Coffee with Samso Episode 52 with Rob Longley, Managing Director of Ardiden Limited (ASX: ADV) Hollywood Results Canadian Geology and Giant Mines are synonymous when you talk mining in the North American Mining Industry. Having a large exploration package within the Land of the Giants is what I called stacking your bets. When I first came across Ardiden Limited (ASX: ADV), I was immediately drawn to the large land holding at Pickle Lake. A small cap exploration company on the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) with a land package over 800 square kilometres in an area of known mineralisation and working mines is not something ordinary. I do not know of one place that is easy to work in, so granting that this is not the easiest of places to work in and taking into consideration all the "other issues", Rob Longley and his team are taking the best approach in the search for the "holy grail" and that is to systematically work through the information and not rush into chasing "Hollywood Results". In this episode of Coffee with Samso, Rob Longley shares with us the significance of the geology, the potential of the land package and how the company slowly works through the numerous targets that have already presented themselves. About Rob Longley Rob Longley is a Geologist with extensive experience in global resources across gold, nickel, cobalt, lithium and iron ore sectors. Rob was Managing Director of Helios Gold Limited and prior to that was General Manager Geology for Sundance Resources in Africa from 2007 to 2015. Rob has an impressive track record of successfully managing and executing exploration programs in difficult and remote locations while delivering progressive results with Mineral Resources that bring shareholder value, underpinning the developments of mineral projects. Rob is well-respected in the industry for his professional integrity, his resource growth achievements and commercial leadership. PODCAST About Ardiden Limited Ardiden Limited (ASX: ADV) is an ASX-listed exploration company focused on building compelling gold resources at its 100%-owned Pickle Lake Gold Project in one of Canada’s most prolific gold mining districts in Northwest Ontario, Canada. The project consists of over 664km2 of highly prospective landholding across three Deposits, Kasagiminnis (Kas), Dorothy and Dobie Gold Deposit. Ardiden has a maiden Inferred 110,000oz high-grade gold resource (790,000t @ 4.3g/t Au) at the Kasagiminnis Gold Deposit and in May 2020 defined an exploration target of 500,000oz to 1.2Moz @ 3.9 – 6.6g/t Au. The Deposit represents only a small section (600m) of a continuous 120km strike length at the flagship Pickle Lake Gold Project. During 2020, Ardiden aims to build on this Resource at Kasagiminnis with definition drilling as well as applying modern exploration technique to unlock value at its highly prospective numerous prospects, identified in June 2020 through interpretation of various geological and geophysical data sets. Initial exploration of these targets has been very encouraging. Ontario is a tier-one mining jurisdiction and produced 2.5Moz gold in 2018, nearly half of Canada’s total annual gold production. The Province hosts 18 active gold mining projects. Ardiden also has 100% ownership of the Seymour Lake Lithium Project in Ontario, where it is seeking a partner or alliance to draw value from the project, as well as other lithium interests in Ontario including the Root Lake and Wisa Lake Lithium Projects. Disclaimer The information or opinions provided herein do not constitute investment advice, an offer or solicitation to subscribe for, purchase or sell the investment product(s) mentioned herein. It does not take into consideration, nor have any regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation, risk profile, tax position and particular, or unique needs and constraints. Read full Disclaimer. Share to Grow: Your Bonus Samso has just released an eBook: How to Add Value to your Share Portfolio A lesson on geological models sought by mining companies that gives insight and an understanding of which portfolios are better - and potentially more lucrative – investments. Click here to download this eBook. If you find this article informative and useful, please help me share the information. I try and write about topics that are interesting and have the potential to be of investment value. It is not easy to find stories that fit those parameters. If you or your organisation see the benefit of what Samso is trying to achieve and have a need to share your journey, please contact me on noel.ong@samso.com.au. About Samso

Midas Minerals (ASX: MM1) is a Perth-based copper explorer drilling the Otavi Copper Project in northern Namibia. There has been a lot of talk about copper recently, and in the midst of those copper narratives we think Midas makes an interesting discussion. Its shares closed at 12 cents two years ago and at A$1.13 on 2 October 2026. This is a summary of where the company stands and what is due next. Samso has not written on Midas before. The company appeared as the nearest listed comparison in our Kaoko Metals research workup in September, and the related Samso coverage is listed at the end. SOURCE DOCUMENTS Every company figure here comes from Midas Minerals' ASX announcements, which are listed on the company's announcements page. The main ones are the June 2026 Quarterly Activities Report and Appendix 5B (27 July 2026), the Half Yearly Report (10 September 2026), the Africa Down Under presentation (4 September 2026) and the Deblin drilling release (14 September 2026). Share prices are closing prices to Friday 2 October 2026. The Midas Minerals Story Midas listed on the ASX in September 2021. It still holds the Challa gold and nickel project in Western Australia and two lithium projects in Canada. The company investors are pricing today is a different one. The change came on 16 May 2025. Midas agreed to buy the Otavi Copper Project from Nexa Resources, a base metals producer listed in New York. Otavi is 10 exploration licences covering about 1,776 square kilometres, around 360 kilometres north-east of the capital Windhoek (FIGURE 01). Nexa worked the ground from 2015 to 2022 and left a dataset of about 56,000 metres of diamond drilling, which cuts a solid core of rock. It sold the project as part of a review of its global portfolio.

Rooster Talk Episode 33 with Andrew Radonjic, Managing Director - Venture Minerals Limited (ASX: VMS) The latest announcement on the Golden Grove north project. The first time I looked at Venture Minerals, I was immediately drawn upon the Golden Grove North deposit. The first Coffee with Samso - A Targeted Diversified Mineral Explorer - Venture Minerals Limited (ASX: VMS) was published on 26th October 2020. Today, Andrew Radonjic shares with us, the significance of the assays, what does it mean in terms of the exploration strategy. confirmation of a VMS system and the potential for further discoveries in the area. the relationship between the geophysical and geochemical exploration techniques. the next steps in the exploration path forward, and why the company is excited and why shareholders should be excited as well. This is a good time to download the first Ebook (FREE) from Samso as it is all about VMS (Volcanogenic Massive Sulfides). PODCAST About Andrew Radonjic Mr Radonjic is a geologist and mineral economist with over 25 years of experience in mining and exploration, with a specific focus on gold and nickel in the Eastern Goldfields of Western Australia. Mr Radonjic began his career at the Agnew Nickel Mine before spending over 15 years in the Paddington, Mount Pleasant and Lady Bountiful Extended operations north of Kalgoorlie. He has fulfilled a variety of senior roles which gave rise to three gold discoveries, totalling in excess of 3 million ounces in resources and the development of over 1 million ounces. About Venture Minerals Limited Venture Minerals Limited is currently exploring in Western Australia for Copper-Lead-Zinc at the Thor Prospect, Nickel-Cobalt at the Pingaring Project (adjacent and along strike to the Quicksilver Nickel-Cobalt discovery), Nickel-Copper (new target) at the Odin Prospect and Nickel-Copper-Cobalt at the Caesar Project. Recently the maiden drilling program at Thor intersected massive sulfides confirming the Copper-Lead-Zinc target is a 20 a kilometre VMS style system. Thor is now a top priority target for Venture moving forward. The Company's initial focus was on realising the full economic potential of the Mount Lindsay Tin-Tungsten Deposit in North-West Tasmania. The Company has already defined one of the world's largest undeveloped tin deposits and has completed a Feasibility Study on Mount Lindsay. The emergence of tin as the metal most impacted by new technology through its use in Electric Vehicles has refocused Venture’s approach to developing this asset and an underground scoping study is currently underway. Disclaimer The information or opinions provided herein do not constitute investment advice, an offer or solicitation to subscribe for, purchase or sell the investment product(s) mentioned herein. It does not take into consideration, nor have any regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation, risk profile, tax position and particular, or unique needs and constraints. Read full Disclaimer. Share to Grow: Your Bonus Samso has just released an eBook: How to Add Value to your Share Portfolio A lesson on geological models sought by mining companies that gives insight and an understanding of which portfolios are better - and potentially more lucrative – investments. Click here to download this eBook. About Rooster Talk Rooster Talks are conversations with industry experts about market insights, trends and learnings that benefit businesses across all sectors in the Australian Stock Exchange. If you find this Rooster Talk informative and useful, please help me share the information. I try and write about topics that are interesting and have the potential to be of investment value. It is not easy to find stories that fit those parameters. If you or your organisation see the benefit of what Samso is trying to achieve and have a need to share your journey, please contact me on noel.ong@samso.com.au. About Samso

In today’s fast-paced world, keeping up with financial trends is essential for making smart investment decisions and managing personal finances effectively. The financial market is constantly evolving, influenced by global events, economic policies, and technological advancements. Staying informed helps you anticipate changes, reduce risks, and seize opportunities. This article explores practical ways to stay updated on financial trends and understand market movements. Understanding Financial Trends and Their Importance Financial trends refer to the general direction in which the market or specific sectors are moving over time. These trends can be short-term or long-term and are shaped by various factors such as economic indicators, corporate earnings, geopolitical events, and investor sentiment. Why are financial trends important? They help investors identify potential growth areas. They provide insights into market cycles, such as bull or bear markets. They assist in risk management by highlighting possible downturns. They guide financial planning and portfolio adjustments. For example, the rise of green energy stocks over the past decade reflects a long-term trend driven by environmental concerns and government policies. Recognising such trends early can lead to profitable investments. To stay ahead, it’s crucial to monitor reliable sources that provide timely and accurate financial market updates. These updates offer real-time data and expert analysis, helping you make informed decisions. Financial analyst tracking market trends How to Track Financial Trends Effectively Tracking financial trends requires a combination of tools, resources, and strategies. Here are some practical steps to help you stay informed: 1. Follow Reputable Financial News Sources Regularly reading financial news from trusted outlets ensures you get accurate and up-to-date information. Websites, newspapers, and TV channels dedicated to finance provide market summaries, expert opinions, and breaking news. 2. Use Financial Market Platforms and Apps Platforms like Bloomberg, Reuters, and market-specific apps offer real-time data, alerts, and customizable dashboards. These tools allow you to track indices, commodities, currencies, and individual stocks. 3. Subscribe to Newsletters and Reports Many financial analysts and institutions publish newsletters that summarise market trends and forecasts. Subscribing to these can save time and provide curated insights. 4. Analyse Economic Indicators Keep an eye on key economic indicators such as GDP growth, unemployment rates, inflation, and interest rates. These indicators often signal upcoming market movements. 5. Engage with Financial Communities Online forums, social media groups, and investment clubs can be valuable for sharing knowledge and discussing trends with like-minded individuals. By combining these methods, you can build a comprehensive understanding of the market’s direction and make timely decisions. Smartphone showing real-time stock market data Why has the market suddenly fallen today? Sudden market drops can be alarming, but understanding the causes helps in managing reactions and strategies. Market declines often result from a combination of factors: Economic Data Surprises: Poor economic reports, such as lower-than-expected employment numbers or GDP contraction, can trigger sell-offs. Geopolitical Tensions: Conflicts, trade disputes, or political instability create uncertainty, leading investors to reduce exposure. Corporate Earnings Disappointments: When major companies report earnings below expectations, it can drag the market down. Interest Rate Changes: Central banks raising interest rates to combat inflation can reduce liquidity and increase borrowing costs, negatively impacting stocks. Market Sentiment and Technical Factors: Sometimes, automated trading and investor psychology cause rapid price movements. For example, a recent unexpected hike in interest rates by a central bank might cause investors to reassess risk, leading to a market fall. Understanding these triggers helps investors avoid panic and consider long-term perspectives. Stock exchange floor during a market downturn Practical Tips to Stay Ahead of Financial Market Changes Being proactive is key to navigating the financial market successfully. Here are actionable recommendations: Set Up Alerts: Use apps and platforms to receive notifications about significant market events or price changes. Diversify Investments: Spread your portfolio across different asset classes to reduce risk. Review Your Portfolio Regularly: Adjust your holdings based on changing market conditions and personal goals. Educate Yourself Continuously: Attend webinars, read books, and follow expert analyses to deepen your understanding. Avoid Emotional Decisions: Stick to your investment plan and avoid reacting impulsively to market volatility. By implementing these strategies, you can better manage your investments and capitalise on emerging financial trends. The Role of Technology in Monitoring Financial Trends Technology has revolutionised how we access and interpret financial data. Advanced algorithms, artificial intelligence, and big data analytics provide deeper insights and predictive capabilities. AI-Powered Analytics: These tools analyse vast amounts of data to identify patterns and forecast market movements. Automated Trading Systems: They execute trades based on predefined criteria, reducing human error. Mobile Access: Smartphones and tablets allow investors to monitor markets anytime, anywhere. Social Media Monitoring: Platforms like Twitter and LinkedIn offer real-time sentiment analysis and news updates. Embracing technology enhances your ability to stay informed and react swiftly to market changes. For ongoing insights, consider visiting financial market updates to access expert commentary and data. Staying informed about financial trends is not just for professionals. With the right approach and tools, anyone can keep pace with the market and make smarter financial decisions. Regularly updating your knowledge and adapting to new information will empower you to navigate the complexities of the financial world confidently. The Samso Way – Seek the Research In the Samso way, seeking the research means looking beyond the headlines to understand the data, the geology, the financial news, the scientific analysis, the medical results, the proving of artificial intelligence, and the strategy driving a project. It’s about analysing the details — from start to commercial realisation — to identify genuine potential and avoid the noise. In understanding the art of investing, knowledge is the real commodity, and informed analysis is the edge. Our mission is simple: cut through the noise and spotlight what matters—genuine stories, grounded insights, and real opportunity. Our content is well-researched and is only created if the team sees a merit in discussing the company or concept. Investors can explore our three core platforms: Coffee with Samso Samso Insights Samso News There may be numerous paths to success in investing, but the common thread among successful individuals is that they remain committed to making informed decisions. Equip yourself with the right knowledge and tools, and you will be well on your way to achieving your financial goals. Most importantly, investors need to be absolutely diligent in understanding their own risk-reward tolerance and capabilities. Never bite off more than you can chew. As they say, Rome wasn’t built in a day, and the Great Wall stood because it took centuries to complete. The Samso Philosophy: Stay curious. Stay sharp. And remember—digging deeper always uncovers the real value. In Life, there is no such thing as a Free Lunch. Happy Investing, and the only four-letter word you need to know is DYOR. To support our independent nature of our work, please head over to our Support Page and give us a helping hand in any of the ways listed. This is a new initiate for the Samso Platform, and it was always the concept of Samso when we started this journey in 2018. Disclaimer The information or opinions provided herein do not constitute investment advice, an offer or solicitation to subscribe for, purchase or sell the investment product(s) mentioned herein. It does not take into consideration, nor have any regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation, risk profile, tax position and particular, or unique needs and constraints. Read full Disclaimer. Share to Grow: Your Bonus Samso has just released an eBook: How to Add Value to your Share Portfolio A lesson on geological models sought by mining companies that gives insight and an understanding of which portfolios are better - and potentially more lucrative – investments. Click here to download this eBook. Download eBook If you find this article informative and useful, please help me share the information. I try and write about topics that are interesting and have the potential to be of investment value. It is not easy to find stories that fit those parameters. If you or your organisation see the benefit of what Samso is trying to achieve and has a need to share your journey, please contact me at noel.ong@samso.com.au. About Samso Samso is a trusted platform that equips dedicated investors with up-to-date industry knowledge and insights from top CEOs and thought leaders. By staying informed on business advancements and market trends, investors can enhance their financial decisions through a combination of expert guidance and their own research.

