Samso Market Close Report | Thursday, September 24, 2026 Australian shares recovered some of their early losses on Thursday but finished lower as elevated global bond yields, weaker metals prices and expectations of further interest-rate increases weighed on sentiment. The S&P/ASX 200 closed 0.72% lower at approximately 8,702 points, improving from a decline of more than 1% during morning trading. The All Ordinaries fell 0.66% to approximately 8,897 points. Energy outperformed, while materials and real estate were among the main drags. The Australian dollar traded near US70.38 cents late in the local session. ASX today: Key Highlights ASX 200 closes 0.72% lower, despite recovering from its morning lows. Unemployment rises to 4.6%, while employment increases by 39,500. Rate-rise expectations remain elevated, with late-session pricing indicating a 96.5% probability of an increase next week. Energy outperforms, while resources and property shares weaken. FTSE 100 opens lower, with attention turning to US unemployment claims and housing figures. Unemployment rises without shifting rate expectations Australia’s August labour force report showed unemployment reaching 4.6%. Employment nevertheless increased by 39,500, comprising a 45,800 rise in part-time positions and a 6,300 decline in full-time employment. Participation increased to 67.1%, meaning more people entered the labour force. The report did little to alter expectations for the Reserve Bank’s next decision. At 3.27pm AEST, ABC reported that LSEG pricing implied a 96.5% probability of a rate increase next Tuesday. The Australian dollar initially slipped after the release before returning to its pre-release level. Energy supports the market as miners retreat Energy shares benefited from the overnight rebound in crude above US$100 a barrel. Brent remained above US$102 during the early afternoon, although it had eased from its overnight highs. The sector’s strength provided only a partial offset to losses elsewhere. Copper’s retreat from near-record levels weighed on miners, including BHP, while gold, lithium and rare-earth companies also featured among the decliners. The weakness was widespread during the session: around midday, 148 ASX 200 constituents were lower, with all but two sectors in negative territory. Premier advances while Zip and Nine weaken Premier Investments stood out following its full-year results, leading the market’s gainers through the session despite concerns about softer retail conditions. Zip was among the largest decliners, while Nine Entertainment also fell sharply. ABC reported that UBS analysts had flagged near-term revenue challenges for Nine following the introduction of an advertising-supported subscription tier. Small caps also ended a volatile session lower, giving back some of their recent gains. Their recovery from the opening lows did not extend far enough to produce a positive finish. Asian markets diverge Japanese shares rallied as Tokyo reopened after an extended holiday break. Technology and artificial-intelligence-related stocks helped the Nikkei 225 gain approximately 1.7% during the session. Hong Kong and mainland Chinese equities weakened as higher US yields weighed on growth stocks. South Korean markets remained closed for the Chuseok holiday. FTSE 100 opens lower in London London’s market also began under pressure. At 8.06am BST, equivalent to 5.06pm AEST, the FTSE 100 was down 33.09 points, or 0.31%, at 10,672.17. The index opened at 10,705.47 and touched 10,666.91 during its opening minutes, compared with Wednesday’s close of 10,705.26. The early decline extended the cautious global tone. Oil remained an important influence given the FTSE’s exposure to major energy companies, alongside movements in gilt yields and sterling. What to watch before Wall Street opens The next scheduled US releases will provide further evidence on employment conditions and housing demand: Initial unemployment claims: 8.30am US Eastern time, or 10.30pm AEST on Thursday. August new home sales: 10am US Eastern time, or midnight AEST entering Friday. These follow Wednesday’s stronger US business activity report, which helped push the 10-year Treasury yield above 5% and weighed on Wall Street. Federal Reserve commentary will also remain in focus as investors assess the likelihood of additional rate increases. Samso Concluding Comments The recovery from the morning lows reduced Thursday’s losses, but the closing result still reflected pressure across much of the market. Energy offered support without generating a broader turnaround. Australia’s employment figures added nuance to the economic picture: unemployment increased alongside employment and participation. Markets continued to price a high likelihood of further tightening. The next test comes offshore. US employment and housing figures, and the bond market’s response, will help shape the lead for Friday’s Australian session. Samso Market Update | Thursday, September 24, 2026 | 2pm AEST Australian shares recovered some of their morning losses by 2pm on Thursday as investors assessed rising unemployment against continued pressure from global bond yields and inflation concerns. The S&P/ASX 200 was down 69.80 points, or 0.80%, at 8,695.50, recovering almost 50 points from its morning low of 8,645.70. The All Ordinaries declined 0.75% to 8,889.10, while the Small Ordinaries fell 0.74% to 3,397.70. Energy remained a source of support, but selling continued across most major sectors. ASX today: Key Highlights ASX 200 pares its decline to 0.80%, improving from a 1.16% fall at 11.20am. Unemployment reaches 4.6%, despite employment increasing by 39,500. Santos and Viva Energy advance, supported by the overnight oil rebound. Zip tumbles 13.62%, while gold and lithium companies remain under pressure. Small Ordinaries recovers more than 26 points from its session low. Unemployment rises as participation increases Australia’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate reached 4.6% in August, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Employment increased by 39,500, comprising a 45,800 rise in part-time employment and a 6,300 decline in full-time employment. The participation rate increased 0.2 percentage points to 67.1%, while underemployment eased 0.1 percentage points to 6.2%. The figures presented a mixed picture. More people found work, but the labour force expanded faster than employment, lifting unemployment. Monthly hours worked increased 0.7%. The ABS also noted potential effects from changes to survey collection and recommended trend estimates as the best measure of underlying labour-market conditions. Energy stocks provide support Energy remained one of the few positive sectors following the overnight rebound in crude prices. Healthcare and consumer discretionary shares also performed comparatively better. Santos rose 1.90% and Viva Energy gained 1.42%. Among other large-cap gainers, Washington H. Soul Pattinson climbed 7.32%, Mercury NZ advanced 4.15%, Reece added 2.07% and Ansell rose 2%. Materials, financials, information technology, communication services, utilities and real estate remained in negative territory. Gold and lithium shares retreat Resources companies featured prominently among the fallers following overnight commodity weakness and the sharp rise in global bond yields. Westgold Resources declined 4.16%, PLS Group dropped 4.07% and Lynas Rare Earths lost 3.41%. Greatland Resources fell 3.31%, Perseus Mining declined 3.14%, IGO retreated 2.67% and Northern Star Resources traded 2.50% lower. Zip’s decline deepens as mid-caps diverge Zip was the standout mid-cap decliner, falling 13.62%, compared with an 8.71% decline in the late-morning snapshot. Core Lithium lost 7.74%, Nine Entertainment declined 7.24%, Macquarie Technology Group fell 6.71% and Liontown Resources dropped 5.95%. Several companies moved strongly against the broader market. Premier Investments gained 8.42%, MA Financial Group advanced 7.08% and Sunrise Energy Metals rose 6.14%. Small caps recover from opening lows The Small Ordinaries recovered to 3,397.70 after touching 3,371.40 earlier in the session, leaving it slightly ahead of the larger benchmarks on a percentage basis. Altech Batteries surged 50%, Celsius Resources gained 37.5% and Arrow Minerals advanced 30%. At the other end of the market, 3D Energi slumped 36.36%, extending its late-morning decline. Samso Concluding Comments The recovery from the morning lows has reduced the scale of the sell-off, but weakness remains widespread. The employment report offers no simple signal for interest rates. Rising unemployment and fewer full-time jobs sit alongside higher participation, employment and hours worked. Those details matter when assessing the Reserve Bank’s next decision. For the remainder of the session, the immediate test is whether buying broadens beyond energy and selected companies sufficiently to sustain the recovery into the close. Samso Market Update | Thursday, September 24, 2026 | 11.20am AEST The Australian sharemarket fell more than 1% on Thursday morning as surging global bond yields and renewed inflation concerns triggered widespread selling. Energy producers provided some support following an overnight rebound in oil prices. At approximately 11.20am AEST, the S&P/ASX 200 was down 101.60 points, or 1.16%, at 8,663.70, recovering slightly from a session low of 8,645.70. The All Ordinaries declined 1.10% to 8,857.70, while the Small Ordinaries fell 0.85% to 3,393.90. Smaller companies continued to outperform the larger benchmarks despite joining the market retreat. ASX today: Key Highlights ASX 200 falls 1.16%, with selling across most major sectors. Energy producers advance, supported by Brent crude above US$103 a barrel overnight. Resources shares weaken, including Lynas, PLS Group and several gold producers. Zip drops 8.71%, featuring among the sharpest mid-cap declines. Small Ordinaries recovers from its opening low, while Altech Batteries rises 50%. Rising bond yields weigh on Australian shares The local decline followed a difficult Wall Street session as the US 10-year Treasury yield climbed to approximately 5.1%, reaching levels last seen in 2007. Stronger US business activity and accelerating business costs reinforced concerns about persistent inflation and further monetary tightening. The S&P 500 fell 0.8%, the Dow Jones lost 0.7% and the Nasdaq declined 1.1%. Higher yields increase borrowing costs and reduce the present value investors assign to future earnings, creating particular challenges for growth companies. Energy stocks rise as oil rebounds Energy was a rare area of strength after November Brent crude rose 3.9% overnight to US$103.08 a barrel amid unresolved Middle East supply concerns. Ampol gained 1.59%, Viva Energy added 1.11%, Santos rose 1.07% and Woodside Energy advanced 0.84%. Outside energy, Washington H. Soul Pattinson led the large-cap gainers with a 5.27% rise. Mercury NZ climbed 4.53%, while TechnologyOne added 1.62%, moving against the weaker technology backdrop. Resources and technology shares retreat Materials were among the weaker sectors following overnight declines in several commodities. Spot gold fell approximately 1.6%, copper lost 0.7% and iron ore eased 0.3%. Lynas Rare Earths declined 4.02%, PLS Group dropped 3.83% and IGO lost 2.88%. Gold producers also retreated. Westgold Resources fell 3.63%, Greatland Resources declined 2.95% and Regis Resources lost 2.32%. NEXTDC dropped 3.72%, while Qantas Airways traded 2.30% lower. Mid-cap selling intensifies Several mid-cap companies recorded substantially larger declines than the benchmark. Zip fell 8.71%, Core Lithium dropped 7.74% and Nine Entertainment lost 7.24%. FireFly Metals declined 4.86%, Vulcan Energy Resources retreated 4.82% and Alkane Resources fell 4.64%. The losses extended across financial technology, media and resources, reflecting the breadth of the morning’s selling. Small caps recover from early lows The Small Ordinaries was down 29 points at 3,393.90, having recovered from an early low of 3,371.40. While the index gave back some of its recent gains, individual companies continued to record substantial advances. Altech Batteries surged 50%, Arrow Minerals gained 30%, SKK Holdings added 17.65% and OFX Group rose 17.03%. Among the decliners, 3D Energi fell 25.45%, with several other microcaps also recording double-digit losses. What to watch next Australia’s August labour force figures are scheduled for 11.30am AEST, shortly after this market snapshot. Employment, unemployment, participation and hours worked will provide fresh evidence for investors assessing the domestic interest-rate outlook. The release could influence trading through the afternoon, alongside movements in bond yields and oil prices. Samso Concluding Comments Energy’s advance has provided limited protection against a broad market decline. The recovery from the morning lows shows some buying interest, but most major areas of the market remain under pressure. Small caps are holding up comparatively better, although individual gains should be assessed against company announcements and trading volumes. The next test is whether the employment figures help stabilise sentiment or reinforce concerns about tighter monetary policy. Samso Morning Report | Thursday, September 24, 2026 | 9 pm Australian shares are set for a sharply weaker opening, with ASX futures pointing to a fall of approximately 1.1% after surging US Treasury yields unsettled Wall Street and rebounding oil prices renewed inflation concerns. Before market open, ASX futures were down 101 points at 8,709, following Wednesday’s modest gain in the S&P/ASX 200. For investors watching the ASX today, the immediate focus is on technology shares, energy producers and Australia’s August employment figures, due at 11.30am AEST. Key Highlights ASX futures decline approximately 1.1%, signalling a difficult opening. US 10-year Treasury yields reach their highest levels since 2007. Nasdaq falls 1.1%, reversing some of the recent technology rally. November Brent crude rebounds to US$103.08 a barrel. Australian employment figures headline today’s domestic calendar. Wall Street falls as bond yields climb The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to approximately 5.10% from 4.96%, briefly approaching 5.14%—levels last seen in 2007. The rise followed a preliminary survey showing US business activity expanding at its fastest pace in more than five years. Business costs also increased at their quickest rate in four years, reinforcing concerns about persistent inflation. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.7% to 51,511.59, the S&P 500 declined 0.8% to 7,706.03 and the Nasdaq Composite lost 1.1% to 26,936.04. Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr said further policy adjustments would probably be necessary to bring inflation back to target, reinforcing expectations of additional tightening after last week’s rate increase. Traders assigned a greater-than-50% probability to a rate increase at each of the October and December meetings. Individual stocks moved sharply. Palo Alto Networks gained 4.97%, CrowdStrike advanced 4.91% and Veeva Systems rose 3.97%. Paychex fell 8.77%, Expedia lost 7.72% and Airbnb declined 7.56%. Oil rebounds as Iran negotiations remain unresolved November Brent crude rose 3.9% to US$103.08 a barrel, reversing part of its recent retreat. The more actively traded December contract gained 2.8% to US$98.12. These prices refer to different delivery months. Both contracts advanced as negotiations involving the United States and Iran failed to produce a concrete breakthrough. Brent remains substantially above its pre-conflict level of approximately US$72 a barrel, maintaining pressure on fuel costs and the inflation outlook. For the Australian market, the rebound provides a potentially supportive lead for Woodside Energy and Santos, although their shares will also face the broader selling pressure indicated by futures. Gold weakens as the Australian dollar trades below US71 cents At around 7am AEST, spot gold was down 1.6% at approximately US$4,287 an ounce, providing a weaker overnight lead for Australian gold producers. Iron ore was down 0.3% at US$95.80 a tonne, while the Australian dollar traded near US70.39 cents. Australia’s 10-year government bond yield was approximately 5.35%. European and Asian markets lose ground European equities generally weakened. Germany’s DAX fell 0.7% to 25,410.63 and France’s CAC 40 declined 0.4% to 8,123.41. London’s FTSE 100 was virtually unchanged at 10,705.26. In Asia, the Shanghai Composite lost 0.4% to 3,936.52, the Shenzhen Composite declined 0.5% to 2,525.92 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 1% to 24,834.12. India’s Sensex gained 0.4% to 74,828.25. Japanese cash markets were closed for the Autumnal Equinox holiday. ASX enters Thursday after a modest gain The S&P/ASX 200 finished Wednesday at 8,765.30, up 7.50 points, or 0.09%. Smaller companies continued to outperform. The Small Ordinaries added 0.14% to 3,422.90, extending its five-session advance to 1.48%. Micro-X was a standout, rising 60%, alongside substantial gains in SRJ Technologies and Po Valley Energy. That recent strength now faces a less supportive global backdrop, particularly for companies sensitive to funding costs and investor appetite for risk. What to watch on the ASX today Australia’s August labour force report is scheduled for 11.30am AEST, covering employment, unemployment, participation and hours worked. June-quarter national finance and wealth figures are due at the same time. The employment release will provide fresh evidence on domestic economic conditions as investors assess the interest-rate outlook. Its implications could influence trading beyond the initial response to Wall Street. Technology shares face a weaker Nasdaq lead, while gold producers must contend with the overnight bullion decline. Energy stocks may attract attention following the rebound in crude. Samso Concluding Comments Higher oil prices and rising bond yields affect the market through different channels. Energy costs put pressure on business margins and household spending, while higher yields challenge equity valuations and increase financing costs. The opening indication is weak, but the session will also depend on whether energy and resources can provide support and how investors interpret the employment figures. Those developments will offer a clearer picture than the futures indication alone.

