “rare”, and consistent Fancy colour is hard to find. I mean a naturally sourced stone. Yellow diamonds are the second most common colour after brown diamonds. Argyle Diamond Mine was the first to market the brown diamonds as Cognac and Champagne diamonds. This marketing strategy was very effective in that it created the market for unwanted brown diamonds or non-gem quality stones. When I see some of these stones, they are bringing a new perspective to the market that is just traditionally one type, one colour and one style of appreciation. The Fancy Yellow diamond marketability is strong. When Tiffany, the jeweller, did an off-take with Ellendale Diamond Mine (not closed), they were reported to have paid up to $3,000 per carat for the fancy yellows coming out from the mine. That is an indication of the demand for these stones. Stones such as the one described below, the 34.17-carat yellow diamond, that is sourced from the Yakutia Region of Siberia, Russia, would have been worth a lot of money. Where do we find these Yellow diamonds? As we mentioned earlier, yellows are not rare. They are plentiful. I wished I had taken a photographed the stones that were shown to me by the dealer in Melbourne in the mid-1990s. The internet tells me that yellow diamonds are found primarily in Africa, including Angola, Central Africa, Congo, and Sierra Leone, but has also been discovered in Brazil, Australia, and Borneo. The Ellendale mine when it was operating supplied nearly 50% of the world supply. The mine is no longer in operation. My interest lies in the existing sources that are in Australia. The Blina project and potentially looking at the Ellendale alluvials and pipes is exciting. Companies such as Gibb River Diamonds (ASX: GIB) are active, but they are struggling to find funding. The theory sounds great, and if proven to be accurate, you are going to see some exceptional stones. A consistent supply of these yellow stones would be a valuable asset. The old saying of One in a million, well finding a source of quality yellow stones in Australia would be one in a million. There have been several companies in the last eight years that are floating in the space of chasing the Ellendale and Blina alluvials. I have not heard much about them. However, I did recently hear that some private company has picked up the Smoke Creek Alluvials. I looked at buying that project from the vendors three to four years ago. The Smoke Creek alluvials have a resource, and this project holds some potential bonuses. The likely discovery of the Argyl pink diamonds. I am sure that within the package od stones, there will be an abundant amount of browns as well. In all the potentials out there, I am most optimistic with those that are trying to develop projects within the Ellendale and Blina diamond projects. These are where the potential for discovering Fancy Yellows are the greatest and has the most history. As they say, where there is smoke, there must be a fire. At least a fire that potentially can be started. Disclaimer The information or opinions provided herein do not constitute investment advice, an offer or solicitation to subscribe for, purchase or sell the investment product(s) mentioned herein. It does not take into consideration, nor have any regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation, risk profile, tax position and particular, or unique needs and constraints. Read full Disclaimer. www.samso.com.au If you find this article informative and useful, please help me share the information. I try and write about topics that are interesting and have the potential to be of investment value. It is not easy to find stories that fit those parameters. If you or your organisation see the benefit of what Samso is trying to achieve and have a need to share your journey, please contact me on noel.ong@samso.com.au. About Samso

This REE (Rare Earth Elements) industry that has been making more noise in the last few weeks is a bit of a mystery to most people. The recent US-China trade war sparked the latest resurgence in pricing. Before this event, the REE industry outside of China was pretty much a non-event. The most promising story in town, which was that of Arafura Resources was almost a sunset industry. In a matter of a few words from the Chinese government, the diminishing light at the end of the tunnel suddenly became a bright light of sunshine. I must admit that I have not been a fan of this sector because you are entirely at the mercy of the most significant player in town, The Chinese Panda. Cute as he may be, but when he sits on you, you are not getting up. In saying that, I do feel that the complete dominance of this sector by China does open up opportunities of being the one of few that the rest of the world will support. The REE sector is very tight, and those that have been in the game the longest will surely benefit the most. A few searches on the internet and you will learn quickly about the dominance of China in this sector. Now that there is more excitement happening, there are some players that may well take full advantage of the uncertainty because of this tug of war between the US and China. What is Fueling this REE sector? One of the biggest and if not most significant uses of REE is in the permanent magnet industry. According to a site called, Tech-FAQ, a permanent magnet (ferromagnet) is a material that produces a magnetic field. Permanent magnets are made from ferromagnetic materials, such as iron. They are created when the material is placed inside a magnetic field. When the magnetic field is removed, the object remains magnetised. Permanent magnets have a continuous magnetic field and do not turn on and off as electromagnets do. Permanent magnets are the oldest type and are still used for a wide variety of applications today. These magnets have electrons moving in the same direction, and as more electrons align themselves, the magnetic field increases and become stronger. Standard magnets have electrons moving in a random manner. This is as simple an explanation that I can come up with to explain the phenomenon of permanent magnets. If you are still wondering why they are so important, think about power generation and electric motors. The induction process for turbines and generators needs permanent magnets to turn mechanical motion into energy. They are also crucial for electric motors in many electronics using the reverse of the induction of electrical current to make mechanical energy. As you can see without the permanent magnet, we would not be able to take full advantage of the capabilities of electricity in modern devices. In our time of EV (Electric Vehicles), these little “slippery critters” are critical. Currently, the whole EV story needs permanent magnets. Which ASX companies are involved? As I mentioned, I have not followed this sector in great detail, and I have just included the companies that I am familiar with for the moment. I have chosen the better-known companies. Lynas Corporation and Arafura Resources have been singing this song for a long time. Hastings Technology was a bit later in the game. The others I have just noticed and I have put them in my list to get some context. I learnt about Greenland Minerals a while ago and it is a fascinating company. Alkane Resources is a gold miner with a polymetallic REE project in NSW. In this instance, Alkane Resources will probably never make a play for this sector. I can’t see that happening but they could get value from teh project if they were to JV it to a willing participant. Northern Minerals and Peak are pretty much unknown entities to me but I wanted to include them as they may be positioned in this sector better than I know. Lynas Corporation Limited (ASX: LYC) Market Capitalisation: AUD 1.5B Shares Outstanding: 662.50M Top 20 shareholders: 70.20% (2019) Arafura Resources Limited ( ASX: ARU) Market Capitalisation: AUD 51M Shares Outstanding: 639.90M Top 20 shareholders: 54.60% (2019) Hastings Technology Metals Limited (ASX: HAS) Market Capitalisation: AUD 160M Shares Outstanding: 711.50M Top 20 shareholders: 84.10% (2019) Northern Minerals (ASX: NTU) Market Capitalisation: AUD 100M Shares Outstanding: 1.15B Top 20 shareholders: 55.40% (2019) Alkane Resources Limited (ASX: ALK) Market Capitalisation: AUD 116M Shares Outstanding: 506.10M Top 20 shareholders: 51.50% (2019) Peak Resources Limited (ASX: PEK) Market Capitalisation: AUD 29M Shares Outstanding: 799.20M Top 20 shareholders: 42.60% (2019) Greenland Minerals Limited (ASX: GGG) Market Capitalisation: AUD 79M Shares Outstanding: 1.1B Top 20 shareholders: 62.70% (2019) My Thoughts. I am familiar with Arafura Resources and Hastings only because I had to deal with the company in the past. In 2015, while I was evaluating a project in the Gascoyne, I was put on notice that Hastings was doing a lot of drilling around an REE project. This went on for a while, and when I read their story now, they are well advanced. It is good to see that the company had the perseverance to hang around and had continued to do work on the ground. I am sure they are all pleased to know that their time for picking the fruits may be close. For Hastings, I am surprised to see that the Top 20 shareholding is so high at 84.10%. I am guessing that in the bad times, those shareholders that put in money would have been rewarded with cheaper shares. Looking at their market capitalisation of 160M, the company does not appear to be overly expensive. With the sector experiencing some buoyancy, I think this may be an exciting company. However, I think Arafura is looking more interesting from a market capitalisation point of view. A market capitalisation of AUD51M is not very high. I have seen some exploration companies with that kind of capitalisation and has nothing to show for it :-). The share register appears to be more liquid and for a company with the Nolans project at the stage that it seems to be relatively cheap. Greenland Minerals have an enormous project in Greenland. So big that it will tip the scale of world REE monopoly. For once, I will agree that this is a world-class deposit. However, on the other side of the waterway, there is also another project that is held privately, which is a world-class deposit. How this pans out in the future, I am not sure. There is no doubt that the projects are “gianormous proportions”, but I am not sure if they will take off. Greenland Minerals have been playing here for a long time, and they don’t seem to be moving fast. One will need to ask why is that so? I won’t comment on the other companies as I am not too intimate with their journey. I am sure readers will DYOR for now. I think this sector will be exciting, going forward. Looking at the history of the industry, the recent brush with “death” may likely be a thing of the past. The US-China trade war and the Chinese reaction may be sufficient for the industry to make sure they will not be hostage to one supplier. This can be the same as the cobalt industry where the majority is coming out of the Congo. I do believe that the REE sector may have learnt a valuable lesson where the guarantee of supply must be protected. Hence, those that can get to production quickly may become part of the protected species. Disclaimer The information or opinions provided herein do not constitute investment advice, an offer or solicitation to subscribe for, purchase or sell the investment product(s) mentioned herein. It does not take into consideration, nor have any regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation, risk profile, tax position and particular, or unique needs and constraints. Read full Disclaimer. www.samso.com.au If you find this article informative and useful, please help me share the information. I try and write about topics that are interesting and have the potential to be of investment value. It is not easy to find stories that fit those parameters. If you or your organisation see the benefit of what Samso is trying to achieve and have a need to share your journey, please contact me on noel.ong@samso.com.au. About Samso

Abstract AML3D Limited makes solid metal components on a welding robot it calls ARCEMY, laying down one weld bead on top of another until the part exists. Its largest customer is the United States Navy and the parts go into submarines. This is the first Samso Research Workup on a company that does not dig anything up. The analysis behind it was done by a panel of five specialists assembled for advanced manufacturing and the defence industrial base, in place of the four mining practitioners this product normally uses. The operating story turned in FY2026. Revenue was A$12.5 million, up 70 per cent, and the second half produced earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation of a positive A$608,000. That is the first EBITDA-positive half in the company's history. The loss after tax narrowed 38 per cent to A$4.48 million. AML3D has not raised equity since November 2024 and held A$26.67 million in cash at 30 June 2026. Over roughly the same twelve months the shares fell about 46 per cent, to A$0.150 on 21 September 2026. The gap between those two facts is what this workup examines. Samso's view is that the business has not deteriorated. What has happened is that the company's disclosures do not yet answer a set of questions. AML3D does not report feedstock revenue and does not report utilisation of its installed base. A machine business whose customers come back is a different company from one whose customers do not, and on the evidence available two customers have come back. Two constraints deserve to be read before any of the growth figures. Every US Navy parts contract AML3D announced up to March 2026 was for components the company itself described as non-safety-critical, which is obsolescence and supply-chain gap filling rather than pressure-boundary work. And the same programme office that funds AML3D funded Lincoln Electric, a very much larger welding company, for the same purpose in September 2025. Neither point is fatal, and both change what the story is. One of those two moved on 17 September 2026. AML3D announced a A$0.5 million order from Austal USA Advanced Technologies for three large, high-pressure copper-nickel fluid control components for US Navy nuclear submarines, and said the order converts a copper-nickel qualification programme into production part manufacturing. It is the first production parts order the company has announced in that alloy. It is also the first submarine parts release that does not carry the non-safety-critical qualifier, and AML3D has not said why. Section 6 sets out both. The balance sheet is comfortable and has been committed. A$26.67 million funds either a long runway or the announced A$17 million expansion of US and European capacity, and it does not obviously fund both plus a weak year. AML3D enters FY2027 with A$16.8 million of contracted orders against A$9 million a year earlier, which is the strongest number in the outlook and is a real one. The company has issued no numerical FY2027 revenue guidance and never has. The Samso Call is Watch and DYOR. FY2027 is a year of checkable events with dates on them. The A$16.8 million has to be delivered, the Ohio expansion has to be built, four ARCEMY X systems have to be commissioned at Newport News Shipbuilding in the March 2027 quarter, and the three copper-nickel components have to be delivered and commissioned by the end of that same quarter. Contents 1 Why This Company Warrants A Full Workup 10 The Register 2 What AML3D Actually Does 11 The People 3 What ARCEMY Can And Cannot Make 12 Peer Comparison 4 The Problem AML3D Is Selling Into 13 The Competition 5 The Contract Record, 2023 To 2026 14 What Has To Go Right, And What Could Go Wrong 6 What “Qualified” Actually Means Here 15 Samso Concluding Comments 7 The FY2026 Result 16 References and Sources 8 Cash, Capital Commitments And Dilution 17 Disclaimer 9 The Order Book Nearly Doubled, And How It Converts Snapshot Prices below are as at the date in the meta line above, the point this workup was compiled from. This is a living document: the share price and market cap will have moved, up or down, in the time since (check a live quote before acting on anything here, and see the note on data currency in the disclaimer). Metric Value Share price A$0.150 (ASX, 21 September 2026, unchanged on the day) Market capitalisation approximately A$85.1 million, Samso's own multiplication of price by shares on issue Shares on issue 567,445,783 (30 June 2026) Unquoted options 45,070,383, held by eight holders Cash A$26,670,484 (30 June 2026) FY2026 revenue A$12.5 million, up 70 per cent FY2026 result loss after tax A$4,482,811. H2 EBITDA positive A$608,000 Contracted orders into FY2027 A$16.8 million at 30 June 2026 (A$9 million a year earlier), plus a A$0.5 million parts order signed 17 September 2026 Sales pipeline A$78 million, company estimate, not contracted Revenue guidance none issued Product ARCEMY wire arc additive manufacturing systems, and printed parts Principal customer US Navy Maritime Industrial Base, contracted through BlueForge Alliance ARCEMY systems in the US Navy supply chain 16 deployed on the company's 17 September 2026 count, against 14 contracted on its 31 August 2026 count 52-week range A$0.090 to A$0.290 Samso Call Watch and DYOR Substantial holders (AML3D 2026 Annual Report, register as at 24 August 2026): Netwealth Investments Limited (Wrap Services A/C) 35,716,514 shares, 6.29 per cent. That is the only substantial holding disclosed. The twenty largest holders together hold 178,210,262 shares, 31.41 per cent, and most of the top ten lines are platform and custodian nominees rather than beneficial owners. There were 6,500 holders in total, of whom 1,605 held less than a marketable parcel. Share price context: AL3 closed at A$0.150 on 21 September 2026, unchanged on the day, against a 52-week range of A$0.090 to A$0.290. The shares are down about 46 per cent over the twelve months to that date. The twelve-month base sits close to the stock's high for the period, so the figure overstates the fall. Measured from the end of September 2025 it is about 41 per cent. Over three years the shares are up and over five years they are down, and the shape across the three periods matters more than any one of them. AML3D has never paid a dividend, so total shareholder return equals price return. Coverage is thin. Two boutique brokers publish on the stock, and Samso found no note from either published after the order announced on 17 September 2026, on the searches it ran to 21 September 2026. Two highs appear in this workup on different bases. A$0.275 was the highest monthly close in the series behind Figure 1, and A$0.290 is the 52-week intraday high the ASX publishes at the data date. The A$0.29 daily close of 17 September 2025 has now passed out of the 52-week window. 1 Why This Company Warrants A Full Workup AML3D Limited builds metal parts by welding them into existence, one bead at a time. Its customer of consequence is the United States Navy, and the parts are for submarines. That sentence is the reason this workup exists. Almost every company Samso writes about is looking for something in the ground. AML3D makes things instead. It is a manufacturer, listed on the ASX, with a market capitalisation of about A$85 million, selling machines and components into the United States submarine construction programme, which the FY2027 US budget request funds at US$13.99 billion for the Virginia-class line alone. It is the first Samso Research Workup on a company of this kind, and the analysis behind it was done by a panel of five specialists assembled for the sector rather than by the four mining practitioners this product normally uses. Three things make it worth the length. The first is that the company reported its first EBITDA-positive half in the six months to 30 June 2026. EBITDA is earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation, a measure of operating performance that excludes financing costs and the accounting cost of assets as they are used up. It came in at a positive A$608,000 for that half.[R1] Full-year revenue was A$12.5 million, up 70 per cent. For a company that recorded revenue of A$634,422 in FY2023, that is a change of state, and it happened without a capital raising since November 2024. The second is that the share price has gone the other way. AL3 closed at A$0.150 on 21 September 2026, unchanged on the day.[R2] Over twelve months that is a fall of about 46 per cent. The comparison is unkind by accident, because the stock was running through September 2025 and reached its closing high of A$0.29 on 17 September that year. Measured from the end of September 2025 the fall is about 41 per cent. Either way the company delivered its best year and its shares fell, and that gap between operating performance and share price is the situation a workup is for. Figure 1. AML3D monthly closing share price, January 2023 to 21 September 2026, with six announcements marked. The company reported its best operating year in the twelve months to June 2026, and over the twelve months to 21 September 2026 the shares fell about 46 per cent, to A$0.150. The last three points are the 16, 18 and 21 September closes rather than month ends, because September 2026 had not closed when this was drawn. Source: Samso, built from AL3 closing prices retrieved 21 September 2026 and announcement dates from AML3D company releases. The third is that the whole thesis rests on one customer relationship, in one country, funded by one government programme, for a class of part AML3D had until recently described as non-safety-critical. Each of those clauses is a real constraint. The last of them moved on 17 September 2026, when the company announced its first production parts order in copper-nickel, and section 6 sets out both what changed and the fact that the release, unlike every earlier parts announcement, does not describe the components as non-safety-critical and does not say why.