The published price of scandium oxide has fallen by about a third since 2021. For a producer, a lower price cuts revenue per kilogram. For an aluminium industry that has never used scandium at scale because of its cost, a lower price brings it closer to being usable. This work separates what is observed from what is proposed, and asks which of the two prices for scandium an investor should be watching. 26 August 2026 Commodity Series Scandium Understanding the Scandium Market Samso Market Strategy CONTENTS 1.00 What the price chart actually shows The three published scandium price series, and why they cannot be joined together. 2.00 The economics under the question A lower price and a bigger market are two different events in ordinary economics. 3.00 How a new material gets taken up Adoption models and learning curves, and what they will and will not tell you. 4.00 What the scandium research says Two peer-reviewed studies, their actual numbers, and the assumptions behind them. 5.00 The cost bridge into aluminium What the oxide alone adds to a tonne of aluminium-scandium alloy. 6.00 Two prices for the same element Chinese export licensing, a United States stockpile solicitation, and a gap of about ten times. 7.00 What is produced and what is announced About 80 tonnes made last year against 289 tonnes of announced capacity. 8.00 Three scenarios, tested against the evidence Niche, controlled Western expansion, and broad aluminium adoption. 9.00 Rimfire Pacific Mining as a case study One resource, one metallurgical test, and an ASX request for clarification. 10.00 Who owns Murga, who is next door, and who is paying An earn-in that can take 50.1 per cent, the neighbour, the new chair and the adviser. 11.00 The case against everything above The standing counterargument, and what would prove this piece wrong. 12.00 The Samso Way, seek the research Label every number before you use it. 13.00 Samso concluding comments A bigger market and a higher price are not the same trade. A NOTE ON THE VOCABULARY AND THE REFERENCES Every technical term is explained in plain English where it first appears. All of them are also collected in one box at the back, immediately above the references, so a term can be looked up again without hunting for it. Every source carries an identifier from [R1] to [R35]. The same identifier appears in the text at the point that source is used, so any number here can be traced to the document behind it. Clicking a marker jumps to the entry. 1.00 — WHAT THE PRICE CHART ACTUALLY SHOWS US$890 a kilogram in 2021, US$640 in 2025, and a third price that barely moved Normally, when a commodity price falls from around a thousand dollars a kilogram towards six hundred, it reads as a warning. Scandium is a case where the number needs unpacking before it means anything. It is not traded on an exchange, public volumes are small, purity specifications vary, and quoted prices often describe different lot sizes and different commercial terms. A single ten-year line through all of that would suggest a continuity the evidence does not support. [R1] The United States Geological Survey publishes three separate scandium price series in its annual Mineral Commodity Summaries, and it is careful to keep them apart. The first is scandium oxide at 99.99 per cent purity, sold in 5 to 100 kilogram lots. The second is scandium metal ingot at 99.999 per cent purity, sold in 1 to 10 kilogram lots. The third is aluminium-scandium master alloy containing 2 per cent scandium, sold in 1 to 30 kilogram lots. All three are quoted ex-works China, which means the price is at the seller's gate in China before freight, insurance or duty. USGS sources them from Asian Metal Ltd. [R1] The three prices describe three steps in a chain, and each step is made from the one before it. Scandium oxide is a white powder, and it is what comes out of processing and what a producer actually sells. Scandium metal is what the oxide becomes after it is converted, which takes energy and a specialist plant. Aluminium-scandium master alloy is aluminium with about 2 per cent scandium already mixed through it, and it is the form a manufacturer buys so it can stir a small measured amount of scandium into a much larger batch of ordinary aluminium. [R1] FIG. 01 plots the three series on a logarithmic scale, which is a scale where each step up is a multiple rather than a fixed addition. It is used here because the highest of the three prices is about a hundred times the lowest, and an ordinary scale would flatten the two lower series onto the baseline. The oxide fell from a range of US$890 to US$1,000 a kilogram in 2021 to an estimated US$640 in 2025. The master alloy fell from US$42 a kilogram to US$30. The metal ingot went from US$5,300 to US$5,200, which is close to no change at all. [R1] The three lines do not move together. If the market were simply short of scandium, all three would rise and fall as one, because each is made from the one before it. They did not move that way between 2021 and 2025. Between 2021 and 2025 the oxide and the master alloy each fell by roughly a third, while the metal barely moved at all. [R1] That gap has to come from somewhere between the steps. Turning oxide into metal, and turning metal into a master alloy a factory can use, both cost money, and those costs do not fall just because the oxide gets cheaper. So a cheaper oxide does not automatically mean cheaper scandium inside a finished product, One chart is drawn often and is misleading. Scandium oxide from the middle of the last decade is frequently quoted at several thousand dollars a kilogram, and those older numbers get joined onto the front of the USGS series to show a long collapse in the price. [R1][R2] The two sets of numbers are not measuring the same sale. The older ones were usually small quantities, sold through a middleman, at a purity nobody states. The USGS series measures 99.99 per cent oxide in 5 to 100 kilogram lots. Joining them together produces a fall that is partly real and partly just a change in what is being priced, and there is no way to tell from the line which part is which. SAMSO TAKE For scandium, a lower price can be bad for a producer and good for adoption at the same time. Both of those can be true in the same year, because they describe different parts of the same market. The question I keep coming back to is which effect wins, over what period, and for whose cost curve. That is a different question from asking whether the price goes up. 2.00 — THE ECONOMICS UNDER THE QUESTION Two different things happen when a price falls, and only one of them builds a market - why the scandium price needs understanding In the world of commodities, our first instinct is that a falling price means a shrinking business. Some people will read a lower price as a smaller opportunity. In ordinary economics, though, a lower price does two quite separate things, and only one of them is what a scandium investor is actually hoping for. The first is movement along a demand curve. A demand curve is the relationship between the price of something and the quantity buyers will take at that price. Holding everything else steady, a lower price normally increases the quantity people buy. Existing users buy a bit more of the same thing. [R4] The second is a shift in the demand curve itself, which means new buyers arrive who were not in the market at any price before. For scandium that requires a manufacturer to qualify an alloy, redesign a component, write a specification and commit a procurement budget. Qualification is the formal testing and approval process that lets a manufacturer use a material in a product it sells, and in aerospace it can run for years. [R4] THE DISTINCTION IN ONE LINE A lower price sells more scandium to existing buyers. A shift in the demand curve brings in buyers who were not in the market at all. Only the second one takes scandium from a market of tens of tonnes to one of hundreds of tonnes a year. Price elasticity is the measure of how strongly the quantity bought responds to a change in price. An elastic market buys a lot more when the price falls. An inelastic one barely changes. No robust public elasticity estimate for scandium was found in the sources reviewed for this work, so any chart that converts an oxide price directly into a tonnage forecast is running on an assumption rather than on measured behaviour. [R5] Equilibrium, the point where the quantity supplied equals the quantity demanded, is also harder to observe here than in most commodities. Scandium is sold in direct one-to-one deals between a small number of producers and a small number of buyers, often on terms nobody publishes. The price series in FIG. 01 is the best public proxy available, and it is a Chinese ex-works quotation, not a global clearing price. [R1][R4] 3.00 — HOW A NEW MATERIAL GETS TAKEN UP Frank Bass in 1969, Theodore Wright in 1936, and why neither gives scandium a date Two pieces of older research are useful here, and both need to be used carefully, because neither was written about scandium. Frank Bass published a model in 1969 that linked first-time purchases of a new product to two groups of people. The two groups are innovators, who buy because the product exists, and imitators, who buy because other people already have one. The model was built for consumer durables such as televisions and dishwashers, not for aerospace alloys. What carries across is the shape rather than the numbers. Adoption is rarely a straight line. Early technical users prove the material works, others follow, and the rate of growth can rise sharply before the market saturates. [R6] Theodore Wright measured aircraft manufacturing costs in 1936 and found that unit cost fell in a predictable way as cumulative production rose. This became the learning curve, the idea that making more of something teaches an industry how to make it cheaper. No validated learning rate has been published for scandium production, so there is no percentage to apply. [R7] The feedback loop the two of them describe is still economically credible for scandium, even without calibration. If supply becomes more dependable, manufacturers can run more trials. Higher production volumes tend to improve yields and lower the cost of converting oxide into usable alloy. A lower delivered alloy cost would widen the range of components in which scandium is affordable. Every step in that chain has to actually happen, and none of them has a published timetable. WHAT THESE TWO MODELS ARE BEING USED FOR Bass and Wright appear in this work as analogies with named limits, not as forecasting tools. Samso has not fitted either model to scandium data, and no adoption curve or learning rate in this piece should be read as a projection. 4.00 — WHAT THE SCANDIUM RESEARCH SAYS Thirty-eight tonnes or 5,500 tonnes, and the single assumption between them Sinoun Phoung, Eric Williams, Gabrielle Gaustad and Ajay Gupta published a study in the Journal of Cleaner Production in 2023 that took the problem on directly. They gathered public data across solid oxide fuel cells, sporting goods, commercial aviation, conventional vehicles, electric vehicles and beverage cans, then built two scenarios for 2030. [R2] A solid oxide fuel cell is a device that converts fuel into electricity through a ceramic membrane rather than by burning it. Scandium is used to stabilise zirconia, the zirconium oxide ceramic the membrane is made from, so it holds its structure at the temperatures the cell runs at, which is why fuel cells dominate the smaller of the two scenarios. [R2] The business-as-usual scenario produced 38 tonnes a year of scandium oxide demand in 2030, of which 36 tonnes came from fuel cells. The second scenario assumed an additional 10 per cent product share in every sector, and produced about 5,500 tonnes, of which roughly 4,600 tonnes came from light-weighting of internal combustion vehicles, which means substituting lighter metals to cut a vehicle's mass and fuel use, and 620 tonnes was electric vehicles. [R2] WHAT THE AUTHORS SAID ABOUT THEIR OWN 5,500 TONNES The paper states that the assumption of an additional 10 per cent share of scandium-containing products in each sector is “not an assertion that this is a likely value”, and that “there is insufficient information to assert a trend for scandium share in a sector with any certainty”. The same paper calculates that if every proposed scandium project were built by 2030, maximum total supply would be about 1,800 tonnes a year. The 5,500 tonne scenario is therefore not supportable by the known project pipeline, on the authors' own numbers. Harald Ulrik Sverdrup and Antoniy Elias Sverdrup came at the same problem in 2024 through a system-dynamics model called WORLD7, which simulates resources, extraction and markets over long periods. They estimated that about 45 tonnes was produced in 2022, that potential extraction was around 1,500 tonnes a year under the conditions of the day, and that production could increase to about 450 tonnes a year with better recovery in processing and better access to the deposits that contain it. Those are model outputs that depend on resource, yield and system assumptions, not measurements of installed capacity. [R3] Their conclusion about why the market has stayed small is the part that connects to section 2.00. They found that future demand for scandium metal is limited by the high price, by the lack of a properly functioning market and by a lack of production infrastructure, and described the scandium market as showing signs of being disorganised and unstructured. [R3] SAMSO TAKE Put the two studies side by side and the useful finding is not a number. It is that both teams arrived at the same causal picture from opposite methods. Price and availability decide whether a technically useful material gets designed into products. That is a statement about market formation, and in my opinion it is more investable than any of the tonnage figures either paper produced. 5.00 — THE COST BRIDGE INTO ALUMINIUM 1.534 kilograms of oxide for every kilogram of scandium, and what that costs a tonne of alloy Scandium is used in aluminium because it forms a compound called Al₃Sc, which forms very small particles as the alloy cools. Those particles keep the metal's internal crystals small and stop them growing, which raises strength and improves welding behaviour. Frank Czerwinski's 2020 assessment in Materials Science and Technology sets out the metallurgy and compares scandium with cerium as an alloying element. These are general materials findings, and they do not establish that any particular commercial component will pass qualification. [R8] Published scandium additions to aluminium are commonly reported in the range of about 0.2 to 0.6 per cent by weight, with master alloy suppliers describing practice across a wider band. Reported ranges vary between sources, so the figures used in this work are shown as a band rather than a single number. [R9] Scandium is bought as an oxide and used as a metal, so the conversion is where the arithmetic starts. Scandium oxide, written Sc₂O₃, is approximately 65.2 per cent scandium by mass. One kilogram of scandium therefore requires 1.534 kilograms of oxide before any conversion loss. This ratio comes from the fixed proportions of the two elements in the compound and does not vary and Rimfire uses the same 1.5338 conversion in its own resource reporting. [R22][R15] THE SAMSO CALCULATION BEHIND FIG. 04 oxide input cost per tonne of alloy = oxide price × 1.534 × (scandium weight per cent divided by 100) × 1,000 At 0.2 per cent scandium and an oxide price of US$640 a kilogram, that is US$1,964 per tonne of alloy. At the same loading and US$6,270 a kilogram, it is US$19,236. This is the theoretical cost of the oxide and nothing else. It excludes conversion losses, master alloy manufacture, reagent and energy costs, quality assurance, finance, freight, margin and any recycling credit. Real delivered cost will be higher, and how much higher is not something Samso can calculate from public information. FIG. 04 shows that the level of the price, not whether it is rising or falling, determines which products scandium can be used in. At US$640 a kilogram and 0.2 per cent loading, the oxide adds under US$2,000 to a tonne of alloy. At US$6,270 a kilogram and 0.6 per cent loading, it adds more than US$57,000. Those two numbers describe two completely different addressable markets, and the difference between them is arithmetic on two prices that both exist today. Samso Access Some of the work does not appear here Samso holds back a set of Insights for members. Same method as this piece, the same sourcing and the same counterweights, on companies and sectors that do not make the public feed. Every member-only Samso Insight unlocked Full access to the gated Insights archive New member-only pieces included as they publish Samso News and Research Workups will join the gated set, with Research Workups also available on their own tier. A$20 a month · cancel any time See what is inside → 6.00 — TWO PRICES FOR THE SAME ELEMENT US$640 a kilogram from China, and a stockpile solicitation with a US$40 million ceiling China placed scandium under export control in April 2025. The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs issued Announcement No. 18 of 2025, effective 4 April 2025, which lists scandium metal and scandium-containing alloys, scandium oxide and its mixtures, and scandium-containing compounds, each with customs codes. Exporters need a licence, granted case by case. Those controls were still in force as at the USGS assessment in December 2025. [R19][R1] A further package in October 2025 extended the framework to rare-earth items made outside China using Chinese-origin controlled material or technology, and named scandium metal and scandium targets. That October layer was suspended from 7 November 2025 until 10 November 2026. The suspension pauses the measure rather than repealing it. [R20] On 16 September 2025 the United States Defense Logistics Agency posted a sole-source solicitation to buy scandium oxide for the National Defense Stockpile, naming Rio Tinto Services Inc. as the only vendor identified as capable of supplying at the required capacity. The stated reason is the Chinese export controls. The structure is a standing arrangement over five years rather than a single purchase, so the government can order in batches as it wants them, with a guaranteed minimum of US$2 million and a maximum of US$40 million. [R18] The quantity in the solicitation attachment is 6,384 kilograms over the five years. Dividing the US$40 million ceiling by that quantity gives about US$6,270 a kilogram. That figure is Samso arithmetic, not a published price, and it is an upper bound rather than a rate, because a contract ceiling is not the same as the amount that will be spent. FIG. 03 sets it beside the Chinese commercial quotation so the size of the gap can be seen. [R18][R1] READ THIS BEFORE USING THE NUMBER The right-hand bar in FIG. 03 is the weakest number in this work . It is a ceiling divided by a quantity that appears in a solicitation attachment rather than in the notice body. Samso has not located a primary award record, so this is a procurement intention and not a signed contract. What survives that caution is the direction and the order of magnitude. A Western government moved to buy scandium oxide from a single named supplier, the stated reason in the solicitation is the Chinese export controls, and the money it set aside per kilogram is far above the commercial quotation. The exact multiple should not be quoted as a fact. There is not one scandium price. There is a commercial price that has been falling and a strategic price that has been set by a buyer who cannot use the commercial one. A producer serving the second buyer and a producer serving the first are in different businesses, with different volumes and different economics. SAMSO TAKE My reading is that the two-price picture is the most useful thing to come out of the last twelve months, and it barely appears in the commentary I see on scandium. If an investor is holding a scandium project, the question I would want answered first is which of those two markets the project is built for. A 60 tonne a year operation aimed at defence stockpiles and a 60 tonne a year operation aimed at commercial aluminium are not the same investment, even with the same orebody underneath them. 7.00 — WHAT IS PRODUCED AND WHAT IS ANNOUNCED About 80 tons made last year against 289 tonnes of announced capacity The USGS puts global scandium oxide capacity at over 90 tons a year in 2025 and global production at about 80 tons, with China the leading producer. USGS reports in tons and that wording is kept here rather than silently converted. Material also comes from the Philippines, with processing in Japan. [R1] Nobody mines scandium on its own. There is no scandium mine anywhere in the world in the way there is an iron ore mine. Every tonne of it is recovered as a by-product, pulled out of the liquids and residues left over from processing something else, mostly nickel and titanium. The amount of scandium available therefore depends on how much nickel and titanium the world is producing, not on how much scandium anyone wants. [R1] Earlier estimates were smaller. Phoung and colleagues put 2020 global production at 14 to 23 tonnes a year. Sverdrup and Sverdrup estimated about 45 tonnes in 2022. Whether the market really tripled in five years or the estimates simply got better is not something the public data settles, so all three figures are shown in FIG. 02 rather than being blended into one series. [R1][R2][R3] Rio Tinto is the only one already producing Rio Tinto opened a scandium oxide plant at its Sorel-Tracy metallurgical complex in Quebec in June 2021, ramping to a capacity of three tonnes a year, extracted from waste streams of its titanium dioxide operation. [R11] On 1 November 2025 Rio Tinto and the Canada Growth Fund announced a transaction to expand that facility's nameplate capacity to nine tonnes a year. Nameplate capacity is the output a plant is designed to produce, which is not the same as what it actually makes or sells. The fund is investing approximately C$25 million through a royalty structure, meaning it is paid a share of future revenue rather than taking shares in the company. [R10] The step from three tonnes to nine is a tripling of the only operating scandium plant in North America. In FIG. 02 those six additional tonnes a year stand against announced project capacity of 289 tonnes. Sunrise Energy Metals and the Syerston project Sunrise Energy Metals, listed on the Australian Securities Exchange under the code SRL, released feasibility study results for its Syerston project in New South Wales on 3 March 2026, under an announcement titled “Sunrise Advances Plans for Scandium Supply as Chinese Export Controls Tighten for AI, Defence and Chip Markets”. The study describes 60 tonnes a year of scandium oxide at better than 99.9 per cent purity over a 32-year life, a development cost of approximately US$120 million and C1 cash operating costs of US$534 a kilogram, which is the direct cost of making a kilogram at the plant, before interest, tax and the cost of building the plant in the first place. It was completed by GR Engineering Services. [R13] Those March figures have since been overtaken. On 10 August 2026 Sunrise announced that the United States Office of Strategic Capital had conditionally committed up to US$400 million under a proposed 25-year debt facility, with the money released in stages as the project meets agreed milestones and satisfies the conditions attached to the facility. The company presented a revised capital estimate of approximately A$450 million to A$475 million, which the company describes as a scope change rather than a cost overrun, adding a plant in the United States that converts scandium oxide into scandium metal, a refinery producing a broader range of scandium compounds, and more water and power infrastructure. A second phase could add 120 tonnes a year, taking Syerston to a potential 180 tonnes. [R14] The United States Department of War release on the same commitment states that the financing gives the department a right of first offer on Sunrise's output, meaning Sunrise has to offer the material to the department before selling it to anyone else. [R21] NioCorp, Elk Creek and a memorandum of understanding NioCorp plans approximately 100 tonnes a year of scandium oxide from its Elk Creek project in Nebraska, once project financing and construction are complete. On 4 August 2026 the company and Lockheed Martin signed what the release describes as a non-binding memorandum of understanding covering potential purchases of up to 15 tonnes a year, in oxide form or as aluminium-scandium alloys, over ten years. The release states that there is no assurance a definitive agreement will be reached or as to its eventual terms. [R12] WHAT A NON-BINDING MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING IS A memorandum of understanding records that two parties have discussed something and intend to keep talking. It is not a contract to buy, it carries no volume commitment and no price, and either side can walk away without penalty. It is evidence that a large defence manufacturer is interested enough to put its name on a document. It is not booked revenue and a lender or a valuer cannot treat it the way they would treat an offtake agreement, which is a binding contract under which a buyer commits to take an agreed volume. Adding the announced numbers gives 289 tonnes a year, made up of Rio Tinto at nine, Syerston at up to 180 across both phases and Elk Creek at approximately 100. Of that total, three tonnes exists today and six more are funded. Everything else requires money that has not all been raised and construction that has not started. TABLE 01 sets out every capacity and demand number in this work beside the kind of number it is. 8.00 — THREE SCENARIOS, TESTED AGAINST THE EVIDENCE Niche, controlled Western expansion, and broad aluminium adoption These three scenarios are Samso analytical constructions. They are not published forecasts, and the third one is informed by, but not identical to, the additional share scenario in Phoung and colleagues. [R2] Scenario one, scandium stays a niche The evidence for it is already set out above. Public market data is thin, present consumption is small, qualification is slow, and announced capacity exceeds several published estimates of the current market by a wide margin. The economics are difficult for any project whose assumed selling price is well above the observable commercial quotation. [R1][R2] What would confirm it is project delays, weak conversion economics, no binding offtake converting from the current memoranda, and continued use only in high-value niches such as fuel cells and defence. In that outcome the lower price does not create enough volume to matter, and producers that already recover scandium as a by-product, and whose plants are built and paid for, have the advantage over new standalone projects. Scenario two, controlled Western expansion Funded commitments have already been made. Rio Tinto and the Canada Growth Fund are funding built capacity. The United States has moved to stockpile the material and has conditionally committed US$400 million to one project. A large defence manufacturer has signed a memorandum with another. Each of those is a step, and none of them is a contract to buy at volume. [R10][R14][R12][R18] What has to happen is staged capacity rather than simultaneous delivery, binding customer contracts replacing the current memoranda, product qualification, and a price that covers an efficient producer without returning the alloy to small-lot economics. This case does not require demand to stall, and it does not require the car industry to adopt scandium quickly. Samso treats it as the working assumption. Scenario three, broad aluminium-scandium adoption The published support is the 5,500 tonne scenario in Phoung and colleagues, driven mostly by vehicle light-weighting. The published caution is in the same paper. The authors lacked public automotive data, used simplifying assumptions, and calculated that the entire proposed project pipeline could deliver about 1,800 tonnes by 2030. Their 5,500 tonne figure demonstrates scale, and it is not a demand forecast. [R2] What has to happen is a long chain. Oxide prices, master alloy conversion and recycling all have to become economic. Multi-source supply has to be dependable enough that a manufacturer will design around it. Original equipment manufacturers have to qualify the alloys. The value in the finished product has to outweigh redesign and certification costs. This is the largest of the three scenarios, and it depends on the greatest number of steps that have not been demonstrated. Coffee with Samso The same companies, on the record Coffee with Samso is the interview series. Management answering questions in long form, so the people behind a project can be judged alongside the numbers in a piece like this one. Free to watch. Companies commission an interview, and it stays free to everyone, permanently. Watch the interviews → 9.00 — RIMFIRE PACIFIC MINING AS A CASE STUDY A projected 60 to 90 per cent, a measured 11 per cent, and the fourteen days between them Rimfire Pacific Mining (ASX: RIM) holds the Murga scandium deposit in the Fifield district of central New South Wales. Rimfire is included as a case study of how an early-stage project is presented against a commodity story, and of what an investor has to check before accepting that it does. The resource, and what Inferred means On 13 April 2026 Rimfire reported a Murga mineral resource estimate of 56.1 million tonnes at 138 parts per million scandium, containing 7,760 tonnes of scandium metal, equivalent to 11,900 tonnes of scandium oxide at the standard 1.5338 conversion. The estimate counts only rock grading at least 100 parts per million, which is called the cut-off grade, and anything weaker is left out. It is reported under the JORC Code 2012. [R15] READING A RESOURCE STATEMENT The JORC Code is the Australian standard that governs how a company reports what is in the ground. It sorts resources into three confidence levels. Inferred is the lowest, based on limited drilling and sampling. Indicated is better, and Measured is the highest. The whole Murga resource is Inferred. That is a statement about how much rock is estimated to be there and at what grade. It is not an ore reserve, it carries no mine plan, and it says nothing about how much scandium could actually be recovered or at what cost. Parts per million is what it sounds like. At 138 parts per million, a tonne of rock contains about 138 grams of scandium. PLATE 01 is the company's own picture of that estimate. The coloured blocks are modelled scandium grade in parts per million, the small green crosses are drill collars, which are the points where a hole was started, and the blue dashed line is the edge of the