Samso has had a late entry to looking at looking at G11 Resources Limited (ASX: G11) as it explores for copper and gold within Tasmania’s Mt Read Volcanic Belt, a region that hosts the Mt Lyell Copper-Gold Mine and several other base metal and gold deposits. The Company’s focus is on structurally controlled mineralisation along the Great Lyell Fault, which is the main structural control to the Mt Lyell ore system. Samso has previously covered G11 in relation to: G11 Resources Limited – New Copper-Gold EM Drill Targets Identified at Linda Project This latest ASX Release dated 26 February 2026 outlines the identification of additional copper-gold drill targets generated from a geophysical review of historical VTEM data within the Linda Project. This summary reflects the factual disclosures made in the ASX release dated 26 February 2026 below: New Copper / Gold drill targets identified – 26 February 2026 ( view the announcement ) Introducing the G11 Resources Limited Update: New EM Targets Defined Along the Great Lyell Fault at Linda Project On 26 February 2026, G11 Resources Limited announced the identification of new copper-gold drill targets within the northern portion of EL6/2024 (Linda Project), located in Tasmania’s Mt Read Volcanic Belt. The Company has commenced a systematic exploration program comprising: Diamond drilling (currently underway at the Zig Zag anomaly; ~2,400m program) Geophysical review and interpretation along the underexplored northern extent of the Great Lyell Fault New Copper Gold drill targets i… The Great Lyell Fault is the primary structural control that hosts the ore bodies of the Mt Lyell Copper-Gold Mine near Queenstown, Tasmania New Copper Gold drill targets i…. The newly defined EM (electromagnetic) anomalies are located in the Comstock Valley area, interpreted to sit near a structural juncture along the Great Lyell Fault and a northwest–southeast fault corridor (Figure 1). Figure 1: G11 Resources tenements showing geophysical drill targets overlaid on geology, structure and adjacent Mt Lyell deposits. This map shows the relationship between the new EM targets, the Great Lyell Fault, and the Mt Lyell ore bodies. (source: G11) Highlights: EM Anomalies Identified Along Strike from Copper Chert Ore Body Key factual points from the ASX Release include: Systematic review of geophysical data over EL6/2024 has defined new EM anomalies in the northern portion of the Linda Project New Copper Gold drill targets i… These anomalies are located along strike from the Copper Chert ore body Targets occur near an interpreted structural juncture involving the Great Lyell Fault The strike extent north of Mt Lyell remains very poorly explored, with limited historic drilling and no modern systematic exploration New Copper Gold drill targets i… G11 Resources Limited will apply for drill approvals with Mineral Resources Tasmania (MRT) to test the new targets New Copper Gold drill targets i… The EM targets were generated through reprocessing and 3D interpretation of a 2011 heli-borne VTEM survey originally conducted by Geotech Airborne Pty Ltd New Copper Gold drill targets i…. The survey: Totalled 926 line kilometres Line spacing: 250m Nominal terrain clearance: 48m New Copper Gold drill targets i… G11 Resources Limited and its consultant geophysicist analysed Conductivity-Depth Inversion (CDI) slices at 450m depth to model conductivity anomalies beneath the project, forming the basis of the new drill targets. Figure 2: Image 1 & 2 - Diamond rig currently drilling the Zig Zag anomaly, with Copper Chert deposit in the background. (source: G11) Figure 3: Regional location plan showing Sedgwick Bluff (EL11/2025), MRV (EL33/2022), and Linda (EL6/2024) relative to Mt Lyell and other western Tasmanian mines. (source: G11) About the Company G11 Resources Limited is an ASX-listed exploration company focused on copper and gold exploration within the Mt Read Volcanic Belt in western Tasmania. The Linda Project (EL6/2024): Located east and south of the Mt Lyell Mining Centre Acquired via Tenement Sale Agreement with Iltani Resources Limited (ASX: ILT) announced 22 December 2025. No encumbrances or royalties No native title in place Tenement in good standing. The Mt Read Volcanic Belt hosts world-class mineral deposits including Mt Lyell, Henty, Rosebery, Hellyer, and Renison Bell. Management Commentary The ASX Release confirms that G11 has: Defined additional EM drill targets beyond the current Zig Zag drilling program Identified targets in structurally favourable positions along strike from known Mt Lyell mineralisation Completed a systematic geophysical review of historical datasets Initiated steps to apply for drill approvals to test the new targets. The announcement does not report any new drilling results. Near-term Milestones to Watch Based on the ASX Release, upcoming work includes: Completion of ~2,400m diamond drilling at Zig Zag Application for drilling approvals over new Comstock Valley EM targets Additional ground-based geophysical surveys including DHEM, MLEM, IP, CSAMT, gravity and magnetics. Surface geochemical sampling (rock chips, soils, stream sediments) RC and diamond drill testing of high-priority coincident anomalies. Down-hole electromagnetic (DHEM) (source: Develop) An exploration method for conductive mineralisation, particularly in areas where the ability of surface EM to define a target is limited either by large depths or by interfering conductive bodies such as overburden, shallow sulphides and peripheral mineralised horizons. DHEM allowed explorers to widen the search radius of boreholes, when used in the search of massive sulphides. MLTEM: Moving Loop Transient Electromagnetic Surveying (source: Wireline Services Group) MLEM surveys are an effective way to image a target through multiple EM coupling (transmitter-receiver relative to target) scenarios with the potential to cover kilometers of tenement per day. MLEM is an ideal follow up to airborne EM, soil sampling and/or geological surveys. Induced Polarization (IP) (source: Surface Search Inc.) Induced Polarization (IP) is a geophysical method used extensively in mineral exploration and mine operations. The IP survey is very similar to electrical resistivity tomography (ERT). Resistivity and IP methods are often applied on the ground surface using multiple four-electrode sites. In an IP survey, in addition to resistivity measurement, capacitive properties of the subsurface materials are determined as well. As a result, IP surveys provide additional information about the spatial variation in lithology and grain-surface chemistry. CSAMT Surveys (source: ClearView Geophysics Inc.) CSAMT (Controlled Source Audio-frequency Magnetotellurics) are an effective way to image the ground resistivity by collecting ‘soundings’ at each location. Readings taken in the ‘Scalar-Mode’ use one magnetic sensor which is oriented perpendicular to several 25-metre or 50-metre electrical dipoles. Samso Concluding Comments It is important to note that the EM anomalies generated are located along strike from the Copper Chert ore body and at a structural junction of the Great Lyell Fault (Figure 1). What does that man for those wondering? Well, it comes back to the old location, location, location scenario. This is important as well. The Great Lyell Fault is the primary structural control to the Mt Lyell Copper-Gold Mine. The northern strike extension within G11 Resources Limited ground is described as poorly explored with limited historical drilling as illustrated by the regional geological setting as shown in Figure 3. No historical drilling is a blessing but we all know that it is not necessary a tick of approval in terms of finding economical mineralisation or any mineralisation. The targets are based on conductivity anomalies interpreted from CDI depth slices derived from the 2011 VTEM survey data. For any potential investors, it is now about the drilling and what that brings in terms of news flow. Market Implication - The Investor Lens A market capitalisation of over AUD $44M is always going to deter the retail punters. The market is now primed and one can either feel the vulnerability of a pull back or the anxiety of missing out on potential gains. As we see the price of gold sky rocketing and now the added pressure of the escalating hostilities in Iran and Israel, what will that mean for the mineral exploration sector that is promoting the discovery of gold and copper. The share price chart for G11 Resources Limited (Figure 4) does look really steady and if that is an indication of the strength, a discovery will make things rally interesting. Figure 4: The share price chart for G11 Resources Limited as of the 2nd march 2026. (source: commsec). Management comes with a good list of success and that should give incoming investors some guide on the level of risk. This is always a good measure to have as these are the people who control the spending. ASX companies have a real good history of spending a heap of money in a very short period of time, so a good management team is always a good box to tick when accessing your investment priorities. Cover photo: KENNECOTT MINE IS THE LARGEST OPEN-PIT COPPER OPERATION IN THE WORLD, Bruce McAllister. Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:KENNECOTT_MINE_IS_THE_LARGEST_OPEN-PIT_COPPER_OPERATION_IN_THE_WORLD_-_NARA_-_544789.jpg) The Samso Way – Seek the Research Here at Samso, we pride ourselves on delivering content for investors that is independent and informed by over three decades of experience in the industry. Our content is well-researched and is only created if I see merit in discussing the company's story. Our mission is simple: cut through the noise and spotlight what matters—genuine stories, grounded insights, and real opportunity. Our content is well-researched and is only created if the team sees merit in discussing the company or concept. Investors can explore our three core platforms: Coffee with Samso Samso Insights Samso News There may be numerous paths to success in investing, but the common thread among successful individuals is that they remain committed to making informed decisions. Equip yourself with the right knowledge and tools, and you will be well on your way to achieving your financial goals. Most importantly, investors need to be absolutely diligent in understanding their own risk-reward tolerance and capabilities. Never bite off more than you can chew. As they say, Rome wasn’t built in a day, and the Great Wall stood because it took centuries to complete. The Samso Philosophy: Stay curious. Stay sharp. And remember—digging deeper always uncovers the real value. In Life, there is no such thing as a Free Lunch. Never bite off more than you can chew is my parting comment. Happy Investing, and the only four-letter word you need to know is DYOR. To support our independent nature of our work, please head over to our Support Page and give us a helping hand in any of the ways listed. This is a new initiate for the Samso Platform, and it was always the concept of Samso when we started this journey in 2018. Disclaimer The information or opinions provided herein do not constitute investment advice, an offer, or solicitation to subscribe for, purchase, or sell the investment product(s) mentioned herein. It does not take into consideration, nor have any regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation, risk profile, tax position and particular, or unique needs and constraints. Read full Disclaimer. Share to Grow: Your Bonus Samso has just released an eBook: How to Add Value to your Share Portfolio A lesson on geological models sought by mining companies that gives insight and an understanding of which portfolios are better - and potentially more lucrative – investments. Click here to download this eBook. Download eBook If you find this article informative and useful, please help me share the information. I try to write about topics that are interesting and have the potential to be of investment value. It is not easy to find stories that fit those parameters. If you or your organisation sees the benefit of what Samso is trying to achieve and has a need to share your journey, please contact me at noel.ong@samso.com.au. About Samso Samso is a trusted platform that equips dedicated investors with up-to-date industry knowledge and insights from top CEOs and thought leaders. By staying informed on business advancements and market trends, investors can enhance their financial decisions through a combination of expert guidance and their own research.

Miramar Resources Limited (ASX: M2R) has reported shallow high-grade gold mineralisation from recent reverse circulation (RC) drilling at its 80%-owned Gidji JV Gold Project, located approximately 15 kilometres north of Kalgoorlie in Western Australia. The drilling intersected 3 metres at 9.45 g/t gold from 47 metres, including 1 metre at 23.11 g/t gold, at the Highway Prospect, marking the highest-grade result recorded at the project to date. The RC drilling programme comprised 19 holes for a total of 2,431 metres, targeting the Blackfriars and Highway prospects beneath earlier aircore gold intersections. Several holes intersected supergene gold anomalism near the base of the Gidji Paleochannel, indicating potential bedrock sources for mineralisation within the project area. Miramar Resources is awaiting additional assay results from the drilling campaign and has indicated that further drilling will be planned to evaluate the potential for shallow gold resources within the Highway Prospect area. About Miramar Resources Limited Miramar Resources Limited (ASX: M2R) is a Western Australian focused exploration company targeting gold and base metals across the Eastern Goldfields and the Gascoyne region of Western Australia. The company’s strategy is centred on exploration discovery in established mineral provinces with strong infrastructure and processing capacity nearby. One of the Miramar Resources' s key exploration assets is the Gidji JV Gold Project, located approximately 15 km north of Kalgoorlie-Boulder, in the world-class Eastern Goldfields Province of Western Australia. The project sits along approximately 15 km of strike of the Boorara Shear Zone, a major structural corridor that hosts several gold deposits in the district. Exploration at Gidji has focused on identifying gold mineralisation beneath transported cover and the Gidji paleochannel system, which has historically limited exploration in the area. Since commencing systematic drilling in 2020, Miramar Resources has identified multiple supergene gold discoveries through aircore drilling and has generated bedrock targets for deeper testing. The ASX release dated 10th March details shallow high-grade gold intersections from reverse circulation (RC) drilling at the Highway Prospect, within the larger Gidji JV exploration corridor. Miramar Resources RC Drilling Delivers Shallow High-Grade Gold at Gidji Miramar Resources Limited has reported shallow high-grade gold mineralisation from a recent RC drilling programme at the Gidji JV Gold Project, located north of Kalgoorlie in Western Australia. The drilling campaign intersected 3 metres at 9.45 g/t Au from 47 metres, including 1 metre at 23.11 g/t Au, in hole GJRC043 at the Highway Prospect. The intersection occurs at the contact between basal gravels of the Gidji Paleochannel and weathered diorite bedrock. The Highway Prospect forms part of a broader gold discovery corridor identified by Miramar Resources since exploration commenced in 2020. The company is awaiting further assay results from the current RC programme and intends to undertake additional drilling to determine the scale and continuity of mineralisation. Figure 1: Plan view of the Gidji JV Project showing drill hole locations across the Blackfriars and Highway prospects. (source: Miramar Resources Limited) Highlights 3m @ 9.45 g/t Au from 47m, including 1m @ 23.11 g/t Au, intersected at the Highway Prospect. Mineralisation occurs near the base of the Gidji Paleochannel and within weathered diorite bedrock. The RC programme comprised 19 holes for 2,431 metres testing the Blackfriars and Highway targets. Several holes intersected supergene gold anomalism at or below the base of the paleochannel. Additional assay results from multiple holes remain pending. Further drilling is planned to evaluate the potential for a shallow gold resource at the Highway Prospect. Geological Context and Drilling Results The RC drilling programme at Miramar Resources Gidji high-grade gold prospect tested targets beneath earlier aircore gold intersections across the Gidji project area. Holes were designed to test both bedrock mineralisation beneath transported cover and the supergene gold zones identified in previous exploration campaigns. Drilling at the Highway Prospect identified an altered diorite body with abundant sulphides, positioned between more mafic units. The key high-grade intersection from hole GJRC043 occurs within this altered zone at the base of the paleochannel. Figure 2: Cross-section through the Highway Prospect showing the high-grade mineralised zone intersected in hole GJRC043. (source: Miramar Resources Limited) Figure 3: Chip tray from hole GJRC043 showing the high-grade interval at the boundary between paleochannel sediments and weathered diorite. (source: Miramar Resources Limited) Management Commentary Miramar Resources Managing Director Marion Bush noted that the intersection represents the best gold result recorded from the Gidji project to date and highlights the potential for shallow gold mineralisation in the area. The company highlighted that the project is located in close proximity to multiple operating gold processing plants, which could assist with the monetisation of any potential deposit identified through ongoing exploration. Management also stated that the company expects to receive additional assays from the drilling programme in the coming weeks and will then plan further drilling to determine the scale of the mineralisation at the Highway Prospect. Near-term Milestones to Watch Receipt of remaining assay results from the current RC drilling campaign. Planning of additional drilling to test bedrock mineralisation and potential resource targets. Follow-up drilling to determine the scale and continuity of mineralisation at the Highway Prospect. Auger drilling programme at the Chain Pool Project in the Gascoyne region, targeting copper-lead-silver mineralisation at the Joy Helen prospect. Previous Samso News Coverage – An Investor Lens 1. Miramar Resources – Drilling to Test High-Priority Gold and Base Metal Targets in Q1 2026 – Good Reasons to Be in This Punt Published: 17 January 2026Link: https://www.samso.com.au/post/miramar-resources-drilling-to-test-high-priority-gold-and-base-metal-targets-in-q1-2026-good-rea This Samso News article discusses Miramar’s plans to drill multiple exploration targets in Western Australia during Q1 2026, including gold targets at the Gidji JV Project near Kalgoorlie and base-metal targets at Chain Pool in the Gascoyne region. The program aims to test bedrock mineralisation beneath previously identified anomalies using deeper drilling techniques. 2. Miramar Resources Ltd – Bangemall Project Update Published: December 2025 (approx. – site indicates ~3 months ago)Link: https://www.samso.com.au/post/miramar-resources-ltd-bangemall-project-update This article reviews Miramar’s exploration strategy at the Bangemall Ni-Cu-PGE Project in Western Australia. The project sits within the Edmund and Collier Basins and hosts Kulkatharra dolerite sills that could potentially host large Norilsk-style nickel-copper-PGE sulphide deposits. 3. Miramar Resources Limited (ASX: M2R) – Sumitomo Confirms the Prospectivity of Bangemall – Looking for a Norilsk-Style Ni-Cu-PGE Deposit Published: 11 September 2025Link: https://www.samso.com.au/post/miramar-resources-limited-asx-m2r-sumitomo-confirms-norilsk-ni-cu-pge-bangemall This Samso News piece covers Miramar’s exploration joint venture with Sumitomo Metal Mining Oceania, which could see Sumitomo earn up to 90% interest through staged expenditure and feasibility work. The partnership aims to test the Bangemall region for large Norilsk-style nickel-copper-PGE deposits. 4. Coffee with Samso – Miramar Resources Limited (ASX:M2R) – A Perfectly Valued Gold Story – The Gidji Gold Project and the Path to Being a Gold Mining Business Published: 9 July 2025Link: https://www.samso.com.au/post/coffee-with-samso-miramar-resources-limited-asx-m2r-a-valued-gold-story-the-potential-mining-gidj This Coffee with Samso feature discusses Miramar’s exploration strategy and the potential of the Gidji Gold Project near Kalgoorlie, highlighting the geological model and the company’s ambition to discover a significant gold deposit in the Eastern Goldfields. 5. Coffee with Samso – Insights: An Insight into a Mineral Explorationist, a Practical Eternal Optimist Published: 20 August 2024Link: https://www.samso.com.au/post/coffee-with-samso-insights-an-insight-into-a-mineral-explorationist-a-practical-eternal-optimis This Coffee with Samso Insights article profiles Allan Kelly, Executive Chair of Miramar Resources, discussing his philosophy on mineral exploration and the challenges of making economic discoveries in the mining sector. 6. Miramar Resources Limited (ASX: M2R) – Surprises in the Bangemall: Carbonatites and IOCG Published: 30 November 2022Link: https://www.samso.com.au/post/miramar-resources-limited-asx-m2r-surprises-in-the-bangemall-carbonatites-and-iocg This Coffee with Samso discussion explores early exploration work at Miramar’s Bangemall and Whaleshark projects in Western Australia and the geological potential of the region for new discoveries, including IOCG-style and carbonatite-related mineral systems. 7. Project Updates at Miramar Resources Limited (ASX: M2R) Published: 20 May 2022Link: https://www.samso.com.au/post/project-updates-at-miramar-resources-limited-asx-m2r This article accompanies a Coffee with Samso interview discussing Miramar’s exploration portfolio across the Eastern Goldfields, Murchison, and Gascoyne regions, including gold targets at Gidji and other exploration opportunities within trucking distance of existing operations. 8. Miramar Resources Limited (ASX: M2R) – Mineral Exploration Success – Discovery at Marylebone Published: 1 November 2021Link: https://www.samso.com.au/post/miramar-resources-limited-asx-m2r-mineral-exploration-success-discovery-at-marylebone This early Samso article discusses drilling results at the Marylebone prospect, where Noel Ong described the results discussed with Allan Kelly as representing a potential discovery and highlighted the broader exploration potential of Miramar’s Eastern Goldfields projects. Samso Concluding Comments The results from the RC drilling programme is going to hard to explain to the general public but all I can say is that it highlight the presence of shallow gold mineralisation within the Highway Prospect area at the Gidji JV Project. The intersection of 3 metres at 9.45 g/t gold will highlight two things, one is that bedrock mineralisation must be beneath the transported cover at some place that is unknown at this stage, The other is that potentially the Gidji paleochannel system or there is a supergene system here that is the prize that has not been realised. What we know is that the geological setting of the project along the Boorara Shear Zone places the exploration target within a known structural corridor that hosts several gold deposits in the Kalgoorlie region. The drilling programme was designed to test beneath earlier aircore gold intersections and evaluate potential bedrock sources for the previously identified supergene mineralisation. The drilling programme comprised 19 RC holes for a total of 2,431 metres, with several holes intersecting anomalous gold values greater than 0.25 g/t Au near the base of the paleochannel. On the surface, the program did not reveal any spectacular results that investors are always thinking will happen, but the reality is that the elusive "prize" is still in the unknown. Additional assays from several drill holes are still pending and will provide further information about the distribution of gold mineralisation across the Highway and Blackfriars prospects. Further drilling planned by the company is expected to test both lateral extensions and bedrock mineralisation beneath the paleochannel system. The objective of the next exploration phase is to evaluate the continuity of mineralisation and determine whether the Highway Prospect can support the definition of a shallow gold resource within the Gidji JV Project area. Market Implication - The Investor Lens There is no movement in the station in terms of the share price (Figure 4) reaction from the results but that is the reality for shareholders. What I will say as a shareholder is that money is being spent on the ground and that is all you can ask from management. with a market capitalisation of under AUD $5M, this is a great play for upside in a booming gold sector. Figure 4: Share price chart for Miramar Resources Limited as of 12th March 2026. (source: commsec) The best asset that Miramar Resources Limited has is the location of the Gidji project. The discovery does not need to be big and from the ASX release today on the 16th March 2026, there are funds are available for further drilling. The upside is still present at Gidji, in my opinion, and if Miramar Resources management is thinking that a supergene story may have potential, then that is good news to my ears. Cover photo: Gold panning on Jack Wade Creek (24785190007), BLM Alaska. Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Gold_panning_on_Jack_Wade_Creek_(24785190007).jpg) The Samso Way – Seek the Research Here at Samso, we pride ourselves on delivering content for investors that is independent and informed by over three decades of experience in the industry. Our content is well-researched and is only created if I see merit in discussing the company's story. Our mission is simple: cut through the noise and spotlight what matters—genuine stories, grounded insights, and real opportunity. Our content is well-researched and is only created if the team sees merit in discussing the company or concept. Investors can explore our three core platforms: Coffee with Samso Samso Insights Samso News There may be numerous paths to success in investing, but the common thread among successful individuals is that they remain committed to making informed decisions. Equip yourself with the right knowledge and tools, and you will be well on your way to achieving your financial goals. Most importantly, investors need to be absolutely diligent in understanding their own risk-reward tolerance and capabilities. Never bite off more than you can chew. As they say, Rome wasn’t built in a day, and the Great Wall stood because it took centuries to complete. The Samso Philosophy: Stay curious. Stay sharp. And remember—digging deeper always uncovers the real value. In Life, there is no such thing as a Free Lunch. Never bite off more than you can chew is my parting comment. Happy Investing, and the only four-letter word you need to know is DYOR. To support our independent nature of our work, please head over to our Support Page and give us a helping hand in any of the ways listed. This is a new initiative for the Samso Platform, and it was always the concept of Samso when we started this journey in 2018. Disclaimer The information or opinions provided herein do not constitute investment advice, an offer, or solicitation to subscribe for, purchase, or sell the investment product(s) mentioned herein. It does not take into consideration, nor have any regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation, risk profile, tax position and particular, or unique needs and constraints. Read full Disclaimer. Share to Grow: Your Bonus Samso has just released an eBook: How to Add Value to your Share Portfolio A lesson on geological models sought by mining companies that gives insight and an understanding of which portfolios are better - and potentially more lucrative – investments. Click here to download this eBook. Download eBook If you find this article informative and useful, please help me share the information. I try to write about topics that are interesting and have the potential to be of investment value. It is not easy to find stories that fit those parameters. If you or your organisation sees the benefit of what Samso is trying to achieve and has a need to share your journey, please contact me at noel.ong@samso.com.au. About Samso Samso is a trusted platform that equips dedicated investors with up-to-date industry knowledge and insights from top CEOs and thought leaders. By staying informed on business advancements and market trends, investors can enhance their financial decisions through a combination of expert guidance and their own research.