In this episode of Coffee with Samso, Noel Ong speaks with the team from PTR Minerals Limited about the discovery of the Rosewood Titanium Deposit at the Muckanippie Project in South Australia. The conversation explores how a team with a strong discovery pedigree, including links to the Prominent Hill story, identified a new titanium system through practical fieldwork, reinterpretation of historic drilling, and an open-minded geological approach. The discussion also highlights the company’s evolution from Petratherm to PTR Minerals, the significance of Rosewood’s shallow high-grade titanium mineralisation, and why the project may become an important development story in the Australian mineral sands sector. In the words of Samso, get your favourite beverage and sit and listen to another great insight from Coffee with Samso. Coffee with Samso | Episode 216 | Adelaide Markets | Adelaide | South Australia Audio Podcast: The Discovery of the Rosewood Titanium Deposit and the New Chapter for PTR Minerals Guest: Derek Carter – Chairperson Rob Sennitt - Executive Director Peter Reid – CEO Barry Van Der Stelt – Exploration Manager Sam Rashier - Project Geologist From Petratherm to PTR Minerals Before getting into the titanium discovery, Peter gave a fascinating overview of the company’s origins. PTR Minerals began life as Petratherm, a company created around the idea of hot dry rock geothermal energy. Back in the early 2000s, this was a genuine frontier concept in Australian energy markets. The team was looking for buried granites with high radiogenic heat, covered by insulating sediments, where deep drilling could tap temperatures of around 200 degrees Celsius at roughly four kilometres depth. The company was one of the early pioneers in this part of the geothermal sector. Peter explained how Petratherm developed models with the University of Adelaide, floated the company in 2004, and spent years testing the geothermal concept. Technically, the project worked. Economically, it did not. Deep drilling was expensive, the development model needed major capital, and by the time the work had advanced, solar and wind had become easier and cheaper investment options. That part of the discussion was important because it highlighted a recurring theme in resource markets: a technically successful project is not always an economically successful one. When the geothermal market faded, Petratherm was effectively put on the shelf. Later, as interest in mineral exploration returned, the company was revitalised and repositioned around minerals. The old team came back together, and the listed shell became the vehicle for a renewed exploration push in South Australia. That is the company that eventually became PTR Minerals. The Search for IOCG and the Shift Toward Muckanippie The original mineral exploration focus for the reactivated company was the Olympic Domain in South Australia, with the team targeting IOCG-style copper-gold systems. That made sense given their background and the geological setting. But exploration rarely follows a straight line. Peter described how the company had also revisited old ground in the northern Gawler Craton, including an historic gold prospect called Comet. In following up old work, the team began to see something else emerging in the geochemistry. Rare earths were showing up, along with elevated titanium, PGEs, and gold, associated with magnetic mafic layered intrusions. Although the rare earth metallurgical story did not stack up, the geology pointed them toward the Muckanippie Suite Intrusion, a large layered complex in the region. Old drilling had already hinted at titanium-rich material, and as the team assembled more ground and reviewed historical data, the titanium story began to strengthen. This is where the exploration story starts to become classic Samso material. The company was not chasing mineral sands. It was trying to understand a layered mafic system and its broader potential. But by keeping an open mind and letting the data lead, the team moved into a discovery space that others had missed. The Discovery of Rosewood The actual discovery story was one of the best parts of the conversation. Peter explained that by 2024, the company had enough encouragement to put boots on the ground at Muckanippie. The instruction to the field team was simple: get out there and see what is actually on the surface. Barry and Sam described how they used Google Earth, elevation models, and simple field logic to identify places where there might be a bit of basement exposure. This was not glamorous exploration. It was careful fieldwork, targeted observation, and the willingness to test things that looked unusual. What they found were small, dark mineral exposures in sediments. The outcrops were not dramatic. In fact, they were the sort of things many people might have walked past. But the samples were taken, sent to the lab, and came back with highly significant titanium values. That first result changed everything. Barry recalled that the initial sample returned around 27% Ti, equivalent to over 40% TiO₂, from what was essentially a random outcrop at surface. From there, they went back out and mapped the escarpment more thoroughly, following the mineralisation for several kilometres and seeing repeated titanium values ranging from modest levels up to very high grades. This was the turning point. What had looked like isolated surface expressions now appeared to be part of a much larger mineralised system. The Exploration Lesson: Boots on the Ground For me, one of the strongest messages in this Coffee with Samso episode was something much simpler than grades or metallurgy. It was the reminder that discoveries still come from fieldwork. Derek, Barry, Peter, and Sam all returned to this idea in different ways. Modern exploration relies heavily on geophysics, remote sensing, and modelling, but the Rosewood story was triggered by geologists physically walking the ground, recognising something unusual in small surface exposures, and sampling it. That matters because it says something about the culture of the team. The Rosewood discovery was not just about sophisticated interpretation. It was also about observation, curiosity, and the willingness to challenge assumptions. They were not specifically looking for an inland mineral sands deposit, yet that is what they found because they were open to what the rocks were telling them. That, to me, is the heart of good exploration. Samso Concluding Comments In our typical fashion, this is all about the discovery and it was good that we had the right mix of geology, discovery thinking, and commercial realism. The Rosewood Titanium Deposit is a serious story, irrespective of its potential economic significance in 2026. Whether it becomes a tier-one development will ultimately depend on the metallurgy, product pathway, market conditions, and execution from here. That is the normal path for any discovery. But what you can say today is that the ingredients are there for something to remember. For me, the most important part of this story is how the discovery was made. It was not a story built on hype. It was built on a technical team revisiting a district, looking at old information in a new way, and then going out into the field with open eyes. That is still how good discoveries are made. Investors should also take note of the stage the company is now entering. The early discovery excitement has already happened. The next phase is more important. This is where the project has to prove that the metallurgy, flowsheet, logistics, and development strategy can support the geological promise. That is where value is either confirmed or lost. My view is that PTR Minerals now has the kind of problem most explorers would love to have. They appear to have found a project with scale, grade, and location. From here, it becomes a matter of turning that discovery into a development story. This episode of Coffee with Samso is definitely worth viewing. It's not merely about another exploration achievement; it's about how experience, fieldwork, and open-minded geology can still generate real value in the Australian resources industry. It emphasizes the often overlooked and neglected details, which, as all seasoned practitioners remind the younger generation, are always the key to making the story unfold. Chapters 00:00 Start 02:16 The PTR Minerals Story on Coffee with Samso 02:42 Peter Reid introduces the team 03:20 The Petratherm Story 06:45 Direction of Support for Petratherm 07:49 10 years of Geothermal Story 08:20 Technically correct but the Economics ended the geothermal story 10:58 Government Policy changes made it worst. 11:41 Could the geothermal story make a comeback? 13:26 The learnings from the journey. 14:12 Change to chasing IOCG. 15:27 The regrowth of Petratherm 16:19 The changing time for the commodity market - Petratherm Restart 17:49 The start of the titanium discovery 23:33 Barry and Sam explains the exploration that made the discovery. 26:04 The discovery outcrop 26:50 Historical drilling compliments the exploration 27:58 The excitement of the share price rising. 29:03 Extensive exploration after the hype confirms the mineralisation 30:23 What is considered a good result in the titanium narrative ? 33:27 Any native title issues? 34:03 Any association to Barton West Titanium project 35:12 Unique Geochemistry. 35:52 Potential Large Resource? 36:19 Progress 36:53 Market Capitalisation 37:56 The status of the titanium market 41:25 How is the market understanding the PTR Minerals story? 44:15 Where is the risk for PTR Minerals ? 46:02 The speed of development of the titanium project. 46:57 A good problem to have. 47:21 Projects take years to develop. 49:27 Geological mapping is still an important part of exploration 52:20 Other projects in PTR Minerals 54:55 Land banking issues in South Australia 55:39 What makes a difference in exploring in the Gawler ? 56:31 What would Sam say to the newer generation of geologists ? 58:30 Olympic Dam or Poor cousin. 59:07 Conclusion The Samso Way – Seek the Research Here at Samso, we pride ourselves on delivering content for investors that is independent and informed by over three decades of experience in the industry. Our content is well-researched and is only created if I see merit in discussing the company's story. Our mission is simple: cut through the noise and spotlight what matters—genuine stories, grounded insights, and real opportunity. Our content is well-researched and is only created if the team sees merit in discussing the company or concept. Investors can explore our three core platforms: Coffee with Samso Samso Insights Samso News There may be numerous paths to success in investing, but the common thread among successful individuals is that they remain committed to making informed decisions. Equip yourself with the right knowledge and tools, and you will be well on your way to achieving your financial goals. Most importantly, investors need to be absolutely diligent in understanding their own risk-reward tolerance and capabilities. Never bite off more than you can chew. As they say, Rome wasn’t built in a day, and the Great Wall stood because it took centuries to complete. Always read the announcement, understand the geology, and follow the development pathway before forming an investment view. The Samso Philosophy: Stay curious. Stay sharp. And remember—digging deeper always uncovers the real value. In Life, there is no such thing as a Free Lunch. Never bite off more than you can chew is my parting comment. Happy Investing, and the only four-letter word you need to know is DYOR. To support our independent nature of our work, please head over to our Support Page and give us a helping hand in any of the ways listed. This is a new initiate for the Samso Platform, and it was always the concept of Samso when we started this journey in 2018. Disclaimer The information or opinions provided herein do not constitute investment advice, an offer or solicitation to subscribe for, purchase or sell the investment product(s) mentioned herein. It does not take into consideration, nor have any regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation, risk profile, tax position and particular, or unique needs and constraints. Read full Disclaimer. Share to Grow: Your Bonus Samso has just released an eBook: How to Add Value to your Share Portfolio A lesson on geological models sought by mining companies that gives insight and an understanding of which portfolios are better - and potentially more lucrative – investments. Click here to download this eBook. If you find this article informative and useful, please help me share the information. I try to write about topics that are interesting and have the potential to be of investment value. It is not easy to find stories that fit those parameters. If you or your organisation sees the benefit of what Samso is trying to achieve and has a need to share your journey, please contact me at noel.ong@samso.com.au. About Samso Samso is a trusted platform that equips dedicated investors with up-to-date industry knowledge and insights from top CEOs and thought leaders. By staying informed on business advancements and market trends, investors can enhance their financial decisions through a combination of expert guidance and their own research.