Monday, 28 September 2026 | Closing market wrap The Australian share market surrendered much of its midday advance on Monday, finishing slightly higher as gains in healthcare and financial stocks offset a sharp retreat across resources. The S&P/ASX 200 closed at 8,679.70, up 14.70 points or 0.17%, after reaching 8,709.30. The benchmark gave back almost two-thirds of its maximum gain, revealing a less convincing session than the positive finish suggested. The All Ordinaries edged up 0.06% to 8,850.70, while the Small Ordinaries fell 1.30% to 3,312.00. Emerging companies suffered more heavily, with their index declining 2.31%. Key highlights The ASX 200 faded into the close, retaining a modest gain. Materials fell 1.34%, with gold and battery-materials stocks under pressure. Northern Star Resources rose 6.15% following a rejected takeover approach. Dateline Resources jumped 47.62%, while Karoon Energy fell 12.89%. Oil climbed as metals and Bitcoin weakened, while London opened higher. Gold stocks fall, but Northern Star breaks ranks Gold producers were prominent among the day’s losers as bullion retreated. Vault Minerals Limited (ASX:VAU) fell 5.83%, Genesis Minerals Limited (ASX:GMD) lost 5.75% and Capricorn Metals Limited (ASX:CMM) declined 3.83%. Ramelius Resources Limited (ASX:RMS) dropped 3.62%. Northern Star Resources Limited (ASX:NST) moved against that trend, gaining 6.15% to A$23.47. The company confirmed it had rejected a conditional proposal from Gold Fields comprising 0.3125 Gold Fields shares and A$7.25 cash for each Northern Star share. The board considered the approach inadequate, giving investors a company-specific development to assess alongside the weaker gold price. Higher oil fails to lift the energy sector Oil strengthened after renewed uncertainty over negotiations between the United States and Iran. An afternoon update placed Brent futures at US$107.16 a barrel, up 2.7%, and US crude futures at US$94.16, up 1.9%. Nevertheless, Australian energy stocks collectively finished 0.22% lower. Karoon Energy Limited (ASX:KAR) slumped 12.89% to A$1.555 after an equipment fault at its Brazilian operations prompted a production downgrade and higher expected unit costs. The company-specific setback outweighed the stronger oil price, illustrating the importance of operating performance even when commodity markets appear supportive. Dateline stands out amid smaller resources losses Dateline Resources Limited (ASX:DTR) surged 47.62% to 9.3 cents, with more than 136 million shares traded. US federal defendants have sought a stay of the injunction affecting its Colosseum project. A successful application could permit operations to resume, but the injunction has not yet been lifted. Elsewhere, selling remained pronounced. Minbos Resources Limited (ASX:MNB) fell 17.65%, New Murchison Gold Limited (ASX:NMG) lost 12.66%, Minerals 260 Limited (ASX:MI6) declined 10.64% and Core Lithium Limited (ASX:CXO) dropped 8.70%. Healthcare and financials provide support Healthcare gained 1.49%, utilities rose 1.17% and financials advanced 1.16%. marketindex.com.au CSL Limited (ASX:CSL) added 2.80%, Meridian Energy Limited (ASX:MEZ) climbed 5.35% and Macquarie Group Limited (ASX:MQG) gained 2.28%. These gains helped sustain the benchmark ahead of Tuesday’s RBA decision. Early Monday market pricing implied approximately a 90% chance of a 25-basis-point increase to 4.60%. The decision is scheduled for 2.30pm AEST on September 29. RBA Metals and Bitcoin weaken; London opens higher Later indicative prices showed gold around US$4,163 an ounce, down 2.85%, and copper near US$6.60 a pound, down 1.54%. Weaker selling prices alongside elevated energy costs present an uncomfortable combination for miners. Trading Economics Bitcoin traded near US$83,121 at 4.33pm AEST, down 1.65% over 24 hours. Goodreturns Asian markets were mixed in the available late-session readings: Japan and South Korea were lower, mainland Chinese stocks weakened and Hong Kong advanced. Confirmed final closes were unavailable in the retrieved feeds. indexes.nikkei.co.jp London opened positively. The FTSE 100 rose 35.06 points, or 0.33%, to 10,730.31 at 8am BST. Google Finance Samso concluding comments The closing numbers reveal a selective market. Larger healthcare and financial companies provided support, while resources faced weaker metals prices and substantial selling. Northern Star and Dateline demonstrated that specific corporate developments could still attract buyers. Karoon showed the reverse: operational setbacks can overwhelm a favourable commodity move. ASX Today: Samso Market Update | Monday, September 28, 2026 | 3 pm AEST Australian small caps extended their losses on Monday afternoon as investors weighed an anticipated Reserve Bank interest-rate increase, elevated global bond yields and unsettled commodity markets. At 3:04 pm AEST, the S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries was down 40.10 points, or approximately 1.20%, at 3,315.40. The index had recovered from a session low of 3,301.80, but remained below its morning level. The decline contrasted with the S&P/ASX 200, which was 0.25% higher at 8,686.80 at the same time. Selected smaller companies attracted strong buying, particularly Dateline Resources Limited (ASX) following US government support for its Colosseum project. However, those gains came against a continuing retreat in the small-cap benchmark. Key Highlights Small Ordinaries falls approximately 1.20%, while the ASX 200 remains positive. The index has lost approximately 3.14% since Wednesday’s close, reversing its earlier recovery. An expected RBA rate increase on September 29 adds to concerns about borrowing and funding costs. Dateline Resources advances 48.41% on turnover exceeding 124 million shares. Materials and technology remain weaker, while financials and healthcare support the broader market. The recovery reversed on September 24 The latest decline followed a brief recovery during an already volatile September. The Small Ordinaries gained 0.75% on Tuesday, September 22, then added 0.14% on Wednesday, September 23, closing at 3,422.90 after reaching an intraday high of 3,445.10. Selling resumed on Thursday, September 24, when the index fell 0.62% to 3,401.70. Friday brought a further 1.36% decline to 3,355.50. By Monday afternoon, the index was approximately 3.14% below Wednesday’s close and 3.76% below Wednesday’s intraday peak. September had already produced sharp setbacks, including declines of 1.77% on September 2 and 1.62% on September 11. The latest selling therefore extended a difficult month in which recoveries had repeatedly failed to hold. RBA decision adds a domestic pressure point Investors were positioning ahead of the Reserve Bank’s September 29 policy decision, with early Monday market pricing indicating approximately a 90% probability of a 25-basis-point increase. Such a move would lift the cash rate from 4.35% to 4.60%. The decision is scheduled for 2:30pm AEST on Tuesday. An increase would add to borrowing costs for businesses with variable-rate debt or upcoming refinancing requirements. Consumer-facing companies could also face pressure if higher household repayments constrain discretionary spending. For smaller companies still developing projects or building revenue, the concern extends to their next funding round. Investors may demand clearer evidence of progress, tighter spending and a shorter path to positive cash flow before committing additional capital. The anticipated decision provides relevant context for the retreat, although it does not explain every individual share-price movement. Global bond yields interrupted the recovery The timing of Thursday’s decline also coincided with a sharp deterioration in the overseas interest-rate outlook. During the US session on September 23, stronger business-activity figures pushed Treasury yields higher and increased expectations of another Federal Reserve rate rise. The US 10-year yield reached its highest level since 2007, while oil prices climbed almost 4%. Wall Street declined, providing a weaker lead for Australian trading on September 24. Higher yields affect equity valuations as well as financing costs. When investors apply a higher discount rate to future earnings, businesses whose expected profits sit several years away can become more vulnerable to valuation adjustments. For explorers and developers, this can mean a lower market valuation even when the underlying resource or development plan has not changed. Commodity movements complicate the outlook Resource shares were already showing weakness before Monday. During Friday’s early trading, Bannerman Energy Limited (ASX) fell 3.65%, Boss Energy Limited (ASX) declined 3.57%, and NexGen Energy Limited (ASX) lost 3.39%. The simultaneous declines showed that pressure extended across several uranium companies. Monday’s commodity backdrop remained unsettled. In the 10:50am AEST market report, Brent crude was approximately US$106 a barrel, up 1.6%, while spot gold was around US$4,262 an ounce, down 0.5%. Oil rebounded after President Donald Trump rejected an Iranian proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. For mining businesses, higher fuel prices can increase operating and transport costs. Where commodity selling prices also weaken, expected margins can come under pressure from both directions. By 3:13pm AEST, materials and information technology were lower in the broader ASX sector snapshot. Financials, healthcare and utilities remained positive, helping explain why the headline benchmark held its gains while smaller companies weakened. Dateline Resources rallies on US government support Dateline Resources Limited (ASX) was the standout small-cap gainer, advancing 48.41% in the afternoon gainers snapshot on volume exceeding 124 million shares. The company announced that the US government had filed its own motion seeking to suspend the preliminary injunction preventing operations at the Colosseum Gold and Rare Earth Project while an appeal proceeds. The application was supported by a declaration citing the national-security importance of rare-earth exploration. It followed Dateline’s earlier application for a stay. The motions are scheduled to be heard on October 26. If granted, a stay would allow operations to resume under the approved plan while the appeal continues. The announcement did not mean the injunction had already been lifted. ASX Today: Samso Market Update | Monday, September 28, 2026 | 11:00 am AEST Australian shares advanced modestly on Monday morning, supported by financials, healthcare and a sharp rise in Northern Star Resources following confirmation of a rejected takeover approach from Gold Fields. However, smaller companies continued to weaken, while an operational setback at Karoon Energy highlighted the importance of company announcements alongside movements in oil, gold and interest-rate expectations. At 11:00am AEST, the S&P/ASX 200 was up 22.30 points, or 0.26%, at 8,687.30, after reaching 8,692.50. The All Ordinaries gained 17.10 points, or 0.19%, to 8,862.70. The Small Ordinaries fell 23.80 points, or 0.71%, to 3,331.70, remaining close to its session low of 3,329.60. Key Highlights Northern Star rises 8.41% after confirming it rejected a conditional Gold Fields takeover proposal. Karoon Energy falls 12.75% following an electrical fault and reduced production guidance. Financials and healthcare support the ASX, while energy and technology lag. Small Ordinaries declines 0.71%, despite substantial gains in individual smaller stocks. Tuesday’s RBA decision remains the next major domestic event. Northern Star’s rally has a takeover catalyst Northern Star Resources (ASX) led the large-cap gainers after confirming that Gold Fields had approached it with a conditional, non-binding proposal to acquire the company. The proposal offered A$7.25 cash and 0.3125 Gold Fields shares for each Northern Star share. It initially implied a value of A$27 per share, or approximately A$38.7 billion, using Gold Fields’ September 11 share price. By September 25, movements in Gold Fields’ shares had reduced the implied consideration to A$25.19 per Northern Star share. Northern Star’s board unanimously rejected the approach, arguing that it undervalued the company and exposed shareholders to additional operational and jurisdictional risks through the substantial share component. It also pointed to the approaching commissioning and ramp-up of the Fimiston Mill. The announcement provides a specific catalyst for Northern Star’s 8.41% advance, distinguishing it from the broader gold sector. Genesis Minerals fell 2.22%, Vault Minerals declined 2.20%, Ramelius Resources lost 1.16% and Capricorn Metals eased 1.04%. Oil rebounds, but Karoon faces an operational setback Monday’s commodity trading had reversed part of Friday’s oil decline. In the 10:50am AEST market report, Brent was 1.6% higher at US$106 a barrel, while US crude rose 1.1% to US$93.47, after President Donald Trump rejected an Iranian proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. That followed Friday settlements of US$104.32 for Brent and US$92.41 for WTI. The distinction matters: Friday’s weaker oil prices were no longer an adequate explanation for Monday’s energy-sector performance. Karoon Energy (ASX) fell 12.75% after identifying an electrical cable fault affecting the downhole pump at its SPS-92 well in Brazil’s Baúna project. The company expects approximately 3,500 barrels per day of production to be deferred until the cable is replaced. It reduced total 2026 production guidance from 7.2–8.2 million barrels of oil equivalent to 6.6–7.2 million, while increasing unit production-cost guidance to US$15–16 per barrel of oil equivalent. Karoon said the deferred output was not currently expected to affect Baúna’s reserves. Potential insurance recoveries remain subject to policy terms and confirmation. Elsewhere, Viva Energy fell 1.26%, although Whitehaven Coal gained 2.10%, showing that energy-related shares were moving in different directions. Gold and industrial metals offer mixed signals Spot gold was 0.5% lower at approximately US$4,262 an ounce in Monday’s 10:50am AEST report. That followed a 0.5% rise in gold futures to US$4,321.20 on Friday. These are different instruments and trading periods; Friday’s futures gain should not be presented as Monday’s live gold performance. The softer Monday spot price provides context for weakness across several gold producers, while Northern Star’s takeover news explains its contrasting performance. Friday’s industrial commodity settlements were mixed: Copper futures: Down 0.3% to US$6.6955 a pound. Aluminium futures: Up 0.2% to US$3,435 a tonne. Iron ore futures: Down 0.1% to US$97.06 a tonne. Those prices offered a subdued starting point for resources shares. Sandfire Resources fell 1.03%, while Brazilian Rare Earths declined 4.82% and Sunrise Energy Metals lost 7.46%. The individual declines cannot be attributed to commodity prices alone. Healthcare and financials support the benchmark The 10:59am AEST sector snapshot showed healthcare and financials among the strongest areas, alongside gains in real estate, utilities and industrials. Telix Pharmaceuticals rose 2.64% and Cochlear gained 1.91%, while Brambles advanced 2.13%. Technology performance was mixed. WiseTech Global gained 1.88%, but NEXTDC fell 1.34%, leaving the sector weaker despite Friday’s positive US technology lead. The RBA’s decision is due at 2:30pm AEST on Tuesday, September 29, with the cash rate currently 4.35%. For property and growth companies, the outlook for financing costs remains important even when their shares recover over an individual session. Small-cap gains remain selective The Small Ordinaries’ decline contrasted with several substantial individual advances. DTR rose 34.13% on volume exceeding 62 million shares, while ATC gained 33.33%, RWL advanced 26.23%, WIN added 24.32% and BOA climbed 23.81%. Among mid-caps, Nine Entertainment rose 2.67% and a2 Milk gained 2.41%, while Electro Optic Systems fell 5.21%. Samso Concluding Comments Monday’s market is being shaped by both macroeconomic pressure and company-specific developments. Northern Star’s takeover approach and Karoon’s production downgrade explain more about their respective moves than a general description of stronger gold or weaker oil. The broader recovery remains limited. Financials and healthcare are supporting the benchmark, but continued weakness in smaller companies suggests investors remain selective ahead of the RBA decision. Samso Morning Update | Monday, 28 September 2026 Australian shares are set for a subdued opening on Monday, with a positive Wall Street lead offset by caution ahead of tomorrow’s Reserve Bank interest-rate decision. ASX 200 futures finished the overnight session three points higher at 8,720, suggesting little change at the open. The local benchmark finished Friday at 8,665 points, leaving investors looking for signs that overseas technology gains can translate into renewed buying locally. ASX Today: Key highlights ASX futures: Up three points, pointing to a broadly flat opening. Wall Street: Dow gains 0.9%; S&P 500 and Nasdaq rise about 0.5%. RBA: Early Monday market pricing implies a 90% chance of a quarter-point increase. Oil: Brent settles Friday 2.1% lower at US$104.32 a barrel. Gold: Futures gain 0.5% to US$4,321.20 an ounce. Australian dollar: Around US70.08 cents in the early Monday market snapshot. AI stocks lift Wall Street US equities finished Friday higher as artificial intelligence investment continued to support technology shares. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 478.64 points to 51,828.62, while the S&P 500 gained 39.28 points to 7,743.41. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 129.34 points to 27,068.72. Across the week, the S&P 500 rose 1.2% and the Nasdaq gained about 2%, having reached a record closing high on Tuesday. Microsoft climbed 3.7% after introducing new Copilot capabilities, including coding functionality and an always-on AI agent. Qualcomm gained 4%, while Dell advanced 5%. Akamai Technologies rose 3.2% following an US$11.6 billion cloud-services agreement with Anthropic. The arrangement includes a warrant that could give Anthropic an ownership interest of up to 5%. Meta Platforms fell 3.3% on Friday, although its shares gained approximately 13% over the week following the reception to its Muse AI assistant. RBA decision dominates the local outlook Tomorrow’s RBA announcement is the principal domestic event, with the early Monday briefing putting the market-implied probability of a 25-basis-point increase at approximately 90%. Such a move would lift the cash rate from 4.35% to 4.60%. The RBA will announce its decision at 2:30 pm AEST on Tuesday, September 29. With an increase heavily anticipated, investors will also scrutinise the accompanying statement for indications about the likelihood of further tightening. Property, consumer spending and growth-stock valuations remain particularly sensitive to the outlook for borrowing costs. Oil retreats and Treasury yields ease Friday’s decline in crude provided some relief from inflation concerns. Brent futures settled 2.1% lower at US$104.32 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate fell 2.3% to US$92.41, as reports of an Iranian proposal to end the conflict encouraged hopes of a truce. US government bonds also recovered. The 10-year Treasury yield declined four basis points to 5.16%, while the two-year yield fell seven basis points to 4.86%. Nevertheless, stronger-than-expected US capital-goods orders pointed to continued business investment, leaving investors balancing resilient activity against persistent inflation risks. Gold improves; industrial metals mixed Gold futures gained 0.5% to US$4,321.20 an ounce on Friday, providing a firmer overseas lead for Australian gold producers. Copper futures declined 0.3%, while aluminium rose 0.2% to US$3,435 a tonne. Iron ore futures eased 0.1% to US$97.06 a tonne. In the early Monday snapshot, the Australian dollar traded around US70.08 cents, while Bitcoin was approximately US$84,618. Europe advances; dividends on the local calendar European equities ended Friday higher, with the FTSEurofirst 300 gaining 0.3% and Britain’s FTSE 100 rising 0.1% to 10,695.25. Banks led the advance, while lower oil prices supported airlines and weighed on energy shares. Locally, Newmont, Iress and Insurance Australia Group are scheduled to pay dividends today. Viva Leisure trades ex-dividend. Samso’s concluding comments The overseas lead offers some encouragement for technology stocks, but tomorrow’s RBA decision could keep broader buying restrained. For the ASX today, the key test is whether improving sentiment extends beyond a handful of large companies. A broader recovery, including smaller stocks, would provide a stronger indication that investors are regaining confidence.