Murga Intrusive Complex, the body of rock that hosts the deposit. The white ground inside that line is not a statement that there is nothing there. It is ground the block model does not reach, which is the picture behind the word Inferred. [R15] The metallurgical question, and why iron content is the point Murga averages approximately 16 per cent iron, which Rimfire describes as low compared with other scandium deposits in the Fifield district. Iron content decides which extraction route is available. High-pressure acid leaching dissolves the ore in acid inside a pressure vessel at high temperature, which works on iron-rich material and is expensive to build and run. Atmospheric leaching does the same job in an open tank or heap at ordinary pressure, which costs far less if the ore releases its scandium at ordinary pressure. Rimfire is testing whether Murga's ore does that. [R15][R16] What the June test actually reported On 23 June 2026 Rimfire released a document headed “Strong Encouragement from Initial Murga Scandium Metallurgical Study”. Two samples of about 3.5 kilograms each were tested, one of laterite and one of saprolite. Those are the two layers of weathered rock that form near the surface when the original rock breaks down over a very long time, and they behave differently in a chemical process. Each was a composite, meaning material from several depths blended into one, and both came from a single diamond drillhole numbered FI2679, diamond drilling being the method that cuts a solid cylinder of rock out of the ground so the sample keeps its original structure. [R16] The samples were bottle roll leached at atmospheric pressure and ambient temperature over 14 days at a laboratory called Simulus. A bottle roll test tumbles crushed rock with acid in a sealed bottle, and it is the cheapest and earliest way to see whether a metal will dissolve out at all. [R16] PLATE 02 is the company's photograph of the equipment that does it. The bottles are the drums lying on the powered rollers, and the rig in the picture is the whole of the test. That is worth seeing, because a 60 to 90 per cent recovery projection sounds like a plant and this is what stood behind it in June. [R16] The headline finding was stated conditionally. At the end of the 14-day period, enough scandium had been recovered to indicate that if the same rate of extraction were maintained over a period more typical of industry norms, recoveries of 60 to 90 per cent could potentially be achieved, subject to confirmation by further testing over a longer period. The document carries no recovery-against-time chart and no measured end-of-test recovery figure. [R16] The August clarification On 13 August 2026 Rimfire issued a clarification of those results at the request of the ASX and in accordance with Listing Rule 5.7, which lets the exchange require a company to explain or expand on information it has released. Samso has read that release. What follows is taken from it. [R17] The measured recoveries at the end of the 14-day tests were 11.3 per cent for the saprolite sample and 10.5 per cent for the laterite sample. The 60 to 90 per cent figure was produced by fitting a straight line of best fit to the 14-day data, deliberately excluding the initial rapid extraction, and extending that line over 200 days. The company states that forming a definitive conclusion on ultimate scandium recoveries from 14 days of data is premature and potentially misleading, and it advises shareholders and potential investors in terms not to use the raw average recovery rate, 0.807 per cent a day for saprolite and 0.75 per cent a day for laterite, as the basis for working out recoveries over longer periods. The approach and the projection were reviewed and ratified by the company's metallurgical process consultant and Competent Person, Boyd Willis. [R17] FIG. 05 shows what that extrapolation does. The solid line is the reported test. The shaded wedge is not measured data. It is the range produced by carrying a straight line from day 14 out to day 200. The company's argument for doing so is that heap leaching of laterite nickel cobalt scandium deposits with a similar mineralogy typically runs for 100 to 250 days or longer, and that published work shows European and West Australian saprolite ores reaching 70 to 80 per cent extraction over extended leaching. It cites two papers, on the Murrin Murrin and Caldag operations. The argument against it is that leach curves usually flatten rather than continue straight, and that two composites from one drillhole are a very small basis for either view. [R17] THE QUALIFICATION THIS SECTION REQUIRES No published result reviewed here establishes an economic recovery, a final flowsheet, reagent consumption at scale, product purity, capital cost, operating cost, an ore reserve, a production rate or a saleable price for Murga. Atmospheric leaching is not automatically cheap. Acid consumption, residence time, impurity handling, recovery and downstream purification all still have to work at a cost that a 138 parts per million deposit can carry. The 11.3 per cent and 10.5 per cent are measured numbers from two composites out of one drillhole. The 60 to 90 per cent is a projection the company itself has told investors not to derive from the daily rate. Rimfire says further bottle roll tests are underway to check the result. SAMSO TAKE The clarification Rimfire issued is more informative than the release it was correcting. The point for an investor is that the next useful evidence from Murga is a longer leach test, not another comparison of contained metal against the neighbouring deposit. What would be good to see is a recovery curve that runs long enough to flatten out, a count of where every gram of scandium ended up, whether the other metals that dissolve alongside it cause a problem, how much acid gets used up getting it out, and whether the product that comes out the end meets what a buyer will actually accept. Rimfire has two bottle roll tests running over 160 to 180 days. That data, when it lands, is the thing to read. Support Samso Independent, organic, and free to read We produce independent organic content and need your support to keep that going. Every contribution covers the cost of research, keeps the site running, and buys the time to write the next piece. A$10, A$20, A$30 or an amount you choose One time, weekly, monthly or yearly A donation buys nothing and unlocks nothing. It keeps the work going. Support Samso → 10.00 — WHO OWNS MURGA, WHO IS NEXT DOOR, AND WHO IS PAYING Four kilometres from Syerston, and a partner who can take 50.1 per cent The metallurgy in section 9.00 is one half of the Rimfire question. The other half is corporate. Three questions matter here. Who owns the deposit, who is beside it, and who is paying for the next round of work. All three moved in 2026. Rimfire owns Murga today and may hold less than half of it later Murga is on exploration licence EL8935, which Rimfire describes as wholly owned by the company. That licence forms part of the Fifield Project, and the Fifield Project is subject to an earn-in agreement with Golden Plains Resources Pty Ltd. Under it, Golden Plains can earn a 50.1 per cent interest by completing exploration expenditure and by arranging the funding to build a mine. That funding has to be firm, irrevocable and non-recourse. Non-recourse means it would be repaid only out of what the mine itself earns. The funding also has to rest on a detailed feasibility study, which is the engineering and costing work that says whether a mine is worth building. [R15][R16] Fifty point one per cent is a majority. If Golden Plains completes the earn-in, Rimfire holds 49.9 per cent of Murga and Golden Plains holds control. The 11,900 tonnes of contained scandium oxide in section 9.00 is a 100 per cent of deposit figure, which is the ordinary way to report a resource. It is not a figure attributable to Rimfire shareholders once the earn-in completes. Rimfire states the expenditure hurdle as A$3.6 million on its own website and in its 23 June 2026 announcement, and as A$4.5 million over three years in the 13 April 2026 resource announcement. The two documents state different figures, and Samso has not been able to reconcile them. Against the A$3.6 million figure, the 2025 annual report records A$3.375 million already incurred, so the expenditure condition is close to being met. [R15][R16][R23] THE PART AN INVESTOR SHOULD READ TWICE Rimfire attempted to terminate the Fifield and Avondale earn-in agreements in September 2024, following a change of control at Golden Plains. Golden Plains took the matter to arbitration and Rimfire lost. The 2025 annual report records that the arbitrator ordered the termination notices be set aside. Rimfire did not appeal and was ordered to pay Golden Plains A$825,000 in costs. That is why the earn-in is live today. [R23] The June 2026 quarterly records that Golden Plains has raised queries following an external audit, covering previous payments, accounting processes and management committee processes, with the possibility of further arbitration. The relationship is not settled. [R34] The company has had one result go the other way. On 8 July 2026 Rimfire announced that it had secured 60 per cent of the Avondale Project, where Golden Plains ended up with a confirmed 40 per cent interest rather than the 75 per cent it could have earned. Avondale covers the Melrose and Currajong deposits. Murga is not part of Avondale and its earn-in is separate and still running. [R24][R23] Four kilometres from the project the United States just backed Murga is about 4 kilometres south of Sunrise Energy Metals' Syerston scandium deposit, roughly 70 kilometres north-west of Parkes in central New South Wales. At the closest point Rimfire reports the northern boundary of the Murga exploration target as 1.2 kilometres from the southern boundary of the Syerston deposit. An exploration target is an estimate of what might be found with more drilling, and it is deliberately not the same thing as a mineral resource. Those are deposit and target distances rather than licence boundaries, and Samso has not verified that the two licences adjoin. [R15][R25] PLATE 03 is Rimfire's own map of the district, and it is the fastest way to see the company's position. Murga and Syerston appear near the centre, close enough that their labels stack. The tonnage against each deposit is contained scandium oxide, and the figures shown for the deposits Rimfire does not own are the company's rendering of what its neighbours have reported rather than anything Samso has checked. Read the labels and the comparison the market keeps making is right there, 12 thousand tonnes at Murga against 32.3 thousand tonnes at Syerston. [R35] Syerston is the project that received the conditional United States Office of Strategic Capital commitment described in section 7.00. Sunrise has been chaired by the mining financier Robert Friedland since September 2016, first as co-chairman and as sole chairman since May 2026. His private Singapore company Ivanhoe Capital Holdings Pte Ltd is the largest shareholder on the register, holding 16.59 per cent at the December 2025 notice of meeting. A holding of just under 20 per cent was reported in May 2026. Anyone holding more than 5 per cent of an ASX-listed company has to lodge a notice saying so and update it as the holding moves, which is how those figures become public. [R26][R27][R28] WHAT THE SUNRISE REGISTER ACTUALLY SHOWS Sunrise Energy Metals is not owned by Robert Friedland and it is not an Ivanhoe Mines company. Ivanhoe Mines does not appear on the Sunrise register at all. Friedland chairs the company and his private vehicle is its largest shareholder at just under a fifth. That is a significant position and it is not control. Samso could not obtain the raw notice behind the May 2026 figure, so that number is taken from the ASX register as republished, not from the filing itself. Friedland has spoken about the metal directly. In the 10 August 2026 Sunrise announcement he said that the world has entered an era in which access to critical minerals will shape industrial strength, technology leadership and national security, that scandium is one of the clearest examples, and that the company aims to establish Syerston as a cornerstone of Western scandium supply. That is the chairman of a company seeking finance for a scandium project, so it is a statement of position rather than evidence of demand. [R14] A new chair, two point three million dollars, and an adviser paid in paper Rimfire asked for its shares to stop trading on 3 August 2026, which is a trading halt, and was then suspended from quotation on 5 August, which is the exchange stopping trade rather than the company pausing it. Trading resumed on 7 August. On that day it announced the appointment of Bronwyn Barnes as Executive Chair effective 1 September 2026, alongside a placement. Ian McCubbing moved to Non-Executive Director, David Hutton to Technical Director, and Andrew Knox retired from the board. Barnes is in litigation with a former employer. FrontPageAfrica reported on 6 February 2026 that she has filed proceedings in the Supreme Court of Western Australia over her dismissal from Ivanhoe Atlantic, and that the company says the action is without merit and that it will defend it. Neither side's account has been tested and Samso has not seen the court file. [R33][R29] The placement, which is an issue of new shares to selected investors rather than to all shareholders, is 287,500,000 shares at A$0.008 for A$2.3 million, with one free option attached to every share. An option is a right to buy another share later at a price fixed now, in this case A$0.015, and this one expires in August 2029. A further 20 million options were issued to the brokers involved. No lead manager was appointed. Directors and management committed A$580,000, which includes 73,225,000 shares to Barnes subject to shareholder approval. Counting the placement shares, the free attaching options and the broker options, the raising puts up to 595,000,000 new securities in front of existing holders. Samso could not obtain a confirmed pre-placement share count, so the dilution is not expressed here as a percentage. A reader who wants that number should take the shares on issue from the company's latest Appendix 2A. [R29][R30] The stated use of funds is scandium work programs, drilling and general working capital. The company's own wording is high impact drilling programs. No split between those three is given, so the amount going to the long-duration leach tests described in section 9.00 is not disclosed. [R30] Barnes receives fixed remuneration of A$250,000 a year and up to 165 million performance rights, which are rights to receive shares once stated conditions are met. 25 million vest on grant. A further 40 million vest if the share price averages A$0.03 over 15 trading days, weighted by how many shares changed hands on each of those days, and another 40 million at A$0.05. The last 60 million vest on commencement of a fully funded feasibility study for the Fifield Earn In, at any time to 31 August 2029. [R29] SAMSO TAKE Read that last vesting condition against the earn-in above and it is an interesting piece of structuring. The feasibility study under the Fifield agreement is the Golden Plains obligation, and it is the step that carries Golden Plains to 50.1 per cent. So the largest single tranche of the incoming chair's performance rights vests on the event that takes Rimfire to a minority of its own deposit. In my opinion that is not necessarily wrong, because a funded feasibility study on a deposit this early is worth more to a shareholder than 100 per cent of something that never gets studied. It is simply something an investor should understand before reading the number as an alignment measure. That reading is Samso's inference from two documents, not a statement by the company. On 9 July 2026 Rimfire appointed Xcelsior Capital Advisors Limited as a global critical minerals adviser, to engage with potential strategic partners, offtake partners meaning buyers who commit to take product, original equipment manufacturers, governments and financial institutions, and to provide ongoing scandium market research. Xcelsior is a London firm, operating under the licence of another regulated firm rather than holding its own regulatory authorisation, and it describes itself as a provider of senior secured loans, working capital facilities and prepayments to critical minerals producers. [R31] Rimfire paid the adviser in options rather than cash. Rimfire agreed to issue 32,738,797 unlisted options at an exercise price of A$0.0165, the number set as US$250,000 divided by the 30-day volume weighted average price. Rimfire describes Xcelsior as an investment partner of Wogen, a metals and minerals trading group with more than 50 years in critical minerals markets including scandium. That description of Wogen is Rimfire's. Xcelsior's own published material does not mention scandium. [R31][R32] The connection an investor will notice, and what it is actually made of Before Rimfire, Bronwyn Barnes was chief executive, and later president and chief executive, of High Power Exploration, which became Ivanhoe Atlantic. That company is reported to be majority owned by Robert Friedland, the same financier who chairs Sunrise Energy Metals, whose Syerston deposit lies about 4 kilometres north of Murga. She held the role from about late 2022 until early 2026, and was reported to have been recruited by Friedland personally. Those reports are from named news outlets rather than company filings. [R33] Rimfire's appointment release names three of her current roles, Executive Chair of Indiana Resources, Non-Executive Chair of Finder Energy and chair of Freedom Metals Acquisition Corporation. It does not name the Ivanhoe Atlantic role. There is no general obligation to list every past position in an appointment release, and Samso draws no conclusion from the omission. [R29] Nothing in the public record connects the Rimfire appointment to Robert Friedland, to Sunrise Energy Metals or to Syerston. Samso found no Friedland shareholding in Rimfire and no corporate link between Xcelsior Capital and any Friedland entity. The only established thread is a past employment relationship at another company, in another commodity and in another country, which ended in early 2026. SAMSO TAKE Our industry runs on who you know, and nobody in mining should pretend otherwise. A company at Rimfire's stage needs people who can open doors at governments, financiers and original equipment manufacturers, and on paper the new chair and the new adviser both bring that. What I would caution against is treating a connection as a substitute for a result. The Friedland relationship is in the past. The Xcelsior mandate is real but it is paid in options and has produced no announced transaction yet. The 4 kilometres to Syerston is geology, not a commercial arrangement. Hence, in my opinion, the connections are worth knowing about and they are not evidence of anything yet. The thing to watch is still the long-duration leach data and whether a funded feasibility study actually starts. 11.00 — THE CASE AGAINST EVERYTHING ABOVE The version of this story where the falling price means exactly what it appears to mean Every argument in this work depends on the idea that a lower, stable scandium price could create a larger market. The opposing case is set out below. THE STANDING COUNTERARGUMENT The price is falling because demand is weak, and that is the ordinary reading. Chinese by-product capacity has grown, the buyers have not, and the price is doing what a price does when supply exceeds demand. Nothing in the published data rules this out. Aluminium-scandium alloys have been technically understood since the 1970s and are still not in volume production outside a small set of applications. A material that has had fifty years to be adopted and has not been adopted may simply not be commercially competitive, whatever the price does. The Western capacity being announced is a policy response, not a market response. Governments are funding it in response to the Chinese export controls. No commercial customer has been shown to be waiting for the output. Policy funding can stop, and a project built on a stockpile contract has one customer. If 289 tonnes a year of announced capacity arrives in a market that consumed about 60 tons last year and produced about 80, the price falls further and most of the projects do not earn their capital back. That outcome only requires the projects to be built roughly on schedule. Public data cannot rule that case out. It differs from the argument above on timing and sequencing rather than on any disputed fact. Both readings use the same USGS series, the same two papers and the same company announcements. 12.00 — THE SAMSO WAY, SEEK THE RESEARCH Label every number before you use it The published research settles several points that commentary on scandium usually leaves open. In Phoung and colleagues, the size of a scenario is driven by an assumed product share rather than by a confident demand forecast. Sverdrup and Sverdrup found resources, recoverability, infrastructure and market function to be linked, so they cannot be argued separately. In Bass, adoption accelerates only once early users appear. Wright measured cost falling with accumulated experience, though not on a timetable anyone is entitled to assume. From basic economics, a lower price usually raises the quantity bought, and elasticity decides whether that response is commercially meaningful. [R2][R3][R4][R5][R6][R7] The method Samso applies to a market like this one is to label every number before using it. TABLE 01 does that for every figure in this work. Seven categories cover almost everything an investor will encounter in scandium. They are an observed fact or government statistic, a peer-reviewed scenario, a model output, a company assumption or company-reported result, a proposed or nameplate capacity, a non-binding memorandum or conditional commercial expression, and a Samso illustrative calculation. Once those labels are visible, a market whose numbers are hard to compare becomes possible to assess, because the reader can see which numbers are supported and which stand in for work that has not been done yet. 13.00 — SAMSO CONCLUDING COMMENTS A bigger market and a higher price are not the same trade The number most scandium commentary tracks is the oxide price. A return to US$3,000 or US$5,000 a kilogram would help a producer's revenue per unit. It would also keep scandium outside the economics of broad aluminium use, which FIG. 04 puts in numbers. A lower, stable price with dependable Western availability might create more value through volume, qualification and learning. That outcome is plausible and it is not proven. In the bear case, proposed supply arrives before demand and prices compress. Proposed supply arrives before demand and prices compress. In the controlled-expansion case, what is required is disciplined staging and genuine contracts rather than memoranda. The broad-adoption case requires the industry to cross several bridges at once, from metallurgy and conversion through to certification and manufacturing economics. The two-price picture in section 6.00 is the part of this work that has changed most in the past year, and it is the part Samso will keep watching. It is not clear how long a commercial quotation around US$640 a kilogram and a strategic buyer working from a far higher number can stay that far apart. How they converge, and at what level, decides which of the three scenarios in section 8.00 the market ends up in. Rimfire's relevance will be decided by evidence from Murga rather than by scandium's theoretical promise. If the atmospheric test work matures into a credible and economic processing route, meaning a proven sequence of steps that takes the rock through to a saleable product, Murga could be positioned for the lower-price, higher-volume market this work explores. Until then Murga is an Inferred resource with an untested metallurgical route, and the June 2026 result has already been the subject of an ASX-prompted clarification. THE SAMSO QUESTION Are we waiting for a higher scandium price, or are we waiting for a much bigger scandium market? They are not the same thing, and in my opinion an investor who has not decided which one they are betting on has not really made the investment yet. Samso Access Some of the work does not appear here Samso holds back a set of Insights for members, researched the same way as this one. A$20 a month See what is inside → The vocabulary, in plain English TERMS USED IN THIS PIECE Earn-in agreement. A deal where one party can acquire a share of another party's project by spending money on it, or by arranging its funding, rather than by paying cash up front. The owner keeps full ownership until the conditions are met, then gives up the agreed percentage. Non-recourse financing. A loan repaid only from what the project itself earns. If the project fails, the lender cannot pursue the borrower's other assets. Offtake. An agreement where a buyer commits in advance to take a stated quantity of product. A binding offtake is one of the things a project needs before a lender will fund it. Performance rights. Rights to receive shares once stated conditions are met, such as a share price level or a project milestone. They cost the holder nothing and they dilute other shareholders when they vest. Placement. An issue of new shares to selected investors rather than to all shareholders. It raises money quickly and dilutes anyone not included. Volume weighted average price (VWAP). The average price a share has traded at over a period, weighted by how many shares changed hands at each price. Used so a single small trade cannot set a threshold. Atmospheric leaching. Dissolving metal out of crushed ore in acid in an open tank or heap at ordinary pressure and temperature. Cheaper to build and run than a pressure vessel, and it only works if the ore releases the metal without extra heat and pressure. Bottle roll test. The earliest and cheapest leach test. Crushed ore is tumbled with acid in a sealed bottle for a set number of days to see whether the metal dissolves at all. Ex-works. A price quoted at the seller's gate, before freight, insurance and duty. An ex-works China price is not what a buyer in Europe or the United States pays. High-pressure acid leaching. Dissolving ore in acid inside a sealed pressure vessel at high temperature. It works on iron-rich material that will not leach at ordinary pressure, and it is expensive to build and to operate. Inferred, Indicated, Measured. The three confidence levels in a JORC mineral resource. Inferred is the lowest and rests on limited drilling. Measured is the highest. None of the three is an ore reserve, which is the part of a resource shown to be economically mineable. JORC Code. The Australasian Code for Reporting of Exploration Results, Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves. The Australian standard that governs how an ASX-listed company reports what is in the ground. Master alloy. A concentrated alloy, in this case aluminium containing about 2 per cent scandium, that a manufacturer adds to a larger melt to reach the loading it wants. Memorandum of understanding. A record that two parties have discussed a possible arrangement and intend to keep talking. A non-binding one carries no obligation to buy, no volume and no price. Nameplate capacity. The output a plant is designed to produce. It is a design figure, not a record of what was produced or sold. Parts per million (ppm). A grade measure. At 138 parts per million, one tonne of rock contains about 138 grams of the metal. Price elasticity. How strongly the quantity people buy responds to a change in price. Elastic means a small price cut brings a large volume increase. Inelastic means it barely moves. Qualification. The formal testing and approval process a manufacturer runs before it is allowed to use a material in a product it sells. In aerospace it can take years and cost money long before any revenue appears. Scandium oxide (Sc₂O₃). The form scandium is usually sold in. It is about 65.2 per cent scandium by mass, so one kilogram of scandium needs 1.534 kilograms of oxide. Solid oxide fuel cell. A device that turns fuel into electricity through a ceramic membrane instead of by burning it. Scandium is used to stabilise the ceramic. Sole-source solicitation. A government procurement notice stating that only one supplier is considered capable of meeting the requirement. It is an intention to buy, not a signed contract. References and sources Every source below carries an identifier from [R1] to [R35]. The same identifier appears in the body text at the point that source is used, so any number in this work can be traced to the document behind it in one step. Figures labelled FIG. are original Samso illustrations of sourced data, with the data sources named in each caption. Illustrations labelled PLATE are reproduced from the company announcement named in the credit under each one, and the credit states what in the image is the company's work rather than Samso's. Market-sensitive numbers are stated as at their published dates. Where a source is secondary rather than a primary filing, the entry says so. [R1]United States Geological Survey, “Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Scandium”, February 2026, version 1.1 March 2026. Government statistics, price series and market commentary. pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026-scandium.pdf [R2]Phoung, S., Williams, E., Gaustad, G. and Gupta, A. (2023), “Exploring global supply and demand of scandium oxide in 2030”, Journal of Cleaner Production 401, 136673. Peer-reviewed scenario study. doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2023.136673 [R3]Sverdrup, H.U. and Sverdrup, A.E. (2024), “On the Supply Dynamics of Scandium, Global Resources, Production, Oxide and Metal Price, a Prospective Modelling Study Using WORLD7”, Biophysical Economics and Sustainability 9, 2. Peer-reviewed system-dynamics model. doi.org/10.1007/s41247-024-00118-y [R4]OpenStax, Principles of Economics 3e, section 3.1, “Demand, Supply, and Equilibrium in Markets for Goods and Services”. General economics reference. openstax.org/books/principles-economics-3e/pages/3-1-demand-supply-and-equilibrium-in-markets-for-goods-and-services [R5]OpenStax, Principles of Economics 3e, section 5.3, “Elasticity and Pricing”. General economics reference. openstax.org/books/principles-economics-3e/pages/5-3-elasticity-and-pricing [R6]Bass, F.M. (1969), “A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables”, Management Science 15(5), 215 to 227. Adoption model, used here as an analogy. doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.15.5.215 [R7]Wright, T.P. (1936), “Factors Affecting the Cost of Airplanes”, Journal of the Aeronautical Sciences 3(4), 122 to 128. Origin of the learning curve. doi.org/10.2514/8.155 [R8]Czerwinski, F. (2020), “Critical Assessment 36: Assessing differences between the use of cerium and scandium in aluminium alloying”, Materials Science and Technology 36(3), 255 to 263. Metallurgical review, single author. doi.org/10.1080/02670836.2019.1702775 [R9]Ghosh, S., Dhiman, S., Gupta, A. and Jain, S. (2023), Environments 10(1), 8. Source for the reported 0.2 to 0.6 weight per cent scandium loading band. doi.org/10.3390/environments10010008 [R10]Rio Tinto, “Rio Tinto and Canada Growth Fund announce transaction to advance Canadian production of scandium”, 1 November 2025. Company announcement, nameplate capacity expansion to nine tonnes a year. www.riotinto.com/en/news/releases/2025/rio-tinto-and-canada-growth-fund-announce-transaction-to-advance-canadian-production-of-scandium [R11]Rio Tinto, “Rio Tinto opens new scandium plant in Canada”, 17 June 2021. Company announcement, three tonnes a year capacity at Sorel-Tracy. www.riotinto.com/en/news/releases/2021/Rio-Tinto-opens-new-scandium-plant-in-Canada [R12]NioCorp Developments, “Lockheed Martin and NioCorp Sign MOU”, 4 August 2026. Company announcement, expressly non-binding. niocorp.com/lockheed-martin-and-niocorp-sign-mou/ [R13]Sunrise Energy Metals (ASX: SRL), “Sunrise Advances Plans for Scandium Supply as Chinese Export Controls Tighten for AI, Defence and Chip Markets”, 3 March 2026. Syerston feasibility study results. api.investi.com.au/api/announcements/srl/3b0e39fb-094.pdf [R14]Sunrise Energy Metals (ASX: SRL), Office of Strategic Capital conditional commitment and intention to pursue a United States listing, 10 August 2026. Company announcement, revised capital estimate and phase two capacity. api.investi.com.au/api/announcements/srl/bcd06aae-771.pdf [R15]Rimfire Pacific Mining (ASX: RIM), “Murga Scandium MRE increases by 300%”, 13 April 2026. Company mineral resource estimate, JORC 2012. www.rimfire.com.au/pdf/485e4840-ca67-48ff-a8cb-ac3e7153d647/Murga-Scandium-MRE-increases-by-300.pdf [R16]Rimfire Pacific Mining (ASX: RIM), “Strong Encouragement from Initial Murga Scandium Metallurgical Study”, 23 June 2026. Company-reported test work. The company website indexes the same document as “Early Encouragement from Murga Scandium Metallurgy”. www.rimfire.com.au/pdf/4950408f-f9a3-4982-ba39-f47de0c79723/Platform/ListPage/Early-Encouragement-from-Murga-Scandium-Metallurgy.pdf [R17]Rimfire Pacific Mining (ASX: RIM), “Clarification to ASX Announcement released on 23 June 2026”, 13 August 2026. Issued at the request of the ASX under Listing Rule 5.7. Source for the 11.3 per cent and 10.5 per cent measured recoveries, the daily rates, the linear best-fit method excluding the initial rapid extraction, the 200-day extrapolation, the company’s own disclaimer, the Simulus bottle roll conditions and the drillhole FI2679 composites. www.rimfire.com.au/ [R18]United States Defense Logistics Agency, sole-source solicitation SP8000-25-R-0021, “Scandium Oxide Sole Source to Rio Tinto Services”, posted 16 September 2025. Procurement notice, not an executed contract. sam.gov/opp/6a9f3a2cef0f4627877199ee00f04312/view [R19]Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China, Announcement No. 18 of 2025, export control on certain medium and heavy rare earth related items, effective 4 April 2025. Section VI lists scandium metal, alloys, oxide and compounds. english.mofcom.gov.cn/Policies/AnnouncementsOrders/art/2025/art_0dd87cbee7b045bf93fabe6ab2faceee.html [R20]Center for Security and Emerging Technology, Georgetown University, English translation of Ministry of Commerce Announcement No. 61 of 2025, issued 9 October 2025. Translation of the Chinese original. cset.georgetown.edu/publication/mofcom-notice-2025-61/ [R21]United States Department of War, “Office of Strategic Capital Signs $400 Million Conditional Loan Commitment With Sunrise Energy Metals Limited to Expand Scandium Mining Operations”, 7 August 2026. Government announcement. www.war.