RTG Mining Limited (ASX: RTG) has outlined a clear pathway toward near-term production at its Mabilo Copper-Gold Project in the Philippines. The company's Stage 1 Direct Shipping Ore (DSO) operations are now fully financed and approaching development commitment. The project hosts a high-grade reserve of 400kt at 5.13% copper equivalent (CuEq) and is supported by binding financing and offtake agreements covering 100% of Stage 1 production. The RTG Mining story is a revelation on the Samso platform as I have just come across the story. With a market capitalisation of only AUD $67.18M (as of 19th March 2026) , this is going paces with the current storyboard that is in place. I will say that "stumbling" onto RTG Mining bears some similarity to when I learned about the Titan Minerals Limited story who has made significant value addition since I spoke to them late 2025. The initial DSO operation is designed as a capital-light start-up, targeting approximately 100,000 tonnes of high-grade supergene chalcocite material grading around 21% copper, with forecast net operating cashflow of approximately US$198 million after tax. A staged development strategy is planned, with Stage 2 involving a larger-scale processing operation producing copper-gold concentrate. The update highlights strong project economics, including an after-tax NPV of approximately US$1.085 billion, along with sensitivity to copper and gold pricing. Exploration upside remains a key component, with identified porphyry targets and potential for resource expansion beyond the current defined mineralisation. RTG Mining – High-Grade Copper-Gold Project in Philippines Moving Toward Production RTG Mining is advancing the Mabilo Project, a high-grade copper-gold development asset located in the Philippines. The project hosts a Copper Equivalent (CuEq) Reserve of 400kt at 5.13% and Resource of 595kt at 4.68%, placing it among higher-grade undeveloped assets globally. Figure 1: RTG Mining Mabilo Project Location Map (source: RTG Mining Limited) The project is fully permitted with a Mining Permit and Environmental Compliance Certificate and is supported by binding financing and offtake agreements covering 100% of Stage 1 production. Stage 1 focuses on a high-grade DSO operation targeting supergene chalcocite material grading ~21% Cu, designed to generate early cashflow with relatively low capital intensity. The Business of the Company: Focus – Copper-Gold Development with Near-Term Cashflow RTG Mining is a dual-listed (ASX/TSX) company focused on developing high-grade copper and gold assets, with its flagship Mabilo Project as the near-term production driver. The company operates under a joint venture structure in the Philippines, holding 40% equity and approximately 50% of Stage 1 economics, alongside a local partner. Beyond Mabilo, RTG also holds the Chanach Project in the Kyrgyz Republic, a copper-gold exploration asset with a defined resource and ongoing drilling success, providing longer-term growth optionality. Highlights Stage 1 DSO fully financed, including debt facility and offtake agreement with Glencore Capital-light development, with CAPEX estimated at less than US$25M High-grade reserve base, including ~100,000t of 21% Cu supergene chalcocite Net operating cashflow (Stage 1): ~US$198M after tax Figure 2: Mabilo Project Economic Highlights (source: RTG Mining Limited) Stage 2 expansion planned, with 1.35Mtpa processing plant producing copper-gold concentrate Project NPV5 of ~US$1.085B (after tax) Strong leverage to commodity prices, with NPV increasing materially under higher copper and gold pricing scenarios Exploration upside, including porphyry targets and potential resource expansion Figure 3: Strong leverage to key commodty pricing. (source: RTG Mining Limited) Management Commentary The update highlights that RTG has secured binding finance and offtake agreements, enabling the transition into development and production. The company has also outlined that development commitment and start-up activities are targeted for 2026, with operational ramp-up expected thereafter. The presence of an experienced management team with a track record of developing mines across multiple jurisdictions is positioned as a key execution factor. Near-Term Milestones to Watch Finalisation of remaining operating permits (conversion and land clearing) Commitment to Stage 1 development and mobilisation Commencement of DSO mining (targeted 2026) Initial production from oxide gold cap and skarn material Transition into high-grade chalcocite mining phase Progression of Stage 2 engineering and development planning Continued drilling targeting resource expansion and porphyry system Figure 4: Near Term Commitment. (source: RTG mining) Samso Concluding Comments The RTG Mining update outlines a project that is moving from development into production, with the key focus on Stage 1 DSO operations at the Mabilo Project. The presence of high-grade copper material, combined with a capital-light start-up model, provides a pathway for early cashflow generation. The economic metrics presented in the update indicate strong project fundamentals, with a defined net present value and operating cashflow profile. The sensitivity to copper and gold prices shows that the project outcomes are closely tied to commodity market conditions, which is consistent with most development-stage assets. The staged development approach, beginning with DSO and followed by a larger-scale processing plant, demonstrates a structured pathway to scale. This reduces upfront capital requirements while allowing for operational progression based on initial cashflow. Figure 5: Mabilo exploration upside. (source: RTG mining) The broader project potential is supported by exploration upside (Figure 5), including porphyry targets (Figure 6) and regional extensions. These elements indicate that the current resource base may not represent the full extent of the mineral system. Figure 6: Mabilo project potential porphry target. (source: RTG mining) Market Implication - The Investor Lens The RTG Mining Limited story is a fairly simple one, the story is just about to start. The investment upside is laid out for everyone to see and we can all see the matrix of how the Mabilo project will easily make RTG over USD $1B at current commodity prices. There is one caveat, the projects are in the Philippines and their other project is in Kyrgyzstan. Both projects to most ASX investors are in poor jurisdiction but when you talk to management, they have been successful in these kinds of jurisdiction. Figure 7: Share price chart for RTG Mining Limited as of 19th March 2026. (source: commsec) Effective management is crucial, and I witnessed this firsthand with an investment in CGA Mining around 2008 which had the same management as RTG. After talking to Justine Magee (CEO) and Mark Turner (COO), I can see that the team is competent, reminiscent of a conversation I had with Titan Minerals Limited (ASX: TTM). Both companies are clearly undervalued currently, but TTM has more than doubled their market cap since I had the discussion with Melanie Leighton (CEO). For me, this is a must DYOR and a strong candidate for investors to take this seriously. Look at what they have and the market capitalisation. There is definitely a great divide in the current valuation and what the valuation would be if things go well for management. Cover photo: Native copper, malachite, and azurite - Native copper, malachite, azurite from the Black Hills, South Dakota, USA, Darla Sondrol. 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Many Peaks Minerals (ASX: MPK) is a West Perth gold company working in Côte d’Ivoire, in West Africa. The Many Peaks Minerals share price closed at A$1.04 on 9 October 2026, about five times the price of two years earlier. In that time the company has taken an acquired set of exploration permits to a maiden Mineral Resource Estimate of 1.32 million ounces of gold at its Ferké Gold Project. A Mineral Resource Estimate, or MRE, is a formal statement of how much metal is in the ground. Many Peaks holds 65% of that deposit and has not yet published a mining study. We are writing on Many Peaks now because an updated resource is due this quarter, with a mining study to follow. Gold has also pulled back from its January high. All prices in this piece are as at the close of ASX trading on 9 October 2026. Global prices for gold and the Australian dollar are taken at the same time. SOURCE DOCUMENTS The two documents to read first are the maiden resource release of 20 April 2026 and the June 2026 quarterly report of 29 July 2026. Every source is listed in the references at the end. Many Peaks Minerals and the Ferké Gold Project in Côte d’Ivoire Ferké is in the north of Côte d’Ivoire, near the border with Burkina Faso (FIG. 01). The company has three other project areas in the country. Odienné is in the north-west, Baga is in the centre and Oumé is in the south.

a series on the human behaviours behind investing decisions In 2008 Malcolm Gladwell asked a simple question: of everyone capable of doing something well, what fraction ever get the chance to do it? Eighteen years of research have answered it, and the answer reaches straight into how we pick companies. We keep crediting outcomes to the quality of a team when timing, visibility, funding and luck did most of the deciding. This note follows that mistake from the science into the market, and asks what a diligent investor should do about it. Samso Insights Research Insights Luck vs. Talent Samso Investing Series Every equity investor has made a version of the same mistake, whatever their sector. The biotech investor backs a company for its elegant science and a respected team. The trial reads out, the stock halves, and the lesson drawn is that management overpromised. The tech investor buys the company with the best product and watches a worse-funded rival, listed a year earlier with more attention, take the category. The small-cap investor holds a genuinely good business that never gets analyst coverage and never re-rates. Three different sectors, one error underneath all of them: crediting the outcome to the quality of the team, when timing, visibility, funding access and luck did most of the deciding. It is the same error, exactly, that makes us believe a January-born hockey player is more talented than a November-born one. The useful response is not to stop judging companies. It is to judge them one level deeper. Understand the projects well enough to ask, of any company, not "is this good?" but "is this good in a way that timing, visibility and funding are about to reward?" The first question everyone asks. The second is the one that pays, and it is answerable only by someone who has done the work of understanding the business. The rest of this note is about why that second question is the right one, and where the science says the answer hides. WHAT THIS PIECE COVERS 1.00 THE QUESTION: WHO GETS THE CHANCE? Capitalisation, and the fortunes it quietly decides. 2.00 THE BIRTHDATE MACHINE How a cut-off date decides who looks talented. 3.00 THE CONSTRAINT OF CAPITAL The good asset sitting in the company that cannot raise. 4.00 THE SCOUT’S GAZE Being seen is not the same as being good. 5.00 SUCCESS BREEDS SUCCESS Why a small early lead turns into a large one. 6.00 THE WINNERS WE MISREAD Studying only the survivors overstates the skill involved. 7.00 THE LAST BIASED JUDGE IS THE ONE IN THE MIRROR The same errors, run on yourself. 8.00 WHAT DID NOT SURVIVE The 2008 ideas the evidence has since retired. 9.00 THE TEST BEFORE THE TALENT ARGUMENT What to actually do with all of this. 1.00 — THE QUESTION: WHO GETS THE CHANCE? Capitalisation, and the fortunes it decides for investors The idea at the centre of this note has a plain name: capitalisation. It is the rate at which a group makes use of the ability inside it. Of everyone capable of doing a thing well, what fraction actually end up doing it? The psychologist James Flynn gave the concept its shape, and Gladwell built his book Outliers around it. The reason it should interest an investor is that ability turns out to be a poor predictor of who succeeds, because so much ability never gets its chance. The strongest modern evidence comes from a large United States study, "Who Becomes an Inventor in America?". Children of families in the top 1 per cent of income are about ten times more likely to grow up to hold a patent than children from below-median-income families. You might assume the rich children were simply more able. They were not: childhood maths scores explain less than a third of the gap, and even among children who scored in the top 5 per cent, those from high-income families were more than twice as likely to become inventors. The researchers called the missing ones "lost Einsteins", capable people whose ability was never capitalised. FIG. 01 shows the shape of it. The most respected investor alive has said the same thing about himself, in plainer words. Warren Buffett calls the accident of where and when a person is born the "ovarian lottery", and once put it this way, in a remark recorded in Roger Lowenstein's biography Buffett: "I personally think that society is responsible for a very significant percentage of what I've earned. If you stick me down in the middle of Bangladesh or Peru or someplace, you'll find out how much this talent is going to produce in the wrong kind of soil." A talent for allocating capital is worth a fortune in one setting and nothing in another. The talent did not change; the chance to use it did. 2.00 — THE BIRTHDATE MACHINE How a cut-off date decides who looks talented Gladwell's most durable example was sport. Age-group teams use a cut-off date, usually the first of January. Selectors watch ten-year-olds, pick the best, and give the chosen ones better coaching and more games. But at ten, the "best" are mostly just the oldest. A child born in January has nearly a year of growth on one born in December, and that head start, compounded by the extra coaching, becomes real skill a decade later. The selectors think they spotted talent. They mostly spotted a birthday. The evidence has only grown since 2008. This effect, known to researchers as the relative age effect, is one of the most replicated findings in sport science, confirmed across dozens of studies, 25 or more sports, and both sexes. Gladwell read out the roster of a 2007 Czech junior team to make the point, and it holds up: of the twenty players he listed, eleven were born in the first three months of the year and only a handful in the last three. FIG. 02 shows that skew, alongside a finding he could not have known. In United States states with a 1 September school cut-off, children born in August, the youngest in their year, are diagnosed with attention-deficit disorder markedly more often than children born in September, the oldest, with no such gap in states without that cut-off. The arbitrary line does not just sort athletes. It reaches into a doctor's office. The market has its own cut-off date, and its name is vintage: the point in the cycle at which a company happens to list or raise. A company that floats into a hot market raises easily, attracts coverage and liquidity, funds a real programme, and five years later looks well run. One with the same assets and the same people that lists into a cold market may never get to prove its ground. The best-documented hot market in the finance literature, the new-issue boom of 1980, was almost entirely made of natural-resource floats, and Australian mining floats have historically been priced at an average of roughly double their issue value on day one, driven by conditions at the time of listing rather than the quality of the mine. The local examples are recent. Nuix (ASX: NXL), the data-analytics company, was the largest Australian float of 2020, listed at $5.31 into a hot technology window, ran to nearly $12, then fell more than 40 per cent on its first real result, back through the issue price. Guzman y Gomez (ASX: GYG), the food business, listed four years later into a warmer, more selective window and jumped about a third on debut. The honest reading of both is not that vintage is destiny. Nuix also repeatedly missed its own forecasts, and brokers called Guzman y Gomez's debut price stretched. Quality still matters. The point is that the window decides whether quality ever gets a fair hearing. 3.00 — THE CONSTRAINT OF CAPITAL The good asset in the company that cannot raise Gladwell's first constraint was poverty, and his exhibit was a 1920s study that tracked children with genius-level test scores for decades. What separated the ones who thrived from the ones who failed was not their ability, which was uniformly high, but the homes they came from. A one-in-a-billion mind born into a poor household was not enough. The modern evidence is cleaner than his was, and it carries a hopeful twist. The same "lost Einsteins" data show the effect is not a law of nature but a feature of institutions: where schooling is free and universal, as in Finland, ability matters far more and family income far less. Societies can raise their own capitalisation rate, and some do. That is the optimistic core of the whole argument: the waste is not inevitable. In markets, poverty's twin is access to capital. Finance research finds that the best predictors of whether a company is financially constrained are simply its size and age, not the quality of what it owns. A first-rate deposit or a promising therapy inside a small, young company with no cash and no following is the genius child in the poor household: the ability is real, but the runway to express it may not be there. Mesoblast (ASX: MSB), the cell-therapy company, is the clearest local case. Its treatment was knocked back by United States regulators twice, the shares crashed more than half on the second rejection, and it survived only through repeated capital raises before finally winning approval in late 2024. The technology may always have been good. Whether shareholders were rewarded depended on something else entirely: the ability to keep funding it through the winter, at heavy cost to the early holders. Access to capital and the quality of the asset are not the same thing, and the market prices the first far more reliably than the second. 4.00 — THE SCOUT’S GAZE Being seen is not the same as being good Return to the ten-year-olds. The deeper problem was never that the oldest were chosen; it was that being chosen changed everything that followed. The scout's attention was itself the advantage. The same is true of markets, and it is where doing the work earns its keep. Finance research shows that information reaches an under-covered company's price slowly, when it reaches it at all. Studies using broker closures, which strip away analyst coverage for reasons that have nothing to do with a company's quality, find that when coverage disappears, price and liquidity fall, and firms that lose an analyst even cut their real investment. Visibility, not merit, moves the share price and the cost of capital. Life360 (ASX: 360), the family-location app, spent years quietly listed in Australia before a United States listing broadened its investor base and the local line rose sharply, on a business whose growth had been real all along. It was the same company the week before and the week after. What changed was who was looking. That lag is where research becomes an edge rather than a chore. The window of slow-moving information belongs to whoever has already read the material and understood the projects before the coverage machine arrives. FIG. 03 lays out the full set of pairings the note has been drawing, each behavioural constraint beside the market mechanism that mirrors it. 5.00 — SUCCESS BREEDS SUCCESS Why a small early lead becomes a large one There is a reason the scout's early pick pulls so far ahead, and it is not only the extra coaching. Early advantage compounds. Sociologists call it the Matthew effect, after the verse about those who have being given more, and the modern experiments show it is not merely a pattern but a cause. The cleanest evidence comes from a study of research grants, "The Matthew effect in science funding". Among early-career scientists applying for funding, those whose scores landed them just above the cut-off went on to accumulate more than twice the funding of applicants who scored just below it, people who were, on the numbers, indistinguishable. FIG. 04 shows the two paths diverging from a line drawn almost at random. Strikingly, about half the gap came not from the winners doing better but from the near-miss losers giving up and not applying again. Discouragement did as much of the work as reward. As Daniel Kahneman put it in Thinking, Fast and Slow, "Success = talent + luck. Great success = a little more talent + a lot of luck." Markets run the same loop. A company that gets an early lead in attention draws flows, and flows draw more attention. Inclusion in a major index has historically given a stock a lasting lift with no change in its underlying business. The important caveat, and it keeps the argument honest, is that this particular effect has faded: as more money has chased it, the index-inclusion premium in large markets has shrunk toward nothing. It matters most where arbitrage capital is scarce, which is precisely the smaller end of the market, where a diligent investor is most likely to be early. 6.00 — THE WINNERS WE MISREAD Studying the survivors overstates the skill If early advantage and luck do so much of the deciding, then the winners we hold up as proof of skill are a biased sample. We see the survivors. We do not see the equally capable ones who never made it, because they are no longer in front of us. The finance evidence here is close to bulletproof. Studying only the funds that survived a period manufactures the appearance of skill where none exists. Across roughly three thousand United States funds, net returns in aggregate were negative by about the cost of fees, and the spread of results was close to what pure chance would produce; one careful study, "False Discoveries in Mutual Fund Performance", found only about 0.6 per cent of funds showed genuine, luck-adjusted skill. As Nassim Taleb wrote in Fooled by Randomness, of the survivors we notice and the failures we never see, "We see the wealth being generated, never the losers." The coin-flippers, the orangutans, and the one thing luck cannot fake Warren Buffett gave the sharpest version of this in a 1984 talk, later published as "The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville", and it is worth walking through slowly, because it does two opposite jobs at once. Picture a national coin-flipping contest. Every one of the country's 225 million people wagers a dollar and calls a coin each morning, and those who call wrong drop out and hand their dollar to those who called right. After twenty mornings, about 215 people are left who have called twenty flips in a row, each now sitting on a little over a million dollars. They will be insufferable about their "technique". The statistician's reply is that this outcome was guaranteed before a single coin was tossed: start with enough players and pure chance must leave a couple of hundred spectacular winners. You would get the identical result from 225 million orangutans. A dazzling track record, on its own, proves nothing, because in a big enough crowd someone always wins the lottery. Then Buffett turns the tale around, and this is the part that matters. Suppose, he says, you noticed that forty of the surviving orangutans came from the same zoo in Omaha. You would stop believing in luck at once, and go and ask that zoo what it feeds its animals. Random winners scatter evenly across the whole population; they do not bunch up in one place. When winners cluster far beyond what chance allows, luck is no longer a sufficient explanation, and a common cause is. That is the hinge of the argument: luck can manufacture winners, but it cannot manufacture the non-random clustering of independent winners around a shared cause. Buffett's claim was that the best long-term investors he knew were exactly such a cluster. An outsized share of them came from one intellectual village, the value-investing method taught by Benjamin Graham and David Dodd, whose central idea was to buy a business for meaningfully less than it is worth and treat the gap as a margin of safety. The detail that makes the argument work is that these investors did not hold the same shares or copy one another. Their portfolios overlapped very little, and each made independent choices, yet over long periods they all beat the market. Had their records been luck, they would be spread randomly across every style of investing, not concentrated in one school. The concentration is the evidence. Independent winners, repeating over time, all drawing on one identifiable method that a rival could study but not easily replicate, is the pattern luck cannot fake. So the story cuts both ways, which is exactly why it earns its place in a note about luck. The coin-flip half is the clearest illustration there is of survivorship bias, the trap of reading chance as skill. The orangutan zoo is the way out of that trap. Together they hand an investor a working test. A record is more likely to be skill than luck when the wins are independent rather than one hot streak, when they repeat across different conditions, and when they trace to a method you can actually name. A single spectacular run is a coin-flipper. A repeatable, explainable edge is the Omaha zoo. The honest catch is that claiming to be the zoo is also what every lucky fool would do, so the test only bites when the clustering and the independence are real and can be checked, which, once again, is work. The purest local illustration is a pair of biotechs. FIG. 06 sets them side by side. Neuren (ASX: NEU) won a landmark regulatory approval in 2023 and re-rated from a small company into the ASX 200, and we remember it. What we forget is that it spent two decades on programmes that failed or were abandoned before that one worked. Opthea (ASX: OPT) raised close to a billion United States dollars, ran a large late-stage eye-disease trial, and failed it in March 2025, with the shares roughly halving and a funding clause threatening its solvency. We remember the Neurens and forget the Optheas, and that forgetting is exactly what makes biotech look more skilful than the coin tosses beneath it. There is a hopeful mirror to this. The same research that found the birthdate skew also found that the late-born players who do survive selection tend to outperform the early-born at the very top, more all-stars, longer careers. Having succeeded against the disadvantage is itself a signal of quality. In markets, the team that kept a good project alive through a funding winter learned a discipline the boom-time listers never had to. Picking that toughened survivor in advance is far harder than admiring one in hindsight, but it is the kind of quality that research, not the tape, reveals. 