Tuesday, September 29, 2026 | Market Update at 3:00 AEST The Reserve Bank of Australia has raised the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.60%, delivering its fourth increase of 2026 and taking interest rates to their highest level since 2011. The decision puts borrowing costs and the possibility of further tightening at the centre of the Australian market outlook. The ASX 200 surrendered its earlier gains around the announcement, while the Small Ordinaries remained positive despite easing from its session high. Key Highlights RBA lifts the cash rate from 4.35% to 4.60%. ASX 200 falls 0.16% to 8,665.40 AEST. Small Ordinaries gain 0.53% to 3,329.40 Technology and materials provide support as financials, property and utilities weaken. RBA leaves further tightening on the table The increase ends the RBA’s two-meeting pause. Persistent inflation remains the central concern, with the bank indicating that further increases are possible if needed. For investors, the question extends beyond this single decision: how long will borrowing costs remain elevated, and how much pressure will that place on household spending, corporate earnings and investment? ASX 200 loses its earlier footing The S&P/ASX 200 was down 14.30 points at 8,665.40, having reached an intraday high of 8,697.80. The chart shows a sharp fall around the 2:30 pm announcement, followed by further weakness. That timing is consistent with a negative market response, although it does not establish that the rate decision explains every move. At 3:00 pm, technology remained positive, and materials were up 0.34%. Financials, energy, real estate and utilities were lower, leaving the benchmark without sufficient support to retain its advance. Small caps remain ahead despite sharp individual losses The Small Ordinaries was 17.40 points higher, although below its session peak of 3,338.40. Altech Batteries Limited (ASX:ATC) led the small-cap advancers, rising 100%, while Ausmon Resources Limited (ASX:AOA) gained 50%. Both gains represented an increase of A$0.001 per share, highlighting how small price movements can produce substantial percentage gains in low-priced stocks. That positive index performance coexisted with substantial losses among individual smaller companies. Tempest Minerals Limited (ASX) fell 20%, while Andromeda Metals Limited (ASX) and Eagle Mountain Mining Limited (ASX) each declined 14.29%. These moves do not establish a broad small-cap retreat. The Small Ordinaries covers companies within the ASX 300 but outside the ASX 100, rather than every listed small company. Different constituents and weights allow it to outperform the ASX 200. Samso Concluding Comments Higher rates deserve particular attention when assessing smaller companies that still need funding before reaching commercial production or sustainable earnings. Borrowing can become more expensive, while investors may demand stronger returns before committing fresh equity. The implications depend on each company’s cash reserves, debt terms and spending commitments. Tuesday’s snapshot shows small caps retaining a gain after the RBA decision. For investors, the more durable question is which businesses have enough financial capacity to keep delivering while capital remains expensive. Tuesday, September 29, 2026 | Market update | 11: am AEST Australian shares edged higher on Tuesday morning as sharp gains in Codan and Megaport supported technology stocks, with investors bracing for an imminent RBA decision widely expected to lift the cash rate to 4.60%. The S&P/ASX 200 was up 0.16% at 8,693.70, recovering from an earlier low of 8,670. Smaller companies performed more strongly. The Small Ordinaries gained 18.60 points, or 0.56%, to 3,330.60, recovering part of Monday’s 1.30% decline. Key Highlights RBA decision approaching: Markets anticipate a 25-basis-point increase to 4.60%. Codan jumped 18.93% after strengthening its earnings outlook. Megaport rose 16.76% following major AI infrastructure contracts. Small caps rebounded 0.56%, although individual performances remained uneven. Technology led sector gains, while energy, financials, utilities and property were weaker. Expected RBA rate hike dominates the afternoon outlook The Reserve Bank will announce its decision at 2.30 pm AEST. Early morning pricing indicated a 93% probability of a quarter-percentage-point increase, taking the cash rate from 4.35% to 4.60%. The increase remains an expectation until the announcement. Governor Michele Bullock’s subsequent press conference will be closely watched for indications of whether further tightening could follow. That leaves the afternoon session sensitive to both the decision and the accompanying outlook for inflation and interest rates. Codan and Megaport deliver company-specific catalysts Codan Limited (ASX) surged 18.93% after forecasting first-half FY27 net profit of at least A$160 million, compared with A$71.2 million a year earlier. Stronger communications orders, particularly for unmanned systems, supported the upgrade. Codan increased its full-year communications revenue growth target to 30%–40%, while cautioning that demand from conflict regions remains difficult to forecast beyond three months. Megaport Limited (ASX) advanced 16.76% after securing three AI infrastructure contracts worth a combined A$978.6 million. The company raised its FY27 revenue forecast to A$720 million–A$810 million and lifted its EBITDA margin guidance to 42%–44%. NEXTDC Limited (ASX) added 1.74%, while WiseTech Global Limited (ASX) gained 1.54%. Resources rebound despite weaker overnight metals Materials were positive in the sector snapshot, with Ramelius Resources Limited (ASX) gaining 2.95% and South32 Limited (ASX) advancing 2.36%. Minerals 260 Limited (ASX) rose 4.76%, while Sunrise Energy Metals Limited (ASX) added 3.98%. The recovery came despite Monday’s overseas settlements showing gold futures down 3.5% to US$4,168.40 an ounce and copper down 1.9% to US$6.566 a pound. These are overnight reference prices, rather than Tuesday’s live quotes. Energy remained weaker, with Karoon Energy Limited (ASX) falling 7.88% following Monday’s production downgrade. Small-cap buying remains selective Altech Batteries Limited (ASX) doubled, although the gain represented a 0.1-cent price movement. Ausmon Resources Limited (ASX) rose 50%, SKK Holdings Limited (ASX) gained 33.33%, and Micro-X Limited (ASX) advanced 21.95%. Meanwhile, 4DS Memory Limited (ASX:4DS) declined 12.50%, highlighting the uneven recovery. Samso Concluding Comments Strong company announcements gave investors reasons to buy despite the prospect of higher interest rates. The next test is whether those gains hold through the RBA announcement. With an increase widely anticipated, guidance on the next stage of monetary policy could prove particularly influential. Tuesday, September 29, 2026 | Samso Morning Report | 9:30 am AEST Australian shares are poised for a flat opening on Tuesday, with an anticipated Reserve Bank interest-rate increase and a sharp overnight decline in gold setting the agenda. SPI futures were one point higher at 8,721, offering little direction after Monday’s modest gain. The Australian dollar traded at US70.19 cents. The subdued futures lead masks potentially divergent sector moves. Gold and copper producers face weaker commodity prices, while higher oil could support energy companies. Technology stocks inherit another negative session on Wall Street as rising bond yields continue to challenge valuations. ASX Today: Key highlights ASX futures point to a flat start ahead of the RBA announcement. Markets price a 93% probability of a rate increase to 4.60%. Gold futures fell 3.5%, while copper lost 1.9%. The US 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.23%, keeping pressure on equities. Brent crude settled at US$105.28 a barrel, after retreating from its session highs. Bitcoin traded near US$83,455 in the early morning snapshot. RBA guidance could matter as much as the decision The Reserve Bank will announce its decision at 2.30pm AEST, with the cash rate currently at 4.35%. A quarter-percentage-point increase to 4.60% is widely anticipated. Morning market pricing places the probability at approximately 93%, although the decision remains pending. Attention will then turn to Governor Michele Bullock’s 3.30pm AEST press conference, particularly any indication that another increase could follow in November. For investors, the distinction matters. A widely expected increase may already be reflected in prices, while guidance pointing to further tightening could prompt another reassessment of borrowing costs, household spending and company valuations. Wall Street falls as bond yields rise US equities finished Monday lower: The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 347.11 points, or 0.7%, to 51,481.51. The S&P 500 declined 59.72 points, or 0.8%, to 7,683.69. The Nasdaq Composite lost 248.34 points, or 0.9%, to 26,820.38. The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.23%, with yields reaching levels last seen in 2007 during the session. Higher borrowing costs and persistent inflation concerns weighed on sentiment. Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ) fell 4.8%, contributing to a 1.7% decline in communication services. American Airlines Group Inc (NASDAQ) lost 2.5% and United Airlines Holdings Inc (NASDAQ) declined 2.2% as fuel costs remained in focus. Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ) resisted the broader weakness, rising 1.7% after announcing an additional US$150 billion share-buyback authorisation. Gold and copper deliver a weak resources lead Gold futures fell US$152.80, or 3.5%, to US$4,168.40 an ounce, reaching a seven-week low. Spot gold was quoted separately at US$4,112.10 in the morning snapshot. The decline reflects the difficult environment for a metal that pays no interest when bond yields are rising. Newmont Corporation (NYSE) fell 4.3% in US trading, providing a negative lead for Australian gold producers. Copper futures declined 1.9% to US$6.566 a pound, while aluminium fell 1.4% to US$3,385.75 a tonne. Weak Chinese economic signals and a firmer US dollar added to pressure on industrial metals. Iron ore futures eased 0.1% to US$96.92 a tonne. These moves follow substantial selling across Australian resources on Monday, leaving miners vulnerable to another difficult opening. Oil retains gains after volatile trading Brent crude settled 0.9% higher at US$105.28 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate finished at US$92.60, up 0.2%. Prices initially jumped after US President Donald Trump rejected an Iranian proposal to end the conflict. They subsequently pared gains as expectations of further mediation revived hopes of negotiations. For the ASX, stronger crude offers a potentially supportive backdrop for Woodside Energy Group Limited (ASX) and Santos Limited (ASX). However, sustained high fuel prices also increase costs for transport, industrial and consumer businesses, complicating the inflation outlook. Monday’s ASX gain concealed small-cap weakness The S&P/ASX 200 closed Monday at 8,679.70, up 0.17%, as healthcare, utilities and financials offset resources losses. The Small Ordinaries fell 1.30% to 3,312.00, highlighting the uneven performance beneath the benchmark. Tuesday’s combination of weaker metals and an imminent rates decision presents another test for smaller companies, particularly those seeking funding for development projects. Asia and Europe finish unevenly Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed Monday at 65,877.62, down 0.7%. South Korea’s market fell approximately 2.7%, while Shanghai declined around 1.7%. European markets were more resilient. The FTSE 100 slipped 0.1% to 10,684.88, while the broader FTSEurofirst 300 finished virtually unchanged. British housebuilders rallied after the government flagged an equity-loan programme for first-home buyers. That strength helped offset weakness in mining shares and concerns about elevated oil prices and bond yields. What to watch Beyond the RBA announcement, US consumer confidence and JOLTS job openings will provide further evidence on demand and labour-market conditions. Australian companies making dividend payments include Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX), Fortescue Limited (ASX), Pro Medicus Limited (ASX) and Netwealth Group Limited (ASX). Samso Concluding Comments ASX Today: Tuesday’s market will have two distinct tests: the opening response to weaker metals and the afternoon response to the RBA. The anticipated rate increase is already well signalled. The more consequential question is whether the accompanying commentary suggests further tightening, and how that changes the outlook for company earnings and access to capital.