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/4566598/office-of-strategic-capital-signs-400-million-conditional-loan-commitment-with/ [R22]James Cook University Advanced Analytical Centre, element to stoichiometric oxide conversion factors. Source for the 1.5338 scandium to scandium oxide factor. www.jcu.edu.au/advanced-analytical-centre/resources/element-to-stoichiometric-oxide-conversion-factors [R23]Rimfire Pacific Mining (ASX: RIM), Annual Report 2025. Source for the arbitration outcome on the Golden Plains earn-in agreements, the A$825,000 costs order and the A$3.375 million of earn-in expenditure incurred. www.rimfire.com.au/pdf/bd405257-1a0f-450a-940e-d97cdf1eb2a2/2025-Annual-Report-to-Shareholders.pdf [R24]Rimfire Pacific Mining (ASX: RIM), “Rimfire secures 60% of Avondale Project”, 8 July 2026. Golden Plains vested at 40 per cent on Avondale, which is a separate agreement from the Fifield earn-in over Murga. www.rimfire.com.au/pdf/cf75aa6b-5296-4a63-901d-8c1e781f295a/Platform/ListPage/Rimfire-secures-60-of-Avondale-Project.pdf [R25]Rimfire Pacific Mining (ASX: RIM), “Infill Scandium Drilling to commence at Murga”, 31 October 2025. Source for the 4 kilometre and 1.2 kilometre distances to the Syerston deposit. rimfire.com.au/pdf/7a773d99-0664-455d-8784-137ccd2323f6/Infill-Scandium-Drilling-to-commence-at-Murga.pdf [R26]Clean TeQ Holdings, later renamed Sunrise Energy Metals, ASX announcement, 8 September 2016. Robert Friedland appointed non-executive director and co-chairman. announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20160908/pdf/43b180v6cqz643.pdf [R27]Sunrise Energy Metals (ASX: SRL), notice of meeting, 23 December 2025. Names Ivanhoe Capital Holdings Pte Ltd as an entity associated with Robert Friedland and gives its holding as 16.59 per cent at that date. cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-03041453-3A684621 [R28]Market Index, Sunrise Energy Metals substantial shareholders, republishing ASX register data. SECONDARY SOURCE for the just under 20 per cent figure at the May 2026 notice. The underlying form was not obtained. See flag F8. www.marketindex.com.au/asx/srl [R29]Rimfire Pacific Mining (ASX: RIM), “Executive Chair Appointment and $2.3M Capital Raising”, 7 August 2026. Source for the board changes, the Barnes biography as given by the company, remuneration and performance rights. www.rimfire.com.au/pdf/ef88848a-4543-4920-ad58-27785773e9c6/Platform/ListPage/Executive-Chair-Appointment-and-23M-Capital-Raising.pdf [R30]Rimfire Pacific Mining (ASX: RIM), Appendix 3B, proposed issue of securities, 7 August 2026. Source for the placement terms, the absence of a lead manager, the director participation and the stated use of funds. www.rimfire.com.au/pdf/599a3d01-5c37-40e0-b508-4c775dabf7a1/Platform/ListPage/Proposed-issue-of-securities-RIM.pdf [R31]Rimfire Pacific Mining (ASX: RIM), “Rimfire Appoints Global Critical Minerals Advisor”, 9 July 2026, and the accompanying Appendix 3B of the same date. Source for the Xcelsior mandate and the option consideration. www.rimfire.com.au/pdf/1fcc8aa5-156b-4c55-bcef-36f70f2f793e/Platform/ListPage/Rimfire-Appoints-Global-Critical-Minerals-Advisor.pdf [R32]Argus Media, interview with Liam Farley of Xcelsior Capital, 19 December 2024, and the firm's own published material. Source for how Xcelsior describes its business and for the absence of any published scandium track record. www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2639822-q-a-xcelsior-aims-to-derisk-minor-metals-investment [R33]Gerald C. Koinyeneh, “Liberia: Ex-Ivanhoe Atlantic CEO Bronwyn Barnes Sues Company Over Alleged Unfair Sacking”, FrontPageAfrica, 6 February 2026, syndicated by allAfrica. With the same masthead’s report of 29 January 2026. SECONDARY SOURCE for Bronwyn Barnes's role at High Power Exploration and Ivanhoe Atlantic, the dates of that role, the report that she was recruited by Robert Friedland personally, and the Supreme Court of Western Australia proceedings. Not verified against company filings or a court file. The claims of both parties are untested. See flag F9. allafrica.com/stories/202602060251.html [R34]Rimfire Pacific Mining (ASX: RIM), June 2026 Quarterly Activities and Cashflow Report. Source for the Golden Plains queries following an external audit and the possibility of further arbitration. www.rimfire.com.au/pdf/5249870d-49b4-4490-a918-601ae1357208/Platform/ListPage/June-2026-Quarterly-Activities-and-Cashflow-Report.pdf [R35]Rimfire Pacific Mining (ASX: RIM), “Seismic survey to strengthen geological understanding of Fifield District”, 11 June 2026, listed on the company’s announcements page as Seismic Survey Underway at Fifield. Source for PLATE 03, the district map at Figure 2 of that release. The contained scandium oxide figures it shows for deposits Rimfire does not own are the company’s rendering of third-party reporting and are carried here as reported rather than verified. www.rimfire.com.au/pdf/a7ae5554-85af-40a0-b4d8-35c8ec50d24e/Platform/ListPage/Seismic-Survey-Underway-at-Fifield.pdf Cover photo: Aluminum ingots loaded on truck, Fumikas Sagisavas. CC0, via Wikimedia Commons (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Aluminum_ingots_loaded_on_truck.jpg). Reproduced photograph, shown faded under a navy overlay on the article thumbnail. Depth over hype. The Samso Way – Seek the Research Here at Samso, we pride ourselves on delivering content for investors that is independent and informed by over three decades of experience in the industry. Our content is well-researched and is only created if I see merit in discussing the company's story. Our mission is simple: cut through the noise and spotlight what matters—genuine stories, grounded insights, and real opportunity. Investors can explore our four core platforms: Coffee with Samso Samso Insights Samso News Samso Research There may be numerous paths to success in investing, but the common thread among successful individuals is that they remain committed to making informed decisions. Equip yourself with the right knowledge and tools, and you will be well on your way to achieving your financial goals. Most importantly, investors need to be absolutely diligent in understanding their own risk-reward tolerance and capabilities. Never bite off more than you can chew. As they say, Rome wasn’t built in a day, and the Great Wall stood because it took centuries to complete. The Samso Philosophy: Stay curious. Stay sharp. And remember—digging deeper always uncovers the real value. In Life, there is no such thing as a Free Lunch. Never bite off more than you can chew is my parting comment. Happy Investing, and the only four-letter word you need to know is DYOR. To support our independent work, please head over to our Support Page and give us a helping hand in any of the ways listed. This is a new initiative for the Samso Platform, and it was always the concept of Samso when we started this journey in 2018. Disclaimer This article is general information only. It is not financial product advice and it does not take into account any reader's objectives, financial situation or needs. It contains no price targets, no valuations and no recommendation to buy, hold or sell any security. Companies named in this article are used as historical illustrations of events that have already occurred and no view is expressed on their current merits. Readers should consider obtaining advice from a licensed financial adviser and should conduct their own research before making any investment decision. Samso and its associates may hold interests in companies mentioned. Read full Disclaimer. About Samso Samso is a trusted platform that equips dedicated investors with up-to-date industry knowledge and insights from top CEOs and thought leaders. By staying informed on business advancements and market trends, investors can enhance their financial decisions through a combination of expert guidance and their own research. The Investor's Playbook is an open-ended, evergreen educational series about how to think about investing rather than what to buy. Samso Insights | www.samso.com.au | An Investor Lens on ASX-Listed Companies

Samso Insights · The Investor's Playbook · Part 2 Part 2, Foundations In 1969 a mathematician used the Kelly criterion, a formula for working out how much of a portfolio a single position should take, to size the bets in his own fund. Then he deliberately bet less than it told him to, giving up a quarter of his growth rate to do it. Samso Research House went back to his written account of why. Noel Ong · Samso Research House · Investor Education Samso Insights Investor Education Investor's Playbook Samso Investing Series W H A T T H I S P I E C E C O V E R S 1.00 Where this sits in the series The Playbook so far, and a note on the vocabulary 2.00 A formula, and a decision to disobey it The opening scene, 3 November 1969 3.00 What the Kelly fraction asks for The two inputs the formula needs, and why they are hard to know 4.00 The case for betting less, and what it costs Thorp's half-Kelly reasoning, in his words 5.00 What twenty-eight years of it produced Thorp's track record, and what it does and does not prove 6.00 Seven events have to go right, in order, on an ASX resources project Why a cap beats a calculation when the odds cannot be known 7.00 The case for betting the full fraction The standing counterargument, in its strongest form 8.00 From where I stand Noel's own account 9.00 Samso's own reading of it The closing view 10.00 The vocabulary, in plain English Terms collected in one place 11.00 References and sources Every source, numbered 1.00 — W H E R E   T H I S   S I T S   I N   T H E   S E R I E S Part 1 introduced the formula, this one goes to the mechanics - how much of your portfolio is measured. S E R I E S C O N T E X T This is the second article in Samso's Investor's Playbook, an open-ended series reporting the working methods of accomplished investors, researchers and risk managers from primary sources. Part 1 introduced the Kelly criterion, a formula for deciding what fraction of capital to risk on a single position, as one of several independent arrivals at the same conclusion, that a position's size should be decided deliberately and in advance. It stopped short of the mechanics. This article picks the formula back up through one professional who used it to manage real money for nearly three decades, and who wrote down why he chose not to use it exactly as written. The series continues from here with an article on compound growth over decades, using Warren Buffett's own long run of results as its primary document. A note on the vocabulary. Every technical term in this piece is explained in plain English where it first appears. All of them are collected again, for reference, in a box near the end of the article, immediately before the references. 2.00 — A   F O R M U L A ,   A N D   A   D E C I S I O N   T O   D I S O B E Y   I T A partnership opens in 1969 with an instruction about size built into it

Samso Market Update | Monday, 12 October 2026 | Market close 4:30pm AEDT The S&P/ASX 200 rose 66.6 points or 0.76% on the ASX today to close at 8,783.2, led by banks and miners. The All Ordinaries, which tracks the 500 largest listed companies, rose 59.3 points or 0.67% to 8,937.0. The S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries, an index of the companies ranked 101 to 300 by size, slipped 3.0 points or 0.09% to 3,278.9. More shares fell than rose across the whole market. This morning's pre-market edition is below, and Friday's edition is ASX today, Friday 9 October 2026. ASX today: Key Highlights The ASX 200 rose 0.76% to 8,783.2. Financials rose 1.56% and materials rose 1.52%. Seven of the 11 ASX 200 sectors fell. Communication services fell 1.94%, with Telstra down 2.52% and TPG Telecom down 4.90%. Of 1,545 companies that traded, 523 rose, 671 fell and 351 were unchanged. Kaoko Metals (ASX: KAO) fell 56.5% to 84 cents on the day it reported its first assay results from Namibia. EBR Systems (ASX: EBR) fell 40.4% on the day it released a quarterly update. Metro Mining (ASX: MMI) fell 25.4% on the day it released its September operational update. Copper futures rose 1.38% and Brent crude futures fell 1.07% by the close. Banks and miners lift the index, telcos fall Financials, the sector that holds the banks, rose 1.56%. Materials, which holds the miners, rose 1.52%. Westpac rose 2.70% to A$34.63, National Australia Bank rose 2.26% to A$38.53, ANZ rose 1.96% to A$37.91 and Commonwealth Bank rose 1.15% to A$151.00. BHP rose 2.45% to A$62.43, Fortescue rose 2.87% to A$15.78 and Rio Tinto rose 1.60% to A$164.96. ABC News linked the iron ore miners' gains to a rise in iron ore futures. Gold miner Northern Star Resources rose 2.50% to A$25.00. Communication services, the sector that holds the telcos, fell 1.94%, the weakest of the 11. Telstra fell 2.52% to A$4.65. ABC News and Market Index reported that telco shares fell around the world after reports that SpaceX had agreed to buy mobile spectrum, the radio frequencies phone networks use, in a deal of about US$8 billion. ABC said this raised fears of competition from satellite phone services. Real estate fell 1.39%, with Goodman Group down 1.91%. Consumer staples fell 0.56%, with Woolworths down 1.31%. Smaller companies did not share the gains. The Small Ordinaries slipped 0.09%. The Commonwealth Bank's wage report found annual wage growth held at 3.3% in September, according to ABC News. The official labour force figures are due on Thursday. Blue Chips (above A$1 billion) These are Samso's size bands, measured at Friday's close. They are not the same as the Small Ordinaries index. Turnover is the dollar value of shares traded today. TABLE 01 below lists the top five gainers and fallers in each band. Gainers Southern Cross Electrical Engineering (ASX: SXE) rose 7.78% to A$4.99 on turnover of A$13.8 million. It announced before the open that it will buy Entire Operations, a Victorian fire protection and air-conditioning services group, for up to A$112.1 million. It lifted its guidance for EBITDA, earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation, for the year to June 2027 to at least A$110 million, including Entire. DPM Metals (ASX: DPM) rose 5.88% to A$59.23 on turnover of A$1.2 million. No ASX announcement today. Zip Co (ASX: ZIP) rose 5.56% to A$2.28 on turnover of A$36.2 million. No ASX announcement today. Megaport (ASX: MP1) rose 4.79% to A$19.68 on turnover of A$24.4 million. No ASX announcement today. Fallers EQ Resources (ASX: EQR) fell 7.69% to 30 cents on turnover of A$17.1 million. No ASX announcement today. TPG Telecom (ASX: TPG) fell 4.90% to A$3.69 on turnover of A$13.8 million. No ASX announcement today. Electro Optic Systems (ASX: EOS) fell 3.95% to A$9.73 on turnover of A$41.8 million. On Friday it announced a counter-drone defence contract worth about A$700 million with a Gulf state. Today it said the UK Ministry of Defence had named that customer as Kuwait. Cleanaway Waste Management (ASX: CWY) fell 3.62% to A$2.66 on turnover of A$80.9 million. It said EQT Infrastructure is still finishing its due diligence on its proposal to buy Cleanaway through a scheme of arrangement, a takeover voted on by shareholders and approved by a court. The two companies extended their exclusive talks to 19 October 2026. Mid Caps (A$500 million to A$1 billion) Gainers Cogstate (ASX: CGS) rose 10.14% to A$3.80 on turnover of A$3.8 million. It reported US$25.1 million of new sales contracts in the September quarter, up from US$21.4 million a year earlier. IperionX (ASX: IPX) rose 5.91% to A$2.33 on turnover of A$4.5 million. No ASX announcement today. Clarity Pharmaceuticals (ASX: CU6) rose 4.07% to A$1.92 on turnover of A$4.6 million. No ASX announcement today. Fallers Lifestyle Communities (ASX: LIC) fell 9.72% to A$3.81 on turnover of A$1.6 million. No ASX announcement today. Core Lithium (ASX: CXO) fell 6.12% to 23 cents on turnover of A$8.8 million. Its only release today set the date for its quarterly report, due on Wednesday. Brazilian Rare Earths (ASX: BRE) fell 4.89% to A$2.92 on turnover of A$3.4 million. No ASX announcement today. Small Caps (A$150 million to A$500 million) Gainers Berkeley Energia (ASX: BKY) rose 13.11% to 69 cents on turnover of A$274,000. No ASX announcement today. Omega Oil & Gas (ASX: OMA) rose 13.08% to 73.5 cents on turnover of A$4.4 million. It reported that its Canyon-4 well in Queensland's Taroom Trough found 197 metres of net pay, the thickness of rock judged to hold oil and gas that could flow. The company called it its best Canyon result so far. Titomic (ASX: TTT) rose 9.52% to 11.5 cents on turnover of A$123,000. It announced a Netherlands Army contract to develop a battle damage prototype. Horizon Gold (ASX: HRN) rose 8.82% to A$1.11 on turnover of A$71,000. It reported 44 metres downhole at 5.08 grams of gold a tonne, starting 144 metres down the hole, at Gum Creek in Western Australia. Fallers EBR Systems (ASX: EBR) fell 40.43% to 14 cents on turnover of A$3.9 million. It reported 40 implants of its wireless heart pacing device in the September quarter, down from 46 in the June quarter and below its own forecast. It expects quarterly revenue of US$2.43 million to US$2.53 million. Metro Mining (ASX: MMI) fell 25.42% to 88 cents on turnover of A$2.2 million. It shipped 659,000 wet tonnes, a weight that includes moisture, of bauxite in September. Bauxite is the ore used to make aluminium. A sandbank collapse made its barging channel shallower, and its calendar-year shipping guidance is under review. Ionic Rare Earths (ASX: IXR) fell 13.39% to 55 cents on turnover of A$1.0 million. No ASX announcement today. Ballard Mining (ASX: BM1) fell 9.09% to 65 cents on turnover of A$616,000. It announced a placement, a sale of new shares to selected investors, to fund drilling and early works. Micro Caps (below A$150 million) Gainers Image Resources (ASX: IMA) rose 42.11% to 2.7 cents on turnover of A$157,000. No ASX announcement today. Terra Metals (ASX: TM1) rose 34.48% to 19.5 cents on turnover of A$633,000 before it entered a trading halt, a pause in trading that the company requests. The company said it needs time to answer an ASX price query. A price query is a letter asking a company to explain an unusual share price move. It also plans to release exploration results. The halt runs until Wednesday's open at the latest. Native Mineral Resources (ASX: NMR) rose 15.38% to 6 cents on turnover of A$162,000. It announced a refinancing to support growth in its gold production. Fallers Kaoko Metals (ASX: KAO) fell 56.48% to 84 cents from A$1.93 on turnover of A$4.5 million. It reported its first assays, the laboratory results from drill samples, from its Chalkos copper-silver project in Namibia. The first hole returned 37.1 metres downhole at 1.23% copper and 15.2 grams of silver a tonne, starting 54 metres down the hole. The company said drilling is continuing. Samso's Kaoko Metals research workup set out what the drilling had and had not yet shown before today's assays. Sentinel Metals (ASX: SNM) fell 20.20% to 39.5 cents on turnover of A$170,000. No ASX announcement today. BOA Resources (ASX: BOA) fell 19.44% to 14.5 cents on turnover of A$915,000. It reported copper results from 11 more holes at Ricci Lee in Western Australia, including 10 metres downhole at 2.78% copper, starting 208 metres down the hole. Assays are pending from its last 12 Ricci Lee holes. Caspin Resources (ASX: CPN) fell 19.23% to 10.5 cents on turnover of A$255,000. It reported a 45% increase in the tin in its Mineral Resource Estimate for the Kelpie deposit in New South Wales, to 28,000 tonnes. A Mineral Resource Estimate is a company's measure of how much metal it believes is in the ground. Commodities and Currency Prices at about 4:22pm AEDT, compared with Friday's close. Gold futures, contracts to buy at a set price on a later date, for December were at US$4,209.60 an ounce, down 0.16%. Silver futures were at US$61.08 an ounce, up 0.68%. Copper futures for December were at US$6.734 a pound, up 1.38%. Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, were at US$103.60 a barrel, down 1.07%. West Texas Intermediate crude futures for November, the US benchmark, were at US$90.55 a barrel, down 1.42%. ABC News, citing Reuters, reported that oil fell on expectations of more Russian supply. Iron ore futures for November on the Singapore exchange were up 0.7% at US$91.20 a tonne at 2pm AEDT, according to ABC News. The Australian dollar was buying about 69.8 US cents at 4:31pm AEDT, up 0.27% from Friday's close of about 69.6 US cents. Samso Concluding Comments The ASX 200 rose 0.76% to 8,783.2, led by the banks and the large miners. Seven of the 11 sectors fell, and 671 companies fell against 523 that rose. Communication services was the weakest sector, and ABC News reported a global fall in telco shares on SpaceX's spectrum deal. Australian labour force figures are due on Thursday. General information only. This is not financial advice. Samso Market Update | Monday, 12 October 2026 | Pre-market 9:45am AEDT Futures point to a higher open on the ASX today. ASX 200 futures were up 0.4% at 8,786 points at about 7:00am AEDT, according to ABC News. A futures contract is an agreement to buy or sell at a set price on a later date, and its price shows where traders expect the index to go. The 0.4% is measured against the previous futures close, not against Friday's index close. The S&P/ASX 200 closed on Friday at 8,716.6, up 55.7 points or 0.64%. The All Ordinaries, which tracks the 500 largest listed companies, rose 0.62% to 8,877.7. The S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries, an index of the companies ranked 101 to 300 by size, rose 0.36% to 3,281.9. The Australian dollar was buying approximately 69.8 US cents at 8:45am AEDT. Friday's edition is ASX today, Friday 9 October 2026. ASX today: Key Highlights ASX 200 futures were up 0.4% at 8,786 points at about 7:00am AEDT (ABC News). The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.83% on Friday to 51,654.95. The S&P 500 rose 0.59% and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.64%. London's FTSE 100 rose 1.06% and Germany's DAX rose 1.13% on Friday. Gold futures for December rose 1.43% to US$4,216.30 an ounce. Copper futures for December rose approximately 2.7%. Iron ore fell 0.7% to US$90.60 a tonne on Friday, according to ABC News. No Australian Bureau of Statistics release is scheduled for today. Labour force figures are due on Thursday at 11:30am AEDT. Wall Street overnight Wall Street's last session was Friday, and the main indices all rose. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 423.31 points or 0.83% to 51,654.95. The S&P 500 rose 0.59% to 7,811.54. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.64% to 27,366.17. The Russell 2000, an index of smaller US companies, rose 0.46% to 2,806.98. Yahoo Finance reported that shares rose ahead of the US company results season, which it said starts on Tuesday with the large Wall Street banks. It also reported that President Donald Trump said Russia would supply diesel to the United States and global markets, and that oil prices fell on that news. Yahoo Finance reported that a Bloomberg report on OpenAI's revenue helped technology shares recover from Thursday's falls. OpenAI is the company behind ChatGPT. The US 10-year Treasury yield was about 5.24% at about 3pm New York time on Friday, up about 1 basis point from Thursday. A Treasury is a US government bond. A bond yield is the yearly return from buying a government bond at today's price, and when yields rise, bond prices fall. A basis point is one hundredth of a percentage point. Yahoo Finance reported that the University of Michigan's early October reading of US consumer sentiment was 46.3, the lowest in five months. Japan The Nikkei 225 closed on Friday at 69,030.92, down 11.19 points or 0.02%. Trading Economics reported that the index recovered most of its earlier losses, and that technology shares stayed under pressure. ShareCafe reported that Japanese markets are closed today for a public holiday. The US dollar was buying approximately 158.27 yen at 8:45am AEDT. Samso found no Bank of Japan announcement to report. London and Europe London's FTSE 100 closed on Friday at 10,552.1, up 1.06%. Trading Economics reported that lower oil prices eased pressure on bond yields, and that software companies and miners rose. Germany's DAX rose 1.13% to 25,087.27. France's CAC 40 rose 0.95% to 7,803.33. Currencies The Australian dollar was buying approximately 69.8 US cents at 8:45am AEDT. It finished Friday's session at approximately 69.6 US cents. The US dollar index, which measures the US dollar against six major currencies, was at approximately 102.2 late on Friday, little changed from Thursday. The euro was buying approximately US$1.120 at 8:45am AEDT. The US dollar was buying approximately 158.27 yen. Commodities Gold futures for December closed on Friday at US$4,216.30 an ounce, up US$59.30 or 1.43%. The contract month is the month a futures contract falls due. Silver for December rose approximately 3.4% to US$61.05 an ounce. USAGold, a US bullion dealer, reported that demand at a US 30-year Treasury auction on Thursday pulled long-dated bond yields lower, which supported precious metals. Copper futures for December closed at US$6.692 a pound, up approximately 2.7%. Mining.com reported that copper on the London Metal Exchange rose 1.6% on Friday to US$14,540 a tonne. It reported low Chinese inventories after a week-long national holiday and a strike at Antofagasta's Centinela mine in Chile. The New York and London copper contracts close at different times, so their daily changes differ. Iron ore fell 0.7% to US$90.60 a tonne on Friday, according to ABC News. Brent crude futures closed on Friday at US$104.72 a barrel, up approximately 0.4%. West Texas Intermediate, the US oil benchmark, closed at US$91.85 a barrel for November delivery, up approximately 0.4%. Yahoo Finance reported that Brent fell more than 1% at one point on Friday. Both contracts still finished above Thursday's close. Today's diary No Australian Bureau of Statistics release is scheduled for today, according to the ABS release calendar. ABC News reported that the Commonwealth Bank's wage and labour report for September is expected this morning. Thursday, 11:30am AEDT. Labour Force, Australia (ABS). ABC News lists the Telstra annual general meeting on Tuesday, the Commonwealth Bank annual general meeting on Wednesday and Bank of Queensland's full-year results on Thursday. Samso Concluding Comments The Dow, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq all rose on Friday, and London and Frankfurt each rose by about 1.1%. Yahoo Finance reported that US shares rose ahead of the results season that starts on Tuesday. Gold, silver and copper futures rose and iron ore fell 0.7%. ASX 200 futures were up 0.4% at about 7:00am AEDT, after the index rose 0.64% on Friday. Australian labour force figures are due on Thursday at 11:30am AEDT. General information only. This is not financial advice.