7.00 — THE LAST BIASED JUDGE IS THE ONE IN THE MIRROR Your own mind runs the same errors Everything so far has been about misjudging other people: companies, teams, athletes, fund managers. The harder half, and the one an investor can actually do something about, is that the same errors run inside your own head. Morgan Housel opens The Psychology of Money with the story that ties it all together. Bill Gates went to one of the very few high schools in the world with a computer in the 1960s, a one-in-a-million break. His equally able school friend Kent Evans, by Housel's account the smartest in the class, died in a mountaineering accident before he could use his gift, a one-in-a-million piece of bad luck. "Luck and risk are siblings," Housel writes. "They are both the reality that every outcome in life is guided by forces other than individual effort." The same forces that decide which company gets its chance decide which investor ends up looking smart. The behavioural evidence is unsparing, and it is what keeps this from being mere motivation. In a study pointedly titled "Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth", researchers examined tens of thousands of real brokerage accounts and found that the most active traders, the ones most confident in their own edge, netted about 11.4 per cent a year against a market that returned 17.9 per cent. Overconfidence, not skill, drove the shortfall. Worse, a 2021 study, "Investor memory of past performance is positively biased and predicts overconfidence", found that investors misremember their own past returns as higher than they were, and the size of that self-flattering distortion predicts how much they overtrade; forced to look up their actual record rather than recall it, both the overconfidence and the overtrading fell. You run a private survivorship bias on your own history, remembering the wins and quietly editing out the losers. The former professional poker player Annie Duke, in Thinking in Bets, gave the core error its best name: resulting, the habit of judging a decision by how it turned out rather than by whether it was sound when you made it. It is the personal twin of the point that a good outcome does not prove a good decision. The disposition effect is the same error in the wallet: investors sell their winners and cling to their losers, at measurable cost, because booking a loss means admitting a mistake. As the psychologist and investor Daniel Crosby puts it in The Laws of Wealth, "The fact that people are fallible is your biggest enduring advantage in the accumulation of greater wealth. The fact that you are just as fallible is the biggest impediment to that very same goal." The one antidote the evidence actually supports is unglamorous: judge decisions by process, not outcome, and let process mean understanding the projects and the people, not reacting to the price. 8.00 — WHAT DID NOT SURVIVE The ideas from 2008 that the evidence has since retired Intellectual honesty cuts both ways, so here is the candour this argument owes. Not every idea Gladwell popularised survived the eighteen years of testing that followed. Three of his most memorable claims were priced up, in the mind, well beyond what the evidence could support, and were later marked back down. That is a hype cycle, and an investor should recognise the shape of it. In each case it helps to state plainly what the claim actually was, and then what happened to it. The “ten thousand hours” rule Gladwell argued that what looks like natural genius is mostly accumulated practice, and he put a number on it: roughly ten thousand hours, which he called "the magic number for true expertise". The Beatles were not simply born great, on this view; they became great by grinding through thousands of hours of live sets in Hamburg. Bill Gates got his start because a quirk of circumstance handed him thousands of hours of computer time as a teenager. Log the hours, the claim went, and the mastery follows. A large meta-analysis later found that practice explains only a modest slice of the difference in performance, roughly a quarter of it in fields like music and games and far less elsewhere, and close to nothing among elite performers, where everyone has already logged the hours. A careful re-run of the very violinist study the rule was built on failed to reproduce it: the best players had not practised more than the merely good ones. And Anders Ericsson, whose research Gladwell drew on, objected in print that there had never been a ten-thousand-hour rule at all. The figure was just the average for one group of students at about age twenty, not a threshold, and many reached the top with far fewer hours. Practice matters enormously. There is simply no magic number. The maths questionnaire Gladwell's explanation for why some countries are so much better at mathematics was culture, specifically a culture of patient effort, and his evidence was a striking one. Take the long, dull background questionnaire that students fill in alongside an international maths test, he said, and rank countries purely by how many of its questions their students bother to finish. That ranking, he claimed, is almost identical to the ranking of maths scores, so closely aligned that you could predict how good a country is at maths without asking a single maths question, just by measuring how willing its students are to persevere at something tedious. Effort, not ability, was doing the work. It is a wonderful line, and the correlation is real but far less tidy than told. The figure comes from an unpublished university working paper that was never peer-reviewed. The link holds strongly when you compare whole countries, but explains only a few per cent of the difference between individual students, and finishing a boring questionnaire is itself partly a test of ability and motivation, not pure grit, so it does not cleanly separate effort from ability the way the claim requires. A memorable story resting on a shaky number. The dyslexic entrepreneur The third claim is the most surprising, and the shakiest. Gladwell argued that a disability could be the cause of success rather than an obstacle to it, and his example was dyslexia among company founders. A striking share of successful entrepreneurs are dyslexic, he said, and not by accident: a child who cannot read easily is forced from an early age to build the very skills that later build companies, learning to delegate, to persuade out loud, and to work around the thing they cannot do. His memorable supporting figure was that some 80 per cent of dyslexic entrepreneurs had been captains of a school sports team, far more than their non-dyslexic peers, offered as proof of an early-forged talent for leadership. Here the ground is thinnest of all. The headline figure, that roughly a third of entrepreneurs are dyslexic, traces to a single small survey with a very low response rate that has never been replicated at that size. A later review found no general creative advantage to dyslexia whatsoever. And the vivid sports-captain statistic has no traceable published source anywhere, so it should not be repeated. The broader idea, that some disadvantages teach skills that later pay off, has better support in other research, but this particular exhibit cannot carry the weight Gladwell put on it. None of this demolishes the central argument. It sharpens it, by separating the parts that were substance from the parts that were froth, which is exactly the distinction this whole note is asking an investor to make. The lesson is not that Gladwell was wrong. It is that even a genuinely good idea arrives mixed with overstatement, and the investor's task, as ever, is to tell one from the other. 9.00 — THE TEST BEFORE THE TALENT ARGUMENT What to do with all of this Gladwell ended on distance running. East African runners dominate, and many take that as proof of some innate edge. His answer was that he would not entertain a talent explanation until the rest of the world had done as much to find and develop its runners, because until ability is given its chance, arguing about talent is premature. The investor's version is the test this note has been building toward. Before concluding that a team, a sector or a company lacks quality, ask whether the system ever gave that quality a chance to show itself. Did its vintage, its visibility and its funding access let the ground be tested, or did the machinery decide the outcome first? That is not a rhetorical question. It is answerable, and answering it is a research act, because you cannot judge whether quality was given its chance until you understand the quality, which means the projects and the people behind them. The reason to bother is that capitalisation rates can change, and fast. In one generation, participation by girls in organised sport in the United States went from a few per cent to a majority, once the rules were changed to let it. Finland's schools show the same thing for ability. Waste is not destiny. For an investor, the equivalent is that mispriced quality is findable, and finding it is the one edge genuinely within your control. Charlie Munger put the same idea in his 1989 letter to Wesco Financial shareholders: "It is remarkable how much long-term advantage people like us have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid, instead of trying to be very intelligent." References & sources This note draws on peer-reviewed research, two widely read books, and public statements by named investors, with company examples taken from public disclosures. Where a figure is contested or drawn from a working paper rather than a published study, the text says so. All visuals are original Samso illustrations of the data named in each caption; share-price paths are stylised to show direction, not level. Company financials and prices are market-sensitive, are current only as at the dates shown, and should be refreshed on publication day. This is a general educational note, not advice on any security. Bell, A., Chetty, R., Jaravel, X., Petkova, N. & Van Reenen, J. (2019). "Who Becomes an Inventor in America? The Importance of Exposure to Innovation." Quarterly Journal of Economics 134(2). Source of the invention-rate figures and the "lost Einsteins" framing (FIG. 01). Gladwell, M. (2008). Outliers: The Story of Success. Source of the capitalisation framing and the 2007 Czech junior roster (FIG. 02, left). Layton, T., Barnett, M., Hicks, T. & Jena, A. (2018). "Attention Deficit–Hyperactivity Disorder and Month of School Enrollment." New England Journal of Medicine 379. Source of the August-versus-September diagnosis figures (FIG. 02, right). Cobley, S., Baker, J., Wattie, N. & McKenna, J. (2009), and Smith, K. et al. (2018), meta-analyses of the relative age effect, Sports Medicine. On the breadth and modest size of the effect. The elite-level reversal: Fumarco, L. et al. (2017), PLOS ONE. Hadlock, C. & Pierce, J. (2010). "New Evidence on Measuring Financial Constraints." Review of Financial Studies 23(5). On size and age as the predictors of financial constraint. Kelly, B. & Ljungqvist, A. (2012), Review of Financial Studies; Derrien, F. & Kecskés, A. (2013), Journal of Finance. On analyst coverage causally affecting price, liquidity and investment. Bol, T., de Vaan, M. & van de Rijt, A. (2018). "The Matthew effect in science funding." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 115(19). Source of the near-miss grant divergence (FIG. 04). Greenwood, R. & Sammon, M. (2025). "The Disappearing Index Effect." Journal of Finance 80(2). On the shrinking index-inclusion premium. Fama, E. & French, K. (2010), and Barras, L., Scaillet, O. & Wermers, R. (2010), Journal of Finance. On luck versus skill in fund returns; source of the ~0.6 per cent figure. Survivorship bias: Brown, Goetzmann, Ibbotson & Ross (1992), Review of Financial Studies. Barber, B. & Odean, T. (2000). "Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth." Journal of Finance 55(2). Source of the 11.4 per cent versus 17.9 per cent figures. Memory bias: Walters, D. & Fernbach, P. (2021), PNAS 118(36). Disposition effect: Odean, T. (1998), Journal of Finance. Macnamara, B., Hambrick, D. & Oswald, F. (2014), Psychological Science, and Macnamara & Maitra (2019), Royal Society Open Science, on the limits of the deliberate-practice and "ten thousand hours" claims; Ericsson's published objection (2014). The mathematics-questionnaire claim traces to an unpublished University of Pennsylvania working paper, Boe, May & Boruch (2002), and is far weaker at the individual-student level than the popular version. Dyslexia and entrepreneurship: Logan, J. (2009), Dyslexia 15(4); the absence of a general creative advantage, Erbeli, Peng & Rice (2022), Journal of Learning Disabilities. Housel, M. (2020). The Psychology of Money, ch. 2, "Luck & Risk" (Gates and Kent Evans; "luck and risk are siblings"). Duke, A. (2018). Thinking in Bets ("resulting"). Crosby, D. (2016). The Laws of Wealth. Buffett, W.: the "ovarian lottery" and "society is responsible" passages, the latter as quoted in Lowenstein, R. (1995), Buffett: The Making of an American Capitalist; the coin-flip and orangutan thought experiment from "The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville" (1984), which FIG. 05 illustrates. Munger, C.: "consistently not stupid", Wesco Financial 1989 Annual Report. Kahneman, D. (2011). Thinking, Fast and Slow, ch. 17. Taleb, N. (2001). Fooled by Randomness. Company examples from public disclosures and reporting: Nuix (ASX: NXL) and Guzman y Gomez (ASX: GYG), listing and price history; Mesoblast (ASX: MSB), regulatory history and capital raises; Life360 (ASX: 360), Australian and United States listings; Neuren Pharmaceuticals (ASX: NEU) and Opthea (ASX: OPT), clinical outcomes (FIG. 06). All figures market-sensitive and to be refreshed at publication. Cover photo: NY stock exchange traders floor LC-U9-10548-6, Thomas J. O'Halloran. Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:NY_stock_exchange_traders_floor_LC-U9-10548-6.jpg). Reproduced photograph, shown faded under a navy overlay on the article thumbnail. The Samso Way – Seek the Research Here at Samso, we pride ourselves on delivering content for investors that is independent and informed by over three decades of experience in the industry. Our content is well-researched and is only created if I see merit in discussing the company's story. Our mission is simple: cut through the noise and spotlight what matters—genuine stories, grounded insights, and real opportunity. Our content is well-researched and is only created if the team sees merit in discussing the company or concept. Investors can explore our three core platforms: Coffee with Samso Samso Insights Samso News There may be numerous paths to success in investing, but the common thread among successful individuals is that they remain committed to making informed decisions. Equip yourself with the right knowledge and tools, and you will be well on your way to achieving your financial goals. Most importantly, investors need to be absolutely diligent in understanding their own risk-reward tolerance and capabilities. Never bite off more than you can chew. As they say, Rome wasn’t built in a day, and the Great Wall stood because it took centuries to complete. The Samso Philosophy: Stay curious. Stay sharp. And remember—digging deeper always uncovers the real value. In Life, there is no such thing as a Free Lunch. Never bite off more than you can chew is my parting comment. Happy Investing, and the only four-letter word you need to know is DYOR. To support our independent work, please head over to our Support Page and give us a helping hand in any of the ways listed. This is a new initiative for the Samso Platform, and it was always the concept of Samso when we started this journey in 2018. Disclaimer The information or opinions provided herein do not constitute investment advice, an offer, or solicitation to subscribe for, purchase, or sell the investment product(s) mentioned herein. It does not take into consideration, nor have any regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation, risk profile, tax position and particular, or unique needs and constraints. Read full Disclaimer. About Samso Samso is a trusted platform that equips dedicated investors with up-to-date industry knowledge and insights from top CEOs and thought leaders. By staying informed on business advancements and market trends, investors can enhance their financial decisions through a combination of expert guidance and their own research. Samso Insights | www.samso.com.au | An Investor Lens on ASX-Listed Companies

Part 1 argued that the world is spending enormous sums to produce AI, whether or not that spending yet buys value. This part follows the money into the physical supply chain the spending pays for, the chips and the buildings, and asks a plain question: which of it can an Australian investor actually own on the ASX, and which of it, including the much-hyped vector databases, is simply not listed here at all. WHAT THIS PIECE COVERS 1.00 THE PICKS-AND-SHOVELS IDEA, AND ITS LIMIT Selling shovels in a token rush, and where the analogy breaks. 2.00 THE CHIP LAYER: SEMICONDUCTORS ON THE ASX What is actually listed here, and how much of it is selling chips. 3.00 DATA STORAGE FOR AI: THE DATA CENTRE, NOT THE DATABASE Where AI really keeps its data, and which of that is investable here. 4.00 HOW THE TWO HALVES CONNECT Why the cost-per-outcome test applies to the shovels as well. 1.00 — THE PICKS-AND-SHOVELS IDEA, AND ITS LIMIT Selling shovels in a token rush There is an old rule about gold rushes: the steadier money was often made selling picks, shovels and denim to the miners rather than digging for the metal. The equivalent question for artificial intelligence is which businesses get paid no matter which AI application eventually wins. Part 1 made the case that a company's AI spending should be judged on cost per outcome, the cost of a finished, useful result, rather than on how much it spends or how loudly it talks about AI. That test is deliberately hard on the buyers of AI. The suppliers are a different proposition. Whether or not a given bank or retailer ever proves its chatbot was worth it, the tokens (the small chunks of text an AI reads and writes, and the unit it is billed by) still had to be produced somewhere, on physical chips, inside physical buildings, drawing physical power. FIG. 01 lays out that supply chain as a stack, and marks the plain truth of it: an ASX investor can buy the bottom of the stack (the buildings and, speculatively, the chips) but not the fashionable middle (the models and the vector databases). Now the limit, stated before any company is named. Australia is a small part of this supply chain. It has no large-scale chip fabrication, so most of its listed semiconductor names are early-stage technology-licensing hopefuls rather than profitable manufacturers. What follows maps what is here, what it does, and what each name's main risk is. It is not a list of recommendations, and the counterweights are as important as the descriptions. 2.00 — THE CHIP LAYER: SEMICONDUCTORS ON THE ASX Small, speculative, and mostly selling ideas rather than chips A semiconductor is the material, usually silicon, from which computer chips are made, and "the semiconductor industry" is the chain that turns it into working processors and memory. That chain has several rungs, and the handful of ASX names sit on different ones. FIG. 02 places them. The names differ as much in maturity as in what they do. FIG. 03 maps them on two axes an investor cares about: how far each is from real, repeatable revenue, and how speculative it remains. Most cluster at the pre-revenue, high-risk corner. Only DUG Technology and, to a lesser extent, Revasum sit near the "actual revenue" end. Before the profiles, PLATE 3 is a reminder of what this whole layer eventually produces: physical chips. Design and intellectual property BRN · AXE BrainChip Holdings (ASX: BRN) designs a low-power processor called Akida for "edge" AI, meaning AI that runs on a device such as a drone, sensor or piece of defence equipment rather than in a distant data centre. It licenses the design to others. For the year to December 2025, revenue was about US$1.89 million (up from about US$0.4 million a year earlier) against a net loss of about US$20 million, and a next-generation processor (the AKD2500) is expected in prototype during 2026. Risk Revenue is minimal, the licensing model is unproven at commercial scale, and the company has burned cash for years. The share price reflects hope for the future, not current earnings. PLATE 1 shows the Akida design BrainChip licenses to others, with its on-chip processing blocks and "neuron fabric". Archer Materials (ASX: AXE) is a research-stage developer of a quantum computing chip and a separate biochip. Quantum computing is an experimental approach that could one day solve certain problems far faster than today's machines. Archer reported a net loss of about A$2.99 million for the half and generates almost no revenue. Risk Highly speculative, pre-revenue, and any commercialisation is years away and uncertain. Memory WBT · 4DS Both names are chasing the same prize shown in PLATE 2: a memory that is as fast as today's working memory but keeps its data without power. Weebit Nano (ASX: WBT) has developed a memory technology called ReRAM (resistive memory) that aims to be faster and more power-efficient than the Flash memory in today's devices, and licenses it to chipmakers. It reported a record half-year revenue of about A$5.6 million, referenced a licensing deal with Texas Instruments, held about A$82.8 million in cash, and guided to more than A$10 million of revenue in the 2026 financial year. Its market value is above A$1 billion. Risk The valuation rests on future royalties that are still ramping, not on current profits, so it is priced for success that has not yet arrived. 4DS Memory (ASX: 4DS) is developing its own version of resistive memory aimed at high-density storage for mobile devices and data centres, which makes it the closest chip-level name to the "data storage for AI" theme. Revenue is negligible at about A$316,000, with roughly A$3.34 million in cash plus about A$5.45 million in deposits. Risk Very early stage with almost no revenue; it needs a commercial manufacturing partner before it counts for much. Materials BLG · SLX BluGlass (ASX: BLG) makes laser components from gallium nitride, a semiconductor material used in lasers and power electronics, using its own manufacturing process. It reported revenue of about A$5.76 million (up about 14 per cent), a net loss of about A$4.10 million, and referenced a US defence contract and a project pipeline. Risk Loss-making and facing the challenge of scaling a specialised process to volume. SILEX Systems (ASX: SLX) belongs here only with a clear caveat. Its main business is laser uranium enrichment technology, not chips. Its semiconductor-relevant activity is a "Quantum Silicon" plant producing highly purified silicon-28, a material used to build quantum computing chips. That is a genuine but secondary part of the company. Risk This is primarily an enrichment-technology company; anyone buying it for semiconductor exposure is really buying the enrichment story with a small chip option attached. Equipment and high-performance computing RVS · DUG Revasum (ASX: RVS) is the most literal "shovels" name on this list. It makes the grinding, polishing and planarising machines used to manufacture semiconductor wafers, including silicon carbide, and so sells tools to the industry rather than betting on any single chip winning. Risk A small supplier into a cyclical capital-equipment market; demand rises and falls with chipmakers' own spending. Current financials should be checked directly. DUG Technology (ASX: DUG) is different again: an established provider of high-performance computing (very large-scale number crunching), cloud services, geoscience work and software. Unlike the chip hopefuls it earns real revenue, and reported strong growth with its high-performance computing demand rising and cash flow turning positive. Risk Small in a field where the giants of cloud computing set the price, so it must keep finding niches they do not serve. 