[R3] This workup does not tell anyone what to do with the shares. It sets out what AML3D makes, who buys it, what has actually been contracted as against what has been forecast, what the accounts say, and what would have to hold for the story to keep working. It is a living document. It was built on 9 September 2026, updated on 19 September 2026 to carry the production parts order announced two days earlier, and refreshed before release. Company data runs to 17 September 2026 and market data to the close of 21 September 2026, which are the two dates in the line under the title. What this workup does not attempt There is no valuation here and no price target. Samso does not publish them. There is also no estimate of AML3D's addressable market, and that omission is deliberate. The arithmetic is available and tempting. The US Navy has forecast a need for up to 100 additive manufacturing systems, AML3D has disclosed prices for systems it has sold, and multiplying the two takes ten seconds. It would also be a revenue forecast invented by Samso and presented in a document readers treat as research. Section 5 gives the customer's forecast and the company's disclosed contract values as two separate published facts, and stops there. 2 What AML3D Actually Does AML3D's product is a machine called ARCEMY, and a service that uses the same machines to print parts to order. The process is wire arc additive manufacturing, shortened in the industry to WAAM. AML3D trademarks its version as WAM, for Wire Additive Manufacturing. In plain terms it is an industrial welding robot that has been taught to build a solid object rather than join two objects together. A spool of certified welding wire feeds into an electric arc, the arc melts the wire, and the molten metal is laid down on a base plate. The robot moves, lays the next bead beside or on top of the last, and repeats. After enough passes there is a metal part where there was nothing. In the company's words, "the certified wire feedstock is melted by an electric arc, and the molten metal is deposited onto a substrate, layer by layer to create a three-dimensional part". The formal classification is direct energy deposition, arc, usually written DED-arc.[R4] Why ARCEMY has no chamber Most metal 3D printing happens inside a sealed chamber. Powder bed fusion, the process most people picture when they hear metal 3D printing, spreads a thin layer of metal powder inside a box and melts it with a laser. The box works. It also sets a hard ceiling on how big the part can be. ARCEMY has no chamber. It uses shielding gas delivered at the torch itself, which protects the weld pool from the air without needing to enclose the whole machine. AML3D states that this "localised gas shielding eliminates the need for an enclosed chamber, unlocking the potential for larger component build sizes". Local shielding works well for steels, copper alloys and nickel alloys. Reactive metals are a harder case. Titanium keeps absorbing oxygen and nitrogen from the air well below its melting point, and it embrittles when it does, so depositing it usually needs trailing shields or a local shielding tent rather than the torch alone. AML3D lists titanium among its feedstocks and has not published how it shields it. That single decision is the basis of the company's commercial position. It is why AML3D talks about propeller components and pressure spools rather than turbine blades and dental implants. It is also why the parts come out rough, which section 3 deals with. The four steps of a print AML3D's workflow runs through three pieces of its software and then the hardware. WAMSoft. The company describes it as "the first software package used in AML3D's WAM workflow. It turns a computer aided design (CAD) model into a path plan that the ARCEMY welding torch will follow." AMLSoft. "The ARCEMY operating system that uses the WAMSoft path plan to metal 3D print parts. AMLSoft provides real-time feedback and displays all measurable parameters during the metal 3D printing process." AMLRapid. It "translates AMLSoft instructions into the specific commands that control the robot, welder, lights, and all other peripherals that are integrated into an ARCEMY Wire Additive Manufacturing system." The deposition. An ABB robot arm carrying a Fronius welding package, running as an eight-axis system. Six axes are the arm itself.[R5] The other two are a positioner that tilts and rotates the part underneath the torch, so the robot can always weld into a convenient orientation. Sensors watch the build as it happens. A laser profile sensor measures the bead geometry. An infrared pyrometer, a non-contact thermometer, reads the temperature of the metal between passes. A dynamic cooler adjusts to keep that temperature in range. Temperature control is the hard part of the process. Every new bead re-melts and re-heats the metal beneath it. Deposit too hot and the wall slumps and the grain structure coarsens. Deposit too cold and you get poor fusion between beads and voids. Managing that thermal cycle is the technology. It is also the difference between a part that will survive a surveyor's inspection and an expensive lump of metal. Machining after the print Cost and risk sit in what happens after the robot stops. WAAM is a near-net-shape process. The part comes out approximately the right shape and then has to be machined. The foundational academic paper on the process puts numbers on it. That paper is Williams, S. W., Martina, F., Addison, A. C., Ding, J., Pardal, G. and Colegrove, P., "Wire + Arc Additive Manufacturing", Materials Science and Technology, 2016, volume 32, number 7, pages 641 to 647.[R6] Layer height is normally 1 mm to 2 mm, and the paper reports a surface waviness of roughly 500 micrometres for single track deposits. Waviness is the peak-to-valley variation left by the deposition itself rather than a fine surface texture. Half a millimetre of texture is far coarser than any bearing, sealing or mating face can tolerate, so it is the machining allowance that has to be cut off every functional face. A WAAM part is priced with a machining operation attached. The same paper measured peak longitudinal residual stress in steel WAAM at about 600 megapascals, written MPa. Residual stress is force locked inside the metal by the heating and cooling cycle, and it can bow a part off its base plate or shorten its fatigue life. Rolling the surface between passes brought that figure down to about 250 MPa in the Cranfield work. AML3D markets "minimal stress/distortion" as an attribute of WAM but publishes no stress data of its own, so that claim sits as marketing rather than evidence. Heat treatment is standard practice for these alloys, to even out the microstructure and relieve stress. AML3D does not publish its heat treatment routes. Nor does it publish as-printed surface figures, residual stress magnitudes, or its non-destructive testing protocols. Non-destructive testing is inspection that does not damage the part, usually X-ray or ultrasound, and for a pressure-boundary or safety-critical component it has to be done to a defined acceptance standard. A wire arc deposit's rough as-built surface makes ultrasonic inspection difficult until the surface has been machined, so the inspection plan and the machining plan are tied together. That is the practical mechanism behind the phrase non-safety-critical, which section 6 takes up. AML3D's commercial answer on quality is accreditation rather than per-part disclosure. 3 What ARCEMY Can And Cannot Make AML3D sells four baseline ARCEMY editions, described as fully customisable. The numbers that appear in announcements, 2600 and 6700, are the ABB robot arm models inside them rather than product names. AML3D's announcements use "ARCEMY X 6700" for the flagship, and its product page lists the 6700-series arm for that edition. The systems actually sold to the US Navy's shipbuilders are larger than anything on that list. The four ARCEMY X systems ordered by Huntington Ingalls Industries Newport News Shipbuilding in March 2026 are described by AML3D as "custom systems based on the large scale ARCEMY X 6700 but using a ~11,000 kg positioner to create a heavy capacity build capability".[R8] Two systems already commissioned at the same yard use a 10,886 kg positioner, which is the same 24,000-pound rating rounded a different way. Either figure is about four times the catalogue X Edition's 2,700 kg rating. The biggest machines AML3D sells are bespoke, not off the price list. Minimum print size Every commercial ARCEMY has a stated minimum safe print footprint 0.5 m wide by 0.5 m long. That is a machine constraint the company states rather than something inferred here. It is not strictly a minimum part size, because several small parts can share one substrate, but it tells a reader what the machine was designed around. The reason the economics work that way is worth spelling out. For a small precision component, machining from a solid block is cheap and the waste is trivial. For a large one, waste dominates. The Cranfield work reports aerospace buy-to-fly ratios of 10 to 20 when machining from solid, against about 1.2 for WAAM titanium spars and landing gear. Buy-to-fly is the mass of metal bought divided by the mass that ends up in the finished part. Buying twenty kilograms to fly one is normal in aerospace machining and is a large number when the metal is titanium. AML3D claims up to 80 per cent savings in material waste against cast and forged methods. The same logic runs the other way on surface finish. Machining 500 micrometres off every face is a rounding error on a 1.5 m pressure spool and a total loss on a 30 mm fitting. The alloys Because the feedstock is ordinary certified welding wire, the material range is wide. AML3D publishes the following. Aluminium alloys 2319, 4043, 5183, 5183 with scandium, and 5356. Nickel aluminium bronze, and copper-nickel 70/30 and 90/10. INVAR, and Inconel 622, 625 and 718. Duplex 2209, super duplex 2594, and stainless 304, 310, 316LSi, 410 and 420. Carbon steels ER70S-6 to ER120. Titanium Ti-6Al-4V and commercially pure titanium. The company says it has tested and printed with close to 30 feedstocks. The marine alloys in that list show what the product was built for. Nickel aluminium bronze is what propellers and seawater valves are made from. Copper-nickel 70/30 and 90/10 are seawater piping alloys. Super duplex 2594 is high-pressure seawater service. This is a product for navies and offshore work rather than for aerospace structures. What ARCEMY cannot do Six limits, each of them stated by the company or measured in the literature rather than inferred here. It cannot make fine-featured parts. The 1 mm to 2 mm layer height and the bead width of an arc process rule them out. It cannot deliver a finished surface. Machining is required on every functional face. It cannot yet make safety-critical US Navy submarine components. AML3D's contract language is "non-safety critical", and section 6 deals with what that means. It cannot achieve the geometric complexity of powder bed fusion. Internal lattices, fine cooling channels and thin walls are outside the resolution of an arc process. The material has to be weldable in wire form. No ceramics, no non-weldable alloys, no metal matrix composites off the shelf. Reactive metals are not simply a matter of having a compatible wire, for the shielding reason set out in section 2. One number AML3D does not publish is a deposition rate, in kilograms per hour, for any ARCEMY edition. It does not appear on any product page, in the February 2026 presentation or in the FY2025 Annual Report. The company does market a claim that WAM makes parts "up to 75% faster, 30% stronger and 50% more resistant to metal fatigue, compared to traditional manufacturing". That sentence mixes a lead-time comparison with two mechanical property claims. The property claims carry no stated alloy, no comparison baseline, no test orientation and no test standard, and Samso could locate no published dataset behind any of the three. The absence is not neutral, because deposition rate is a known constraint the company is spending money on. The FY2025 Annual Report describes a A$2.24 million project called ARCEMY Increase Deposition Rates, supported by a A$1.12 million grant from South Australia's Economic Recovery Fund, whose end point is a multi-robot, twin wire ARCEMY system. Research and development spending rose 83 per cent to A$1.07 million in FY2025, focused on that programme, which the company expects to finalise in FY2027.[R7] For a general benchmark rather than an AML3D figure, the Cranfield paper reports WAAM deposition rates of 1 kg to 4 kg per hour depending on material, and notes that higher rates compromise fidelity. 4 The Problem AML3D Is Selling Into The United States Navy cannot build submarines fast enough, and one of the reasons is that it cannot get the metal parts. The Congressional Research Service, reporting to Congress in January 2026, sets out the shape of it. The Navy has procured 41 Virginia-class attack submarines through FY2025 and funds two per year. Actual deliveries have run at about 1.1 to 1.2 boats per year since 2022, against a target of two and then 2.33. Procurement cost is about US$5.0 billion per boat under the FY2026 budget submission.[R9] The gap between two funded and 1.1 delivered is the market. Ken Jeanos, vice president of supply chain, materials and logistics at General Dynamics Electric Boat, put the cause plainly in the joint announcement of 30 September 2025 that section 13 returns to. "Material availability continues to drive construction delays across the submarine enterprise."[R10] The supplier base for large marine castings has thinned over decades, and some of the parts needed are for boats whose original manufacturer no longer supports them. Additive manufacturing is one of the levers the Navy has chosen. AML3D is one of the suppliers it has funded. How the money reaches AML3D Almost every US Navy contract AML3D has announced ran through BlueForge Alliance rather than directly with the Navy. BlueForge is a Texas non-profit spun out of the Texas A&M Engineering Experiment Station in 2022. AML3D describes it as the "neutral convener and integrator" for the US Navy's Submarine Industrial Base. A note on names, because AML3D and the Navy use two. The earlier contracts were written under the Submarine Industrial Base label. The programme office was later stood up as the Maritime Industrial Base, and AML3D's 2025 and 2026 releases use that name. They refer to the same effort, and this workup uses Maritime Industrial Base for anything dated 2025 or later. The scale of the vehicle is public. On 10 September 2024 the Navy awarded BlueForge a sole-source contract of US$950,744,520, with options to US$980,744,520, of which US$503.1 million in FY2024 shipbuilding and foreign-partner funds was obligated at award. Naval Sea Systems Command, the US Navy body which sets and approves technical standards for ships and submarines and which is usually written NAVSEA, told USNI News that BlueForge had received approximately US$1.3 billion since inception.[R11] AML3D signed a Manufacturing License Agreement with BlueForge on 11 September 2024. That agreement permits AML3D to work with suppliers inside the Submarine Industrial Base and to receive technical assistance and data, which in turn allows it to print, test and validate a wider range of Navy parts. It is the enabling instrument for everything that has followed.[R12] Payment terms on the parts contracts are described as payable up front and on milestones. For a small company that is a material feature. It means the customer funds the work rather than AML3D carrying it. The Letter of Intent On 6 July 2025 AML3D announced a Letter of Intent from the US Department of the Navy, signed by Matthew D Evans, Deputy Program Manager for Ships, US Navy Maritime Industrial Base. The release describes it as outlining plans to collaborate, and it carries no dollar value.[R13] Samso notes, as its reading rather than the company's wording, that a letter of intent of this kind creates no contractual obligation on either party. What it does carry is a demand forecast. As announced in July 2025, the figures were about 400 parts required in 2026, about 1,600 parts by 2030, and up to 100 additive manufacturing systems. Two cautions belong with those numbers, and they are the company's rather than Samso's. First, this is the customer's forecast of its own future need, in a letter of intent rather than a contract. It is not an order and it is not revenue. It is the strongest signal of intent AML3D has received and it should be read as exactly that. Second, AML3D has quoted the 2030 parts figure two different ways. The July 2025 release says about 1,600 parts by 2030. The release of 19 June 2026 quotes Managing Director Sean Ebert describing the same letter as indicating "a need for up to 100 additive manufacturing systems and 3,400 additively manufactured parts by 2030".[R14] The company has not reconciled the two publicly. Samso quotes the figure from the release that announced the letter, 1,600, and notes the discrepancy. The most recent release, of 17 September 2026, returns to the lower figure. It states that "US Navy forecasts indicated a need for up to 100 advanced additive manufacturing systems and 1,600 additively manufactured components by 2030". That is the same 1,600 this workup uses, and it is the company's most recent wording. Key to AML3D's successful US growth strategy is our ability to support the US Navy's Additive Manufacturing needs and our strong relationships within the US Navy Maritime Industrial Base. We are looking forward to continuing to build these relationships, to working with the US Navy to meet the surging demand for additive manufacturing identified in the Letter of Intent and continuing our strong investment in our US manufacturing capability. Sean Ebert, CEO, AML3D, in "US Navy Issues AML3D with Letter of Intent", AML3D company release, 6 July 2025 The quote claims a relationship and an intention to invest against a forecast. It stops short of claiming an order, and it should not be read as one. The policy weather The programme AML3D depends on sits inside AUKUS and inside the US shipbuilding budget, and both are political. AUKUS is the defence partnership between Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States. Its first pillar, usually written Pillar 1, is the transfer of nuclear-powered submarine capability to Australia. The US Department of Defense began a review of AUKUS in June 2025. By early December 2025, administration officials had publicly affirmed support for AUKUS including Pillar 1, though the Congressional Research Service records that further details of the review were not publicly disclosed. Australia is providing the United States US$3 billion, about A$4.2 billion, to increase American shipbuilding capacity. The first AUKUS-specific contract award followed on 24 April 2026, when General Dynamics Electric Boat received US$197 million, about A$276 million, for engineering and design work supporting the transfer of nuclear submarine capability to Australia, with options that could take it to US$930 million.[R15] The FY2027 US budget request, released in April 2026, was reported by Naval News as including US$65.83 billion for Navy shipbuilding, of which US$13.99 billion is the Virginia-class line. Samso has taken those figures from that report rather than from the budget documents themselves, so a reader wanting the exact appropriation account should go to the budget highlights book. Australia's May 2026 defence budget was reported at A$45.2 billion with a ramp-up in AUKUS spending.[R16] Samso found no evidence of a 2026 cut to US Navy Submarine Industrial Base funding or to the BlueForge vehicle. That search covered US Navy budget documents, USNI News, Naval News and the Congressional Research Service reporting, and it ran to 9 September 2026. Commentary questioning whether AUKUS will hold has continued through 2026, and it is commentary rather than policy. The honest position is that the funding has been appropriated and is flowing, and that a programme dependent on political continuity across two governments carries a risk that no operating performance by AML3D can remove. 