AI Bubble - What is Bubbling?

The phrase "AI bubble" is used for four different things. They are the use of AI, the AI companies, technology shares in general, and the money being spent on data centres and chips. Samso's view is that most of the commentary is about the last one.

Many investors will have read a headline about an AI bubble. The Bank of England has warned about it. So has Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associates. The head of OpenAI has said investors might be overexcited.

The warnings rarely say which part of AI they mean. Articles about the AI bubble are often about different things.

Companies are named below as examples only.

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WHAT THIS PIECE COVERS

1.00 THE FOUR MEANINGS OF AI BUBBLE

The four things the phrase is used for, in a table.

2.00 THE USE OF AI

Use is growing. The bubble question is about price.

3.00 THE AI COMPANIES

OpenAI, Anthropic and xAI, and how close each is to the share market.

4.00 TECHNOLOGY SHARES IN GENERAL

Chips, software and platforms, and their weight in the index.

5.00 THE SPENDING ON DATA CENTRES AND CHIPS

The 2026 building plans of four companies, and three concerns about them.

6.00 THE JULY 2026 FALL AND WHAT THE COMMENTATORS HAVE SAID

The July fall in chip shares, the warnings, and the case on the other side.

7.00 THE ASX

Very few of these companies are listed in Australia. Data centre companies and miners are.

8.00 SAMSO TAKE

Samso's view, and what it means for different kinds of ASX company.

A note on the vocabulary and the sources.

Technical terms are explained where they first appear, and the recurring terms are collected in a vocabulary box at the back, above the references.

Each source carries an identifier, [R1] to [R27]. The same identifier appears in the text where that source is used, so each figure can be traced to the document behind it.

1.00 — THE FOUR MEANINGS OF AI BUBBLE

The phrase is used for four different things

A bubble is a period when the price of an asset rises well above what its earnings can support, and then falls. The word is also used for a building boom, when more is built than customers will pay for. A useful technology can still be overpriced or overbuilt.

When a commentator says "AI bubble", the subject is usually one of four things. Table 01 lists them, with examples and with what is listed on the ASX.

The four are connected, but they do not carry the same risk. A fall in one does not always mean a fall in the others. The spending and the chip companies are the most closely tied.

The first question for any AI bubble headline is which of the four it is about.

2.00 — THE USE OF AI

The technology is growing, and the bubble question is about price

The use of AI is growing quickly. Samso's earlier Insight on AI economics recorded that Google's token volumes rose roughly seven-fold in a year [R1]. A token is the small chunk of text an AI reads and writes, and it is the unit AI is billed by.

Usage and profit are separate questions. A study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 2025, as reported by Fortune, found that 95 per cent of company trials of generative AI had not yet turned a profit [R2]. Generative AI is the kind that produces text, images or computer code on request.

The internet was a real technology in 1999 and it is far larger today. Internet shares still fell heavily between 2000 and 2002.

When a commentator says AI is a bubble, the claim is almost never that people will stop using it. The claim is about the price being paid for the companies and for the equipment.

What that means is that an investor can believe AI will be widely used and still question the price of a share in it.

3.00 — THE AI COMPANIES

OpenAI and Anthropic are still private, and xAI is inside SpaceX

The companies whose main business is building AI models are the ones most people think of first. For most of this cycle an ordinary investor could not buy them directly, because they were privately owned.

Anthropic, the maker of the Claude AI model, raised US$65 billion in late May 2026 at a valuation of US$965 billion. It then lodged confidential paperwork for a United States share market listing [R3].

OpenAI, the maker of ChatGPT, was valued at US$852 billion in a funding round in March 2026 [R4]. A funding round is a sale of new shares to a small group of private investors. OpenAI said on 8 June 2026 that it had also lodged confidential listing paperwork, and that it had not decided when to list [R3].