Coffee with Samso Episode 33 with Chris Davis, Diesel Nanoparticulates This episode is off our beaten track and a bit more scientific, but I believe it highlights an issue of great importance - the profound effects of diesel exhaust emissions on workers in the mining industry. I’m talking here to Chris Davis, a veteran of the industry and the champion of this issue in the West Australian mining community. Chris reveals the disturbing fact that miniscule nanoparticles in diesel exhaust can alter human genetic structure, meaning that future generations could suffer the effects of these emissions. Diesel exhaust emissions, already declared a Class 1 Carcinogen by the World Health Organisation, consist of gaseous components like CO, NOx, Sox and HC, as well as diesel particulate matter (DPM) made up of carbon soot chains from the combustion process covered with solid metals, hydrocarbons, aldehydes and other chemicals. The problem is that nano diesel particulate matter (nDPM) is so small – less than a hundredth of the width of a human hair – it’s easily ingested and the body has no natural defence. It passes directly from the lungs to the bloodstream to appear anywhere in the body and can even pass from the nose through nerves to the brain. The World Health Organisation’s DPM Carcinogen classification mainly concerned lung cancer, but other clinical studies have indicated further health effects such as bladder cancer, DNA damage and impaired blood vessel function. Highlights of my conversation with Chris include: Everyone’s talking about COVID-19 transmission, but nDMP is much finer and lungs weren’t designed to handle diesel particles A study at a West Australian mine showed that after just one shift miners ingesting these chemicals had higher blood pressure and lower respiratory function More worryingly, the study showed some DNA gene functions had been altered nDPM filters are available and have already been introduced on buses in Europe Watch the interview here or see the video above. PODCAST Disclaimer The information or opinions provided herein do not constitute investment advice, an offer or solicitation to subscribe for, purchase or sell the investment product(s) mentioned herein. It does not take into consideration, nor have any regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation, risk profile, tax position and particular, or unique needs and constraints. Read full Disclaimer. www.samso.com.au If you find this article informative and useful, please help me share the information. I try and write about topics that are interesting and have the potential to be of investment value. It is not easy to find stories that fit those parameters. If you or your organisation see the benefit of what Samso is trying to achieve and have a need to share your journey, please contact me on noel.ong@samso.com.au. About Samso

Mining HQ Podcasts Ep. 1 - 00:41 Samso debuts this podcast with Mining HQ by introducing what Samso does. Noel also reveals his favourite stocks: GAL – Good exploration project, nickel. RIE – Good project in the US. High grade gold in Arizona. HCH – Big copper play in Chile. BSX – A more producer style company in nickel, downstream and in Vietnam. CYM – Copper play in Australia. Looking to produce copper in 2022. Tune in to : Also don't miss out on: Or go to 00:41 - https://open.spotify.com/episode/4FMI7L5HFosFEvZ5o5vjEE Radio Interviews with Mining HQ reaching out to 100,000 audiences per broadcast Noel Ong of Samso and Chris LeMesurier of 1055 TripleM speak fortnightly on Mining HQ about Mineral Exploration, Commodities and Mineral Resources. For the investors: Our interviews with Mining HQ includes topics to help you make good investment decisions. We also share Stock Picks, Stocks to Watch and Weekly Summaries. For Samso's clients: This is an additional opportunity for you to engage with investors directly. Samso works with a number of Media Partners like MiningHQ and Brilliant-Online to widen your reach. Contact Samso

An impressive high-grade 4.20 metre intersection at 42.43g/t Au — including 1.37 metres at 126.93g/t Au — has reinforced the case for Burbanks. A second drill rig is now pushing the Inferred Resource down to 450 metres below surface, and a paired tenement swap with Accelerate Resources delivers fresh ground proximal to the Black Swan Processing Hub. Samso News | ASX: MRT | Gold | Black Swan Processing Hub | Burbanks Gold Project | Maritana Minerals Limited (ASX: MRT), formerly Horizon Minerals Ltd, has progressed three significant work streams across its Western Australian gold portfolio in May 2026. The activity sits within the company's broader strategy to refurbish the 2.2 Mtpa Black Swan Processing Hub and bring it back online as a standalone gold producer, with first gold targeted for mid-2027. Earlier this month, the company delivered additional high-grade assay results from its completed Phase 1 diamond drill program at the 100%-owned Burbanks Gold Project. Bolstered by these results, Maritana kicked off phase 2 drilling at Burbanks mid-May , with a second rig mobilised to site. On 19th May, the company announced a dual tenement transaction with Accelerate Resources Limited (ASX: AX8), acquiring the Kanowna East tenure package and divesting its non-core Balagundi tenure package. Table 1: Summary of May 2026 activities Samso Summary Details Company Maritana Minerals Limited ASX Code MRT Primary Assets Black Swan Processing Hub (2.2Mtpa, in C&M); 1.9Moz Group Mineral Resource across multiple WA Goldfields projects Main Story Phase 1 drilling delivered ultra-high-grade results at Burbanks; Phase 2 drilling now underway with second rig mobilised; Kanowna East acquired and Balagundi divested in dual transaction with Accelerate Resources Operating Platform Fully funded through A$175M placement plus A$4.65M SPP; A$114.1M cash and no debt (as at 6 March 2026) Black Swan Studies Pre-production capital A$160.5M; capital intensity ~A$1,500/oz; project pre-tax NPV8 ~A$631M; IRR 83% at A$5,500/oz gold price Burbanks Phase 1 53 holes for 15,798m completed; standout intercept 4.20m at 42.43g/t Au including 1.37m at 126.93g/t Au from 290.84m in 26HBBD044 Burbanks Phase 2 Designed to extend Inferred Mineral Resource from 250m to up to 450m below surface; revised total program 25,000m Kanowna East Acquired from Accelerate Resources for ~A$200,000 in MRT shares (net); proximal to Gordon's Dam and Black Swan Balagundi Divestment Divested to Accelerate; Maritana retains 1% NSR royalty and a 5-year right of first refusal over future toll treatment at Black Swan Burbanks Phase 1 Drilling: High-Grade Results Define the Story The Burbanks Gold Project is located on a granted Mining Lease (M15/161) nine kilometres south of Coolgardie in the Western Australian Goldfields. The mineralisation is hosted within the Burbanks Shear Zone, a five-kilometre strike package of basalts and intercalated gabbro, dolerite and sediments (Figure 1). Gold occurs in ptygmatically folded and boudinaged laminated quartz veins with pyrite, pyrrhotite, scheelite and an alteration assemblage of plagioclase, calcite, biotite and garnet. Historical underground mining at Burbanks produced 324,000 ounces at a head grade of 22.7g/t gold between 1885 and 1961. In geology, a ptygmatically folded rock layer or vein features highly irregular, tight, and complexly contorted wrinkles that resemble a chaotic, looping snake or a squeezed tube of toothpaste. (Click Here for illustration) A boudinaged rock layer or vein has been stretched and pulled apart into a series of sausage-shaped fragments (Click Here For Illustration) Figure 1: Burbanks Gold Project showing the location of the Phase 1 completed holes and the current Phase 2 drill program (Source: MRT ASX Announcement 14 May, 2026). During the phase 1 program, the company reported a series of high-grade results that have materially improved the geological understanding of the deposit. Hole 26HBBD044 is the standout. It returned a 4.20 metre intersection at 42.43g/t gold from 289.63 metres, which includes 1.37 metres at 126.93g/t gold from 290.84 metres. The same hole returned a 0.30 metre intercept at 54.02g/t gold from 207.41 metres and a 1.84 metre intercept at 5.98g/t gold from 223.00 metres, including 1.20 metres at 8.69g/t gold (Figure 2). Figure 2: Gold mineralisation located within a quartz vein hole 26HBBD044. The interval grades 4.20m @ 42.43g/t Au from 289.63m including 1.37m @ 126.93 g/t Au from 290.84m (Source: MRT ASX Announcement 04 May, 2026). Maritana began a two-phase extensional and infill drilling program at Burbanks in late June 2025. Phase 1 was designed to improve geological confidence at the Burbanks North open pit, which is included in the current LOM plan, and at the Burbanks underground, which is not. Phase 1 comprised 53 diamond drill holes for a total of 15,798 metres. Assay results have been received for all but the final four holes, with two further results pending at the time of the 4 May 2026 release. The company also highlighted that visible gold was logged in quartz veining within the shear zone in 26HBBD044, with a photograph of the mineralisation included in the announcement. The presence of visible gold in a hand-sized core sample is a strong geological indicator but introduces the well-known nugget effect into grade interpretation. From a project assessment perspective, the result is significant because the standout intercept is associated with the broader Burbanks Shear Zone rather than a single anomalous nugget. Other notable Phase 1 results include a 6.49 metre intersection at 2.66g/t gold from 354.51 metres in hole 26HBBD039 (including 1.27 metres at 6.54g/t gold), a 1.81 metre intersection at 13.82g/t gold from 113.88 metres in 26HBBD040, a 2.02 metre intersection at 5.99g/t gold from 244.98 metres in 26HBBD042, and a 0.63 metre intersection at 24.32g/t gold from 460.37 metres in 26HBBD038 including 0.30 metres at 40.95g/t gold. Table 2: Selected significant intercepts from Phase 1 drilling at Burbanks Hole ID From (m) Interval (m) Au (g/t) 26HBBD044 289.63 4.20 42.43 incl. 290.84 1.37 126.93 26HBBD044 207.41 0.30 54.02 26HBBD044 223.00 1.84 5.98 incl. 223.64 1.20 8.69 26HBBD038 460.37 0.63 24.32 incl. 460.37 0.30 40.95 26HBBD039 354.51 6.49 2.66 incl. 355.97 1.27 6.54 26HBBD040 113.88 1.81 13.82 26HBBD042 244.98 2.02 5.99 26HBBD049 229.62 0.52 10.83 Intercepts are downhole intervals and not true widths. Reporting uses a 1.0g/t Au cut-off with a maximum of 1m internal dilution. No top-cut has been applied. Full results are reported in the 4 May 2026 ASX announcement. Beyond the headline grades, the spatial context of the Phase 1 pierce points is the more material outcome. The schematic long section (Figure 2A) published in the 4 May 2026 release shows that the recently reported intercepts sit both within and outside the current Inferred Mineral Resource envelope. The deep intercept in 26HBBD038 (0.63 metres at 24.32g/t Au from 460.37 metres) is well below the existing resource shell, supporting the case that mineralisation continues at depth. This is the geological basis for the Phase 2 program now underway. Figure 2A: SW NE schematic long section on local grid showing the location of drilling in the 2025-26 drill program at Burbanks North, the current MRE categories, historical pierce points and recent drill traces with pierce points >1.0g/t. Previously reported intersections from this program are highlighted in white boxes, current intersections are in yellow. (source Maritana Minerals Limited - ASX Release 4th May 2026) Management Commentary — Phase 1 Results “Following strong results previously reported, the latest assays from Burbanks continues to demonstrate consistent high-grade mineralisation and improved geological confidence. The ongoing success of the drilling program continues to de-risk the project, as we progress Burbanks towards becoming a reliable source of feed for Maritana's 100% owned Black Swan Processing Hub.” — Grant Haywood, Managing Director and CEO, Maritana Minerals Limited (4 May 2026) Burbanks Phase 2: Drilling the Resource at Depth Maritana kicked off Phase 2 drilling in the days following the 4 May 2026 Phase 1 results release. A second drill rig has been mobilised to site to accelerate the program (Figure 3). The two-phase program has been revised to a total of 25,000 metres, comprising both reverse circulation (RC) and diamond drilling The Phase 2 program is designed to test and extend the Inferred Resource of the high-grade Burbanks Main and Birthday Gift Lodes from the current depth of 250 metres below surface to up to 450 metres below surface. The company noted that access to neighbouring tenements held by Auric Mining was required to support optimal drill positioning, given the steeply dipping geometry of the orebody and the limited width of Maritana's own tenure. This access has been secured, allowing drill collars to be stepped back to test the mineralisation at depth. Figure 3: - Phase 2 drilling commenced on Burbanks Main and Birthday Gift Lodes. Second drill rig mobilised MRE Underway All assay results from Burbanks North drilling have been received. The company has stated that an updated Mineral Resource Estimate is now underway and scheduled for completion in the June 2026 quarter. Ore Reserve studies based on the improved confidence in resource classification from Inferred to Indicated will then follow. From a project assessment perspective, the importance of Phase 2 is that Burbanks underground was not included in the Black Swan Processing Hub Scoping Study. The release describes this as significant upside potential to the current LOM plan, which is targeted to produce 100,000 ounces of gold per annum over an initial period of five years. The Phase 2 drilling is the work program designed to test whether the depth extension can carry the high grades reported from Phase 1. Management Commentary — Phase 2 Commencement “Maritana's Phase 1 drilling at the Burbanks Gold Project has reaffirmed the high-grade nature of the mineralised system and increased our geological confidence in the deposit. "Our Phase 2 program is the next step to accelerating our exploration and development strategy for the Project, improving our current mine plan to feed the Black Swan Processing Hub.” — Grant Haywood, Managing Director and CEO, Maritana Minerals Limited (14 May 2026) Burbanks South: A Second Target Area Opens Up Alongside the Phase 2 deep drilling, Maritana has initiated exploration activity at Burbanks South, an area targeting high-grade shallow gold mineralisation. The 14 May 2026 release noted that preliminary observations from recent drilling indicate the presence of shearing and quartz veining consistent with the structural controls observed at Burbanks North. The company reported that the area is supported by numerous historic workings that highlight its prospectivity, but that limited shallow drilling completed to date means the extent and continuity of mineralisation remains largely untested. Follow-up RC drilling is being planned to test mineralisation along strike, with geological modelling underway to refine targets. Burbanks South remains at the target-generation stage. The next test is whether follow-up RC drilling can confirm a structural and grade footprint that justifies elevating it to a defined target along the broader Burbanks corridor. Kanowna East: A Strategic Tenement Swap with Accelerate Resources On 19th May, Maritana Resources executed a dual tenement transaction with Accelerate Resources Limited (ASX: AX8). Under the agreements, Maritana will acquire Accelerate's Kanowna East tenure package and will divest its own Balagundi tenure package to Accelerate. The acquired Kanowna East package comprises twelve tenements, including five granted tenements (E27/596, E27/700, E27/704, P27/2428 and E27/752) in which Accelerate holds a 70% interest with Metal Hawk holding the remaining 30%, and seven tenements in application (E27/743, E27/750, E27/754, P27/2642, P27/2643, P27/2644 and P27/2645) in which Accelerate holds a 100% rights-in-application interest. The acquired ground is described by the company as proximal to its existing Kalgoorlie operations, including the Gordon's Dam Project and the Black Swan Processing Hub (Figure 4). Figure 4: Greater tenement area around Black Swan Operations, showing the acquired Kanowna East tenements (green), the existing Gordon's Dam Project, the Wilsons Prospect and the Black Swan Processing Hub. (Source: Maritana MRT ASX announcement 19 May, 2026) Net consideration under the transaction comprises A$200,000 payable in Maritana shares, calculated as the greater of 133,333 shares or shares worth A$200,000 based on Maritana's five-day VWAP before execution. The cash consideration payable under each sale agreement is A$60,000, with the two amounts effectively set off against each other. Completion of the transaction is expected in the June 2026 quarter, and the acquired tenements will be incorporated into Maritana's FY2027 exploration strategy. A 1% net smelter return royalty applies to all minerals