3.00 — DATA STORAGE FOR AI: THE DATA CENTRE, NOT THE DATABASE The vector database everyone talks about is not listed here Ask where AI keeps its data and the fashionable answer is the vector database. The realistic answer for an ASX investor is that you cannot buy one here, so the real local exposure is the building the data sits in. First, what a vector database is, in plain terms. Traditional databases find things by exact match, the way a phone book finds a name you spell correctly. A vector database stores information as strings of numbers that capture meaning, so it can find things that are similar in sense rather than identical in spelling. It is the technology behind most "chat with your documents" features, where an AI answers using a company's own material. It is central to how businesses are putting AI to work. It is also not something you can own on the ASX. The specialist vector database companies are privately held, and the listed ways to touch the technology are large overseas firms that offer it as one feature among many. One of the more prominent independents, Marqo, has Australian roots but is private (a point worth confirming before relying on it). FIG. 04 sets out where the category actually trades. So the ASX way to own "storage for AI" is the physical layer: the data centre. A data centre is a large, secure, heavily powered building full of computers that store data and run software for other companies. Its size is measured in megawatts (MW) of power, because power, not floor space, is what limits how much AI computing a site can run. FIG. 05 explains how a data centre turns power into profit, and where the cost-per-outcome test from Part 1 bites. Australia has a genuine, investable cluster of listed operators. FIG. 06 compares the capacity figures the main names have disclosed, with an important caveat in the caption about how those figures are defined. The listed data-centre names NXT · MAQ · DGT · GMG · IFT NextDC (ASX: NXT) is described as the purest data centre business on the ASX: it builds and runs the buildings that house AI computing and storage. It referenced 667 megawatts of contracted capacity (as at April 2026, up from 416.6 megawatts in December 2025), a A$1.5 billion equity entitlement offer forming part of a A$2.2 billion capital plan announced in April 2026, and a partnership with OpenAI to build sovereign AI infrastructure in Sydney (data centres kept on Australian soil under Australian control). Risk It spends enormous sums upfront; returns depend on filling that capacity with paying tenants at prices above its cost of capital. PLATE 4 is an artist's impression of NextDC's S4 Sydney campus, one of the hyperscale sites behind its contracted capacity. Macquarie Technology (ASX: MAQ) runs data centres alongside cloud and telecommunications businesses, and hosts a large share of Australian Federal Government computing, which is a demanding, sticky customer. A new 47 megawatt facility was referenced for opening in September 2026, with more in the pipeline. Its market value is around A$1.7 billion. Risk Smaller than NextDC, so expansion carries more execution and funding risk relative to its size. DigiCo Infrastructure REIT (ASX: DGT) is a data centre real estate investment trust (a listed property trust). In May 2026 it announced the sale of its Chicago data centre for about US$750 million to strengthen its balance sheet and fund growth, including an approved 88 megawatt expansion of its SYD1 Sydney campus. It has traded below its A$5.00 December 2024 listing price. Risk Recently listed and already below its issue price; as a property trust it is sensitive to interest rates. Goodman Group (ASX: GMG) is a large industrial property group that has pivoted hard towards data centres, referencing a development pipeline of about A$14.4 billion that is roughly 73 per cent weighted to them, and multi-gigawatt power capacity. It is the most diversified, and therefore lower-risk, way to touch the theme. Risk Data centres are only a slice of a business still exposed to the broader property cycle, so the AI exposure is diluted. PLATE 5 shows one of Goodman's data centre developments, the kind of asset its pipeline is now weighted towards. Infratil (ASX: IFT) owns about half of CDC Data Centres, a major operator that referenced a 555 megawatt contract with a large cloud customer, taking its contracted capacity above one gigawatt. Infratil is a New Zealand-based, dual-listed infrastructure investor. Risk A diversified infrastructure owner, so the AI exposure is real but indirect and shared with airports, energy and other assets. The connective tissue MP1 Megaport (ASX: MP1) is not storage, but it is worth naming as the plumbing between clouds and data centres. It sells "network-as-a-service", on-demand connections that let businesses link up cloud and data-centre services, and has been positioning towards AI workloads. Risk It provides connectivity rather than storage or compute, and competes in a fast-moving market; include it as an adjacency, not a core storage play. 4.00 — HOW THE TWO HALVES CONNECT The cost-per-outcome test applies to the shovels too It would be easy to read Part 1 and Part 2 as opposites: one urging caution on AI spending, the other pointing at ways to buy into it. They are the same discipline applied twice. The test from Part 1 was cost per outcome, not inputs. Turn it on the picks-and-shovels names and it still bites. A data centre operator is worth it when it signs paying tenants at a return above its cost of capital, not when it announces a headline number of gigawatts. A chip hopeful is worth it when it converts its intellectual property into recurring royalties, not when it runs an impressive demonstration. A high-performance computing provider is worth it when it wins work the cloud giants cannot serve more cheaply. In each case the announcement is the bill; the signed contract or the royalty cheque is the value. There is also a real tension between the two parts that a clear-eyed investor should hold. Part 1's cost discipline, if it takes hold, would slow the growth in tokens per task, which is part of what drives demand for all these shovels. The counter is that adoption has been growing faster than efficiency: Google's token volumes rose roughly seven-fold in a year even as the cost per token collapsed. That pattern, more use swamping cheaper units, is the bull case for the infrastructure. It is a reasonable bet, not a law, and Part 1's bearbox applies here too. References & sources Company activities and figures below are drawn from the secondary sources listed and are as at the companies' most recently reported results referenced there, broadly the first half of the 2026 financial year. Every company figure is market-sensitive and should be confirmed against each company's own ASX announcements and refreshed on publication day. All figures shown in the visuals are original Samso illustrations of the data named in each caption. Figures in this note were checked against the companies’ own ASX presentations and announcements where available (to July 2026); the NextDC OpenAI partnership, DigiCo’s US$750 million Chicago sale, Weebit’s Texas Instruments licence, Goodman’s pipeline, Macquarie’s 47MW facility and Infratil’s 555MW CDC contract were all confirmed against primary sources. This note names companies to illustrate where exposure exists; it is not a recommendation on any of them. Photographs and company diagrams labelled PLATE are reproduced from the companies' public ASX release presentations, with attribution in each caption, and are distinct from the original Samso illustrations labelled FIG. Veye — "Top 5 ASX semiconductor stocks 2026": Weebit Nano (WBT), Archer Materials (AXE), BluGlass (BLG), 4DS Memory (4DS), BrainChip (BRN) descriptions and half-year figures. Stocks Down Under — "Marvell... 3 ASX AI chip stocks WBT AXE BRN" and related coverage: Weebit Nano, Archer Materials and BrainChip technology and status; BrainChip market value and AKD-series roadmap. Stockhead — "Revasum leads a pack of ASX semiconductor stocks...": Revasum (RVS) grinding, polishing and CMP wafer equipment; SILEX (SLX), BrainChip, Weebit Nano, 4DS and BluGlass activity summaries. Silex Systems (SLX) company materials and Stocks Down Under coverage: primary business in laser uranium enrichment technology; "Quantum Silicon" (Q-Si) plant producing enriched silicon-28 for quantum computing. DUG Technology (DUG) FY26 half-year results release and Stocks Down Under coverage: high-performance computing, cloud and geoscience services; revenue growth and cash flow. Stocks Down Under — "The ASX AI infrastructure boom... data centre stocks": NextDC (NXT) 667 MW contracted, A$1.5 bn raise and OpenAI partnership; Macquarie Technology (MAQ) government hosting and 47 MW facility; DigiCo (DGT) Chicago sale and Sydney project; Goodman Group (GMG) pipeline and power capacity; Infratil (IFT) / CDC 555 MW contract and 1 GW-plus contracted capacity. Kalkine and Megaport (MP1) investor materials: network-as-a-service cloud connectivity and AI-workload positioning. AI Magazine — "Top 10 vector databases for AI"; MarketsandMarkets vector database market overview: specialist vector database vendors (Pinecone, Weaviate, Qdrant, Milvus/Zilliz, Marqo) and listed providers offering vector search as a feature (MongoDB, Microsoft, Amazon); no ASX-listed pure-play identified. Reproduced company visuals (PLATES): BrainChip Holdings 2026 AGM presentation (6 May 2026); 4DS Memory Capital Raising Presentation (January 2025); NextDC Investor Presentation (20 April 2026); Goodman Group 1H FY26 Results Presentation (19 February 2026). Each reproduced with attribution in its caption. Cover photo: Silicon wafer researcher, U.S. Department of Energy. Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Silicon_wafer_researcher.jpg). Reproduced photograph, shown faded under a navy overlay on the article thumbnail. The Samso Way – Seek the Research Here at Samso, we pride ourselves on delivering content for investors that is independent and informed by over three decades of experience in the industry. Our content is well-researched and is only created if I see merit in discussing the company's story. Our mission is simple: cut through the noise and spotlight what matters—genuine stories, grounded insights, and real opportunity. Our content is well-researched and is only created if the team sees merit in discussing the company or concept. Investors can explore our three core platforms: Coffee with Samso Samso Insights Samso News There may be numerous paths to success in investing, but the common thread among successful individuals is that they remain committed to making informed decisions. Equip yourself with the right knowledge and tools, and you will be well on your way to achieving your financial goals. Most importantly, investors need to be absolutely diligent in understanding their own risk-reward tolerance and capabilities. Never bite off more than you can chew. As they say, Rome wasn't built in a day, and the Great Wall stood because it took centuries to complete. The Samso Philosophy: Stay curious. Stay sharp. And remember—digging deeper always uncovers the real value. In Life, there is no such thing as a Free Lunch. Never bite off more than you can chew is my parting comment. Happy Investing, and the only four-letter word you need to know is DYOR. To support our independent work, please head over to our Support Page and give us a helping hand in any of the ways listed. This is a new initiative for the Samso Platform, and it was always the concept of Samso when we started this journey in 2018. Disclaimer The information or opinions provided herein do not constitute investment advice, an offer, or solicitation to subscribe for, purchase, or sell the investment product(s) mentioned herein. It does not take into consideration, nor have any regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation, risk profile, tax position and particular, or unique needs and constraints. Read full Disclaimer. About Samso Samso is a trusted platform that equips dedicated investors with up-to-date industry knowledge and insights from top CEOs and thought leaders. By staying informed on business advancements and market trends, investors can enhance their financial decisions through a combination of expert guidance and their own research. Samso Insights | www.samso.com.au | An Investor Lens on ASX-Listed Companies

I use AI in my own work, and I can see how far it extends what one person can do. But when this industry talks about itself, the words get in the way. This Insight takes one real presentation by a leading AI company, quotes the jargon exactly as spoken, and translates it piece by piece, so that by the end you can read any AI announcement and know what is actually being said. WHAT THIS PIECE COVERS 1.00 WHY I AM WRITING THIS The language got between me and the industry. 2.00 THE UMBRELLA WORDS: AI, MACHINE LEARNING AND WHAT AN LLM ACTUALLY IS Five nested words, and the engine sitting behind the app. 3.00 THE TOKEN: THE UNIT EVERYTHING ELSE IS PRICED IN A small piece of a word, and the industry's whole accounting system. 4.00 TRAINING AND INFERENCE: BUILDING THE PLANT AND RUNNING IT The two lives of a model, and the words that belong to each. 5.00 SCALING LAWS, TOKEN EFFICIENCY AND THE DATA WALL Why bigger has rules, and why the data is running out. 6.00 CONTEXT WINDOWS: HOW MUCH THE MODEL CAN HOLD IN ITS HEAD Working memory, measured in tokens. 7.00 GETTING ANSWERS OUT: PROMPTS, REASONING, MULTIMODAL AND LOOKING THINGS UP The words you meet when you actually use the tools. 8.00 AGENTS AND AGENT SWARMS: FROM ANSWERING TO DOING The industry's favourite word of 2026, explained plainly. 9.00 THE WORDS OF THE RACE: OPEN WEIGHTS, FRONTIER, AGI AND THE REST The vocabulary of ambition, and what it is worth. 10.00 FIVE QUESTIONS TO ASK OF ANY AI ANNOUNCEMENT The vocabulary, put to work on a real announcement. 1.00 — WHY I AM WRITING THIS The language got between me and the industry - The AI Token Mystery I am writing this Insight for a simple reason: the language of AI still confuses me. I use AI, and I can see how far it extends what one person can do. But when this industry talks about itself, the words get in the way. To understand any industry, you have to understand what its people are talking about. Nobody in resources would expect a newcomer to know what JORC means, yet AI announcements assume the whole world speaks their language. What settled it for me was a recent presentation by Kimi, one of the Chinese AI companies now competing with the biggest American labs. I watched it wanting to learn, and the words were mind-numbing: token efficiency, optimisers, context length, agent swarms. If I was going to understand what these companies are building, and what the market is paying for, I had to decode the language first. This Insight is that decoding, for me as much as for you. The presentation was given by Yang Zhilin, the founder of Moonshot AI, the Beijing company behind the Kimi models, at NVIDIA's GTC conference in San Jose on 19 March 2026. The session was called "How We Scaled Kimi K2.5". Here is a taste of it, quoted as spoken: If that reads like another language, this piece is for you. By the end, you will be able to re-read that paragraph and follow every word. And because one company from Beijing is not the whole industry, each section pairs the Kimi talk with a second voice, OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Microsoft, NVIDIA, Meta or xAI, saying the same kind of thing in their own words. The jargon is not one company's habit. It is the working language of a global industry that now carries trillion-dollar price tags. 2.00 — THE UMBRELLA WORDS: AI, MACHINE LEARNING AND WHAT AN LLM ACTUALLY IS Five nested words, and the engine behind the app Most confusion starts above the jargon, with words that sound interchangeable but are not. They nest inside each other like Russian dolls, and FIG. 01 draws the nesting. Artificial intelligence (AI) is the whole field: any attempt to make computers do things that normally need human intelligence. Machine learning is the approach that now dominates the field: instead of programmers writing rules, the computer works out its own rules from examples. Deep learning is machine learning done with a neural network, a program loosely inspired by the brain, built from many layers of simple connected units. Generative AI is the branch that produces new material, text, images, video and computer code, rather than just sorting or scoring things. And a large language model (LLM) is the kind of generative AI behind the chat tools: a very large neural network trained on enormous amounts of text to predict what comes next. The letters in GPT describe exactly that: Generative, Pre-trained, Transformer, where the transformer is the 2017 model design that made today's AI work at scale. You do not need to know how a transformer works, only that when you read the word, it means the standard engine design the whole industry builds on. The other distinction worth having is between the engine, the product and the company. The model is the engine. The chatbot or app is the car built around it. The company is the maker. OpenAI makes the GPT models that power ChatGPT. Anthropic makes Claude. Google makes Gemini. xAI makes Grok. Meta built Llama. Moonshot AI makes Kimi. When a headline says "GPT-5.6 beats Gemini", it is comparing engines, not apps, and certainly not businesses. 3.00 — THE TOKEN: THE UNIT EVERYTHING ELSE IS PRICED IN A small piece of a word, and the industry's whole accounting system Now the word in this article's title. A token is a small chunk of text, roughly three-quarters of an English word. Before an AI model reads anything, the text is chopped into these chunks, a step called tokenisation, and everything the model reads and writes is counted in them. OpenAI's own documentation gives the rule of thumb: 1,000 tokens is about 750 words. FIG. 02 shows a sentence cut into tokens; FIG. 03 puts sizes in scale. Why does one small word carry so much weight? Because the token plays three roles at once, and each role turns up in a different kind of announcement. The price role first. FIG. 04 compares what the major labs charged per million tokens in late July 2026. Two things stand out. Output tokens cost more than input tokens everywhere, because reading is done in one parallel pass while writing happens one token at a time and takes more computing effort. And the spread is enormous: from about US$0.28 per million output tokens at the cheapest Chinese model to US$90 at OpenAI's dearest professional tier, a gap of roughly 320 times. Price is a choice about quality, speed and brand, not a fixed cost of the technology. Then the usage role, which produced the most quoted number of 2026. Google's chief executive Sundar Pichai told the company's I/O conference in May that Google's products went from processing 9.7 trillion tokens a month two years ago to about 480 trillion a year ago, to "over 3.2 quadrillion per month" now, with its developer services handling "roughly 19 billion tokens per minute". FIG. 05 draws that curve. NVIDIA's founder Jensen Huang put the same idea in one sentence at GTC, the same conference where the Kimi talk was given: "Tokens are the building blocks of AI... your data center is now a factory to generate tokens." 4.00 — TRAINING AND INFERENCE: BUILDING THE PLANT AND RUNNING IT The two lives of a model, and the words that live inside each Every AI model has two lives. Training is the first: the model is shown trillions of tokens of text and slowly adjusts itself until it can predict language well. It happens once, takes months, and costs an enormous amount. Inference is the second: the finished model answers questions, every day, for everyone. It is the recurring cost of every token sold. FIG. 06 draws the split, in a shape any resources investor will recognise. Inside the model sit its parameters, also called weights: the billions of numbers the model adjusted during training, which hold everything it learned. Model sizes are quoted in parameters the way deposits are quoted in tonnes. Kimi K2, the model in our presentation, has one trillion of them. During training, progress is tracked by a single error score called the loss: the lower the loss, the better the model predicts. The arithmetic runs on GPUs, graphics processors from NVIDIA and others that turned out to be ideal for AI, or on TPUs, the equivalent chips Google designs for itself. And then there is the word that made me stop the Kimi video: the optimiser. The optimiser is the recipe the model follows while it learns, the set of rules deciding how much to adjust after each mistake. Almost the whole industry uses a 2014-era recipe called Adam. Moonshot's claim at GTC was that its new optimiser, called Muon (and MuonClip once stabilised), gets roughly twice the learning out of the same data. That is why Yang Zhilin said the line quoted in Section 1.00: with a two-times token efficiency, "50 trillion tokens" of data behaves like 100 trillion. Not magic; a better recipe. The claim is the vendor's own, from its own paper, and is best read that way. 5.00 — SCALING LAWS, TOKEN EFFICIENCY AND THE DATA WALL Why "bigger" has rules, and why the data is running out The AI boom rests on an empirical observation called the scaling laws: make the model bigger, feed it more data and give it more computing power, all together, and its results improve along a curve you can predict in advance. The landmark papers behind this were published by OpenAI researchers in 2020 and DeepMind researchers in 2022, and the industry has bet hundreds of billions of dollars that the curve keeps holding. OpenAI's Sam Altman stated it plainly in a 2025 essay: "The intelligence of an AI model roughly equals the log of the resources used to train and run it." But one of those three inputs is not like the others. Chips can be bought and models can be enlarged, yet the supply of good training text is finite. The industry calls this the data wall: the highest-quality human-written text, roughly speaking the useful part of the internet, has largely already been used. Anthropic's chief executive Dario Amodei put the underlying puzzle well in a February 2026 interview: "Humans don't see trillions of words. There is an actual sample efficiency difference here", meaning people learn language from far less data than models need. Two responses dominate. One is synthetic data: text generated by AI models to train other AI models. The other is token efficiency: squeezing more learning out of every token you already have, which is exactly what Moonshot's optimiser claim is about, and why a dry-sounding piece of mathematics was the headline of a major conference talk. 6.00 — CONTEXT WINDOWS: HOW MUCH THE MODEL CAN HOLD IN ITS HEAD The working memory, measured in tokens The context window is the model's working memory: the maximum number of tokens it can consider at once, covering both what you give it and what it writes back. Once a conversation or document exceeds the window, the earliest material falls out of view. Window sizes have become a headline specification, and FIG. 07 compares the current flagships. Why the arms race for bigger windows? Because the window sets what kind of work the model can take on. A model that holds a paragraph can answer a question. A model that holds a data room can audit it. In the Kimi talk, this is the second of the three things Moonshot says it scaled: their Kimi Linear design mixes a cheaper form of attention (the mechanism the model uses to weigh which earlier tokens matter) with the standard, expensive kind, in a three-to-one ratio, precisely to make very long working memories affordable. The stated goal: an AI that can run "for days or even weeks" on a single task without losing the thread. Anthropic's marketing makes the same promise from the other side of the Pacific: its Claude Sonnet 4.5 launch boasted that the model "maintains focus for more than 30 hours on complex, multi-step tasks". 7.00 — GETTING ANSWERS OUT: PROMPTS, REASONING, MULTIMODAL AND LOOKING THINGS UP The words you meet when you actually use the tools The vocabulary so far describes how models are built. This section covers the words that describe using them, the ones an investor meets in product launches rather than research papers. A prompt is simply the instruction you type, and prompt engineering is the craft of writing instructions that get better results. A reasoning model is the industry's newest product category: a model that can spend extra time working through a hard problem step by step before answering, producing an internal chain of thought. The extra thinking happens at answer time, so the industry calls it test-time compute, and the crucial commercial detail is that the thinking is billed in tokens like everything else. NVIDIA's Jensen Huang explained it at CES in January 2026 in one line: "We also have test-time scaling, which is another way of saying thinking. You think in real time." And in another: "Instead of a one-shot answer, inference is now a thinking process." Multimodal means one model handling more than one kind of material: text, images, audio and video together. The Kimi presentation is a worked example: Moonshot says K2.5 was the first open model trained on vision and text jointly "from day one" rather than bolting image skills onto a finished text model, and reported a result worth noticing: training the model on vision tasks alone improved its text results too, and a strong text model lifted its vision results. The claim is the vendor's own, but the direction, single models that see and read, is industry-wide. Then there is the machinery for making a model useful on your information. RAG, retrieval-augmented generation, lets a model look answers up in a nominated set of documents instead of relying on what it absorbed in training, which sharply reduces invention. The look-up usually runs on a vector database, a special store that searches by meaning rather than by exact words. Samso has covered vector databases before, in the AI & Capital piece "How to buy the AI build-out on the ASX", where our research found there is no pure-play way to buy one on the ASX. Guardrails are the rules wrapped around a model to stop harmful or off-limits outputs. Which brings us to the industry's most famous word for failure. A hallucination is a confident, fluent, wrong answer. It happens because a language model is a prediction machine: it produces the most plausible next tokens, and plausible is not the same as true. The rate has fallen with each generation, but it has not reached zero, and no vendor claims it has. 8.00 — AGENTS AND AGENT SWARMS: FROM ANSWERING TO DOING The industry's favourite word of 2026 An agent is an AI model given tools and permission to take steps on its own: search the web, run computer code, file the result, then decide what to do next. The adjective agentic now appears in nearly every AI announcement, and it marks the industry's core shift: from software that answers questions to software that completes tasks. The Kimi presentation's third big idea takes this one step further. In an agent swarm, an orchestrator (a lead agent) breaks a large job into pieces and hands them to a team of sub-agents working in parallel, then collects and assembles the results. Yang Zhilin's own analogy was a company: a chief executive decomposing work across departments, with researchers, developers and fact-checkers each doing their part. FIG. 08 redraws the structure he described. Moonshot's stated ambition is swarms of hundreds or a thousand agents finishing tasks fast enough "to produce real economical value". Every major lab is saying a version of the same thing. Google's Sundar Pichai told I/O 2026 "we're firmly in our agentic Gemini era". Microsoft's Satya Nadella told Build 2026 that "agents effectively are a new execution environment... a new paradigm", and described a security system where "over 100 specialized agents are working together to discover, debate and prove exploitable vulnerabilities end to end". Anthropic's Claude launches lead on "long-running agents" that keep checking their own work. When you read "agentic" in an announcement, this is the whole of what is meant: the software acts, in steps, with tools, increasingly in teams. 