Samso Market update| Australian market close | Wednesday, 30 September 2026 Australian shares climbed to their highest closing level in three weeks on Wednesday as steady underlying inflation encouraged investors to scale back expectations for another near-term Reserve Bank interest-rate increase. The S&P/ASX 200 gained 80 points, or 0.92%, to close at 8,789.30, extending its recovery after Tuesday’s RBA decision. The benchmark briefly traded above 8,800 before surrendering some gains towards the close. The All Ordinaries advanced 0.93% to 8,969.20, while the S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries rose 0.70% to 3,368.60. Listed property delivered a particularly strong response, with the S&P/ASX 200 A-REIT index gaining 3.60%. Key highlights ASX 200 reached a three-week closing high, gaining 0.92%. Listed property surged 3.60% as investors reassessed the interest-rate outlook. Underlying inflation remained at 3.6%, despite higher headline inflation. Northern Star Resources rose 6.35% amid renewed takeover speculation. Small caps gained 0.70%, although individual company outcomes remained sharply divided. Inflation report changes the market’s assessment The August Consumer Price Index showed annual headline inflation accelerating to 4.0%, from 3.5% in July, but the result was slightly below expectations. The more closely watched trimmed-mean measure remained at 3.6% for a third consecutive month. That distinction helped explain why shares rose despite the stronger headline number. Investors were looking for evidence of a further acceleration in underlying price pressures, and the report offered some reassurance. The release followed the RBA’s decision on Tuesday to lift the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.60%, its fourth increase of 2026. The central bank retained the option of further tightening, but Wednesday’s figures gave markets more reason to contemplate a pause. Market pricing put the probability of another increase in November at approximately 24%, compared with around 50% shortly after Tuesday’s decision. Australian three-year government bond yields fell as low as 4.87% during the session. Property and consumer shares respond The 3.60% advance in listed property was one of the clearest expressions of that shift. Financials also finished higher, with their sector index adding 0.27%. Property businesses are sensitive to both financing costs and the returns investors can obtain from competing assets. A less restrictive expected interest-rate path can support property valuations and make rental income more attractive, even before actual borrowing costs decline. Buying also extended to businesses exposed to household spending and housing activity. REA Group Limited (ASX:REA) climbed 5.85% to A$157.50, while JB Hi-Fi Limited (ASX:JBH) gained 4.69% to A$70.28. Wesfarmers Limited (ASX:WES) advanced 3.04% to A$76.61. Those gains were consistent with improving expectations for consumers if the tightening cycle is nearing its peak. However, they do not yet establish that household spending or company earnings have strengthened. Northern Star rallies on takeover expectations Northern Star Resources Limited (ASX:NST) closed 6.35% higher at A$24.77, with approximately 12.3 million shares changing hands. The advance followed reports that Gold Fields was considering an improved proposal after Northern Star rejected its earlier takeover approach. The original proposal comprised 0.3125 Gold Fields shares and A$7.25 cash for each Northern Star share. Northern Star’s board argued that it materially undervalued the business and its growth prospects. The share-price response highlighted the importance of corporate activity within resources. Northern Star had a company-specific catalyst beyond movements in bullion, although speculation about improved terms remained distinct from a confirmed revised offer. Codan extends gains after earnings upgrade Codan Limited (ASX:CDA) finished 2.17% higher at A$65.83, extending its advance following Tuesday’s trading update. The shares reached A$70.14 during the session before retreating. The company expects first-half FY2027 net profit of at least A$160 million, compared with A$71.2 million a year earlier. Communications revenue is forecast to reach A$400 million–A$410 million, supported by strong demand, particularly from conflict regions. Codan also increased its full-year communications revenue growth target to 30%–40%. However, it cautioned that visibility over demand from conflict regions remains limited, making it too early to assume first-half margins and order strength will continue through the second half. Small caps recover, but the rally remains selective The Small Ordinaries added 23.40 points, although its 0.70% gain lagged the ASX 200. It also finished below its intraday high of 3,380.20. Cettire Limited (ASX:CTT) was a notable smaller-company winner, gaining 30.56%, with approximately 18.7 million shares traded. At the other end, Lindian Resources Limited (ASX:LIN) declined 18.49%, on turnover of approximately 58 million shares. The company said export arrangements for its Kangankunde rare-earths project remained unchanged amid concerns about proposed regulatory changes in Malawi. The contrast shows why an improving index does not translate into uniform gains. Funding, regulation and project execution continue to matter particularly strongly for smaller businesses. Commodities and global yields temper the optimism The domestic rally occurred against a less comfortable international backdrop. During Asian trading, spot gold was near US$4,180 an ounce, while Brent crude remained around US$103 a barrel. Gold was stabilising after a difficult month, but elevated oil prices continued to complicate the inflation outlook. Bitcoin traded around US$83,500, while the US 10-year Treasury yield remained near 5.24% during the Australian session. High global yields continue to influence financing costs and equity valuations, even when domestic rate expectations ease. Samso Concluding Comments The three-week closing high gives Wednesday’s rally greater significance than a routine daily rebound. Property, consumer shares and small caps all participated, indicating that the improvement extended beyond a handful of heavyweight stocks. The next test is whether that confidence survives subsequent inflation readings and company updates. The September-quarter inflation report, due on 28 October, will be an important input ahead of the next RBA decision. For investors, Wednesday demonstrated how quickly valuations can respond when expectations change. Sustainable returns will still depend on whether businesses can convert that improved market backdrop into earnings, cash flow and operational progress. Wednesday, September 30, 2026 | Afternoon market update Australian shares strengthened after midday as investors welcomed inflation figures that were less severe than expected, reducing concerns about another near-term Reserve Bank interest-rate increase. Heading towards the close, the S&P/ASX 200 had gained 94.20 points, or 1.08%, to 8,803.50, reaching its highest level of the session after an early dip to 8,696.80. The Small Ordinaries rose 33.80 points, or 1.01%, to 3,379.00, showing that the recovery extended beyond the largest companies. Retailers, property-related businesses and selected technology and resources stocks attracted buying, although sharp individual losses remained. Key Highlights ASX 200 breaks above 8,800, advancing 1.08%. Small Ordinaries gains 1.01%, approaching its session high. Annual headline inflation rises to 4.0%, below the 4.1% consensus. Underlying inflation remains at 3.6%, easing immediate rate-hike concerns. Codan and Northern Star gain more than 6%, while Cettire jumps 36.11%. Why higher inflation produced a market rally The August Consumer Price Index rose 4.0% annually, up from 3.5% in July, but slightly below the 4.1% market forecast. Trimmed mean inflation, which reduces the influence of unusually large price movements, held at 3.6% for a third consecutive month. The distinction is important. Prices continued to rise, but the underlying measure did not accelerate further. Markets responded by reducing expectations of a November rate increase, following Tuesday’s rise in the cash rate to 4.60%. Housing and fuel remained significant pressure points. Housing costs increased 5.7% annually, while automotive fuel prices jumped 14.8% during August, reflecting higher world oil prices and the unwinding of remaining fuel-excise relief. For equities, the encouraging development was a reduced risk of additional tightening. Inflation is still above target, and the figures do not establish that the RBA’s work is complete. Retail and property-related shares find support REA Group Limited (ASX) advanced 5.77%, while JB Hi-Fi Limited (ASX) gained 4.36% and Wesfarmers Limited (ASX) rose 4.03%. These moves were consistent with improved sentiment towards businesses exposed to housing activity and household spending. Fewer additional rate increases would reduce the risk of a further squeeze on mortgage holders and discretionary purchases. That remains an interpretation of the trading pattern rather than evidence that household conditions have already improved. Tuesday’s rate increase still needs to flow through the economy. Codan’s earnings outlook adds substance to its advance Codan Limited (ASX) climbed 6.30%, extending investor interest following its trading update earlier in the week. The company expects first-half FY27 net profit after tax of at least A$160 million, compared with A$71.2 million a year earlier, subject to final product mix and shipments. Communications revenue is forecast at A$400 million–A$410 million, supported by strong demand. That gives Codan a specific earnings catalyst alongside the broader improvement in market sentiment. Northern Star rises as takeover interest remains in focus Northern Star Resources Limited (ASX) gained 6.18%, while Ramelius Resources Limited (ASX) added 2.85%. Northern Star’s advance came amid reports that Gold Fields was considering increasing the cash component of its rejected takeover proposal. This remains a reported possibility, rather than a confirmed revised offer. The original proposal included 0.3125 Gold Fields shares and A$7.25 cash for each Northern Star share. Northern Star rejected the approach, arguing that it undervalued the business. The takeover backdrop provides a company-specific explanation for interest in Northern Star, beyond movements in gold or interest-rate expectations. Small caps participate, but outcomes remain uneven The Small Ordinaries traded close to its session high of 3,380.20, recovering from an early low of 3,342.60. Cettire Limited (ASX) stood out with a 36.11% rise on volume exceeding 11.29 million shares, while Image Resources NL (ASX) advanced 28.57%. Among mid-caps, SKS Technologies Group Limited (ASX) gained 10.05%, Karoon Energy Limited (ASX) rose 7.59%, and DroneShield Limited (ASX) added 6.97%. These gains demonstrate participation across different industries, but a rising index does not mean funding conditions or operating prospects have improved equally for every company. Lindian’s decline highlights continuing project risks Lindian Resources Limited (ASX) fell 21.85% despite issuing an update stating that the export position for Kangankunde’s beneficiated monazite concentrate remained unchanged. The company’s clarification followed scrutiny of Malawi’s proposed beneficiation regulations, which remain in draft form. The contrast between that assurance and the share-price decline highlights continuing uncertainty around the regulatory backdrop. Elsewhere, Develop Global Limited (ASX) fell 10%. Among smaller companies, Chimeric Therapeutics Limited (ASX) dropped 40%, Ausmon Resources Limited (ASX) lost 33.33%, and Altech Batteries Limited (ASX) declined 25%. Samso Concluding Comments Wednesday’s rally combines relief over the interest-rate outlook with distinct company stories involving earnings, takeover interest and project risk. For small-cap investors, the improvement in sentiment is welcome, but the more durable questions remain company-specific: how much cash is available, what must be funded next, and which milestones can materially change the business? A more supportive market can improve the reception for those stories. Delivery determines whether that interest lasts. Wednesday, September 30, 2026 | Pre-market update Australian shares are poised for a muted opening as investors await inflation figures that could influence the Reserve Bank’s next move after lifting the cash rate to 4.60%. ASX futures were down five points, or 0.1%, at 8,747. The Australian dollar traded around US69.83 cents before market open. The immediate focus is the August Consumer Price Index, scheduled for release at 11:30 am AEST. ASX today: Key Highlights RBA raises rates to 4.60%, its fourth increase of 2026. August inflation figures provide the next test for interest-rate expectations. ASX 200 closed Tuesday up 0.34% at 8,709.30. Wall Street slips as the US 10-year Treasury yield holds around 5.25%. Oil retreats, providing a mixed lead for Australian sectors. Inflation follows the RBA’s rate increase Australian shares recovered late on Tuesday after Governor Michele Bullock’s press conference tempered expectations of rapid further tightening. The ASX 200 finished 29.60 points higher, reversing its initial decline following the announcement. Further increases remain possible. Wednesday’s inflation reading will help investors assess whether price pressures are easing sufficiently, with September-quarter figures also due before the November policy meeting. For property, consumer businesses and companies requiring fresh capital, that outlook matters through borrowing costs, household spending and access to funding. Wall Street closes lower US shares finished Tuesday weaker as elevated bond yields weighed on valuations. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.3% to 51,349.92, the S&P 500 declined 0.2% to 7,670.84, and the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.1% to 26,797.54. The Russell 2000 lost 0.4%. The US 10-year Treasury yield remained around 5.25%, although comments from New York Federal Reserve President John Williams reduced expectations of an immediate follow-up rate increase. Oil retreats as supply concerns ease November Brent futures settled Tuesday 2.6% lower at US$102.59 a barrel, while the more actively traded Brent contract fell 1.7% to US$96.16. The prices reflect different delivery contracts. Lower crude prices could pressure Australian energy producers while offering relief to transport operators and other fuel-intensive businesses. Asia mixed; Europe mostly lower China’s Shanghai Composite gained 0.2% following pledges of additional policy support, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell approximately 0.5%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 lost 0.60% to 65,481.27, and India’s Sensex declined 0.33% to 72,529.07. In Europe, the FTSE 100 fell 0.45%, France’s CAC 40 declined 0.53%, and Germany’s DAX edged 0.10% higher. Samso Concluding Comments The inflation release is Wednesday’s main domestic catalyst. For small-cap investors, the implications extend beyond the headline index: cash reserves, financing commitments and the path to sustainable revenue become more important while interest rates remain elevated.

Samso Afternoon market update — Thursday, 1 October 2026 Australian shares extended their losses after midday on Thursday, October 1, erasing Wednesday’s rally as elevated global bond yields pressured valuations and the Reserve Bank warned of growing threats to financial stability. The S&P/ASX 200 fell 171.1 points, or 1.95%, to 8,618.20, while the All Ordinaries declined 1.90% to 8,798.70. Smaller companies also retreated, with the Small Ordinaries losing 56.7 points, or 1.68%, to 3,311.90. The decline more than reversed Wednesday’s 80-point advance. Property stocks were particularly weak, while sharp falls in lithium and rare-earth companies added to the pressure. The RBA’s latest Financial Stability Review provided a significant domestic development, highlighting Australia’s exposure to offshore shocks despite the resilience of its financial system. Key highlights ASX 200 falls 1.95%, wiping out Wednesday’s rally. RBA highlights mounting global financial vulnerabilities, including stretched valuations and high sovereign debt. Listed property drops 2.73% as higher bond yields weigh on the sector. Meteoric Resources jumps 47.06% on a takeover proposal, while Lynas Rare Earths falls 7.48%. Liontown slides 11.83%, following approval of its Kathleen Valley expansion. RBA warns global financial risks are mounting The RBA’s October review warned that high sovereign debt and stretched asset valuations leave global markets vulnerable to disruption. Its assessment remained that Australia’s financial system is resilient, but exposed to international developments. The central bank also identified risks from an AI investment reversal, geopolitical conflict, cyberattacks and a disorderly global bond sell-off. For Australian investors, the concern is how an offshore shock could affect funding costs, credit availability and confidence. Companies needing to refinance debt or raise fresh equity can face tougher conditions even without another immediate increase in the domestic cash rate. The review is relevant context for the session’s weakness. It does not establish that the RBA’s warning caused the sell-off, which was already under way during morning trading. Why Wednesday’s relief rally failed to hold Wednesday’s inflation figures offered investors some reassurance about underlying Australian price pressures. Annual headline inflation increased to 4%, but trimmed mean inflation remained at 3.6%, following Tuesday’s RBA increase in the cash rate to 4.60%. That domestic relief ran into a less supportive international backdrop. The US 10-year Treasury yield reached approximately 5.29%, while the 30-year yield climbed to around 5.64%. Softer-than-expected US inflation was insufficient to offset the influence of stronger economic activity and concerns about government borrowing. Higher bond yields increase the returns available from fixed-income investments and reduce the present value of future corporate earnings. That makes it harder to sustain expensive equity valuations, particularly for businesses whose expected profits sit well into the future. Property and healthcare under pressure The S&P/ASX 200 A-REIT index declined 2.73%, falling more sharply than the broader benchmark. Property trusts are sensitive to borrowing costs and the income returns investors demand. Higher yields can increase refinancing expenses and pressure property valuations, although individual exposure depends on debt arrangements, lease structures and rental growth. Healthcare also contained substantial losses. Cochlear Limited (ASX: COH) fell 6.67% to $130.28. Earlier this week, the company disclosed a shareholder class action concerning its fiscal 2026 profit forecast. Cochlear denies the allegations and intends to defend the proceedings. Small caps retreat, but takeover activity attracts buyers The Small Ordinaries traded close to its session low of 3,310.10, although its 1.68% decline was less severe than the ASX 200’s fall. Selling was affecting both smaller companies and market heavyweights. Meteoric Resources Limited (ASX: MEI) provided a striking exception, rising 47.06% to 25 cents following an approximately $968 million all-share takeover proposal from Lynas Rare Earths Limited (ASX: LYC). Under the proposed arrangement, Meteoric shareholders would receive 0.0207 new Lynas shares for each Meteoric share held, subject to conditions and approvals. Lynas declined 7.48% to $12.80. Because the offer uses a fixed share exchange, its implied value moves with Lynas’ share price. The contrasting performances show how an acquisition premium can support a target while investors assess the buyer’s commitments. Liontown falls as expansion spending comes into focus Liontown Limited (ASX: LTR) dropped 11.83% to 82 cents, after touching 81 cents. The decline followed approval of a $389 million expansion at Kathleen Valley, intended to increase annual processing capacity from 2.8 million tonnes to 4.2 million tonnes. Fiscal 2027 capital expenditure guidance increased to $435 million–$495 million. thebull.com.au The project offers potential production growth but increases near-term spending. That funding and execution context is particularly relevant when investors are becoming more cautious about capital-intensive developments. Hiring softens while oil complicates the outlook Australian job vacancies fell 0.9% to 325,000 in the three months to August, following a 2.2% decline in the preceding quarter. Private-sector vacancies decreased 2%, indicating softer demand for workers. Meanwhile, December Brent crude futures settled overnight at US$98.03 a barrel, up 1.9%, as uncertainty surrounding the Iran conflict persisted. Higher fuel costs remain a potential pressure on business margins and inflation. After midday, the Australian dollar traded near US69.45 cents, while Bitcoin was approximately US$83,386, down 0.2%. Samso Concluding Comments The RBA’s warning helps explain the broader vulnerability confronting investors: Australia can have a resilient financial system while its sharemarket remains exposed to rising global borrowing costs and changes in risk appetite. Thursday’s reversal shows how quickly those forces can overwhelm domestic relief. For individual companies, debt obligations, cash reserves and upcoming expenditure remain useful distinctions, while Meteoric’s takeover-driven rally demonstrates that company-specific developments can still attract buyers. Samso Morning market update — Thursday, 1 October 2026 Australian shares fell more than 1% on Thursday morning, erasing Wednesday’s gains as renewed pressure from global bond markets overshadowed relief over domestic inflation. The S&P/ASX 200 dropped 99.70 points, or 1.13%, to 8,689.60, retreating from Wednesday’s three-week closing high of 8,789.30. The benchmark