Samso Insights: IOCG Prominent Hill Carrapateena - Redefining Exploration Models| Samso Introduction – Why These Two Discoveries Still Matter - Is the Cover Hiding Other Different Types of IOCGs? When we talk about modern mineral discoveries in Australia, two names inevitably surface in the same breath: Prominent Hill and Carrapateena. Both sit in South Australia’s Gawler Craton, both are world-class Iron Oxide Copper-Gold (IOCG) systems, and both ended up becoming cornerstone assets for OZ Minerals, now part of BHP. But lumping them together as “IOCG discoveries” misses the deeper story. Prominent Hill and Carrapateena were not just discoveries of ore bodies — they were discoveries of ideas. Each one forced the industry to confront uncomfortable assumptions about where mineral systems can exist, how they express themselves, and how much conviction is required to find them when there is nothing obvious at surface. In this Samso Insights piece, I want to step back from grades and tonnages and focus on something far more important: the discovery models themselves — why Prominent Hill was found the way it was, why Carrapateena required an entirely different mindset, and what these two discoveries continue to teach explorers and investors today. Let's Discuss The IOCG Factor IOCG deposits (Figure 1) are found globally and my current thought is what if they are all occurring in the same mineral system but are really defined by the amount or reactivation of geology and timing. Investors in the ASX who are chasing these stories or are told to chase these stories forget that it is very difficult in terms of the capital required and the time required to establish their value. The discovery hole is always sexy, but the establishment of a deposit like Prominent Hill or Carrapateena takes more drilling, and in recent times, the excitement has fizzled out to despair for investors. Those who rode the Minotaur Resources journey in 2001 did fare better, but this search for the next IOCG in South Australia has not been that great. There is no doubt that when the value is established by discovering something like a Tier-1 deposit, there is no mistake in realising that the value to shareholders is immediate and abundant. Figure1: Geographical distribution of IOCG provinces with selected deposits worldwide. (source: Zhu, Zhimin. (2016). Gold in iron oxide copper–gold deposits. Ore Geology Reviews. 72. 37-42. 10.1016/j.oregeorev.2015.07.001.) Setting the Scene – The Gawler Craton Before Prominent Hill - Carrapateena - The IOCG Race It is popular thinking that before Prominent Hill was drilled in 2001, the prevailing narrative around the Gawler Craton was simple: Olympic Dam was unique. Discovered in 1975, Olympic Dam was so large, so metal-rich, and so geologically complex that it was viewed more as an anomaly than a template. For years, the industry struggled to decide whether Olympic Dam represented a repeatable mineral system or a once-in-a-generation geological accident. For me, I think the Olympic Dam story is a geological event that may still not be repeated. Evaluating the genesis of a geological phenomenon like Olympic Dam will most likely draw out more questions than answers. Macmahon working underground at Olympic Dam Operations. (source: Macmahon) I tell people that if you made a discovery like Olympic Dam, why bother about how it formed? Your attention to developing and maintaining the production to its full potential will take up multiple generations as it is. Figure 2 below shows why the Gawler IOCGs are always being talked about in terms of grade and size. Olympic Dam is easily ahead of its competitors compared to other global IOCG deposits, and when you take the three biggest singular deposits together, Grasberg, Bingham, and Olympic Dam, these three are in their own league. Figure 2: A diagrammatic representation of the Gawler IOCG comparison to other known global IOCG deposits regarding copper endowment in 2006. Grade-tonnage data showing copper grades for selected IOCG deposits and other deposits (magnetite-apatite and skarn), after Williams et al. (2005: fig.3). Note the extreme range (three orders of magnitude) of copper grades when deposits are combined in this way and even one order of magnitude variation for the Cu-bearing IOCG deposits. Note also the generally higher copper (and gold, not shown) grades than those of most porphyries, at the same size. (source: Groves, David Ian et al. “Iron Oxide Copper-Gold (IOCG) Deposits through Earth History: Implications for Origin, Lithospheric Setting, and Distinction from Other Epigenetic Iron Oxide Deposits.” Economic Geology 105 (2010): 641-654. | Williams, P.J., Barton, M.D., Johnson, D.A., Fontboté, L., de Haller, A., Mark, G., Oliver, N.H.S., and Marschik, R., 2005, Iron oxide copper-gold deposits: Geology, Space-time distribution, and possible modes of origin: ECONOMIC GEOLOGY 100TH ANNIVERSARY VOLUME, p. 371–405.) In South Australia, the compounding issue is that the whole IOCG scene is under cover. Much of the Gawler Craton is buried beneath younger sedimentary basins. There were few outcrops, limited geochemical clues, and plenty of reasons to believe that meaningful exploration success would be slow, expensive, and uncertain. This is the environment in which Prominent Hill was conceived. Prominent Hill – A Discovery of Conceptual Courage The declared Ore Reserves and Mineral Resources at Prominent Hill in mid 2008, prior to the commencement of production in 2009, were: Copper resource - Measured + Indicated + Inferred Resources: 174.20 Mt @ 1.39% Cu, 0.56 g/t Au, 3.4 g/t Ag (0.5% Cu cut-off). Gold resource - Measured + Indicated + Inferred Resources: 109.2 Mt @ 0.09% Cu, 1.21 g/t Au, 1.0 g/t Ag (0.5 g/t Au cut-off & <0.5% Cu). TOTAL Resource: 283.4 Mt @ 0.89% Cu, 0.81 g/t Au, 2.48 g/t Ag. Western Copper resource (additional) - Inferred Resources: 14.5 Mt @ 1.69% Cu, 0.28 g/t Au, 3.7 g/t Ag (0.5% Cu cut-off). (source: PorterGeo - Prominent Hill) Challenging the “Olympic Dam Is Unique” Assumption Prominent Hill was discovered by Minotaur Resources in 2001, at a time when the dominant exploration risk was not depth or drilling cost, but model risk. Prominent Hill Mine Site. (source: BHP) Minotaur’s central idea was deceptively simple: If the Gawler Craton could host Olympic Dam, it should be capable of hosting other IOCG systems. That idea may sound obvious today, but at the time, it ran directly against industry thinking. The risk was not whether a target could be drilled, but whether the underlying geological thesis was even valid. The unthinkable and the lack of history are two of the biggest quandaries that mineral explorers have faced in the past and definitely in the present. The Prominent Hill Discovery Model Prominent Hill’s discovery relied on a combination of: Airborne magnetics, identifying iron-rich alteration consistent with IOCG systems Gravity surveys, confirming a dense subsurface body Moderate depth drilling, testing basement targets without extreme cost Importantly, Prominent Hill was not screaming from surface. There was no obvious copper staining or gold anomalism. The signal was subtle, and the interpretation required confidence in geophysics and mineral systems thinking. When drilling finally intersected hematite-rich breccias with copper-gold mineralisation, the implications were immediate. Olympic Dam was no longer an outlier. The IOCG model had legs. Why Prominent Hill Changed Everything Prominent Hill proved three critical points: IOCG systems are repeatable Cover does not eliminate discovery potential Conceptual thinking matters more than surface noise For the Australian exploration industry, this was a turning point. Prominent Hill didn’t just add a mine to the map — it opened an entire province. Prominent Hill planned open-cut mine - production 2009. (source GSA - IOCG Workshop - Adelaide, 24th February 2006 - Roger Skirrow) Carrapateena – Taking the Model to Its Logical Extreme JORC compliant Mineral resources as at 30 June 2020 (OZ Minerals 2020 Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves Statement ) were as follows: Measured Resource - 130 Mt @ 0.96% Cu, 0.42 g/t Au, 3.6 g/t Ag; Indicated Resource - 500 Mt @ 0.62% Cu, 0.26 g/t Au, 2.9 g/t Ag; Inferred Resource - 330 Mt @ 0.32% Cu, 0.16 g/t Au, 2.0 g/t Ag; TOTAL Resource - 950 Mt @ 0.57% Cu, 0.25 g/t Au, 2.7 g/t Ag. (source: PorterGeo - Carrapateena) From Concept to Conviction If Prominent Hill answered the question “Can IOCGs exist beyond Olympic Dam?”, then Carrapateena asked something far more confronting: “How deep are we prepared to go to find them?” Discovered by Oxiana in 2005, Carrapateena was a deliberate escalation of the Prominent Hill model. This was not conceptual bravery — this was conviction exploration. By the time Carrapateena was drilled, the industry broadly accepted that IOCGs existed across the Gawler Craton. The challenge was no longer belief; it was commitment. The Carrapateena Discovery Model Carrapateena sits beneath more than 400 metres of sedimentary cover, making it one of the most deeply buried major copper-gold discoveries in Australia. Key elements of the Carrapateena model included: Gravity as the primary targeting tool, rather than magnetics Acceptance that magnetics might be subdued or ambiguous Deep, expensive drilling, with long lead times and limited early feedback Early drilling did not deliver instant gratification. There were no spectacular first holes that screamed “discovery.” Instead, Carrapateena required patience, internal conviction, and a willingness to absorb cost without immediate validation. This is where many explorers fail. A schematic representation of the geological view of the Carapateena IOCH Deposit. (source PorterGeo - Carapateena) Why Carrapateena Worked Carrapateena succeeded because Oxiana was prepared to: Trust gravity data in covered terrain Accept delayed technical validation Maintain focus on a single, high-quality target The discovery ultimately revealed a large, vertically extensive, magnetite-rich IOCG system, distinct in character from Prominent Hill but no less significant in scale. Carrapateena proved that world-class mineral systems could exist far deeper than previously assumed — and still be economically viable. Prominent Hill vs Carrapateena – Two Very Different Risks Although both deposits sit within the same province and belong to the same mineral system family, the risks involved in their discovery were fundamentally different. Prominent Hill was dominated by model risk. Carrapateena was dominated by depth and capital risk. Prominent Hill could be tested relatively quickly and cheaply once the concept was accepted. Carrapateena required long-term funding, corporate patience, and technical resilience. This distinction is critical, particularly for investors watching today’s exploration juniors attempt to emulate these successes. Lessons for Modern Exploration - Looking for the Elusive IOCG Prize. Geological Lessons IOCG systems are not uniform — hematite-dominant and magnetite-dominant systems express differently No single geophysical tool is sufficient on its own Gravity becomes increasingly important as the cover thickens Strategic Lessons Prominent Hill shows the power of conceptual clarity Carrapateena demonstrates the necessity of financial endurance Not all “Carrapateena-style” targets are appropriate for juniors The Investor Lens – Why Does the Discovery of IOCG Deposits like Prominent Hill and Carrapateena Still Matter From a Samso perspective, these discovery models are being tested against what I call corporate matters. It's a simple description, as I always see that the technical information is typically consistent, but they have to argue against limited cash and against the opportunity cost and the resulting corporate environment after an unsuccessful drilling campaign. Prominent Hill-style exploration often suits well-run juniors: moderate depths, manageable budgets, and quicker technical feedback. Carrapateena-style exploration is a different beast entirely. It demands: Strong balance sheets Long timelines Acceptance of low news flow and high uncertainty When juniors talk about “Carrapateena analogues,” investors should ask a simple question: Do they have Carrapateena-level patience and funding? Samso Concluding Comments Prominent Hill and Carrapateena remind us that discovery is not about luck — it is about thinking clearly, committing deeply, and staying the course when validation takes time. One could say that Prominent Hill gave the industry permission to believe again in the Gawler Craton. Carrapateena forced it to grow up and accept that the next generation of discoveries would be harder, deeper, and more expensive. It is now abundantly clear that the mineral industry, especially in the Gawler, discovering IOCG deposits like Prominent Hill and Carapateena, is all about having a lot of courage, capital, and luck to seek the deep discoveries. All the easy discoveries are now a memory. For the foundation of the mineral exploration foundation, the discovery of both IOCG deposits, Prominent Hill and Carrapateena, may have formed the blueprint for modern undercover exploration at that time, and a warning that shortcuts rarely work. To mineral explorers in 2026, it is accepted that in many of the well-explored regions in Australia, one must accept that undercover mineral exploration is the norm. Fortunately, Australian explorers have been used to the deep weathering profile for many decades. To give some form of comparison, the Degrussa Copper project, which was a great copper deposit that has yet to be repeated in recent times, had a resource of 10.67 Mt @ 5.6% Cu, 1.9 g/t Au, 15 g/t Ag. The copper metal was about 597,530 tonnes of contained metal. Prominent Hill had a discovery resource of 101MT at 1.5%Cu, 0.55g/t Au for approximately 1,515,000 tonnes of contained copper metal. As quoted by PorterGeo, the JORC compliant Mineral resources for Carrapateena as at 30 June 2020 (OZ Minerals 2020 Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves Statement ) were 950 Mt @ 0.57% Cu, 0.25 g/t Au, 2.7 g/t Ag. For comparison, the Ernest Henry IOCG style CU-Au deposit in Queensland had a total reserve and resource prior to the commencement of mining in 1998 of 166 Mt @ 1.1% Cu, 0.54 g/t Au. One could say that Prominent Hill, compared to Carapateen, may be considered small in terms of resources for an IOCG, but I will take the discovery of Prominent Hill as my discovery any time. No matter the size, the discoveries of both deposits ultimately showed that depth is hiding great wealth if you have the courage and the ability to chase it. Cover photo: Chalcopyrite with garnet, magnetite and quartz (GeoDIL number - 1050), Darla Sondrol. CC0, via Wikimedia Commons (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Chalcopyrite_with_garnet,_magnetite_and_quartz_(GeoDIL_number_-_1050).jpg). Reproduced photograph, shown faded under a navy overlay on the article thumbnail. The Samso Way – Seek the Research Here at Samso, we pride ourselves on delivering content for investors that is independent and informed by over three decades of experience in the industry. Our content is well-researched and is only created if I see merit in discussing the company's story. Our mission is simple: cut through the noise and spotlight what matters—genuine stories, grounded insights, and real opportunity. Our content is well-researched and is only created if the team sees merit in discussing the company or concept. Investors can explore our three core platforms: Coffee with Samso Samso Insights Samso News There may be numerous paths to success in investing, but the common thread among successful individuals is that they remain committed to making informed decisions. Equip yourself with the right knowledge and tools, and you will be well on your way to achieving your financial goals. Most importantly, investors need to be absolutely diligent in understanding their own risk-reward tolerance and capabilities. Never bite off more than you can chew. As they say, Rome wasn’t built in a day, and the Great Wall stood because it took centuries to complete. The Samso Philosophy: Stay curious. Stay sharp. And remember—digging deeper always uncovers the real value. In Life, there is no such thing as a Free Lunch. Never bite off more than you can chew is my parting comment. Happy Investing, and the only four-letter word you need to know is DYOR. To support our independent nature of our work, please head over to our Support Page and give us a helping hand in any of the ways listed. This is a new initiate for the Samso Platform, and it was always the concept of Samso when we started this journey in 2018. Disclaimer The information or opinions provided herein do not constitute investment advice, an offer, or solicitation to subscribe for, purchase, or sell the investment product(s) mentioned herein. It does not take into consideration, nor have any regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation, risk profile, tax position and particular, or unique needs and constraints. Read full Disclaimer. Share to Grow: Your Bonus Samso has just released an eBook: How to Add Value to your Share Portfolio A lesson on geological models sought by mining companies that gives insight and an understanding of which portfolios are better - and potentially more lucrative – investments. Click here to download this eBook. Download eBook If you find this article informative and useful, please help me share the information. I try to write about topics that are interesting and have the potential to be of investment value. It is not easy to find stories that fit those parameters. If you or your organisation sees the benefit of what Samso is trying to achieve and has a need to share your journey, please contact me at noel.ong@samso.com.au. About Samso Samso is a trusted platform that equips dedicated investors with up-to-date industry knowledge and insights from top CEOs and thought leaders. 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In this episode of Samso’s Exploration Discovery Series, Ian Murray and Justin Osborne of Gold Road Resources (ASX: GOR) recount the journey behind the remarkable discovery of the Gruyere Gold Deposit, now holding nine million ounces of gold. Their story reflects the importance of challenging conventional exploration theories and making critical decisions that led to a significant find in the Yamarna Belt, previously thought to be unmineralised. The conversation dives into the excitement of discovery, the strategic pauses that allowed for thoughtful exploration, and the pivotal joint venture with Goldfields, which propelled the Gruyere project forward. Their insights reveal how successful mineral exploration often involves risk, innovative thinking, and corporate decision-making. This blog is ideal for investors and exploration enthusiasts eager to learn about the decisions and challenges that shape major gold discoveries, showcasing the potential rewards of strategic exploration in untapped regions. Sign up for your membership on Samso Insights on Patreon to read more exciting investment stories. Three types of membership on Samso Insights Choose one or more: FREE: These insights are free and available to all investors. Subscribe here for free. PAID MEMBERSHIP: If you are a bold investor and want more, you get access to the latest and most reliable information from experienced sources that are completely unbiased starting from US$10/month. Start accessing our exclusive content to help with your investment research. PAID ARTICLES: Trustworthy source of well-researched and independent information for investors. Choose what interests you and unlock your choice of article from US$10. Disclaimer The information or opinions provided herein do not constitute investment advice, an offer or solicitation to subscribe for, purchase or sell the investment product(s) mentioned herein. It does not take into consideration, nor have any regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation, risk profile, tax position and particular, or unique needs and constraints. Read full Disclaimer. If you find this article informative and useful, please help me share the information. I try and write about topics that are interesting and have the potential to be of investment value. It is not easy to find stories that fit those parameters. If you or your organisation see the benefit of what Samso is trying to achieve and have a need to share your journey, please contact me on noel.ong@samso.com.au. About Samso

Samso Market Update | Wednesday, 7 October 2026 | Market close 4:30pm AEDT The S&P/ASX 200 closed almost unchanged on the ASX today. It fell 8.0 points, or 0.09%, to 8,727.7. The All Ordinaries, which tracks the 500 largest listed companies, fell 0.10% to 8,894.6. The S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries, an index of the companies ranked 101 to 300 by size, rose 0.15% to 3,310.3. The largest single trade of the day was in SKS Technologies Group (ASX: SKS), which fell 12.26% on the day its founding family sold 10 million shares. This morning's pre-market section is below, and Tuesday's edition is ASX today, Tuesday 6 October 2026. ASX today: Key Highlights The S&P/ASX 200 fell 8.0 points, or 0.09%, to 8,727.7 (Yahoo Finance, 4:20pm AEDT). Health care was the strongest of the 11 sectors, up 1.09%. Financials were the weakest, down 0.59%. Across 1,637 ASX-listed companies, 538 rose, 527 fell and 572 were unchanged (ASX data, 4:41pm AEDT). SKS Technologies Group fell 12.26% to A$9.80 on turnover of A$119.78 million. Turnover is the dollar value of shares traded. Uranium companies rose. Bannerman Energy gained 8.58% and Deep Yellow gained 4.61%. Dalaroo Metals rose 106.67% to 15.5 cents on the day it reported the first drill results from a gold project in Côte d'Ivoire. Banks down, health care and uranium up Financials fell 0.59% and were the weakest sector. Commonwealth Bank of Australia fell 1.32% to A$150.37 and Westpac Banking Corporation fell 1.21% to A$34.24. Samso did not find a source that gave a reason for the bank falls. Materials fell 0.20%, and Fortescue fell 2.44% to A$16.01. Health care rose 1.09%, and CSL gained 1.85% to A$181.99. Real estate rose 0.81%. ABC News reported at 1:59pm AEDT that uranium shares rose after Google signed a power deal with the US company Constellation Energy. The ABC put the deal at 3,590 megawatts, with 890 megawatts of that from nuclear plants. Two pieces of domestic news came out during the session. ABC News reported Australian Bureau of Statistics figures showing that work started on 52,201 new dwellings in the June quarter, up 7%. The High Court ruled on the expansion of the Mount Pleasant coal mine in New South Wales. ABC News reported that three of five judges found planning authorities must consider the local effects of climate change when they approve a project. Samso found no Reserve Bank of Australia announcement today. The four sections below use Samso's own size bands, set on each company's market value at Tuesday's close. They are not the S&P index groups. TABLE 01 lists every mover with its turnover and announcement. Blue Chips (above A$1 billion) SKS Technologies Group (ASX: SKS) fell 12.26% to A$9.80. The company said its Executive Chairman Peter Jinks, Executive Director Greg Jinks and an entity linked to Matthew Jinks sold 10.0 million shares in an on-market crossing, which is a large sale arranged with buyers and put through the market in one trade. It said the sale was about 30% of the family's shares and the family will hold about 21% of the company. The company said the family has no intention to sell more for the foreseeable future. PYC Therapeutics (ASX: PYC) fell 7.84% to A$2.47 on the day it said it will present early data from its kidney disease drug trial at a US conference on 22 October. The company said the data came from a small number of patients over a short time and needs to be repeated in larger studies. Maas Group Holdings (ASX: MGH) fell 5.75% to A$6.39 with no ASX announcement since yesterday afternoon. Elsight (ASX: ELS) fell 5.57% to A$4.41. It had fallen 11.55% on Tuesday. Deep Yellow (ASX: DYL) rose 4.61% to A$1.135 and NexGen Energy (ASX: NXG) rose 4.25% to A$13.48. Both are uranium companies. Pantoro Gold (ASX: PNR) rose 4.55% to A$2.99 and Domino's Pizza Enterprises (ASX: DMP) rose 4.47% to A$21.28. None of the four had an ASX announcement since yesterday afternoon. Mid Caps (A$500 million to A$1 billion) Arena REIT (ASX: ARF) rose 12.98% to A$2.35. Arena owns childcare centres and leases them to operators. One operator, Edge Early Learning, is in administration, which means an outside administrator now runs it. Arena said the administrator has a conditional agreement to sell 31 Edge centres to Goodstart Early Learning, and 20 of those are among the 27 centres Arena owns. Arena said rent is being received on all 27 and the deal is still subject to due diligence. Bannerman Energy (ASX: BMN) rose 8.58% to A$3.67 and Boss Energy (ASX: BOE) rose 4.64% to A$1.58. Both are uranium companies. Rox Resources (ASX: RXL) rose 6.35% to 67 cents on the day it released an update titled "United North stope planning and high-grade drilling". Weebit Nano (ASX: WBT) rose 4.09% to A$3.56 on the day it released a response to media commentary. It had fallen 12.98% on Tuesday. Alpha HPA (ASX: A4N) fell 13.64% to 57 cents with no ASX announcement since yesterday afternoon. Santana Minerals (ASX: SMI) fell 6.60% to 49.5 cents and Core Lithium (ASX: CXO) fell 6.56% to 28.5 cents, also with no announcement. Small Caps (A$150 million to A$500 million) Elixir Energy (ASX: EXR) fell 21.05% to 6 cents. The ASX asked the company to explain the fall and the higher volume. Elixir replied that it knew of no unannounced information that could explain the trading. It said a second flow test of its Lorelle-3H gas well is still running and its talks with several parties about the company and its assets are continuing. Titomic (ASX: TTT) rose 20.00% to 12 cents and Berkeley Energia (ASX: BKY) rose 19.27% to 65 cents, both with no ASX announcement since yesterday afternoon. Berkeley's turnover was A$0.12 million. Alligator Energy (ASX: AGE) rose 8.33% to 3.9 cents on the day it reported drilling at its Samphire uranium project. Amaero (ASX: 3DA) fell 8.57% to 16 cents and Omega Oil & Gas (ASX: OMA) fell 6.47% to 65 cents. Micro Caps (below A$150 million) Dalaroo Metals (ASX: DAL) rose 106.67% to 15.5 cents on turnover of A$3.56 million. The company reported the first two holes of its first drilling program at the Bondoukou project in Côte d'Ivoire. One hole returned 18 metres at 7.31 grams of gold per tonne from 63 metres down the hole. The company said true widths and continuity are not yet known, and the two holes test a small part of a seven-kilometre target. Dalaroo is still exploring. Lux Copper (ASX: LUX) fell 25.37% to 25 cents on the day it reported visible copper minerals in its first three holes at the Baird project in Alaska. The company said visual estimates are not a substitute for laboratory results, which it expects in November. It said drilling has paused for 2026 and it will pursue a US listing. BOA Resources (ASX: BOA) rose 22.58% to 19 cents on the day it reported copper assays from its Ricci Lee prospect. Kalamazoo Resources (ASX: KZR) rose 17.86% to 16.5 cents on the day it announced a A$10 million placement. Connexion Mobility (ASX: CXZ) rose 27.27% to 2.8 cents on turnover of A$0.17 million. EcoGraf (ASX: EGR) fell 20.69% to 23 cents on the day it completed a A$4.727 million capital raising. King River Resources (ASX: KRR) fell 16.18% to 5.7 cents with no ASX announcement since yesterday afternoon. Power Minerals (ASX: PNN) fell 10.00% to 13.5 cents. Commodities and Currency The Australian dollar was buying approximately 69.7 US cents at 4:40pm AEDT. It was at approximately 69.8 US cents at 8:45am. Gold for December was at about US$4,160 an ounce at 4:30pm AEDT, below Tuesday's close. Copper for December was at about US$6.63 a pound, also below Tuesday's close. Brent crude for December was at about US$101.58 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate for November was at about US$90.18, both above Tuesday's close. These are futures prices from Yahoo Finance. Iron ore was approximately US$91.10 a tonne, down 0.18%, according to ABC News at 10:36am AEDT. Samso Concluding Comments The ASX 200 moved 8 points on a day when the banks fell and health care rose. The largest moves were in single companies, and most came with an announcement. SKS Technologies fell on a founder share sale and Arena REIT rose on news about a tenant in administration. Dalaroo Metals has assays from two holes of a planned 102, and Lux Copper's laboratory results are due in November. Alpha HPA and Maas Group fell with no announcement, and Samso found no reason for either. General information only. This is not financial advice. Samso Market Update | Wednesday, 7 October 2026 | Pre-market 9:45am AEDT Futures point to a flat open on the ASX today. ASX 200 futures were flat at 8,765 points at 7:46am AEDT, according to ABC News. A futures contract is an agreement to buy or sell at a set price on a later date, and its price shows where traders expect the index to go. The S&P/ASX 200 closed on Tuesday at 8,735.7, up 49.3 points or 0.57%. The All Ordinaries, which tracks the 500 largest listed companies, rose 0.50% to 8,903.5. The S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries, an index of the companies ranked 101 to 300 by size, fell 0.27% to 3,305.2. The Australian dollar was buying approximately 69.8 US cents at 8:45am AEDT. Tuesday's edition is ASX today, Tuesday 6 October 2026. ASX today: Key Highlights ASX 200 futures were flat at 8,765 points at 7:46am AEDT (ABC News). The S&P 500 gained 0.58% on Tuesday to 7,818.93, a new record according to Yahoo Finance. The Russell 2000, an index of smaller US companies, fell 0.59% to 2,830.30. The other three main US indices rose. The yield on the US 10-year government bond closed at about 5.27%, down about 4 basis points on the day. Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 1.05% on Tuesday to 70,683.98. Copper for December rose 1.12% to US$6.660 a pound. Brent crude for December rose 0.83% to US$101.15 a barrel. Building approvals for August are due from the Australian Bureau of Statistics at 11:30am AEDT. Wall Street overnight Three of the four main US share indices rose on Tuesday and one fell. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.49% to 51,521.28. The S&P 500 gained 0.58% to 7,818.93, which Yahoo Finance reported as a new record. The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.45% to 27,599.79, above its close of 27,477.31 on Monday. ABC News reported that both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite reached record highs. The Russell 2000, an index of smaller US companies, fell 0.59% to 2,830.30. Yahoo Finance quoted Kyle Rodda, a senior financial market analyst with the broker Capital.com, on the reason. He said the rally was "tech-led once again". He said a marginal easing of uncertainty on interest rates and a slight fall in geopolitical risk, shown in a dip in crude prices, let investors focus on the earnings growth of artificial intelligence companies. ABC News reported that oil prices had stabilised at around US$100 a barrel. The US 10-year Treasury yield closed at about 5.27%, down about 4 basis points from 5.31% on Monday. A Treasury is a US government bond. A bond yield is the yearly return from buying a government bond at today's price, and when yields fall, bond prices rise. A basis point is one hundredth of a percentage point. Japan The Nikkei 225 closed on Tuesday at 70,683.98, up 737.12 points or 1.05%. It had risen 2.40% on Monday. Trading Economics described the close as a three-month high. It reported that Japanese shares followed Wall Street and that softer oil prices helped. The US dollar was buying approximately 158.08 yen at 8:45am AEDT. London and Europe London's FTSE 100 closed on Tuesday at 10,541.69, up 0.42%. Germany's DAX gained 0.77% to 25,449.19. France's CAC 40 gained 0.40% to 7,865.07. Currencies The Australian dollar was buying approximately 69.8 US cents at 8:45am AEDT. It was at approximately 69.7 US cents at the same time on Tuesday. The US dollar index, which measures the US dollar against six major currencies, closed on Tuesday at 101.86, down 0.31%. The US dollar was buying approximately 158.08 yen. Commodities Copper futures for December closed on Tuesday at US$6.660 a pound, up 1.12%. The contract month is the month a futures contract falls due. Gold for December rose 0.86% to US$4,192.70 an ounce. Silver for December rose 1.37% to US$61.70 an ounce. Brent crude for December closed at US$101.15 a barrel, up 0.83%. It had fallen 1.89% on Monday. West Texas Intermediate, the US oil benchmark, closed at US$89.91 a barrel for November delivery, up 0.54%. Iron ore was approximately US$91.10 a tonne, down 0.2%, according to ABC News. Today's diary 11:30am AEDT. Building Approvals, Australia, for August 2026, from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Samso Concluding Comments The S&P 500 set a record on Tuesday and the Russell 2000 fell 0.59%. Yahoo Finance quoted an analyst who put the rise down to technology shares, less uncertainty on interest rates and lower crude prices. The US 10-year Treasury yield closed at about 5.27%, down about 4 basis points. ASX 200 futures indicate a flat open, and building approvals for August are due at 11:30am AEDT. General information only. This is not financial advice.