extracted from each side of the transaction, granted in favour of the divesting party. This is a standard royalty structure for tenement transactions of this type and ensures both parties retain a financial interest in any future production from the ground they have transferred. Balagundi: Divestment Preserves Optionality on Future Toll Treatment The Balagundi tenure package divested to Accelerate comprises seventeen tenements held by Kalgoorlie Ore Treatment Company Pty Ltd, all of which are granted. The release described Balagundi as non-core to Maritana's current Kalgoorlie operating district. The divestment removes ongoing exploration expenditure commitments from a part of the portfolio that does not fit the company's current operational focus. Importantly, Maritana has retained a structural right over future toll treatment of Balagundi ore at the Black Swan Processing Hub. Under the Balagundi sale agreement, Accelerate has been granted a five-year right of first refusal in respect of future toll treatment opportunities at Black Swan, subject to the terms of the agreement. Maritana has also granted Accelerate the benefit of the existing Land Use Agreement with the Applicants for the Marlinyu Ghoorlie Native Title Claim. The practical effect is that if Accelerate progresses Balagundi toward development, Maritana has structural exposure to that ore as a potential future feed source for Black Swan. The company has framed this as preserving strategic optionality without continuing to carry the asset on its balance sheet. Management Commentary — Kanowna East and Balagundi “This transaction reflects Maritana's disciplined approach to portfolio management. By acquiring the Kanowna East Project and divesting the Balagundi tenure, we are consolidating our landholdings around the Black Swan Processing Hub, while rationalising assets that are better suited to a party with the scale and intent to advance them. "Importantly, the right of first refusal we have retained over future toll treatment at Black Swan preserves exposure to a potential future ore source and revenue stream open for Maritana shareholders, should Balagundi progress to development. We consider this a sensible, value-accretive outcome for both companies.” — Grant Haywood, Managing Director and CEO, Maritana Minerals Limited (19 May 2026) Black Swan Processing Hub: The Operating Anchor The Black Swan Processing Hub is the central asset around which Maritana's standalone gold producer strategy is built. The plant is located approximately 50 kilometres north-east of Kalgoorlie in Western Australia and has a nameplate capacity of 2.2Mtpa (Figure 5). It is currently in care and maintenance, having previously operated as a nickel sulphide flotation facility. Figure 5: Maritana's project locations, regional geology and surrounding infrastructure, including the Accelerate Resources tenement acquisitions. (Source: Maritana Minerals ASX announcement dated 19 May 2026) The Black Swan Scoping Study released by the company on 17 February 2026 supports a conversion of the existing comminution circuit to gold processing with the addition of a carbon-in-leach (CIL) circuit. The estimated replacement value of the existing infrastructure is more than A$200 million, against a stated capital cost of A$101 million for the plant refurbishment and approximately A$160.5 million in total pre-production capital. Capital intensity is approximately A$1,500 per ounce. Headline study outcomes include average production of 102,000 ounces per annum, life-of-mine production of 546,000 ounces over five years, C1 cash cost of A$2,852 per ounce, all-in sustaining cost of A$3,353 per ounce, and a project pre-tax NPV8 of approximately A$631 million at an A$5,500 per ounce base case gold price. The study reported an IRR of 83% and a payback period of 18 months from plant commissioning. Maritana is fully funded for the refurbishment and the commencement of mining and processing through an A$175 million placement completed in February 2026, a A$4.65 million Share Purchase Plan completed in March 2026, and existing cash and listed investments. The company reported A$114.1 million in cash and cash equivalents as at 6 March 2026, with no debt. Near-Term Milestones to Watch The following near-term milestones have been disclosed across the three ASX announcements and the April 2026 investor presentation: Table 3: Near-term milestones Activity Timing Status / Source Burbanks Phase 1 remaining assays (final 4 holes including 26HBBD052 and 26HBBD053) Underway Pending at time of release (4 May 2026 release) Burbanks North Mineral Resource Estimate update June 2026 quarter All Phase 1 assays received; MRE update to enable Inferred to Indicated reclassification (14 May 2026 release) Burbanks Phase 2 drilling — Main Lode and Birthday Gift Lodes from 250m to 450m below surface Underway Commenced; second rig mobilised (14 May 2026 release) Burbanks Ore Reserve studies Following MRE update To follow Inferred to Indicated reclassification (14 May 2026 release) Burbanks South RC drilling program Planned Geological modelling underway; follow-up RC drilling planned (14 May 2026 release) Kanowna East tenement acquisition completion June 2026 quarter Dual transaction with Accelerate Resources (19 May 2026 release) Kanowna East exploration integration FY2027 Acquired tenements to be incorporated into Maritana's FY2027 exploration strategy (19 May 2026 release) Black Swan FEED studies and Final Investment Decision (FID) Q2 CY2026 Per published Strategic Plan (April 2026 Investor Presentation) Black Swan plant construction Q3 CY2026 – Q2 CY2027 Per published Strategic Plan (April 2026 Investor Presentation) Black Swan first gold production Mid-2027 Per published Strategic Plan and Scoping Study (April 2026 Investor Presentation) Figure 6: Key Milestone and Timing for Black Swan Processing Hub (Source: Maritana Minerals Investor Presentation, April 2026) About Maritana Minerals Limited Maritana Minerals Limited (ASX: MRT) is a Western Australian gold developer positioning to become a standalone gold producer in the Kalgoorlie–Coolgardie region. The company holds a land package of approximately 1,167 square kilometres across the WA Goldfields and a Group Mineral Resource of 1.9 million ounces of gold (34.3Mt at 1.7g/t Au) across multiple deposits, including the cornerstone Burbanks and Boorara projects. The centrepiece of the company's strategy is the 2.2Mtpa Black Swan Processing Hub, located approximately 50 kilometres north-east of Kalgoorlie. The plant is currently in care and maintenance and is being refurbished and converted to gold processing, with the first gold targeted for mid-2027. Studies completed in February 2026 support the development of a gold operation producing more than 100,000 ounces per annum from the refurbished facility through a hub-and-spoke operating model. Maritana also holds the Nimbus Silver-Zinc deposit, located approximately 44 kilometres from Black Swan, which contains a Mineral Resource of 20.2 million ounces of silver, 104,000 tonnes of zinc and 77,000 ounces of gold and provides additional optionality across the portfolio. The company reported a market capitalisation of approximately A$332.8 million as at 14 April 2026, cash and cash equivalents of A$114.1 million as at 6 March 2026, and no debt. Maritana is fully funded for the refurbishment of Black Swan and the commencement of mining and gold production. Previous Samso News Coverage Samso has followed Maritana Minerals (formerly Horizon Minerals) across multiple ASX releases. The following represents our prior published coverage of the company: May 5, 2026 - October 8, 2025 - September 2, 2025 - August 21, 2025 - August 1, 2025 - July 27, 2025 - June 29, 2025 - Samso Concluding Comments The Maritana Minerals share price journey(Figure 7) is taking a decline over the last few months and this is not necessarily a reflection in the performance of the company but rather a reflection of the devaluing of the gold price (Figure 8), I think. If you look at the leaders in the sector such as Northern Star Resources Limited (ASX: NST), they are not fairing well too, coming off a high of almost AUD $32 to a recent price of AUD $18.83. Westgold Resources Limited (ASX: WGX) is coming of a high of just over AUD $8.00 to a current price of AUD $4.96. Figure 7: The Maritana Minerals Limited share price journey as of 22 May 2026. (Source: Commsec) There is definitely a sense of uneasiness in the sector and companies such as Maritana Minerals who are in the development phase are going to be vulnerable. Does this mean that there are going to be downgrades to come, I think the signs are definitely there but we all know that the market is always adjusting and the key for shareholders and potential investors is timing. Personally, with all the years of looking at the market in this sector, producers and aspiring producers are nearly always the first to reflect upturns and downturns. The gold price "run" is only really from September 2026 (Figure 8) and the monetary adjustments has only started. Are we going to see gold at thighs of over USD $5,000 again, I think this is a real possibility. When is that going to happen ? That is the million dollar question. We are starting to see the lithium price coming back. Lithium companies are restarting projects and the optimism in the air is getting moving. Nickel price which has been in the lows are starting to get headlines again. As we all know already, inflationary concerns are still the main topic of conversation and monetary policy controls are still very well alive. Figure 8: The gold price chart as of 25th May 2026. (Source: Trading Economics) In regards to companies like Maritana who have recently raised funds to proceed with development, this could well be a stocktake sale that serious investors should take seriously. Remember that investors tend to sell with a falling share price and buy on a rising tide. Maritana may not be a Northern Star at the moment but it definitely is a company that has gold to sell. Caution is the key word at the moment as Maritana is trading at a market capitalisation of just over AUD $260M as of 25th May 2026. I am sure that a business that has gold to sell when a resurgence of the gold price reappears, will be wroth more than its current level. The key is understanding of where that curve in Figure 8 is going to go in the next six months. Are we going to see more discounting and if so, is a series of accumulating the stock at a discounting price a good way or positioning yourself in a potential future gold producer. Cover photo: Gold panning on Jack Wade Creek (24785190007), BLM Alaska. Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Gold_panning_on_Jack_Wade_Creek_(24785190007).jpg) The Samso Way – Seek the Research Here at Samso, we pride ourselves on delivering content for investors that is independent and informed by over three decades of experience in the industry. Our content is well-researched and is only created if I see merit in discussing the company's story. Our mission is simple: cut through the noise and spotlight what matters—genuine stories, grounded insights, and real opportunity. Our content is well-researched and is only created if the team sees merit in discussing the company or concept. Investors can explore our three core platforms: Coffee with Samso Samso Insights Samso News There may be numerous paths to success in investing, but the common thread among successful individuals is that they remain committed to making informed decisions. Equip yourself with the right knowledge and tools, and you will be well on your way to achieving your financial goals. Most importantly, investors need to be absolutely diligent in understanding their own risk-reward tolerance and capabilities. Never bite off more than you can chew. As they say, Rome wasn’t built in a day, and the Great Wall stood because it took centuries to complete. The Samso Philosophy: Stay curious. Stay sharp. And remember—digging deeper always uncovers the real value. In Life, there is no such thing as a Free Lunch. Never bite off more than you can chew is my parting comment. 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Share to Grow: Your Bonus Samso has just released an eBook: How to Add Value to your Share Portfolio |A lesson on geological models sought by mining companies that gives insight and an understanding of which portfolios are better - and potentially more lucrative – investments. Click here to download this eBook.| Download eBook If you find this article informative and useful, please help me share the information. I try to write about topics that are interesting and have the potential to be of investment value. It is not easy to find stories that fit those parameters. If you or your organisation sees the benefit of what Samso is trying to achieve and has a need to share your journey, please contact me at noel.ong@samso.com.au. About Samso Samso is a trusted platform that equips dedicated investors with up-to-date industry knowledge and insigh0ts from top CEOs and thought leaders. 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Samso Market Update | Monday, 19 October 2026 | Market close 4:30pm AEDT The S&P/ASX 200 closed up 39.0 points or 0.44% at 8,845.7 on the ASX today. Cleanaway Waste Management rose 20.2% and Challenger 19.3%, each on a takeover proposal announced before the open. The All Ordinaries, which tracks the 500 largest listed companies, rose 0.39% to 8,975.7. The S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries, an index of the companies ranked 101 to 300 by size, fell 0.35% to 3,177.9. This morning's pre-market edition is below, and Friday's editions are at ASX today, Friday 16 October 2026. ASX today: Key Highlights The ASX 200 rose 0.44% to 8,845.7. Energy was the best sector, up 2.21%, and information technology the worst, down 1.31%. Cleanaway (ASX: CWY) rose 20.2% to A$2.97 on the day it agreed to a A$3.095 a share cash takeover by EQT Infrastructure. Challenger (ASX: CGF) rose 19.3% to A$11.75 on the day it announced a non-binding A$11.80 a share proposal from Daiichi Life. Coal miners rose. Yancoal gained 5.7%, Whitehaven Coal 5.2% and New Hope 5.8%, which announced it will buy Malabar Resources. More shares fell than rose. Of the 1,500 companies that traded and have a market value on the ASX, 490 rose, 639 fell and 371 were unchanged. China's economy grew 4.5% in the September quarter from a year earlier, against a 4.4% forecast, the ABC reported. Takeovers, sectors and Bendigo Bank Five takeover and acquisition announcements were made before the open. A scheme of arrangement is a takeover that shareholders vote on and a court must approve. Cleanaway, FleetPartners and RAS Technology signed binding schemes. Challenger received a non-binding proposal, which is an offer that is not yet a firm deal. New Hope agreed to buy the 74% of unlisted Malabar Resources it does not own. At 12:28pm the ABC reported that energy, banks and takeover activity, naming Challenger and Cleanaway, were lifting the market. Energy rose 2.21%, the best of the 11 sectors (Yahoo Finance data). Market Index reported at 2:00pm that coal miners were "sharply higher". Separately, it reported at 1:48pm that China's coal output fell 6.8% from a year earlier in September. Information technology fell 1.31%. Market Index reported at 11:43am that the sector fell 2.5% following the Nasdaq's 2.1% fall on Friday. NextDC (ASX: NXT) entered a trading halt at 9:33am AEDT. It said it needs to give a material update on the impact of a delay to power supply at its M3 Melbourne data centre, including on FY27 guidance. Bendigo and Adelaide Bank (ASX: BEN) fell 4.0% to A$10.13 on the day of its first quarter trading update. The ABC quoted J.P. Morgan's Andrew Triggs, a bank analyst, who wrote that the result "looks a little soft on NIM/revenue". Blue Chips (above A$1 billion) Samso's four size bands use market value at Friday's close. They are not the S&P/ASX indices of the same names. Gainers. Cleanaway Waste Management (ASX: CWY) rose 20.24% to A$2.97 on turnover of A$625 million. It signed a scheme with Sedum Group, owned by funds managed or advised by EQT, at A$3.095 cash a share less any dividends paid. Cleanaway said that implies an enterprise value of about A$9.3 billion. The shares closed 12.5 cents below the A$3.095 offer price. Benz Mining (ASX: BNZ) rose 19.46% to A$4.85 on the day it reported more drill results from its Icon gold project, including 46 metres downhole at 6.5 grams of gold a tonne from 454 metres. Challenger (ASX: CGF) rose 19.29% to A$11.75. Daiichi Life, which owns 20.5% of Challenger, proposed to buy the rest at A$11.80 a share. The proposal is subject to due diligence and other conditions, and Challenger's board is considering it. FleetPartners Group (ASX: FPR) rose 7.13% to A$5.11 on the day it signed a A$5.30 cash a share scheme with SG Fleet. Ingenia Communities (ASX: INA) rose 7.07% to A$4.24, with no ASX announcement since Friday afternoon. New Hope Corporation (ASX: NHC) rose 5.82% to A$6.18. It will issue 0.5 of its shares for each Malabar share, under a scheme that Malabar shareholders vote on. Fallers. Mesoblast (ASX: MSB) fell 11.06% to A$1.77 on turnover of A$17.9 million, with no ASX announcement since Friday afternoon. Tasmea (ASX: TEA) fell 6.90% to A$9.31. Market Index reported at 1:01pm that engineering stocks were lower, naming Tasmea. Its annual report was released at 3:38pm. 4DMedical (ASX: 4DX) fell 5.38% to A$3.87 and Infratil (ASX: IFT) 5.28% to A$9.87. 