9.00 — THE WORDS OF THE RACE: OPEN WEIGHTS, FRONTIER, AGI AND THE REST The vocabulary of ambition, and what it is worth The last group of words describes not the machinery but the race itself, and these are the words that move markets. Open weights versus closed is the industry's deepest divide. An open-weight model's parameters can be downloaded and run by anyone, free: this is Kimi, DeepSeek and Alibaba's Qwen, and historically Meta's Llama. A closed or proprietary model can only be used through the maker's paid service: OpenAI's, Anthropic's and Google's flagships. Note what "open" does not include: usually not the training data or the full recipe, so open weights is not quite "open source" in the traditional software sense. The Kimi talk's framing, that open models are "closing the gap" with proprietary ones, is now conventional wisdom even at NVIDIA, whose chief executive told Axios in July 2026: "These Chinese models are excellent... Free AI should be great for chips." That the divide is strategy rather than ideology was proven in April 2026, when Meta, the company that built its AI reputation on giving Llama away, launched the first model from its Superintelligence Labs, Muse Spark, as a closed product, saying only that "we hope to open-source future versions of the model". The open champion went closed the moment it believed it had a lead; the challengers stay open because free distribution is how a challenger wins users from an incumbent. Then the ambition words. A frontier model is simply one of the handful of most capable models in the world at a given moment. AGI, artificial general intelligence, means an AI able to match humans across essentially all thinking work, and superintelligence means exceeding us. These are the words the money is raised on, and the industry's leaders now use them as near-term forecasts, on the record: Mark Zuckerberg in July 2025: "Developing superintelligence is now in sight." Sam Altman in June 2025: "Humanity is close to building digital superintelligence." Google DeepMind's Demis Hassabis on AGI, in 2026: "2030 is when I expect it to arrive, either plus or minus a year." Elon Musk went furthest in a January 2026 podcast, saying he expected AGI "next year". Alignment and safety name the work of keeping such systems doing what we intend; Anthropic in particular builds its brand on it. Three more words complete the set, all live in 2026. Distillation is training a cheap model on an expensive model's answers, the student copying the master's homework; in July 2026, Washington accused Moonshot of doing exactly this to American models, an accusation that is reported and denied, not proven. Sovereign AI is a country deciding it needs its own models, data and data centres rather than renting someone else's, the phrase behind national AI programmes worldwide, including the partnership between OpenAI and Australia's NextDC. And a wrapper is investor slang for a thin product built on someone else's model: worth remembering, because a company whose "AI product" is a wrapper owns a user interface, not the technology. 10.00 — FIVE QUESTIONS TO ASK OF ANY AI ANNOUNCEMENT The vocabulary, put to work Learning the words is only useful if it changes how you read. Here are five questions the vocabulary now lets you ask of any AI announcement, product launch or "AI strategy" slide. What is the unit? Tokens, parameters, users, gigawatts or dollars? Each unit flatters a different thing. A company quoting tokens is bragging about volume; parameters, about size; neither is revenue. Is that a usage number or a money number? "3.2 quadrillion tokens a month" measures work done, not dollars earned, and says nothing at all about profit. Who measured it? Vendor benchmarks are chosen by the vendor, from a rotating menu, after the fact. "Best on X" means best on the test they picked. Independent verification is rare and valuable. Which life of the model is the money for? Training (the build) or inference (the running)? Capital raised "for compute" can mean either, and they have completely different payback profiles. Who pays whom? Agents consume tokens; token sellers promote agents. Chipmakers invest in labs that buy chips. Follow the direction of the enthusiasm and check whether it matches the direction of the money. And now, the test. Here is the passage from Section 1.00 again: "Suppose you have 50 trillion high-quality tokens, and then you apply this new optimizer... all of a sudden you have a two times token efficiency... We introduce this new learning paradigm of agent swarms... at the end of the day, we're going to have a swarm of agents that each of them have a super long context." Read it once more. A company with a fixed supply of training text says its new learning recipe doubles what that text teaches its model; and its software now works as coordinated teams, each member able to hold enormous amounts of material in working memory. That is all it ever said. The ideas are ambitious; the language was the only barrier. The condensed decoder below covers the terms this piece taught. The full glossary, more than 45 terms in plain English, lives permanently on the Samso website, with the downloadable Samso AI Decoder PDF, and every future Samso piece on AI links back to it. References & sources This piece is built on one primary transcript (supplied) and the public statements, documents and pricing pages listed below. Quotes are reproduced verbatim from official transcripts or company pages except where noted as reported through a third-party transcript. Market-sensitive and dated figures (prices, context windows, token volumes) are quoted as at the dates shown and must be refreshed on publication day. No locator map appears because the subject is not geographic (house rule 4.2, waived). All figures are original Samso illustrations. Yang Zhilin (founder, Moonshot AI) — "How We Scaled Kimi K2.5", NVIDIA GTC, San Jose, 19 March 2026. Transcript supplied by Samso; session corroborated by Constellation Research, China Biz Insider and 36Kr coverage. Source of: the opening quotation; MuonClip optimiser and the two-times token efficiency claim; Kimi K2's one trillion parameters; Kimi Linear and the three-to-one attention mix; the agent swarm design and company analogy; K2.5's joint vision-and-text training claims. All capability claims are the company's own account. Jensen Huang (NVIDIA) — GTC 2026 keynote, 16 March 2026, official NVIDIA transcript ("Tokens are the building blocks of AI"; "your data center... is now a factory to generate tokens"; "three scaling laws"); CES 2026 keynote, January 2026, Rev.com transcript ("test-time scaling... another way of saying thinking"; "inference is now a thinking process"); interview with Axios, 22 July 2026 ("These Chinese models are excellent"; "Free AI should be great for chips"). Sundar Pichai (Google) — I/O 2026 opening keynote, 19 May 2026, official written version at blog.google. Source of: 9.7 trillion / ~480 trillion / ~3.2 quadrillion monthly tokens; "roughly 19 billion tokens per minute"; "we're firmly in our agentic Gemini era". Satya Nadella (Microsoft) — Build 2026 opening keynote, 2 June 2026, official Microsoft transcript. Source of: "tokens per dollar per watt"; "agents effectively are a new execution environment"; the 100-plus-agent security example. Sam Altman (OpenAI) — essays at blog.samaltman.com: "Three Observations" (February 2025; the log-of-resources scaling line), "The Gentle Singularity" (June 2025; "Humanity is close to building digital superintelligence"). Dario Amodei (Anthropic) — interview on the Dwarkesh Podcast, February 2026, quoted from the published transcript ("Humans don't see trillions of words..."); Anthropic, "Claude Sonnet 4.5" launch post, 29 September 2025 ("maintains focus for more than 30 hours"). Mark Zuckerberg / Meta — "Personal Superintelligence" letter, meta.com, 30 July 2025 ("Developing superintelligence is now in sight"); "Introducing Muse Spark", about.fb.com, 8 April 2026 ("we hope to open-source future versions of the model"). Demis Hassabis (Google DeepMind) — interview with Fast Company, 22 May 2026 (AGI "2030... plus or minus a year"); Yann LeCun — Davos panel remarks as reported by Fortune, 23 January 2026 ("completely LLM-pilled"; "digging the same trench"). Elon Musk (xAI) — post on X, 17 January 2026 (Colossus 2 "First Gigawatt training cluster in the world"); Moonshots podcast, January 2026, quoted from the published transcript (AGI "next year"). Podcast-transcript quotes to be re-verified against audio before publication. Pricing and specifications — official pricing/documentation pages of OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, xAI, Moonshot AI and DeepSeek, all fetched 26 July 2026. Known conflicts noted in the FIG. 04 and FIG. 07 captions (Claude context-window tiers; OpenAI's newest window unconfirmed on an official page; DeepSeek's launch-versus-current prices). Refresh all on publication day. OpenAI Help Center — "What are tokens and how to count them" (the 1,000-tokens-per-750-words rule). Scaling-law literature — Kaplan et al., "Scaling Laws for Neural Language Models" (2020); Hoffmann et al. ("Chinchilla"), "Training Compute-Optimal Large Language Models" (2022). Moonshot distillation accusation — reported by US press in July 2026 following the Kimi K3 release; an accusation, denied and unproven, and described as such in Section 9.00. Photographs (PLATE 1 to PLATE 5) — Unsplash, used under the Unsplash licence: Maximus Beaumont (taxi meter); Taylor Vick (data centre); Vishnu Mohanan (circuit board); Susan Q Yin (library); Frames For Your Heart (construction cranes). All retrieved 27 July 2026. Samso archive — "Tokens Are the Bill, Not the Value" (AI & Capital, Part 1, published 25 July 2026; source of the volume-versus-value framing revisited in Sections 3.00 and 10.00, and first publication of the Google token-volume figures redrawn here as FIG. 05) and "How to buy the AI build-out on the ASX" (AI & Capital, Part 2; source of the ASX vector-database finding cited in Section 7.00; link to be added on publication). Cover photo: Black Computer keyboard, Samiknoov. 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The iron ore market is splitting in two. The product that pays today's dividends, 62% Fe fines (62% iron content) into Chinese blast furnaces, carries a softening price outlook on every published forecast. The product with the strongest structural story, high-purity magnetite feed for direct-reduction steelmaking, sits mostly in projects that are the hardest to finance. That is the dilemma. This Insight lays out both sides, maps the exposure on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX), and closes not with a directive but with the what-ifs a reader needs to think through for their own path. Samso Insights Investor Awareness Commodity Series Samso Market Strategy WHAT THIS PIECE COVERS 1.00 THE DILEMMA Two markets hiding inside one commodity. 2.00 WHERE THE PRICE SITS A controlled softening rather than a collapse. 3.00 TWO MARKETS, ONE ORE What DR grade actually means, and what it does not. 4.00 THE DEMAND QUESTION Real growth, with uncertain timing. 5.00 THE PRICE OF PURITY What the premium is, and what it is not. 6.00 THE VALE VARIABLE Mega Hubs, briquettes, and a warning sitting inside an opportunity. 7.00 THE ASX REGISTER What all of this means on the Australian market. 8.00 HOW TO READ A MAGNETITE STORY Six layers to work through before putting a value on anything. 9.00 THE WHAT-IFS Why this Insight ends without a tip, on purpose. 10.00 REFERENCES & SOURCES Every figure and claim, sourced. 1.00 — THE DILEMMA Two markets are hiding inside one commodity For thirty years the iron ore story has been a single sentence: dig haematite in the Pilbara, ship it to China, collect the margin. That sentence built the largest export industry Australia has ever had. It is now becoming two different sentences, and they point in different directions. The first market is bulk iron units: products grading 58% to 62% Fe that feed conventional blast furnaces (BF). It remains enormous, and it will not disappear. But its marginal pricing is set by declining Chinese steel output, a weak Chinese property sector, and a wave of new supply from Simandou in Guinea, Brazil and Australia itself. The Australian Government's June 2026 Resources and Energy Quarterly (REQ) expects iron ore export earnings to fall from A$117 billion in 2025-26 to A$77 billion in real terms by 2030-31. The second market is premium low-gangue iron units for direct-reduction (DR) steelmaking: 65% Fe fines, DR-grade pellet feed, DR pellets, briquettes and eventually hot briquetted iron (HBI), the feed that DR plants and electric-arc furnaces (EAF) need. Gangue is the waste material in ore, mostly silica and alumina, and in an electric furnace it does not burn away. It becomes slag, consumes electricity and destroys productivity. That is why direct-reduction customers pay for purity, not just for iron. The tension in this Insight's title sits between those two markets. The companies with the safest cash flows are concentrated in the first one, which has the weakest price trajectory. The strongest structural growth story belongs to the second, yet most of the vehicles offering exposure to it are development projects that need billions of dollars, years of approvals and customer qualification programs that can outlast an investor's patience. The superior product does not automatically produce the superior investment. FIG. 01 below maps where the assets behind both markets sit, from the Labrador Trough, Sweden and the Gulf to the Australian register that Section 7 works through in detail. 2.00 — WHERE THE PRICE SITS A controlled softening, not a collapse At the time of writing, mid-July 2026, the benchmark price for 62% Fe fines delivered into China, quoted on a CFR basis (cost and freight, meaning the price includes ocean shipping to the destination port), is trading at approximately US$100 to US$105 per tonne, having dipped briefly below US$100 in late June before recovering. That is a healthy price for the big, low-cost Australian producers, whose average cash costs the Australian Government estimated at roughly US$33/t in 2025, before sustaining capital, royalties, freight and corporate costs. The forecasts, set out in TABLE 01, all lean the same way. One note on the pricing bases in the table: CFR prices include ocean freight to the destination, while FOB (free on board) prices are quoted at the export port and exclude the ocean freight leg. The decks are a base case, not a guarantee. Chinese stimulus, a bad cyclone season, mine disruptions or a delay at Simandou could hold the benchmark above US$100/t for longer than any of them implies. A softening benchmark also does not make low-cost producers uninvestable; it means their returns lean on volume, cost control and capital management rather than on a rising price. That distinction runs through the rest of this note. 3.00 — TWO MARKETS, ONE ORE What "DR grade" actually means The most common mistake in this theme is treating high-grade concentrate, pellet feed, DR pellets and HBI as interchangeable. They are separate products with separate customers, and the difference is where the risk and the margin sit. TABLE 02 sets out the ladder from mined product to furnace metal. Chemistry is the entry ticket. Representative Midrex specifications put DR pellets (FIG. 03) at a minimum of about 67% Fe, with silica commonly 1.0% to 3.0%, alumina 0.2% to 3.0% and sulphur around 0.01% maximum, and the long-run aspiration for premium feed is more than 67% Fe with under roughly 2% combined gangue. These are operating ranges, not universal contract limits; individual plants can demand tighter numbers. Chemistry alone, however, is not the product. A pellet must survive handling, reduction and discharge without breaking down, swelling or sticking together, and the reduced iron that comes out of the furnace may hold only about 25% to 35% of the parent pellet's strength. A concentrate with a spectacular headline grade can still fail as DR feed. Hydrogen reduction does not remove these requirements either: Midrex trials of commercial pellets at around 67.6% to 68.3% Fe found hydrogen reduction faster than natural-gas reduction, with similar or slightly better product strength, but pellet structure remained decisive. Every new source still faces plant-specific qualification that can take years. FIG. 04 traces the full chain from orebody to electric furnace, and the four questions an investor should be able to answer at each step. Magnetite deposits hold a natural advantage in this market. Grinding and magnetic separation can strip out most of the waste before the ore ever leaves the site, producing concentrates of 67% to 71% Fe with controllable chemistry. Haematite direct-shipping ore cannot usually be engineered that way. The price of that advantage is capital: concentrators, power, water, tailings storage and often a pellet plant. Fine grinding is energy hungry, and a high-grade product made with expensive or emissions-intensive electricity is not automatically a low-carbon product. 4.00 — THE DEMAND QUESTION Real growth, uncertain timing Global direct reduced iron production reached approximately 140.8 million tonnes (Mt) in 2024, a fourth consecutive record and roughly 30% above 2019 (FIG. 05). The direction is not in dispute. The timing and the scale are. The market a new entrant actually has to sell into is far smaller and far more concentrated than the headline suggests. Of the pellets sold openly to DR plants in 2024, a pool of about 47.7 million tonnes, three suppliers accounted for almost three-quarters (FIG. 06). Midrex's December 2025 scenario work models merchant-ore DRI production more than doubling from about 32.9 Mt in 2024 to 72.4 Mt in 2034 (FIG. 07), but nearly every tonne of that growth comes from plants not yet built. On the pellet side, its 2034 scenarios range from a 5.6 Mt surplus to a 16.4 Mt deficit (FIG. 08) depending on which demand case and which supply case eventuate. Midrex is explicit that these are scenarios, not forecasts. Other published scenarios run hotter. BloombergNEF work reported by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) implies a deficit of roughly 15 Mt by 2030 growing toward 133 Mt by 2040; S&P Global work reported by the same source points to a 70 to 85 Mt shortfall by 2035; and the International Iron Metallics Association has estimated merchant DR-pellet demand rising from about 47 Mt in 2022 to 58.5 Mt in 2026 and 117.3 Mt by 2033, with around 31.6 Mt of the 2033 figure not covered by identified supply. These studies use different definitions, some covering total DR-grade requirements and some only the merchant seaborne pool, and they should not be averaged into a consensus. 5.00 — THE PRICE OF PURITY What the premium is, and what it is not The cleanest public reference for DR-pellet pricing comes from Labrador Iron Ore Royalty Corporation, which reported the Platts DR pellet premium averaging approximately US$42 per tonne in the first quarter of 2026, down from US$45/t a year earlier. That premium is quoted over the 65% Fe high-grade fines index, which itself averaged about US$121/t in the quarter, not over the 62% benchmark. It softened year on year because steelmakers under margin pressure chose immediate cost savings over the efficiency benefits of premium feed. FIG. 09 shows the arithmetic, and it carries a warning: premium products remain cyclical. High-grade premiums widen when steel margins, environmental enforcement and productivity incentives are strong, and compress when mills are simply trying to survive a quarter. High grade is no hedge against a falling benchmark, because DR pricing is built on top of an index that moves with the same steel cycle. The premium is not profit either. A pellet producer pays for conversion, fuel, binders, maintenance, freight and plant utilisation out of it (FIG. 10). Headline premium figures can also mislead. Vale reported a portfolio-wide "all-in premium" of just US$0.90/t in the fourth quarter of 2025, a number that covers its entire sales book of fines, blends and lower-premium products, and says almost nothing about what a qualified DR pellet earns under a long-term contract. The DR market is dominated by such contracts, with premiums often settled quarterly; spot indications can diverge from what established suppliers actually receive. 6.00 — THE VALE VARIABLE Mega Hubs, briquettes, and a warning inside an opportunity Vale is the most important company in this story, because it is not simply planning to sell more pellets. It is building a system: produce or source ore, concentrate it into high-grade feed, agglomerate it near cheap energy and deep ports, and partner with steelmakers who build the DRI and HBI plants next door (FIG. 11). Its proposed Mega Hubs in Oman, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), with studies in Brazil, follow exactly that template. The strategic point of Sohar is uncomfortable for anyone holding a remote deposit purely for its grade: Vale does not need every tonne of DR feed to start life as premium ore. It can ship a broader product to a hub and upgrade it next to the customer. The second Vale variable is the cold-bonded briquette. Vale commissioned its first commercial briquette plant at Tubarão in December 2023 (FIG. 12), has a second plant scheduled before 2027, is testing a DR-specific briquette in cooperation with Midrex, and has studied a 1.5 Mtpa DR briquette plant in Louisiana. Vale claims its low-temperature process can involve lower cost, lower capital intensity and approximately 80% lower production emissions than conventional pelletising. If that qualifies at industrial scale across different shaft furnaces, the briquette becomes a genuine alternative to the indurated pellet, and a ceiling on how far DR-pellet premiums can stretch. 7.00 — THE ASX REGISTER What this means on the Australian market Australia is the world's dominant iron ore exporter, yet almost all of that dominance sits on the wrong side of the grade divide. The ASX exposure to the premium story is real but narrow, and it spans the full spectrum from operating cash flow to pure development option. Each company below gets the case for and the case against. The incumbents: BHP, Rio Tinto and the haematite base The major producers are the first horn of the dilemma in corporate form. Their Pilbara haematite operations are among the lowest-cost mines on earth, and at US$100/t they generate extraordinary cash. On the REQ deck, that cash compresses steadily through 2031, and their returns become a function of volume, cost and capital discipline rather than price. Rio Tinto also holds an important, often overlooked position on the other side of the divide: through the Iron Ore Company of Canada (IOC) it is already one of only three suppliers of DR pellets to the seaborne merchant market, alongside Vale and Samarco. The incumbents are not absent from the premium story. They are simply not priced on it. Fortescue (ASX: FMG): the cautionary success Iron Bridge is Australia's flagship magnetite project (FIG. 13) and the most instructive single data point in this note. It produces a genuine 67% to 68% Fe concentrate, exactly the product the DR transition wants. It also cost approximately US$3.9 billion, arrived a year late, and its ramp-up has been repeatedly extended: after plant reliability problems, Fortescue guided shipments of 10 to 12 million tonnes for the 2026 financial year against a 22 Mtpa nameplate, with full capacity now expected in financial year 2028, a five-year ramp from first production in 2023. Even a company with a fortress balance sheet, existing port and rail, and world-class operating teams found magnetite harder, slower and more expensive than planned. And yet the product is real, it ships, and it gives Fortescue a premium stream its haematite peers lack. Both halves of that sentence are the dilemma. Grange Resources (ASX: GRR): the quiet incumbent Grange is the company the magnetite hopefuls want to become, and the market barely prices it. Savage River in Tasmania has mined magnetite since 1967, and the Port Latta plant produces more than two million tonnes of low-impurity blast-furnace pellets a year, realising prices at a substantial premium to the fines benchmarks; its reported average realised price in the March 2026 quarter was approximately US$126/t. The case against is equally concrete: its pellets are BF-grade rather than DR-grade, its customer base is narrow, Tasmanian costs are rising, and the transition of the North Pit to underground mining is a genuine execution risk even after a positive feasibility study. Grange also holds Southdown near Albany, a large undeveloped magnetite project that is effectively a free option on this entire theme at the company's current valuation, and an option is all it is until somebody funds it. Champion Iron (ASX: CIA): the proof that Tier 1 exists Champion is listed on the ASX but operates in Canada's Labrador Trough (FIG. 14), and it has just done the thing every developer promises. In late June 2026 it announced first production of DR-quality iron ore from its Bloom Lake direct-reduction pellet feed (DRPF) project, completed within its estimated $500 million budget, upgrading half the operation toward a product of up to 69% Fe with combined silica and alumina below 1.2%. Commissioning is still under way: an inaugural Capesize sale of at least 160,000 wet tonnes is expected in the third quarter of 2026, a commercial agreement already covers part of near-term capacity, and commercial production is expected toward the end of the company's financial year, around March 2027. This is what the strongest risk-adjusted version of the DR theme looks like: an existing producer spending incremental capital to upgrade a product it already sells, with real costs, real logistics and real customers. What remains is the ramp and the order book: reaching commercial production on schedule, the premium the market actually pays through a soft steel cycle, and how quickly the rest of the volume finds binding offtake. Iron Bear Resources (ASX: IBR): the giant with a giant bill Iron Bear near Schefferville, also in the Labrador Trough (FIG. 15), is the most ambitious DR story on the ASX. Its owner renamed itself from Cyclone Metals to Iron Bear Resources in January 2026, changing its ticker from CLE to IBR, so the company now carries the name of its defining asset. The numbers: a mineral resource of 13.6 billion tonnes at about 30% Fe under the company's June 2026 update, and a 2025 scoping study outlining a 25 Mtpa operation producing about 16 Mt of roughly 70% Fe blast-furnace concentrate and 9 Mt of 71% Fe DR pellets with around 1.1% silica, pre-production capital of approximately US$4.6 billion and a post-tax net present value (NPV) of around US$9.8 billion. Vale's involvement, a staged agreement under which Vale can invest up to about US$138 million to earn up to 75% of the project, with a decision to mine targeted around 2028, is exactly the kind of strategic validation Section 8 says to look for. The other side of the ledger: the capital requirement is many multiples of the company's market value, the Vale agreement is staged rather than guaranteed, a pre-feasibility study is still in progress, and the history of this sector says the distance between a spectacular study and a financed construction decision is