A radio hoax fooled millions in 1938. Nearly ninety years later, the things being fooled aren't human — and the web is quietly feeding them poison. Adapted from a talk by Ariel Shulman, Chief Product Officer, Bright Data SuperAI 2026 · Marina Bay Sands, Singapore In 1938, Orson Welles stepped up to a radio microphone with no television, no internet, and no special effects beyond a few sound cues. He convinced millions of listeners that Martians were invading Earth. War of the Worlds became proof that human beings can be made to believe something untrue simply because it arrives through a trusted channel (Figure 2). Nearly ninety years later, that vulnerability has a new target. It is no longer only humans who can be fooled by convincing information delivered at the right moment. So can AI agents — and unlike the radio audience of 1938, an agent has no instinct that something feels wrong. That is the unsettling thread running through the story Ariel Shulman tells. Shulman is the chief product officer of Bright Data, a company that has spent fifteen years collecting public information from the open web at an industrial scale. He argues that a quiet war has broken out between two versions of the internet — the old web, built for people, and the new web, increasingly populated by software agents acting on our behalf. In that war, the old web has learned a new and dangerous trick. https://commons.wikimedia.org/ A Life Measured in Machines To see where the new web is going, Shulman likes to start with where he came from. In 1981, when he was ten years old, his father brought home a ZX81, a small British computer with exactly one kilobyte of memory (Figure 2). There were no disks; you saved your programs to cassette tape and could literally hear the data screech past as it loaded. He wrote little games on it, and his parents were sure they had a genius on their hands. Remarkably, you could do real things with a single kilobyte. Then the machines kept coming. The Commodore 64. The IBM PC, with its 640 kilobytes of memory that was supposedly going to be enough forever. In those years, there was barely any way to connect one computer to another — just hobbyists wiring their modems into bulletin board systems, one machine dialing directly into another. But the thirst to be connected was already there. Connection arrived with the internet. Tim Berners-Lee more or less invented the World Wide Web single-handedly in 1989 — the URL, HTML, and much of the scaffolding the rest of us now take for granted. Before browsers existed, people searched through text-only tools with names like Gopher and Archie. Then came Mosaic, the first program to put images and text on the same page. After a kilobyte of tape, it felt like magic. https://commons.wikimedia.org/ The Problem Was Never Connection. It Was Order. As the web swelled, the hard question stopped being how to reach the information and became how to organise it. The first serious attempt was Yahoo, where two Stanford students hand-sorted websites into categories — about 23,000 of them, a figure that sounds almost quaint today. Others followed, including Ask.com, a search engine that has since shut down (Figure 3). By 1998, the web had entered the age of the portal: a single homepage crammed with categories, links, and advertisements that tried to show you everything at once. They look faintly embarrassing now. VersionMuseum.com It is worth pausing on the era. The NASDAQ sat at around 1,043 before the dot-com crash of 2000 reset everyone's expectations. Microsoft's MSN portal shipped with Windows, so practically everyone ended up with it — galleries, endless ads, and Hotmail accounts that some readers will remember fondly. Only one company, in Shulman's telling, truly cracked the problem of organising the web: Google. Watching screenshots of its homepage flick past across roughly twenty-nine years is a compressed history of the modern internet: AdWords, Google Images, AdSense, Gmail, Maps, the YouTube acquisition, Translate, the first Android phone, Chrome, the late and unlamented Google+, Waze, the first Pixel. Artificial intelligence slipped in first behind the scenes, then a chatbot, then Bard, then its rename to Gemini. What began as a stripped-down search box now hides staggering machinery behind a minimalist face. The Data Empire - And Its Reckoning Ask a room how many people used Android, Maps, YouTube, or Gmail in the last day, and nearly every hand goes up. That ubiquity is the point. Google holds something close to all the data in the world: text from email and Drive, images from Photos, video and audio from YouTube, shopping signals from Chrome, local knowledge from Maps, behavioral data across devices, even health data from Android and scholarly work from Google Scholar. All of it feeds the models, Gemini among them — and the company has said it will offer AI agents for everyone. Figure 4: The NeXT machine at CERN that ran the world’s first web server. (Source Photo: Henry Mühlpfordt Wikimedia Commons — CC BY-SA 3.0) Such an accumulation could not go unexamined. In 2025, a major antitrust case against Google was decided. Shulman is careful to say he is not a lawyer and that what follows is his own reading of the roughly 146 pages of opinion he worked through. As he interprets it, Google must share some of its data — but only once, and it keeps the secret sauce: PageRank, the spam-detection algorithms, the parts that actually make it work. Competitors will have to build crawlers, crawl the web, and process the data themselves. They will have to invest and innovate to proceed. That, paraphrasing the judge, is the catch for everyone else. You cannot simply help yourself to the organised knowledge of the web. If you want it, you have to go out and collect it — which means building the crawling and processing stack yourself. The ruling did not hand competitors an easy shortcut. It handed them an instruction to do the hard work. The 8:47 Monday Message Here is where the abstract becomes uncomfortably concrete. Almost everyone now builds things; vibe-coding an agent over a weekend is ordinary. Picture a Monday at a hypothetical travel site that compares hotel prices, and a message lands from the CEO at 8:47 in the morning: “Hey guys, I just built an autonomous pricing agent with Claude this weekend, in two hours. It scrapes the competitors, optimises our price, and it works perfectly. Let’s launch it!” The CEO is not entirely wrong. The interface will work. The logic will work. On the developer's own machine, the whole thing will look flawless. The bad news is that the old web is not going to welcome an agent — least of all once it reaches production. Figure 5: Two hours of weekend coding looks flawless on your own machine. (Source: Photo: Markus Spiske / Wikimedia Commons — CC0). The reason is foundational. The web of 1989 was built for humans, and until very recently, almost everyone visiting it was human. As the population of agents and bots grows, the web is genuinely unsure how to treat them. It is the question at the heart of Blade Runner: faced with something that behaves like a person, how do you decide whether it is one — and what do you owe it if it isn't? Quantum Mechanics, Inverted Shulman has a favourite way to describe why agents that work in testing fall apart in the wild. In quantum mechanics, he says, things behave normally at human scale and turn strange only when you zoom down to the very small. Web data collection is the mirror image. Everything behaves perfectly on your laptop and turns strange only when you scale up into production — at which point things break in ways you often cannot even diagnose. The Web Learned to Lie Some of what breaks is innocent. Websites redesign themselves, change their layouts, restructure their data. Fine. But the web also fights back on purpose. It throttles agents to slow them down. It blocks them with CAPTCHAs. And then there is the genuinely clever part — the move Shulman calls the most interesting development in the field. For decades, a site that suspected a bot would try to stop it: throw up a CAPTCHA, deny the request, slam the door. The newer strategy does the opposite. The site quietly runs its detection algorithms, decides whether the visitor is human, and then chooses what to serve. A human gets the truth. A suspected bot gets disinformation — a honeypot. The aim is not to turn the agent away. The aim is to let it believe it succeeded and to feed it poison. The idea is not to stop you. It is to let you think you won — and feed you poison. In other words, the web learned how to lie. Two examples make it vivid. A ticketing site — call it Sunny Tickets — shows a normal visitor that seats are available. The same page, requested from a suspected agent, reports that nothing is for sale. Or take a hotel: a person sees a room at $199 and plenty of availability, while an agent sees the same room listed at $399. This is garbage in, garbage out with a malicious twist — the garbage is being manufactured specifically for the machine, and bad inputs become confidently wrong decisions. AI Agents Don’t Fail the Way People Do This is the danger Shulman wants builders to feel in their stomachs. A human pricing analyst who sees a hotel room jump from $199 to $399 pauses. Something looks off; they double-check. That hesitation — the intuition that a number is wrong — is a safety feature humans get for free. An agent has no such instinct. It records “received hotel price: $399,” updates five thousand entries, fires off five thousand emails notifying customers of the change, and moves on, perfectly satisfied. By the time anyone notices, the damage is done and distributed. Poisoned data does not announce itself; it simply propagates at machine speed, which is exactly what makes it so hard to catch. Even True Data Goes Stale Suppose you clear every hurdle and obtain genuine, untampered data. You still face the clock. Web data has a shelf life, and different kinds of information rot at very different rates. Because Bright Data observes tens of millions of URLs continuously, Shulman says, it can watch that decay happen across markets. Social posts, e-commerce prices, and stock availability are good for roughly a day before they mislead more than they inform. News holds for a day or two. Financial information stays useful for perhaps five to seven days. General content — blogs, evergreen pages — can stay relevant for a long time. The lesson is that freshness is not a luxury; stale data quietly corrodes the experience. Users feel it immediately. A shopping agent that quotes $29.99 and then rings up $49.99 at checkout doesn't just annoy — it destroys trust. So does an item shown in stock that isn't, or a map confidently sending someone to a restaurant that closed an hour ago. Whether the data was poisoned or simply old, the customer's experience is the same: the system lied to them. So What Is a Builder Supposed to Do? Shulman's answer is, unsurprisingly, the business his company is in — but the logic stands on its own. If the new web is a crowd of agents, and the old web responds with blocks and lies, then the missing layer is trustworthy web-data infrastructure: a way to obtain data that is reliable, consistent, fresh, and scalable, delivered in whatever shape an application needs — HTML, JSON, markdown, CSV — without each developer having to win the arms race alone. It is also why a company like his keeps colliding with the law. Bright Data has argued, in court, for the right to collect public web data — by which Shulman means anything a person could reach through an ordinary browser, with no login, no password, and no paywall. The company has been sued, including by Meta and by Elon Musk, and says it prevailed in federal court in California in those cases — rulings it spent heavily to win and that are now cited elsewhere. Its claimed scale is the kind of number that resists intuition: more than 50 billion pages scraped a day, billions parsed and archived, a network of well over a hundred million IP addresses, around 2.5 petabytes pulled in every twenty-four hours. Three Thousand Times Around the Earth Humans are famously bad at feeling the weight of large numbers, so Shulman ends where he began — with the ZX81 and its single kilobyte. He asked ChatGPT to imagine converting a single day's haul, 2.5 petabytes, into physical kilobytes, each one a five-centimetre strip of that old cassette tape, laid end to end. The answer stretches almost to the Sun — enough tape to wrap around the Earth roughly 3,120 times. That is one day. Figure 5: 2.5 petabytes a day — a single day’s tape would wrap the Earth some 3,120 times. Image: NASA, “Blue Marble” - public domain. A modern laptop, he notes, is something like sixteen million times more capable than his childhood machine in memory and processing, and it has the whole of the world's information within reach. When he received that ZX81, he assumed the great challenge of the future would be raw computing power. He was wrong. Computing got cheap almost embarrassingly fast. The internet then gave us more information than we knew what to do with. Now a third era has begun, and its defining problem is neither power nor abundance but trust. The agents are clever and getting cleverer. The web has learned to lie to them. Somewhere between those two facts sits the real work of the next decade: making sure that the software now acting on our behalf is fed something true — because, unlike Orson Welles's listeners in 1938, an agent will never sense that the broadcast was a hoax. It will simply believe, act, and send the five thousand emails. Cover photo: Data center roof, Rsparks3. CC0, via Wikimedia Commons (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Data_center_roof.jpg) The Samso Way - Seek the Research Here at Samso, we pride ourselves on delivering content for investors that is independent and informed by over three decades of experience in the industry. Our content is well-researched and is only created if we see merit in discussing the company's story. Our mission is simple: cut through the noise and spotlight what matters — genuine stories, grounded insights, and real opportunity. Our content is well-researched and is only created if the team sees merit in discussing the company or concept. 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Storm Exploration is about to put a drill into five kilometres of ground that has never been tested. The target is a conductivity anomaly fifty to a hundred metres wide, close to vertical, starting within a hundred metres of surface. Inco drilled four short holes near it in 1969, logged massive sulphides, and never assayed the core. Eric Sprott has just put two million dollars in at forty cents to pay for the rig. Most Australian investors will never look at a company on the TSX Venture Exchange. The reporting code is different, the market trades overnight, and there is no shortage of explorers on the ASX. Storm Exploration Inc (TSX-V: STRM) is worth the detour because of what it is about to do. In the third quarter of this year it will drill up to three thousand metres into a target that nobody has ever tested [R2] , on ground that has been walked over for a hundred and twenty years [R6] . The target is five kilometres long [R4] . Samso Insights Investor Awareness Explorers Samso Market Strategy A note on the vocabulary and the sources. Technical and mining terms are explained in plain English where they first appear, and all of them are collected in one box at the back. Every source carries an identifier, [R1] to [R14], and that identifier appears in the body text at the point the source is used, so any figure can be traced to where it came from. What is in this article 1.00 The target. Five kilometres of conductor, and nobody has drilled it 2.00 What a VMS deposit is, and why one is rarely one. A deposit that keeps on giving 3.00 The ground. The property, and the belt it lies in 4.00 What Inco found in 1969. Massive sulphides, logged and never assayed 5.00 What the 2026 field programme added. What the field programme found 6.00 The drill. Three thousand metres, and what each outcome would mean 7.00 Eric Sprott. Two million dollars at forty cents 8.00 The register and the treasury. Why twenty eight million shares looks strange from Australia 9.00 What could go wrong. The arithmetic behind exploration 10.00 References and sources. Where every figure in this article comes from 1.00 — THE TARGET Five kilometres of conductor, and nobody has drilled it An electromagnetic survey works by pushing a current into the ground and measuring what comes back. Rock is mostly a poor conductor. Metal sulphides are good ones. So a strong return over a large area says there is something down there that conducts electricity far better than the rock around it. Storm has one of those anomalies at Gold Standard. Airborne VTEM flown in 2022 picked up a conductive corridor at Gold Standard [R2] . The corporate presentation dates the identification of the anomaly to 2023 [R14] . Ground work this year refined it either way, and the modelled shape is now specific enough to drill [R4] [R5] . Table 01 is worth reading as a whole. The significance is in the combination rather than any single line. Five kilometres of strike is a large search space. Fifty to a hundred metres of width is a body with real volume, not a thin seam. A vertical orientation means a hole drilled at an angle cuts across it rather than sliding down it. And a top within a hundred metres of surface means the first holes are cheap. Plate 01 shows the shape of it. The last row of Table 01 is a very important observation. It is a contact between a magnetic unit and a non-magnetic unit and is what we call a geological boundary. Massive sulphide bodies form at boundaries, because that is where the chemistry changes. The conductor does not lie in the middle of a uniform rock package. It lies on a contact. 2.00 — WHAT A VMS DEPOSIT IS, AND WHY ONE IS RARELY ONE A deposit that keeps on giving VMS stands for volcanogenic massive sulphide. Each of the three words means something specific. Volcanogenic means it was made by volcanic activity. Massive is a geological word rather than a description of size. It means the rock is more than forty percent sulphide minerals, so it is dominantly metal-bearing rather than ordinary rock with metal scattered through it [R7] . Sulphide is the mineral family that carries copper, zinc, lead and silver, most usefully chalcopyrite for copper, sphalerite for zinc and galena for lead. How one forms The process starts on a volcanic sea floor. Cold sea water works its way down through cracks in the rock, gets heated by the magma below, and strips metal out of the rock as it goes. The hot metal-loaded fluid then rises back up and vents onto the sea floor, where it hits cold water and dumps its load almost instantly. The result is a lens of massive sulphide on the sea floor, with a feeder zone of veins and veinlets underneath marking the path the fluid took up. A halo of chemically altered rock surrounds both [R7] . The zoning, and why it changes how you read the first assays Fig 01 shows the anatomy, and the metal zoning drawn on it is the part to hold on to. The metals do not mix evenly. They sort themselves out by temperature as the fluid cools, which produces a consistent pattern. Iron and copper concentrate at the base of the lens and in the feeder zone. Zinc, lead, silver and barium concentrate towards the top and the margins [R7] . That has a direct consequence for anyone reading the first drill results out of Gold Standard. A hole that returns zinc and silver but little copper has not necessarily found a poor deposit. It may have cut the top of a lens with the copper below it. The reverse is also true. Copper without zinc may mean a hole is in the feeder zone rather than the lens. The first assays will tell a reader where in the system the hole landed. They will not, on their own, tell a reader how good the system is. Why VMS deposits come in clusters A hydrothermal vent field on the sea floor is not a single chimney. Hydrothermal just means driven by hot water. It is a field of vents, feeding off the same heat source along the same layer of rock. So VMS deposits occur in clusters, not in isolation. Geologists talk about VMS camps rather than VMS deposits, and the camp is what has value. The numbers behind that are not a matter of opinion. The Bathurst Mining Camp in New Brunswick holds forty five known massive sulphide deposits [R9] . The USGS world database holds one thousand and ninety of them [R8] . Plate 02 shows the Bathurst camp on a map. The sixteen deposits marked are the ones that were mined or developed, and they follow the same folded belt of volcanic rock. Three Australian operations make the point better than any statistic. Golden Grove, Western Australia. Gossan Hill was found in 1971. Scuddles was found in 1979, eight years later, in the same camp. More than fifty years after the first discovery the operation is still producing. In 2023 it delivered 18,100 tonnes of copper, 51,500 tonnes of zinc, 775,000 ounces of silver, 14,000 ounces of gold and 1,170 tonnes of lead [R10] . Rosebery, Tasmania. The Rosebery mill started in February 1936. MMG marked eighty years of continuous operation in February 2016, and the mine still produces zinc, lead and copper concentrates and gold dore [R11] . Ninety years out of one VMS system. DeGrussa, Western Australia. This is the one most Australian retail investors will know. Sandfire Resources hit high grade copper and gold in 2009, and commercial production followed in 2012. The nearby Monty deposit came later, and Sandfire took it into a joint venture with Talisman Mining in 2016 [R12] . DeGrussa moved into closure in the early 2020s, but the sequence is the point. A junior explorer drilled into a VMS system and it changed the company completely. Canada has the longest-running examples of the same thing. Plate 03 reproduces the company's summary of two of them. The Horne mine at Rouyn-Noranda in Quebec ran from 1927 to 1989 and produced 53.7 million tonnes of ore at 2.22 percent copper, 6.1 grams a tonne of gold and 13 grams a tonne of silver. Kidd Creek at Timmins in Ontario has been operating since 1966 and had produced 140 million tonnes of ore as at 2016, at 2.29 percent copper, 6.15 percent zinc and 86.2 grams a tonne of silver [R14] . Sixty years of production out of one system, and still going. 