4DMedical's only ASX announcement since Friday afternoon was a share quotation notice. Infratil had none. Stockland (ASX: SGP) fell 4.02% to A$4.06 on the day of its first quarter operational update and annual meeting. Mid Caps (A$500 million to A$1 billion) Gainers. Tuas (ASX: TUA) rose 5.18% to A$1.725, with no ASX announcement since Friday afternoon. Amplitude Energy (ASX: AEL) rose 3.88% to A$1.875 on the day it released its first quarter report. Nanosonics (ASX: NAN) rose 3.85% to A$2.97 and St Barbara (ASX: SBM) 3.77% to A$0.825. Neither had an ASX announcement since Friday afternoon other than a buy-back update from Nanosonics. Fallers. Weebit Nano (ASX: WBT) fell 7.64% to A$2.66 on the day it released an investor update. Market Index named it among the technology fallers. Deep Yellow (ASX: DYL) fell 6.10% to A$0.77, Alpha HPA (ASX: A4N) 5.56% to A$0.425 and Elevra Lithium (ASX: ELV) 5.49% to A$3.79. SKS Technologies Group (ASX: SKS) fell 5.07% to A$6.56. None of the four had a price-sensitive ASX announcement since Friday afternoon. Small Caps (A$150 million to A$500 million) Gainers. Wrkr (ASX: WRK) rose 12.5% to A$0.09 on turnover of A$146,000. Astron (ASX: ATR) rose 9.48% to A$0.635 on turnover of A$54,000, and Sky Metals (ASX: SKY) 9.38% to A$0.175. Dateline Resources (ASX: DTR) rose 9.21% to A$0.083 on turnover of A$1.0 million. None of the four had an ASX announcement since Friday afternoon. Fallers. Stakk (ASX: SKK) fell 20.83% to A$0.019, from A$0.024, on turnover of A$2.3 million. It announced that its agreement with Chime Financial, a material client, was extended to 31 December 2027 on unchanged terms. Tetratherix (ASX: TTX) fell 11.55% to A$5.36 and Nova Minerals (ASX: NVA) 11.24% to A$0.395. Cobre (ASX: CBE) fell 10.53% to A$0.255 on the day it named a new chair. Terra Metals (ASX: TM1) fell 10.0% to A$0.135, with no ASX announcement since Friday afternoon. Samso covered Terra Metals and its Southwest discovery in September. Micro Caps (below A$150 million) Gainers. RAS Technology Holdings (ASX: RTH) rose 85.19% to A$1.00. It signed a scheme with The Press Association, part of the UK's PA Media Group, at A$1.04 cash a share, a 93% premium to Friday's close of A$0.54. AXP Energy (ASX: AXP) rose 66.67% to A$0.005, from A$0.003, on turnover of A$149,000. In reply to an ASX price query, a letter asking a company to explain an unusual price move, AXP said it was not aware of any information that could explain the trading. Skylark Minerals (ASX: SKM) rose 19.51% to A$0.245. It reported that the Mineral Resource Estimate at its Zaranou gold project in Côte d'Ivoire rose 228% to 1.20 million ounces. A Mineral Resource Estimate is a company's measure of how much metal it believes is in the ground. Eminence Minerals (ASX: EMA) rose 15.56% to A$0.052 on the day it secured exclusivity over a Côte d'Ivoire gold portfolio. Alvo Minerals (ASX: ALV) rose 12.79% to A$0.097 on turnover of A$4.9 million, with no ASX announcement since Friday afternoon. Fallers. Infinity Mining (ASX: IMI) fell 28.57% to A$0.005 on turnover of A$70,000, with no ASX announcement since Friday afternoon. At prices this low, a move of a fraction of a cent is a large percentage. Albion Resources (ASX: ALB) fell 14.52% to A$0.053 on the day it announced a A$1.8 million placement to fund gold exploration at Gidgee. Vertex Minerals (ASX: VTX) fell 11.82% to A$0.097 on the day of an operational update on its Reward gold mine. Black Bear Minerals (ASX: BKB) fell 11.24% to A$0.395 and Australian Vanadium (ASX: AVL) 10.53% to A$0.17, with no price-sensitive ASX announcement since Friday afternoon. Commodities and Currency Prices between 4:21pm and 4:33pm AEDT (Yahoo Finance data), compared with the figures in this morning's edition. Front-month gold futures were at US$4,196.40 an ounce, up from US$4,181.10. Front-month copper futures were at US$6.61 a pound, up from US$6.57. Brent crude futures were at US$108.00 a barrel, down from US$109.86. Iron ore was last reported at US$91.20 a tonne on Friday, up 1.5% (ABC News). Samso found no Monday price by the close. The Australian dollar was buying 69.76 US cents at 4:32pm AEDT, up from 69.63 US cents at 8:44am AEDT. Samso Concluding Comments The ASX 200 rose 0.44% to 8,845.7. Five takeover and acquisition announcements were made before the open, and Cleanaway and Challenger each rose about 20%. Energy led the sectors, technology fell, and 639 companies fell against 490 that rose. Cleanaway, Challenger and energy shares rose while most shares and the Small Ordinaries fell. NextDC remains in a trading halt until its update on the M3 power delay, due by Wednesday's open at the latest. General information only. This is not financial advice. Samso Market Update | Monday, 19 October 2026 | Pre-market 9:45am AEDT Futures point to a slightly lower open on the ASX today. ASX 200 futures were down 0.1% at 8,826 points at about 7:00am AEDT, according to the ABC News market snapshot. A futures contract is an agreement to buy or sell at a set price on a later date, and its price is used as a guide to where the index will open. The 0.1% fall is measured on the futures contract, not against Friday's index close. The S&P/ASX 200 closed on Friday at 8,806.7, up 87.0 points or 1.00%. The All Ordinaries, which tracks the 500 largest listed companies, rose 1.13% to 8,940.4. The S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries, an index of the companies ranked 101 to 300 by size, rose 2.20% to 3,189.2. Friday's editions are at ASX today, Friday 16 October 2026, and Thursday's are at ASX today, Thursday 15 October 2026. ASX today: Key Highlights ASX 200 futures were down 0.1% at 8,826 at about 7:00am AEDT (ABC News). The Nasdaq Composite fell 2.15% and the S&P 500 fell 1.09% on Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.34%. Brent crude futures settled at US$109.86 a barrel, up 3.7%, the highest settlement since May according to FinanceFeeds. The Nikkei 225 rose 1.39% on Friday but fell 5.37% over the week, according to Trading Economics. China releases its third-quarter growth figures today, according to the ABC. The market forecast is 4.4% (Seoul Economic Daily). Wall Street overnight Wall Street finished lower on Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 175.28 points or 0.34% to 52,002.41. The S&P 500 fell 84.62 points or 1.09% to 7,659.44. The Nasdaq Composite fell 573.00 points or 2.15% to 26,140.03. The Russell 2000, an index of smaller US companies, fell 1.66% to 2,721.37. The ABC reported "growing anxiety of the debt financing of the AI boom and whether the massive investment will deliver decent returns." NAB senior FX strategist Rodrigo Catril, quoted by the ABC, called the fall "a reassessment of the economics underpinning the AI investment boom." The ABC reported that CoreWeave, which runs data centres, fell 12% on Friday and about 25% over the week. TheStreet reported that energy shares rose 2.52% with the rise in oil prices. The US 10-year Treasury yield was at approximately 5.10% late in the New York session, up about 1 basis point from Thursday (Yahoo Finance data). A Treasury is a US government bond. A bond yield is the yearly return from buying a government bond at today's price and holding it until it is repaid, and when yields rise, bond prices fall. A basis point is one hundredth of a percentage point. Japan The Nikkei 225 closed on Friday at 65,324.29, up 898.34 points or 1.39%. Trading Economics reported that selling of technology shares eased, after TSMC reported a record third-quarter profit and Nvidia chief executive Jensen Huang defended CoreWeave's financial health. It named Lasertec (up 5.1%) and Kioxia (up 3.8%) among the gainers. The index fell 5.37% over the week, its steepest weekly fall since July, according to Trading Economics. The US dollar was buying approximately 157.97 yen at 8:46am AEDT. Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 0.52% and the Shanghai Composite rose 0.24% on Friday. London and Europe London's FTSE 100 closed on Friday at 10,881.90, up 41.50 points or 0.38% (Yahoo Finance data). Germany's DAX rose 0.95% to 25,622.61. France's CAC 40 rose 0.28% to 7,956.70. Currencies The Australian dollar was buying approximately 69.6 US cents at 8:44am AEDT, up 0.64% from Friday's session. The ABC quoted Barclays saying it was bullish on the Australian dollar and that "Australia remains a key beneficiary of the AI commodity supercycle." The US dollar index, which measures the US dollar against six major currencies, was at approximately 101.78 late in the New York session on Friday, down 0.22%. The euro was at approximately US$1.119. Commodities Brent crude futures for the front month, the contract that falls due soonest, settled on Friday at US$109.86 a barrel, up US$3.94 or 3.7%. Brent briefly touched US$110, its highest since May, according to the ABC. West Texas Intermediate, the US oil benchmark, settled at US$101.41 a barrel for November delivery, up 3.5% (ABC News, FinanceFeeds). FinanceFeeds reported that a Saudi-led coalition said it intercepted a ballistic missile aimed at the Red Sea export port of Yanbu, and that a Ukrainian drone strike shut a main unit at a large Russian refinery. Gold futures for December settled at US$4,181.10 an ounce, up 0.26% (Yahoo Finance data). Silver futures for December rose 0.82% to US$57.31 an ounce. Copper futures for December rose 0.95% to US$6.5735 a pound. The ABC reported that copper fell over the week as the end of a strike at a large Chilean mine eased supply concerns. Iron ore rose 1.5% to US$91.20 a tonne on Friday, according to the ABC News market snapshot (prices at about 7:00am AEDT). Today's diary All times AEDT. No Australian Bureau of Statistics releases are scheduled today (ABS release calendar). Reserve Bank Assistant Governor (Financial Markets) Christopher Kent is due to speak, according to the ABC. No time was given. 1:00pm. China's third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP), the total value of goods and services an economy produces in a period, with September retail sales, industrial production and fixed asset investment (Trading Economics calendar, 02:00 UTC). The market forecast for third-quarter growth is 4.4% (Seoul Economic Daily). Samso Concluding Comments ASX 200 futures were down 0.1% at about 7:00am AEDT. On Friday the Nasdaq fell 2.15%, with the ABC and NAB linking the fall to concern over the cost and returns of AI investment, and Brent crude rose 3.7% to US$109.86 a barrel. China's third-quarter growth figures at 1:00pm AEDT are the main scheduled item today. General information only. This is not financial advice.

Rooster Talk Episode 61 is with Matthew Boyes, Managing Director of Red Dirt Metals Limited (ASX: RDT). The Mt Ida project is fast becoming a double bonus for Red Dirt Metals as exploration is unveiling the gold credits. When we were first introduced to the Mt. Ida project (Red Dirt Metals Limited (ASX:RDT) - A Lithium Gem within a Gold Mine.) in April 2022, we were just trying to understand the lithium potential. As the market was having a lithium boom, it would be foolish not to discuss what the flavour of the last two years has been. As we were talking through that Coffee with Samso with Matt Boyes, I was really interested in the gold potential. The Mt Ida story is very similar to what occurred at Mt. Holland a few years ago. For those that have not heard the story, Mt Holland was all about the discovery of a lithium bonanza because of a phone call. Mt. Holland was a legitimate gold mining project but was later discovered to be an even greater lithium project. When you hear Matt talk about the lithium prospectivity in Mt. Ida, you can hear the frustration of not being able to rush into the gold project. The potential is yet to be finalised. In saying that, you can also feel the frustration of not being able to unwrap the potential of the lithium prospectivity. The fact that there is still a large package of landholding that the company has not explored is definitely high on the list of things to do. Matt is certain that there will be a resource coming out for the lithium and in time, there will be a gold resource to be released as well. When that will be is the million dollar question. Check out this video - this is definitely a good story to follow. Chapters: 00:00 Start. 00:20 Introduction. 01:07 Matthew updates. 02:38 Relationship between Gold and Lithium. 03:56 Mineralisation of Lithium and Gold. 06:41 Announcement key points for investors. 08:18 Understanding the geology from the announcement. 10:35 Future plans for the project. 11:59 Lithium market discussion. 15:24 Updates on covering the entire tenement package. 16:57 Potential focus on Gold. 19:49 Exploration potential. 21:32 Matthew summarises the news flow. 22:54 Conclusions. PODCAST This is a good time to download the first Ebook (FREE) from Samso as it is all about VMS (Volcanogenic Massive Sulfides). About Matthew Boyes Managing Director Mr Boyes is a qualified Geologist and Fellow of the Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy with 25 years industry experience and a strong background in minerals resources, project development, construction and operations management. Mr Boyes has recently served as COO for AIM listed Patagonia Gold successfully overseeing the development and construction of two standalone Gold-Silver heap leach projects in southern Argentina. Mr Boyes has significant experience in product evaluations and financing with a focus on the junior market sector. About Red Dirt Metals Limited (ASX: RDT) Red Dirt is focused on the development and evaluation of underexplored brownfields exploration assets in Western Australia. Mt Ida Gold Pty Ltd is the holding company of the Mt Ida Gold Project, comprising 19 tenements in the historical Mt Ida gold mining district, located approximately 100km north-west of Menzies in the WA goldfields. The project tenements cover an area of 155km2 and include the historic Timoni Gold Mine and others, which have produced greater than 300,000 oz gold at 17.2 g/t head grade. Highlights: Acquired from Ora Banda Mining in September 2021 for $11M cash A current gold resource of 318,000 t @13.8g/t gold for 141koz calculated under the JORC 2004 guidelines Evidence of occurrences of Lithium-bearing pegmatites with Tantalum Exploration activities to commence immediately October 2021 The Mt Ida project has total resources of 318,000 t @13.8g/t of gold for 141koz, Indicated resources total 136,000t @ 18.6 g/t gold for 81koz with 182,000t @ 10.3 g/t gold for 60koz in Inferred category. All resource currently stated at Mt Ida are calculated under the JORC 2004 guidelines with no material change to the existing resources since estimation. Lithium Review: Whilst undertaking the technical due diligence of the Mt Ida Project, it was noted that multiple high-grade lithium intervals had been intersected within pegmatite bodies on the western contact of the main Mt Ida granite intrusive, known as the Copperfield Granite. Initial investigations from available data shows pegmatite outcropping in 5 separate locations proximal to the main granitic intrusive, and along the contact with the western bounding mafic amphibolite units which host the high-grade Mt Ida gold copper lodes. A preliminary target corridor has been interpreted and extends for up to 5 km in strike from the most southern-identified outcrop parallel to the granite and north into the Company’s adjacent exploration tenement, with potential to extend further in both directions. Of significance is that no historic exploration has been carried out with the intention of targeting these Lithium bearing pegmatite intrusives. This opens up large areas on both the eastern and western limbs of the granitic intrusive contacts for future exploration and will complement the Company’s aggressive gold/copper exploration program at the Mt Ida Project. Disclaimer The information or opinions provided herein do not constitute investment advice, an offer or solicitation to subscribe for, purchase or sell the investment product(s) mentioned herein. It does not take into consideration, nor have any regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation, risk profile, tax position and particular, or unique needs and constraints. Read full Disclaimer. About Samso Keep us informed too! Please let us know your thoughts and send us any comments to info@samso.com.au. Remember to Subscribe to our YouTube Channel, Samso Media and our mail list to stay informed and make comments where appropriate. Other than that, you can also give us a Review on Google.