At 11 October 2026 neither company had listed. Yahoo Finance reported on 4 October 2026 that Anthropic's public prospectus had not yet appeared on the regulator's database, and that reports pointed to a listing in November [R5]. A prospectus is the document a company must publish before it sells shares to the public.

xAI makes the Grok AI model. SpaceX bought xAI in February 2026, which brought Grok and the social network X into SpaceX [R7]. SpaceX then listed on the Nasdaq exchange on 12 June 2026 under the code SPCX. It raised about US$75 billion, the largest share market listing on record [R6]. An investor who wants exposure to X or Grok now buys SpaceX, which is also a rocket and satellite company.

SpaceX was valued at about US$1.77 trillion at the price its shares were first sold at [R7]. FIG. 01 sets the three valuations beside Nvidia, which is shown for scale. Nvidia is the largest listed company in the AI supply chain. It was valued at about US$5.49 trillion at the close on 27 August 2026 [R9].

OpenAI and Anthropic together carry a private valuation of about US$1.8 trillion, by Samso's addition of the two figures above. Their prospectuses will be the first time the public can read their full accounts.

The two largest private AI companies have been valued by private investors so far. They have not yet traded on a share market.

4.00 — TECHNOLOGY SHARES IN GENERAL

Chips, software and platforms are three different businesses

Technology shares fall into three groups, and the commentary often treats them as one.

Semiconductors. These companies design computer chips, make them, or both. A semiconductor is the material a chip is made from, usually silicon. Chips are made on thin discs of silicon called wafers, and PLATE 01 shows one [R25].

Nvidia is the largest chip company by market value. It designs its chips and has them made by other companies. Nvidia reported revenue of US$96.2 billion for the three months to 26 July 2026, up 106 per cent on a year earlier. Its data centre division made up US$89.0 billion of that [R8].

FIG. 02 shows the latest quarter, the quarter before it and the same quarter a year earlier. The last bar is the company's outlook for the next quarter.

Revenue roughly doubled in a year, and almost all of it came from equipment for data centres. Nvidia's sales depend directly on AI spending.

Software. These companies sell programs and services. Some are adding AI to products they already sell. Their sales do not depend on AI in the way Nvidia's do.

Platforms. Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft and Amazon earn most of their revenue from advertising, online shopping, software, and renting out computing power, which is called cloud computing. They were large and profitable before the current AI cycle. They are also the biggest buyers of AI chips, which section 5.00 covers.

All three groups are part of the bubble discussion because of their weight in the share market. At 30 September 2026 the ten largest companies made up 39.1 per cent of the S&P 500 index, the main measure of large United States companies. The single largest company was 8.4 per cent [R10]. In September 2019 the ten largest made up 22.8 per cent [R11]. The two figures come from different sources. FIG. 03 shows the change.

An index fund holds every company in an index in proportion to its size. An investor in an ordinary S&P 500 index fund has close to 40 cents of every dollar in ten companies. A fall in those ten companies moves the whole index.

5.00 — THE SPENDING ON DATA CENTRES AND CHIPS

Four companies plan to spend more than US$700 billion in 2026

A data centre is a large, heavily powered building full of computers. AI models are trained and run inside them. PLATE 02 shows rows of computer cabinets of the kind a data centre holds [R26].

Four companies are the largest spenders. They are Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta, and the industry calls them hyperscalers because of the size of the data centre networks they run.

Their spending is reported as capital expenditure, which is money spent on long-lived assets such as buildings and equipment. Each company updated its 2026 plan with its results in late July 2026.

Amazon expects about US$220 billion, up from about US$200 billion [R13]. Alphabet expects US$195 billion to US$205 billion, up from US$180 billion to US$190 billion [R14]. Meta expects US$130 billion to US$145 billion, narrowed from US$125 billion to US$145 billion [R12].

Microsoft's figure was reported as about US$175 billion, down from about US$190 billion. The fall comes from an accounting change. More of Microsoft's future data centre leases will be counted as rent and not as capital expenditure. Microsoft said its investment plans were otherwise unchanged [R15].