recovered modestly after touching an early low of 8,669.30. Smaller companies followed the broader market lower. The S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries declined 39.30 points, or 1.17%, to 3,329.30, after falling as low as 3,316.00. Both indices had surrendered more than their previous session’s advances, while the supplied sector snapshot showed all 11 sectors in negative territory. Key highlights ASX 200 fell 1.13%, reversing Wednesday’s inflation-driven rally. Small Ordinaries lost 1.17%, with selling extending across company sizes. Meteoric Resources surged 51.47% following a proposed acquisition by Lynas. Liontown declined 10.75%, leading the supplied mid-cap fallers. Higher global bond yields remained an unfavourable backdrop for equities. Bond pressure returns after inflation relief Wednesday’s Australian rally followed steady underlying inflation, which encouraged investors to reduce expectations for another near-term RBA increase after Tuesday’s move to 4.60%. However, the offshore session demonstrated that softer inflation does not necessarily bring lower long-term borrowing costs. The US 10-year Treasury yield finished around 5.29%, while the 30-year yield reached 5.64%. Stronger economic growth and concerns about government borrowing helped sustain pressure on long-dated bonds despite a softer US inflation reading. Wall Street subsequently finished mixed: the Dow Jones fell 0.9%, the S&P 500 declined 0.3%, and the Nasdaq gained 0.2%. Thursday’s Australian sell-off was broader than the premarket futures indication of a roughly 0.5% decline. Meteoric takeover provides a standout exception Meteoric Resources Limited (ASX:MEI) surged 51.47%, with more than 71.5 million shares traded in the supplied morning snapshot. The advance followed the announcement of a proposed acquisition by Lynas Rare Earths Limited (ASX:LYC) through an all-share scheme of arrangement. Meteoric shareholders would receive 0.0207 new Lynas shares for each Meteoric share, subject to the transaction’s conditions and approvals. The acquisition would add Meteoric’s Caldeira rare-earths project in Brazil to Lynas’s portfolio. fool.com.au Lynas shares moved in the opposite direction, falling 5.64%. The divergent responses made the transaction a prominent company story within an otherwise weak resources session. Meteoric’s rise reflected a specific corporate catalyst rather than a broad improvement in demand for rare-earths shares. Healthcare, financials and resources retreat Cochlear Limited (ASX:COH) fell 5.87%, while Suncorp Group Limited (ASX:SUN) declined 5.01% and AMP Limited (ASX:AMP) lost 4.23%. Resources companies also featured prominently among the fallers. Yancoal Australia Limited (ASX:YAL) dropped 4.65%, Capricorn Metals Limited (ASX:CMM) declined 3.69%, and PLS Group Limited (ASX:PLS) fell 3.11%. Northern Star Resources Limited (ASX:NST) retreated 3.51%, giving back part of Wednesday’s takeover-related advance. Regis Resources Limited (ASX:RRL) also lost 3.51%. There were isolated gains. BHP Group Limited (ASX:BHP) added 0.46%, Codan Limited (ASX:CDA) rose 0.68%, and TechnologyOne Limited (ASX:TNE) gained 0.66%. These advances were insufficient to offset the wider decline. Liontown leads mid-cap losses Liontown Limited (ASX:LTR) fell 10.75%, with approximately 34.5 million shares traded. The decline followed the company’s approval of a A$389 million expansion at Kathleen Valley. The project increases its longer-term production ambitions, while also raising near-term capital commitments. The expansion decision provides relevant context, although the share-price decline cannot be attributed solely to that announcement. The Bull Elsewhere, Nickel Industries Limited (ASX:NIC) lost 5.94%, St Barbara Limited (ASX:SBM) fell 4.52%, and Sunrise Energy Metals Limited (ASX:SRL) declined 3.71%. Among the mid-cap gainers, Kelsian Group Limited (ASX:KLS) advanced 8.18%, Life360 Inc. (ASX:360) rose 2.64%, and Predictive Discovery Limited (ASX:PDI) added 1.84%. Small-cap winners emerge despite index weakness Beyond Meteoric, several smaller companies attracted buying. Image Resources NL (ASX:IMA) rose 23.53%, Cettire Limited (ASX:CTT) gained 19.15%, and SRJ Technologies Group plc (ASX:SRJ) advanced 25%. Those individual moves stood against a declining Small Ordinaries index. Small caps were underperforming the ASX 200 only marginally, indicating that the morning’s selling extended across the market rather than being concentrated exclusively in speculative companies. Commodities offer uneven support Overnight, December Brent crude advanced 1.9% to US$98.03 a barrel, while the expiring November contract settled around US$103.50. The difference reflects delivery months rather than an abrupt fall in the oil price. www.reuters.com Nevertheless, the Australian energy sector was lower in the supplied morning snapshot. Copper futures gained 0.2% overnight, while iron ore slipped 0.1% and aluminium declined 1.1%. Gold futures edged higher, but that modest improvement did not prevent losses across several Australian gold producers. Samso Concluding Comments Thursday’s opening reversal shows how quickly domestic inflation relief can be overwhelmed by global financing conditions. The ASX’s return to a three-week closing high proved vulnerable when long-term bond yields rose again. Meteoric’s takeover-driven advance also demonstrates why company research remains important during a broad sell-off. Corporate transactions, funding commitments and operational developments can produce outcomes that differ sharply from the index. Samso Market Update | Pre-market | October 1, 2026 | Australian shares face a weaker start to October as another rise in long-term US bond yields threatens to interrupt the recovery that lifted the ASX 200 to a three-week closing high. ASX futures fell 48 points, or approximately 0.5%, to 8,765 in the latest supplied morning report. The Australian dollar weakened to US69.42 cents, adding another dimension to the outlook for exporters, importers and companies with overseas earnings. The overnight session delivered a familiar tension: softer US inflation reduced expectations for an immediate Federal Reserve increase, but stronger economic growth and rising oil prices kept longer-term borrowing costs elevated. ASX Today: Key highlights ASX futures point lower after Wednesday’s 0.92% advance. US 10-year Treasury yields reached 5.29%, renewing pressure on equity valuations. US annual PCE inflation eased to 3.4%, below the expected 3.7%. Oil advanced, offering a potentially stronger lead for Australian energy producers. Australian trade and job-vacancy figures are the principal domestic releases. Wall Street loses its early momentum US shares initially welcomed the softer inflation report, but the advance faded as investors reassessed the strength of the economy and the continuing rise in long-term yields. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 443.87 points, or 0.9%, to 50,906.05. The S&P 500 lost 19.30 points, or 0.3%, to 7,651.54, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 63.52 points, or 0.2%, to 26,861.06. The mixed finish reflected continued support for selected technology companies despite weakness elsewhere. Among the S&P 500’s strongest performers, Gen Digital Inc. (NASDAQ:GEN) rose 5.61%, Cboe Global Markets Inc. (CBOE:CBOE) gained 5.17%, and Synopsys Inc. (NASDAQ:SNPS) advanced 4.78%. On the downside, Jabil Inc. (NYSE:JBL) dropped 10.03%, Moderna Inc. (NASDAQ:MRNA) fell 5.35%, and AppLovin Corporation (NASDAQ:APP) declined 4.98%. Softer inflation fails to contain bond yields The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, rose 3.4% over the year to August, below expectations of 3.7%. However, the final estimate of second-quarter US economic growth was revised up to an annualised 2.2%, from 1.5%. The combination offered evidence of easing inflation alongside a more resilient economy. Short-term yields initially declined as traders reduced expectations for an October Fed increase. Longer-term bonds followed a different path: the 10-year Treasury yield finished around 5.29%, while the 30-year yield climbed to 5.64%. For Australian equities, the distinction matters. Expectations for fewer immediate policy increases can support sentiment, but high long-term yields still influence corporate funding costs and the valuations investors assign to future earnings. Property companies and highly valued growth businesses therefore face a less supportive offshore lead than Wednesday’s domestic rally might suggest. ASX enters October after inflation-driven rebound The S&P/ASX 200 closed Wednesday at 8,789.30, up 80 points or 0.92%, marking its strongest closing level in three weeks. The All Ordinaries rose 0.93% to 8,969.20, while the Small Ordinaries gained 0.70% to 3,368.60. The advance followed Australia’s August inflation report, which showed annual trimmed-mean inflation holding at 3.6% despite headline inflation accelerating to 4.0%. Investors reduced expectations for another near-term increase after the RBA lifted the cash rate to 4.60% on Tuesday. Listed property was particularly strong, with the A-REIT index gaining 3.60%. Thursday’s opening will test whether that recovery can withstand the renewed pressure from global bonds. Oil rises, with an important contract distinction Oil advanced as stalled US–Iran negotiations and tight fuel markets kept supply concerns in focus. The more actively traded December Brent contract rose 1.9% to US$98.03 a barrel. The expiring November contract finished around US$103.50. These are different delivery contracts; the lower December quotation should not be interpreted as an overnight collapse from above US$103. West Texas Intermediate gained 1.2% to US$90.42 a barrel, according to the supplied morning report. Higher crude provides a potentially favourable lead for Woodside Energy Group Limited (ASX:WDS) and Santos Limited (ASX:STO). For airlines, transport operators and other fuel-intensive businesses, it adds to operating-cost pressure. Metals, currencies and Bitcoin The overnight commodity picture was mixed: Gold futures: up 0.2% to US$4,186.70 an ounce. Spot gold: approximately US$4,155.99 an ounce. Copper futures: up 0.2% to US$6.559 a pound. Aluminium futures: down 1.1% to US$3,285 a tonne. Iron ore futures: down 0.1% to US$96.59 a tonne. Bitcoin: approximately US$83,678 in the morning snapshot. Copper’s modest improvement provides some support for producers, while softer aluminium and iron ore offer a less positive lead for other resources exposures. The weaker Australian dollar can lift the local-currency value of US-dollar commodity revenue, although the benefit varies with hedging arrangements, costs and debt. For importers, the same currency move can increase purchasing costs. Asia finishes mixed; Europe retreats Wednesday’s Asian session was led by Japan, where the Nikkei 225 gained 1.9% to 66,753.72. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.4% to 24,613.27, and the Shanghai Composite added 0.3% to 3,842.19. The Shenzhen Composite slipped 0.2% to 2,404.48, while India’s BSE Sensex declined 0.1% to 72,480.29. European markets finished lower. Britain’s FTSE 100 fell 0.3% to 10,606.00, Germany’s DAX lost 0.8% to 25,199.19, and France’s CAC 40 declined 0.9% to 7,964.51. What to watch Australia’s August international trade figures and job-vacancy report are scheduled for release on Thursday. Vacancies will provide another indication of labour demand, while the trade figures will help assess export performance. Overnight, attention turns to US weekly unemployment claims and the September ISM manufacturing survey. Both will help investors assess whether economic resilience continues to sustain elevated bond yields. Samso Concluding Comments The opening challenge is whether Australian shares can retain Wednesday’s improvement in sentiment while global financing conditions remain restrictive. Small caps participated in the previous session’s recovery, but their funding needs and longer development timelines can make them sensitive to sustained high borrowing costs. Energy producers have a stronger commodity lead, while property and growth stocks face a more difficult valuation backdrop. The useful focus remains on companies with sufficient funding, credible earnings and measurable operational progress as October begins.

Coffee with Samso Episode 203 may well be one of the best ASX small-cap resource businesses in 2025, that is largely unknown to the general investing community. The Cyclone Metals Limited (ASX:CLE) is about the pedigree of the Iron Bear magnetite project. In Australia, the general ASX punter thinks of iron ore as haematite greater than 62% Fe, but there is a new sheriff in town and he is called Magnetite. Where can you find a mineral resource business that is owned by a small cap junior with a market capitalisation of less than AUD $50M that has funding all the way through to mining and processing the high-grade iron pellets? Just remember that Cyclone Metals was an AUD $10M market cap company when it started the journey. The transitioning from haematite to magnetite in the iron ore industry is happening and it is largely driven by the depleting of high-grade haematite iron ore. - Paul Berend In this episode of Coffee with Samso we are talking to Paul Berend, Executive Director and CEO of Cyclone Metals Limited (ASX:CLE). Cyclone is a fascinating story of a junior aspiring to be a producer with a major, VALE, partnering with funding. A space in which most juniors would be struggling to find funding, CLE has a big brother taking care of all the bills. The Business of Cyclone Metals Limited. The steel-producing industry is transitioning to low emission and the process of Direct Reduction (DR) steel production is the solution to a global reduction in emission for the typically high carbon emission business. Direct Reduction steel production requires iron pellets that are very low in impurities and this is directly controlled by the quality of the source material. As Paul Berend explains, ....not all magnetite deposits are suitable for Direct Reduction Pellets which is why the Iron Bear deposit is perfectly aligned to allow this process to be achieved. Recent work by Cyclone Metals Limited has shown that the use of Direct Reduction on iron ore from Iron Bear can create iron pellets above 71% Fe content. According to Paul Berend, this is a very unique feature of the ore body. A feature that is not seen in many other iron ore resources and that includes those at Champion Iron. Click Below to Watch the Coffee with Samso: Paul proudly points out in the Coffee with Samso, The quality and the size of the Iron Bear Deposit moved the needle for VALE to take a position with Cyclone Metals. This is a great conversation with Paul Berend as he explains the story of Cyclone Metals clearly and in great detail. Chapters: 00:00 Start. 00:08 Introduction. 04:10 Who is Paul Berend? 05:24 The Magnetite Story - Why Have We Not Embraced it Yet? 08:44 Transition of Value from Haematite to Magnetite. 09:41 Carbon Footprint of Magnetite. 10:07 Rise of Magnetite Projects? 10:33 Depletion of Brazilian High-Grade Iron Ores -The Reason Why VALE is in CLE. 10:51 Importance of Direct Reduction (DR) Steel Production. 11:57 Only Way to Make Direct Reduction Steel - Premium of DR Pellets. 13:05 DR Pellet Market Comparison. 13:48 How Do You Make Direct Reduction Pellets? 15:14 Reason Why DR Pellet Production is Rare. 15:47 Comparison of Low Impurity Iron Deposits. 16:30 DR Player requires an ABILITY to Reduce Impurities. 18:01 How much of the Current Resource will transition to Reserve Status? 19:08 Iron Bear is a Low Stripping Ration deposit. 19:30 Metallurgy Will Increase the Economics of Iron Bear. 21:30 What is the main Business of Cyclone Metals? Is it DR Production? 22:26 Is Iron Bear DR Capabilities why Vale is interested? 23:18 Iron Bear can supply high-grade iron ore all the way to DR levels. 25:07 How Did the Agreement with Vale Evolve? 26:55 How important was the 10M? 28:30 Earning a Mandate to Operate Socially. 29:25 Importance of the First Nations Conversations. 32:12 How Important is the Relationship with First Nation Groups? 33:42 The Reasons why Vale could be the Reason for Success for Iron Bear. 36:24 Potentially One Technical Challenge for Iron Bear - Dry Tailings. 37:34 The Importance of Earning a Mandate To Operate 39:07 Twitter Shareholder Questions 39:27 Will the Trump Tariffs affect the Iron Bear Business? 40:48 The Vision of Iron Bear - It is a Bigger project than Champion Iron. 41:58 Reducing the Carbon Footprint of a Manufacturing Hub in Northern America. 43:25 How much is the resource expected to be built up to? 43:58 Iron Bear is a Premium Magnetite project. 45:15 What cost will the hydroelectric power cost us per kilowatt? 46:51 Green Energy Narration - Magnetite Naturally Reduces Carbon Emissions. 49:48 Discussion on iron ore prices. 54:23 Why is CLE still at 50M? 55:21 Why is there a feeling of disbelief in the Cyclone story? 58:02 The misunderstanding of the Iron Ore industry. 01:00:54 Takeaway. 01:01:18 Conclusion. PODCAST About Paul Berend Paul Berend brings over 25 years of leadership experience in the iron ore and steel industries, gained across blue-chip corporations and junior mining ventures. His corporate background includes senior roles such as GM Corporate Strategy at ArcelorMittal, GM Business Development at Rio Tinto Iron Ore and Director Australasia at Hatch. Paul is a passionate mining entrepreneur and was a founder and historic CEO of Trans-Tasman Resources Ltd (a titano-magnetite project in New Zealand ASX: MKR) and has played a key role in a number of private early-stage exploration ventures. In addition to his entrepreneurial work, Paul has a successful track record in turning around distressed producing mines and steel mills in difficult jurisdiction including Australia, PNG, Europe, GCC and Africa. He is a trusted advisor for Tier one natural resource companies, supporting operational, organisational and growth strategies. In this capacity, Paul’s previous employers include McKinsey& Company and Partners in Performance. Paul has an MBA from HEC (Paris, France), a MSc and DEA (~PhD) in chemical process design and chemistry from ENSIC (Nancy, France), a bachelor’s in applied mathematics and algebra from Harvard University (Cambridge, USA) and is a Graduate of the Australian Institute of Company Directors. He speaks native and English and French as well as professional German. About Cyclone Metals Limited Cyclone Metals owns and operates the Iron Bear magnetite iron ore project, formerly known as the Block 103 Project. The Iron Bear Project consists of ten licenses totalling 7,275 ha on 291 graticular Mineral Claims under the applicable Labrador and Newfoundland mining regulation, located near the Provincial border of Newfoundland and Labrador (NL) and Quebec (QC), approximately 30 km northwest of the town of Schefferville, QC and 1,200 km by air northeast of Montréal, QC. The Iron Bear properties are located within 25 km of an open access heavy haul railway which is directly connected to the Sept Isles and Pointe Noire iron ore export ports. In addition, the Iron Bear has potential access to cheap renewable energy from the Menihek hydro-plant located 75km away. These two factors substantially improve the prospects for eventual economic extraction of the Iron Bear mineral resource. Notably, large scale iron ore export operations currently operate in the Labrador Trough; including IOC (Rio Tinto), Champion Iron and Tata Steel; all sharing the same rail and port infrastructure. Highlights: World Class Iron Ore Project: Mineral resource of 16.6 billion tonnes containing 29.3% total Fe and 18.2% magnetic Fe, cut-off grade 12.5% magnetic Fe. Low OPEX: Estimated OPEX of USD 35.6/t3 FOB Pointe Noire for blast furnace concentrate due to access to low-cost hydropower Strategic Tier 1 Asset: Iron ore asset with flexible development scenarios and the potential to ramp up production to over 100 Mta Mining Friendly Jurisdiction and Proximity to Infrastructure: Iron Bear located in Canada, less than 25km from an open access heavy haul railway with proximity to low cost to hydro-power High Quality Product: Production of high quality magnetite concentrate grading 71,3% Fe and 1.1% SiO2 in industrial pilot plant Fast Track Project Development: Underpinned by the supply of bulk samples of DR and BF concentrates to mill clients by Q2 2024 To support our independent nature of our work, please head over to our Support Page and give us a helping hand in any of the ways listed. This is a new initiate for the Samso Platform, and it was always the concept of Samso when we started this journey in 2018. Disclaimer The information or opinions provided herein do not constitute investment advice, an offer or solicitation to subscribe for, purchase or sell the investment product(s) mentioned herein. It does not take into consideration, nor have any regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation, risk profile, tax position and particular, or unique needs and constraints. Read full Disclaimer. Share to Grow: Your Bonus Samso has just released an eBook: How to Add Value to your Share Portfolio A lesson on geological models sought by mining companies that gives insight and an understanding of which portfolios are better - and potentially more lucrative – investments. Click here to download this eBook. If you find this article informative and useful, please help me share the information. I try and write about topics that are interesting and have the potential to be of investment value. It is not easy to find stories that fit those parameters. If you or your organisation see the benefit of what Samso is trying to achieve and have a need to share your journey, please contact me on noel.ong@samso.com.au. About Samso Samso is a trusted platform that equips dedicated investors with up-to-date industry knowledge and insights from top CEOs and thought leaders. By staying informed on business advancements and market trends, investors can enhance their financial decisions through a combination of expert guidance and their own research.