Coffee with Samso Episode 135 is with Matthew Boyes, Managing Director of Red Dirt Metals Limited (ASX: RDT). I first spoke to Matthew Boyes, Managing Director of Red Dirt Metals Limited (ASX: RDT) in May 2021 when the company was known then as TNT Mines Limited. That was the first Coffee with Samso for Matthew and we spoke about the direction of the company then. Check out the Coffee with Samso: The Remaking of the Eureka Gold Mine - TNT Mines Limited (ASX: TIN) - Episode 86 Since the acquisition of the Mt Ida project in September 2021 (Mt Ida Acquisition, Capital Raise and Presentation), the company has rebranded themselves and is now on the greater path of developing a Lithium project. The company completed the transaction on 24th September 2021 (Completion of Mt Ida Acquisition). In this episode of Coffee with Samso, Matthew gives us an insight into the story of Mt. Ida. The movement in share price and hence, market capitalisation has been remarkable. However, at the moment of writing this, the value of AUD212M according to Matthew, seems to be undervalued. The project brings back recollection of the Mt Holland story, but time will tell if the Mt. Ida lithium story will bring similar fortunes for shareholders of Red Dirt Metal. Chapters: 00:00 Start 00:20 Introduction 01:07 The Mt Ida Story 05:28 What kind of grade does hard rock lithium project need in relation to Red Dirt? 08:36 Advantages of drilling for pegmatites. 10:19 How much of the project has been drilled? 12:22 Can you see consistencies in the geology of the pegmatites? 14:01 What should people look for to understand the Red Dirt Story? 15:32 Explaining the significance of LCT pegmatites. 17:22 Are the proportions of LCT positive or negative? 19:02 What could throw a spanner in the works? 20:21 Is there a type deposit happening in the Lithium industry? 22:32 How does Matthew take this Lithium market? 24:06 Is there such a term as a good or bad lithium project? 25:51 How should investors temper their expectations on the Red Dirt Story? 27:21 The lack of information is mutual. 28:21 Mt Ida is a Gold project too. 31:19 How does the gold sit spatially to the lithium? 32:56 Where does the Gold project sit on the list of things to do? 33:43 News flow. 35:16 What are the brokers saying about RDT? 36:04 How big can Mt Ida be? What is your pitch to Investors out there? 37:36 Samso's thoughts. 38:10 Conclusions PODCAST This is a good time to download the first Ebook (FREE) from Samso as it is all about VMS (Volcanogenic Massive Sulfides). About Matthew Boyes - Managing Director Mr Boyes is a qualified Geologist and Fellow of the Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy with 25 years industry experience with a strong background in minerals resources, project development, construction and operations management. Mr Boyes has recently served as COO for AIM listed Patagonia Gold successfully overseeing the development and construction of two standalone Gold-Silver heap leach projects in southern Argentina. Mr Boyes has significant experience in product evaluations and financing with a focus on the junior market sector. About Red Dirt Metals Limited (ASX: RDT) Red Dirt is focused on the development and evaluation of underexplored brownfields exploration assets in Western Australia. Mt Ida Gold Pty Ltd is the holding company of the Mt Ida Gold Project, comprising 19 tenements in the historical Mt Ida gold mining district, located approximately 100km north-west of Menzies in the WA goldfields. The project tenements cover an area of 155km2 and include the historic Timoni Gold Mine and others, which have produced greater than 300,000 oz gold at 17.2 g/t head grade. Highlights: Acquired from Ora Banda Mining in September 2021 for $11M cash A current gold resource of 318,000 t @13.8g/t gold for 141koz calculated under the JORC 2004 guidelines Evidence of occurrences of Lithium-bearing pegmatites with Tantalum Exploration activities to commence immediately October 2021 The Mt Ida project has total resources of 318,000 t @13.8g/t of gold for 141koz, Indicated resources total 136,000t @ 18.6 g/t gold for 81koz with 182,000t @ 10.3 g/t gold for 60koz in Inferred category. All resource currently stated at Mt Ida are calculated under the JORC 2004 guidelines with no material change to the existing resources since estimation. Lithium Review: Whilst undertaking the technical due diligence of the Mt Ida Project, it was noted that multiple high-grade lithium intervals had been intersected within pegmatite bodies on the western contact of the main Mt Ida granite intrusive, known as the Copperfield Granite. Initial investigations from available data shows pegmatite outcropping in 5 separate locations proximal to the main granitic intrusive, and along the contact with the western bounding mafic amphibolite units which host the high-grade Mt Ida gold copper lodes. A preliminary target corridor has been interpreted and extends for up to 5 km in strike from the most southern-identified outcrop parallel to the granite and north into the Company’s adjacent exploration tenement, with potential to extend further in both directions. Of significance is that no historic exploration has been carried out with the intention of targeting these Lithium bearing pegmatite intrusives. This opens up large areas on both the eastern and western limbs of the granitic intrusive contacts for future exploration and will complement the Company’s aggressive gold/copper exploration program at the Mt Ida Project. Disclaimer The information or opinions provided herein do not constitute investment advice, an offer or solicitation to subscribe for, purchase or sell the investment product(s) mentioned herein. It does not take into consideration, nor have any regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation, risk profile, tax position and particular, or unique needs and constraints. Read full Disclaimer. About Samso Keep us informed too! Please let us know your thoughts and send us any comments to info@samso.com.au. Remember to Subscribe to our YouTube Channel, Samso Media and our mail list to stay informed and make comments where appropriate. Other than that, you can also give us a Review on Google.

Japan spent three decades in near-zero growth after its property bubble burst in 1991, and only in the last two years has a genuine recovery finally taken hold. China's property bubble has been bursting since 2021, its debt is harder to see clearly than Japan's ever was, and Beijing has already legislated against a threat, AI-driven job losses, that Washington is still only debating. What the gap between the two economies means for where the next decade of ASX-relevant growth is likely to land is the question this piece sets out to answer. Samso Insights Macro & Geopolitical China AI & Capital READING THE SERIES This piece runs in two parts. Part 1, this piece. Sets out the macro case: Japan's precedent, China's property crisis, its debt structure, the population decline and the AI-jobs tension arriving at the same time. Part 2. Looks at where the capital is actually flowing, and the ASX and TSX-listed tungsten, tin, copper and iron ore producers on the other side of that trade. WHAT THIS PIECE COVERS 1.00 THE ONLY PRECEDENT ON RECORD What happened to Japan after 1991, and why it is the only comparison available. 2.00 THE MEGACITY PLAN The 2013 plan to move 250 million people into cities, and what has replaced it. 3.00 THE PROPERTY CRISIS Where the developer collapse now stands, legally and economically. 4.00 THE UNFINISHED CITIES How much was overbuilt, and why nobody agrees on the number. 5.00 TWO WAYS TO OWE MONEY Japan's debt is measured. China's is a range, and the range is the problem. 6.00 THE POPULATION THAT ISN'T COMING The cities are growing while the country is shrinking. 7.00 AI ARRIVES AT THE SAME MOMENT What Beijing is legislating against, and the jobs question underneath it. 8.00 WHAT THE FORECASTS ACTUALLY SAY A managed slowdown, with the weak point named by the forecasters themselves. 9.00 WHERE THIS LEAVES THE READER The slower path, the harder path, and what decides which one China gets. A note on the vocabulary and the sources. Technical and mining terms are explained in plain English where they first appear, and all of them are collected in one box at the back. Every source carries an identifier, [R1] to [R50], and that identifier appears in the body text at the point the source is used, so any figure can be traced to where it came from. 1.00 — THE ONLY PRECEDENT ON RECORD Japan already ran this experiment once In 1991, Japan's property bubble burst, and the country spent the next three decades in near-zero growth, near-zero inflation, and a debt load that climbed past 200% of GDP the entire time. It survived intact, no default, no collapse, and only in the last two years has a genuine recovery finally taken hold, with sustained inflation, real wage growth, and interest rates rising for the first time since the 1990s. Japan is the closest thing on record to a completed experiment in how a debt-fuelled property bubble plays out over thirty years (see FIG. 01). FIG. 01 — Japan's urban land price index, six largest cities, residential, indexed to the 1991 peak. Source: Japan Real Estate Institute data as reported by CEIC, on the index level through 2017 (the most recent year with a directly comparable published figure on this index series). *The 2026 point is Samso's own estimate, not a directly published index value on this series, based on Japan's Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism reporting nationwide land prices rising for a fifth consecutive year to March 2026, the strongest annual increase since 1992.[R37] China's property bubble started bursting in 2021, and by most of the measures that matter, investment, construction, sales, it is still falling. That alone would make the Japan comparison worth drawing. What sharpens it is that China is also carrying two pressures Japan never had to face at the same time, a population that is already shrinking rather than merely ageing, and an AI-driven threat to jobs that barely existed in any serious form during Japan's own lost decades. Beijing has already legislated against that threat, banning AI-driven dismissals and proposing automation caps, while Washington is still only debating whether to. This connects beyond China itself. China is now running the live version of the experiment Japan already completed, with fewer of Japan's advantages and at least two extra variables layered on top. Where that experiment lands, and how long it takes, matters directly to anyone trying to work out where the next decade of ASX-relevant growth is likely to come from. That's the question this piece, and Part 2 after it, is built to answer. 2.00 — THE MEGACITY PLAN Renewal has replaced expansion, but the assumptions haven't changed The idea that China would move 250 million rural residents into cities dates back to a 2013 State Council plan.[R1] The goal then was to get 70% of the population, roughly 900 million people, living in cities by 2025, up from about half at the time. The logic rested on one idea. Rural households in China are largely self-sufficient and consume little, so moving them into cities, and giving them city incomes and city habits, would create a domestic consumer base that doesn't depend on exports. That plan is now over a decade old, and China has moved on to a different phase. The 15th Five-Year Plan, covering 2026 to 2030, has shifted the language from expansion to renewal.[R2] The urban renewal campaign under that plan is expected to require at least 15 trillion yuan, around US$2.2 trillion, over five years, covering everything from pipelines and drainage to dilapidated housing and elderly-care facilities.[R3] Separately, Beijing has outlined a plan to fuse major cities into 19 megaregions, of which Hong Kong's Northern Metropolis project, linking into the wider Greater Bay Area, is one example already under construction (see FIG. 02).[R4] FIG. 02 — Shenzhen, seen from Hong Kong across the border, two of the cities being fused into the Greater Bay Area megaregion. Photo: Sparktour, Wikimedia Commons, 29 August 2019, CC BY-SA 4.0.[R28] The mechanism meant to make this work is reform of the hukou, China's household registration system.[R5] Historically, your hukou tied your access to schooling, healthcare and welfare to wherever you were officially registered, not wherever you actually lived, which is why migrant workers who moved to cities for decades often couldn't access the services those cities provided. Under the current urbanisation plan, rural residents face almost no restrictions moving to any city under 5 million people, and are promised the same entitlements as existing residents. That answers the access question. It doesn't fully answer the income question. Having the legal right to use a city service and having the income to make use of it are different things, and the plan is considerably stronger on the first than the second. There's also a quieter admission buried in the policy detail. Land supply is now meant to be linked to actual population flows. Cities gaining population get more land allocation, and cities losing population get less, or none. The Peterson Institute for International Economics, a credible source on this, notes that the government has effectively acknowledged there are two separate property markets in China.[R6] One is undersupplied, in top-tier cities with genuine housing affordability problems. The other is oversupplied, in lower-tier cities, some of which have become what's commonly called "ghost towns," built but never filled. That cuts against a simple story of Beijing building megacities and moving low-income households into them. What's actually happening is closer to Beijing trying to stop building in the places nobody wants to go, while concentrating what's left into a smaller number of winners. This mechanism has a name outside China too, and a much longer history than the current policy suggests. Western planners call it "rightsizing" or "shrinking cities" planning, and it has been standard practice in the United States and Germany for over twenty years, adopted for the identical fiscal reason.[R32] Youngstown, Ohio, drafted its "Youngstown 2010" plan in 2002, explicitly to stop building and maintaining infrastructure for a population that had fallen from 170,000 in 1930 to a fraction of that (see FIG. 03). Detroit, Flint, Buffalo and Cleveland followed with similar plans. Germany ran a national program called Schrumpfende Städte, shrinking cities, doing the same thing across the former East Germany after reunification, when large numbers of people left for the west. FIG. 03 — Youngstown, Ohio, whose population fell from around 170,000 in 1930 to a fraction of that, prompting the city's "Youngstown 2010" rightsizing plan in 2002, twenty years before China's own version of the same idea. Photo: Dblcut3, Wikimedia Commons, 6 August 2020, CC BY-SA 4.0.[R40] The core idea, concentrating services and infrastructure spending where people actually live rather than where they used to live, is identical in mechanism to what China's land-supply-follows-population-flow policy is doing. Beijing is applying a fiscal-discipline idea Western cities adopted decades ago, under very different political systems, for the same underlying reason. No government can afford to maintain infrastructure indefinitely for people who have already left. 3.00 — THE PROPERTY CRISIS A legal chapter closed in August. The economic one hasn't The urban renewal spending comes on top of a property sector that is still working through the largest developer crisis in China's modern history. Real estate's share of China's GDP fell to about 19% in 2024, down from a peak of 24% in 2018, according to Bloomberg Economics estimates.[R7] This is China's version of what happened to Japan in 1991, a debt-fuelled property boom running into its own weight, though it arrived three decades later and with a much larger economy underneath it. The headline event closed out this year. On 20 August 2026, a Shenzhen court sentenced Evergrande founder Hui Ka Yan to life imprisonment for financial crimes, and ordered the confiscation of his personal assets, following a guilty plea earlier in the year covering illegal fundraising, financial fraud, misuse of funds and bribery.[R8] A Guangzhou court has since accepted a bankruptcy liquidation case against Evergrande's mainland property development unit, which carried much of the group's roughly US$300 billion in total liabilities. Evergrande's own default in 2021 is the event that started the wider crisis, and its stock plunge dragged down other major developers including Country Garden and Kaisa (see FIG. 04). FIG. 04 — Evergrande-developed residential towers, still branded with the company's name, of the kind built across dozens of Chinese cities during the boom years. Photo: Windmemories, Wikimedia Commons, 5 March 2021, CC BY-SA 4.0.[R41] But the sentence closes a legal chapter, not an economic one. Property investment fell 19.2% in the first seven months of 2026, new construction starts dropped 24%, and sales of newly built commercial property fell 11.8% by floor area, according to Bloomberg reporting.[R9] Beijing has been easing its way out of the crisis rather than letting the market clear it on its own terms. In January 2026 it dropped the "three red lines" policy, the balance-sheet rules on developer borrowing that were originally what triggered Evergrande's collapse when they were introduced in 2020, and it's now leaning the other way, extending credit to help developers finish stalled projects.[R10] The state is trying to do two things that pull in different directions at once. It's winding down oversupply built during the boom years, while building new capacity in the cities it wants to grow. Whether the same low-income households the urbanisation plan is meant to serve can actually move between those two categories of city, from the ones losing population and land allocation to the ones gaining both, is the practical question the policy documents don't fully resolve. Samso Access Some of the work does not appear here Samso holds back a set of Insights for members. Same method as this piece, the same sourcing and the same counterweights, on companies and sectors that do not make the public feed. Every member-only Samso Insight unlocked Full access to the gated Insights archive New member-only pieces included as they publish Samso News, Coffee with Samso and Research Workups will join the gated set later. A$20 a month · cancel any time See what is inside → 4.00 — THE UNFINISHED CITIES Nobody, including Beijing, agrees on how much was overbuilt The oversupply mentioned above is physical. Rows of finished but empty apartment towers stand in one category, and apartments sold years ago and never finished at all stand in another. Nobody, including China's own statistics apparatus, has an agreed number for how much of this exists. He Keng, the former deputy head of China's National Bureau of Statistics, said at a public event reported by Reuters that estimates of the country's vacant housing stock vary wildly between experts, with some of the more extreme estimates suggesting there's enough vacant housing for 3 billion people.