3.00 — THE GROUND The property, and the belt it lies in Gold Standard lies about 65 kilometres north of Fort Frances in north-western Ontario, inside the traditional territories of the Naicatchewenin and Nigigoonsiminikaaning First Nations. The company's project page gives the holding as 284 mineral claims over 6,016 hectares [R1] . The corporate presentation gives it as 7,636 hectares and marks a block of recently acquired ground on the property map [R14] . Both are quoted here as published. Either way it is reachable by forestry road all year. The property falls within the Manitou-Stormy Lakes greenstone belt, an Archean belt roughly 80 kilometres long and 20 wide. Archean means the rock is older than about 2.5 billion years, and that age band covers a large number of the world's richest mineral belts. A greenstone belt is old volcanic and sedimentary rock, deformed and altered, and greenstone belts are where a large share of the world's gold and base metal deposits are found. The Gold Standard ground is underlain by intermediate to mafic volcanic flows and pyroclastic rocks of the Grant Lake group [R1] . Two of those terms are worth unpacking. Mafic means iron and magnesium rich, and it is the rock type that hosts a good many VMS systems. Intermediate is one step up from mafic on the same scale, carrying more silica. Pyroclastic rock is made of fragments thrown out by an eruption rather than lava that flowed. Plate 04 puts the property in its regional setting. The gold showings on top Separately from the conductor, the property carries three documented high grade gold showings. GS-HW271, GS-G149 and Sairy Gamp were all mine shafts worked between 1900 and 1903. Historical grades are reported up to 55.9 grams a tonne of gold [R1] . A 2022 rock sample programme at the HW-271 showing returned 166 grams a tonne of gold, 197 grams a tonne of silver and 1.47 percent copper [R5] . Other samples in the same programme returned 88.6, 83.4 and 77.6 grams a tonne of gold [R1] . Two framings in the company's material The company's Gold Standard project page presents the property as a gold project. It cites Rainy River and Hammond Reef, both large Ontario gold deposits, as broadly similar, and it lists a property-wide airborne electromagnetic survey as the next step [R1] . The 2026 announcements present a VMS target, with the airborne VTEM already flown in 2022 [R4] [R5] . Both are the company's published material. This article quotes both as they stand and names the source of each. Resolving the difference belongs to the company, and a reader is better served knowing it exists. A note on the two reporting codes Storm reports under NI 43-101, the Canadian code. An Australian reader is used to JORC 2012. Both require a qualified or competent person to sign off on any statement of resources or reserves, and both bar a company from publishing an economic estimate without one. Neither code applies to what Storm is doing at Gold Standard right now, because there is no resource to report and the drilling has not started. The practical difference for an Australian reader is elsewhere. On the ASX, Appendix 5B item 8.7 makes a company state, every quarter, how many quarters of funding it has at its current burn rate. There is no direct equivalent on the TSX Venture Exchange, so a Canadian junior's runway has to be worked out from the financial statements rather than read off a line. 4.00 — WHAT INCO FOUND IN 1969 Massive sulphides, logged and never assayed The International Nickel Company of Canada drilled four exploratory holes on this ground around 1969 to 1971, totalling roughly 180 metres [R1] . The corporate presentation is specific about them. All four were under 50 metres in length, all four intersected sulphide mineralisation, all four revealed copper and zinc mineralisation, and none of them was assayed [R14] . The core logs record disseminated and semi-massive pyrite, pyrrhotite, chalcopyrite and sphalerite mineralisation [R4] . Disseminated means the sulphide is scattered through the rock as separate grains. Semi-massive is the step between that and the massive sulphide described in section 2.00. One interval is described as 21 metres of alternating massive sulphides. Another is 19 metres of massive pyrite [R2] . Three things follow from the Inco work. The metals are physically present. Chalcopyrite is a copper mineral. Sphalerite is a zinc mineral. Nobody has to argue about whether the system can carry base metals, because Inco's core says it does. No assays were ever completed. Inco logged what it saw and never put a number on it [R5] . So there is no grade for any of it. Fifty five years later the strongest direct evidence for mineralisation on this property is a description rather than a measurement. None of the four holes intersected the conductor. This is the part that repays a close look at Plate 01. Three of the four were collared directly over the mapped conductor in plan view, and the fourth at its eastern end. They were in the right place. The company states plainly that none of them intersected it [R4] . Read that against the two other published facts, that every hole was under 50 metres [R14] and that the top of the modelled conductor is within 100 metres of surface [R5] , and the holes stopped above the target. What else the record shows Ontario's Mineral Deposit Inventory keeps a public record for this ground. It lists a shaft sunk to 28.9 metres by the Gold Standard Mining Company in 1902 and 1903, a government visit in 1934, an assay of 1.8 ounces of gold a ton taken off the mine dump in 1976, which is about 62 grams a tonne, a grab sample by the Ontario Geological Survey in 1988 returning 1.37 ounces of gold a ton, about 47 grams a tonne, with 1.52 percent copper, airborne surveys and mapping by Canhorn Mining in 1989, mapping and sampling by Temex Resources in 2004, a magnetic survey by Neilson Lake Exploration in 2011, and prospecting in 2014 that returned 200 grams a tonne of gold [R6] . That is a long list of parties who saw encouraging numbers on this ground. None of them drilled the conductor, because until the 2022 VTEM survey nobody had defined it. 5.00 — WHAT THE 2026 FIELD PROGRAMME ADDED What the field programme found Storm ran a two phase programme this year to work out whether the conductor was worth drilling [R5] . Phase one was ground work. Very low frequency electromagnetic surveying, ten line kilometres at four separate locations, meaning ten kilometres of survey line walked in total, with the lines a hundred metres apart and readings taken every twenty metres. A LiDAR survey for detailed topography. Geological mapping and rock sampling over two to three weeks. Soil sampling [R4] [R5] . Phase two is the drill. The ground work did two useful things. It confirmed the airborne anomaly with an independent method, which matters because a single survey type can mislead. And it produced the modelled geometry in section 1.00, which is what makes the target drillable rather than merely interesting. It also turned up sulphide mineralisation at surface in three separate locations, including pyrite, pyrrhotite and chalcopyrite [R4] . The July release states the argument for drilling in one sentence [R4] . There is sulphide at surface. There is not enough of it to account for what the instruments are reading. Something else is generating that response, and it is not visible from the top. 6.00 — THE DRILL Three thousand metres, and what each outcome would mean A drill permit was issued on 19 August 2026. It runs for three years and covers the entire five kilometre length of the VMS target [R2] . The programme is up to 3,000 metres of core drilling, scheduled for the third quarter of 2026 [R2] [R5] . Bruce Counts, President and Chief Executive, on the permit [R2] . Table 02 sets out the programme as announced. Three years of permit over the whole five kilometres changes what a first miss costs. Storm does not have to get it right first time. If the first holes miss, the company can move along strike and try again without going back to the regulator. A theoretical model of where the first hole goes The company has not published where it intends to collar. What follows is a theoretical model built from the geophysics it has released, and it is offered as that and nothing more. The modelling describes the conductor as thickest and strongest in the hinge zone [R4] . A hinge zone is where folded rock turns, and it is a common place for sulphide to thicken because the fold has given it somewhere to accumulate. On a theoretical basis, the strongest and thickest part of a conductive body is where a first hole has the best chance of an intersection, and it is where the geophysics carries the least ambiguity. So a reader watching for the first collar location has a theoretical expectation to measure the announcement against. If the first hole goes into the hinge zone, the company is testing its strongest signal. If it goes elsewhere, there will be a geological reason and that reason will be worth reading. This is a model. It is not a company statement and it is not a prediction of what Storm will do. How to read the results when they come The metal zoning in section 2.00 is the key to this. Here is what the different outcomes would mean, set out before anyone is emotionally invested in a headline. Massive sulphide with copper. The base of a lens, or the feeder zone. The best single outcome from a first hole, because copper carries the value in most mafic-hosted systems. Massive sulphide with zinc and silver and little copper. The top or the margin of a lens. Not a disappointment. It means the copper zone should be deeper, and it gives the geologists a direction. Massive sulphide that is mostly pyrite and pyrrhotite. A real intersection with little economic metal. Section 9.00 deals with this outcome, and it is the one to understand before it happens rather than after. Nothing at the modelled depth. The model was wrong, or the hole was in the wrong place along five kilometres of strike. With three years of permit, this is a setback and not an ending. 7.00 — ERIC SPROTT Two million dollars at forty cents On 26 August 2026 Storm announced a non-brokered private placement of C$2,000,000, being 5,000,000 units at C$0.40. Non-brokered means no broker was paid to arrange it. Each unit is one common share plus half a share purchase warrant, with the warrant exercisable at C$0.55 for two years. The investor is Eric Sprott, through 2176423 Ontario Ltd [R3] . The placement is subject to TSX Venture Exchange approval, carries no finder's fees, and has a hold period of four months and one day [R3] . On closing he becomes the largest shareholder, holding more than ten percent, which makes him an insider. A 19.99 percent control blocker keeps him below twenty percent counting the shares plus his warrants, which is what partially diluted means [R3] . The proceeds are earmarked for exploration drilling at Gold Standard, plus general corporate and working capital [R3] . 8.00 — THE REGISTER AND THE TREASURY Why twenty eight million shares looks strange from Australia Storm carried about 28 million shares on issue before the placement [R14] . The placement adds 5 million, taking the count to roughly 33 million, with a further 2.5 million warrants at 55 cents outstanding [R3] . That number does not look like anything on the ASX. Fig 02 sets out what the placement does to the count. A typical ASX junior explorer of comparable size carries hundreds of millions of shares, and often more than a billion. The difference is not accounting. It is a difference in how the two markets have historically raised money. Australian juniors have tended to issue large volumes of cheap paper. Canadian juniors have tended to consolidate and issue less. What a tight register actually does It changes the arithmetic of a discovery, in both directions. On 33 million shares, a re-rate, meaning the market repricing the company upward, does not have to fight through a large share count to show up in the price. The same dollar value of new market capitalisation is spread across far fewer shares. The same arithmetic runs the other way on dilution. Every raise on a small register is proportionally larger. The Sprott placement alone is roughly 15 percent of the enlarged capital. A company with 500 million shares issuing the same dollar amount would barely register it. A tight register is leverage. Leverage works in both directions, and a reader who wants the upside is also accepting the downside. 9.00 — WHAT COULD GO WRONG The arithmetic behind exploration Everything above is the case for the drill. This section sets out the other side of it. One more thing the numbers do not show There is a reason the base rate feels wrong to a retail investor, and it is worth naming. Companies announce discoveries. They rarely announce the absence of one. A conductor drilled and found to be barren pyrite does not get a press release with a headline on it. It gets a line in a quarterly and a change of focus. So a reader following exploration news sees a continuous stream of encouraging results and almost never sees the ones that ended quietly. The successes are visible and the failures are not. Any sense of the odds built from reading announcements will be too optimistic. 10.00 — REFERENCES AND SOURCES Where every figure in this article comes from [R1] Storm Exploration Inc, Gold Standard project page, stormex.ca, accessed 31 August 2026. [R2] Storm Exploration Inc, "Drill Permit Received for Storm Exploration's Gold Standard Project", 19 August 2026. [R3] Storm Exploration Inc, "Eric Sprott Invests $2 Million in Storm Exploration", 26 August 2026. [R4] Storm Exploration Inc, "Storm Exploration Defines VMS Target at Gold Standard", 8 July 2026. [R5] Storm Exploration Inc, "Storm Exploration Begins Field Program on VMS Target at Gold Standard", 27 May 2026. [R6] Ontario Ministry of Mines, Mineral Deposit Inventory record MDI52F03NE00005, Gold Standard Hw 271. [R7] Shanks, W C P III, and Koski, R A, and others, "Volcanogenic Massive Sulfide Occurrence Model", United States Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2010-5070-C, 2012. [R8] Mosier, D L, and Berger, V I, and Singer, D A, "Volcanogenic Massive Sulfide Deposits of the World, Database and Grade and Tonnage Models", United States Geological Survey Open-File Report 2009-1034, 2009. [R9] McCutcheon, S R, and Walker, J A, "Great Mining Camps of Canada 8. The Bathurst Mining Camp, New Brunswick, Part 2, Mining History and Contributions to Society", Geoscience Canada volume 47 number 3, 2020, pages 143 to 166. [R10] Golden Grove mine, reported 2023 production, 29Metals Limited. [R11] MMG Limited, "MMG Rosebery commemorates 80 years of continuous operations", 9 February 2016, and MMG Rosebery operations page. [R12] Sandfire Resources, DeGrussa and Monty operations history. [R13] Schodde, R, "Trends in Gold Exploration, with a special focus on quantifying discovery performance", MinEx Consulting, presentation to the Prospectors and Developers Association of Canada, 13 May 2021. [R14] Storm Exploration Inc, Corporate Presentation, third quarter 2026. Cover photo: Canadian Shield, Smcafirst at English Wikipedia. Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Canadian_Shield.jpg). Reproduced photograph, shown faded under a navy overlay on the article thumbnail. The Samso Way – Seek the Research Here at Samso, we pride ourselves on delivering content for investors that is independent and informed by over three decades of experience in the industry. Our content is well-researched and is only created if I see merit in discussing the company's story. Our mission is simple. Cut through the noise and spotlight what matters. Genuine stories, grounded insights, and real opportunity. Investors can explore our four core platforms: Coffee with Samso Samso Insights Samso News Samso Research There may be numerous paths to success in investing, but the common thread among successful individuals is that they remain committed to making informed decisions. Equip yourself with the right knowledge and tools, and you will be well on your way to achieving your financial goals. Most importantly, investors need to be absolutely diligent in understanding their own risk-reward tolerance and capabilities. Never bite off more than you can chew. As they say, Rome wasn't built in a day, and the Great Wall stood because it took centuries to complete. The Samso Philosophy: Stay curious. Stay sharp. And remember, digging deeper always uncovers the real value. In Life, there is no such thing as a Free Lunch. Never bite off more than you can chew is my parting comment. Happy Investing, and the only four-letter word you need to know is DYOR. To support our independent work, please head over to our Support Page and give us a helping hand in any of the ways listed. This is a new initiative for the Samso Platform, and it was always the concept of Samso when we started this journey in 2018. Disclaimer This article is general information only. It is not financial product advice and it does not take into account any reader's objectives, financial situation or needs. It contains no price targets, no valuations and no recommendation to buy, hold or sell any security. Companies named in this article are used as historical illustrations of events that have already occurred and no view is expressed on their current merits. Readers should consider obtaining advice from a licensed financial adviser and should conduct their own research before making any investment decision. Samso and its associates may hold interests in companies mentioned. Read full Disclaimer. About Samso Samso is a trusted platform that equips dedicated investors with up-to-date industry knowledge and insights from top CEOs and thought leaders. By staying informed on business advancements and market trends, investors can enhance their financial decisions through a combination of expert guidance and their own research. 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Investing wisely in today's economy can be challenging. With so many options and fluctuating markets, knowing where to put your money is crucial. This guide will help you identify promising investments that align with current economic trends and your financial goals. By understanding key factors and strategies, you can make informed decisions that maximize your returns and minimize risks. Understanding Promising Investments in the Current Market Promising investments are those that offer potential for growth, income, or capital preservation in the context of today's economic environment. To identify these, you need to consider several factors: Economic indicators: Look at GDP growth, unemployment rates, inflation, and interest rates. These give clues about the overall health of the economy. Industry trends: Some sectors perform better during certain economic cycles. For example, technology and healthcare often show resilience. Company fundamentals: Analyze financial statements, management quality, and competitive advantages. Market sentiment: Investor confidence and market momentum can influence short-term performance. For example, renewable energy companies have gained traction due to global shifts toward sustainability. Similarly, technology firms focusing on cloud computing and artificial intelligence are expanding rapidly. Corporate investment building To stay ahead, keep an eye on emerging sectors and innovations. Diversifying your portfolio across different asset classes and industries can also reduce risk. Key Strategies to Spot Promising Investments Identifying promising investments requires a mix of research, analysis, and practical steps. Here are some strategies to help you: Conduct thorough research Use reliable sources such as financial news, company reports, and expert analyses. Websites like investment opportunities provide valuable insights into current market trends. Evaluate risk versus reward Every investment carries risk. Assess your risk tolerance and compare it with the potential returns. High returns often come with higher risks. Look for consistent performance Companies or assets with steady growth and stable earnings are generally safer bets. Consider dividend-paying stocks These provide regular income and can be a sign of financial health. Monitor market cycles Timing can impact investment success. Buying during market dips can increase potential gains. Use technical and fundamental analysis Technical analysis looks at price trends and patterns, while fundamental analysis focuses on financial health and business prospects. For instance, investing in blue-chip stocks with a history of dividend payments can provide both growth and income. Alternatively, exploring real estate investment trusts (REITs) might offer exposure to property markets without direct ownership. Financial analysis on laptop How much money do I need to invest to make $3,000 a month? Generating a steady income of $3,000 per month from investments depends on the type of investment and its yield. Here’s a simple way to estimate the required capital: Determine the expected annual return: For example, if you expect a 6% annual return, that’s 0.06. Calculate the annual income needed: $3,000 per month equals $36,000 per year. Divide the annual income by the return rate: $36,000 ÷ 0.06 = $600,000. This means you would need to invest approximately $600,000 at a 6% return to generate $3,000 monthly. Keep in mind: Returns vary by investment type. Bonds might offer 3-4%, stocks 7-10%, and property yields differ by location. Consider taxes and fees, which reduce net income. Diversify to balance risk and income stability. For example, a mix of dividend stocks, bonds, and rental properties can help achieve this goal while managing risk. Australian currency representing investment capital Practical Tips for Evaluating Investment Opportunities When assessing any investment, apply these practical tips: Check liquidity: How easily can you sell the investment if needed? Understand the business model: Know how the company or asset generates income. Review historical performance: Past results are not guarantees but provide context. Assess management quality: Strong leadership often correlates with better outcomes. Consider macroeconomic factors: Interest rates, inflation, and geopolitical events can impact returns. Beware of scams: If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is. For example, before investing in a startup, research its market potential, competitive landscape, and leadership team. For property, evaluate location, rental demand, and maintenance costs. Staying Updated and Adapting Your Investment Approach The economy and markets are dynamic. Staying informed and flexible is key to long-term success. Here’s how to keep your investment strategy relevant: Regularly review your portfolio: Adjust based on performance and changing goals. Follow economic news and reports: This helps anticipate market shifts. Attend webinars and read expert analyses: Continuous learning sharpens your decision-making. Use technology tools: Investment apps and platforms offer real-time data and alerts. Network with other investors: Sharing insights can reveal new opportunities. By adapting to new information and trends, you can capitalize on emerging promising investments and protect your assets during downturns. Identifying promising investments requires a blend of knowledge, analysis, and vigilance. By understanding market conditions, applying sound strategies, and staying informed, you can navigate today’s economy with confidence and build a portfolio that supports your financial goals. Cover photo: Blur-chart-data-69760, Negative Space. CC0, via Wikimedia Commons (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Blur-chart-data-69760.jpg). Reproduced photograph, shown faded under a navy overlay on the article thumbnail. The Samso Way – Seek the Research In the Samso way, seeking the research means looking beyond the headlines to understand the data, the geology, the financial news, the scientific analysis, the medical results, the proving of artificial intelligence, and the strategy driving a project. It’s about analysing the details — from start to commercial realisation — to identify genuine potential and avoid the noise. In understanding the art of investing, knowledge is the real commodity, and informed analysis is the edge. Our mission is simple: cut through the noise and spotlight what matters—genuine stories, grounded insights, and real opportunity. Our content is well-researched and is only created if the team sees a merit in discussing the company or concept. Investors can explore our three core platforms: Coffee with Samso Samso Insights Samso News There may be numerous paths to success in investing, but the common thread among successful individuals is that they remain committed to making informed decisions. Equip yourself with the right knowledge and tools, and you will be well on your way to achieving your financial goals. Most importantly, investors need to be absolutely diligent in understanding their own risk-reward tolerance and capabilities. Never bite off more than you can chew. As they say, Rome wasn’t built in a day, and the Great Wall stood because it took centuries to complete. The Samso Philosophy: Stay curious. Stay sharp. And remember—digging deeper always uncovers the real value. In Life, there is no such thing as a Free Lunch. Happy Investing, and the only four-letter word you need to know is DYOR. To support our independent nature of our work, please head over to our Support Page and give us a helping hand in any of the ways listed. This is a new initiate for the Samso Platform, and it was always the concept of Samso when we started this journey in 2018. Disclaimer The information or opinions provided herein do not constitute investment advice, an offer or solicitation to subscribe for, purchase or sell the investment product(s) mentioned herein. It does not take into consideration, nor have any regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation, risk profile, tax position and particular, or unique needs and constraints. Read full Disclaimer. Share to Grow: Your Bonus Samso has just released an eBook: How to Add Value to your Share Portfolio A lesson on geological models sought by mining companies that gives insight and an understanding of which portfolios are better - and potentially more lucrative – investments. Click here to download this eBook. 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Innovaero Technologies Limited is preparing to list on the ASX after a A$40 million IPO that places a family of loitering munitions at the centre of the investment proposition. Samso News Defence and Aerospace IPO Review ASX Listings The Perth-based aerospace and defence technology company is scheduled for ASX listing on 22 September 2026 through the issue of 80 million shares at A$0.50 per share. The headline attraction is the company's OWL family of uncrewed defence systems, led by the OWL-B medium-range precision loitering munition being developed with the Commonwealth Department of Defence under the Mission Talon-Strike Contract. But describing Innovaero simply as a "drone company" understates what is coming to market. The business has roots stretching back to 2006 and combines uncrewed systems development with aviation engineering, certification, composite manufacturing and maintenance, repair and overhaul. There is therefore an existing aerospace infrastructure beneath the newer defence technology opportunity. On admission, the company will have an indicative market capitalisation of approximately A$158.3 million and an enterprise value of approximately A$109.4 million. THE SOURCE DOCUMENT This piece is built on the Innovaero Technologies Limited Replacement Prospectus dated 18 August 2026, which replaced the original prospectus of 11 August 2026, together with the ASX's listing information for the float. The Capital Raising Offer opened on 19 August 2026 and closed on 28 August 2026, so this is a review ahead of quotation rather than an open offer. Quotation is expected on 18 September 2026. The ASX upcoming floats and listings page carries the listing details. A NOTE ON THE VOCABULARY Defence and aerospace carry their own shorthand. Loitering munition, one-way effector, TRL, MRO and the accounting terms used further down are all explained in plain English in the vocabulary box at the back of this piece. IPO Snapshot - Innovaero Technologies IPO Innovaero Technologies Particulars Proposed ASX Code INN IPO Price A$0.50 per share New Shares 80 million Capital Raising A$40 million Shares on Admission 316.57 million Indicative Market Capitalisation A$158.28 million Indicative Enterprise Value A$109.41 million Pro Forma Cash A$48.88 million Expected ASX Listing 22 September 2026 Joint Lead Managers Euroz Hartleys and Canaccord Genuity TABLE 01 Innovaero Technologies IPO snapshot, offer terms and indicative capital structure. Offer particulars as set out in the Replacement Prospectus dated 18 August 2026 and the ASX listing information for the float. The offer is not underwritten, according to the ASX's current listing information (TABLE 01). What stands out immediately is the amount being raised relative to the company's size. This is not a small A$5 million technology IPO designed merely to obtain a listing. Innovaero intends to deploy most of the A$40 million directly into product development and manufacturing infrastructure. What Does Innovaero Actually Do? Innovaero has two operating pillars. The first is Advanced Uncrewed Systems and Aerospace Technology, incorporating the development and commercialisation of uncrewed aerial systems, loitering munitions, one-way effectors and associated mission systems. The second is Crewed Aircraft Design, Engineering, Manufacturing and Maintenance, including aircraft engineering, certification, advanced composite manufacturing and MRO services. Innovaero's aviation activities have already required the company to develop capabilities around engineering discipline, CASA approvals, manufacturing, structural repair and certification. The prospectus specifically explains that these capabilities support the airworthiness, integration and certification pathway for its uncrewed systems. That gives the story more substance than simply designing an aircraft and hoping somebody buys it (FIGURE 01). FIGURE 01 OWL B Uncrewed defence system. Reproduced from the Innovaero Technologies Replacement Prospectus dated 18 August 2026, with attribution. The OWL Family FIGURE 02 The OWL family of systems, their intended roles and development status. Reproduced from the Innovaero Technologies Replacement Prospectus dated 18 August 2026, with attribution. OWL stands for One-Way-Loitering, and the family uses a common vehicle-system architecture incorporating autopilot, mission control, propulsion control, communications management, sensor processing and payload management. The idea is that this common architecture can then be adapted into different airframes and propulsion configurations for different missions (FIGURE 02). Perhaps the most tangible technical figure in the prospectus comes from OWL-X. Prototype testing during 2025 achieved an altitude above 20,000 feet and speeds of up to 400 knots, or approximately 740 km/h. The key product, however, remains OWL-B. OWL-B and Mission Talon-Strike Innovaero began developing OWL-B for the Australian Defence Force in 2022. In September 2025, the company was awarded the Mission Talon-Strike development contract through the Department of Defence. The contract was originally valued at A$20.8 million excluding GST and was subsequently increased to A$24.2 million excluding GST. The program is intended to refine OWL-B into its final configuration for operational employment and conduct testing and evaluation against Defence requirements (FIGURE 03). Importantly, this is not yet a production contract. That is a distinction investors need to keep firmly in mind. The existing contract is designed to bring OWL-B through development, testing and qualification. The substantially larger commercial opportunity would potentially come if Defence subsequently places the system into production. As at the prospectus date, Innovaero says it had completed all required Mission Talon-Strike deliverables to date to the satisfaction of Defence. The existing contract is scheduled to finish on 15 April 2027, and the prospectus makes clear there is no certainty that Innovaero will ultimately receive a production and manufacturing contract. For investors, that is both the opportunity and the major risk. If OWL-B progresses from funded development into substantial production, Innovaero becomes a very different business. If it does not, the valuation will have to be supported by the other products, aviation operations and new customers. FIGURE 03 OWL Mission profiles. Reproduced from the Innovaero Technologies Replacement Prospectus dated 18 August 2026, with attribution. Defence Track Record One of the more useful pieces of information buried in the prospectus is the company's history with Defence. Over the past five years, Innovaero lists approximately A$47.4 million of Department of Defence contracts across research and development, systems evaluation, manufacturing, training, project support and Mission Talon-Strike. The concentration is also substantial. Defence accounted for 71.2% of Innovaero Holdings' CY25 revenue, up from 42% in CY24. So the relationship is valuable, but the dependency cuts both ways. Why the Timing Is Interesting The sector backdrop is difficult to ignore. The Innovaero prospectus points to a structural change in how defence forces are thinking about uncrewed systems. Experience in Ukraine and the Middle East has put far greater emphasis on relatively affordable systems that can be manufactured in quantity, replenished rapidly and modified more quickly than traditional high-cost weapons platforms. The broader issue is not simply "more drones". It is the economics of defence. Traditional weapons can be extremely sophisticated