The gold price has fallen roughly 28% from its January 2026 record high, and the share prices of small gold companies have fallen even harder. This Insight walks through twelve ASX-listed gold small-caps, one by one, in plain language. For each company we ask two simple questions. Does the project stack up as a real, money-making mine? And does the company look like the kind of business a bigger gold miner would want to buy? The evidence suggests the sell-off has been applied to strong and weak companies alike. In my experience, conditions like these have usually preceded the strongest recoveries. Samso Insights Research Investors Samso Market Strategy WHAT THIS PIECE COVERS 1.00 · THE SETUP Gold fell 28 per cent. Gold shares fell a great deal further. 2.00 · THE TWELVE One table, twelve companies, each on its own announcements. 3.00 · COMPANY BY COMPANY The new producers, who poured gold while their shares fell. 4.00 · THE DISCOUNT QUESTION Whether these companies were really marked down, and on what. 5.00 · TWO PATHS TO VALUE The company builds the mine, or somebody buys the company. 6.00 · CLOSING THE LOOP The milestones happened. The share prices have not caught up. 1.00 · THE SETUP Gold Price fell 28%. Gold shares fell much further. Gold peaked at about US$5,597 an ounce on 29 January 2026. By mid-July 2026 it was trading around US$4,000 to US$4,100, a fall of roughly 28%, although the price is still about 20% higher than it was a year ago. The main reason for the fall is favoired to be caused by gloabal interest rate uncertainty. Fresh conflict between the US and Iran has pushed oil prices up, markets now expect the US Federal Reserve to raise rates rather than cut them, and higher interest rates generally make gold, which pays no interest, less attractive to hold, theoritically. Now the part that matters for Australian gold companies. Australian miners sell their gold in Australian dollars, and in our currency the price is still remarkably high, and ain mid July, that is roughly A$5,700 per ounce, as of 19th July 2026. That figure moves every day, so check a live price before relying on it. Why does it matter? Because the cost of digging up an ounce of gold at most of the projects in this note sits somewhere between about A$1,400 and A$3,400. Even after the correction, the profit margin per ounce remains very large by historical standards. Every mine plan discussed below was designed and tested using a gold price of A$5,000 to A$6,000 an ounce or lower, which means every one of them still works at today's price. Since January, investors have sold ASX gold companies far harder than the metal itself fell. On 23 March 2026 alone, a sector-wide sell-off reduced some of these share prices by more than 10% in a single day, with no bad news from the companies themselves. By June, gold shares were trading as if the gold price had collapsed, when in reality it was still above US$4,000. FIGURE 1 · The gold price over the last 24 months: weekly closing prices of COMEX front-month gold futures in US$ per ounce, July 2024 to 14 July 2026. The rise through 2025, the peak in early 2026 and the fall back toward US$4,000 are all visible. Weekly closes understate the extremes; the intraday record was about US$5,597 on 29 January 2026. Source: Yahoo Finance price history, accessed 14 July 2026. Verify against a live price feed. That gap between what the companies have actually achieved and what their share prices say is the subject of this note. When nervous investors sell "gold" as a category, they sell everything. Companies that spent the past year raising money, finishing mine studies, winning approvals and pouring their first gold are sold down alongside companies that achieved nothing. Our July note argued the gold price is settling into a base, not collapsing. If that is right, the discounted small-cap end of the ASX offers the greatest leverage to a recovery. Samso take · why a watchlist, why now The twelve companies below come from a working watchlist rather than a quantitative screen. They cover the whole life cycle of a gold company, from early-stage explorers still drilling holes through to brand-new producers that poured their first gold bar this year (Figure 2). What they share is this: each one delivered a real, verifiable milestone during the exact months the market was marking them down. That gap between delivery and share price is where patient investors have historically built their best positions. It is also where larger gold companies, which have been acquiring ASX gold developers since 2024, look for acquisitions. 1.50 · BEFORE WE START How to read the numbers in this note Mining has its own language, and it can make simple ideas sound complicated. Below is a plain-English guide to every term used in this note. If you read nothing else in this section, read the first three entries. Ounces (oz, koz, Moz) Gold is measured in troy ounces. "koz" means thousand ounces and "Moz" means million ounces. A Mineral Resource of 1Moz means geologists estimate about a million ounces of gold sit in the ground, worth roughly A$6 billion at today's price before the very large cost of getting it out. Grade (g/t) How much gold each tonne of rock contains, in grams per tonne. Around 1g/t is low-grade (you need to move a lot of rock), 2 to 3g/t is solid, 4g/t and above is high-grade, and anything over about 10g/t is exceptional. Higher grade generally means more profit per truckload. Mineral Resource: inferred, indicated, measured An estimate of the gold in the ground, prepared under the JORC Code, the Australian reporting standard. The three categories describe confidence. Inferred is the rough first estimate, indicated means enough drilling has been done to plan a mine around it, and measured is the highest confidence. Banks and buyers pay far more attention to indicated and measured ounces. Scoping study → PFS → DFS The three levels of study that assess whether a mine would be profitable, in increasing detail and cost. A scoping study is the first rough sketch. A Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS) is a serious engineering estimate. A Definitive (or Bankable) Feasibility Study (DFS) is detailed enough for banks to lend against. NPV (net present value) The headline number from a mine study: all the future profit the mine is expected to make, converted into today's dollars, because a dollar earned in ten years is worth less than one earned now. The small subscript, such as NPV8, is the discount rate used in that conversion. A rough rule of thumb: if a company's entire sharemarket value sits well below its project's NPV, the market is either doubting the study or ignoring it. Note that "pre-tax" NPVs look bigger than "post-tax" ones, and this note flags which is which. IRR (internal rate of return) The project's annual rate of return on the money invested to build it. Anything above about 25% is considered attractive. Several projects here report over 70%, which is exceptional and reflects today's high gold price. AISC (all-in sustaining cost) The most honest cost measure: roughly what it costs, all things included, to produce one ounce. If AISC is A$3,000 and gold sells for A$6,000, the miner keeps about A$3,000 per ounce before tax and growth spending. Toll milling / toll treatment Paying to process your ore through someone else's plant instead of building your own. Building a processing plant costs hundreds of millions of dollars, so toll milling lets a small company start earning gold revenue quickly and cheaply. The trade-off is paying fees and depending on someone else's schedule. Capex, placement, SPP, FID Capex is the money needed to build the mine. A placement is a share sale to big investors to raise cash, and an SPP (share purchase plan) is the version offered to existing everyday shareholders. FID, the final investment decision, is the board formally saying "we are building it." Market capitalisation The sharemarket's total price tag on the company: share price multiplied by the number of shares. Comparing market cap with project NPV, cash in the bank, or ounces in the ground is how investors judge whether a stock looks cheap or expensive. 2.00 · THE TWELVE One table, twelve stories The table below (Table 1) summarises each company using its own ASX announcements, with dates given in each profile in Section 3. Treat every number as approximate and check it against the original announcement before acting on it. Resource estimates, study results and funding details are exactly as the companies reported them. Share prices and company valuations change daily, which is why there is no market-value column here. Each profile in Section 3 instead includes a 24-month share price chart, so the rise to the early-2026 high and the fall since can be seen directly. TABLE 1 · The twelve watchlist companies, summarised in plain language from their own ASX announcements. Every study value quoted in this note was calculated by the company at a gold price lower than today's, an important point we return to in Section 4. Source: company ASX announcements; Samso compilation. Verify all figures against the original releases. FIGURE 2 · The watchlist spans the full life cycle of a gold company, from explorer to producer. That spread matters, because recoveries rarely lift all stages at once. Producers usually recover first and explorers last. Source: Samso framework; company disclosures. 3.00 · COMPANY BY COMPANY The new producers: they poured gold while their shares fell Three of the twelve produced their first gold during the very months the gold price was falling, an unlucky accident of timing that has limited the market response to the milestone. For a small company, the first gold pour marks the transition from development story to operating business. ASX: WWI West Wits Mining: a new producer in the Witwatersrand Basin Qala Shallows, near Johannesburg, South Africa · 7.24 million oz at 4.0g/t West Wits is restarting mining in the Witwatersrand Basin, the goldfield beneath Johannesburg that has produced more gold than anywhere else on Earth. On 17 March 2026 the company poured its first gold, making Qala Shallows the first new underground gold mine built in South Africa in more than fifteen years. Its ore is processed at neighbouring giant Sibanye-Stillwater's plant under a toll milling arrangement (see the guide above), so West Wits did not need to build its own. The numbers behind it are substantial: a gold estimate of 7.24 million ounces at a healthy 4.0g/t grade, upgraded 44% in February 2026, and a completed mine study valuing the project at US$500 million after tax. That valuation was calculated at a gold price of US$2,850/oz, which is about US$1,150 below today's price. In June 2026 two major South African banks, Absa and Nedbank, signed off a ZAR1.115 billion loan package (very roughly A$95m) that fully funds the build-up toward the target of around 70,000 ounces a year from late 2028. A study on expanding to around 200,000 ounces a year, called Project 200, is due around the end of July 2026. Is it a real mine? Yes, and the strongest proof is that two big banks put their own money behind it. The risk now is the ramp-up. The gold grade coming out of the ground must rise toward 3g/t as mining moves into the richer ore zones, and South African projects always trade at a discount with Australian investors because of the country's political and power-supply history. Takeover appeal: a 7.2-million-ounce deposit next door to Sibanye, already using Sibanye's plant, is an obvious fit for its giant neighbour. The bank funding reduces the pressure to sell, because West Wits no longer needs a buyer to fund development. ASX: CEL Challenger Gold: first gold, a US$1.1 billion study, and Peter Marrone joining the board Hualilan, San Juan province, Argentina · 2.8 million oz (gold-equivalent), plus projects in Ecuador Challenger illustrates the pattern described in this note. The shares reportedly fell about 48% in the six months to May 2026. In that same window the company started mining, poured its first gold in June 2026 (about 500oz of gold and 6,000oz of silver from the first batch of ore, processed through neighbour Austral Gold's plant). The compnay then published a study on the full-scale mine showing a value of roughly US$1.1 billion after tax at a US$3,500/oz gold price, with a build cost of about US$232m and steady production of 135,000 ounces a year. In May the company raised A$85 million at 12 cents a share, led by Peter Marrone, the founder of Yamana Gold, who invested roughly A$10m of his own money and will become chairman, bringing Yamana's former operations chief with him. A 20-for-1 share consolidation is planned, which changes the share price but not the company's value. Challenger also holds a separate 4.5-million-ounce project in Ecuador, right beside a deposit that China's CMOC recently bought, and the market currently gives it almost nothing for that. Is it a real mine? The sequencing is the notable feature. The small-scale processing deal brings in cash now, without borrowing or issuing more shares, while the big mine study is finished. The discount is Argentina itself, meaning currency and political risk, though San Juan is that country's most mining-friendly province. Takeover appeal: when one of the industry's most respected mine builders personally buys in and takes the chairman's seat while the shares sit near their lows, it indicates that experienced industry figures assess the asset as worth substantially more than the current price. Whether Challenger ends up as acquirer or target, that positioning occurred before any share price recovery. ASX: WGR Western Gold Resources: a small, near-term toll-mining operation Gold Duke, near Wiluna, WA · 277,000oz Western Gold's plan is straightforward: mine ore from four small, already-approved open pits and truck it 46km to someone else's plant for processing. The board formally approved mining in December 2025, a decision that briefly sent the shares to a four-year high, after drilling 35,000m of closely spaced holes to confirm exactly where the gold sits. This "grade control" drilling reduces the risk of the mined ore differing from the plan. Funding needed only a modest A$6.75m share sale plus an arrangement where the mining contractor defers part of its fees. The company's own numbers for this first stage point to about 42,800 ounces of production, generating an estimated cash surplus of roughly A$109.7m. That is a large figure relative to the company's small size, though it assumes the Australian-dollar gold price stays high and everything runs to plan. Site works began in early 2026 with first gold targeted for around mid-2026, and readers should check the company's latest quarterly report to confirm timing. Is it a real mine? Yes, but a small and unforgiving one. At this scale a single problem, whether the ore carries less gold than expected or the plant runs late, can remove much of the profit. The heavy up-front drilling may provide some form of insurance. Takeover appeal: at 277,000oz, Gold Duke is more likely to be bought as extra plant feed by a bigger Wiluna-district player than as a company-making prize. That outcome would still deliver value to shareholders, provided mining confirms the estimated gold. The funded builders: money in the bank, processing plants on the way In WA's goldfields, ownership of a processing plant separates small toll-treatment operators from substantial mining businesses. Paying to use another company's plant works, but the fees and scheduling limits reduce profits. The three companies below raised, between them, well over half a billion dollars during the sell-off to build or refurbish their own plants. Their share prices received little benefit. ASX: BTR Brightstar Resources: fully funded to build its own plant Laverton–Menzies and Sandstone regions, WA · more than 4 million oz in total Brightstar already earns gold revenue from two small underground mines, with its ore bought and processed by larger neighbour Genesis Minerals. The planned development is larger. Its January 2026 mine study, a full bank-quality DFS, maps out a Brightstar-owned processing plant at Laverton producing about 75,000 ounces a year, worth A$606m before tax at an assumed gold price of A$6,000/oz. That assumption is below today's price, and the study says the plant would pay for itself in about 17 months. Crucially, the money is already raised: roughly A$383 million in total, made up of about A$193m from share sales (including an offer to everyday shareholders that proved so popular it was upsized) plus a US$120m bond. Construction was slated to begin mid-2026 with first gold from the new plant targeted for mid-2027. Behind that sits a second act at Sandstone, where Brightstar has bought up neighbouring companies to assemble 2.4 million ounces, most of it shallow and cheap to mine, with the first serious study due around September 2026. The company's stated ambition is 200,000 ounces a year across both hubs. The share price was sold down to about 30 cents in the 23 March sector rout, a near-12% fall in one day with no company news, while an independent research firm published valuations several times higher. That is one firm's opinion rather than a market consensus, but it gives a measure of the gap. Is it a real mine? This is one of the most complete packages on the ASX at its size: gold in the ground with high confidence, a finished bank-grade study, permits, all the money, and revenue already coming in. What remains is execution, which means building the plant on time and on budget. What is an overhanging issue is the market feels that the grades may be a problem to come in "lower" gold pricing and rising costs. Takeover appeal: Brightstar has been the one doing the buying so far. Even so, a fully funded, 4-million-ounce, two-region gold business trading well below the value of just one of its projects is exactly the maths that attracted takeover bids for De Grey, Spartan and Gold Road. It could end up as buyer and target at the same time. ASX: MRT Maritana Minerals: converting a nickel plant into a gold plant Black Swan plant and several gold deposits around Kalgoorlie, WA · ~1.9 million oz Regular Samso readers know this one. We covered it as Horizon Minerals and again after its April 2026 rename. The plan is straightforward: instead of spending years and hundreds of millions building a new processing plant, Maritana bought an existing nickel plant (Black Swan, just outside Kalgoorlie, connected to grid