5 The Contract Record, 2023 To 2026 AML3D has announced two kinds of US defence work. It sells ARCEMY systems to companies inside the submarine supply chain, and it prints parts and runs alloy testing under contract to BlueForge Alliance. The two revenue lines behave differently and are worth keeping apart. A currency warning, before the numbers AML3D reports in Australian dollars, and its announcement headlines drop the currency prefix. The March 2026 release is headlined "$9.9M ARCEMY X Order from US Military Shipbuilder: HII-NNS". The body of the same release says "~AU$9.9 million" and carries the footnote "1 USD = 1.4306 AUD at 02/03/2026". Applying the company's rate, which is Samso's arithmetic rather than a published figure, the order is worth about US$6.9 million. Several trade outlets have reported that contract as a US dollar figure. It is an Australian dollar figure. Every figure in the tables below is taken from the body of the company's release, in the currency the company used. Where trade press has converted a figure to US dollars at its own rate on its own day, Samso has ignored the conversion, because different outlets used different rates and do not agree with each other. Contracted is not installed In its FY2026 results release of 31 August 2026, AML3D states that it "has signed contracts to deploy 14 ARCEMY systems into the US Navy's supply chain", plus two further systems supporting high-value US industrial manufacturing. Table 2 does not reconcile cleanly to fourteen. Counting the units in that table gives sixteen, because the May 2024 entry is a lease of two systems and the November 2025 FasTech system may be one of the two the company assigns to industrial rather than Navy work. The October 2025 release called the two Newport News systems the ninth and tenth, and adding the four ordered in March 2026 gives fourteen only if the leased pair and FasTech are excluded. AML3D has not published the reconciliation and Samso has not attempted one on the company's behalf. The count also moved, and the company has not explained how. The release of 17 September 2026 states in its body that there are "16 systems deployed to support the US Navy SIB to date", and quotes Sean Ebert saying AML3D has "already deployed 17 ARCEMY systems to meet US demand to date, with 16 of those in support of the US Navy SIB". Seventeen days earlier the FY2026 results release said the company "has signed contracts to deploy 14 ARCEMY systems into the US Navy's supply chain, together with two further orders for systems supporting high-value US industrial manufacturing". A third figure sits between them. The 2026 Annual Report, lodged the same day as the results release, says AML3D "signed orders for a further eight ARCEMY systems for deployment into the US Navy supply chain during the year", and that this "brings the total number of ARCEMY System orders to support the of [sic] US Defence sector to fifteen, including the ARCEMY X at FasTech". So two documents lodged on 31 August 2026 give fourteen and fifteen, and the release of 17 September gives sixteen and seventeen. Three things differ between those sentences and none is defined in any of the documents. The verb moves from signed contracts to deploy to deployed. The population moves, because August splits fourteen Navy systems from two non-Navy ones while September puts sixteen inside Navy support. And the name of the programme moves, from Maritime Industrial Base in August to submarine industrial base in September, which are not the same scope. Samso has quoted each figure as published and named the document it came from. AML3D announced nothing between 31 August and 17 September, so there is no further document to read against them. Signed contracts to deploy is not the same as installed and operational. As at June 2026, of the six systems ordered by Newport News Shipbuilding, two were operational and four were due in FY2027. The February 2026 investor presentation shows three systems installed at Austal and two at Huntington Ingalls, and the two at Newport News were not announced as operational until 19 June 2026. Table 2 records two Austal orders rather than three, so the presentation's Austal count includes a unit Samso could not match to an announced order. The distinction matters because it tells a reader where the revenue is. A system that is contracted but not yet built sits in the order book. Commissioning releases the last payment and is when the revenue lands. The 19 June 2026 release makes the mechanism visible. Commissioning the two Newport News systems triggered "the final payment of ~$892,000" on a A$4.5 million order, which is about a fifth of the contract value held to the end. Share price response to the 2026 announcements The share price reaction to the 2026 announcements says something about how the market reads this company. Two readings come out of that table. On the seven announcements in Table 4, the market moved further on orders than on delivery. The three order announcements moved the stock 26 per cent, 18 per cent and 11 per cent. The three delivery and commissioning milestones moved it 5 per cent, minus 5.6 per cent and 7 per cent, even though those were the events that turned contracts into cash. Samso's view is that this is a pattern rather than a coincidence. Seven announcements in one year is a small sample and it is offered as an interpretation. The FY2026 result moved the stock 3.7 per cent on the heaviest volume of the year, 16.12 million shares. Samso's view is that heavy volume with a small move on genuinely good news is what selling into good news looks like, and that this is a fair description of what happened on 31 August. It is an interpretation rather than a fact, and it is offered as one. 6 What "Qualified" Actually Means Here The language around qualification in additive manufacturing is loose. Qualifying an alloy on test coupons and holding an approval to supply a given part to a named standard are different things, and the same word gets used for both. What AML3D verifiably holds AML3D holds four accreditations and two further listings, each announced or published and dated. DNV Additive Manufacturing Facility accreditation with wire feedstock, for marine components. Announced 3 August 2022 and described by the company as a world first.[R19] DNV is a Norwegian classification society, one of the bodies that certifies ships and offshore structures. AS 9100D aerospace quality management, announced 2 April 2024. Lloyd's Register Certified AM Facility and ISO 9001, both listed in the investor presentation lodged 27 February 2026. Listed as an AUKUS Community member in the same presentation. Separately, the FY2026 results release of 31 August 2026 reports onboarding to the Australian Submarine Agency's Defence Industry Vendor Qualification programme, which runs an additive manufacturing stream. The FY2025 Annual Report treats these as material. It states that "the reputation of AML3D's products and services is largely dependent on retaining Lloyd's Register and AS 9100 accreditation". A company that names its accreditations as a principal business risk is telling you they are load-bearing. None of them is a US Navy credential. DNV and Lloyd's Register are commercial marine classification societies, and their approval carries no automatic standing in US Navy procurement. AS 9100D is a quality management system certification, which is a statement about how a factory is run rather than an approval of any product or process. Those certificates are not nothing, and they carry no automatic standing in US Navy procurement, so they should not be read as a step towards one. What AML3D does not hold, or does not disclose Samso searched AML3D's announcements, annual reports, investor presentations and website, and the trade press covering the company, for a NAVSEA technical publication number, a NAVSEA approval letter, or a Qualified Products List entry. A Qualified Products List is the register of suppliers approved to make a given item. That search ran to 19 September 2026 and found none, and the release of 17 September 2026 makes no NAVSEA claim either. AML3D's Industry Standards page lists standards that apply to wire arc additive manufacturing generally, including ASTM F3187, AMS 7004 and 7005, AWS D20.1 and ASME BPVC Section IX, and names "NAVSEA, Mil-Spec, Def Stans" as a category. It does not claim AML3D holds any of them.[R20] That is a claim of absence, so the search behind it is stated. It does not mean no such approval exists. It means AML3D has not announced one, and a reader should not assume one. Alloy by alloy Nickel aluminium bronze is the furthest advanced. Characterisation, corrosion and strength testing were contracted through BlueForge in 2023. The FY2025 Annual Report, in August 2025, still described the nickel aluminium bronze and copper-nickel qualification programmes as continuing. By March 2026, AML3D announced an order for five replacement parts in that alloy following successful US Navy hydrostatic testing of ARCEMY-printed components. Hydrostatic testing is a pressure test, where the part is filled with water and pressurised to prove it does not leak or deform. Copper-nickel has moved furthest in the shortest time. Testing contracts came in September 2023 and May 2024, and prototype Virginia-class tailpieces were supplied in January 2025 for testing and in-service trial. Until September 2026 that was as far as the public record went, and this workup treated the alloy as in progress with prototypes delivered. The release of 17 September 2026 changes that. AML3D states that the order "demonstrates AML3D can successfully convert a successful CuNi qualification program in support of the US Navy submarine industrial base (“SIB”) into production part manufacturing". That is the company saying a qualification programme has produced a production order, which is the step this workup identified as the one that matters. The release does not use the word qualified, it does not name a qualifying authority, and it does not link the order back to the January 2025 prototypes. It is the first production parts order AML3D has announced in that alloy. Super duplex stainless steel has published fatigue data behind it, covered below, and test components were supplied to Australia's Defence Science and Technology Group in April 2024. That is materials development and test supply, not a US Navy qualification. Non-safety-critical Every US Navy parts contract AML3D announced up to March 2026 was for non-safety-critical components. The FY2026 results release of 31 August 2026 describes that work as "high demand, non-safety critical replacement components used in US Navy submarines". The March 2026 order was for parts no longer supported by the original manufacturer. The 17 September 2026 release does not use the phrase. Samso ran a term scan over the full text of the ASX-lodged release and over the version on the company's website. The words safety, critical and non-safety critical do not appear in either. The release describes the parts as "three large, high pressure, fluid control components for use in US Navy nuclear submarines" and classifies them no further. Read that as an absence and nothing more. AML3D has not said the parts are safety-critical, and it has not repeated the qualifier it used before. The qualifier was in current use as recently as 31 August 2026, in the document describing the immediately preceding submarine parts contract, so this is not a phrase the company had dropped from its vocabulary months earlier. Why it is absent from the September release is not something the release settles, and Samso is not going to infer it. Samso's concern is that the phrase has carried real information in every earlier parts release, and a reader who relied on it to judge what class of work AML3D is doing no longer has it. Non-safety-critical is the company's language, and it describes the current work accurately. The work is obsolescence and supply-chain gap filling rather than primary pressure-hull or safety-critical manufacture. It also says how far the qualification journey still has to run. Nothing about that is a criticism. Non-safety-critical replacement parts for boats whose original suppliers have gone is a real problem the Navy is paying real money to solve, and being trusted with it is how a supplier earns the next thing. It is a different business from the one an investor pictures on reading the words US Navy submarine parts. What the anisotropy evidence shows AML3D's Chief Technology Officer Andrew Sales is the first author of a peer-reviewed paper that is unusually useful here, because it publishes a nuanced result rather than a promotional one. The paper is "Fatigue Crack Growth Rates and Crack Tip Opening Loads in CT Specimens Made of SDSS and Manufactured Using WAAM", in Materials, 2024, volume 17, article 1842, with co-authors from the University of Queensland and the University of Adelaide. SDSS is super duplex stainless steel. CT specimens are compact tension coupons, small test pieces machined out of a printed wall rather than components, so coupon behaviour is where a qualification programme starts rather than where it finishes.[R21] Anisotropy means a material behaving differently depending on direction, which is a known weakness of layer-built metal. AML3D's summary of the work, published on 10 May 2024,[R22] states that "fatigue properties are almost identical, or Isotropic, in both directions when expressed in terms of the effective stress intensity factor range". The paper itself puts it as fatigue crack growth rates being very similar in both directions when correlated by the effective stress intensity factor range. Either way it is a genuine positive for super duplex stainless steel on that measure. The same work is candid about what remains. AML3D's summary states that "the difference in crack tip opening loads between the two directions can be attributed to any residual stresses induced by the WAM process", and that "if a component is overloaded in service, this difference can affect its fatigue life". It follows that "to prolong the fatigue life of a load-bearing SDSS component, one can account for a longitudinal deposition direction in the component design". Print direction is a design variable that affects fatigue life. That is the anisotropy problem managed rather than removed. The company adds that more research is needed to confirm the findings using different printing parameters. Publishing that, with the CTO's name on it, is a point in the company's favour. It is also the clearest independent statement available of what the process still has to prove. 7 The FY2026 Result AML3D lodged its FY2026 results on 31 August 2026 under the heading "AML3D Delivers Record FY2026 Revenue and Reports H2 Profit". The numbers behind that heading are the best the company has produced. Revenue including lease income was A$12,473,338, up 70 per cent on FY2025. Revenue on its own, before the A$713,026 of equipment lease income, was A$11,760,312, which the Annual Report describes as up 76 per cent. Both are AML3D's figures on different bases, and the A$12.5 million the company led with is the first of them. Gross profit was A$7,801,528, up 54 per cent. EBITDA improved to a loss of A$4,234,179 from A$6,541,507. The loss after tax narrowed 38 per cent to A$4,482,811. Gross margin fell during the year and the company states both ends of it. The Annual Report gives a gross profit margin of 63 per cent against 68 per cent in the prior year, on gross profit of A$7,801,528 against A$5,051,738. That is five points of margin compression in the year of record system deliveries. It matters because it is the number that says whether the big bespoke systems are being sold at catalogue economics or bought into, and AML3D does not comment on the move. The number the company led with is smaller than any of those. EBITDA for the second half was a positive A$607,607, which the results release rounds to A$608,000. It is the first EBITDA-positive half in the company's history. The 2026 financial year saw rapid growth in ARCEMY system installations and component manufacturing in the USA. It is encouraging to see our strategy of moving beyond the US Defence market begin to gain traction. During the year, we achieved record revenue growth and delivered our first profitable half-year in the second six months. Sean Ebert, Managing Director, AML3D, "AML3D Delivers Record FY2026 Revenue and Reports H2 Profit", 31 August 2026 The claim in the middle of that quote is worth testing. Moving beyond the US defence market is what AML3D says is gaining traction, and the evidence for it is thin in the disclosures. The two named non-defence customers are Tennessee Valley Authority and FasTech, and the company published no defence against non-defence revenue split for FY2026. On what is public, the FY2026 growth was overwhelmingly a US defence story. How lopsided the year was The full-year figures cover a first half that was poor. In the six months to 31 December 2025, revenue was A$3.2 million, down 30.4 per cent on the A$4.6 million of the prior first half. Gross profit fell 47.1 per cent to A$1.8 million. The net loss for that half was A$5.0 million, against A$3.3 million a year earlier.[R24] Set that against the full year and the shape becomes clear. A first half with A$3.2 million of revenue and a A$5.0 million loss sits inside a full year of A$12.5 million and a A$4.48 million loss. AML3D did not publish a discrete second-half revenue figure or a discrete first-half EBITDA figure, so the split has to be derived. Samso's subtraction gives second-half revenue of about A$9.3 million and a second-half net profit of about A$0.5 million. Both of those are Samso arithmetic on published half-year and full-year figures, not company disclosures, and they should be read that way. The profit figure in particular is a small difference between two large numbers, so it is sensitive to the rounding in the published half-year loss. Figure 2. AML3D's FY2026 by half. Roughly three quarters of the year's revenue landed in the six months to 30 June 2026. First-half figures are as reported. Second-half figures are Samso's subtraction of the reported first half from the reported full year and are not company disclosures. Source: Samso, from AML3D half-year report of 27 February 2026 and AML3D FY2026 results release and 2026 Annual Report of 31 August 2026. What the arithmetic says is that essentially three quarters of the year's revenue landed in the second half. That is a commissioning-driven business. Revenue arrives when systems are installed and signed off, and the installations clustered. Two consequences follow, and they pull in opposite directions. The favourable one is that the company has now demonstrated it can be profitable at a revenue rate it has actually achieved, rather than at a hypothetical one. The unfavourable one is that a half-year result driven by the timing of commissioning is not a run rate. A first half like FY2026's could happen again whenever installations bunch at the far end of a year, and the FY2026 first half is the evidence for that. Where the growth came from AML3D does not disclose a defence against non-defence revenue split, and it has not for either year. What it does disclose is the split between machines and printing, and that moved a long way. In FY2025, 48 per cent of revenue came from the sale of ARCEMY units and associated parts and 40 per cent from print revenue. In FY2026 the Annual Report gives 75 per cent from ARCEMY units and associated parts, 23 per cent from print revenue, and the remainder from recurring licence and lease fees. That is the most useful disclosure in the report and it cuts against the easy reading of the year. The record revenue was machine-led. The share coming from printing parts, which is the repeatable end of the business, fell from 40 per cent to 23 per cent. In dollar terms print revenue was roughly flat, because the total nearly doubled while the share more than halved. Samso's view is that a reader looking for evidence that the installed base generates recurring work will not find it in the FY2026 split, and that the September 2026 parts order matters partly because it is the first sign of that line growing again. Two cash figures in the same results release The FY2026 results release states cash at bank of A$26.7 million in its Highlights and a A$26.8 million cash balance at 30 June 2026 in its Outlook, in the same document. The Appendix 4C is the quarterly cash flow report an ASX company of this kind has to lodge. The one lodged on 27 July 2026 gives A$26,670,484, made up of A$6.67 million at bank and A$20.0 million in call deposits, and the Annual Report gives the same figure. Samso uses A$26,670,484. The discrepancy is noted because it is in a published document. A prior period restatement Note 36 of the 2026 Annual Report[R25] discloses four misstatements identified in the prior financial year, corrected by restating FY2025 across the profit and loss, balance sheet, statement of changes in equity and cash flows. A$10,000,000 of at-call deposits with a term over three months was reclassified out of cash and cash equivalents into other financial assets. A$147,836 of interest accruing on term deposits was recognised as a receivable, which is what restated the FY2025 loss after tax from A$7,401,734 to A$7,253,898. Grant funding of A$423,268 was recognised as a receivable with a matching deferred grant income liability. A transposition error meant the FY2025 potential tax benefit was overstated by A$1,880,571, reducing carried-forward tax benefits not brought to account from A$8,227,965 to A$6,347,394. Only one of the four changed the reported loss, and by A$147,836. A prior period restatement of four items in a company of this size is nonetheless a governance data point, and it belongs in a workup rather than in a footnote. 