and expensive. Modern conflicts are increasingly demonstrating the importance of mass, replenishment, unit economics and manufacturing capacity alongside technical performance. The prospectus identifies Australian Government commitments of more than A$22 billion for drones, counter-drone and autonomous technologies over the next decade, including at least A$4.3 billion for uncrewed aerial systems, while Project LAND 156 has a stated investment of A$1.3 billion over ten years for counter-drone capability. Australian defence policy has also identified autonomous systems, domestic manufacture of guided weapons and munitions, aviation MRO and test/certification capabilities among sovereign industrial priorities. This does not mean Innovaero automatically receives a meaningful share of that expenditure. It does mean the company is trying to commercialise its technology at a time when the policy environment appears much more receptive to domestically developed defence capability. BAE Systems Adds Another Layer BAE acquired 51% of Innovaero Holdings in 2023, before Innovaero Technologies reacquired that interest in December 2025 for total consideration of approximately A$12.77 million. However, BAE did not disappear from the story. In December 2025, it entered a four-year distribution arrangement under which BAE became the exclusive UK distributor for Innovaero products and a non-exclusive distributor outside Australia and the UK. Intellectual property in the products remains with Innovaero Holdings. The prospectus specifically states that BAE had not commenced distributing OWL products as at the prospectus date. So this should be considered an international market-access pathway, rather than established export revenue. The Other Revenue Engine The less glamorous part of Innovaero may ultimately be one of its useful strengths. The company provides engineering, certification, composite manufacturing and MRO work to the civil and defence aviation sectors. It has also maintained a long-running relationship with Eagleview Technologies, providing design, prototype building, testing, manufacturing, maintenance, operational and approval services around airborne camera systems. In CY25, the business generated: A$8.5 million from Advanced Uncrewed Systems and Aerospace Technology, up 50% from A$5.6 million in CY24, while MRO contributed around A$2 million, compared with A$1.7 million the previous year. This matters because it means the company is not waiting for the first OWL production order before generating revenue. The Financial Picture The accounts are not particularly straightforward because the ownership of Innovaero Holdings changed during the historical period. BAE Systems bought 51% in 2023, which meant Innovaero Technologies stopped fully consolidating the business before reacquiring the stake in December 2025. For that reason, I think the historical figures for Innovaero Holdings provide a cleaner picture of the underlying operating business (TABLE 02). A$ million CY23 CY24 CY25 Revenue 14.84 13.52 12.05 Gross Profit 3.66 1.88 3.87 EBITDA (3.37) 0.17 0.81 NPAT (3.13) (1.25) 0.08 TABLE 02 Innovaero Holdings historical results, CY23 to CY25. Figures in brackets are losses. Historical financial information as presented in the Replacement Prospectus. CY25 therefore represented a move into modest profitability at the Innovaero Holdings level, with EBITDA of approximately A$806,000. The picture at Innovaero Technologies itself is different. The collated FY26 accounts record approximately A$9.95 million revenue and a A$5.91 million after-tax loss, reflecting the ownership changes, development spending, administration expenses and other factors. This is therefore not an earnings-driven IPO today. The valuation is primarily about what the company could become if its defence programs move from development into scaled production. Revenue Numbers The prospectus forecasts A$14.4 million of consolidated revenue for the six months ending 31 December 2026. Of that: A$10.1 million is expected from Mission Talon-Strike, A$2.3 million is under purchase order from Eagleview, and A$2.0 million is uncontracted revenue based on known opportunities and historical activity. That means A$12.4 million of the A$14.4 million forecast is already under contract or purchase order. That is a meaningful point. However, Mission Talon-Strike revenue recognition remains dependent on the company achieving the relevant contractual milestones and performance obligations. So there is visibility, but not certainty. Where the A$40 Million Goes This is one of the stronger aspects of the IPO structure. The majority of the raise is intended for the technology and manufacturing build-out rather than simply funding corporate overhead (TABLE 03). Proposed Use A$m % Product & Platform Development 23.30 58.2% Facilities & Production Infrastructure 9.50 23.8% Sales & Market Development 3.00 7.5% Strategic Growth Initiatives 1.45 3.6% Offer Costs 2.75 6.9% Total 40.00 100% TABLE 03 Proposed use of the A$40 million raised. Use of funds as set out in the Replacement Prospectus. Product development includes OWL-X and OWL-C, while the infrastructure allocation includes the proposed Jandakot headquarters, R&D and low-rate manufacturing facility, additional large-scale manufacturing capacity and upgrades to existing aviation facilities. The infrastructure program also has government support. Innovaero Holdings has been awarded up to A$7.5 million, excluding GST, through Western Australia's Investment Attraction Fund – Defence Industry program for a new engineering, production and operations facility. Half of that amount had been drawn at the prospectus date. Following the IPO and associated pro-forma adjustments, Innovaero expects to have approximately A$48.9 million in cash and net assets of approximately A$55.6 million. That balance sheet should give management considerable room to execute the development program. Management Built Around Defence The company board, centred around defence and aerospace, has some intersting mix: Vince Di Pietro, the Non-Executive Chair, is a former Royal Australian Navy Commodore and later Chief Executive of Lockheed Martin Australia and New Zealand. His naval career included senior aviation and capability positions, while at Lockheed Martin he was involved across major Australian defence programs including the MH-60R Seahawk and F-35A. Founder and Executive Director Mike von Bertouch is an aerospace engineer whose history includes the technology behind Nearmap's airborne imaging systems, founding Spookfish and developing Innovaero's OWL family. Chief Executive Greg Tunny brings more than 35 years in defence and aerospace, including senior roles at Australian Defence Industries, Thales and ASC. He was CEO and Managing Director of ASC during the Hobart Class Air Warfare Destroyer program. There is also a meaningful level of founder ownership. On admission, entities associated with von Bertouch are expected to hold approximately 27.6% of the company, while director Gavin Martin and associated entities are expected to hold about 10.0%. For a technology company attempting to commercialise complex defence systems, the combination of engineering, procurement, military, financial and capital-markets experience appears deliberate. What Investors Need to Watch The prospectus is quite clear about the biggest risk, and I think investors should be equally clear about it. Customer concentration is high. The Department of Defence represented 71.2% of CY25 revenue, and Innovaero's near-term growth strategy depends substantially on OWL-B successfully completing the Mission Talon-Strike program and ultimately converting into production. There is no guarantee that a production contract will be awarded after the development contract finishes in April 2027. There are also normal but significant risks around intellectual property, regulatory and export approvals, specialist employees, supply chains, construction of new manufacturing facilities and the ability to scale production. The company itself characterises the shares as speculative. International growth should also be treated carefully. The company wants to expand into the United States, UK and Japan, and it has relationships that may assist that process, but most of the present commercial base remains Australian. Samso Concluding Comments What makes Innovaero interesting to me is that this is not really an IPO about whether drones are going to become important. That debate has largely moved on. The more relevant question is whether an Australian company can take a sovereign-designed defence system from research and development, through qualification, into repeatable manufacturing and ultimately production at scale. That is what investors are effectively being asked to back. At an indicative A$158 million market capitalisation, Innovaero is not being priced as a small engineering contractor. Investors are already paying for a portion of that future commercialisation opportunity. The present revenue base and the A$24.2 million Mission Talon-Strike contract provide substance, but they do not by themselves justify looking at the company as an established scaled defence manufacturer. The re-rating opportunity therefore sits in what happens next. If OWL-B completes qualification and moves into a meaningful Defence production program, the economics of Innovaero could change considerably because the company would be moving from development revenue toward repeat manufacturing. OWL-X and OWL-C would then potentially give the company a broader product family rather than dependence on a single platform. Conversely, if that transition does not happen, the current valuation will look much more demanding. That is why I would not describe Innovaero as simply another defence-themed IPO. There is genuine technology here. There is an existing relationship with Defence. There is an aviation business underneath it. There is significant capital being raised to build manufacturing capability. There is a board with substantial defence experience. And importantly, there is a very obvious milestone that investors can follow. Does OWL-B move from development into production? For me, that is the investment question. Everything else is context. Now we get to test it. THE VOCABULARY, IN PLAIN ENGLISH Loitering munition A small uncrewed aircraft that carries a warhead. It can circle over an area, wait for a target to appear, and then strike it. Because the aircraft is destroyed in the strike, it is a weapon rather than a reusable drone. One-way effector The broader term for any uncrewed system designed to be expended on its mission rather than recovered and flown again. Uncrewed aerial system, UAS An aircraft with no pilot on board, together with the ground control and communications equipment that flies it. What most people call a drone. TRL, Technology Readiness Level A nine-point scale used by defence buyers to describe how far a technology has been proven. TRL-4 is a laboratory prototype. TRL-7 is a prototype demonstrated in a realistic environment. TRL-8 is a finished system that has completed test and evaluation. Higher is closer to production. MRO, maintenance, repair and overhaul The business of keeping aircraft airworthy. Scheduled servicing, repairs, structural work and the paperwork that certifies it. Steady, contracted work rather than one-off sales. CASA, Civil Aviation Safety Authority Australia's aviation regulator. Its approvals cover who may design, build, modify and maintain aircraft. Airworthiness and certification The formal process of proving to a regulator or to Defence that an aircraft is safe and fit for its intended use. It is slow, evidence-heavy work, and it is a barrier to entry as much as a cost. Prospectus The disclosure document a company must lodge before offering shares to the public. It sets out the offer, the business, the accounts and the risks, and it is the primary source for everything in this article. Underwritten offer An offer where a broker guarantees to take up any shares investors do not buy. An offer that is not underwritten carries no such guarantee, so the company bears the risk of a shortfall. Joint lead manager The broker or brokers running the raising, finding the investors and managing the book of demand. Enterprise value Market capitalisation plus debt, less cash. It is a way of valuing the operating business on its own, separately from the cash sitting on its balance sheet. Pro forma Accounts restated as though a transaction had already happened. Pro forma cash here means the cash the company expects to hold once the IPO money is in and the offer costs are paid. EBITDA Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation. A rough measure of trading performance before financing and accounting charges. NPAT Net profit after tax. The bottom-line result. Class III drone The largest size category in the NATO classification of uncrewed aircraft. These fly higher, further and heavier than the small drones most people picture. The prospectus uses the term for the sort of target OWL-X is designed to intercept. Sovereign capability Defence equipment a country can design, build, maintain and upgrade at home, without depending on an overseas supplier at the moment it is needed. Cover photo: MQ-9 Reaper unmanned aerial vehicle, Air National Guard photo by Air Force Airman 1st Class Michelle J. Ulber. Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:MQ-9_Reaper_unmanned_aerial_vehicle.jpg) The Samso Way – Seek the Research Here at Samso, we pride ourselves on delivering content for investors that is independent and informed by over three decades of experience in the industry. Our content is well-researched and is only created if I see merit in discussing the company's story. Our mission is simple. Cut through the noise and spotlight what matters. Genuine stories, grounded insights, and real opportunity. Investors can explore our four core platforms: Coffee with Samso Samso Insights Samso News Samso Research There may be numerous paths to success in investing, but the common thread among successful individuals is that they remain committed to making informed decisions. Equip yourself with the right knowledge and tools, and you will be well on your way to achieving your financial goals. Most importantly, investors need to be absolutely diligent in understanding their own risk-reward tolerance and capabilities. Never bite off more than you can chew. As they say, Rome wasn't built in a day, and the Great Wall stood because it took centuries to complete. The Samso Philosophy: Stay curious. Stay sharp. And remember, digging deeper always uncovers the real value. In Life, there is no such thing as a Free Lunch. Never bite off more than you can chew is my parting comment. Happy Investing, and the only four-letter word you need to know is DYOR. To support our independent work, please head over to our Support Page and give us a helping hand in any of the ways listed. This is a new initiative for the Samso Platform, and it was always the concept of Samso when we started this journey in 2018. Disclaimer The information or opinions provided herein do not constitute investment advice, an offer, or solicitation to subscribe for, purchase, or sell the investment product(s) mentioned herein. It does not take into consideration, nor have any regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation, risk profile, tax position and particular, or unique needs and constraints. Read full Disclaimer. About Samso Samso is a trusted platform that equips dedicated investors with up-to-date industry knowledge and insights from top CEOs and thought leaders. By staying informed on business advancements and market trends, investors can enhance their financial decisions through a combination of expert guidance and their own research. Coffee with Samso, Samso Insights, Samso News and Samso Research are four ways into the same work. Interviews, long-form research, short takes on announcements and company-specific studies. Every one of them is about how to think about investing rather than what to buy. Samso News | www.samso.com.au | An Investor Lens on ASX-Listed Companies Samso News is independent research commentary for general information only. Nothing in this article is financial product advice, and it does not take into account any reader's objectives, financial situation or needs. Figures are drawn from public sources believed reliable at the stated dates but are not guaranteed. Market-sensitive numbers change daily. Samso or associated parties may hold positions in, or have commercial arrangements with, companies mentioned. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions. © Samso 2026 · samso.com.au

Copper has pushed into record territory above US$14,700 a tonne, driven by mine-supply problems, tariff-related stockpiling and rapidly growing electricity demand. We examine what is behind the copper price rally, whether it can last and which ASX copper stocks provide investors with exposure. Samso News Commodities Copper Market ASX Copper Stocks Copper has done something that commodity markets have been anticipating for years. The red metal has pushed into record territory, with three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange reaching US$14,736 per tonne on September 8, 2026 (FIGURE 01) FIGURE 01 Copper closing prices, three-month London Metal Exchange contract. Source: London Metal Exchange. The move has carried copper approximately 17.8% above the US$12,511-per-tonne three-month price recorded on January 2, illustrating just how strong the metal has been during 2026. For Australian investors, the currency translation makes the move even more noticeable. With the Australian dollar trading around US72.13 cents on September 8, US$14,736 copper equates to roughly A$20,430 per tonne before differences in contract pricing, freight, treatment charges and producer payability. New York copper also moved into record territory during the September 8 session, with front-month futures reported around US$6.78 per pound as copper mining equities including Freeport-McMoRan, rallied sharply (FIGURE 02). FIGURE 02 New York copper front-month futures. Source: Investing UK. The obvious question is therefore no longer whether copper has entered a strong market. THE SOURCES This piece is a market read rather than a review of one company release. The price and inventory figures come from the London Metal Exchange, COMEX and the Shanghai Futures Exchange. The supply figures come from the International Copper Study Group and from Codelco's reported first-half 2026 production. The demand figures come from the International Energy Agency, including its 2026 Critical Minerals Outlook, and from China's State Grid investment plan. The price forecasts quoted are those published by Citi, Goldman Sachs Research, CRU and S&P Global. Every figure is quoted as published at the date stated in the text, and market-sensitive numbers change daily. A NOTE ON THE VOCABULARY Copper carries its own shorthand. Concentrate, treatment and refining charges, Mineral Resource and Ore Reserve all mean something specific, and each is explained where it first appears. The full list is in the vocabulary box at the back of this article. Why is the copper price rising? The simple answer is that several long-term and short-term forces have arrived at the same time. Copper mine supply is struggling to grow quickly enough. Electricity networks require enormous quantities of metal. Artificial intelligence is accelerating investment in power generation and transmission. Electric vehicles and renewable energy remain important sources of consumption. China continues to invest heavily in its grid. At the same time, US tariff uncertainty has created an unusual movement of refined copper into American warehouses, reducing the amount of readily available metal elsewhere. That distinction is important because the record copper price is being driven partly by structural forces and partly by a market squeeze. For investors looking at ASX copper stocks, understanding the difference may be more important than the record itself (FIGURE 03). FIGURE 03 Global copper supply scenarios against forecast demand. Source: S&P Global. Why copper matters Copper is one of the foundations of the modern industrial economy because of its electrical and thermal conductivity, durability and ability to be recycled. It is found in buildings, motors, transformers, telecommunications equipment, industrial machinery, air-conditioning systems, vehicles and electrical appliances. But the next phase of demand is increasingly about electricity. The International Energy Agency expects copper to record the largest absolute demand increase of the major energy-transition minerals, with global demand increasing by around 7 million tonnes to 2040 under its Stated Policies Scenario. The primary drivers are electricity networks, electric vehicles, renewables and next-generation technologies. This is where copper differs from some other critical minerals. Copper does not depend on one emerging technology. An electric vehicle needs copper. A solar farm needs copper. A wind project needs copper. A battery-storage project needs copper. A data centre needs copper. And importantly, all those assets need to be connected to an electricity network that also needs copper. That network effect is becoming increasingly significant. Copper mine supply is struggling The supply side begins with mining. Global copper mine production declined by around 1.1% during the first half of 2026, according to International Copper Study Group figures reported by with weaker production in important producing countries including Chile and Indonesia contributing to tighter concentrate availability. One current example is Chilean state-owned producer Codelco. Codelco reported that its own copper production declined 11% to 564,000 tonnes in the first half of 2026, compared with 634,000 tonnes a year earlier. Operational restrictions at El Teniente, lower output at Chuquicamata and weaker grades at Ministro Hales all contributed. This highlights one of copper's structural problems. Building new mines is difficult, but maintaining output from mature mines is also becoming harder as deposits deepen, grades decline and mining becomes more technically complicated. There are large undeveloped copper resources around the world. The problem is converting a geological resource into an operating mine. Discovery must be followed by drilling, resource definition, metallurgy, feasibility studies, environmental studies, permitting, financing, construction and commissioning. That process can take more than a decade. The market therefore cannot respond to higher copper prices as quickly as it might for commodities where new supply can be developed within a few years. Concentrate is becoming increasingly valuable Another useful measure of copper-market tightness is the relationship between miners and smelters. Copper concentrate is the mineral-rich product created after mined ore is crushed, ground and processed. Smelters charge miners treatment and refining charges — commonly called TC/RCs — to convert that concentrate into refined copper. When concentrate is plentiful, smelters can demand higher charges. When concentrate is scarce, miners have greater negotiating power and treatment charges fall. The current weakness in treatment charges reflects the competition among smelters for limited concentrate feed. This does not necessarily mean there is no refined copper available anywhere in the world. That leads to perhaps the most misunderstood part of the current rally. Is there actually a copper shortage? There is a copper shortage in some parts of the supply chain. But saying simply that “the world has run out of copper” would be misleading. The current market contains an apparent contradiction. Mine and concentrate supply are tight, yet analysts have still forecast a surplus of refined copper during 2026. CRU principal had projected a 639,000-tonne global copper surplus for 2026. The key is where that copper is located. US tariff uncertainty has created an enormous incentive to move metal into America. COMEX inventories had risen for 46 consecutive days to a record 675,185 tonnes by August 25, while the US imported almost 885,000 tonnes of refined copper during the first half of 2026. This has effectively divided the copper market. There may be substantial inventory sitting in the United States, but that copper is no longer readily available to manufacturers elsewhere. The result is a shortage of copper outside the United States rather than necessarily a global shortage of refined metal. That is a crucial distinction for anyone considering the copper price outlook. US tariffs have distorted copper inventories The United States has been considering tariffs on refined copper imports, potentially beginning with a 15% tariff from January 1, 2027 and rising to 30% in 2028. The possibility of those tariffs has encouraged traders to move metal into US warehouses before any duties are imposed. It is essentially a geographical arbitrage. Copper can attract a higher value in the United States, so metal moves towards America. That leaves less copper in London, Europe and Asia. The uncertainty itself has therefore become bullish. Interestingly, Glencore chief executive Gary Nagle has argued that a tariff decision could eventually reduce some of that pressure simply because the market would finally have certainty. Reuters reported his view that clarity — whether tariffs ultimately settle at zero, 15% or 30% — could remove some of the speculative premium. This is one reason investors should be cautious about assuming US$14,000-plus copper is automatically the new long-term normal. China remains the biggest copper-demand story Whatever happens with American tariffs, China remains central to copper. China is the world's dominant copper-consuming economy and the largest copper-smelting nation. One of the strongest structural demand signals is its electricity network. China's State Grid plans to invest a record 4 trillion yuan — around US$574 billion — between 2026 and 2030, approximately 40% more than during the previous five-year period. Cross-regional power transmission capacity is expected to rise by 30%. Those networks require conductors, transformers, substations and electrical equipment. Copper sits throughout that system. Chinese physical demand has also periodically shown through warehouse and import data. In July, Shanghai Futures Exchange copper inventories had fallen more than 80% from mid-March levels, while the Yangshan premium — a useful indicator of Chinese import appetite - had risen to a 14-month high. China's economy remains uneven, so investors should not interpret every copper rally as evidence of a broad Chinese boom. But grid investment provides a specific source of demand that is considerably easier to identify. AI data centres are becoming a copper story Artificial intelligence is normally discussed through semiconductors, GPUs and software. The less glamorous part of AI is electricity. The International Energy Agency estimates global data-centre electricity consumption could rise from around 415 terawatt-hours in 2024 to approximately 945 TWh by 2030. That is more than double in six years. AI is expected to be the largest contributor to that increase. The copper demand does not stop at the walls of the data centre. New data centres require substations. Substations require transformers. Transformers require transmission and distribution infrastructure. New electricity demand requires additional generation. That generation then needs to connect back into the grid. So the copper impact of AI is not simply copper wiring inside server buildings. It is the electrical infrastructure surrounding the entire AI economy. What about electric vehicles and renewable energy? Electric vehicles, wind and solar remain important parts of the long-term copper equation. But the copper narrative has broadened. Several years ago the bull case was often reduced to: EVs + renewables = more copper. The argument in 2026 is much wider: EVs + renewable generation + storage + electricity grids + AI data centres + defence + manufacturing + electrification = more copper infrastructure. That diversification of demand matters because it reduces copper's dependence on the success of any single technology. The IEA's 2026 Critical Minerals Outlook still concludes that announced mine projects are not sufficient to meet expected long-term copper requirements. Its base case indicates a potential 25% gap between expected mine supply and primary copper requirements in 2035. That is one of the most important numbers in the entire copper discussion. Could the copper price reach US$15,000 a tonne? At this point the question almost sounds outdated. From US$14,736 per tonne, copper needs to rise less than 2% to reach US$15,000. Citi had already established a US$15,000-per-tonne target during 2026, arguing that constrained mine supply, relatively weak scrap response and tight physical inventories supported higher prices. In late July the bank maintained a US$14,500 near-term target and US$15,000 year-end target. But there is a useful counterargument. Goldman Sachs Research has been considerably more cautious. Earlier in 2026, Goldman argued that tariff-related stockpiling had pushed copper beyond its underlying fundamental value and estimated a fair price closer to US$11,500 per tonne, with a fourth-quarter forecast of around US$11,200. Goldman nevertheless remains structurally bullish over the longer term and has forecast copper around US$15,000 per tonne by 2035. The disagreement is revealing. Both camps can believe copper faces a long-term structural challenge while disagreeing substantially over what copper should be worth in 2026. Structural shortage or temporary squeeze? My view is that investors need to separate the direction of travel from the speed of the current move. The structural argument is increasingly difficult to ignore. Copper demand from