Added together, the four plans come to between US$720 billion and US$745 billion for 2026. That addition is Samso's. The four companies spent about US$410 billion in 2025, on a published estimate [R16]. FIG. 04 shows the two years.

The 2026 plans are about 76 to 82 per cent larger than the 2025 spend, on Samso's arithmetic. The totals are all capital expenditure, so they include some spending that is not for AI. Much of the money buys chips, which Samso reads as a main reason Nvidia's revenue in FIG. 02 has doubled.

The buildings need land, power and network cables. FIG. 05 is a map published by a United States Department of Energy laboratory. It shows where the data centres are, and the power lines and fibre routes they depend on [R27].

Data centres are built in clusters near large power lines and fibre routes. The building plans depend on electricity supply as well as money.

The warnings point to three features of the spending.

The spending is ahead of the revenue. The companies are building capacity now for demand they expect later. If the demand arrives late, the buildings and chips are already paid for.

Chips lose value quickly. Microsoft now counts the life of a data centre building as 25 years [R15]. Faster chips are released far more often than that, and an older chip earns less once they arrive. If a company builds more than it needs, the chips lose value while they wait.

More of it is being funded with debt, and the largest supplier has backed a customer. The Bank of England said in September 2026 that a growing amount of AI investment is being financed by borrowing [R17]. In July 2026, Axios reported that Nvidia was weighing a guarantee of US$250 billion to back the financing of an OpenAI data centre project. Nvidia's shares fell about 4.5 per cent during that day's trading [R18]. Fortune later reported the final guarantee was up to US$105 billion [R19].

The concern is known as circular financing. It means a supplier provides money or guarantees to a customer, and that helps the customer buy the supplier's product. It can make demand look stronger than it is, and it ties the supplier's results to the customer's.

Samso's view is that this fourth meaning is the one most of the bubble commentary is describing. The questions being asked are whether more than US$700 billion of building planned for 2026 can earn a return, and who is exposed if it cannot.

Samso's Insight on ASX data centre stocks found the same issue at a smaller scale in Australia. Research commissioned by the Australian Energy Market Operator estimated that six in every seven megawatts of data centre grid connection requests would never be built [R21]. A megawatt is a unit of electrical power, and a data centre's size is measured by the power it draws.

In plain terms, a request to connect a data centre to the grid is a long way from a data centre being built.

6.00 — THE JULY 2026 FALL AND WHAT THE COMMENTATORS HAVE SAID

Chip shares fell in July 2026, and what each side says

Shares in chip companies fell sharply in July 2026. On 28 July the main United States index of chip companies fell as much as 6 per cent in a day. The Nasdaq-100 index, which holds 100 large companies and is weighted towards technology, was 9.7 per cent below its record high. Fortune reported that fears about hyperscalers overspending were among the causes [R20].

The Bank of England's Financial Policy Committee reviewed the episode at its meeting on 25 September 2026. Its record says equity valuations for AI companies "fell sharply in July". It says some leveraged investors took significant losses, and that there was "no spillover to core markets". A leveraged investor is one who invests with borrowed money. The record also says "the risk of a sharper correction persists" [R17].

In plain terms, AI share prices fell and the fall did not spread to the main financial markets. The Bank of England still sees a risk of a larger fall.

Ray Dalio, the founder of the investment firm Bridgewater Associates, wrote on X in January 2026 that the AI boom was in the early stages of a bubble. Sam Altman, the chief executive of OpenAI, said in August 2025 that investors as a whole might be overexcited about AI [R2].

THE CASE ON THE OTHER SIDE

The companies in this discussion earn large profits today. Nvidia, which receives much of the spending, reported a net profit of US$59.7 billion for the three months to 26 July 2026 [R8]. The four largest spenders were large and profitable before the current AI cycle. This is the main difference from 2000, when many internet companies had little revenue.