where most shareholder value goes to die, or gets diluted to death. Iron Bear can be a company-maker and a value trap from the same spreadsheet, depending entirely on the funding path. The Champion yardstick: what Iron Bear's discount is really pricing The obvious question follows: if Champion can support a market capitalisation of roughly A$2.4 billion on the back of Labrador Trough iron ore, and Iron Bear Resources trades at roughly A$83 million, is Iron Bear a cheap entry into the same business? The comparison is genuinely worth making, because the similarities are real. The two projects sit about 200 km apart on the same iron formation, would ship through the same rail-and-port corridor to Sept-Îles, target the same DR-quality end market, and both hold major-company validation: Champion through a commercial agreement with a global steel group, Iron Bear through its staged agreement with Vale. On product, Iron Bear's pilot work at 71% Fe with about 1.1% silica sits alongside, and on paper slightly above, the 69% Fe product Champion has just produced. On scale, the 25 Mtpa scoping concept would out-produce Bloom Lake's 15 Mtpa nameplate. Judged purely as orebodies feeding the same future market, a valuation gap of roughly thirty times looks extreme. The gap, however, is pricing real differences, and an investor should be able to name them. Champion's value sits on cash flow that exists: about 15 Mtpa of production, roughly $1.8 billion in annual revenue, and a DR upgrade paid for out of earnings. Iron Bear's value sits on a study. Ownership differs too. Champion owns 100% of Bloom Lake, having bought out the Québec government's 36.8% for C$211 million; if Vale funds Iron Bear through its full earn-in, Iron Bear Resources shareholders could hold as little as 25% of the project. The honest comparison is therefore not company against company. It is a minority share of an unbuilt US$4.6 billion project against full ownership of an operating one. The history behind Champion's valuation is the part the cheap-entry argument most needs to confront. Champion never built Bloom Lake from a small-cap base. Consolidated Thompson built it; Cliffs Natural Resources paid about C$4.9 billion for it near the top of the 2011 market, shut it within four years, and Champion bought the constructed mine and its rail assets out of creditor protection in 2016 for C$10.5 million cash plus about C$43 million in assumed liabilities. Champion's billions were created by buying distressed, already-sunk capital for a fraction of a cent in the dollar and restarting it well. Iron Bear has to do the harder thing: fund a first build. The Australian precedents for greenfield magnetite at that scale are Sino Iron, Karara and Iron Bridge, and in each case the asset eventually worked while early equity carried heavy losses or dilution. TABLE 03 sets the two companies side by side. What could a 25% share be worth? Two pieces of illustrative arithmetic frame the question, and both need their assumptions read as carefully as their answers. The first takes the scoping study at face value: 25% of the US$9.79 billion post-tax net present value is about US$2.4 billion, or roughly A$3.7 billion at an assumed exchange rate of about US$0.66. The second anchors to what the market pays today for producing Labrador Trough tonnes: Champion's approximately A$2.4 billion capitalisation over its 15 Mtpa of capacity implies about A$160 million per producing million tonnes of annual capacity, and Iron Bear's attributable 6.25 Mtpa (25% of the 25 Mtpa concept) on that yardstick is worth about A$1.0 billion. TABLE 04 sets both results against today's market capitalisation. Against a current capitalisation of about A$83 million, either end-state figure is more than ten times today's price, and that is exactly why the assumptions deserve the emphasis. These are values for a delivered project in the 2030s, not fair prices for today. A scoping study carries an accuracy range of tens of per cent in either direction. Pre-production companies almost never trade at the face value of their study NPV; a fraction of it is normal. And the largest unknown is funding: if Iron Bear Resources must fund its 25% share of the roughly US$4.6 billion build, that is in the order of US$1.15 billion against an A$83 million equity base, and the terms on which that money is raised, or the extent to which the Vale agreements carry Iron Bear through construction, will determine how much of any end value today's shareholders actually keep. Readers should verify the carry and funding terms in the definitive agreements before leaning on either number. This is illustrative arithmetic, not a valuation, a forecast or a price target. Read this way, the Champion comparison supports one specific conclusion and no more: the market demonstrably pays billions for qualified, producing Labrador Trough DR-grade iron ore, so the destination Iron Bear is pointed at has proven value. What the comparison cannot do is shortcut the path. Iron Bear today is a low-priced option on that destination, and options of this kind re-rate on milestones rather than on production: the pre-feasibility study due through 2026, each stage of Vale's funding elections, and the decision to mine targeted around 2028. Each Vale dollar validates the project, and each stage also transfers more of it to Vale. Magnetite Mines (ASX: MGT) and Hawsons Iron (ASX: HIO): the Braemar options South Australia's Braemar iron formation hosts two listed development options. Razorback, 240 km northeast of Adelaide (FIG. 16), targets a DR-grade concentrate of about 68.5% Fe from a 3.8 billion tonne resource, sits near open-access rail and a renewables-heavy grid, and in February 2026 became the only iron ore project on the Federal Government's Major Project Status list, a designation that helps with approvals but funds nothing. Hawsons, 70 km from Broken Hill (FIG. 17), targets an ultra-premium concentrate around 69% to 70% Fe using a dry-processing flowsheet, and has a completed pre-feasibility study. Hawsons Iron is also the cautionary tale of this pair. In late 2022 the company paused its own bankable feasibility study, the final study before a build decision, because cost inflation had pushed the projected capital and operating numbers beyond what the project could support. It later re-scoped the project around a smaller, staged development. The episode shows exactly where the fragility in development-stage magnetite sits. The orebody did not change and the product target did not change, but the cost environment moved and the project had to stop. Both hold genuinely DR-capable geology. Both need capital measured against their market values in multiples, plus infrastructure, water solutions, offtake and years of qualification. They are long-duration options on the second market, and options can expire. The history the sector would rather forget Balance requires the record. CITIC's Sino Iron project in the Pilbara was conceived at a capital cost of roughly US$2.5 billion and ended up costing in the order of US$10 to 12 billion, years late. Karara in Western Australia's Mid West consumed well over A$2.5 billion, and Gindalbie Metals shareholders were substantially wiped out before Ansteel consolidated the asset. Both projects, note carefully, now operate and ship premium concentrate. The orebodies were real and the product was good. The equity path was catastrophic anyway. That is the sharpest possible statement of the dilemma: in magnetite, the asset can win while the shareholder loses. TABLE 05 summarises the seven exposures and the case for and against each. 8.00 — HOW TO READ A MAGNETITE STORY The framework before the valuation Before assigning any DR-grade value to a project, an investor should be able to tick through six layers of evidence, in roughly this order of difficulty. Complete chemistry, not just iron. A company reporting "70% Fe concentrate" has started the work, not finished it. Silica, alumina, phosphorus, sulphur, alkalis and titanium determine whether the product qualifies, and the grade must be achievable at a commercial recovery, grind size and energy cost across the whole deposit, not from a hand-picked composite. Pelletising and reduction testwork. Green-ball formation, fired strength, abrasion, reducibility, swelling, clustering and post-reduction strength, under both natural-gas and hydrogen-rich conditions. Bench-scale chemistry alone does not make DR pellet feed. Delivered cost, not mine-gate cost. A cheap concentrate at the plant can be uncompetitive after grinding power, pelletising, rail, port, shipping and royalties. Compare the cost landed at the customer, and note that the largest variables, grid power price, water, rail distance, port capacity, usually sit outside the mine gate entirely. Conservative pricing. A robust study works at a conservative 65% index, a conservative grade spread and a conservative DR premium. A project that needs both a permanently high iron ore price and a historically elevated premium is a bet on two cycles at once. Capital intensity per annual tonne. Champion's roughly $500 million to upgrade about 7.5 Mtpa of existing capacity and a greenfield project's US$4 billion-plus to build 10 to 25 Mtpa are not the same investment proposition, whatever the resource sizes say. Large resources can hide poor capital efficiency. Funding and dilution. For a small company, the deposit can succeed while the shareholder fails. How much must be raised before a construction decision? Will existing holders retain meaningful ownership? FIG. 18 condenses all of this into the Samso screening frame: product qualification on one axis, execution readiness on the other. TABLE 06 pairs each archetype with what an investor has to believe and what breaks the thesis. 9.00 — THE WHAT-IFS Samso concluding thoughts: a dilemma is not resolved by a tip - the concluding iron ore story investment case. Samso's usual habit is to end with a view. This Insight ends differently, on purpose. The iron ore dilemma does not have a single correct answer, because the answer depends on variables nobody controls and on each reader's own horizon, risk tolerance and need for income against growth. What we can do is lay the plausible futures side by side, with who benefits and who is exposed in each, and let the reader decide which future they are actually prepared to underwrite. The four futures share one thing. In every one of them, an operating asset with a qualified product and a funded balance sheet lands somewhere between fine and excellent, while an unfunded promise lands somewhere between stranded and diluted. The futures disagree violently about which product earns the premium. They agree almost completely about who survives to collect it. 10.00 — REFERENCES & SOURCES References & sources Every figure and claim in this Insight is sourced below. The figures fall into two categories. FIG. 03, 10, 12, 13 and 14 are photographs, and FIG. 15, 16 and 17 are company maps, reproduced from publicly released company materials with the source credited in each caption. All remaining charts and diagrams (FIG. 01, 02, 04 to 09, 11 and 18) are original Samso illustrations of data and concepts from these references. The locator map (FIG. 01) is an original Samso illustration drawn on a public-domain Natural Earth basemap, with deposit positions plotted at approximate true coordinates from company disclosures. Company figures are as at the publication dates shown in their captions. Market-sensitive numbers (spot prices, index averages and premiums) were current at the time of writing in mid-July 2026 and are to be refreshed on publication day. Midrex Technologies, Inc. 2024 World Direct Reduction Statistics (global DRI production of 140.8 Mt in 2024; regional and merchant supply data, including the 47.7 Mt merchant DR-pellet supply pool and producer shares). Midrex Technologies, Inc. "Iron Ore for Direct Reduction: The Challenge Updated", Direct From Midrex, December 2025 (2034 merchant pellet demand scenarios of 104.9 Mt and 110.7 Mt; supply scenarios of 94.3 Mt and 110.5 Mt; merchant-ore DRI base case to 2034; European project delays affecting roughly 17.5 to 18 Mt of pellet demand; DR-grade chemistry guidance; hydrogen reduction trial results). Labrador Iron Ore Royalty Corporation. First quarter 2026 results (Platts DR pellet premium averaging approximately US$42/t in Q1 2026 versus US$45/t in Q1 2025, quoted over the 65% Fe index; 65% Fe index average of approximately US$121/t; commentary on steelmakers prioritising cost savings over premium feed). Vale S.A. Public disclosures and releases (Tubarão briquette plant inauguration, December 2023; second plant and mobile unit; Midrex technical cooperation on DR briquettes; Louisiana 1.5 Mtpa DR briquette plant study; Mega Hub descriptions in Oman, Saudi Arabia and the UAE; Q4 2025 portfolio all-in premium of US$0.90/t; claimed briquette cost and emissions advantages). Vale S.A. and Jinnan Iron & Steel. Sohar concentration project disclosures (approximately 18 Mtpa feed producing approximately 12.6 Mtpa of high-grade concentrate; targeted start around mid-2027; Vale infrastructure commitment of approximately US$227 million; Jinnan investment reported at approximately US$400 million). Australian Government, Department of Industry, Science and Resources. Resources and Energy Quarterly, June 2026 (iron ore export earnings of A$117 billion in 2025-26 declining to A$77 billion in real 2025-26 dollars by 2030-31; 61% Fe FOB price deck of US$91/t in 2026 to US$72/t nominal in 2031; Chinese import projections; Indian steel demand growth of roughly 5.4% annually; Australian average cash costs of about US$33/t in 2025). World Bank. Commodity Markets Outlook (iron ore averaging US$97/t in 2026 and US$95/t in 2027). Fitch Ratings. Metals and mining price assumptions, June 2026 (62% Fe CFR China at about US$100/t for 2026 and US$90/t for 2027). International Energy Agency (hydrogen-based steelmaking cost premium of approximately 50% to 140% over conventional BF-BOF, and natural-gas start-up for most announced near-zero-capable capacity). IEEFA reporting of BloombergNEF and S&P Global DR-grade supply-demand scenarios; International Iron Metallics Association merchant DR-pellet demand estimates (approximately 47 Mt in 2022, 58.5 Mt in 2026 and 117.3 Mt by 2033, the latter with around 31.6 Mt not covered by identified supply, as cited in Fastmarkets pricing notices, April 2026). Champion Iron Limited (ASX/TSX: CIA). ASX/TSX release, 28-29 June 2026 (first production of DR-quality iron ore from the Bloom Lake DRPF Project; completion within the estimated $500 million budget; product of up to 69% Fe with combined silica and alumina below 1.2%; inaugural Capesize sale of at least 160,000 wmt (wet metric tonnes) anticipated in calendar Q3 2026; commercial agreement covering part of near-term capacity; commissioning ongoing, with commercial production expected toward the end of the company's financial year), and quarterly activities reporting. Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG). Iron Bridge disclosures and market reporting (first production April-May 2023 at greater than 67% Fe; 22 Mtpa nameplate; joint venture 69% FMG Magnetite and 31% Formosa Steel IB; May 2025 revised ramp-up guiding FY2026 shipments of 10 to 12 Mt and nameplate in FY2028; total capital of approximately US$3.9 billion). Grange Resources Limited (ASX: GRR). Quarterly reports and announcements (Port Latta pellet production of more than 2 Mtpa; average realised price of approximately US$126/t in the March 2026 quarter; North Pit Underground Definitive Feasibility Study, February 2025; Southdown Magnetite Project). Iron Bear Resources Ltd (ASX: IBR), formerly Cyclone Metals Limited (ASX: CLE); the company changed its name and ticker in January 2026. Iron Bear scoping study, August 2025, and Vale agreement disclosures, February 2025 (mineral resource of 13.6 billion tonnes at 30.03% Fe, including 4.5 Bt indicated at 29% Fe, per the company's June 2026 project update, earlier reported at 16.7 Bt; 25 Mtpa concept producing about 16 Mt of roughly 70% Fe BF concentrate and 9 Mt of 71% Fe DR pellets at about 1.1% silica; pre-production capital of approximately US$4.6 billion; post-tax NPV8 (net present value at an 8% discount rate) of approximately US$9.8 billion; staged Vale funding of up to approximately US$138 million to earn up to 75% of the project; decision to mine targeted around 2028). Magnetite Mines Limited (ASX: MGT). Company disclosures (Razorback DR-grade concentrate target of approximately 68.5% Fe; 3.8 Bt project resource; proximity to rail, grid and Spencer Gulf ports; Federal Major Project Status effective 11 February 2026). Hawsons Iron Limited (ASX: HIO). Company disclosures (target concentrate of approximately 69% to 70% Fe; completed pre-feasibility study; bankable feasibility study paused in late 2022 amid cost escalation and subsequently re-scoped). Bloom Lake ownership history, public record (Cliffs Natural Resources' acquisition of Consolidated Thompson Iron Mines for approximately C$4.9 billion including net debt, announced January 2011; Bloom Lake suspension and creditor protection, 2015; acquisition of the Bloom Lake mine and rail assets by Champion Iron's subsidiary Quebec Iron Ore for C$10.5 million cash plus approximately C$42.8 million in assumed liabilities, completed April 2016; acquisition of the remaining 36.8% minority interest in Bloom Lake for C$211 million, completed around the turn of 2026). Market capitalisations, exchange data, mid-July 2026, approximate and to be refreshed on publication day (Champion Iron approximately A$2.4 billion; Iron Bear Resources approximately A$83 million at about A$0.073 per share). The illustrative valuation arithmetic in Section 7 combines these figures with the Iron Bear scoping study outputs and an assumed AUD/USD exchange rate of approximately 0.66; all inputs are approximate and to be refreshed on publication day. Historical capital outcomes, public record (CITIC Sino Iron: initial estimate of roughly US$2.5 billion against a final cost reported in the order of US$10 to 12 billion; Karara: capital in excess of approximately A$2.5 billion and the effective loss of Gindalbie Metals shareholder value prior to Ansteel consolidation). Figures approximate; readers should consult primary filings. Spot pricing, mid-July 2026 (62% Fe CFR China trading at approximately US$100 to US$105/t across published indices, including a KORE 62% Fe Qingdao print of US$102.73/t on 14 July 2026, after a late-June dip below US$100/t). Reproduced company imagery: iron ore pellet and Port Latta plant photographs (FIG. 03 and 10) from Grange Resources Limited's corporate website, grangeresources.com.au, tonal levels adjusted for print; Vale briquette plant photograph (FIG. 12) by Rafael Coelho / Vale, from Vale's public news releases on the Tubarão briquette plants, December 2023; Iron Bridge photograph (FIG. 13) from Fortescue's public news release "Fortescue's Iron Bridge commences high grade magnetite production", April 2023; Bloom Lake photograph (FIG. 14) from Champion Iron Limited's corporate website, championiron.com; Iron Bear location map (FIG. 15) from the scoping study materials of Iron Bear Resources Ltd, published under its former name Cyclone Metals, as republished by Stockhead, 12 August 2025; Razorback project map (FIG. 16) from Magnetite Mines Limited's website (project map, October 2025); Hawsons location map (FIG. 17) from Hawsons Iron Limited's website, hawsons.com.au. All reproduced with attribution; rights remain with the respective companies and photographers. Natural Earth. Free vector map data, public domain (coastlines used in FIG. 01). Cover photo: GWA narrow-gauge iron ore train, Middleback Range-Whyalla, Alexander Macduff. CC0, via Wikimedia Commons (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:GWA_narrow-gauge_iron_ore_train,_Middleback_Range-Whyalla.jpg). Reproduced photograph, shown faded under a navy overlay on the article thumbnail. The Samso Way – Seek the Research Here at Samso, we pride ourselves on delivering content for investors that is independent and informed by over three decades of experience in the industry. Our content is well-researched and is only created if I see merit in discussing the company's story. Our mission is simple: cut through the noise and spotlight what matters—genuine stories, grounded insights, and real opportunity. 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Manganese has traded in a band for a decade while steelmakers quietly consumed almost all of it. A small, unproven battery-chemistry demand story is now attached to that steel story. On the ASX, a handful of companies sell the actual product and report the revenue. Most do not, yet, though selling the product has not meant an easy margin for everyone who does. One of the two producers covered here reported a manganese division earning barely 5% EBITDA margin over the past half, a reminder that scale alone is not the same as a good return. This Insight sets out the price history, the demand case, and the distance between the two groups, measured in tonnes sold and dollars earned rather than in resource estimates alone. Samso Insights Investor Education Manganese - Bulk Commodity Samso Investing Series Samso Research · Samso Insights · samso.com.au 1.00 —WHY MANGANESE COUNTS, AND WHO SUPPLIES IT Manganese is a grey-white metal that does not occur naturally in pure form and is never mined on its own as a finished metal. It is mined as ore, refined into a ferroalloy, and added to almost every tonne of steel made anywhere in the world. According to the United States Geological Survey (USGS), more than 90% of manganese consumption goes into steelmaking, where it removes sulphur and oxygen impurities during the smelting process and adds strength and wear resistance to the finished alloy. There is no substitute for manganese in steel production at any price the industry has tested. That single fact, more than any other, explains why the manganese market behaves the way it does. Demand tracks the global steel cycle closely, and supply is dominated by a small number of very large deposits. Global manganese ore production in 2025 was concentrated in seven countries, on a manganese-content basis, per the USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026. TABLE 01 sets out each country's tonnage side by side. South Africa's Kalahari Manganese Field, in the country's Northern Cape province, and Gabon's Moanda district together account for roughly half of the world's mined tonnage. Australia's contribution comes almost entirely from a single deposit, Groote Eylandt, an island in the Northern Territory's Gulf of Carpentaria that is home to the Groote Eylandt Mining Company (GEMCO) operation. FIG. 01 sets out this country-by-country production picture geographically and locates the named mine sites discussed through the rest of this piece. FIG. 01 — World manganese ore production by country, 2025e, and the named mine sites discussed in this piece. Original Samso illustration of sourced data. Production figures from USGS, Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (manganese-content basis, 2025 estimate). Base map from Natural Earth. An investor reading company announcements should keep this concentration in mind. A handful of deposits, controlled by a handful of companies, set the tonnage and cost curve for the whole seaborne market. Nothing an ASX-listed explorer does changes that curve until it is actually shipping ore at a scale large enough to register against those numbers, which for most of the companies covered in Section 6 of this piece is still some years away. 2.00 —TEN YEARS OF PRICE FIG. 02 tracks the annual average 44% Mn CIF China price, the industry's standard reference point, across the ten years from 2016 to 2025. That price is manganese ore assaying 44% manganese content, delivered Cost, Insurance and Freight (CIF) to a Chinese port, and quoted in US dollars per dry metric tonne unit (US$/dmtu), where one dmtu equals 1% manganese content in one dry tonne of ore. The data for 2016 to 2024 comes from USGS Minerals Yearbook and Mineral Commodity Summaries editions, which in turn report figures compiled by CRU Group. The 2025 figure is USGS's own estimate and is not yet a finalised annual number. FIG. 02 — 44% Mn CIF China ore price, annual average, 2016 to 2025. Original Samso illustration of sourced data. Sourced from USGS Minerals Yearbook (Manganese), 2018 and 2023 editions, and USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries, 2025 and 2026 editions. 