[R11] His own, more conservative assessment was that "1.4 billion people probably can't fill them," meaning the entire population of China, if every person needed a separate home, still wouldn't use up what's already built. The fact that a former senior statistics official is comfortable saying the real number is unknown tells you something about how large and how uncertain this problem is. One figure traces to a single, well-documented case. The Wall Street Journal has reported that of the roughly 1.2 million residential units Evergrande presold to buyers before construction was finished, about 800,000 remain unfinished.[R12] Those are homes people paid for, in some cases years ago, that still don't exist as habitable buildings (see FIG. 05). FIG. 05 — Unfinished apartment buildings in Maoming, Guangdong, representative of the stalled construction found across China's oversupplied lower-tier cities. Not a specific Evergrande site. Photo: 中少, Wikimedia Commons, 27 July 2021, CC BY-SA 4.0.[R29] Kenneth Rogoff, the Harvard economist, summed up the shape of it plainly on the Brookings Podcast in April 2026. China has "reached a classic overbuilding boom-bust," he said, and "it doesn't seem anywhere near the end."[R13] The single most widely reported case is Ordos, in Inner Mongolia, where the Kangbashi New Area was built with capacity for around 300,000 people and, years after completion, still housed only a fraction of that (see FIG. 06). FIG. 06 — The Ordos Museum in Kangbashi, Inner Mongolia, the single most widely reported example of a Chinese "ghost city," built for around 300,000 people with only a fraction of that number ever moving in. Photo: Popolon, Wikimedia Commons, 5 May 2015, CC BY-SA 4.0.[R43] This connects directly back to the urbanisation and renewal story above. Every yuan sunk into an apartment tower that never sold, or a development that was never finished, is capital that can't be recovered and can't be redirected into the megaregions Beijing now wants to build instead. It also helps explain why developers are in the state they're in, and why the state has had to step in with credit support rather than let the market clear the way it normally would. A construction boom that overbuilt this badly doesn't just waste money, it leaves the companies that did the building under too much financial strain to be reliable partners in the next phase of the plan. 5.00 — TWO WAYS TO OWE MONEY Japan's debt is enormous but known. China's is a range China's debt is often compared to Japan's, and the comparison is worth making properly, because the two situations look similar on the surface and are actually different underneath. This is also where the precedent from section 1.00 earns its keep. Japan's debt survived three decades of near-zero growth without a crisis for a specific, checkable reason, not luck, and whether China has the same protection is the real question behind this comparison. Japan carries the highest government debt load of any major economy, at roughly 204% of GDP by the IMF's 2026 estimate.[R14] That figure alone sounds alarming. What keeps it from being one is who holds it. Around 88% of Japan's government debt is held domestically, in yen, mostly by the Bank of Japan itself, which owns close to half of it outright, with most of the remainder held by Japanese banks and insurance companies. Foreign investors hold less than 10%. Japan's debt is recorded on a single, visible balance sheet, and the country that owes it and the institutions that hold it are, for the most part, the same country. That's the mechanism that let Japan wait out three decades of stagnation rather than default (see FIG. 07). FIG. 07 — The Bank of Japan's head office in Tokyo, the institution that holds close to half of Japan's government debt outright. Photo: yt_siden, Wikimedia Commons, 29 August 2011, CC BY-SA 2.0.[R38] China's debt is also mostly domestic and mostly denominated in its own currency, and that's significant, because it means China isn't exposed to the kind of crisis that hits countries which borrow heavily in foreign currency from foreign lenders, the pattern behind most emerging-market debt crises of the past forty years. On that specific point, China and Japan are more alike than different. Where they diverge is transparency. Japan's number is one number, and it's public. China's isn't, and nobody outside Beijing knows the real figure with confidence. The IMF estimated in 2025 that China's explicit local government debt reached 39% of GDP, around US$8 trillion, with a further 51% of GDP, about US$10.4 trillion, held in local government financing vehicles, known as LGFVs, entities that local governments set up specifically to borrow money outside the limits Beijing officially places on them.[R15] Add those two figures together and local government-linked debt alone approaches 90% of China's GDP, before the central government's own borrowing is counted. Other analysts, folding in a wider set of off-balance-sheet liabilities, put China's total public sector debt burden at 130% to 150% of GDP.[R16] S&P Global, assessing an earlier phase of the same problem, called China's hidden local debt "a debt iceberg with titanic credit risks."[R17] That range, a Fund estimate near 90% for local debt alone against outside analysts putting total public debt half again as high, is itself the point. Japan's debt is a single number. China's is a range. The risk also isn't spread evenly the way Japan's is. Guizhou, one of China's poorer provinces, carried LGFV debt close to 75% of its own provincial GDP, well past the 60% threshold Beijing has set as a warning line.[R18] Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Liaoning and Qinghai are in similar territory. Wealthier coastal provinces are in a completely different position. China doesn't have one debt problem, it has dozens of provincial-level debt problems of very different severity, stitched together under one national figure that obscures how serious the worst of them actually are (see FIG. 08). FIG. 08 — A highway bridge under construction in Guizhou, the kind of large-scale infrastructure project financed through local government debt in one of China's most indebted provinces relative to its own GDP. Photo: Glabb, Wikimedia Commons, 21 August 2011, CC BY-SA 3.0.[R39] Beijing knows this and is working on it. A 12 trillion yuan, around US$1.7 trillion, package rolled out in late 2024 is aimed at resolving officially recognised hidden local government debt by mid-2027, and it has already brought that specific category down.[R19] The harder problem is the roughly 14.8 trillion yuan of LGFV operational debt that remains, much of it in high-interest, non-standard loans that are proving harder to unwind than the debt Beijing has already dealt with. Japan and China both largely owe themselves rather than foreign creditors. The real difference is that Japan's debt is enormous but known, recorded on one balance sheet everyone can see, while China's is opaque, fragmented across thousands of local vehicles, and concentrated unevenly in provinces already under the most strain from the property downturn and the slower urbanisation this piece has been describing (see TABLE 01). A debt problem you can see and price is a very different kind of risk to one where even the people managing it aren't fully sure of its size. TABLE 01 — Japan and China's government debt compared Japan China Headline government debt ~204% of GDP (IMF, 2026 est.) ~68% of GDP (2026 est.) to ~77% of GDP (IMF, 2022); two different sources at two different points in time, not one consistent measure Once local vehicles are included Not applicable, one consolidated figure Local debt plus LGFVs sum to approximately 90% of GDP, Samso's own addition of two separate IMF component figures (39% plus 51%, 2025); broader outside estimates run to 130 to 150% of GDP Domestic ownership ~88% domestically held; Bank of Japan alone holds close to half Mostly domestic and yuan-denominated, but the true scale is disputed Foreign ownership Under 10% Comparatively low, though harder to verify given data opacity Distribution of risk Uniform, one national figure Highly uneven; several provinces (Guizhou, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Liaoning, Qinghai) exceed Beijing's own 60% provincial risk threshold Coffee with Samso The same companies, on the record Coffee with Samso is the interview series. Management answering questions in long form, so the people behind a project can be judged alongside the numbers in a piece like this one. Free to watch. Companies commission an interview, and it stays free to everyone, permanently. Watch the interviews → 6.00 — THE POPULATION THAT ISN'T COMING The cities are growing. The country isn't This is the part of the story that turns three separate headlines into one argument. China's population peaked in 2022 and has fallen every year since.[R20] The country is projected to lose around 3.2 million people in 2026 alone, more than the entire population of the US state of Arkansas, with annual losses accelerating through the 2030s and 2040s under the United Nations' median projection. China's working-age population, defined as ages 16 to 59, fell from 61.3% of the total population in 2023 to 60.9% in 2024, a drop to about 858 million people.[R21] The share of the population aged 60 and over was 22% in 2024 and is projected by China's own National Bureau of Statistics to reach 34.9% by 2050. FIG. 09 — China's population, actual and UN medium-variant projection, 2022 to 2100. The 2022, 2025 and 2050 points are as published by the UN Population Division, reported via Pew Research Center, RAND Corporation and worldpopulationclock.net [R21]. *The 2030 point (1.387 billion) is Samso's own calculation, subtracting a separately-published 2025-to-2030 decline estimate from the 2025 total, not a figure the UN published directly for that year. †The 2100 figure varies between published sources (roughly 630 to 640 million); this chart uses the midpoint. The urbanisation story Japan, South Korea and Britain went through in the 20th century relied on the overall population still growing while cities grew (see FIG. 09). China's does not. It's urbanisation running directly against demographic headwind. The closer comparison is what happened inside Japan after 1990, where a handful of major metropolitan areas kept growing and absorbing what population remained, while huge stretches of smaller cities and rural regions hollowed out. China appears to be trying to engineer that outcome deliberately, through the megaregion strategy and the land-allocation link to population flow, rather than let it happen by accident the way it did in Japan. 7.00 — AI ARRIVES AT THE SAME MOMENT Beijing is legislating against the risk it created The third force is the one that connects most directly back to jobs, and it is well documented, not speculative. China's National Bureau of Statistics reported youth unemployment, for people aged 16 to 24 excluding students, at 15.6% in May 2026, down from 16.9% in March, against a national headline rate of 5.1%.[R22] That's roughly three to four times the prime-age rate, and the gap holds up across every age bracket the NBS reports (see FIG. 10). FIG. 10 — China unemployment by age bracket, May 2026. *Excluding students. Source: China National Bureau of Statistics, as reported by hellochinatech.com [R22]. The clearest single line on why AI is central to this picture comes from inside China's own policy establishment, not from an outside critic. Cai Fang, a prominent labour economist, wrote that "job destruction often precedes and outweighs job creation."[R23] He went on to argue that while technological progress ultimately creates new jobs, the speed and scale of AI penetration and automation could produce long-term employment shocks, and called for more investment in human capital and social welfare protection in response. SAMSO TAKE Beijing is not pretending this risk doesn't exist. A Beijing court ruled last year that dismissing employees solely in order to replace them with AI is illegal, and courts in Hangzhou and Beijing have separately sided with laid-off tech workers in AI-related disputes.[R24] That's a government treating this as a live policy risk rather than a distant theoretical one (see FIG. 11). FIG. 11 — The Supreme People's Court in Beijing. Chinese courts have already ruled against employers dismissing staff specifically to replace them with AI. Photo: Pauloleong2002, Wikimedia Commons, 11 July 2023, CC BY-SA 4.0.[R44] SAMSO TAKE Policy proposals under discussion include capping automation-driven layoffs at 30% of a workforce in any single role, and requiring companies to reinvest a share of their automation cost savings into worker retraining, modelled partly on similar measures already in place in Spain, South Korea and Japan. The position this puts Beijing in is worth stating plainly. The government wants China to lead in AI adoption for the same reason every major economy does, because it drives productivity and competitiveness. But rapid AI adoption in exactly the labour-intensive manufacturing, logistics and services sectors that employ hundreds of millions of people is also the most obvious way to make the youth unemployment problem worse, in the same cities the urbanisation plan is trying to fill. Is Beijing's own labour-protection legislation strong enough to hold that tension for another five years, or does the maths eventually force a choice between the AI race and the employment numbers? This isn't only a Chinese preoccupation. Dario Amodei, the co-founder and chief executive of Anthropic, one of the world's leading AI companies, has warned publicly that AI could eliminate as much as half of all entry-level white-collar jobs within one to five years, and has said the world could end up with fast GDP growth alongside high unemployment and rising inequality at the same time (see FIG. 12).[R30] FIG. 12 — Dario Amodei, co-founder and chief executive of Anthropic, meeting with then UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak in May 2023. Photo: UK Prime Minister's Office, 10 Downing Street, 24 May 2023, CC BY 2.0.[R45] SAMSO TAKE His own proposed responses cover similar ground to Beijing's rules from a different starting point, including a tax on AI-driven automation, progressive taxation of AI companies, universal basic income, and mandatory pre-release testing and auditing of AI models before they reach the public.[R31] When asked what happens if the disruption outruns the economy's ability to adapt, his answer was direct. "This is the outcome we wanna prevent." Congress has bipartisan efforts under way attempting to legislate some of the same guardrails already written into Chinese court rulings and workforce caps. Beijing and Washington are approaching the same problem from very different political systems, using very different tools, and arriving at a similar list of proposed fixes. Support Samso Independent, organic, and free to read We produce independent organic content and need your support to keep that going. Every contribution covers the cost of research, keeps the site running, and buys the time to write the next piece. A$10, A$20, A$30 or an amount you choose One time, weekly, monthly or yearly A donation buys nothing and unlocks nothing. It keeps the work going. Support Samso → 8.00 — WHAT THE FORECASTS ACTUALLY SAY A managed slowdown, with the weak point named It would be easy to stack these three trends up and reach for a dramatic conclusion. No credible forecaster is doing that, and it's worth being specific about what they're saying instead, because "collapse" and "managed slowdown with a named soft spot" are very different stories. The IMF's 2025 Article IV review of China holds its 2026 growth forecast at 4.5%, describing a "deeper-than-expected" property sector contraction as the main domestic risk, and renewed trade tension as the main external one.[R25] It has called on Chinese policymakers to cut industry subsidies from around 4% of GDP to 2%, and to restructure the debt of local government financing vehicles, the off-balance-sheet entities local governments have historically used to fund infrastructure spending. Other forecasters land in a similar range with varying degrees of scepticism about official figures. Finland's Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies expects actual growth closer to 4% in 2026, slowing further to around 3.5% in 2027 and about 3% in 2028.[R26] UBS expects the drag on GDP growth from the property downturn to narrow from 1.5 to 2 percentage points in 2025 to 0.5 to 1 point in 2026, as the pace of decline in sales, construction starts and investment eases.[R27] One route out of this bind is exports, and China has a genuine lead to sell into. Electric vehicles are the clearest case. Chinese brands dominate the global EV supply chain, and by 2026 Chinese-made electric cars had captured record shares of markets from Australia, where China overtook Japan as the largest source of new vehicles, to the United Kingdom, where a Chinese-linked brand became the country's best-selling new car in a single month (see FIG. 13).[R33] FIG. 13 — A BYD e6, one of the Chinese-made electric vehicles now capturing record market shares from Australia to the United Kingdom, photographed in Hong Kong. Photo: User3204, Wikimedia Commons, 19 May 2024, CC BY-SA 4.0.[R42] Two things narrow that route considerably. The first is tariffs. The United States imposes roughly 100% duties on Chinese-made electric vehicles, and the European Union runs a tiered anti-subsidy tariff running from 17.4% to 45.3% depending on the manufacturer.[R34] Chinese carmakers have adapted, localising production inside the EU, exporting plug-in hybrids and vehicle kits that avoid the tariff, and redirecting volume to markets without one, but the two largest, most lucrative consumer markets in the world remain substantially closed to the finished product that would generate the most value. The second is domestic demand, and this is where the wealth gap matters directly. Household consumption made up only 38.8% of China's GDP in 2020, against more than 60% in the United States and the United Kingdom, and Beijing has only just elevated raising household income to a top-level national policy priority, folded into the 15th Five-Year Plan in March 2026, specifically because weak consumer spending is seen as a bottleneck to growth.