Is Niobium Still in Flavour?
The niobium price in China, for ferroniobium, is about 7 per cent lower than a year ago. Three of the four ASX niobium names we follow have lost half their value or more, in what we read as a move across most of the sector. The next step is the pre-feasibility study from WA1 Resources, due this quarter.
WA1 Resources (ASX: WA1) reported its Luni niobium discovery in the West Arunta of Western Australia in November 2022 [R8]. The question now is whether niobium's flavour has lasted. We read the niobium price and the share prices with the same technical measures.
All prices in this piece are as at the close of ASX trading on 21 October 2026. The ferroniobium quote from China is the latest available at that time, published on 12 October 2026.
The Niobium Price and Who Sets It
Niobium is used mostly in high-strength, low-alloy steels [R4]. In the US, steelmakers use most of it as ferroniobium, an alloy of niobium and iron [R2]. Brazil produced about 93 per cent of the world's niobium in 2025 [R2]. The largest producer, CBMM, told the Brazilian press it had capacity of 150,000 tonnes a year and expected to produce about 100,000 tonnes in 2025 [R3].
One open price source is Ferroalloynet, which quotes ferroniobium sold in China in the grade 60-A, including tax [R1]. The latest quote, on 12 October 2026, is 320,000 to 330,000 yuan a tonne. It was 340,000 to 360,000 yuan from 19 May 2025 to at least 11 May 2026, then fell in two steps, first seen in June and August 2026 (FIG. 01).
Reading the Ferroniobium Price Chart
The 200-day moving average, the average of the last 200 trading days, is a common line for separating a long uptrend from a long downtrend [R6]. For this quote it is taken over 200 weekdays, with each quote carried forward. The quote is 5 per cent below its 200-day average of 342,000 yuan, and the average has turned down. On the usual reading that is a downtrend.
The quote has changed only five times in two years, and from January to July 2026 it was published eight times. An average built on a price that moves in steps mostly measures how long ago the last step was. With no trading volume, we cannot tell whether a step came from heavy trading or one seller changing its offer. The chart still shows direction and pace. Since mid-2026 the quote has moved down slowly, about 7 per cent after a year with no change.
WA1 Resources and the ASX Niobium Stocks
WA1 Resources is worth about A$620 million on our arithmetic from its 74.3 million shares [R4]. It is still a development company. In our experience its price moves on drilling and study news, so chart signals carry less weight than they do for a producer such as BHP. Median daily turnover of about A$3.1 million over 20 sessions shows the shares trade readily [R5].
The shares closed at A$8.38, 37 per cent below the 200-day average of A$13.40, and that average is still falling. The 50-day average dropped under the 200-day on 12 March 2026, which traders call a death cross (FIG. 02). The shares are 62 per cent below their two-year high of A$21.98 on 9 October 2025, and under the A$17 at which WA1 placed A$100 million of new shares in August 2025 [R4]. The Relative Strength Index, J. Welles Wilder's 1978 measure of recent gains against recent losses [R6], is 36. That is between Wilder's 30 and 70 levels, neither oversold nor overbought on his measure.
Over the year (FIG. 03), WA1 is 60 per cent down, Encounter Resources (ASX: ENR) 56 per cent and St George Mining (ASX: SGQ) 50 per cent. Globe Metals & Mining (ASX: GBE) is back where it started after a spike in early 2026. In our reading, WA1 has fallen with most of the group, which looks more like a move across the sector than news about WA1.
What Comes Next for ASX Niobium
WA1 Resources expects to finish its pre-feasibility study for Luni, which will set out a mine plan and costs, in the December quarter of 2026 [R4]. WA1 drew the open-pit part of its resource using a ferroniobium price of about US$30 a kilogram [R4]. The US Geological Survey's average value of US ferroniobium trade in 2025 was lower, at US$26 [R2]. We will look for the price WA1 uses in its mine plan when the study is out. Encounter Resources set out in June 2026 to drill about 30,000 metres of infill at Green's possible starter pits, aiming to lift that part of its resource from Inferred, the lowest-confidence category, to Indicated [R7].
Samso Concluding Comments
The niobium price stepped up in May 2025 and has been giving some of that back in 2026. Supply comes mostly from Brazil, led by CBMM, which has room to produce more. In our view that makes a sharp rise less likely. The flavour was in the shares, and it has eased.
In our view this is the usual path for a discovery story. Value is built during discovery, and some of it is given back while a project works through studies and approvals. On the WA1 Resources chart both averages are still falling. A study showing Luni works at today's prices would test that reading.
SAMSO TAKE The metal has eased and most of the shares have halved. Is the market marking down niobium, or the time it takes to build a new mine? |
THE OTHER WAY TO READ THIS The fall in the shares may be about the metal after all. The market may expect niobium to stay soft for longer, and the falling quote in 2026 fits that view. |
Previous Samso Coverage of Niobium
Newest first. The gold entry is a Coffee with Samso interview rather than a written piece.
3 JUL 2026
Encounter's discount to WA1 and the infill drilling aimed at an Indicated resource.
9 FEB 2026
Multi-element results from Minas Gerais, Brazil.
8 JAN 2026
Aircore results east of the Green resource.
25 NOV 2025
A new zone at Encounter's Aileron project.
18 NOV 2025
Step-out drilling and the plan for infill at Green East.
30 OCT 2025
The high-grade core at Aileron.
14 OCT 2025
Sampling for gallium, rare earths, niobium and phosphate.
COFFEE WITH SAMSO 14 SEP 2025 Coffee with Samso, carbonatites, niobium and the birth of a new province, with Jon Hronsky How the West Arunta carbonatite province was found. |
10 JUL 2025
A West Arunta float after the Luni discovery.
References and Sources
Each source carries an identifier, [R1] to [R8], which appears in the text where the source is used. Company figures are dated by the document they come from. All three figures are original Samso illustrations of sourced data.
[R1] Ferroalloynet, China ferroniobium market prices, published often in 2024 and early 2025 and less often since, 60-A and 60-B grades, cash with tax, as syndicated on vanadiumprice.com. All 513 posts returned by the site's search for ferroniobium were read, latest 12 October 2026. Link
[R2] US Geological Survey, Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026, Niobium (Columbium), February 2026. Link
[R3] SteelOrbis, "Brazil's CBMM plans increase of niobium production ahead of demand", 31 October 2025, reporting the Brazilian press. CBMM figures as reported. Link
[R4] WA1 Resources Ltd, 2026 Annual Report, ASX release 18 September 2026. Use in high-strength, low-alloy steels, shares on issue at 14 September 2026, placement, pre-feasibility study timing and the ferroniobium price used for the resource. Link
[R5] Yahoo Finance daily prices for WA1.AX, ENR.AX, SGQ.AX and GBE.AX, dated in Sydney time. Link
[R6] Moving averages, Edwards and Magee, Technical Analysis of Stock Trends (1948). Relative Strength Index, J. Welles Wilder Jr, New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems (1978), 14 periods and the 70 and 30 levels.
[R7] Small Caps, "Encounter Resources Ramps Up 70,000m Drill Program at Aileron Project in WA", 16 June 2026, reporting Encounter Resources' ASX release of that day. Link
[R8] WA1 Resources Ltd, "Discovery of a second niobium-REE mineralised carbonatite system at Luni", ASX release 16 November 2022. Link
Cover photo: water sump for long-term pump testing at Luni, WA1 Resources Ltd (ASX: WA1), 2026 Annual Report, 18 September 2026, page 9 (Figure 8).
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