The buyers say they cannot get enough capacity. Amazon's chief executive, Andy Jassy, said in July 2026 that Amazon would not have enough capacity to meet all the demand it has in 2026 [R13]. Microsoft said its investment plans were unchanged apart from an accounting change [R15].

Nvidia's chief executive, Jensen Huang, said with the August 2026 results that "the AI infrastructure buildout is at full steam" [R8].

The July fall did not spread. The Bank of England's record says there was "no spillover to core markets" [R17].

The executives' comments are company statements. The revenue and profit figures are reported results.

Nobody quoted here is saying that AI does not work. Both sides are arguing about the share prices and the spending. The share prices in meaning three depend on the spending in meaning four, which is why Samso puts the spending first.

The July fall showed that AI share prices can drop quickly when investors doubt the spending. Whether the spending will earn a return is still open.

7.00 — THE ASX

The ASX has little to offer in AI

Very few of the companies in the AI bubble discussion are listed in Australia.

No ASX company builds a leading AI model, or designs or makes AI chips in large volumes. The large platform companies are not listed here either.

Samso covered this in How to Buy the AI Build-Out on the ASX. That Insight found the ASX semiconductor names are mostly early-stage companies that license a technology [R22].

An investor who wants the AI companies, the chip companies or the platforms can buy them on an overseas exchange or through a fund. Some of those funds are exchange traded funds quoted on the ASX.

What the ASX does have belongs to the fourth meaning, the spending. Table 02 sets it out.

Data centres. A small number of ASX companies own or operate data centres. Samso's Insight ASX Data Centre Stocks, What the Market Is Actually Paying covered eleven companies with some exposure. Four of them own or operate the buildings directly [R21].

That Insight found that binding contracts moved share prices and the gains held, while non-binding agreements produced short moves that faded. A binding contract commits both sides. A non-binding agreement lets either side walk away.

The materials. Data centres need copper for wiring and power, and they need electricity. BHP's chief financial officer, Vandita Pant, told the Financial Times in September 2024 that data centres were then less than 1 per cent of copper demand and were expected to be 6 to 7 per cent by 2050 [R23].

The International Energy Agency projects that electricity use by data centres worldwide will more than double by 2030, to about 945 terawatt hours. That is slightly more than Japan uses in a year today [R24].

This is the link between the AI bubble discussion and the resources companies that make up much of the ASX. Part of the long-term demand case for copper now rests on the data centre build continuing.

On BHP's 2024 figure, data centres are a small part of copper demand. Samso's reading is that a slowdown in AI spending would affect the copper forecasts more than it would affect current copper sales.

8.00 — SAMSO TAKE

Samso view

SAMSO TAKE

Samso's view is that the AI bubble discussion is mostly a discussion about data centres and chips.

The use of AI is growing, and that part is not in question. The debate is about more than US$700 billion of spending planned for 2026 to supply it. It is also about the share prices of the companies receiving that money, and of the companies spending it. Those companies are profitable today.

For an ASX investor the direct exposure is small. The ASX does not have the AI companies, the chip companies or the platforms.

The indirect exposure is larger. An investor with an S&P 500 index fund already has close to 40 cents of every dollar in ten companies.

On the ASX it differs by the kind of company. The large miners carry it through copper, because the long-term copper forecasts now include data centres. The ASX data centre companies carry it most directly.

The small caps are affected through announcements. A small company that signs a data centre agreement can move a long way on it, and the earlier Samso work found that only binding contracts held their gains. The micro explorers are affected by market mood. In Samso's experience, money for early-stage exploration is usually harder to raise when large overseas markets fall.

So the next time a headline says "AI bubble", which of the four is it talking about?

THE VOCABULARY, IN PLAIN ENGLISH

Bubble

A period when an asset's price rises well above what its earnings can support, and then falls. The word is also used for a building boom, when more is built than customers will pay for.

Capital expenditure

Money spent on long-lived assets such as buildings and equipment. Often shortened to capex.

Circular financing

A supplier gives money or guarantees to a customer, and that helps the customer buy the supplier's product.