2025 figure is a USGS estimate. Overlaid with the reported 2024 intra-year trading range, Fastmarkets high-grade manganese ore index, CIF Tianjin, as reported by Fastmarkets (a separate, higher-frequency index not directly comparable to the USGS annual average). Read as a ten-year run, the price has moved in a band roughly between US$4.34 and US$7.16/dmtu on the USGS annual-average series, with no clear sustained trend up or down. It opened the period at US$4.34/dmtu in 2016, climbed through 2017 and 2018 to a decade high of US$7.16/dmtu, then gave almost all of that gain back by 2020 as global steel demand weakened. It has spent most of the years since inside a narrower band around US$4.50 to US$6.00/dmtu, with the USGS estimate for 2025 sitting at the lower end of that range, US$4.50/dmtu. The one point that departs from this picture is 2024, and it is worth explaining why the chart shows it differently from the other years. The USGS annual-average figure for 2024, US$5.53/dmtu, sits comfortably inside the ten-year band. But a separate, more frequently updated index published by Fastmarkets, tracking high-grade manganese ore delivered CIF Tianjin, reported an intra-year trading range across 2024 of roughly US$3.91 to US$9.01/dmtu, a swing of more than double from low to high within a single calendar year. The two figures are not directly comparable, because the USGS number is an annual average smoothing the whole year, while the Fastmarkets figure captures the peaks and troughs of a market that saw a genuine supply scare in 2024, when flooding damaged rail infrastructure serving South Africa's Northern Cape mining region and disrupted shipments from one of the world's two largest supply regions. Prices spiked sharply on the disruption and fell back once shipments normalised. Investors reading a single annual-average price point risk missing how volatile the underlying trading conditions actually were. The South African rail disruption was not the only supply loss that year. GEMCO, the Groote Eylandt operation that supplies almost all of Australia's manganese and is covered in detail in Section 5, suspended operations entirely in March 2024 after Tropical Cyclone Megan brought close to 600 millimetres of rain over a single weekend and damaged the wharf the mine uses to load ore for export. South32, GEMCO's majority owner and operator, did not resume export sales from the site until 19 May 2025, following a wharf rebuild the company says involved more than 317,000 hours of work and the removal of close to 1,700 tonnes of steel and concrete debris from the seabed. Sales were not expected to return to normalised rates until the 2026 financial year. For more than a year, the market lost one of the two operations discussed in this piece that ship manganese ore at genuinely large scale, at the same time as the South African rail network was constrained. South32 gave its own view of where the price goes from here in a May 2026 investor presentation, telling the market it expects the long-term price to be set by higher-cost, marginal South African supply that is progressively moving underground over time. That is a company's own forward-looking view, not an independent forecast, and South32 has an obvious interest in a constructive pricing outlook given its own exposure to the commodity, but it is worth weighing against the decade-long price band in FIG. 02 all the same. 3.00 —WHERE DEMAND IS HEADED The starting point for any manganese demand forecast is steel, because steel is where the demand already sits. Global crude steel production, tracked by the World Steel Association (worldsteel), grew from 1,626 million tonnes in 2015 to a peak of 1,963 million tonnes in 2021, before easing back to 1,849 million tonnes in 2025, plotted in FIG. 03a. That is a market that has grown over the decade but is not growing in a straight line, and it is the single largest driver of manganese demand by a wide margin. FIG. 03 — (a) World crude steel production, 2015 to 2025. (b) Manganese ore end-use split, 2024. Original Samso illustration of sourced data. Steel data sourced from World Steel Association, World Steel in Figures 2026. End-use split sourced from International Manganese Institute (IMnI), 2024 Annual Review, ore-consumption basis. The USGS states steel's global share as "more than 90%," while the two industry bodies use different underlying bases for the calculation, which is why the figures differ. On the International Manganese Institute's own figures, set out in FIG. 03b, steel alloys accounted for roughly 96% of manganese ore consumption in 2024, with battery materials at roughly 3% and agriculture (manganese is also a micronutrient used in fertiliser) at roughly 1%. The USGS states the steel share more simply as "more than 90%" of global manganese use. The two bodies calculate the split on slightly different bases, which is why the numbers are not identical, but both agree the story is overwhelmingly a steel story today. The demand narrative that is newer, and that gets far more attention in investor presentations than its current 3% share of the market would suggest, is battery-grade manganese. High-purity manganese sulphate monohydrate (HPMSM) is a refined manganese chemical used to make cathode material for lithium manganese iron phosphate (LMFP) batteries, a lower-cost electric-vehicle battery chemistry that some manufacturers are pursuing as an alternative to nickel-cobalt-manganese (NCM) chemistries. Several of the ASX-listed companies covered later in this piece, most notably Firebird Metals, are explicitly targeting this HPMSM market rather than the traditional ore-and-alloy trade. It is not only small explorers making that bet. South32, the diversified major discussed at length in Section 5 for its GEMCO ore business, is also developing an early-stage battery-grade manganese deposit of its own, at a project unrelated to GEMCO, and Section 5 covers what that project is and is not yet. 4.00 —AUSTRALIA'S OWN MANGANESE GEOGRAPHY Australia's manganese production is smaller than South Africa's or Gabon's in absolute terms, but it is genuine production, not a resource story. Two operations account for essentially all of the country's current mined tonnage. GEMCO, on Groote Eylandt in the Northern Territory's Gulf of Carpentaria, is majority-owned and operated by South32 and is one of the largest manganese mines in the world by tonnage. Bootu Creek, in the Barkly region of the Northern Territory and owned by OM Holdings, was a working mine until December 2021 and has been on care and maintenance since. PLATE 01 shows part of the site today, and Section 5 covers what that means for OM Holdings' current business in detail. PLATE 01 — The GoGo and Xhosa waste rock dumps at Bootu Creek, looking south east, photographed during rehabilitation works. Reproduced from OM Holdings Limited, Annual Report 2025 (year ended 31 December 2025), "Bootu Creek Mine Operational Review," Figure 4, page 21. Beyond these two, Western Australia's Pilbara region hosts the bulk of the country's manganese exploration and development activity, discussed company by company in Section 6. Element 25's Butcherbird project, Firebird Metals' Oakover project, Black Canyon's Balfour Manganese Field and Wandanya project, and Accelerate Resources' Woodie Woodie North project all sit within a few hundred kilometres of one another in the same broad geological province. This province is distinct from and unrelated to the older, established Woodie Woodie mine operated by a separate company, Consolidated Minerals (ConsMin). FIG. 04 maps these Northern Territory and Western Australian sites together. FIG. 04 — Australia's manganese producers and developers, Northern Territory and Western Australia Pilbara sites discussed in this piece. Original Samso illustration of sourced data. Site positions on this map are schematic and may not reflect each deposit's exact location. WA Pilbara sites are positioned from company-disclosed distances and bearings from Newman and Marble Bar (see References), not survey-grade coordinates. Site locations compiled from company ASX announcements and project pages cited in Sections 5 and 6. 5.00 —THE PRODUCERS, SELLING THE PRODUCT Three ASX-listed names are covered here because each one currently converts manganese into reported revenue, though the way each does so differs enough that lumping them together as "producers" without qualification would flatten an important distinction. TABLE 02 summarises the three companies side by side, and the paragraphs below explain the differences the table alone cannot show. South32 Limited (ASX: S32) is a diversified major miner, and manganese is one of several commodities in its portfolio rather than its sole focus. Its Australia Manganese division, built around GEMCO, produced 3,031 thousand wet metric tonnes (kwmt) and sold 3,598 kwmt in the year to 30 June 2026, at an average realised price of US$4.23/dmtu FOB, per the company's June 2026 quarterly report. South32 also holds an equity interest in South Africa Manganese. Across the six months to 31 December 2025, the combined Manganese segment (Australia and South Africa) reported underlying revenue of US$473 million, of which Australia Manganese contributed US$306 million at an EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) of US$107 million, and South Africa Manganese contributed US$167 million at a considerably thinner EBITDA of US$8 million. Manganese is a meaningful but not dominant slice of a group that reported US$4,008 million in total underlying revenue for the same half. South32's market capitalisation was approximately A$17.46 billion as at 1 July 2026. Those FY26 Australia Manganese figures describe a mine recovering from an extended shutdown, not a steady multi-year run rate, and Section 2 sets out why. GEMCO was shut entirely between the cyclone damage of March 2024 and the resumption of export sales on 19 May 2025, so FY26 is the first full financial year of the ramp back towards normal shipping volumes, and South32's own cost-analysis disclosure attributes part of the half-on-half increase in the group's cost base directly to Australia Manganese "returning to normalised production rates." South32 also holds a second, much smaller manganese asset with nothing to do with GEMCO or the ore-and-alloy trade described elsewhere in this piece. Clark, part of the company's Hermosa project in Arizona, is described by South32 as a co-located battery-grade manganese deposit with demonstrated capability to produce HPMSM for North American customers. PLATE 08 shows the Clark exploration site, where an exploration decline (an underground access tunnel driven for sampling and study purposes, not yet a production mine) was completed in the June 2026 quarter. Clark remains at an early stage relative to GEMCO, with no production, Ore Reserve or production-start timeline yet disclosed, but its existence is a reminder that even the industry's most conventional ore producers are positioning for the battery-demand story from Section 3, not only the ASX-listed explorers. PLATE 08 — The Clark deposit exploration site at South32's Hermosa project, Arizona, described by the company as a co-located battery-grade manganese deposit. Reproduced from South32 Limited, "2026 Half Year Financial Results," investor presentation, 12 February 2026, page 27. Jupiter Mines Limited (ASX: JMS) is a more direct manganese play, but its own financial statements can mislead an investor who does not read the structure carefully. Jupiter holds a 49.9% beneficial interest in the operating entity behind the Tshipi Borwa mine in South Africa's Kalahari Manganese Field, one of the largest and lowest-cost manganese operations in the world. Tshipi itself, on a 100% basis, produced 966,183 tonnes and sold 943,740 tonnes in the June 2026 quarter, generating quarterly EBITDA of A$34.2 million and net profit after tax of A$21.4 million at an average FOB cash cost of production of US$2.48/dmtu, a genuinely low cost base. But Tshipi is equity-accounted rather than consolidated into Jupiter's own accounts, so Jupiter's own reported parent-company revenue is comparatively small, A$4.3 million for the six months to 31 December 2025, mostly marketing-fee income from handling Jupiter's 49.9% marketing share of Tshipi's output (A$9.3 million for the full 2026 financial year). An investor reading only Jupiter's headline revenue line without understanding this structure would badly understate the scale of the underlying operation Jupiter is exposed to. Jupiter's market capitalisation was approximately A$521 million as at 31 July 2026. PLATE 02 shows the mine's location and its rail and port links to the coast. PLATE 02 — Tshipi Manganese Mine, regional rail lines and port locations, and other mines of the Kalahari Manganese Field (inset). Reproduced from Jupiter Mines Limited, Q4 FY2026 Quarterly Activities Report, 31 July 2026, Figure 1, page 7. OM Holdings Limited (ASX: OMH) is the case that most needs unpacking, because on the surface it looks like a manganese miner and, in practice, it no longer is one. OMH's Bootu Creek mine in the Northern Territory has been on care and maintenance since January 2022, and a 2024 to 2025 trial to reprocess Bootu Creek's low-grade stockpiles through an on-site plant achieved only partial success (30 to 33% manganese content against a 35% target) before the site was returned to care and maintenance again in 2025. OMH's FY2025 annual report shows the company exported just 10,546 tonnes of manganese product that year, drawn down from existing stockpiles rather than fresh mining, a fraction of the 191,696 tonnes it exported in FY2022 and the 697,328 tonnes it exported in FY2021. OMH's current business is overwhelmingly a smelting and trading operation, not a mining one. Its Sarawak, Malaysia ferroalloy smelter produced 191,087 tonnes of ferrosilicon and 311,791 tonnes of manganese alloys in FY2025 at 95.9% average furnace utilisation, and the company's FY2025 group revenue of US$636.3 million was generated almost entirely through its Marketing & Trading segment (US$535.5 million) and Smelting segment (US$100.7 million), with essentially no external revenue booked to the Mining segment. OMH also fully exited its remaining stake in Tshipi during this period, selling its 26% interest in Ntsimbintle Mining Pty Ltd (representing an effective interest of roughly 13% in Tshipi Borwa) to Exxaro Resources for approximately ZAR 1.86 billion, a transaction that completed on 27 February 2026. OMH's market capitalisation was approximately A$168 million as at 13 July 2026. PLATE 03 shows the Samalaju smelter in operation, the business that now accounts for almost all of OMH's revenue. PLATE 03 — The stoking process at the Samalaju ferroalloy smelting complex, Sarawak, Malaysia. Reproduced from OM Holdings Limited, Annual Report 2025, "Processing and Smelting Operational Review: Samalaju Smelting Complex," page 14. 6.00 —THE EXPLORERS, THE DISTANCE STILL TO TRAVEL None of the four companies in this section currently generate meaningful revenue from selling manganese. Each is at a different stage of the path from exploration to production, and the differences between those stages, set out in TABLE 03, are the point of this section. Element 25 Limited (ASX: E25) is the most advanced of the four, and does not fit neatly into either the producer or explorer category. It has a trading history. Its Butcherbird project in the WA Pilbara generated real, if modest and loss-making, manganese sales in the recent past, A$1.88 million in revenue in FY2025 against A$5.36 million in cost of sales, down sharply from A$13.3 million in revenue the prior year, as its small-scale legacy operations wound down. PLATE 06 shows ore being loaded during that Stage 1 pilot phase. PLATE 06 — Manganese ore loadout during Stage 1 pilot operations at Butcherbird. Reproduced from Element 25 Limited, "Building a Global Manganese Business," Investor Update presentation, July 2026, page 7. The company is now building a much larger operation. A January 2025 Feasibility Study underpins a stated Ore Reserve of 101.4 million tonnes at 10.4% manganese (10.54 million tonnes of contained manganese), targeting production of 1.1 million tonnes per annum over an 18-plus year mine life. Construction is underway, backed by an approved A$50 million debt facility from the Northern Australia Infrastructure Facility (NAIF), with commissioning targeted for the first quarter of 2027. PLATE 07 shows the logwasher, the first major item of processing equipment for the expanded plant, having arrived at the Port of Fremantle by the time of the company's July 2026 investor presentation. PLATE 07 — The logwasher, the first main item of the Butcherbird Expansion Project's process plant, arriving at the Port of Fremantle after shipment from its German manufacturer. Reproduced from Element 25 Limited, "Building a Global Manganese Business," Investor Update presentation, July 2026, page 10. On 3 August 2026, Element 25 announced a binding, take-or-pay offtake agreement with OM Materials (S) Pte Ltd, a subsidiary of OM Holdings, the same company discussed in Section 5, covering 100% of the manganese concentrate to be produced from the expanded operation for an initial five-year term with an option to extend for a further five years. The agreement gives Element 25 a contracted buyer for the expanded project's output on market-linked pricing, though it remains subject to conditions precedent, including board approval and the NAIF project financing becoming unconditional. Element 25's market capitalisation was approximately A$75 million as at 13 July 2026. Firebird Metals Limited (ASX: FRB) holds the Oakover project in the WA Pilbara and is explicitly pursuing the battery-chemistry demand story described in Section 3, aiming to build a vertically integrated business from ore through to HPMSM (battery-grade manganese sulphate). Its JORC Mineral Resource, last upgraded in March 2023, stands at 176.65 million tonnes at 9.9% manganese, including 105.78 million tonnes in the higher-confidence Indicated category. The company completed a Scoping Study on the Oakover deposit's DMS concentrate in August 2023. A later study, reported in May 2024, covered a proposed downstream plant in China that would convert manganese ore into battery-grade manganese sulphate, with a projected capital cost of US$83.5 million for a first-stage capacity of 50,000 tonnes a year of manganese sulphate plus 10,000 tonnes a year of manganese tetraoxide. That later study addresses the China processing plant rather than mine development at Oakover itself, and Samso found no evidence of a Pre-Feasibility or Definitive Feasibility Study covering the Oakover deposit as at the time of writing. Firebird has no current manganese sales revenue. Its market capitalisation was approximately A$31 million as at 24 July 2026. Black Canyon Limited (ASX: BCA) holds the largest resource base of the four, spread across roughly 2,000 square kilometres of tenure in the Pilbara. Its Balfour Manganese Field carries a stated Mineral Resource, as at October 2025, of 315 million tonnes at 10.5% manganese (33.1 million tonnes of contained manganese). That resource splits across several sub-deposits, including KR1 and KR2 (a combined 104 million tonnes at 10.3% manganese), Flanagan Bore (171 million tonnes at 10.3% manganese) and Balfour East and Damsite (40 million tonnes, entirely in the lower-confidence Inferred category, at 11.9% manganese). Black Canyon completed a Scoping Study covering the KR1 and KR2 deposits in July 2024, modelling a 16-year mine plan and putting total project capital expenditure at approximately A$84 million, a figure the company itself named as a funding requirement well above its current market capitalisation of approximately A$50 to A$63 million (the range reflects two data points from different dates in mid-2026). Samso found no evidence of a subsequent Pre-Feasibility or Definitive Feasibility Study for Black Canyon's manganese projects as at the time of writing. Black Canyon has no current manganese sales revenue. PLATE 04 shows the company's own site layout for the KR1 and KR2 deposits, the most advanced part of the Balfour field. PLATE 04 — Proposed site layout for the KR1 and KR2 deposits, tenement E46/1383, Balfour Manganese Field. Reproduced from Black Canyon Limited, Balfour Manganese Field project page, blackcanyon.com.au, accessed August 2026. Accelerate Resources Limited (ASX: AX8) is the earliest-stage of the four and the smallest by market capitalisation, approximately A$7 million as at 31 July 2026. Its Woodie Woodie North project in the Pilbara, unrelated to the established Woodie Woodie mine operated by a separate company, carries an Inferred Mineral Resource of just 1.2 million tonnes at 19.1% manganese, a comparatively high grade. The project also carries a non-JORC Exploration Target of 5.3 to 10.7 million tonnes at 10 to 19% manganese, a figure that under the JORC Code is explicitly not a resource estimate and should not be treated as one. Recent rock-chip sampling has returned assays as high as 59.3% manganese from surface targets the company describes as untested by drilling. Accelerate Resources has no current manganese sales revenue and no Scoping Study, Pre-Feasibility Study or Definitive Feasibility Study on this project. PLATE 05, the company's own tenement map, marks its distance from the older, unrelated Woodie Woodie mine to the south. PLATE 05 — Woodie Woodie North Manganese Project tenement map, East Pilbara, showing the manganese corridor and, to the south, Consolidated Minerals' unrelated, established Woodie Woodie mine. Reproduced from Accelerate Resources Limited, Woodie Woodie North Manganese Project page, ax8.com.au, Figure 1, accessed August 2026. 7.00 —THE GAP, MEASURED Set the two groups side by side and the gap is not a matter of degree, it is a difference in kind. South32's Australia Manganese division alone sold 3.6 million tonnes of ore in a year. Jupiter Mines' Tshipi interest sold nearly a million tonnes in a single quarter. Between them, the explorers and developers covered in Section 6 sold effectively zero tonnes of manganese in the same period, Element 25's small legacy sales aside. The revenue gap follows the same pattern, hundreds of millions of dollars a year at South32's Manganese segment, tens of millions at Jupiter Mines' underlying Tshipi interest, and, for the four explorers combined, a rounding error, set out measure by measure in TABLE 04. None of this means the explorers are wrongly priced, or that the producers are the only sensible way to gain exposure to manganese. A resource in the ground that a company has not yet mined carries genuine optionality. If the price moves, if a study proves the economics up, or if a partner or a debt facility de-risks the funding, an explorer's share price can move a great deal faster than a large diversified producer's. Element 25's move from a struggling small-scale miner to a funded, under-construction 1.1Mtpa project inside two years is exactly that kind of re-rating in progress. Its 3 August 2026 binding offtake agreement with OM Materials is the latest step in that de-risking, giving lenders a contracted buyer to point to before construction is even complete. But optionality is not revenue, and a JORC Mineral Resource, however large the tonnage, is not a sale. References & sources Figures marked VERIFIED were read by Samso directly from the primary source document listed. Figures marked AS REPORTED were sourced from a secondary source (a data aggregator, a news service, or a regulatory-filing mirror) that Samso was not able to independently cross-check against the primary company document. The secondary source is named in each case. Manganese-market-wide figures (world production, price history, steel demand, end-use split) are credited to the named industry bodies (USGS, worldsteel, IMnI) throughout. FIG. 01 to FIG. 04 are original Samso illustrations built from the sourced data listed in each caption, not reproductions of a single published chart. PLATE 01 to PLATE 08 are real photographs and maps reproduced directly from the named company document or company website, each credited to its document, figure number and page, or accessed date, in its own caption, and none has been redrawn or altered by Samso beyond cropping to isolate the figure. USGS, "Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Manganese," US Geological Survey, February 2026. VERIFIED USGS, "Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025: Manganese," US Geological Survey, 2025. VERIFIED USGS, "Minerals Yearbook: Manganese," 2018 and 2023 editions, US Geological Survey. VERIFIED Fastmarkets, high-grade manganese ore index, CIF Tianjin, 2024 trading range as reported. AS REPORTED World Steel Association, "World Steel in Figures 2026." VERIFIED International Manganese Institute (IMnI), "2024 Annual Review," manganese ore end-use split. VERIFIED South32 Limited, "Quarterly Report: June 2026," 20 July 2026, distributed via Investegate (RNS regulatory mirror). AS REPORTED South32 Limited, "2026 Half Year Financial Results," investor presentation, 12 February 2026, including the Clark deposit exploration site photograph (page 27), reproduced as PLATE 08. VERIFIED South32 Limited, "Strategy and Business Update," investor presentation, 12 May 2026. VERIFIED South32 Limited, "Export sales resume at GEMCO," company news release, south32.net, 19 May 2025. VERIFIED Engineering News, "South32 suspends operations at Groote Eylandt," 18 March 2024. AS REPORTED Jupiter Mines Limited, "Q4 FY2026 Quarterly Activities Report," 31 July 2026, including Figure 1 (page 7), reproduced as PLATE 02. VERIFIED Jupiter Mines Limited, "Interim Financial Report and Appendix 4D," 27 February 2026, as reported by TipRanks. AS REPORTED OM Holdings Limited, "Annual Report 2025" (year ended 31 December 2025), lodged with ASX 22 April 2026, including Figure 4 (page 21), reproduced as PLATE 01, and the Samalaju smelting complex photograph (page 14), reproduced as PLATE 03. VERIFIED Element 25 Limited, "Annual Report" (year ended 30 June 2025), lodged with ASX 25 September 2025. VERIFIED Element 25 Limited, "Building a Global Manganese Business," Investor Update presentation, July 2026, including the Stage 1 pilot ore loadout photograph (page 7), reproduced as PLATE 06, and the Fremantle logwasher arrival photograph (page 10), reproduced as PLATE 07. VERIFIED Element 25 Limited, "Element 25 Signs Long-Term Binding Manganese Offtake Agreement with OM Materials," ASX announcement, 3 August 2026. VERIFIED Firebird Metals Limited, "Firebird Grows Oakover Indicated Resource," ASX announcement, 23 March 2023. VERIFIED Firebird Metals Limited, manganese sulphate downstream processing feasibility study, reported on or about 14 to 15 May 2024, as covered by Proactive Investors and INN Investing News Network. Samso could not confirm the exact ASX lodgement date with certainty. AS REPORTED Black Canyon Limited, "KR1 and KR2 Scoping Study" and supporting investor presentation, ASX announcement, 1 July 2024, including the A$84.1 million total project capital expenditure estimate. VERIFIED Black Canyon Limited, Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves statement, blackcanyon.com.au, as at October 2025. AS REPORTED Black Canyon Limited, Balfour Manganese Field project page, blackcanyon.com.au, KR1 and KR2 proposed site layout map, accessed August 2026, reproduced as PLATE 04. AS REPORTED Balfour Downs Station location and distances from Newman and Nullagine, Wikipedia, accessed August 2026, cross-checked against Black Canyon's own Balfour Manganese Field project page. AS REPORTED Firebird Metals Limited, Oakover Project page, firebirdmetals.com.au, and Mining.com.au, "Firebird Metals grows indicated mineral resource by 80% at Oakover Project in WA," for the project's distance from Newman. AS REPORTED Accelerate Resources Limited, Woodie Woodie North project summary, ax8.com.au, resource dated November 2023, exploration updates to January 2026. AS REPORTED Accelerate Resources Limited, Woodie Woodie North Manganese Project page, ax8.com.au, Figure 1 tenement map, accessed August 2026, reproduced as PLATE 05. AS REPORTED Accelerate Resources Limited, MarketScreener release, "Woodie Woodie North Manganese Corridor Created in East Pilbara," for the project's distance from Marble Bar and the existing Woodie Woodie mine. AS REPORTED Element 25 Limited, nsenergybusiness.com project profile, for Butcherbird's distance from Newman. AS REPORTED stockanalysis.com, market capitalisation data for S32, JMS, OMH, E25, FRB, BCA and AX8, various dates July 2026 as cited in text. AS REPORTED Cover photo: Pyrolusite (GeoDIL number - 42), Shannon Heinle. CC0, via Wikimedia Commons (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Pyrolusite_(GeoDIL_number_-_42).jpg). Reproduced photograph, shown faded under a navy overlay on the article thumbnail.