8 Cash, Capital Commitments And Dilution AML3D held A$26,670,484 in cash and cash equivalents at 30 June 2026, against a restated A$20,398,193 a year earlier. On that line cash rose about A$6.3 million. The company has not raised equity since November 2024, so the rise needs explaining, and the explanation is in the restatement. At 30 June 2025 AML3D also held A$10,079,840 in other financial assets, almost all of it at-call deposits with a term over three months that Note 36 moved out of cash and cash equivalents. At 30 June 2026 that line was A$79,840. Add the two together and total liquid funds went from A$30,478,033 to A$26,750,324, a fall of about A$3.7 million. Both numbers are true and they say different things. Cash and cash equivalents rose because money moved back out of term deposits. Total liquidity fell by A$3.7 million, which is what running the business cost after receipts. A reader comparing AML3D's cash line to last year's without the other financial assets line beside it will reach the wrong conclusion, and this workup uses the total. That November 2024 raising was a two-tranche institutional placement of approximately A$30 million at A$0.19, issuing about 157.9 million new shares. The issue price was a 17.4 per cent discount to the A$0.23 close of 19 November 2024. It is the money the company is still spending. The raising before it was smaller and struck at a far lower price. In May 2024 AML3D raised A$6,938,389 at A$0.05 through a one-for-three non-renounceable rights issue, its shortfall and two placements. Those two events are the reference points for what a raising costs this company when it needs one. The operating burn is falling within the year and rising across years. The June quarter used A$603,000 of operating cash, against A$2.058 million in the March quarter. Full-year operating outflow was A$4.65 million, which the Annual Report notes is up from A$2.89 million in FY2025. At the FY2026 rate the balance covers more than five years. Two things stop that being a comfortable reading, before the capital programme is even counted. The burn is volatile because the revenue is lumpy, so a single quarter's outflow is not a rate. And total liquid funds went backwards during FY2026, by about A$3.7 million, in the year the company describes as its best. A falling quarterly burn inside a falling annual balance is what a business looks like when it is improving and still consuming capital. There is also a gap between cash and revenue. FY2026 receipts from customers were A$10.4 million against revenue of A$12.5 million. The A$2.1 million difference sits in receivables and contract assets, which is the working capital AML3D carries between doing the work and being paid for it. Then there is the capital programme. AML3D has announced a A$17 million investment, A$12 million to double US manufacturing capacity at Stow, Ohio, and A$5 million for a UK and European Technology Centre. That is money the company intends to spend out of the A$26.67 million balance, and it is capital expenditure rather than operating burn, so it does not appear in the operating cash flow figures above. Set the two against each other and the position is that the cash balance funds operations comfortably and funds the expansion comfortably, and does not obviously fund both plus a downturn. Samso is not modelling the timing of that spend, because AML3D has not published a schedule for it. The point for a reader is that A$26.67 million is not A$26.67 million of runway once A$17 million of it has been committed to plant. The A$17 million is not a new commitment. The November 2024 placement announcement already allocated approximately A$12 million to the Ohio expansion and approximately A$5 million to United Kingdom and European market opportunities, alongside about A$3 million for research and development. The structure has been public since the raising. Dilution overhang AML3D had 567,445,783 fully paid ordinary shares on issue at 30 June 2026, up from 537,740,595 a year earlier, with share capital of A$60,148,146. That is 29,705,188 new shares in a year with no capital raising. The 2026 Annual Report attributes A$3,145,519 of share capital to those issues, and Samso has not established from the documents available how the issues break down between option exercises, vesting rights and consideration shares. The 2026 Annual Report also records eight holders of 45,070,383 unquoted options, each converting one for one, and separately about 8.2 million performance rights. Together those are about 9.4 per cent of the current share count. AML3D does not publish the exercise prices or expiry dates of those options in the material Samso could access. Without them a reader cannot tell how much of the overhang is live at A$0.150 and how much is well out of the money. Several data services carry share counts between 552 million and 556 million for AL3. Those registers are stale. The figure above is from Note 23 of the 2026 Annual Report and is confirmed in the Additional Shareholder Information as at 24 August 2026. 9 The Order Book Nearly Doubled, And How It Converts AML3D's order book is the most quoted number in its story and the one most easily misread. The roll-forward is a useful cross-check. AML3D opened FY2026 with A$9 million of contracted orders, won A$20 million of new contracts during the year, and closed with A$16.8 million. The difference, about A$12.2 million, is what it delivered, against A$12.5 million of reported revenue. Those two numbers being close is a point in favour of both. Three distinctions in that table do real work. An order book is not revenue. A$16.8 million of contracted orders roll into FY2027. That is work AML3D has been engaged to do, and it converts to revenue only as systems are built, delivered and commissioned. The four Newport News systems ordered in March 2026 are expected to be installed in the third quarter of FY2027, which is January to March 2027. Revenue on those arrives when they are signed off, not when they were ordered. A pipeline is not an order book. The A$78 million is AML3D's estimate of opportunities it is pursuing. It is not contracted, and the company does not publish a conversion rate on it or a definition of what qualifies for inclusion. It is a useful indicator of activity and it should not be added to anything. The rollover almost doubled. A$9 million became A$16.8 million. On the company's numbers, AML3D enters FY2027 with more contracted work in hand than it entered FY2026 with, and FY2026 was a record year. That is the strongest single number in the outlook and it is a real one. One order has been added since. The A$0.5 million copper-nickel parts order announced on 17 September 2026 was signed after the 31 August balance date, so on the dates it is additional to the A$16.8 million. AML3D does not say so. The September release does not mention the order book at all, and Samso has not added the two figures together in any table here. Demand that supported our FY26 performance has continued into FY27. While we continue to deliver the $16.8 million orders in hand, we are also working to convert our $78 million global sales pipeline and have visibility on potential near-term contracts in the US and the UK. Our strong balance sheet means we have the capacity to complete our planned $17 million investment to double US manufacturing capacity and establish a European Technology Centre to support growth. We are focused on continuing AML3D's multi-year track record of record delivery and building shareholder value over time. Sean Ebert, Managing Director, AML3D, "AML3D Delivers Record FY2026 Revenue and Reports H2 Profit", 31 August 2026 The quote expresses confidence that FY2027 can deliver another record revenue performance, and it names the two numbers behind that confidence. What it stops short of is a forecast. AML3D has issued no FY2027 revenue guidance. Any FY2027 revenue figure a reader encounters is either an analyst estimate or somebody's arithmetic, and it should be labelled as one of those. The repeatability question The panel's manufacturing systems seat asks a question AML3D's disclosures do not answer. What happens after a customer buys a machine? There are three possible answers. The customer buys more machines, which Austal USA and Newport News Shipbuilding have both done. The customer becomes a consumables annuity, buying certified wire feedstock in volume, which AML3D has invested in the capacity to supply but does not report as a separate revenue line. Or the customer buys once and is finished. On the evidence, the first is happening with two customers. Austal USA has taken three systems on the company's count, two of which Samso can match to an announced order, and Newport News has ordered six. Austal USA has now also placed a parts order, which is a third kind of repeat from the same customer. The FY2026 split in section 7 sets a limit on how much comfort to take from that, because print revenue fell from 40 per cent of the total to 23 per cent while machines went to 75 per cent. The second is plausible and undisclosed. AML3D took US$0.2 million of a May 2024 BlueForge contract specifically to build copper-nickel wire feedstock capacity, and it sourced 8.5 tonnes of nickel aluminium bronze wire for a BAE Systems UK programme in April 2025. It does not report feedstock revenue separately, so nobody outside the company can size it. That is the gap in the story. A machine business whose customers repeat is worth considerably more than one whose customers do not, and AML3D's reporting does not yet let a reader tell which it is. 10 The Register AML3D's share register has one substantial holder, and that holder is a retail platform rather than an institution. At 24 August 2026 there were 6,500 holders of 567,445,783 shares. The twenty largest held 178,210,262 shares between them, or 31.41 per cent. There was one substantial shareholder, Netwealth Investments Limited, holding 35,716,514 shares or 6.29 per cent. A substantial shareholder is one holding 5 per cent or more, a level that triggers a disclosure notice to the ASX. Rows 1, 2, 5, 6 and 7 are platforms and custodians, which are administrative wrappers holding shares for many underlying accounts rather than conviction positions. Netwealth is a wrap platform, so the largest single line on the register is beneficially thousands of retail investors. Those five lines alone are 15.13 per cent of the company, against 31.41 per cent held by the top twenty in total. Samso has not put a figure on identifiable end holders across the full twenty, because AML3D publishes only the twenty largest lines and not the beneficial ownership behind them. There is no cornerstone institution and no director line in the top twenty. Nor is there a US defence strategic holder. Samso's view is that this is a structural weakness rather than a neutral fact, and that it is consistent with two other things in this workup. It fits the thin broker coverage, and it fits the 3.7 per cent move on the heaviest volume of the year when the company reported its first profitable half. A register with no anchor holder has nobody with the position or the incentive to look closely. The distribution adds to the picture. Holders of 50,001 shares and over hold 87.72 per cent of the company, and 1,605 holders, 24.7 per cent of the register, hold less than a marketable parcel. A marketable parcel is a holding worth at least A$500 at the current price, and a holder below it can be bought out under the ASX listing rules. The founder's holding Andrew Sales founded the company in 2014 and is now Executive Director and Chief Technology Officer. The FY2025 Annual Report gives his relevant interest as a director at 30 June 2025 as 26,207,707 shares plus four million options. He sold 7,000,000 shares during FY2025, reducing that interest from 33,207,707 at 1 July 2024. He does not appear in the twenty largest holders at 24 August 2026, where twentieth place was 3,328,760 shares. His holding has therefore either fallen a long way in about fourteen months or moved into a nominee account, and Samso could not establish which. The place a reader would settle it is the directors' interests disclosure in the 2026 Annual Report and any Appendix 3Y lodged since. Founder selling is not by itself a signal. Founders sell for reasons that have nothing to do with the company. It is a fact a reader is entitled to have, and the reduction is disclosed in AML3D's annual report. 11 The People AML3D has a four-person board, unchanged since 15 January 2024. The chairman ran steel manufacturing in Ohio. AML3D's US manufacturing base is in Stow, Ohio. Samso's view is that this is unlikely to be a coincidence, and it is the kind of thing a small company's board is for. The founder is still in the building, as Chief Technology Officer rather than as Managing Director. He handed the chief executive role to Ryan Millar on 26 September 2022 and moved to Chief Technology Officer the same day. Millar resigned on 15 June 2023, Sean Ebert stepped in as interim Chief Executive that day, and Ebert was confirmed as Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer on 18 September 2023. In a technology company whose entire product is a process, having the person who developed the process still running the technical side is an asset. It is also a key-person risk that AML3D does not quantify. The US bench The more interesting appointments are one level down, at AML3D USA Inc. Pete Goumas was appointed President of AML3D USA on 18 September 2023 and is described in the company's 2026 materials as President and Chief Executive Officer of AML3D USA. His background is given as more than 38 years leading technical and manufacturing organisations in government and civil nuclear power, power generation and technology development. Frederick J Stefany's appointment to the board of AML3D USA Inc as a Non-Executive Director was announced on 26 June 2025. His record, as set out in the company's release, is the reason the appointment matters. He established and served as the first Program Manager of the US Navy's Maritime Industrial Base, from July 2024 to February 2025. He was Principal Civilian Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Navy for Research, Development and Acquisition from October 2019 to August 2024, overseeing the start of the Columbia submarine programme and the expansion of the Virginia programme, [R26] and spent almost three years as acting Assistant Secretary in that role. AML3D's release also dates his entry to the Department of the Navy to 1985. That does not sit exactly with the 43 years of service he describes in the quotation below, and Samso has left both as published. After 43 years of deeply fulfilling service, I was happy to retire from the US Department of the Navy earlier this year. This decision created an opportunity to join the Board of AML3D USA and I am proud to be able to continue to support the great work being done to enhance the US Navy's capabilities. Frederick J Stefany, Non-Executive Director, AML3D USA Inc, in "Senior US Navy Program Lead Appointed to Board of AML3D USA", 26 June 2025 A retired US Navy Rear Admiral, David Goggins, was announced as a US Board Advisor on 16 June 2026. He is an advisor rather than a director of either entity. AML3D has not published that release on its own website and Samso could not open the primary announcement, so the detail of his background here rests on trade press reporting rather than on a company document, and no quotation from him is reproduced. What this bench amounts to is straightforward. AML3D has hired the people who used to run the programme it now sells into. That is a legitimate and common way to build a defence business, it is disclosed, and it is worth naming as the commercial asset it is. Two things belong beside it. Access to a programme office is not a qualification, and it does not by itself convert a non-safety-critical parts contract into a safety-critical one. And United States post-government employment rules constrain what former officials may do on behalf of a contractor. Frederick Stefany left the Maritime Industrial Base programme in February 2025 and joined the board of a supplier to that programme in June 2025. Nothing about that sequence is improper on its face, and AML3D has not published how those restrictions are managed. 12 Peer Comparison A Samso workup compares its subject against peers on five dimensions. On a mining company those are market capitalisation, stage of exploration, commodity, jurisdiction risk and geological potential. On a manufacturer the first, second and fourth carry over, commodity becomes technology and end market, and geological potential becomes the credibility of the path to sustained profit. Table 10 sets out all five for the two closest analogues, using the result and the auditor's position as the evidence on that last dimension. Titomic and Amaero Two ASX-listed companies are doing something recognisably similar. Titomic (ASX: TTT) makes cold spray systems, which build parts by firing metal powder at supersonic speed rather than melting it. Amaero (ASX: 3DA) makes the specialty alloy powders that other people's machines consume. All three began as Australian companies, all three are selling into the US defence industrial base, and all three are loss-making. Four things come out of that comparison. AML3D is the only one of the three approaching profitability. On the periods examined here, a positive EBITDA half is something neither of the others has produced. AML3D is the cheaper of the two that can be compared on a full year. On its most recent full-year revenue it trades at about 6.6 times revenue, and Amaero at about 13 times. Both multiples are Samso's division of market capitalisation by reported revenue rather than published figures. Titomic has no comparable year, because it moved its balance date from 30 June to 31 December. AML3D has more revenue than Titomic on any comparable basis, a fraction of the loss, roughly double the cash, and a market capitalisation about A$120 million lower. The Titomic comparison needs care, and this is a warning for anyone building a peer table from a data service. Titomic moved its balance date from 30 June to 31 December to align with its US and Netherlands subsidiaries. Data aggregators have stitched the mismatched periods together and report a Titomic FY2026 revenue of A$10.54 million, up 11.8 per cent. There is no such year. The audited half to 30 June 2026 shows total revenue of A$4,869,881, down 11.1 per cent, of which only A$3,508,590 came from contracts with customers. The balance was research and development tax incentive, grants and interest. Its auditor, RSM Australia Partners, drew attention to a material uncertainty related to going concern, noting a half-year loss of A$19,351,495 and operating cash outflows of A$14,488,995. Titomic announced a A$16.5 million placement at A$0.13 within days of that report.[R27] Both peers are leaving Australia and AML3D is not. Amaero completed its redomicile to Delaware in June 2026 and has confidentially submitted a draft registration statement on Form S-1 to the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Titomic has flagged a US redomicile for the second half of 2026.[R28] AML3D remains Australian. Samso's view is that this is the clearest strategic divergence in the group, that it is a real question rather than a settled one, and that the market has not visibly rewarded AML3D for staying. The wider ASX comparison Aurora Labs is in that table deliberately. It is an ASX-listed metal 3D printing company that has been listed for years and reports revenue of A$560,000. It is what this sector can look like when a technology reaches the market and the commercialisation does not follow, and it is the downside case a reader should hold beside the upside one. The companies that are gone A peer table built only from companies still listed is flattering by construction. The listed history of metal additive manufacturing is a history of value destruction, and the full comparison includes the companies that are gone. Desktop Metal was removed from the New York Stock Exchange on 14 April 2025 and filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on 28 July 2025. Its core remaining assets were sold for about US$7 million, with the foreign subsidiaries fetching a further US$10 million. Equity was cancelled and shareholders received nothing.[R29] Markforged was acquired by Nano Dimension for approximately US$116 million, closing on 25 April 2025, and delisted. Nikon SLM Solutions was acquired by Nikon in 2023 and taken private. In February 2026 Nikon wrote down about ¥90.6 billion against that acquisition, reported in the trade press at about US$591 million, and cut its guidance, citing an intensifying competitive environment in the metal 3D printer market. Of the remaining large listed names, 3D Systems reported second quarter 2026 revenue of US$94.6 million, down 0.3 per cent year on year, with a net loss of US$12.9 million.[R30] Nano Dimension holds cash of about US$432 million, and its market capitalisation is below that figure, so the market values the whole company for less than the money in it. Only one of the international names commonly grouped into this sector is profitable, Protolabs, and it is a digital manufacturing bureau rather than a metal additive manufacturing company. None of that is an argument against AML3D. AML3D is doing something the others largely did not, which is selling into a customer with a budget, a shortage and a political mandate. It is context, and it is the context in which a reader should hold the phrase "3D printing company". 13 The Competition AML3D's technology is not unique and the company does not claim it is. Wire arc additive manufacturing is a well-understood process built from off-the-shelf industrial robots and off-the-shelf welding equipment. AML3D uses ABB arms and Fronius welding packages, both of which anyone can buy. What AML3D owns is a set of commercial positions rather than a technical monopoly. It holds patents on its method and apparatus, granted in Australia, Europe, India, Japan, New Zealand, the Republic of Korea, Singapore, Malaysia and the United Kingdom. It owns its software stack, and it holds the DNV, Lloyd's Register and AS 9100D accreditations. It has a working relationship with the US Navy's Maritime Industrial Base and, on the company's September 2026 count, sixteen systems deployed in support of it. Those advantages are built from relationships and time. They are real, and they are not barriers to entry in the technology itself. The United States is not on that patent list, in the material Samso could access, and the United States is where the entire business is. Either AML3D has no granted US patent, which matters given who it is competing with, or the list Samso worked from is incomplete. The intellectual property note in the annual report is where a reader would settle it. Lincoln Electric Lincoln Electric Additive Solutions, part of Lincoln Electric Holdings (Nasdaq: LECO), is, in Samso's view, the most serious competitive threat, and it is funded by AML3D's customer. On 30 September 2025 the US Navy's Maritime Industrial Base Program, General Dynamics Electric Boat and Lincoln Electric announced a Maritime Industrial Base-funded investment for Lincoln Electric to supply critical components for nuclear submarine construction, using four large-format metal additive manufacturing machines at its Cleveland facility. Steven B Hedlund, Chairman and Chief Executive of Lincoln Electric, described it as strengthening the company's partnership with Electric Boat. Matt Sermon, Executive Director of the Maritime Industrial Base Program, described the programme as charged with strengthening and expanding the shipbuilding and repair capacity the nation needs. Lincoln Electric is a welding company more than a century old, with a US manufacturing footprint, a consumables business, a balance sheet AML3D cannot match, and arc expertise as deep as anyone's. It is competing on the same proposition, wire arc for shipbuilding, funded by the same programme office. Matt Sermon also appears in AML3D's February 2026 investor presentation, photographed visiting AML3D USA. The same programme is courting both. The wording in the two announcements is worth holding side by side. The Maritime Industrial Base funded Lincoln Electric to supply critical components for nuclear submarine construction. Every AML3D parts contract up to March 2026 was for components the company described as non-safety-critical, and its September 2026 order classifies its parts neither way. Samso's view is that this fact gets less attention than it deserves. It does not make the company's position worthless. Navies deliberately fund more than one supplier, and being one of two funded suppliers to a programme with a shortage is a defensible place to be. What it does rule out is any reading in which AML3D has a clear run at the US Navy. The private competitors Most of AML3D's real competition is private. A reader comparing AML3D only against listed companies is looking at the smaller half of the field. 