Data centre

A large, heavily powered building full of computers that store data and run software.

Generative AI

Software that produces text, images or computer code on request.

Hyperscaler

One of the very large companies that run global computing networks. Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta are the four usually meant.

Index fund

A fund that holds every company in a share market index, in proportion to each company's size.

Leveraged investor

An investor who invests with borrowed money.

Platform company

A very large company whose online services are used by very large numbers of people or businesses, such as search, social networks, online shopping and cloud computing.

Cloud computing

Renting out computing power and storage from data centres over the internet.

Funding round and prospectus

A funding round is a sale of new shares to a small group of private investors. A prospectus is the document a company must publish before it sells shares to the public.

Megawatt

A unit of electrical power. A data centre's size is measured by the power it draws.

Semiconductor and wafer

A semiconductor is the material computer chips are made from, usually silicon. A wafer is the thin disc of silicon that chips are made on.

Token

The small chunk of text an AI reads and writes, and the unit it is billed by.

Valuation

The total value placed on a company, by the share market or by private investors.

9.00 — REFERENCES AND SOURCES

Where every figure comes from

FIG. 01 to FIG. 04 were drawn by Samso from the published figures named under each one. FIG. 05 is a map reproduced from the US National Renewable Energy Laboratory. PLATE 01 and PLATE 02 are United States government photographs in the public domain. Each identifier below, [R1] to [R27], appears in the text at the point the source is used. Figures described as reported by a named outlet were not checked against the originating document, and the reference says so.

1. [R1] Samso Insights, "The Paradox: The Price Fell, The Bill Rose - AI Agent Economics". The Google token volume figure is carried from Samso's earlier work. www.samso.com.au/post/ai-agent-economics-tokens-are-the-bill

2. [R2] Fortune, "Ray Dalio says AI is in 'the early stages of a bubble,' so watch out for 2026", 6 January 2026. Source for the Dalio statement, the Altman statement of August 2025 and the MIT study figure, each as reported by Fortune. The MIT study itself was not read. fortune.com/2026/01/06/ray-dalio-says-ai-is-in-the-early-stages-of-a-bubble-so-watch-out-for-2026

3. [R3] Reuters, "Factbox: OpenAI joins AI listing queue with Anthropic", 8 June 2026, via Yahoo Finance. finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/factbox-mega-ipos-loom-wall-153111631.html

4. [R4] Bloomberg, "OpenAI Joins a Massive AI IPO Pipeline Now Worth $3.6 Trillion", 9 June 2026. news.bgov.com/financial-accounting/openai-filed-confidentially-for-ipo-as-rivals-race-to-market

5. [R5] Yahoo Finance, "Anthropic's Public S-1 Still Missing From EDGAR as October IPO Window Opens", 4 October 2026. finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/anthropic-public-1-still-missing-210349323.html

6. [R6] NPR, "SpaceX IPO makes history as largest ever. Stock gains 19% on first day", 12 June 2026. www.michiganpublic.org/2026-06-12/spacex-stock-skyrockets-on-high-demand-on-first-day-of-trading

7. [R7] Kotak Neo, "SpaceX Debuts on Nasdaq, Opens 11% Above IPO Price", 12 June 2026. Source for the February 2026 purchase of xAI and the valuation at the offer price. www.kotakneo.com/news/ipos/spacex-shares-debut-on-nasdaq-opens-11-percent-above-ipo-price/

8. [R8] NVIDIA Corporation, "NVIDIA Announces Financial Results for Second Quarter Fiscal 2027", 26 August 2026, as lodged with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001045810/000104581026000073/q2fy27pr.htm

9. [R9] Rivkin, NVIDIA Corporation share research note, 31 August 2026. Source for the market value at the close on 27 August 2026. rivkin.com.au/?p=37534