[R35] China's Gini coefficient, a standard measure of income inequality where zero is perfect equality and 100 is total concentration in one household, exceeds the United Nations' own warning threshold of 40 on every published estimate, official or independent, though the exact figure is disputed. Official statistics put it at 46.5, other estimates put it above 57. Urban incomes run more than double rural incomes on average.[R35] A country that has concentrated as much of its income gains as China has in its wealthier coastal cities cannot simply ask its regional population to spend its way to the growth that exports aren't fully delivering. The people any consumption-led recovery needs to spend more are disproportionately the people who have benefited least from the growth so far. That's a genuine constraint on trading out of the debt problem, not just a footnote to it. SAMSO TAKE Here's where these separate weak points could compound rather than simply add up, and this isn't a Samso hypothesis, it's a documented finding with named researchers behind it. The Stockholm economist Per Krusell, working with Pedro Brinca, Hans Holter and Laurence Malafry, ran fiscal-policy models across a large set of countries and found a strong, direct correlation between wealth inequality and the size of a country's fiscal multiplier, how much extra growth a dollar of government stimulus or spending actually generates.[R36] Separately, the UC Berkeley economist Alan Auerbach, working with Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Daniel Murphy, built a model showing inequality has large negative effects on output partly because it dampens the very fiscal stimulus governments rely on to offset a downturn.[R49] The mechanism both teams point to is the same one. Wealthier households save a larger share of any income they receive, while poorer households would spend nearly all of it if they had it. Apply that to China's specific situation and the real risk is interaction between these weak points, not any single one of them failing in isolation. Urban renewal spending, debt resolution and any future stimulus all depend on that money eventually turning into household income and then into consumption, to generate the follow-on growth policymakers are counting on. If the wealth gap means a large share of the population that would need to do that spending doesn't have the income to do it, the same stimulus dollar does less work in China than it would in a more evenly distributed economy. Nobody has published a number for how much smaller China's multiplier actually is, and this is Samso's own inference from the pieces already on the table, not a forecast. But it's a real, worst-case mechanism worth naming plainly. The various holes in this piece, the debt nobody can fully see, the exports tariffs are blocking, the population that's shrinking, and the wealth gap limiting consumption, might not simply add up to a slower recovery. They could multiply into one. That's a managed deceleration, not a crash scenario, with the property sector named consistently as the identified weak point, not an unknown one. The population decline and the AI-jobs tension aren't yet showing up as separate line items in these growth forecasts. That absence says something. The forecasting community is currently treating this as a property and trade story, not yet as a demographic-and-automation story. Whether that changes over the next year or two is arguably the more interesting open question than any single growth number. 9.00 — WHERE THIS LEAVES THE READER China gets a slower version of Japan's path, or a harder one China is trying to build the urban capacity for a growing, consuming population using a policy playbook designed a decade ago, at the exact moment its population is shrinking and the jobs that would justify the move are increasingly exposed to automation. That is a genuine structural tension, documented in the government's own statistics and in the words of its own economists, not an outside critique imposed on the story. On the evidence currently available, this is an economy attempting a difficult transition with fewer of the tailwinds it had the last time it tried something this size, not one heading for collapse. Whether it plays out closer to Japan's outcome, three lost decades followed by a real recovery, or something slower and harder given the extra weight of a fragmented, opaque debt structure and two pressures Japan never faced at once, is the open question this piece set out to frame rather than settle. Nobody, including the IMF, the Bank of Finland's own researchers, or China's former chief statistician, is claiming to know the answer with confidence, and that uncertainty is itself the thing worth taking seriously before anyone prices in either outcome. SAMSO TAKE For an ASX investor, the practical version of this question isn't "will China collapse," which the evidence doesn't support, it's "how long does this take, and does China actually have a working route back." Japan's own answer took three decades, and it worked because Japan could simply wait, its debt was visible and contained, and the country never needed a specific growth engine to fire in order to recover. China's two obvious growth engines, exporting its way out through electric vehicles and spending its way out through domestic consumption, are both constrained in ways this piece has set out plainly, and the fiscal-multiplier risk covered above means those constraints could reinforce each other rather than stay separate. A Japan-style outcome is still possible, but it's a harder path to bet on without knowing which lever China actually pulls, or whether either one works as well as the plan assumes. Part 2 looks at where the capital tied up in this transition is actually flowing, and which ASX and TSX-listed producers are closest to benefiting from it, tungsten, tin and copper on one side, and iron ore on the other. If the property-led growth model really is giving way to an AI-led one, which side of that trade is actually positioned to benefit first? Iron ore deserves a place in that discussion too, and not for the reason that gets assumed first. The obvious hope for Australian producers is that the global push toward green steel, made using hydrogen-based direct reduction rather than a coal-fired blast furnace, becomes a catalyst for renewed interest in the sector (see FIG. 14). FIG. 14 — The BHP Yandi mine in the Pilbara, Western Australia, seen from the air. Standard Pilbara ore runs 56% to 62% iron, short of the roughly 67% grade direct reduction steelmaking needs. Photo: Calistemon, Wikimedia Commons, 30 June 2022, CC BY-SA 4.0.[R50] SAMSO TAKE The problem is that direct reduction technology needs ore grading above roughly 67% iron, and standard Pilbara ore runs 56% to 62%, five to nine percentage points short.[R46] That's the opposite of a tailwind. Australian iron ore export revenue is forecast to fall from around A$116 billion to roughly A$97 billion by 2026 to 2027, and the grade gap against higher-grade rivals such as Guinea's Simandou project, at around 65% iron, and Brazilian ore is part of why.[R47] Fortescue is the one major Pilbara producer betting seriously on beneficiation and green hydrogen technology to close that gap, having committed to net-zero Scope 3 emissions by 2040, a target Rio Tinto and BHP have not matched.[R48] Whether that bet pays off before the grade problem costs Australia the higher end of the green steel market is a real open question for Part 2, not a settled one. Samso Access Some of the work does not appear here Samso holds back a set of Insights for members. Same method as this piece, the same sourcing and the same counterweights, on companies and sectors that do not make the public feed. Every member-only Samso Insight unlocked Full access to the gated Insights archive New member-only pieces included as they publish Samso News, Coffee with Samso and Research Workups will join the gated set later. A$20 a month · cancel any time See what is inside → THE VOCABULARY, IN PLAIN ENGLISH Hukou China's household registration system. It historically tied a person's access to schooling, healthcare and welfare to wherever they were officially registered, not wherever they actually lived. LGFV (local government financing vehicle) An entity a local Chinese government sets up specifically to borrow money outside the official limits Beijing places on local government debt. Article IV review The IMF's regular annual health check of a member country's economy and policies. Every reference below carries an identifier, [R1] to [R27], matching the marker used at its first point of use in the body text above. Where a specific figure or quotation is checked, the identifier appears again at that point. [R1] ArchDaily / Big Think, on the original 2013 250-million rural-to-urban urbanisation plan. [R2] State Council Information Office (english.scio.gov.cn), on the 15th Five-Year Plan for Urban Regeneration, 2026 to 2030. [R3] South China Morning Post, on the scale and scope of the urban renewal campaign's expected investment. [R4] Bloomberg, on the 19-megaregion plan and Hong Kong's Northern Metropolis project. [R5] South China Morning Post, on hukou reform under the current urbanisation action plan. [R6] Peterson Institute for International Economics, on the two-tier land market and population-linked land supply. [R7] Wikipedia (Chinese real estate crisis, 2020 to present), citing Bloomberg Economics, on real estate's share of China's GDP. [R8] The Washington Times, on the Evergrande founder's sentencing, 20 August 2026. [R9] International Investment, citing Bloomberg, on 2026 property investment, construction starts and sales figures. [R10] Yahoo News / Ghost Cities reporting, on the "three red lines" policy reversal. [R11] Fortune, citing Reuters, on He Keng's remarks as former deputy head of China's National Bureau of Statistics. [R12] Yahoo News / Ghost Cities reporting, citing the Wall Street Journal, on Evergrande's unfinished presold units. [R13] Yahoo News / Ghost Cities reporting, citing the Brookings Podcast, on Kenneth Rogoff's April 2026 remarks. [R14] Wikipedia (National debt of Japan) and EBC Financial Group, citing the IMF and Japan's Ministry of Finance, on Japan's debt-to-GDP ratio and its domestic, Bank of Japan-heavy holder base. [R15] US Congressional Research Service, citing IMF estimates, on China's explicit local government debt and LGFV debt as a share of GDP. [R16] Fortune, on independent analyst estimates of China's total public sector debt burden. [R17] S&P Global Ratings, via Reuters, on the earlier "debt iceberg" characterisation of China's hidden local government debt. [R18] CKGSB Knowledge, on provincial-level LGFV debt concentration, including Guizhou, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Liaoning and Qinghai. [R19] Caixin Global, on Beijing's 12 trillion yuan hidden local debt resolution package and the remaining LGFV operational debt. [R20] Washington Post and Pew Research Center, citing UN Population Division data, on China's population peak and decline. [R21] Pew Research Center, RAND Corporation, Washington Post and China Briefing, citing China's National Bureau of Statistics, on population and working-age population figures. [R22] hellochinatech.com, citing China's National Bureau of Statistics' May 2026 release, on youth unemployment by age bracket. [R23] chinatalk.media and allwork.space, on Cai Fang's published views and the wider labour policy debate. [R24] Yahoo Finance / GuruFocus reporting, on court rulings against AI-driven dismissals. [R25] IMF, 2025 Article IV Consultation for China, on the 2026 growth forecast and named risks. [R26] Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT), on the 2026 to 2028 growth outlook. [R27] UBS, China Outlook 2026 to 2027, on the narrowing property drag estimate. [R28] Sparktour, "Skyline of Shenzhen from Hong Kong," Wikimedia Commons, 29 August 2019, CC BY-SA 4.0. Reproduced photograph, not an original Samso illustration. [R29] 中少, "Unfinished buildings in Maoming," Wikimedia Commons, 27 July 2021, CC BY-SA 4.0. Reproduced photograph, not an original Samso illustration. [R30] "Inside the Mind of Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei," The Circuit, Bloomberg Originals, extended interview transcript, 2026, on Dario Amodei's stated estimate of AI-driven entry-level white-collar job losses and the "fast GDP growth, high unemployment" scenario. [R31] "Inside Anthropic, the $965 Billion AI Juggernaut," The Circuit, Bloomberg Originals, interview transcript, 2026, on Dario Amodei's proposed policy responses, including automation taxation, progressive taxation of AI companies, universal basic income and mandatory pre-release testing and auditing. [R32] Next City, "Geographers Studied Shrinking U.S. Cities for Two Years," on rightsizing plans in Youngstown, Detroit, Flint and Buffalo. ScienceDirect, "Shrinking cities, an unfit term for American urban policy," on the German Federal Cultural Foundation's Shrinking Cities Project and the Schrumpfende Städte program in the former East Germany. [R33] GreenCars, "The EVs the Rest of the World Is Already Driving," on Chinese EV market share gains in Australia and the United Kingdom, 2026. [R34] Transport & Environment analysis and the European Parliamentary Research Service, on EU anti-subsidy tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles. Rare Earth Exchanges, on the roughly 100% US Section 301 tariff on China-origin EVs. [R35] Caixin Global, "China Targets Income Growth to Rebalance Its Economy," March 2026, on household consumption's share of GDP, the Urban and Rural Residents' Income Growth Plan, China's official Gini coefficient and the urban-rural income ratio. Statista and World Economics, on independent Gini coefficient estimates for China. [R36] Pedro Brinca, Hans A. Holter, Per Krusell and Laurence Malafry, "Fiscal Multipliers in the 21st Century," Journal of Monetary Economics 77 (2016), on the strong correlation their cross-country models found between wealth inequality and the size of the fiscal multiplier. [R37] CEIC, "Japan Urban Land Price Index: Biggest 6 Cities: Residential," citing the Japan Real Estate Institute, on the index level from 1955 to 2017. Housing Japan and Japan Property Research, on Japan's Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism official land price survey, released March 2026, reporting the fifth consecutive annual rise in nationwide land prices. [R38] yt_siden, "Bank of Japan Head Office, Tokyo," Wikimedia Commons, 29 August 2011, CC BY-SA 2.0. Reproduced photograph, not an original Samso illustration. [R39] Glabb, "Beipanjiang Highway Bridge, Guizhou, China," Wikimedia Commons, 21 August 2011, CC BY-SA 3.0. Reproduced photograph, not an original Samso illustration. [R40] Dblcut3, "Youngstown skyline as seen from Wean Park," Wikimedia Commons, 6 August 2020, CC BY-SA 4.0. Reproduced photograph, not an original Samso illustration. [R41] Windmemories, "Residential buildings developed by Evergrande in Pingyuan New Area, Yuanyang," Wikimedia Commons, 5 March 2021, CC BY-SA 4.0. Reproduced photograph, not an original Samso illustration. [R42] User3204, "2021 BYD e6 (front), Tai Po, Hong Kong," Wikimedia Commons, 19 May 2024, CC BY-SA 4.0. Reproduced photograph, not an original Samso illustration. [R43] Popolon, "Ordos Museum in Ordos City, Inner Mongolia," Wikimedia Commons, 5 May 2015, CC BY-SA 4.0, architects Ma Yansong, Yosuke Hayano and Dang Qun of MAD Architects. Reproduced photograph, not an original Samso illustration. [R44] Pauloleong2002, "Supreme People's Court in Beijing," Wikimedia Commons, 11 July 2023, CC BY-SA 4.0. Reproduced photograph, not an original Samso illustration. [R45] UK Prime Minister's Office, 10 Downing Street, "Dario Amodei in 2023," Wikimedia Commons, 24 May 2023, CC BY 2.0. Reproduced photograph, not an original Samso illustration. [R46] IEEFA, "Australia faces growing green iron competition from overseas," and CSIRO, "Australia's green metals gambit," on direct reduction ore-grade requirements above 67% iron against standard Pilbara grades of 56% to 62%. [R47] Discovery Alert, "BHP's Green Steel Shift: The Pilbara's Grade Challenge," on the forecast decline in Australian iron ore export revenue to 2026 to 2027 and the competitive position of Simandou and Brazilian ore. [R48] IEEFA, "Opportunities and challenges for the Pilbara amid the accelerating steel technology transition," on Fortescue's HYFOR and smelter reduction technology partnerships and its 2040 net-zero Scope 3 commitment, compared with Rio Tinto and BHP. [R49] Alan J. Auerbach, Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Daniel Murphy, "Inequality, Fiscal Policy and COVID19 Restrictions in a Demand-Determined Economy," European Economic Review 137 (2021), on inequality's negative effects on output and on the effectiveness of fiscal stimulus. [R50] Calistemon, "BHP Yandi mine seen from the air, June 2022," Wikimedia Commons, 30 June 2022, CC BY-SA 4.0. Reproduced photograph, not an original Samso illustration. Cover photo: Shanghai Skyline 2012, Wikimedia Commons user Yourusernamewillbepublic2. CC0, via Wikimedia Commons (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Shanghai_Skyline_2012.jpg). Reproduced photograph, shown faded under a navy overlay on the article thumbnail. Open item before this is considered final. The youth unemployment figures in circulation for 2026 range from 15.6% to as high as 18.9% depending on source. This piece uses 15.6%, traced directly to an NBS data release, and treats any higher figure as unverified. The Samso Way – Seek the Research Our mission is simple: cut through the noise and spotlight what matters, genuine stories, grounded insights, and real opportunity. Investors can explore our four core platforms: Coffee with Samso Samso Insights Samso News Samso Research There may be numerous paths to success in investing, but the common thread among successful individuals is that they remain committed to making informed decisions. Equip yourself with the right knowledge and tools, and you will be well on your way to achieving your financial goals. Most importantly, investors need to be absolutely diligent in understanding their own risk-reward tolerance and capabilities. Never bite off more than you can chew. As they say, Rome wasn't built in a day, and the Great Wall stood because it took centuries to complete. The Samso Philosophy: Stay curious. Stay sharp. And remember, digging deeper always uncovers the real value. In Life, there is no such thing as a Free Lunch. Never bite off more than you can chew is my parting comment. Happy Investing, and the only four-letter word you need to know is DYOR. 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