14 What Has To Go Right, And What Could Go Wrong The analysis in this workup was done by a panel of five specialists constituted for this sector, and the risks below are grouped by the seat that raised each one. The seats are the welding and materials engineer, the manufacturing systems engineer, the defence procurement and qualification analyst, the capital goods financial analyst, and the programme and policy analyst. What has to go right Four things have to happen. The A$16.8 million order book has to convert on time. Most of it is the four Newport News systems due in the third quarter of FY2027. Systems that slip a quarter move revenue across a reporting line, and FY2026's first half showed what that looks like. The A$17 million capital programme has to produce capacity that gets used. Doubling US manufacturing capacity is only value-creating if the demand arrives to fill it. AML3D is spending most of its cash on a bet that it does. The qualification pathway has to keep moving. Replacement parts of the kind AML3D has been contracted for are a real business and a small one. The value in the story is the move up the qualification ladder. The September 2026 copper-nickel order is one step along it, at A$0.5 million, and the next measure is whether a second and larger order in that alloy follows. The programme funding has to hold. Everything above assumes the US Navy keeps paying and that AUKUS survives politically for long enough. What could go wrong Materials seat. Qualification stalls short of safety-critical work. Every US Navy parts contract AML3D announced up to March 2026 was for non-safety-critical components, and the September 2026 order classifies its parts neither way. The company's published research shows residual stress is present and consequential, and that print orientation is a design variable affecting fatigue life. Moving from parts where a failure is an inconvenience to parts where a failure is a casualty is a large step, and no announced approval shows AML3D has taken it. Samso found no NAVSEA technical publication number, approval letter or Qualified Products List entry for AML3D, having searched company announcements, annual reports, presentations, its website and the trade press to 19 September 2026. Manufacturing systems seat. The machine sales do not repeat. AML3D does not disclose feedstock revenue separately, nor utilisation of its installed base. What it does disclose is that print revenue fell from 40 per cent of the total to 23 per cent in FY2026 while machine sales went to 75 per cent, so on the year just reported the installed base did not generate a growing annuity. Fourteen systems contracted, against a customer forecast of up to a hundred, is either an early position in a programme that keeps buying, or most of the demand there was ever going to be. AML3D's disclosures do not settle which, and Samso is not going to multiply the two figures together to pretend they do. Procurement seat. The customer funds a competitor on the same rationale. Lincoln Electric received Maritime Industrial Base funding for the same purpose in September 2025, and for critical components rather than non-safety-critical ones. DEEP Manufacturing holds a product-level DNV certification for wire arc pressure vessels rated for human occupancy that AML3D has not announced an equivalent of. AML3D was early into this customer. The programme has not yet settled on anyone. Financial seat. The cash is committed. The A$26.67 million balance funds either a long runway or a A$17 million expansion, and it does not comfortably fund both plus a bad year. Revenue is lumpy enough that a bad year is a real possibility, and a company that needs to raise after a weak half raises on weak terms. AML3D's history shows what that looks like. The November 2024 placement was struck at a 17.4 per cent discount to the previous close, and the May 2024 raising was priced at A$0.05. Policy seat. The programme is political and the exposure is unhedged in two ways. The obvious exposure is that US Navy Maritime Industrial Base funding, and AUKUS behind it, depend on political continuity in two countries. The less obvious one is currency. AML3D reports in Australian dollars and an increasing share of its revenue is earned in US dollars from US customers through a US subsidiary. The company has not quantified that exposure in any document Samso could access, so a reader cannot tell how much of the FY2026 revenue growth was operational and how much was translation. Currency cuts the other way too. The A$16.8 million order book is largely US dollar work reported in Australian dollars, and AML3D's release footnotes an exchange rate on the day of the order. A stronger Australian dollar reduces the Australian dollar value of that order book before a single system ships. The case for AML3D, stated fairly The risks above run to some length, so the argument on the other side deserves the same treatment in one place rather than scattered through the workup. Every figure in it is sourced in the sections above. The operating numbers moved in the right direction on every line but one. Gross margin fell five points. Revenue up 70 per cent to A$12.5 million. Gross profit up 54 per cent to A$7.8 million. EBITDA improved 35 per cent. The loss after tax narrowed 38 per cent. And the second half produced the first EBITDA-positive half in the company's history. A company that reaches operating breakeven at a revenue level it has actually achieved is in a different position from one that projects reaching it. The order book nearly doubled. A$16.8 million of contracted work rolls into FY2027 against A$9 million a year earlier, and the roll-forward reconciles closely to reported revenue. That is the most useful forward indicator AML3D publishes, and it is a contracted number rather than a pipeline estimate. The customer is real, is funded, and has a problem its existing supply chain has not solved. The US Navy is delivering about 1.1 Virginia-class submarines a year against a target of two, its contractor names material availability as a cause, and the shipbuilding budget request runs to tens of billions of dollars. Very few ASX small caps sell into a customer of that size with a shortage of that kind. Two customers have come back and bought more. Austal USA has taken three systems and Newport News Shipbuilding has ordered six. Repeat orders from a shipyard are the best evidence publicly available that the machines are performing. In September 2026 Austal USA came back again, this time for parts rather than a machine. A qualification programme has produced a production order. AML3D says the September 2026 copper-nickel order converts a qualification programme into production part manufacturing. It is small at A$0.5 million, and it is the first time the company has been able to say that sentence about an alloy in the US Navy supply chain. It also comes in the year the print revenue share fell, so it is the counterweight to that rather than a confirmation of it. The company has not needed money since November 2024. A$26.67 million of cash, a falling operating burn, and no raising in nearly two years is an unusual position for an ASX company of this size and stage. The bench is credible and the published technical claims are stated with their limitations. AML3D has hired people who ran the programme it sells into, and its Chief Technology Officer publishes peer-reviewed work that reports the limitations of the process as well as its strengths. Neither is common at this end of the market. The share price fall and the absence of guidance are not risks The share price fall is not evidence of a deteriorating business. The operating numbers improved on every line but gross margin through FY2026 while the shares fell about 46 per cent over the twelve months to 21 September 2026. Those two facts sit together and only the operating performance is about the company. The absence of formal FY2027 guidance is not a warning signal. AML3D has never issued numerical revenue guidance. A company that has not given guidance before is not withholding it now. 15 Samso Concluding Comments AML3D is a small Australian manufacturer that has done something unusual. It has taken a well-understood industrial process, certified it, and sold it to the United States Navy at a moment when the Navy has a shortage its existing supply chain has not solved. It has done that without raising equity for nearly two years, and it has just posted its first EBITDA-positive half. The market has marked the shares down about 46 per cent over the twelve months to 21 September 2026. Samso's view is that both can be true at once, and that the reason is that AML3D's disclosures do not yet show whether an installed ARCEMY generates revenue after the sale. Whether the company can win contracts is no longer the open question. It has won them and the record is in section 5. First, the question is whether an installed base of ARCEMY systems generates anything after the sale. The FY2026 accounts answer part of it and the answer is not the flattering one. Machines went from 48 per cent of revenue to 75 per cent, and printing parts fell from 40 per cent to 23 per cent. The record year was machine-led, and the repeatable line did not grow with it. AML3D still does not report feedstock revenue or utilisation. Two customers have come back and bought more, and in September 2026 one of them came back for parts rather than machines. That last point is the one to watch, because it is the first move in the right direction on the line that matters. Second, the phrase non-safety-critical is AML3D's and it has been the most honest measure of where the business sits. Printing replacement parts that nobody else can supply, for boats whose original manufacturers are gone, is a real service to a customer with a real problem, and it is how a supplier earns the right to be asked about harder parts. The distance between that and what most people picture when they read US Navy submarine components is where the value in this company sits. The September 2026 order is the first evidence of that distance closing. It is a production order rather than a prototype, it is in an alloy AML3D says it has taken through qualification, and it does not carry the qualifier the earlier orders carried. It is also A$0.5 million, which is small. Both of those are true and a reader should hold them together. Third, the competitive position is more contested than the announcements suggest. The same programme office that funds AML3D funded Lincoln Electric for the same purpose in September 2025, and Lincoln Electric is a very much larger welding company with a US manufacturing base of its own. Navies fund more than one supplier on purpose, so none of this is fatal. It does mean AML3D is not the only supplier the programme is backing for this work. Fourth, the register deserves more attention than it gets. There is one substantial holder, and that holder is a retail wrap platform. There is no institution, no strategic industry holder and no director in the top twenty, and of 6,500 shareholders a quarter hold less than a marketable parcel. A company whose entire story is a relationship with the US Navy has attracted no strategic holder from that world. Samso's view is that this helps explain both the thin coverage and the muted reaction to a good result, and that it is a fair thing for a prospective holder to weigh. Finally, the balance sheet is the part of this story that is currently comfortable and could stop being. A$26.67 million against a falling operating burn is a strong position. A$26.67 million against a falling operating burn and a A$17 million capital commitment is a decision, and the company has made it. If the demand arrives to fill the capacity, that decision looks correct in FY2028. If it does not, AML3D will be raising money with a smaller cash balance than it has now, and its two prior raisings were struck at a 17.4 per cent discount and at a price of A$0.05. What AML3D has that most of its peers do not is a customer with a budget and a shortage. What it does not yet have is proof that the relationship compounds. FY2027 is the year that starts to answer that. The A$16.8 million already contracted has to be delivered, the four Newport News systems have to be commissioned in the March 2027 quarter, and the three copper-nickel components have to be delivered, tested and commissioned by the end of that same quarter. Those are checkable events with dates on them. The Samso Call on AML3D is Watch and DYOR. This is a company doing real work for a real customer, at a point where its numbers have turned and its share price has not. It is also a company whose thesis depends on one programme, one customer relationship and a qualification step it has not yet taken. That combination is worth watching, and anyone who acts on it should do their own research, starting with the phrase AML3D itself uses about the parts it makes, non-safety-critical. 16 References and Sources Every source used in this workup is listed below with its date. Each entry carries an identifier, and the same identifier appears in the body at the point that source is used, so any number, quotation or finding here can be traced back to the document behind it in one step. [R1] AML3D Limited, AML3D Delivers Record FY2026 Revenue and Reports H2 Profit , ASX release, 31 August 2026. [R2] Daily closing price data for AL3, retrieved 21 September 2026. Cross-checked at two dates against an independent market data source. [R3] AML3D Limited, AML3D signs initial production parts order for US Navy submarines , ASX release, 17 September 2026. [R4] AML3D Limited, WAM technology and ARCEMY product pages, aml3d.com/technology and aml3d.com/arcemy, retrieved 19 September 2026. [R5] AML3D Limited, Investor Presentation , lodged 27 February 2026. [R6] Williams, S. W., Martina, F., Addison, A. C., Ding, J., Pardal, G. and Colegrove, P., “Wire + Arc Additive Manufacturing”, Materials Science and Technology , 2016, volume 32, number 7, pages 641 to 647. [R7] AML3D Limited, FY2025 Annual Report , lodged 18 August 2025. [R8] AML3D Limited, $9.9M ARCEMY X Order from US Military Shipbuilder: HII-NNS , ASX release, 17 March 2026. [R9] Congressional Research Service, report to Congress on the Virginia-class submarine programme and AUKUS Pillar 1, 26 January 2026. [R10] US Navy Maritime Industrial Base Program, General Dynamics Electric Boat and Lincoln Electric, joint announcement on additive manufacturing for submarine production, 30 September 2025. [R11] USNI News, Navy Awards BlueForge Alliance $951M Contract for ‘Uplifting’ U.S. Sub Base , 10 September 2024. [R12] AML3D Limited, MLA Expands AML3D’s Delivery to US Navy via BFA , ASX release, 11 September 2024. [R13] AML3D Limited, US Navy Issues AML3D with Letter of Intent , ASX release, 6 July 2025. [R14] AML3D Limited, First ARCEMY Systems Operational at Largest U.S. Military Shipbuilder , ASX release, 19 June 2026. [R15] ABC News, report on the first AUKUS-specific US Navy contract award to General Dynamics Electric Boat, April 2026. [R16] Naval News, Landmark U.S. Budget Request Includes $65.8 Billion for Navy Shipbuilding , 10 April 2026, and Breaking Defense, report on Australia’s May 2026 defence budget. [R17] AML3D Limited, Order Received for Portable ARCEMY System from Austal USA , 21 July 2025. AML3D Receives Order from Largest Shipbuilder in USA, HII-NNS , 20 October 2025. AML3D Receives ARCEMY X Order from Defence & Industry Supplier , 18 November 2025. Earlier system orders as dated in Table 2. [R18] AML3D Limited, BlueForge Alliance parts, feedstock and alloy qualification releases as dated in Table 3, 2023 to 2026, including AML3D Receives Order for Submarine Parts , 16 August 2023, and AML3D Order for US Navy Submarine Parts , 26 March 2026. [R19] AML3D Limited, DNV Accreditation Received to Manufacture Marine Parts , 3 August 2022, and AML3D Soars to New Heights with AS 9100D , 2 April 2024. [R20] AML3D Limited, Industry Standards page, aml3d.com/industries/industry-standards, retrieved 19 September 2026. [R21] Sales, A., Khanna, A., Hughes, J., Yin, L. and Kotousov, A., “Fatigue Crack Growth Rates and Crack Tip Opening Loads in CT Specimens Made of SDSS and Manufactured Using WAAM”, Materials , 2024, volume 17, article 1842. [R22] AML3D Limited, Super Duplex Stainless Steel Shows Promising Fatigue Life , 10 May 2024. [R23] AML3D Limited, Appendix 4C quarterly activities and cash flow reports, lodged 27 April 2026 and 27 July 2026. [R24] AML3D Limited, half-year report and accounts for the six months to 31 December 2025, lodged 27 February 2026. [R25] AML3D Limited, 2026 Annual Report to shareholders , lodged 31 August 2026. [R26] AML3D Limited, Senior US Navy Program Lead Appointed to Board of AML3D USA , ASX release, 26 June 2025. [R27] Titomic Limited, Appendix 4D and half-year financial report for the six months to 30 June 2026, lodged 1 September 2026. [R28] Amaero Inc, FY2026 results materials and redomicile announcements, June to August 2026, and Titomic Limited redomicile disclosures, 2026. [R29] Desktop Metal Chapter 11 filing of 28 July 2025 and delisting of 14 April 2025, Nano Dimension’s completion of the Markforged acquisition on 25 April 2025, and Nikon’s February 2026 write-down against SLM Solutions, as reported in the additive manufacturing trade press. [R30] 3D Systems Corporation, second quarter 2026 results announcement, 3 August 2026. [R31] DEEP Manufacturing DNV Approval of Manufacture announcement, September 2025, and Houston facility launch, May 2026. Horizon Manufacturing Technologies and Relativity Space published material. Sciaky EBAM published deposition rates. GEFERTEC arc series specifications. MX3D funding announcement. All retrieved 19 September 2026. 17 Disclaimer The information contained on this website is the writer's personal opinion and is provided to you for information only and is not intended to or nor will it create/induce the creation of any binding legal relations. There may be a conflict of interest present with commercial arrangements with companies and/or stock held. Samso or an associate may receive a commission for funds raised. The information or opinions provided herein do not constitute investment advice, an offer or solicitation to subscribe for, purchase or sell the investment product(s) mentioned herein. It does not take into consideration, nor have any regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation, risk profile, tax position and particular, or unique needs and constraints. Accordingly, no warranty whatsoever is given, and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss arising, whether directly or indirectly as a result of this information. Investments are subject to investment risks, including possible loss of the principal amount invested. The value of the product and the income from them may fall as well as rise. You may wish to seek advice from an independent financial adviser before committing to purchase or invest in the investment product(s) mentioned herein. If you choose not to do so, you should consider whether the investment product(s) mentioned herein are suitable for you. The writer will not, in any event, be liable to you for any direct/indirect or any other damages of any kind arising from or in connection with your reliance on any information in and/or materials appended herein. The information and/or materials are provided "as is" without warranty of any kind, either express or implied. In particular, no warranty regarding accuracy or fitness for a purpose is given in connection with such information and materials. The Samso Way – Seek the Research Here at Samso, we pride ourselves on delivering content for investors that is independent and informed by over three decades of experience in the industry. Our content is well-researched and is only created if I see merit in discussing the company's story. Our mission is simple. Cut through the noise and spotlight what matters. Genuine stories, grounded insights, and real opportunity. Investors can explore our four core platforms: Coffee with Samso Samso Insights Samso News Samso Research There may be numerous paths to success in investing, but the common thread among successful individuals is that they remain committed to making informed decisions. Equip yourself with the right knowledge and tools, and you will be well on your way to achieving your financial goals. The Samso Philosophy: Stay curious. Stay sharp. And remember, digging deeper always uncovers the real value. Happy Investing, and the only four-letter word you need to know is DYOR. Disclaimer This Samso Research Workup is independent research commentary for general information only. Nothing in this document is financial product advice, and it does not take into account any reader's objectives, financial situation or needs. Figures are drawn from public sources believed reliable at the stated dates but are not guaranteed; market-sensitive numbers change daily. Samso or associated parties may hold positions in, or have commercial arrangements with, companies mentioned. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions. Read full Disclaimer. About Samso Samso is a trusted platform that equips dedicated investors with up-to-date industry knowledge and insights from top CEOs and thought leaders. Samso Research | www.samso.com.au | An Investor Lens on ASX-Listed Companies