I have been a keen follower of the Kaiser Reef Limited (ASX: KAU) story since it became literally an overnight gold producer. Kaiser made the transition to become a profitable Australian gold producer operating in Tasmania and Victoria when it acquired the Henty Gold Mine. The Company currently owns and operates the Henty Gold Mine in Tasmania and the Maldon Gold Project in Victoria, including the Union Hill Gold Mine and the Porcupine Flat Processing Plant. Gold Bars for All Australian Gold Producers Henty has a Mineral Resource of 438koz @ 3.3g/t Au and Ore Reserves of 199koz @ 3.3g/t Au. Maldon includes Union Hill with a Resource of 186koz @ 4.4g/t Au and a historical production record of over 1.75Moz Au prior to 1926. The two February announcements outline: A defined Inferred Resource for the Union Hill waste dumps (now classified as a stockpile). A forward strategic plan for Henty and Maldon focused on production growth, exploration, and balance sheet management. Kaiser Reef – Defined Low-Grade Gold Stockpile and District-Scale Strategic Plan The 11 February 2026 release confirmed the successful conversion of historical Union Hill waste dumps into a defined Inferred Mineral Resource stockpile. This work provides a quantified low-grade base to support ongoing processing at Porcupine Flat. The 16 February 2026 release outlines Kaiser Reef Limited’s strategic plan for both Henty and Maldon, targeting: Increased production run rate at Henty to 35kozpa Au from late FY27 Near-mine and regional exploration programs Advancement of Union Hill underground works Continued low-grade processing to underpin cash flow Balance sheet reduction initiatives Together, the announcements define both short-term operational continuity and medium-term growth initiatives. Highlights – Union Hill Stockpile Defined and Strategic Growth Path Outlined Union Hill Waste Dump Converted to Inferred Stockpile Resource (Figure 1 and Figure 2) The Union Hill waste dumps have been estimated at: 566kt @ 0.48g/t Au for 8,649oz Au (Classified as Inferred Mineral Resource under JORC 2012) 163 RC drill holes 2,212m of drilling 20m x 10m grid spacing Inverse Distance (ID1) block modelling Top cut of 5g/t Bulk density of 1.91 Processing in January included: 3,234t @ 1.61g/t Au 90.7% recovery 152.3oz Au produced Processing was exclusively Union Hill stockpile material during that period. Figure 1 Union Hill Stockpile (Green) with topography and Union Hill Pit. (source: KAU) Figure 2: Union Hill Waste Dump Drill Hole Locations and Waste Dump Outline (Yellow). (source: KAU) Nuggetty Waste Dump Investigation (Figure 3) At Nuggetty (1.5km north of Union Hill): Approximate area: 16,000m² 321 rock chip samples averaging 1.8g/t Au Permitting underway for reclamation and processing Figure 3 Nuggetty Waste Dum p Outline (Yellow). (source: KAU) Henty Gold Mine – Production and Exploration Plan (Figure 4) Strategic plan for Henty includes: Production run-rate target increased to 35kozpa Au from late FY27 Continued underground development to open additional stopes Second underground diamond drill targeting resource and reserve growth Near-mine exploration commencing H1 FY27 Regional exploration commencing H2 FY27 Processing capacity currently exceeds underground output, with focus on increasing aggregate development. Figure 4: Maldon Gold Project Strategic Plan. (source: KAU) Maldon Gold Project – District-Scale Strategy (Figure 5) Strategic workstreams at Maldon include: Continued low-grade base load processing Ongoing data consolidation Target generation and drilling at Nuggetty, South Nuggetty and Porcupine Flat Re-establishment of Union Hill underground services Drill positions at Union Hill expected Q1 FY27 Targeting ore development at Union Hill commencing H2 FY27 Figure 5: Maldon Gold Project Map. (source: KAU) Balance Sheet Management The 16 February release confirms: Final Auramet gold call option (1,000oz @ A$5,300) to be closed out in February Gold loan and deferred payments being progressively reduced All growth and resilience works to be self-funded from underlying cash flow Management Commentary Managing Director Brad Valiukas stated that: The Union Hill waste dumps have been converted into a defined stockpile resource. Processing at Porcupine Flat can continue while exploration and rehabilitation works progress. Maldon represents a district-scale gold opportunity with multiple historical workings. Henty has near-mine and regional exploration potential along a broader mineralised trend. Balance sheet liabilities continue to be reduced. Near-Term Milestones to Watch Ongoing processing of Union Hill stockpile Permitting for Nuggetty surface reclamation Recruitment of exploration team at Henty Commencement of near-mine exploration (H1 FY27) Union Hill underground drill positions available Q1 FY27 Ore development targeting H2 FY27 Updated production guidance for FY27 Samso Concluding Comments The February announcements outlines the obvious. The Kaiser Reef Limited story is one that I have liked since it morphed itself out of nothing in the beginning of the new company narrative with the acquisition of the Henty Gold Mine. It was like the rise of the Phoenix. The news on the Union Hill stockpile provides an additional quantified low-grade material source that supports continued utilisation of the Porcupine Flat plant. Figure 6: Union Hill Stockpiles – Plan View. (source: KAU) In the current gold price environment, this will be the icing on the cake for Kaiser Reef Limited that was not in existence when the gold price was significantly lower six months ago. Investors should be very keen to see how this develops as if the studies are positive, this will indeed add to the fortunes of Kaiser Reef Limited. Figure 7: Union Hill Stockpiles – Long Section – looking East. (source: KAU) At Henty (Figure 8), the focus is on increasing underground development to match existing processing capacity. The production run-rate target of 35kozpa from late FY27 is supported by development and exploration programs. Without elaborating on the obvious merits of being part of a money printing business to existing shareholders, I have always said that an operator like Brad will make this work and with the rising gold price, his job got significantly easier. Figure 8: Henty Project Map. (source: KAU) The Maldon strategic plan outlines concurrent workstreams including target generation, permitting, rehabilitation and potential ore development. The district-scale approach is supported by multiple historical mines and infrastructure already in place (Figure 9). Figure 9: Central Victorian Goldfields. (source: KAU) The balance sheet update indicates progressive reduction of legacy liabilities while funding exploration and development internally. The announcements collectively provide operational data, resource definition and forward activity timelines without revising existing resource and reserve assumptions. Market Implication - The Investor Lens There is not much to say about the market implication as we all know that any gold producer now is laughing all the way to the bank. All shareholders of a gold producer are doing the same, so Figure 10 is all you need to understand the fortunes of Kaiser Reef Limited. Figure 10: The share price chart for Kaiser Reef as of 24th February 2026. (source: commsec) Cover photo: Gold bullion 1, Szaaman. Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Gold_bullion_1.jpg) The Samso Way – Seek the Research Here at Samso, we pride ourselves on delivering content for investors that is independent and informed by over three decades of experience in the industry. Our content is well-researched and is only created if I see merit in discussing the company's story. Our mission is simple: cut through the noise and spotlight what matters—genuine stories, grounded insights, and real opportunity. Our content is well-researched and is only created if the team sees merit in discussing the company or concept. Investors can explore our three core platforms: Coffee with Samso Samso Insights Samso News There may be numerous paths to success in investing, but the common thread among successful individuals is that they remain committed to making informed decisions. Equip yourself with the right knowledge and tools, and you will be well on your way to achieving your financial goals. Most importantly, investors need to be absolutely diligent in understanding their own risk-reward tolerance and capabilities. Never bite off more than you can chew. As they say, Rome wasn’t built in a day, and the Great Wall stood because it took centuries to complete. The Samso Philosophy: Stay curious. Stay sharp. And remember—digging deeper always uncovers the real value. In Life, there is no such thing as a Free Lunch. Never bite off more than you can chew is my parting comment. Happy Investing, and the only four-letter word you need to know is DYOR. To support our independent nature of our work, please head over to our Support Page and give us a helping hand in any of the ways listed. This is a new initiate for the Samso Platform, and it was always the concept of Samso when we started this journey in 2018. Disclaimer The information or opinions provided herein do not constitute investment advice, an offer, or solicitation to subscribe for, purchase, or sell the investment product(s) mentioned herein. It does not take into consideration, nor have any regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation, risk profile, tax position and particular, or unique needs and constraints. Read full Disclaimer. Share to Grow: Your Bonus Samso has just released an eBook: How to Add Value to your Share Portfolio A lesson on geological models sought by mining companies that gives insight and an understanding of which portfolios are better - and potentially more lucrative – investments. Click here to download this eBook. Download eBook If you find this article informative and useful, please help me share the information. I try to write about topics that are interesting and have the potential to be of investment value. It is not easy to find stories that fit those parameters. If you or your organisation sees the benefit of what Samso is trying to achieve and has a need to share your journey, please contact me at noel.ong@samso.com.au. About Samso Samso is a trusted platform that equips dedicated investors with up-to-date industry knowledge and insights from top CEOs and thought leaders. By staying informed on business advancements and market trends, investors can enhance their financial decisions through a combination of expert guidance and their own research.

This latest ASX release from Miramar Resources Limited (ASX: M2R) at the Gidji JV Gold Project is very interesting. The core of the release is about the latest RC drilling results that management has highlighted as a defined continuous zone of shallow gold mineralisation extending over 600 metres at the Highway Prospect. The programme confirmed multiple mineralised intersections, including higher-grade zones such as 3m @ 9.45 g/t Au (Figure 1). Figure 1: Plan view showing Highway Prospect drill results and 600m strike extent.(Source: Miramar Resources Limited) The results do build on earlier aircore drilling and support the interpretation of a coherent shallow gold system. I have always liked this project from way back in 2021 when Alan Kelly came on our Coffee with Samso " Mineral Exploration - Creating Value Organically ", Episode 68; however, the hidden mention of Claypan has made me take notice. For me, the Gidji project just needs money spent on the ground and the process of exploration will do its job. Personally, the best thing for Miramar is to let management do their job and go find the mystery mineralisation source (I am a shareholder anticipating a discovery). The notes that was in the release about Claypan is very interesting. The concept of something else in the project will always be a place of interest so the more of these "new prospects' the more I will be following the progress. About Miramar Resources Miramar Resources is operating within the Eastern Goldfields of Western Australia, a well-established gold-producing region with existing infrastructure and processing capacity. The Gidji JV Project sits within a structural corridor that hosts multiple known deposits, and recent work is focused on defining shallow mineralisation that may be amenable to near-surface development pathways. Shallow Gold Mineralisation Defined at the Highway Prospect Near Kalgoorlie The Gidji JV Project is located approximately 15 kilometres north of Kalgoorlie and contains around 15 kilometres of strike along the Boorara Shear Zone, a structure associated with multiple gold deposits in the region (Figure 2). Exploration since 2020 has identified several zones of shallow gold beneath transported cover, with recent RC drilling now providing clearer definition of mineralisation at the Highway Prospect. Figure 2: The Gidji JV project. (Source: Miramar Resources Limited) The latest drilling confirms that gold mineralisation occurs at shallow depths between approximately 47m and 56m and extends over a strike length exceeding 600 metres (Figure 3). Figure 3: Long section showing vertical distribution of shallow gold mineralisation. (source: Miramar Resources Limited) RC Drilling Confirms Coherent Shallow Gold System Over 600m Strike RC drilling has outlined shallow gold mineralisation over a strike length exceeding 600 metres at the Highway Prospect (Figure 1). Mineralisation occurs at shallow depths (47m–56m), consistent with earlier aircore results. Higher-grade intersections include: 3m @ 9.45 g/t Au (GJRC043), including 1m @ 23.11 g/t Au Additional intercepts such as 3m @ 1.13 g/t Au and multiple intervals above 0.5 g/t Au. A second parallel trend west of the main zone is indicated by aircore drilling results exceeding 2 g/t Au. Drill spacing remains relatively wide (~50m), indicating further drilling is required to define continuity and grade distribution. Figure 4 below outlines some of the significant intercepts from the drilling. Figure 4: Summary of significant drill intersections (>0.25 g/t Au). (source: Miramar Resources Limited) An Interesting New Prospect ? The management comments regarding the potential of the "Claypan" Prospect, within 200 meters of the Goldfields Highway and along the strike from the Crossroads deposit and the renowned Kanowna Belle gold deposit (Figure 5) is good news. Good news, not in the sense that I feel a discovery is in sight, but good news in that there are learnings coming out from the exploration activities that gives shareholders a better chance for discovery. For those who have been working in the Kalgoorlie region, the Black Flag Beds have been a target or a word association for gold explorers for as long as I can remember as a follower of all things mineral exploration. Although it is by no means a "sure thing" to deliver a discovery, it is nice to know that the geology in the Gidji area is in the right geological associations. Major gold deposits at Kanowna Belle and Binduli is nice to be associated with so this brings an educated hope for my investment :-). Figure 5: Regional location of Claypan relative to Kanowna Belle and Crossroads. (source: Miramar Resources Limited) As mentioned in the ASX release, it is good to see that previous RAB, aircore, and RC drilling have revealed sporadic bedrock gold mineralisation over a strike length of about 1 kilometre, linked to the contact between a mafic intrusive unit and a granite, which is offset by a north-south fault (Figure 6). Current drilling is relatively wide-spaced compared to the nearby Crossroads deposit, which has a total strike length of roughly 300 meters. I will be eager to get more news of any drilling after the completion of the heritage survey. Figure 6: Claypan drilling and geological interpretation. (source: Miramar Resources Limited) Management Commentary The Company has indicated that the current drilling supports the potential for defining shallow gold resources at the Highway Prospect. Work has commenced to review existing data and plan further drilling, including engaging a resource geologist. The proximity of the project to infrastructure, including the Goldfields Highway and nearby processing plants, is noted as providing multiple pathways for potential development scenarios depending on scale. Near-term Milestones to Watch Closer spaced RC drilling at the Highway Prospect to define grade continuity and thickness Evaluation of shallow resource potential with input from resource geologist RC drilling at the Claypan Prospect following heritage clearance Auger drilling programme at the Chain Pool Project targeting SEDEX-style mineralisation Samso Concluding Comments The results presented in this announcement show that the Highway Prospect is moving along and that is pretty much you can ask for from management. It is good to see the recognition of the 600 metres of strike which means there is still some form of evidence to find the elusive Holy Grail. The shallow depth of the mineralisation is a good consistent feature across the drilling programme which, for me, is consistent with the historical drilling interpretation. The engagement of a resource geologist would indicate that Miramar Resource is beginning to organise its data towards potential resource evaluation, which will largely depend on the outcomes of further drilling. I like the mention of the Claypan Prospect as it adds another layer to the project, with geological features such as the unconformity and structural setting providing a basis for additional targets. Historical drilling indicates mineralisation over a longer strike length, but the spacing of data means that further work is required to establish continuity. If the project becomes a supergen play, then so be it. A modest volume in this market is going to be lucrative as the shallow aspect of the potential resource will be economical with not much doubt. Market Implications The market seem to have not done much for Miramar at this stage which may be good to top up for anyone who wants to go for a "punt". With a market capitalisation of just over AUD $5M, a discovery will be impactful for valuations. The great part of the Miramar story is that a modest resource of 100,000 ounces will be sufficient for value creation. Anything in 7 figures will be significant value creation. One can only hope. Cover photo: Cetate open-pit gold mine, István Mihály. CC0, via Wikimedia Commons (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Cetate_open-pit_gold_mine.jpg) The Samso Way – Seek the Research Here at Samso, we pride ourselves on delivering content for investors that is independent and informed by over three decades of experience in the industry. Our content is well-researched and is only created if I see merit in discussing the company's story. Our mission is simple: cut through the noise and spotlight what matters—genuine stories, grounded insights, and real opportunity. Our content is well-researched and is only created if the team sees merit in discussing the company or concept. Investors can explore our three core platforms: Coffee with Samso Samso Insights Samso News There may be numerous paths to success in investing, but the common thread among successful individuals is that they remain committed to making informed decisions. Equip yourself with the right knowledge and tools, and you will be well on your way to achieving your financial goals. Most importantly, investors need to be absolutely diligent in understanding their own risk-reward tolerance and capabilities. Never bite off more than you can chew. As they say, Rome wasn’t built in a day, and the Great Wall stood because it took centuries to complete. The Samso Philosophy: Stay curious. Stay sharp. And remember—digging deeper always uncovers the real value. In Life, there is no such thing as a Free Lunch. Never bite off more than you can chew is my parting comment. Happy Investing, and the only four-letter word you need to know is DYOR. To support our independent nature of our work, please head over to our Support Page and give us a helping hand in any of the ways listed. This is a new initiative for the Samso Platform, and it was always the concept of Samso when we started this journey in 2018. Disclaimer The information or opinions provided herein do not constitute investment advice, an offer, or solicitation to subscribe for, purchase, or sell the investment product(s) mentioned herein. It does not take into consideration, nor have any regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation, risk profile, tax position and particular, or unique needs and constraints. Read full Disclaimer. Share to Grow: Your Bonus Samso has just released an eBook: How to Add Value to your Share Portfolio A lesson on geological models sought by mining companies that gives insight and an understanding of which portfolios are better - and potentially more lucrative – investments. Click here to download this eBook. Download eBook If you find this article informative and useful, please help me share the information. I try to write about topics that are interesting and have the potential to be of investment value. It is not easy to find stories that fit those parameters. If you or your organisation sees the benefit of what Samso is trying to achieve and has a need to share your journey, please contact me at noel.ong@samso.com.au. About Samso Samso is a trusted platform that equips dedicated investors with up-to-date industry knowledge and insights from top CEOs and thought leaders. By staying informed on business advancements and market trends, investors can enhance their financial decisions through a combination of expert guidance and their own research.

There are moments in the ASX mining space where a transaction changes everything for a company. This Coffee with Samso conversation with Brad Valiukas from Kaiser Reef Limited is one of those moments. Filmed back at Samso HQ at the University of Western Australia, this discussion centres on what I described as an “overnight producer” story - driven by the acquisition of the Henty Gold Mine in Western Tasmania. And in many ways, that label fits. Coffee with Samso - Episode 220 | Kaiser Reef Limited (ASX: KAU) | The University Club | Crawley | Western Australia In the words of Samso, get your favourite beverage and sit and listen to another great insight from Coffee with Samso. Samso Concluding Comments This Coffee with Samso reinforces something I’ve seen many times: A company becomes interesting when: It generates cash It controls its own growth It has optionality beyond the current asset Kaiser Reef is now ticking all three boxes. The Henty acquisition has given them: Cash flow Operational control A platform to grow The next phase is execution. And as always, the market will decide how quickly it recognises that value. Chapters 00:00 Start 01:49 Introduction 02:03 The Best Deal of the Century 02:48 Brad Walks Us Through the Henty Deal 05:11 Taking over an Ongoing Business 06:23 The Rise of the Gold Price 07:19 How much of the cost-cutting has been done? 10:10 Is Henty Considered Difficult? 12:07 How much of the resource can be converted into reserves? 15:02 Exploration Upside? 17:48 Any base metal potential? 18:30 What is the Focus of Kaiser Reef? 23:14 Is the operating cost rising? 24:34 Are operating costs stable? 25:30 When does Brad think that Hedging of the Gold Price becomes a Good Idea? 27:55 A Trialling Stop Loss Strategy 28:47 What Could Go Wrong For Kaiser? 30:41 New project adding to the portfolio 32:48 Thoughts on Gold Price 35:04 Discussion on Gold Price Movement 36:49 Inflationary Asset is not an Increase of Value 37:29 Market Capitalisation Valuation 40:18 What Does Brad Want the Market to View Kaiser? 42:12 Conclusion The “Overnight Producer” – What Changed? Kaiser Reef’s acquisition of the Henty Gold Mine has effectively repositioned the company from an explorer-developer into a cash-flowing gold producer. Brad walks through the structure of the deal, and what stands out is its balance: Combination of cash and scrip consideration Deferred gold payments (linked to production) Retention of Catalyst Metals as a ~20% shareholder Strategic optionality via infrastructure (Maldon plant exposure) From a Samso lens, this wasn’t just an acquisition—it was a business transition. Kaiser Reef's Henty Gold Mine One of the key takeaways here is that Kaiser didn’t buy a problem asset—it bought an operating business. Immediate production profile (~2,000+ oz/month) Strong early quarterly output (~8,000 oz) Margins supported by a rising gold price environment AISC sitting in the mid-$3,000/oz range (AUD) This is important. The risk profile is very different when: You are stepping into an existing cash-generating system rather than building one. That’s what gives Henty its role as the backbone asset of Kaiser. The Gold Price Tailwind – Timing Matters Brad is very clear about one thing—timing helped. The deal was struck just as gold began its upward move, and since then: Gold price > A$7,000/oz Costs relatively stable Margins expanding significantly But what I like about this conversation is that there is no assumption that this continues indefinitely. The business decisions are still being made based on current or conservative pricing, not blue-sky scenarios. That’s a grounded approach. The Samso Way – Seek the Research Here at Samso, we pride ourselves on delivering content for investors that is independent and informed by over three decades of experience in the industry. Our content is well-researched and is only created if I see merit in discussing the company's story. Our mission is simple: cut through the noise and spotlight what matters—genuine stories, grounded insights, and real opportunity. Our content is well-researched and is only created if the team sees merit in discussing the company or concept. Investors can explore our three core platforms: Coffee with Samso Samso Insights Samso News There may be numerous paths to success in investing, but the common thread among successful individuals is that they remain committed to making informed decisions. Equip yourself with the right knowledge and tools, and you will be well on your way to achieving your financial goals. Most importantly, investors need to be absolutely diligent in understanding their own risk-reward tolerance and capabilities. Never bite off more than you can chew. As they say, Rome wasn’t built in a day, and the Great Wall stood because it took centuries to complete. Always read the announcement, understand the geology, and follow the development pathway before forming an investment view. The Samso Philosophy: Stay curious. Stay sharp. And remember—digging deeper always uncovers the real value. In Life, there is no such thing as a Free Lunch. Never bite off more than you can chew is my parting comment. Happy Investing, and the only four-letter word you need to know is DYOR. To support our independent nature of our work, please head over to our Support Page and give us a helping hand in any of the ways listed. This is a new initiate for the Samso Platform, and it was always the concept of Samso when we started this journey in 2018. Disclaimer The information or opinions provided herein do not constitute investment advice, an offer or solicitation to subscribe for, purchase or sell the investment product(s) mentioned herein. It does not take into consideration, nor have any regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation, risk profile, tax position and particular, or unique needs and constraints. Read full Disclaimer. Share to Grow: Your Bonus Samso has just released an eBook: How to Add Value to your Share Portfolio A lesson on geological models sought by mining companies that gives insight and an understanding of which portfolios are better - and potentially more lucrative – investments. Click here to download this eBook. If you find this article informative and useful, please help me share the information. I try to write about topics that are interesting and have the potential to be of investment value. It is not easy to find stories that fit those parameters. If you or your organisation sees the benefit of what Samso is trying to achieve and has a need to share your journey, please contact me at noel.ong@samso.com.au. About Samso Samso is a trusted platform that equips dedicated investors with up-to-date industry knowledge and insights from top CEOs and thought leaders. By staying informed on business advancements and market trends, investors can enhance their financial decisions through a combination of expert guidance and their own research.