power and sealed roads) and is converting it to process gold. The mine study around that plan points to about 102,000 ounces a year for an initial five years, worth roughly A$631m before tax at an assumed A$5,500/oz gold price. The money is done, for now. A A$175m share placement in February 2026 plus a shareholder offer left about A$114m cash and no debt in March. While the plant is converted, existing small-scale mining continues to generate revenue, and drilling at the old Burbanks mine has returned very high grades, including one interval of 4.2 metres at 42g/t with a slice at 127g/t. Remember from the guide that 4g/t counts as high-grade. First gold through Black Swan is targeted for late 2026. In mid-April the sharemarket valued the whole company at about A$333m, roughly half the study's stated project value, for a business that is funded and already earning. Is it a real mine? The numbers are strong, with the honest caveats we have flagged before. Its production cost of about A$3,353 an ounce is comfortable while gold is above A$6,000, but it leaves less cushion than lower-cost peers if the price falls, and converting a nickel plant to gold is a substantial engineering task. Takeover appeal: a permitted, grid-connected processing plant near Kalgoorlie is genuinely scarce, since companies wait years for approvals to build one. Comparable plants have historically attracted corporate buyers when the share market has not valued them. ASX: TGM Theta Gold Mines: building a mine in a historic South African goldfield TGME Project, Pilgrim's Rest, South Africa · 6.1 million oz Theta is reviving a cluster of historic gold mines around the old town of Pilgrim's Rest, north-east of Johannesburg. Its updated mine study (3 February 2026) describes a 13-year operation producing about 871,000 ounces in total at a strong grade of 4.28g/t, generating A$1.4 billion of free cash and worth A$689m after tax. All of that was calculated at a gold price of US$2,884/oz, barely 70% of today's price. Construction is underway with more than 140 people on site, and first gold is targeted for early 2027. The funding was completed in June 2026 through a US$90m bond plus final share placements, including roughly US$15.6m from an investment group associated with Chengtun Mining, a multi-billion-dollar Chinese-listed miner. Open conversations has linked possible future deals together. Beyond stage one sit more than forty historic mines and a further 3.6 million ounces, supporting a long-term ambition of 160,000 ounces a year. Is it a real mine? The high grade and shallow, walk-in tunnel access (no expensive deep shafts) are real advantages. The risks are the standard South African set: layered permitting, the requirement that local empowerment partners hold 26% of the operating companies, and restarting a district that has not operated at scale in living memory. Takeover appeal: a strategic Chinese miner taking a position on the register during construction indicates corporate interest in the asset. Watch whether Chengtun's stake grows. The study-stage developers: the homework is done, the decision comes next ASX: BGD Barton Gold: large early cash margins from the starter pits Tunkillia and Tarcoola, outback South Australia · 2.2 million oz gold plus 3.1 million oz silver Barton's Tunkillia project is a big, bulk-mining story. The gold grade is modest at 0.87g/t on average, but there is a lot of it, and the key detail is that the first pits to be mined are much richer than the average. The company's May 2025 study sketched a mine producing about 120,000 ounces of gold a year plus silver, worth roughly A$1.4 billion before tax, with the first two pits alone modelled to generate about A$1.3 billion of operating cash in just the first 27 months. That was calculated at A$5,000/oz, now, not so well below today's price. The work in 2026 has been about turning that sketch into a bankable plan. The drilling program was expanded to about 40,000m in June after early results suggested more gold at better grades inside the planned pits. According to the company, specialist drilling for engineering and processing data has been running since April, the formal Pre-Feasibility Study is due before the end of 2026, and a mining licence application and funding talks follow in 2027. Two potential extras the simple comparisons miss: Barton owns the only gold processing plant in its region, and it has made a promising high-grade silver discovery called Tolmer that it is now drilling. Similarly, the market consensus point to a long drive to the Challenger MIll and the old phrase, "Grade Is King", especially in a lowering of the gold price. Is it a real mine? Plausibly, on scale and those rich starter pits. A 120,000-ounce-a-year mine costs serious money to build, however, and that financing hill still lies ahead after the study. The end-2026 PFS is the key document. Takeover appeal: South Australia's gold country has barely been consolidated, and a 2.2-million-ounce deposit plus the region's only plant is the natural centrepiece. Realistically, Barton is more likely to be bought at the study stage than to build alone, and that may be the strategy. ASX: PGL Pilbara Gold: 2.1 million ounces of easy-to-process ore in the Pilbara Mt York, the Pilbara, WA (plus Roe Hills near Kalgoorlie) · 2.1 million oz Formerly Kairos Minerals, the company renamed itself Pilbara Gold in April 2026 to match its main asset: Mt York, a 2.1-million-ounce deposit that was partly mined in the 1990s. Two things make it attractive. First, the ore is "free-milling", meaning the gold comes out easily with standard, cheap processing and none of the complex treatment some ores demand. Second, the mineralisation runs continuously for 4.2km inside a single planned pit. An initial study in late 2024 pointed to a conventional open-pit operation, and 2026 is the year of the serious work: about 50,000m of drilling to grow the deposit and lift confidence before a Pre-Feasibility Study, plus first-time gold estimates at its second project near Kalgoorlie. The shares were caught in the sector's June selling despite no bad news from the company, a pattern that recurs throughout this note. Is it a real mine? Possibly, after this year's drilling. The easy processing and existing Pilbara roads and services help, but the deposit needs more high-confidence ounces before a build decision could stand up. Samso is sceptical at this stage as the project had every chance to have been at this stage several yuears ago, priro to the recent gold price hike. THe lack of devotion to it under current management makes me feel that there are some deposit issues. What is great for PGL is the rising gold price. Takeover appeal: the Pilbara has already produced the template, with De Grey's Hemi discovery taken over by Northern Star for billions. A growing deposit of over 2 million ounces in the same region is precisely what mid-sized acquirers screen for. ASX: SMS Star Minerals: a very small, near-term toll-mining plan Tumblegum South, near Meekatharra, WA · small deposit, approval-ready Star Minerals holds a very small, approval-ready gold deposit that the company plans to mine in a short campaign, trucking the ore to a nearby third-party plant for processing. Approvals, agreements and early site work have been reported through late 2025 and 2026, and market commentary has noted renewed speculative interest as first mining approaches. We deliberately quote fewer numbers here. The deposit is modest and the economics are of the short-campaign kind, so readers should take scale and profit expectations directly from the company's own announcements rather than from any second-hand summary, including this one. Is it a real mine? A real but tiny one. A short toll-milling campaign can produce meaningful cash next to a very small company value at today's gold price, but there is no margin for error. One batch of ore grading below plan, or a processing delay, changes the whole outcome. Takeover appeal: realistically a small bolt-on acquisition for a larger Meekatharra-region miner rather than a target in its own right. Its location in the Meekatharra district, which it shares with Great Boulder below, is the relevant factor. The explorers: drilling through the downturn ASX: GBR Great Boulder Resources: a million ounces beside existing processing plants Side Well, right beside Meekatharra, WA (plus the newly acquired Peak Hill) · 1.02 million oz at 2.0g/t In December 2025 Great Boulder's Side Well project reached 1.02 million ounces. The quality matters as much as the quantity. Some 61% of those ounces are in the higher-confidence "indicated" category that mine plans are built on, about 90% sit shallow enough for open-pit mining (the cheap kind), and the main Mulga Bill deposit contains a rich core of 441,000oz at 5.3g/t. Drilling since then has returned exceptionally high grades, including a March 2026 interval of 1.93 metres at 574 grams per tonne with a section at 4,434g/t. Mining lease applications are lodged, the company reported about A$12m in the bank at 1 March, and in mid-2026 it agreed to buy the neighbouring Peak Hill project, funded by a roughly A$40m share raising. Location is the other key point: Side Well is directly beside Meekatharra's established processing plants, owned by companies that require ongoing ore supply. Is it a real mine? Not yet, and deliberately so. The strategy appear to be one of growing the deposit until either a development decision or a takeover offer becomes the logical outcome. The A$40m raising dilutes existing holders, and that is the price of the Peak Hill option. Takeover appeal: a million-plus ounces, high confidence, shallow, high-grade, sitting beside operating plants. This matches the profile of recent WA gold takeover targets. The Peak Hill purchase indicates management intends to be the acquirer, although either outcome remains possible. ASX: AKA Aureka: growing both ounces and grade in Victoria Irvine (Stawell district) and Comstock (St Arnaud), western Victoria · ~455,000oz in total Aureka, the renamed Navarre Minerals, has done something most juniors never manage: it has grown its gold ounces and its grade at the same time. Usually, adding ounces means adding lower-grade material around the edges, and the average grade drifts down. A mid-2026 update lifted the company's total estimate 26% to about 455,000oz, with the flagship Irvine deposit rising to 398,000oz at 2.59g/t, up from 2.43g/t, after a new geological interpretation of a structure called the Tenacity Fault. The company achieved that from only about 5,000m of drilling, which is remarkably efficient. Recent months added a new drill target 900m from the existing deposit and an experienced recruit in Dr Barry Murphy, whose targeting work helped Predictive Discovery find a 5.5-million-ounce deposit in Africa. The near-term option is Comstock, an old open-pit mine at St Arnaud where a mid-2026 concept study outlined a fast, cheap restart using the existing pit ramp and a nearby third-party plant. Two honest caveats apply. All of Aureka's ounces are still in the lowest-confidence "inferred" category, and processing tests have not been done, though the 5-million-ounce Stawell Gold Mine, 16km up the road, has processed the same style of ore for decades. Is it a real mine? Comstock could become a small, self-funding starter operation while Irvine grows toward the company's stated million-ounce ambition. Upgrading resource confidence and completing processing tests are the outstanding homework. Takeover appeal: Victoria's established gold operators, including Stawell's owners just up the corridor, permanently need ore close to their plants. At the roughly 10-cent share level reported in June, this optionality looks cheaply priced relative to the geology. ASX: GA8 GoldArc Resources: an early-stage explorer in the Leonora district Mt Stirling and surrounds, Leonora district, WA · ~200,000oz at 1.82g/t GoldArc, rebranded from Asra Minerals in September 2025 alongside a share consolidation and a A$3.2m raising, is the earliest-stage company here: about 200,000oz across a large ground position around Leonora, one of the busiest and most frequently transacted gold districts in WA. The 2026 drilling news has been genuinely encouraging, with a high-grade gold system confirmed at the Eclipse prospect in April, followed weeks later by bonanza-grade results along a 5km trend called Niagara. The shares traded around 6 cents in early July. Investors should recognise what this is: high-risk discovery investing. The existing 200,000oz is too small to build anything on, and the investment case rests on one of these new prospects turning into something much bigger. Is it a real mine? Not at this size. A deposit of 200,000oz is plant feed for a neighbour, not a mine of its own. Takeover appeal: the real asset is the land, positioned between Leonora's active acquirers. A genuine discovery at Eclipse or Niagara would likely draw corporate interest almost immediately. Without one, the company depends on share markets that are currently very tough on explorers. 4.00 · THE DISCOUNT QUESTION Have these companies really been marked down? Yes, and mostly without discrimination. Exact share-price falls for each company change daily and belong in a live spreadsheet, not a published note, so pull up the charts yourself. But the documented markers through this correction tell one consistent story, in three parts. 1. The selling was about "gold", not about these companies. Brightstar fell nearly 12% in one session (23 March 2026) in a sell-off explicitly attributed to the gold sector, in the same quarter it finished raising A$383m. Pilbara Gold was sold down in June with, on public information, nothing wrong at the company. Challenger fell roughly 48% over six months while becoming a gold producer. When fully funded builders and brand-new producers fall alongside explorers that have found nothing yet, the market is selling the category rather than judging the businesses. 2. The share prices now sit below the studies' own assumptions. Every mine study quoted in this note was calculated at a gold price below today's: Theta used US$2,884/oz, West Wits US$2,850, Challenger US$3,500, Brightstar A$6,000, Maritana A$5,500 and Barton A$5,000, against a mid-July spot price around US$4,000 to US$4,100, or roughly A$6,000 and above. The project economics published in those studies therefore remain valid at current prices. What has changed is the share prices, which in some cases have fallen below the values the studies support. Maritana is the clearest documented example: in April the market valued the company at about A$333m, roughly half the A$631m pre-tax value stated in its own funded project study. 3. Institutional and strategic capital continued to flow in. During the same months the shares were being sold, Brightstar raised about A$383m, Maritana about A$180m, and Challenger A$85m in a placement led by Peter Marrone. Theta closed roughly US$186m of equity plus a US$90m bond, with a strategic Chinese miner subscribing. West Wits signed a ZAR1.115bn debt package with two major banks, and Great Boulder raised about A$40m to fund an acquisition. Institutions, banks and strategic investors committed capital at prices the broader share market was rejecting. The two views cannot both be correct. The bear case · read this before the bull case Sometimes a discount is deserved. If gold breaks below the US$3,800 to US$4,000 floor our July note argued for, the Australian-dollar cushion shrinks, and the higher-cost operations on this list (those producing at roughly A$2,850 to A$3,350 an ounce) lose their profit margin fastest. Mine builders can exceed their budgets, since construction costs in WA have been rising for years, and every "first gold in 2026 or 2027" date above is a forecast, not a fact. The South African and Argentine projects carry country risk that studies do not capture. The explorers at the bottom of the list are spending cash into a market that currently punishes companies for issuing new shares. Readers wnating to invest like "Professionals" should manage this end of the market with position sizing, holding small positions in several names rather than a large position in one. Samso take · the pattern beneath the twelve This watchlist shows one pattern repeated twelve times: companies that used the 2024–2025 gold boom to permanently reduce their risk by raising money, winning permits, buying plants and pouring first gold, and were then re-priced as if none of it happened, because the sellers were trading the gold chart rather than the companies. In thirty years of gold cycles, that specific set-up, with milestones going up while the share price goes down, has been the most reliable precursor to the next re-rating, provided the gold price itself settles rather than collapses. Our companion note argues it settles. 5.00 · TWO PATHS TO VALUE Two ways shareholders win: the company builds a mine, or someone buys the company Since 2024, the big end of the ASX gold sector has been answering cheap developer prices the direct way, by buying the companies. De Grey was taken over by Northern Star, Spartan by Ramelius, Gold Road by Gold Fields, Magnetic by Genesis, and brokers count the 2026 deal tally in the billions. The buyers in this cycle have consistently paid for four things: plenty of ounces in a good mining district, high-confidence resources, closeness to an existing processing plant, and funded near-term production. Here is how the twelve map against those tests. TABLE 2 · Samso's qualitative reading of each company's two possible wins, and the upcoming event that forces the market to decide. These are opinions built from public disclosures, not predictions that any takeover will happen. Source: Samso framework; company ASX announcements. For the two audiences of this note If you already hold these shares and are asking where the value went, anchor on the milestone record rather than the share price. In every case above, the company is objectively further along than it was at the January gold peak: better funded, better permitted, closer to real cash flow, while trading at or below January's prices. If you are considering buying ahead of a potential gold recovery, think of the list as ordered by risk. The producers and funded builders (WWI, BTR, MRT, TGM and CEL) come with business cases already stress-tested below today's gold price. The study-stage names (BGD and PGL) offer bigger upside but still have to find their construction money. The explorers (GBR, AKA and GA8) and micro-developers (WGR and SMS) carry the highest risk and the highest potential return, and positions should be sized accordingly. Note: GBR may be unfaily positioned in the lowest rank. If there was going to be a dark horse, my money is on GBR. None of this is a recommendation; it is a framework for comparison. 