What is the problem with vanadium? There is a rush for the product, but the market does not seem to be giving the vanadium companies any slack. We all know that it’s a complex element and many a company have gone bust trying to master it. We also know about its special properties that are luring young and old to invest and take that punt hoping for a big payday. Over two centuries have passed since the Spanish scientist Andres Manuel del Rio discovered vanadium in Mexico. Despite this, we are only now understanding the mineral’s vast potential. If vanadium is known for anything, it’s steel. Added in small quantities – as little as 0.15% – vanadium is proven to double the strength of the alloy. Henry Ford was one of the first exponents of the metal, using it to strengthen the Model T – the car credited with introducing the automotive industry to the masses in the early 1900s. Its the unique properties of vanadium that is driving the excitement at the moment. What is Vanadium? According to Wikipedia, Vanadium is a chemical element with symbol V and atomic number 23. It is a hard, silvery-grey, ductile, and malleable transition metal. The elemental metal is rarely found in nature, but once isolated artificially, the formation of an oxide layer (passivation) somewhat stabilizes the free metal against further oxidation. Andrés Manuel del Río discovered compounds of vanadium in 1801 in Mexico by analyzing a new lead-bearing mineral he called “brown lead”, and presumed its qualities were due to the presence of a new element, which he named erythronium (derived from Greek for “red”) since, upon heating, most of the salts turned red. Four years later, however, he was (erroneously) convinced by other scientists that erythronium was identical to chromium. Chlorides of vanadium were generated in 1830 by Nils Gabriel Sefström who thereby proved that a new element was involved, which he named “vanadium” after the Scandinavian goddess of beauty and fertility, Vanadís (Freyja). Both names were attributed to the wide range of colors found in vanadium compounds. Del Rio’s lead mineral was later renamed vanadinite for its vanadium content. In 1867 Henry Enfield Roscoe obtained the pure element. Vanadium is the 20th most abundant mineral in the earth crust and occurs naturally in about 65 different minerals. The metallic vanadium is rare and is known as the mineral vanadium, native vanadium. Wikipedia has a pretty substantial write up on its uses and other factors. One should contribute and keep it free :-). Traditional uses of Vanadium. About 90% of vanadium is used to produce speciality steel alloys. Vanadium pentoxide is a catalyst for the production of sulfuric acid. Uses in the Renewable Sector. The recent rush to find vanadium stems from the introduction of vanadium flow batteries. As reported in altenergymag.com, these batteries allow intermittent energy supplies to be regulated from moment to moment. This dispatchable energy or dispatchable power enables the grid to balance the amount of energy going into wires. Vanadium flow batteries utilise vanadium’s unique characteristics for rechargeable energy storage, which is critical to renewable and dispatchable power systems. Research facilities around the world are investing in vanadium flow battery research and development to meet the projected global demand. The vanadium flow battery has virtually unlimited storage capacity with the ability to scale the batteries. As a result, the vanadium flow battery’s value to the emerging renewable energy technology sector is compelling for many utility companies and grid operators. Why is the Vanadium Flow Battery not as famous as the Lithium Battery? Currently, the Lithium Battery (LiB) are more efficient and hence more cost effective for the everyday household. The Vanadium Flow battery (VFB) close the efficiency gap with the larger storage capacities. However, at this stage of the technological race, the VFB is still at its infancy. Like the tungsten battery article that I wrote about in my previous blog, at this stage, the race is still favouring the LiB. Interestingly, when you look at the capacity of the VFB, I do see them doing well with the massive solar and wind farms. The way the battery works will be a great benefit in those cases, but I think the cost effectiveness is going to be a big issue. Research does show that these batteries are the most efficient in large capacity requirements. The VFB has up to 40% vanadium content, and this will make the battery vulnerable to price fluctuations. Imagine what the price of a Cobalt battery now if there was a Cobalt battery. LiB has already established a big stronghold on technology, and as always, this is going to be hard to change. No matter how good your technique is, once the mainstream players set their views, they are not going to change in a hurry. So what does that mean for the mineral resource fraternity? For those that have been following this sector, the lack of keen interest is becoming very frustrating. Many people would have remembered the Windimurra Vanadium project. The last proponents to take on this project was Atlantic, and that ended in tears. I believe that was around 2014. The project had a significant mineral resource. As quoted on the Atlantic website, the resource was over 235MT. They claimed to have highest quality ore and was building a plant as well. Recently there was news that the owners of the project are making a comeback with the rising interest in vanadium. This project had many issues, and the volatile vanadium price did not do them any favours. However, if my memory serves me well, the main problem was the chemistry and the issues in the plant. Whether it is a chemistry problem or a lack of management, one will never know. I remember talking to a few guys about this and they did say that chemistry was the issue. It was because of these issues that I have always maintained, if you have that large a resource and you cannot get the chemistry right, what hope would any company have without all those positive parameters. The guys who were in that industry would tell me that it is easier to work with another commodity than to try and work this one out :-). I am sure that this is now had many technological advances and such issues would have been overcome. Vanadium Companies on the ASX There is a good list of these companies listed on www.smallcap.com.au and it had a good summary of vanadium facts. I will admit that I have not followed them much because I feel that there is a gap in making the chemistry right. These boutique stocks are now taking a hiatus on the market, and like all things unique, it needs the market to be hot. Lithium and Cobalt stocks are a good example. Late last year, you could do no wrong, but now, they are not looking healthy. Even the ones that have a good story are having a hard time getting the market to get excited. As you can see in the share price charts that I have included, things are not happening. I have added the stocks that I have some knowledge about so please don’t think that I am favouring any particular companies. My Conclusions The vanadium Flow battery is new technology compared to the traditional Lithium variants. My thought is that the science behind the technology is very good. This battery can handle the fluctuation in energy within itself as if it has a living ecosystem. The fact that you have an ever-changing flow of reactions that is comfortably controlled by vanadium with its “living” oxidation states is critical. Lithium batteries have a tendency to surge and the technology required to manage that is not simple. This is why we don’t have a rush on electric aeroplanes. The imbalance use of charging and discharging in batteries promotes decay, and that is what these Vanadium batteries can overcome. I feel that in the long run, the VFB will become significant tools. I read in one article that the New York’s Metropolitan Transport Authority has signed a deal to test vanadium redox batteries. Researchers are developing a prototype that can store electricity generated overnight when the demand is low. The energy stored in the cell could then be used in the morning when the demand for electricity goes up, and this would reduce the amount of power needed during the day. The city would also save money on its electricity bills because power generated overnight costs less than during the day. In the case of the most widely used renewable energy source for everyday households, the solar panels, vanadium-based redox batteries could also help in to be more efficient. Solar panels produce the most electricity in the middle of the day, when residents are often at school or work and when the demand for electricity is low. Vanadium batteries could store this excess electricity and discharge it later in the evening when people are at home to use it. Cost efficiency of these batteries is now what holds it back. There is a company that makes a “mega-battery” that is as big as a car which sits on top of an office building in Manhattan skyscraper that is charged at night when electricity is cheap and discharge during the day to reduce the amount the building has to pat in daytime prices. So as you can see, in future, these batteries will be a big player. It is just a matter of time. Disclaimer The information or opinions provided herein do not constitute investment advice, an offer or solicitation to subscribe for, purchase or sell the investment product(s) mentioned herein. It does not take into consideration, nor have any regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation, risk profile, tax position and particular, or unique needs and constraints. Read full Disclaimer. www.samso.com.au If you find this article informative and useful, please help me share the information. I try and write about topics that are interesting and have the potential to be of investment value. It is not easy to find stories that fit those parameters. If you or your organisation see the benefit of what Samso is trying to achieve and have a need to share your journey, please contact me on noel.ong@samso.com.au. About Samso

Nanollose (ASX: NC6) is an ASX listed company that is trying to make Cellulose fibres from organic waste. Like me, you ask, what is cellulose fibres? In a simple chinaman explanation, cellulose fibres are fibres made of esters of cellulose which can be obtained from the bark, wood or leaves of plants, or plant-based material. These fibres are compound of hemicellulose and lignin, and different percentages of these components are responsible for different mechanical properties observed (source: Wikipedia). The main applications of cellulose fibres are in the textile industry, a chemical filter, and fibre-reinforcement composite, due to their similar properties to engineered fibres, being another option for biocomposites and polymer composites (source: Wikipedia). Manufactured cellulose fibres come from plants that are processed into a pulp and then extruded in the same ways that synthetic fibres like polyester or nylon are made. Rayon or viscose is one of the most common “manufactured” cellulose fibres, and it can be made from wood pulp (source: Wikipedia). A couple of weeks ago, I heard about Nanollose from a passing conversation. It intrigued me for a few days as this is something very different from my comfort zone so I started to look into the company. I have had a lot of interest in Hemp in the past and have done a couple of Insights on that topic so as I researched, the similarities started to appear. Hemp – A very Green Construction Product. Cannabinoids: Now I know what the fuss is all about…… The creation of natural fibre from the use of organic waste will fit into one of the “clean products” that the world is seeking. It is probably got a few hurdles to get over before full commercialisation, but it will be a good conversation with management for those people that are keen to find out more. I am sure you will be able to get all the contact details from www.nanollose.com. I spoke to Alfie Germano, the managing director, and he gave me a quick introduction to the industry. For me, it is a unique concept and one that I think could prove to be very lucrative. In December 2018, the company announced that they had created their first garment from their Rayon. The first garment was created from the conversion of organic waste. You can see the process in Figure 2. Simple in nature, but I am sure that is not entirely the case. However, this process would help with the environment. I know how bad the cotton industry is for the environment, so I welcome anything that can reduce that industry. I am already all for Hemp as an alternative to cotton. While researching this company, I also learnt about Rayon and the market. It is something that I would not have thought about even though I am wearing clothing all day. According to Wikipedia, Rayon is a manufactured fibre made from regenerated cellulose fibre. The many types and grades of rayon can imitate the feel and texture of natural fibres such as silk, wool, cotton, and linen. The types that resemble silk are often called artificial silk. Since rayon is manufactured from naturally occurring polymers, it is not considered to be synthetic[1]. Technically, the term synthetic fibre is reserved for fully synthetic fibres. In manufacturing terms, rayon is classified as “a fibre formed by regenerating natural materials into a usable form”. [2] Specific types of rayon include viscose, modal and lyocell, each of which differs in the manufacturing process and properties of the finished product. Rayon is made from purified cellulose, harvested primarily from wood pulp, which is chemically converted into a soluble compound. It is then dissolved and forced through a spinneret to produce filaments which are chemically solidified, resulting in fibres of nearly pure cellulose. Unless the chemicals are handled carefully, workers can be seriously harmed by the carbon disulfide used to manufacture most rayon. I find this topic very fascinating, and I guess Nanollose allows me to get involved in what is considered clean for our environment and has a large market. Rayon is a high growth market valued at US$16.3B in 2019 and growing at over 10%, according to Nanollose. Figure 3 below gives a summary of the composition fo the market. Nanollose has a facility in Indonesia where they are looking to source the waste of a coconut food product manufacturer. So systems are in place to move their plans forward in 2019. Corporately the share price for Nanollose has not been performing well but I think there is room for improvement. The investing market is always looking for something different I think with time and the right marketing, this could be a worthy product. I could go on for a while on this, but I think it is best to have a look for yourself and check it out. I can see several barriers for the company to reach its target. Acceptance, by the market, the endurance of the fibres for the garment industry, proving that the material has no adverse health considerations and the ability to sustain the competitive barrage from traditional fibres. All these thoughts may be overcome with time and endurance to stay in the game. I am thrilled to have found this topic, and it is worthwhile to do more research. Disclaimer The information or opinions provided herein do not constitute investment advice, an offer or solicitation to subscribe for, purchase or sell the investment product(s) mentioned herein. It does not take into consideration, nor have any regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation, risk profile, tax position and particular, or unique needs and constraints. Read full Disclaimer. www.samso.com.au If you find this article informative and useful, please help me share the information. I try and write about topics that are interesting and have the potential to be of investment value. It is not easy to find stories that fit those parameters. If you or your organisation see the benefit of what Samso is trying to achieve and have a need to share your journey, please contact me on noel.ong@samso.com.au. About Samso

On 31 December 2018, Doriemus PLC (ASX: DOR) announced that they had signed a binding agreement with Rey Resources Limited (ASX: REY) to obtain a 50% interest (plus operatorship) over the 5,058km² Western Australia onshore petroleum exploration permit block EP487. The statement by the Executive Chairman of Doriemus, David Lenigas mentioned that the first thing they want to do is get a consultant to look at how to incorporate the Fishbones Stimulation Technology. The Fishbones Stimulation Technology reportedly can help generate more profits and create efficient oil flow. In the very tight crude oil industry, any edge to allow efficient oil flow and make more money would be fantastic. What is this Fishbones Stimulation Technology? Fishbones is a provider of unique technology that has defined a new level of precision and efficiency in reservoir stimulation. Using a short pumping operation, numerous titanium tubes are extended from the mother bore to create long channels, delivering significantly improved reservoir productivity. Fishbones, like no other stimulation system available today, guarantees connectivity with your reservoir precisely where planned with the optimal use of valuable resources. The Inventor Fishbones Stimulation Technology was invented by Rune Freyer, a serial entrepreneur that holds many patents and patent applications. His vision was to deliver a shift change in completion method that creates vertical connectivity in the reservoir without the infrastructure, environmental impact and complexity of traditional fracturing treatments. Rune was the inventor, manager and owner of the successful Easywell company (swellpackers) until 2005, and is the Fishbones, principal shareholder. Reasons To Choose Fishbones Increase productivity by connecting the well to the reservoir with up to 300 laterals. Accelerate production by integrating stimulation in your drilling program. Avoid water or unwanted gas by predictable penetration and location of the laterals. Simplify logistics by using rig pumps and significantly fewer fluids. Accelerate progress by avoiding cementing, perforating, cleanouts, running frac strings and other operations. Reduce HSE exposure by reducing the number of operations and working hours. Reduce the environmental impact by reducing emissions and by using fewer fluids. Avoid flow back and disposal of fluid from hydraulic fracturing. Effective reservoir conductivity may be low due to layering or faulting. The layers or faults can be penetrated and drained by Fishbones with the mother bore not even penetrating the faults. Different intervals have different pressures and can be hard to effectively hydraulically stimulate. Fishbones allows you to stimulate zones with different pressure regimes. The Project The Derby Block occurs north of the Fitzroy Blocks and overlies the major road infrastructure in the region. It abuts the northern flank of the Fitzroy Trough and is considered prospective for both conventional oil on this northern flank as well as for significant accumulations of gas in the Laurel regional gas accumulation. REY currently holds a 100% interest in petroleum exploration permit EP487. The block is considered to be predominantly a Wet Laurel Basin Centred Gas play (“BCG”), which is regionally extensive throughout the Canning Basin, with major companies such as Mitsubishi and Buru Energy also having operations further along trend in the area. Existing infrastructure in the area is extensive due to the activities at Mitsubishi’s Valhalla and Asgard gas field operations. Oil Pricing In recent times, the price of oil has had a battering, and it seems that the start of 2019 has not made too much noise. This morning as I write, US Oil is at $45.44 which is slightly down from a recent high of about $47. Remember that the low $42 was around Christmas time 2018. All the recent news that I am hearing and reading seem to be indicating a run back up to $70 per barrel. The oil industry is similar to the iron ore miners in regards to the rush to be efficient in production. Efficient oil flow is critical in a pricing market such as what we are observing now. I remember the time when iron ore took a battering in 2009 with low prices and companies such as Rio Tinto started working on reducing production costs. Now, the iron ore miners are travelling comfortably with the cost of production in the low $20 per tonne (so I am told). I read that some of the oil producers are currently producing at $15/barrel to overcome the low oil pricing. I am suspecting that with all the depressing oil pricing, the use of the Fishbones Stimulation Technology will be helping those marginal wells to make more profits and have more efficient oil flow. How is the Industry? When you review the news in regards to the oil and gas industry, it is business as usual. Industry people are telling me that they are still going about their business but are looking at projects that are more attractive to investors. When you think about it, this makes perfect sense. I have been in the mineral exploration industry for the last 25+ years, and this is how the industry keeps chugging along. When the commodity price takes a turn for the worst, the participants of the industry keeps going. Things are tough currently, but there are a lot of talks of oil going back to the $70/barrel levels. What’s The Good News? Industry participants tell me that it is now increasingly harder to find oil. All the previous discoveries were easy targets. Exploration is getting expensive. All this talk sounds like supply is decreasing, but the big question is whether the increasing use of EV vehicles will make significant changes to the demand equation. In my opinion, this uncertainty is not a bad thing as this will move the price of oil up, for the short term anyway. Like all commodities, the cream of this industry has all been discovered. The Fishbones