10. [R10] S&P Dow Jones Indices data at 30 September 2026, as reported by KuCoin, "Nvidia, Apple, and Microsoft S&P 500 Concentration". The S&P factsheet itself was not read. www.kucoin.com/blog/bd-nvidia-apple-and-microsoft-sp500-concentration

11. [R11] ChartRow, "S&P 500 concentration (2026)", weights taken from index fund filings. chartrow.com/sp500/concentration

12. [R12] Meta Platforms, "Meta Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results", 29 July 2026. investor.atmeta.com/investor-news/press-release-details/2026/Meta-Reports-Second-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx

13. [R13] Fortune, report on Amazon's second quarter 2026 results and earnings call, 30 July 2026. Amazon's release was not read. fortune.com/2026/07/30/andy-jassy-amazon-capex-demand-aws-pga-tour/

14. [R14] The Motley Fool, "Alphabet will spend as much as $205 billion this year", 30 July 2026. Alphabet's release was not read. www.fool.com/investing/2026/07/30/alphabet-will-spend-as-much-as-205-billion-this-ye

15. [R15] CFO Dive, "Microsoft holds line on AI spending plans", 30 July 2026. Microsoft's transcript was not read. www.cfodive.com/news/microsoft-holds-line-ai-spending-plans/826648/

16. [R16] ValueAdd VC, "Meta AI Capex 2026: The $145 Billion Guidance Raise and What It Buys", 24 July 2026, updated 5 October 2026. Source for the 2025 combined total. The four companies' annual reports were not read. valueaddvc.com/blog/meta-145b-ai-capex-2026-why-zuckerberg-raised-guidance-twice

17. [R17] Bank of England, "Record of the Financial Policy Committee meeting on 25 September 2026", published 30 September 2026. www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/financial-policy-committee-record/2026/fpc-summary-and-record-september-2026

18. [R18] Axios, "Nvidia reignites 'circular' financing concerns as it weighs OpenAI deal", 27 July 2026. axios.com/2026/07/27/nvidia-openai-financing-ai-jensen-huang-ssi

19. [R19] Fortune, report of 18 August 2026 that the Nvidia guarantee for OpenAI came in US$145 billion lower than first reported, at up to US$105 billion. fortune.com

20. [R20] Fortune, "'A lot of panic around the AI investment': How a chip slump is driving the Nasdaq toward correction", 28 July 2026. fortune.com/2026/07/28/why-are-stocks-down-chips-panic-semiconductors/

21. [R21] Samso Insights, "ASX Data Centre Stocks: What the Market Is Actually Paying", 6 September 2026. www.samso.com.au/post/asx-data-centre-stocks-what-the-market-is-paying

22. [R22] Samso Insights, "How to Buy the AI Build-Out on the ASX", 30 July 2026. www.samso.com.au/post/asx-ai-stocks-semiconductors-data-centres

23. [R23] Mining Digital, "BHP Warns AI Boom Could Worsen Copper Shortage", published 16 September 2024, reporting BHP's chief financial officer speaking to the Financial Times. The Financial Times article was not read. miningdigital.com/supply-chain-management/bhp-warns-ai-boom-could-worsen-copper-shortage

24. [R24] International Energy Agency projection, as reported by the International Copper Association Australia, "Copper's Race To The Future", 18 July 2025. The IEA report was not read. copper.com.au/news/general/coppers-race-to-the-future-well-2030/

25. [R25] US Department of Energy, "Silicon wafer researcher", photograph taken at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, 5 August 2013. Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons. commons.wikimedia.org

26. [R26] NASA, "Columbia Supercomputer, NASA Advanced Supercomputing Facility", photograph by Trower, 2006. Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons. commons.wikimedia.org

27. [R27] National Renewable Energy Laboratory, US Department of Energy, map of data centre infrastructure in the United States in 2025, published May 2025. The map states that its data comes from Hitachi Energy. Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons. commons.wikimedia.org

28. Cover photo: Silicon wafer researcher, US Department of Energy. Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons (commons.wikimedia.org)

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