grids and electrification is rising. AI is increasing electricity requirements. New mines take years to approve and build. Existing operations face grade decline and operational disruption. The IEA sees a substantial potential mine-supply gap by 2035. Those are structural issues. But there is also little doubt that the current price has been accelerated by tariff positioning, US stockpiling, constrained ex-US inventory and speculative momentum. Both things can be true at the same time. Copper could therefore undergo a substantial correction from US$14,700 and still remain in a fundamentally stronger long-term market than existed several years ago. That is the context in which I think ASX copper stocks should be considered. ASX copper stocks to watch in 2026 The ASX offers copper exposure from operating mines all the way down to early-stage exploration. They should not be treated as interchangeable. A producer earning revenue from copper at US$14,000 per tonne has very different exposure from an explorer that may not have an economic resource. Likewise, a Mineral Resource is not the same as an Ore Reserve, and contained copper is not the same as recoverable saleable metal. I would divide the Australian copper sector into four groups (TABLE 01). Company ASX Principal asset Stage Copper position Kantra Copper KAN Kanmantoo Producer 2026 guidance 12,750–14,000t Cu Aeris Resources AIS Tritton Producer 23,000t FY26 copper production AIC Mines A1M Eloise/Jericho Producer + expansion 631,800t Cu Mineral Resource Austral Resources AR1 Lady Annie/Anthill Producer Copper cathode operation Cyprium Metals CYM Nifty Restart 1.038Mt contained Cu Resource KGL Resources KGL Jervois Funded developer ~510,000t contained Cu Resource Caravel Minerals CVV Caravel DFS developer 3.03Mt contained Cu Resource Hot Chili HCH Costa Fuego Advanced developer 798Mt Indicated @ 0.37% Cu QMines QML Mt Chalmers DFS developer 11.3Mt @ 0.75% Cu MRE Coda Minerals COD Elizabeth Creek Resource/developer >1Mt contained CuEq Maronan Metals MMA Maronan Advanced exploration 271,000t contained Cu Hammer Metals HMX Mt Isa portfolio Explorer/resource >530kt CuEq inventory Revolver Resources RRR Dianne Restart/explorer 18,000t contained Cu MRE TABLE 01 ASX copper stocks to watch in 2026, grouped by stage. Compiled by Samso from the company disclosures cited in this article. ASX copper producers: the most direct exposure Kantra Copper - ASX: KAN Kantra Copper, formerly Hillgrove Resources, provides relatively direct copper-price exposure through its Kanmantoo underground mine in South Australia. Kanmantoo produced 6,290 tonnes of copper during the first half of 2026, and the company has guided to 12,750–14,000 tonnes for the full year. Its Mineral Resource stands at 22 million tonnes grading 0.74% copper and 0.17g/t gold. For investors looking specifically at copper price leverage, production matters. Kantra is selling copper into the current market rather than simply valuing copper in the ground. The other side of that equation is cost. Kantra's 2026 all-in sustaining cost guidance is US$3.80–4.19 per pound of payable copper sold, making realised copper prices and operating performance equally important. Aeris Resources - ASX: AIS Aeris Resources owns the Tritton Copper Operations in New South Wales, which produced 23,000 tonnes of copper in FY26, 19% higher year-on-year, at an AISC of A$4.17 per pound. Tritton's longer-term growth story centres partly on Constellation, which hosts 7.6 million tonnes grading 2.01% copper and 0.66g/t gold for 153,000 tonnes of contained copper. AIC Mines - ASX: A1M AIC Mines owns the Eloise copper mine and neighbouring Jericho project in Queensland. Combined Eloise Project Mineral Resources total 31.2 million tonnes grading 2.0% copper, containing approximately 631,800 tonnes of copper, while Ore Reserves contain 191,000 tonnes. Importantly, the assumptions used to calculate those resources and reserves include a long-term copper price of A$11,000 per tonne. That is dramatically below the current spot-equivalent price above A$20,000 per tonne. It does not mean the resource should simply be revalued at spot, but it demonstrates why sustained higher copper assumptions could influence future mine planning and project economics. The Eloise processing plant is being expanded from 725,000 tonnes to 1.1 million tonnes annually, with commissioning targeted for the December 2026 quarter. AIC expects Eloise and Jericho to support copper production exceeding 20,000 tonnes annually from FY28. Copper developers: where higher prices can change economics Cyprium Metals - ASX: CYM Cyprium's Nifty Copper Complex in Western Australia is one of the most obvious near-term copper restart stories on the ASX. Nifty contains a Mineral Resource of 125 million tonnes at 0.83% copper for approximately 1.038 million tonnes of contained copper, while Ore Reserves total about 797,000 tonnes of copper. Cyprium has been progressing a phased restart, with first copper cathode production targeted for the September 2026 quarter. The project therefore sits somewhere between developer and emerging producer. KGL Resources - ASX: KGL KGL's Jervois Copper Project in the Northern Territory contains approximately 510,000 tonnes of copper in Mineral Resources at an overall grade of around 1.76%. What makes Jervois particularly relevant in 2026 is funding. KGL secured a precious-metals streaming arrangement with Wheaton Precious Metals and subsequently launched a A$300 million equity raising, with the combined funding package designed to fully fund Jervois through development and into production. That takes the discussion beyond whether the copper exists. The question becomes whether the project can now be built successfully. Caravel Minerals - ASX: CVV Caravel is the scale story. The Caravel Copper Project in Western Australia hosts a Mineral Resource containing about 3.03 million tonnes of copper, while its updated Ore Reserve contains approximately 1.42 million tonnes. The proposed development is a large, long-life open-pit operation processing around 30 million tonnes annually. Its Definitive Feasibility Study is scheduled for completion in September 2026, making the current copper environment particularly relevant as Caravel moves towards more detailed project economics, approvals and financing discussions. Hot Chili - ASX: HCH Hot Chili's Costa Fuego project in Chile provides exposure to a very large porphyry copper-gold system. Costa Fuego's Indicated Mineral Resource totals 798 million tonnes at 0.45% copper equivalent, including 0.37% copper. The current exploration focus has increasingly shifted towards the nearby La Verde discovery, where recent drilling returned broad copper-gold intersections including 472 metres grading 0.41% copper equivalent, containing a higher-grade interval of 105.8 metres at 0.70% copper equivalent. That creates both development leverage at Costa Fuego and discovery leverage at La Verde. QMines - ASX: QML QMines owns the Mt Chalmers copper-gold project in Queensland. The current Mineral Resource totals around 11.3 million tonnes grading 0.75% copper, while the project's Ore Reserve contains about 65,000 tonnes of copper together with gold, zinc and silver. The company is advancing a Definitive Feasibility Study backed by a A$15 million investment from Queensland Investment Corporation, while simultaneously undertaking a 10,000-metre drilling program. Australian copper explorers: greater upside, greater uncertainty Explorers potentially offer greater percentage leverage to discovery, but their relationship with the copper price is much less direct. Coda Minerals has more than one million tonnes of contained copper-equivalent metal across the Elizabeth Creek project in South Australia, including the 40.2-million-tonne Emmie Bluff resource grading 1.27% copper plus cobalt and silver. Maronan Metals hosts approximately 271,000 tonnes of copper within its 32-million-tonne copper-gold resource in northwest Queensland, alongside a much larger silver-lead system. Hammer Metals controls multiple Mount Isa copper resources, led by Kalman, and reports an established JORC mineral inventory exceeding 530,000 tonnes of copper-equivalent metal across its broader portfolio. Revolver Resources is smaller but closer to a restart decision at Dianne in north Queensland. Its November 2025 Mineral Resource totals 1.31 million tonnes grading 1.38% copper for approximately 18,000 tonnes of contained copper, including a high-grade primary sulphide component grading 4.92% copper. These businesses provide very different risk profiles from Kantra, Aeris or AIC. That is why simply putting every ASX company with copper in its presentation into the same “copper stock” basket can be misleading. What should copper investors watch next? The first thing I would watch is US tariff policy. If the United States proceeds with substantial tariffs on refined copper, the incentive to keep metal inside America may remain, potentially keeping ex-US markets tight. If tariff uncertainty disappears, some of the speculative premium could also disappear. Second is exchange inventory. COMEX, LME and Shanghai warehouse movements will help show whether the current tightness is spreading or simply moving between regions. Third is Chinese physical demand. Grid investment is structurally supportive, but manufacturing activity, imports and the Yangshan premium will tell investors whether actual copper buying remains strong at elevated prices. Fourth is mine production. Codelco, Grasberg and other major operations matter because large production disruptions cannot easily be replaced. Finally, investors should watch the companies themselves. For the ASX names discussed here, the commodity price is only one part of the equation. Cyprium needs to successfully restart Nifty. KGL needs to deliver Jervois. Caravel needs to complete its DFS, approvals and financing pathway. QMines needs to convert technical studies into a viable development. Explorers need to discover and define economic tonnes. And producers need to control costs. Samso Concluding Comments Copper is giving investors one of the clearest examples of why commodity markets should never be reduced to a single headline. The long-term argument looks increasingly convincing. Global electricity infrastructure is expanding. AI is creating another major source of electricity demand. China is spending hundreds of billions of dollars on its grid. The energy transition continues. New copper mines remain difficult and slow to build. And the International Energy Agency still sees a potentially substantial gap between mine supply and demand by the middle of the next decade. However, that does not mean every part of the current record copper price is permanent. The unusual flow of metal into the United States ahead of potential tariffs has distorted global inventories. There is still evidence of a refined copper surplus when inventories are considered globally, and US$14,700-per-tonne copper may be pricing a tighter immediate market than the underlying long-term fundamentals justify. That is why I think the more interesting question is not whether copper will stay at US$14,700. It is whether the long-term copper price required to incentivise the next generation of mines is now materially higher than the assumptions the industry has historically used. If the answer is yes, the consequences for Australian copper producers and developers could be significant even if copper retreats substantially from its current record. For investors examining ASX copper stocks to watch in 2026, the important work is therefore to separate operating exposure from development exposure and exploration speculation. Copper in the ground has potential value. Copper in an Ore Reserve has greater confidence. Copper coming out of a mine and being sold into a US$14,000-per-tonne market is something else entirely. Previous Samso Coverage of Copper Samso has followed copper through 2026, across the three-part Copper Question series, company pieces and one interview. The entry in gold is a Coffee with Samso interview rather than a written piece. THE COPPER QUESTION SERIES AND SINCE COFFEE WITH SAMSO 30 AUG 2026 The Copper Is Hiding in the Minerals, Not the Assays. CSIRO's Tobias Schlegel on IOCG Vectoring. Tobias Schlegel of CSIRO on Iron Oxide Copper Gold systems, and vectoring towards them with mineral chemistry rather than assays. 28 AUG 2026 Austral Resources (ASX: AR1), what it actually owns now Austral rebuilt itself after a two-year suspension, agreed to buy a zinc mine for its copper ground, and reported a maiden drill result. 26 AUG 2026 Norfolk Metals (ASX: NFL) Targets Chilean Transformation with US$50M Ciclón Copper Acquisition Norfolk's US$50 million move on the advanced Ciclón copper project in Chile, and the raising behind it. 23 AUG 2026 The Copper Question, Part 3. Discussion On The ASX Copper Register A register of the copper an ASX investor can actually reach, producers through to explorers. 20 AUG 2026 The Copper Question, Part 2. Discussion On Copper's Supply Problem The supply side. Mine output missing its own guidance, and smelters taking concentrate at near zero charges. 12 AUG 2026 The Copper Question, Part 1. Discussion On Copper's Two Headwinds The two demand headwinds raised in the press, followed to their sources and set against a century of substitution. EARLIER COPPER COVERAGE 04 JUL 2026 Copper's precious passengers, where platinum and palladium hide in a porphyry Why a few of the world's giant copper mines also carry platinum and palladium, and how they got there. 24 JUN 2026 Unpacking the Lux Copper IPO (ASX: LUX) An independent look at the Lux Copper float, a raise to drill high-grade copper in Alaska's Ambler district. THE VOCABULARY, IN PLAIN ENGLISH Concentrate the mineral-rich product left after ore is crushed, ground and processed. It is what a copper mine actually sells. Treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) what a smelter charges a miner to turn concentrate into refined copper. They fall when concentrate is scarce, because smelters compete for it. Refined copper metal that has been through a smelter and refinery and is ready for manufacturing. Mineral Resource a body of mineralisation with reasonable prospects for eventual economic extraction. It is an estimate, not a commitment to mine. Ore Reserve the part of a Mineral Resource that study has shown can be mined economically. A higher level of confidence than a Resource. Contained copper the total metal in a resource, before any allowance for how much can be recovered and sold. Grade how much metal sits in the rock, quoted as a percentage for copper. All-in sustaining cost (AISC) a per-pound measure of what it costs a producer to keep producing, including the capital needed to sustain the operation. Porphyry a large, low-grade copper deposit formed around an intrusion. Most of the world's copper comes from this deposit type. Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS) the detailed study that sets out whether and how a project can be built, and on what economics. Yangshan premium the amount Chinese buyers pay above the exchange price for imported copper. It is read as a gauge of import appetite. LME and COMEX the London and New York exchanges where copper is priced, traded and warehoused. Streaming arrangement upfront funding paid to a miner in return for the right to buy future metal at a set price. Cover photo: Teghut Mine - open pit closeup, Serouj. CC0, via Wikimedia Commons (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Teghut_Mine_-_open_pit_closeup.jpg) The Samso Way – Seek the Research Here at Samso, we pride ourselves on delivering content for investors that is independent and informed by over three decades of experience in the industry. Our content is well-researched and is only created if I see merit in discussing the company's story. Our mission is simple. Cut through the noise and spotlight what matters. Genuine stories, grounded insights, and real opportunity. Investors can explore our four core platforms: Coffee with Samso Samso Insights Samso News Samso Research There may be numerous paths to success in investing, but the common thread among successful individuals is that they remain committed to making informed decisions. Equip yourself with the right knowledge and tools, and you will be well on your way to achieving your financial goals. Most importantly, investors need to be absolutely diligent in understanding their own risk-reward tolerance and capabilities. Never bite off more than you can chew. As they say, Rome wasn't built in a day, and the Great Wall stood because it took centuries to complete. The Samso Philosophy: Stay curious. Stay sharp. And remember, digging deeper always uncovers the real value. In Life, there is no such thing as a Free Lunch. Never bite off more than you can chew is my parting comment. Happy Investing, and the only four-letter word you need to know is DYOR. To support our independent work, please head over to our Support Page and give us a helping hand in any of the ways listed. This is a new initiative for the Samso Platform, and it was always the concept of Samso when we started this journey in 2018. Disclaimer The information or opinions provided herein do not constitute investment advice, an offer, or solicitation to subscribe for, purchase, or sell the investment product(s) mentioned herein. It does not take into consideration, nor have any regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation, risk profile, tax position and particular, or unique needs and constraints. Read full Disclaimer. About Samso Samso is a trusted platform that equips dedicated investors with up-to-date industry knowledge and insights from top CEOs and thought leaders. By staying informed on business advancements and market trends, investors can enhance their financial decisions through a combination of expert guidance and their own research. Coffee with Samso, Samso Insights, Samso News and Samso Research are four ways into the same work. Interviews, long-form research, short takes on announcements and company-specific studies. Every one of them is about how to think about investing rather than what to buy. Samso News | www.samso.com.au | An Investor Lens on ASX-Listed Companies Samso News is independent research commentary for general information only. Nothing in this article is financial product advice, and it does not take into account any reader's objectives, financial situation or needs. Figures are drawn from public sources believed reliable at the stated dates but are not guaranteed. Market-sensitive numbers change daily. Samso or associated parties may hold positions in, or have commercial arrangements with, companies mentioned. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions. © Samso 2026 · samso.com.au

Reading and comprehending ASX announcements is essentially the main way to grasp a company's business on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX). Hence, it is very easy to say that the ability to understand these documents is crucial. Therefore, it is a good reason to have your eagle hawk eyes on and closely monitor company announcements, while investing in the ASX. These releases frequently contain insights into a company’s condition, strategies, and possible risks. However, the true expertise comes in interpreting what the announcements reveal and what they omit. These are some smart investing measures to keep your hard-earned money "safer". Investing in the ASX One of the biggest mistakes that investors make is to take these updates at face value. Seasoned investors who have closely monitored the company's story are typically comfortable with the messaging as they have a good handle on the ins and outs of the project. However, for those that have just come across the story, it is imperative to capture the scene asap or you will be easily influenced by the "hype". Experience investing in the small end of town in the mineral exploration industry has taught me that empty promises are the same as perceived promises, and that is why it is an art to keep your sensors tuned into the right wavelength. To make smart or balanced decisions, investors need to look deeper. They must understand the business in its market and check if the company has the "faculties" to carry out its plans. Bright Idea I am not saying that management is being deceptive and acting in a illegal corporate behaviour. It just means that there is always a winner and a loser, so just make sure you are not the loser more often than being a winner. Remember that your job is to keep collecting smart investing behaviours. In this post, I will share some of my learning and hopefully, it will guide you on how to read ASX announcements critically. It will also show how tools like ASX Announcements Tracker, Market Insight Reports, and Financial Health Check Services can help you get a clearer picture. What to Look for in ASX Announcements ASX announcements cover a wide range of topics: earnings reports, strategy updates, acquisitions, capital raises, and more. Here are some key points to focus on: 1. The Tone and Language Used In my experience, the tone of the language is mostly not about the expression of the news, it is about the news itself. Collecting rock chips and announcing "high-grade" results, for me, are typically a promotional message. All rock chips are typically going to be high-grade. Looking at a rock and seeing blue-green colour will tell you that there is potentially copper mineralisation. Looking at a "haematitic" or "magnetitic" rock that would typically carry high-grade iron and using language that is "surprising" is a big hard to believe. Now, if that was shown and the language was more low key, I would take that as a more "sincere" way of saying, "hey you see these rocks, they are carrying good grades, its very interesting but lets find out more....". The other form of language what is commonly used to keep investors confident are vague phrases like “exploring opportunities” or “considering options.” These can mean the company is unsure and delaying decisions as they are now looking at alternative projects or the results means that they are needing to rethink the strategy. Clear Message Therefore, look for clear, specific statements about goals and timelines. If the language is overly cautious or full of qualifiers, it might signal uncertainty. 2. Financial Details and Funding This should be as easy one to describe, however, like all things in life, there are some skeletons in the closet as well. A company’s plans are only as good as its ability to pay for them. hence, always check if the announcement mentions how the project or strategy will be funded. Is the company raising capital? Are they relying on existing cash reserves? Don't fall into the trap of thnking that a rising commodity price for your potential investment will reflect in "finding" funding for the project. Just remember that this sector and in fact, most sectors are driven by brokers who need to have "skin in the game" otherwise, why would they risk their reputation and their source of income, their clients money. A rising sentiment for the company you are looking to invest does not mean that they will secure the funding. One would think that this is a simple equation on face value, but you will need to understand who is behind the "play" and their ability and their apetite to continue to fund the story is another matter. If a company talks about big projects but doesn’t mention funding, that’s a red flag. It could mean the plan is more wishful thinking than reality. You will notice that in almost all the case, big project acquisition comes attached with funding. Beware of the Drip Feed What this refers to is the raising that looks like they are just keeping the company afloat with fund raising of up to $500,000. The average ASx company will need somewhere between ADU $50,000 to AUD $100,000 per month to just pay for the administration. Drip Feeding Funding What that means is that it is just enough to keep the lights on and everyone paid. So if you are hoping that they will do some exploration work, forget about that. Some of the funding are even less. The time when a small raise (anything less than AUD $500,000 is pure administrative funding) like AUD $500,000 or AUD $1,000,000 works is when there is a immediate exploration program that simply require that kind of small funding. Exploration programs such as shallow drilling or soil sampling programs are times when small funding like that can be considered "worthwhile". 3. Market Context and Competition Announcements rarely mention competitors directly. But investors should consider the company’s position in the market. Is the company expanding in a growing sector? Are there new competitors or regulatory changes that could affect results? Questions like that tend to be more specifically related to ASX business that have direct competition issues. For the majority of the ASX mineral explorers, there tend to be less to no direct competition. They have enough problems trying to make a discovery. Understanding the broader market helps you judge if the company’s plans are realistic. Businesses like Calmer Co. International (ASX: CCO), who are selling a unique drink called Kava (derived from Fiji), is one where you would have to assess the market acceptance of Kava, the scalability of the product and the ability to find markets outside the pacific region. Where you are looking at some of the biotech companies, the need to cure a rare disease will always have a market as the likelihood of a mass flood of cure is low. I have also found that in the world of biotech, it is rare to find multiple companies looking to cure the same issue, hence it is rare to have competition in mases. Investor analyzing market trends, seeking insights for a competitive advantage. In the world of mineral exploration, the market context will be my thoughts on those looking for Gallium or marketing Gallium. In my opinion, there is no market for Gallium if you are not Alcoa. It is just too hard to execute for a company that has a market capitalisation of AUD $5M or even AUD $50M. A more relevant business in march 2026 is tungsten. There is a large disconnect between the rising price of tungsten metal and the understanding of investors. The issue is that there is a need to understand the geology of tungsten. Here is the problem, the high-grade sources are always prone to the "nugget-effect" and it is almost impossible to create an economical mining solution. The low-grade system needs to be large enough to create a mining scenario. The price for tungsten metal continues to rise and that is a clear sign that there is a supply issue. Si is the demand going to push the tungsten metal price higher? Tungsten Price Chart as of 2024 - 2025 (Source: Mining.com) The diagram above is a good example of the tungsten issue. In May 2025, the price of tungsten metal was averaging USD $395 per mtu. Today, on the 23rd of March 2026, that price is now averaging USD $2,650 per mtu (Figure below). The average Tungsten price was averaging at USD $2,200 about 10 days ago. Tungsten Price in 2026 So if a company comes out to say they have a tungsten project, it will be good to understand what they have in terms of potential deliverables. If you are not interested in the long term potential, you could easily ride the short term benefits. The problem with that is the market appears to be not overly interested in the sector. Samso Concluding Thoughts - Reading Between the Lines = Smart Investing ASX announcements are valuable sources of information. But they require careful reading and context. Investors should: Watch the language for signs of uncertainty Check if funding is in place for plans Understand the company’s market and competition Use tools like ASX Announcements Tracker, Market Insight Reports, and Financial Health Check Services to get deeper insights This approach helps investors make better decisions and avoid surprises. Remember, the company’s story is only part of the picture. The real value lies in understanding the business behind the words. There are a lot of credible commentators on social media, such as Roland Gotthard and Scott North for example who give their thoughts on Linkedin. Roland is a great one to test your suspicions but look out for these people. Take their thoughts and make your own minds up. Cover photo: NY stock exchange traders floor LC-U9-10548-6, Thomas J. O'Halloran. Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:NY_stock_exchange_traders_floor_LC-U9-10548-6.jpg) The Samso Way – Seek the Research Here at Samso, we pride ourselves on delivering content for investors that is independent and informed by over three decades of experience in the industry. Our content is well-researched and is only created if I see merit in discussing the company's story. Our mission is simple: cut through the noise and spotlight what matters—genuine stories, grounded insights, and real opportunity. Our content is well-researched and is only created if the team sees merit in discussing the company or concept. Investors can explore our three core platforms: Coffee with Samso Samso Insights Samso News There may be numerous paths to success in investing, but the common thread among successful individuals is that they remain committed to making informed decisions. Equip yourself with the right knowledge and tools, and you will be well on your way to achieving your financial goals. Most importantly, investors need to be absolutely diligent in understanding their own risk-reward tolerance and capabilities. Never bite off more than you can chew. As they say, Rome wasn’t built in a day, and the Great Wall stood because it took centuries to complete. The Samso Philosophy: Stay curious. Stay sharp. And remember—digging deeper always uncovers the real value. In Life, there is no such thing as a Free Lunch. Never bite off more than you can chew is my parting comment. 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