Stimulation Technology will bring online a lot of projects that were previously not considered. Will this increase future supply? I think not. The real supply player will be the US shale oil players and many people are proposing that they will create an oversupply issue. My call is that the shale oil players will affect supply over time. However, I don’t think it will change the oil price as the price will hang around the sub $100 range even with the Oil Shale players. I can’t see it going over the $100+ levels. Corporate Information REY Market Capitalisation: 53M (12/2018) Shares Outstanding: 212.4M (06/2018) Top 20 Shareholding: 92.7% (2018) DOR Market Capitalisation: 4M (12/2018) Shares Outstanding: 50.4M (06/2018) Top 20 Shareholding: 57.9% (2017) This announcement is exciting as DOR which is spending $1M to get 50% of the “production field” will add significant value to the share price. REY, on the other hand, is not going to have much action as its Top 20 shareholders own 92.7%. It appears to be a Chinese company, and if it is, I am sure that the entire 92.7% holding will be only shared with a handful of non-related entities. It will be tough for anyone to make shareholders get value with that holding percentage. This issue is why I believe that the play is for DOR and with a market cap of 4M, this has to be a great buy. I had a look at the market depth, and the issue will be trying to get a meaningful amount of shares. DOR has a lot of upsides as the Executive Chairman is David Lenigas. David has had a lot of successful corporate activities and the most recent is that of Artemis Resources Limited (ASX: ARV). David is also the Executive Chairman of Artemis Resources Limited (ASX: ARV), Southern Hemisphere Mining Limited (ASX: SUH) and Clancy Exploration Limited (ASX: CLY). That is all that I know. In terms of a “good buy”, I am tempted to go for a punt with DOR. I am currently not a shareholder, but I am going to be following this program. I have invested in one other oil and gas play, and that was Arc Energy in the early 2000s. That was a ride from 11c to $1.20. The story back then was a similar scenario. It was a new story to find oil in the Perth Basin (if I am correct). My “mentor” Geoff Donahue explained to me how the project was going to work and suggested I take a position. That was the best decision. Conclusion Investors should start looking at these technological advances that can make previous sub-standard oil fields profitable. There will be many ASX listed companies such as Doriemus PLC that will benefit from such technology. Previously there was the fracking technology, but this is another advancement. In my opinion, this kind of companies using technology such as the Fishbone Stimulation Technology will make their shareholders very happy. Currently, the ASX is very stagnant, especially within the small-cap resource/oil and gas sector. My thought is that investors should look out for parameters that are generally not on their lists of must-have in a company. I am sure with the depressed oil price, those companies that are in the oil and gas sector will be looking for any edge they can find. Whether DOR makes this venture work is all in a crystal ball at the moment, but the main point of this discussion is the introduction of the Fishbones Stimulation Technology. Disclaimer The information or opinions provided herein do not constitute investment advice, an offer or solicitation to subscribe for, purchase or sell the investment product(s) mentioned herein. It does not take into consideration, nor have any regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation, risk profile, tax position and particular, or unique needs and constraints. Read full Disclaimer. www.samso.com.au If you find this article informative and useful, please help me share the information. I try and write about topics that are interesting and have the potential to be of investment value. It is not easy to find stories that fit those parameters. If you or your organisation see the benefit of what Samso is trying to achieve and have a need to share your journey, please contact me on noel.ong@samso.com.au. About Samso

Originally posted on Smart Money Gains Earlier this month Australian Gold producer St. Barbara ( ASX: SBM ) announced it is acquiring 100% of Canadian gold producer Atlantic Gold ( CSE: AGB ) in a deal valued at $802 million. St Barbara’s offer represents a 41.1% premium to Atlantic’s closing share price on the day of the announcement. This deal comes after Australia’s largest gold company Newcrest Mining purchased close to a billion-dollar stake in Imperial Metals earlier this year. Trends suggest that other Australian companies will be looking at purchasing Canadian assets in the near future. The valuation gap between Australian and Canadian producers is projected to lead to consolidation for mid-tier miners. BMO Capital Markets analyst Brian Quast notes that other potential acquirers could include New Gold (TSX: NGD); Pretium Resources (NYSE: PVG); TMAC Resources (TSX: TMR) and Wesdome Gold Mines (TSX: WDO). Atlantic Gold Company Overview Atlantic Gold began commercial gold production in the Moose River Consolidated mining complex a year ago. The operation consists of two open-pit gold deposits that produced over 90,000 ounces of gold at the low all sustaining cost of C$731 per ounce. The company is awaiting a mining permit for a nearby project and is also exploring other areas of their land holdings. Nova Scotia Gold Mining Gold mining has been a big part of this Canadian Province’s economy. To date, over a million ounces of gold have been produced in the province since mining began in 1861. So far there have been 65 historic gold districts hosting past mining operations. Atlantic Gold’s Neighbour has a massive land position Meguma Gold has extensive land holdings adjacent to Atlantic Gold and that leads gold analysts to believe that there is significant gold content at their properties. With Atlantic producing MegumaGold can expect a ton of appetite for their assets as their exploration program moves forward. This map puts it all in perspective….. MegumaGold Corp. CSE: NSAU OTC: NSAUF FWB: 2CM2 Market Cap: C$13M Shares issued: 96,530,640 The company recently announced promising results from ongoing exploration work including one sample that graded as high as 49.8 grams per ton Au. These samples came from waste rock piles associated with previous mining and certainly confirm gold mineralization. It seems that they have found the location of a gold vein and further work should help uncover more details as to the magnitude of the discovery. Meguma is going to be commencing a drilling program that is designed to confirm, expand and reinterpret the known mineralization on this property. The company has sufficient capital to continue its drill program and their 179,280-hectare land position and 11,147 mineral claims should surely lead to some great findings in the near future. Bottom Line Atlantic Gold has been one of the biggest success stories in Canadian gold mining this year. The company saw it’s share price surged 73% YTD. This acquisition is putting MegumaGold in the spotlight due to the close proximity of the projects. With such a massive land position and experience gold mining veterans MegumaGold has the potential to be the next Atlantic Gold within a few years. Disclaimer The information or opinions provided herein do not constitute investment advice, an offer or solicitation to subscribe for, purchase or sell the investment product(s) mentioned herein. It does not take into consideration, nor have any regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation, risk profile, tax position and particular, or unique needs and constraints. Read full Disclaimer. www.samso.com.au If you find this article informative and useful, please help me share the information. I try and write about topics that are interesting and have the potential to be of investment value. It is not easy to find stories that fit those parameters. If you or your organisation see the benefit of what Samso is trying to achieve and have a need to share your journey, please contact me on noel.ong@samso.com.au. About Samso

Pilbara Minerals Limited ( ASX: PLS) was the flag bearer of the lithium rush. In 2018, this rush took a backward step and there are now many unhappy shareholders. I remember in 2017, the market could not get enough of the commodity. Then the Cobalt hype came in, and that made the market super hot. After all the commotion, there is a reason why the market has gone into hibernation, and I don’t think its got anything to do with a lack of demand. I would describe the latest woes in lithium pricing as a hangover that had to happen. In the run-up to the end of 2017, it was all about the coming of the lithium revolution — the revelation to the market about the demand and the lack of supply. There was also the belief that there was a supply issue. When all the dust settles, I believe that my thoughts and that of the market will be consistent. I believe that this Lithium Hype will finalise at a lower price that is economical to users and buyers. The high prices cannot be sustained and will come down to a level that will work for all participants. Let’s work out what is what first. Before we get into all the details, let’s try and distinguish the different sources of lithium. The hard rock stuff is more accessible to mine and process but is generally more expensive. When the brine guys sort themselves out, they will take over as the leading supplier of lithium. Hard Rock Lithium The primary and more commonly understood types are what is called the hard rock ore. The hard rock lithium comes from pegmatites which are bodies of rock that contain very incompatible elements. These elements are those that nobody wants on their team, so they are the last to form and concentrate within these rock units. They are mainly found in and around granitic rocks as their chemistry is consistent of these rock types. One of the significant characteristics of pegmatites is the vast crystal nature of the minerals. As pegmatites are effective a large quartz vein but with more elements, when the fluids cool, the process of formation is allowed to cool slowly and form larger crystals. See the photo of a spodumene bearing pegmatite below. What makes an excellent hard rock lithium source: Distributed homogeneously throughout the Earth’s crust; Lithium-Cesium-Tantalum pegmatites form in orogenic hinterlands as products of plate convergence; First-order criteria are an orogenic hinterland setting, appropriate regional metamorphic grades, and the presence of evolved granites and common granitic pegmatites; Neither lithium-cesium-tantalum pegmatites nor their parental granites are likely to cause serious environmental concerns; Traditional mining through movement and crushing of ore; Economic grades are between 1% and 2% LiO2; (source: www.tsxmedia.com) Lithium Brines Lithium brines just salt lakes with a high proportion of the lithium element in the solution. The mining process is a combination of concentration and evaporation. There is no shortage of these lakes, but as usual, there are only a few that will have a geological and economic advantage. The mining process is straightforward. Brine, typically carrying 200 to 1,400 milligrams per litre (mg/l) Li, is pumped to the surface and concentrated by evaporation in a succession of artificial ponds, each one in the chain having a greater Li concentration. After a few months to about a year, depending on climate, a concentrate of 1 to 2 per cent Li is further processed in a chemical plant to yield various end products, such as lithium carbonate and lithium metal. What makes a good Lithium Brine: arid climate; closed basin containing a playa or salar; tectonically driven subsidence; associated igneous or geothermal activity; suitable lithium source-rocks; one or more adequate aquifers; and sufficient time to concentrate a brine, economically 1 to 2 per cent LiO² achieved over time and evaporation, then considered economical for processing (source: www.tsxmedia.com) So what happened in 2018? In 2018, it was all about the realisation that lithium is not a super commodity, it was not a commodity that is super-rare. It is like any other commodity. This “light-bulb” moment occurred for the cobalt and REE rush as well, and every other “super-commodity rush” that investors seem to think exists in the marketplace. I am the last person to call myself a market expert, but it is strange that punters talk about reserves and resources when evaluating the stock while it runs from 2c to 55c or dollars? How is that part of a value proposition? Is it worth 2c or 55c a share or $2 per share :-)? When the stock comes back, they call it a miscarriage of justice and say management sucks. How did the management go from Heros to Donkeys over the short space of time? There is no doubt that there is more demand with the EV story but the hype will also back to something that makes economic sense. It cannot sustain the sky-high pricing. If you look at the graphs below, one can see a trend of decreasing price over the 2018 period. If you look at the price chart for Lithium, Cobalt and Nickel, you can see that they all share the same trend. More apparent for Lithium and Cobalt. I am a Nickel and Copper bull so I am a bit surprised with Nickel coming back. As much as I follow the commodities, I was very surprised to see cobalt come back the way it did. Interestingly, I was not that surprised with lithium coming back. What happened to the stocks? When you look at the major players in the industry, they are all in the same place. I like to put the lithium companies into three categories, Producers Resource Explorer In my opinion, there is no need to look at the explorers anymore as they are too late. In reality, anything that has not been discovered or re-marketed is probably not worth looking at as the ship has well and truly sailed. At this stage, the hard rock resources that are not developed or are near development may find themselves a steep hill too hard to climb. For those resources, I do think that if the brine resources come into play, they are going to struggle to make money. Looking at the charts below, one can see the consistent run to a high and all at the same time came back over the year. In my opinion, I think there is only a need to look a the top players in the sector. There is no need to discuss the lower level companies. The market is now maturing so it is all about supply now. Competitors are coming up, and the sooner the company deliver their product, the better. Pilbara Minerals Limited (ASX: PLS) – The first and most well known. Market Capitalisation: 1.23B Outstanding Shares: 1.744B (06/2018) Top 20 Shareholders: 48.1% When you look at the chart above, isn’t that just a very good looking chart? Lately, when it reached the 60c mark, I was telling people that this has to be a good buy. However, as I looked at all the participants in the lithium sector, they all had the same trend. You could be forgiven to have felt all your Christmases had come at the same time. To me, PLS is the one that everyone compares to and they are the first to have made Western Australia a lithium region. I know that Greenbushes and Wogina are big players too but they were really a Tantalum play. Their unique geology is very good. I think they produced up to 60% of the world’s tantalum and now they are a big lithium supplier as well. I have not looked at the geology throughly but I am sure their grades are good too. There is not much to write about PLS that is not known in the public space. I just wanted to highlight the intersection to highlight why as a miner. I don’t think there is a problem with the mine, its all about the market and how the market is repositioning itself. You cant help to find comparisons in the industry. The last one is the iron ore price going down to $40 and then it ran up to $100+ in six months. Now, we are seeing the decoupling of the iron ore pricing with premium ore getting a higher pricing. In my opinion, once you have a good supply, such as the likes of PLS, all you have to wait for is the market to recalibrate. What is the future for the Lithium sector? I think the price of lithium will come back in 2019 and 2020. It probably won’t be as high as before, and if the brine players are successful, it will be lower. The slow down in China is making a dent in the hopes of bulls but I think with patience, these bulls will be proven correct. Fortunately, this slowdown in China has been happening for a few years and it will not have a dramatic end. The Caixin China General manufacturing PMI fell short of expectations in November and may have spooked the markets in general but as you can see the depressing commodity pricing (in the charts above) has been showing this slow down for a long time. The figure below also highlights that there has been a slow and steady decline all 2018 in manufacturing. The dark horse on the market will be the shadow banking issue that is happening in China. This shadow banking issue has got to be the most crucial aspect of the world market as if this was in any other country other than China, the financial market would have felt its wrath a few years ago. As it is a China issue, the Chinese government is orchestrating a soft landing which is probably a good thing for everyone. Xi Jinping How is this done? Why was Xi Jinping able to get his way? Well, my opinion the answer to the two questions comes from the doings of the past government. What I mean is that the last government was too busy pocketing money to care about the consequence. Hence when Xi Jinping came into power and “fixed it’, he was able to curtail any objections by using the “country first’ card and anyone that had not been asked to stay at home indefinitely, would not be speaking loudly. Hence, wielding a big stick, Xi Jinping was able to control the masses and he inevitably created the path for a soft landing. In regards to the Lithium pricing, it is these happenings that give me comfort in saying that lithium will rebound with the continued improvement in the Chinese market. Solid State Batteries This battery will stabilise the lithium market as this new form of cells use less of the other component, nickel and cobalt and uses more lithium. The solid-state battery replaces the liquid or polymer electrolyte found in current lithium batteries with a solid. Saying that this is not proven technology as yet. There are lots of research making this happen it is very likely that this will happen. There is a lot of money being spent in this area and that will probably mean that the technology will make it happen. Benefits of solid-state batteries, smaller higher capacity and allow faster charging cheaper non-flammable – which is very important for car makers and the electric aeroplane sector. A US company, Saki3, has announced that they can make a solid state battery that has twice as much density and at one-fifth the cost. Currently, Panasonic makes Tesla’s battery at %500 a kilowatt-hour. Sakti3 claim it can get the cost of 4100 a kilowatt-hour by the end of the decade. Interestingly. This private company was bought by the Dyson group who is on the path to building its own electric vehicles. Magnis Energy Technology Limited (ASX: MNS) Currently, there is one company in Australia that I found which seems to be in this space. Magnis Energy Technology (ASX: MNS) is the company that has jumped on this sector. I don’t know this company too much, but I remember them as a graphite story related company. I stumbled onto their story while researching for this blog. The chart fits the lithium story I guess. Market Capitalisation: 180M Outstanding Shares: 572.9M (06/2018) Top 20 shareholders: 39.8% What is the Big Issue with Solid State Batteries? As mentioned earlier, in 2015, Dyson (vacuum cleaner Dyson) invested 90M for the US start-up Sakti3 to secure their solid-state battery technology. Recently, Dyson spent an additional 200M pound in August 2018 to set up six test driving tracks for their yet to be built electric vehicles. There are already 400 employees in this automotive team which is in a site that is 17km in length. What is interesting is that nearly a billion pounds of investment went into this battery sector alone. So this industry is not going anywhere. What does this mean? Well, companies such as Pilbara Minerals is suddenly looking cheap as they are the only one, apart from Galaxy Resources looking to be a real lithium supplier. Mineral Resources is also another heavyweight slowly moving in with the Mount Marion project. By the way, they also own 8% of Pilbara Minerals. Looking at the investments that are going into this product, it seems to me that the lithium sector is endorsing this path for the future of EV vehicles or EV products. The traditional lithium batteries are also a big hindrance in the electric aircraft sector. The fact that the current Li-battery has a habit of power surging, it is a big issue for those working in the electric aeroplane space. Conclusion I think this is such a well known topic that there is nothing new that anyone could come up with at this stage. What I tried to highlight is that the Lithium market is down now but I feel very comfortable in saying that the upside is not too far away. I remember a wise man told me once that in any price surge, you should never chase but let it come back to a level where the market is trying to figure things out. Once that happens, the market will take a direction depending on its assessment of the product. I feel that we are at that point. I think since the rush on the lithium market, there have only been one or two shipments of concentrates from Australia. Galaxy Resources Limited (ASX: GXY) was an early player and I do not include them in that list. I remember working for them in 2008 and the lithium rush was nothing compared to what we have experienced in the last 2-3 years. I am not a shareholder in any of the companies listed but for those who have invested in the “blue” lithium stocks, I think there are good times ahead. There will be alternatives ( Hydrogen Cell, Tungsten and Vanadium) as I have written before, but there are no arguments that the lithium battery has the head start and looks like the volume may keep the competitors behind the pack. Disclaimer The information or opinions provided herein do not constitute investment advice, an offer or solicitation to subscribe for, purchase or sell the investment product(s) mentioned herein. It does not take into consideration, nor have any regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation, risk profile, tax position and particular, or unique needs and constraints. Read full Disclaimer. www.samso.com.au If you find this article informative and useful, please help me share the information. I try and write about topics that are interesting and have the potential to be of investment value. It is not easy to find stories that fit those parameters. If you or your organisation see the benefit of what Samso is trying to achieve and have a need to share your journey, please contact me on noel.ong@samso.com.au. About Samso

The Davyhurst Project is located approximately 120 km north west of Kalgoorlie within the North Eastern Goldfields of Western Australia. This large scale project comprises 112 mineral tenements totalling approximately 1,336 square kilometres. This coverage provides approximately 200 strike kilometres of greenstone sequences prospective for gold as well as sulphide nickel and base metal mineralisation. The Company is focused on unlocking significant value from the company’s strategic and prospective landholding. To achieve this, the Company will target resource development activities at five advanced projects, namely Riverina, Waihi, Siberia, Callion and Golden Eagle. This work aims to deliver a robust Definitive Feasibility Study to underpin the future development of Davyhurst. The project has a 1.2 Mtpa conventional CIP processing facility with associated infrastructure, including an extensive road network, 160 man camp, administration & workshops buildings and a large bore field. The tenement package is accessed from Kalgoorlie by a series of well-formed, unsealed shire roads and haulage roads. Airstrips are located at Davyhurst (Callion) and Mt Ida (Bottle Creek). ” — Eastern Goldfields Monarch Gold Mining Company Limited (No longer trading) consolidated the project around 2008. Since the consolidation, there has not been any work done in the area due to the corporate activities and the insolvency of entities involved. In 2008, I was working for a private company doing some iron ore work, and I learnt that Monarch was going to end up in tears as there were issues with the project. It was not a matter of not having the gold. It was more a fact that the extraction was not simple, and it may have something to do with the chemistry or the structure of the ore bodies. I cannot recall if it was specific to the gold being refractory or some issues with copper, or some structural complexity within the orebody, like Blackham Resources Limited (ASX: BLK) in Wiluna. Anyway, the conclusion was that the projects would struggle. Don’t get me wrong. I am not saying this is a lemon project. I am a firm believer that lemons if used appropriately, can be used to make lemonade. And we all love lemonade. You have to remember that around that time, gold was still around the sub $1000 mark and we were almost on parity with the USD. Mining services cost were at an all-time high. Iron ore was all the buzz, and nothing outside that sector was exciting. I remembered in 2008, Silverlake was putting out great news, and there was no traction. Gold was not a flavour of the month. The once vibrant town of Kalgoorlie was almost a ghost town. Diggers and Dealers were just acceptable. In fact, at that time, attendance numbers were not very attractive. So funding and market interest for gold projects were not high on the agenda. The Resource There is no doubt about the potential of the project. As you can see in the table below that was printed in the Eastern Goldfields website, there is ample gold in the ground. The grade is also decent compared to what is out there in the market. These days, anything above 2g/t is excellent. It will be interesting what the new guys will do with the project. What don’t I like? As an eternal optimist, there is nothing currently that I don’t like. I am assuming that the new management has seen what has not worked and had put contingencies in place so as to not make the same mistakes. The bad news around Eastern Goldfield’s demise is a sad state affair for the investors, but a repeat of the same ways of operation would be the single worst factor for the new entity. Geologically, there are apparent issues, but with technology and the market changing so fast in the last decade, I don’t think there are any deal breakers. There will be some projects that don’t stack up but the key for me here is adequate funding. I am assuming that the money raised had a fantastic plan — a new idea that has taken into account price movements and technical hurdles. As I mentioned previously, there is a big difference in the market sentiment now as compared to 2008. Like the diagram below, as in the movie, The Raiders of the Lost Ark, let’s make sure there are no surprises. What is of concern would be the significant tenement commitment to the Mines Department. I would think that cost would be running into the millions of dollars. Raising AUD23M does not seem to be a lot of money if you take all this cost of administration into consideration. OPEX may appear to be on the light side. The high wages that seem to be synonymous within this industry to the top management is one that I have always found hard to comprehend. Company management teams are customarily incentivised with lots of performance share and options, but yet they are paid high wages. What do I like? I like the fact that there is a significant strike length and you have mineralisation throughout the project. When there is smoke, there is fire. This phrase is my favourite when looking for a deposit in the mineral resource industry. For nearly 20 years, this substantial tenement holding that has not had any exploration or mining activities. You would view that as a good thing. It is as close to virgin exploration land as you can get today. In terms of exploration, one always look at what may be left undiscovered or unexplored. Look at Bellevue Gold Mines (ASX: BGL), Northern Star Resources Limited (ASX: NST) at Kundana, Acacia with Higginsville and the list goes on. They went and found significant deposits that were not looked at, or not given the funding to look at in the past. I have learned over time that miners don’t venture too far out of their operations as they need to concentrate on what they have. There is limited exploration, and in the 19980s and 1990s when many small producers were in the sector, there was just not enough capital to be distributed to ensure proper near mine exploration. This lead to future opportunities for new players in the market. I am not sure of the real factors that lead to the downfall of Eastern Goldfields, but many would suspect management. While this may be true, in many cases, a lack of funding can lead to poor management decisions not due to ignorance but due to a need for e=relocation of funds. Hence, now that the dust has settled and all the bloodletting has stopped with, one would hope that the future ahead could be positive for the new entity. Disclaimer The information or opinions provided herein do not constitute investment advice, an offer or solicitation to subscribe for, purchase or sell the investment product(s) mentioned herein. It does not take into consideration, nor have any regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation, risk profile, tax position and particular, or unique needs and constraints. Read full Disclaimer. www.samso.com.au If you find this article informative and useful, please help me share the information. I try and write about topics that are interesting and have the potential to be of investment value. It is not easy to find stories that fit those parameters. If you or your organisation see the benefit of what Samso is trying to achieve and have a need to share your journey, please contact me on noel.ong@samso.com.au. About Samso

Sulphate of Potash (SOP) is indeed an agricultural phenomenon within the mining industry and probably should not be treated as a commodity. I don’t think the retail investing community fully appreciate the sector or is probably too impatient. Like all things in life, we pigeon hole our thoughts. I feel that SOP should be treated as an agricultural product. A product that should not have any connection to the typical mineral commodity community. The whole SOP industry is now pretty mature with several companies already way down the road on feasibility and mining studies. Technology is now pretty off the shelf, and new players will need to be innovative in how they approach the market. My optimism for the Sector I think we are seeing signs that we may be fast approaching a period where we cannot seem to grow enough food to feed the increasing population on this planet. The only way we can sustain our needs is to increase yield without knocking down more acreage. It is this thinking that I got interested in this topic of the whole potash fertiliser thing and how it will improve the quality of food being grown and also increase yield. In terms of an investment opportunity, I have read many stories on how deserts are being transformed into an oasis. Now that is a great concept, but I know they must be putting something in that soil other than water to make that happen. Hence unless we get the big evil Thanos (for those that don’t know, Watch The Avengers: Endgame) to come and click his fingers and wipe out half of the human population, we better find a better way to feed ourselves without poisoning each other. On the way, it would be nice to be able to latch on a sector that has no limits, like aged care and childcare. Is there room for New Players? SOP is a premium potassium fertiliser required for healthy plant growth, plant metabolism, optimisation of crop yields and quality of produce. It is a necessary fertiliser for high value, chloride sensitive crops such as avocados, cocoa, coffee beans, grapes, berries and tree nuts, as well as arid and acidic soils. Potassium is also of vital importance for human health where it is required for normal cell function, maintenance of cardiovascular health and prevention of stroke and coronary heart disease. Companies that are new to the market have one great advantage, and that is the ability to pick a strategy that works and one that will give them a competitive edge. Assuming that they have got an acreage with SOP and the tenements can be granted. SOP projects will need 100s of square kilometres of salt lake playa and interpreted paleochannels (ancient underground rivers). It would be ideal to have early exploration that has established a JORC Compliant Exploration resource/target as a minimum. You would also want to be close to infrastructure. In the above Figure 1 and Figure 2, an example of a live SOP IPO project, (Trigg Mining Limited), it appears that their projects are well-connected to transport and energy infrastructure. Many roads and tracks access the projects and two gas pipelines passing directly through the area. Nearby airstrips are located at the nearby working mines, as well as the commercial airport at a nearby town. These kinds of infrastructure are almost mandatory for bulk commodity projects to reach the market. So What is Sulfate of Potash (SOP) and Muriate of Potash (MOP) (Source: Agrimin, Investingnews, Salt Lake Potash) According to my google search, Sulfate of Potash contains 50% potash and 17% sulfur to crops. This potassium sulfate fertiliser is chloride-free and has a low salt index, less than half that of muriate of potash. Crops that are sensitive to chloride require SOP. SOP demand is driven by high-value crops, where the cost of fertiliser has less of an impact on crop profitability. The negative part of SOP is the high cost of production. The Mannheim Process is costly, and it also produces an unwanted hydrochloric acid by-product. MOP is the primary input in the process and represents approximately 75% of the production cost. Some other SOP Facts SOP currently sells for approximately AUD$900+/t (2019) The global market for SOP is ~7Mtpa, and ~70,000tpa is consumed in Australia annually (100% is imported) Market grade specifications for SOP are deemed to be >50% potassium oxide (K2O), > 17.5% sulphur (S) and <1.5% chloride (Cl) 50% of the SOP used globally is manufactured via the Mannheim Process, and the balance is extracted from ancient salt lakes What is The Mannheim Process (source: Wikipedia) The Mannheim process is an industrial process for the production of hydrogen chloride and sodium sulfate from sulfuric acid and sodium chloride. The Mannheim furnace is also used to produce potassium sulfate from potassium chloride. The Mannheim process is a stage in the Leblanc process for the production of sodium carbonate. MOP or Muriate of Potash or Potassium Chloride is the most common of potash fertiliser. The form of fertiliser is only for crops that love chloride and for soils that are chloride deficient. The negatives are the chloride can be toxic to the crops and the soil. The needs have primarily driven the demand for MOP for food. The decreasing yield is ignored as the demand has exceeded that ratio. I think some of this demand is also coming from an Increase in wheat farming. I read in one research that there is a rise in carbohydrate form of food as the “third world” is getting self-sufficient in that form of food. It is a cost-effective way of allowing them to get into a self-sustaining cycle. As for what I call those in the “first-world” problems, they are acknowledging that there is a need to “clean-up”, I do feel that if companies can produce SOPs and make money, they will prevail. This is like what the iron-ore industry is witnessing with the high-grade ores being favoured as China comes to grips with cleaning up the pollution that is generated with lower grade ore being used in steel mills. What a typical SOP Project has to deal with? The SOP is dissolved in brine contained in sediments below and around the salt lakes, which is affected by: • The capacity of the sediments to retain brine. • Variability of the brine chemistry throughout the aquifer system. • The ability of the sediments to release brine during abstraction. • Viability of abstracting the brine at the required rates • Effect of brine abstraction on the regional hydrogeology and environment. The new thinking in SOP manufacturing is a non-Mannheim process such as that described in the diagram below. Several companies are now entertaining this process. Effectively you could say that this process is similar if not identical to that used in Dampier to process their salt. Are there any other players in the SOP sector. The whole potash industry has been around for many years. As I mentioned, it started with the phosphate flavour, and I remember this was off the back of the uranium rush back in 2006 or even earlier. It kind of went for a six month hard run on uranium and then it was phosphate. The Potash rush came later, and of late it has been quiet, for me anyway. Researching this article, I noticed that some of these companies have been established and are travelling pretty good. I did see some news in this sector about 12 months ago, but as I mentioned, I never ventured into any research. I have listed some of the better-known companies to me below from my research. However, there are probably more advanced or better-known companies not listed here. – Agrimin (ASX: AMN) – Danakali (ASX: DNK) – Reward Minerals (ASX: RWD) – Salt Lake Potash (ASX: SO4). What is the positive aspect of New Entrants? One advantage for a late player coming into this sector is that they will be able to get the best practice that is being developed without needing to go through the hard yards of trial and error. For example, to negate the high manufacturing cost, many current companies are talking about doing what I call the “Dampier Way”. Evaporating the brine and then shipping what is left as “concentrates”. I believe that it is a more straightforward process, and it has worked a charm for the salt sector. A couple of years ago, I stumbled onto a group wanting to mine salt in Somaliland. The concept was pretty easy. In Somaliland, the evaporation rates are apparently the best. The proposal was to evaporate the seawater and capture the moisture to be stored for agriculture. I showed this project some of my contacts in Asia, and there was some interest. The timing was not the best for the participants, and they stopped the negotiations due to internal issues back in China. However, the business proposition was perfect. Mine the salt, use the evaporated moisture for agriculture and create a sparse land of no agricultural use into an oasis of farms. What are the negatives for New Entrants? Here are some of the challenges that I see, and they are common issues such as, – Define a resource – Feasibility Studies – Funding for ongoing work. Funding is always an issue. However, if you can make the money want you, it is all smooth sailing from that moment. How do you do that? In the normal metal space, and I guess in oil and gas too, you need to show that your project is robust and have all the development ROI sorted. SOP has one other factor. As a product, SOP is described as having an inelastic demand. This means that the demand for the product is not subject to price movements, or instead not at the mercy of price movement. Hence, they have the market on their side. Require A Resource Of course, it is a given that resources will need to be established and then it needs to show the economics. But at least if they get to define a useful resource, funding will be easier to target with a good marketable product. Defining the resource will have its challenges in that the product is in solution, and they can move, literally. My experience with the salt lake hosted uranium projects have taught me that defining a resource could be tricky. As the commodity is in solution, an influx of groundwater and groundwater movement will affect the potential resource for the better or the worse. This will lead to issues in your feasibility studies. Probably not a big problem but I think that it will probably cost more? The upside to this is that new entrants to this market will get all the upside from work related to brine hosted lithium and potash deposits in the last five years. In discussion with associates, we spoke about how the “Americans and the Russians” love brine hosted lithium and think hard rock lithium is a waste of time. Hence, in my opinion, drawing on that expertise to understand brine hosted deposits will be important if not critical. The good news is that the skills are there and not in the development phase. You could almost measure it as an item that you could buy off the shelf. In Conclusion I like things that are simple. Sometimes when you are too early into the market, you don’t get any love and similarly when you are too late. How many people invest at the right time? Well, that is the million dollar question. There were many winners in the early part of the Potash run, but I think it is not too late to look at this market now. As for new players, again, this could be the second wave. Investment in the resource market, in general, is not short term. There have been very few companies that have started and was in production within five years. I see any new entrants, either as an RTO or an IPO, as a way of getting into a sector at a reasonably lower valuation compared to what is already out there. Companies will take advantage of best practice in developing the projects as all the hard work have already been done. In some way, the dust has settled and it is now clear to see what works and what does not. Sometimes a rebuild is cheaper and faster than a renovation. —Clean China Policy— As for the pricing, management needs to take care of market perception. I have this view because the demand for this commodity is going to surface and surface quickly soon. China is now in a clean-up phase, and the environment is the number one priority. You only have to look at the iron ore market where higher grade ores are getting premium as they are allowing the steel mill to meet environmental requirements. This thinking is consistent with my thoughts on uranium coming into the picture as it is by far without out any competitor the cleanest fuel in the market. It has less carbon footprint than any other so-called renewable energy source. It will be the cheapest clean energy alternative. This cleaner way of doing business is a factor that is mostly missed by out investing circles. Food source and the simple fact of high yield and low environmental damage will be in the front of China policy, not saying that it is not already. For an investor, I feel this sector is going to be like the base-metal sector, you cannot live without it, but you can live without lithium and cobalt. It is absolutely a risk, but what is not? Disclaimer The information or opinions provided herein do not constitute investment advice, an offer or solicitation to subscribe for, purchase or sell the investment product(s) mentioned herein. It does not take into consideration, nor have any regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation, risk profile, tax position and particular, or unique needs and constraints. Read full Disclaimer. www.samso.com.au If you find this article informative and useful, please help me share the information. I try and write about topics that are interesting and have the potential to be of investment value. It is not easy to find stories that fit those parameters. If you or your organisation see the benefit of what Samso is trying to achieve and have a need to share your journey, please contact me on noel.ong@samso.com.au. About Samso