6.00 · CLOSING THE LOOP The milestones happened. The share prices haven't caught up. Our July gold note concluded that the metal may have the potential to be settling into a base around US$4,100 to US$4,300, held up by central banks that are still buying, and that settling phases historically reward funded, near-term gold developers with one of two prizes: a re-rating as they pour first gold, or a takeover at a premium. This company note is the practical application of that idea. Twelve businesses, and twelve trails of ASX announcements documenting money raised, studies finished, permits granted and gold poured, set against a share market that has priced them as proxies for the falling gold price. Gaps of this kind have historically closed in one of two ways. Either the gold price recovers and the sector re-rates, or the corporate buyers step in and arbitrage the discount, exactly as they did with De Grey, Spartan and Gold Road at smaller discounts than exist today. Both outcomes favour patient holders of the stronger companies. Neither requires a higher gold price, because none of these business cases assumes one. What to watch from here Five dials for this watchlist. First, first-gold confirmations: WGR (mid-2026), MRT (late 2026), BTR and TGM (2027). Each is a clear pass-or-fail event that materially reduces risk. Second, the study calendar: Barton's PFS (end-2026), Brightstar's Sandstone study (Sep quarter 2026), and West Wits' expansion study (~Jul 2026). Third, strategic investors on the registers: Chengtun at Theta and the Marrone syndicate at Challenger, because increases in these stakes are a stronger signal than company presentations. Fourth, takeover announcements anywhere in ASX gold, since each transaction shows what the industry is willing to pay for discounted ounces. And fifth, the gold price at the US$4,000 line, which determines how long the above may take to play out. References & Sources All company figures come from the companies' own ASX announcements and the secondary sources below, as published at the dates shown. Share prices, company valuations and study figures change constantly and must be checked against each company's official ASX releases before any investment decision. Where this note says "approximately" or "roughly", take it literally. Trading Economics. Gold: ~US$4,001/oz on 13 July 2026; down 7.15% over the month, up 19.7% year on year; US–Iran escalation and ~70% priced probability of a September Fed rate rise (accessed 13–14 Jul 2026). Forbes Advisor / APMEX. Record gold high ~US$5,597 on 29 January 2026. Aureka Limited (ASX:AKA). Resource upgrade to ~455koz (Jun 2026, via Stocks Down Under coverage); "Drilling Continues to Bolster Confidence in Stawell Corridor Prospectivity" (3 Feb 2026); drone magnetics and Dr B. Murphy appointment (5 Jun 2026, via Kalkine); Walkers Pit / Comstock concept study and prospecting licence application (Jun–Jul 2026, via Bulls N' Bears); FY2025 Annual Report (26 Sep 2025); Independent Investment Research initiation (Apr 2026). Barton Gold Holdings (ASX:BGD). "Expansion of Tunkillia Phase 2 Upgrade Drilling" (15 Jun 2026); "Dual Rigs Commence Tunkillia Diamond Drilling" (22 Apr 2026); Tolmer drilling (18 May 2026); Tunkillia Optimised Scoping Study (5 May 2025); JORC resource statement (8 Sep 2025). Brightstar Resources (ASX:BTR). Goldfields DFS 2.0 (Jan 2026); SPP upsize/completion and funding summary (Feb–Mar 2026 releases incl. 3 Mar 2026); Menzies resource growth (11 Dec 2025); Lord Byron resource upgrade (12 Jan 2026); East Coast Research report; Kalkine note on the 23 Mar 2026 sector sell-off (share ~A$0.30, down 11.8%). Challenger Gold (ASX:CEL). First gold pour at Casposo (Jun 2026, via Medianet); A$85m placement, Marrone/Bouchard appointments and PFS (May 2026, via Motley Fool AU, Grafa, Kalkine); A$30m placement (Oct 2025); Hualilan resource of 2.8Moz gold-equivalent (company website). GoldArc Resources (ASX:GA8). Rebranding from Asra Minerals, 10:1 consolidation, A$3.2m placement (17 Sep 2025); "High-Grade Gold System Confirmed at Eclipse" (7 Apr 2026); "Bonanza Gold Grades Confirmed across 5km Niagara Trend" (28 Apr 2026); ~200koz global resource (Stockhead profile); share ~A$0.06 (7 Jul 2026, stockanalysis.com). Great Boulder Resources (ASX:GBR). Side Well resource of 1.02Moz (Dec 2025, via mining.com.au); high-grade Mulga Bill results incl. 1.93m @ 574g/t (Mar 2026, via MarketOpen); Peak Hill acquisition and ~A$40m raising; quotation of 145.5m new shares (13 May 2026). Maritana Minerals (ASX:MRT, formerly Horizon Minerals). Black Swan study metrics, A$175m placement, A$114.1m cash (Feb–Apr 2026); Burbanks Phase 1 results and Phase 2 program (4 & 14 May 2026); name change effective 13 Apr 2026; prior Samso Insights coverage (samso.com.au). Pilbara Gold (ASX:PGL, formerly Kairos Minerals). Mt York 2.1Moz within an A$5,500/oz pit shell; Nov 2024 scoping study; 50,000m 2026 program toward a PFS; Roe Hills maiden-resource target (Listcorp/company materials); name change Apr 2026. Star Minerals (ASX:SMS). Tumblegum South development-ready status, toll-treatment strategy, approvals and site preparation (company materials via INN, Morningstar, Market Index; Kalkine commentary Jun 2026). Theta Gold Mines (ASX:TGM). Revised Feasibility Study (3 Feb 2026): 13.1-year mine life, A$689m post-tax value, A$1.4bn free cash; "TGM Secures US$90 Million Bond Issue" (12 Jun 2026); final equity placement to Golden Asian Investment Group / Chengtun Mining (Jun 2026); construction updates (company website; Stockhead profile). Western Gold Resources (ASX:WGR). "Decision to Mine - Gold Duke Project" (Dec 2025); updated 277koz resource and Stage 1 scoping metrics (Jan 2026, via TipRanks summary); Bowerbird production bore and site establishment (Apr 2026); first gold targeted Q2 2026 (Stockhead, May 2026). West Wits Mining (ASX:WWI). First gold pour at Ezulwini (17 Mar 2026); 7.24Moz resource upgrade (+44%, Feb 2026); ZAR1.115bn finance package with Absa/Nedbank executed (Jun 2026); Qala Shallows DFS metrics; Project 200 study timing (Crux Investor, Jun 2026; mining.com.au). Yahoo Finance price history. Weekly closing prices for the twelve ASX tickers and COMEX gold futures, 24 months to 14 July 2026, used for the price charts in this note (accessed 14 Jul 2026). Samso Insights. "The Gold Question: pathways & ASX equity implications" (June 2026) and "The Big Consolidation" (July 2026): gold price framework, consolidation thesis and takeover context (De Grey/Spartan/Gold Road/Genesis; Canaccord deal tallies via Stockhead). Cover photo: Gold panning on Jack Wade Creek (24785190007), BLM Alaska. Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Gold_panning_on_Jack_Wade_Creek_(24785190007).jpg). Reproduced photograph, shown faded under a navy overlay on the article thumbnail. The Samso Way – Seek the Research Here at Samso, we pride ourselves on delivering content for investors that is independent and informed by over three decades of experience in the industry. Our content is well-researched and is only created if I see merit in discussing the company's story. Our mission is simple: cut through the noise and spotlight what matters—genuine stories, grounded insights, and real opportunity. Our content is well-researched and is only created if the team sees merit in discussing the company or concept. Investors can explore our three core platforms: Coffee with Samso Samso Insights Samso News There may be numerous paths to success in investing, but the common thread among successful individuals is that they remain committed to making informed decisions. Equip yourself with the right knowledge and tools, and you will be well on your way to achieving your financial goals. Most importantly, investors need to be absolutely diligent in understanding their own risk-reward tolerance and capabilities. Never bite off more than you can chew. As they say, Rome wasn’t built in a day, and the Great Wall stood because it took centuries to complete. The Samso Philosophy: Stay curious. Stay sharp. And remember—digging deeper always uncovers the real value. In Life, there is no such thing as a Free Lunch. Never bite off more than you can chew is my parting comment. Happy Investing, and the only four-letter word you need to know is DYOR. To support our independent nature of our work, please head over to our Support Page and give us a helping hand in any of the ways listed. This is a new initiate for the Samso Platform, and it was always the concept of Samso when we started this journey in 2018. Disclaimer The information or opinions provided herein do not constitute investment advice, an offer, or solicitation to subscribe for, purchase, or sell the investment product(s) mentioned herein. It does not take into consideration, nor have any regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation, risk profile, tax position and particular, or unique needs and constraints. Read full Disclaimer. About Samso Samso is a trusted platform that equips dedicated investors with up-to-date industry knowledge and insigh0ts from top CEOs and thought leaders. By staying informed on business advancements and market trends, investors can enhance their financial decisions through a combination of expert guidance and their own research. Samso Insights | www.samso.com.au | An Investor Lens on ASX-Listed Companies

Aureka Limited is a Victorian gold explorer that has grown its global Inferred JORC resource to 455koz in under two years on the ASX and has now lodged its first small-scale mining licence application at the Comstock pit near St Arnaud. Samso identified Aureka because it embodies the three questions every investor in Victorian gold should be asking: is the geological model borrowed from a real, producing analogue; can the balance sheet carry the story to the next milestone; and does the leadership have the capital-markets reach to keep the drills turning? The flagship Irvine Project sits 16km from the operating Stawell Gold Mine and applies the basalt-dome model that has yielded more than 5Moz at Magdala. The Comstock restart concept is deliberately small — a sub-5-hectare Prospecting Licence over a previously mined pit with offsite processing. What makes the story worth examining closely is the tension between the ambition of the language and the arithmetic of the accounts. That tension is where this article does its work. Samso News Research Note Depth Not Hype Understanding Samso Company Review — Multiple ASX Releases, 2025–2026 Aureka Limited: The Geology, the Money and the People Behind Victoria's Newest Gold Restart Story Samso News | ASX: AKA | Sources: Aureka Limited ASX Releases 23 June 2026 & 1 July 2026; Interim Report for the half-year ended 31 December 2025 (released 12 March 2026); FY2025 Annual Report (signed 26 September 2025); aureka.com.au Highlights Figure 1: Aureka regional location map showing the Stawell Corridor, St Arnaud and Jubilee project areas relative to Melbourne, Bendigo, Ballarat and the operating Stawell and Fosterville gold mines (from company presentation, June 2026) Introduction This Samso News article is a review of Aureka Limited (ASX: AKA), and it is built around one question: can this company turn the Comstock story into a gold production story? Aureka has set itself an unusual dual ambition for a Victorian micro-cap — a serious greenfield explorer chasing million-ounce potential in the Stawell Corridor, and at the same time a fast-to-market, minimal-footprint gold producer at a previously mined pit two kilometres north of the township of St Arnaud. The Comstock restart is the near-term leg of that ambition, and it has now reached a defined stage: a Concept Study completed, the Walkers Pit selected, a Prospecting Licence application lodged, infill drilling underway with assays pending, and metallurgical test work commencing. Everything from here — a resource classification upgrade, a Scoping Study, licence grant, mill terms and funding — is the distance between a well-told story and an operating gold mine. This review examines whether Aureka has the geology, the balance sheet and the people to close that distance. Samso's approach is deliberate. First, we establish the geological foundations of the company's interpretations and test them against the published record. Second, we work through the accounts and form a view on whether the balance sheet can carry the work program being described. Third, we look at the board, the register, and specifically at Managing Director James Gurry — whose stated position is that the company is backed by high-net-worth investors who will support it. The analysis draws on the company's June and July 2026 releases, the March 2026 quarterly, the half-year accounts to 31 December 2025, and the full ASX announcements record from 2024 to July 2026, including the FY2025 Annual Report and the substantial holding notices, accessed directly from asx.com.au. The reader deserves to know what can be verified, what is credible but unverified, and what remains an open question. We flag each accordingly. Corporate History The Navarre Thread: Where These Assets — and This Balance Sheet — Came From Aureka's own June 2026 presentation states that "the Navarre portfolio was purchased and rebranded by the Aureka team in 2024" — but the ASX record shows something more direct: Aureka Limited is the same legal entity as Navarre Minerals Limited, renamed. The cover of the FY2025 Annual Report (lodged 26 September 2025) reads "Aureka Limited (Formerly known as Navarre Minerals Limited)". Navarre was the Victorian explorer that, over more than a decade, built the basalt-dome exploration thesis along the Stawell Corridor and made the Resolution discovery at the Irvine dome from 2017-2018 onward, before entering a Deed of Company Arrangement following the difficulties of its move into production. As at 10 July 2026, the date of this article, ASX market data showed AKA last trading at $0.082 for a market capitalisation of approximately $12.7M — well below both the December 2025 placement price and that earlier implied figure. The accounts also show negative equity of $1.5M as recently as 1 July 2024, before the recapitalisation raisings restored the balance sheet. This is not a criticism. It is context. The company's own June 2026 presentation notes these assets previously supported a peak market capitalisation of approximately $150M which is a company-stated historical figure relating to 2020, under the prior corporate structure. The question this history poses is whether the new custodians can succeed where the prior corporate structure did not and the honest answer is that the exploration thesis was never the thing that failed. The Geology — Part One Stawell Corridor and the Irvine Project: A Real Analogue, Properly Applied The Irvine Gold Project is the flagship, carrying 398,300oz of the 455koz global Inferred resource at a grade of 2.59g/t Au, split between an open-pit component (Resolution OP 123koz at 2.16g/t; Adventure OP 40.3koz at 1.85g/t) and a Resolution underground component of 235koz at 3.13g/t. The June 2026 update added 94koz at Resolution — a 36% increase to the Resolution MRE — following the identification of the Tenacity Fault, a converging structure whose margins with the Resolution Fault host the highest-grade intercepts on the project to date, including 10m @ 12.1g/t Au from 413m (incl. 0.3m @ 183g/t) in hole RD048. The March 2026 quarterly added texture to that story: hole RD049, reported 3 February 2026, returned a notably wide zone of 18.4m @ 1.54g/t Au from 425.8m (incl. 1.15m @ 9.73g/t and 0.75m @ 10.2g/t), which the company reads as reaffirming the continuity and fertility of the Tenacity Hanging Wall Fault and — in its words — pointing to potentially amenable mining conditions in the extensions of the current resource. The geological model here deserves respect because it is not invented — it is borrowed from a producing mine 16km away. The Stawell Gold Mine's Magdala deposit, with historic production in excess of 5Moz, is hosted on the flanks of a Cambrian basalt dome, where gold mineralisation localises on meta-basalt/meta-sediment contacts. The rheological contrast between the competent basalt and the enclosing sediments focuses shearing and fluid flow, producing high-grade shoots whose geometry follows the attitude of the dome contact. Aureka's stated model at Irvine — a west-dipping shear zone broadly mimicking the strike of the Irvine basalt dome, with gold on or adjacent to meta-basalt/meta-sediment contacts and localised high-grade shoots controlled by contact attitude — is a faithful application of that Magdala template to the next dome south along the corridor. The corridor itself hosts a chain of these domes (Irvine, Langi Logan, Grange, Westmere) largely concealed beneath Murray Basin and Tertiary basalt cover, which is why the company's 50m-line-spaced UAV magnetic survey and IP datasets matter: under cover, geophysics is the primary targeting tool. The regional framework of the Stawell structural zone is well documented in the Geological Survey of Victoria literature and in published academic structural studies of the Magdala system; Samso encourages technically minded readers to consult the GSV's publications on the Stawell zone directly rather than rely on any single company summary. Figure 2: Stawell Corridor schematic long-section showing the Westmere, Grange, Langi Logan, Irvine and Magdala basalt domes, with the 5Moz Magdala system at the southeastern end (from company presentation, June 2026) Now the balancing observations, because a good analogue is not a guarantee. First, the entire Irvine resource is Inferred — the JORC category with the lowest geological confidence, which cannot be converted to Ore Reserves and cannot support production targets. Second, the grade architecture contains small, very-high-grade domains that warrant caution. Within the 358koz Resolution MRE, the "VG Domain" contributes 13koz from just 5,000 tonnes at a reported 55.12g/t, and "Resolution FW East" contributes 7,000oz from 20,000 tonnes at 11.72g/t. Together, roughly 20koz — nearly 6% of the Resolution ounces — comes from around 25,000 tonnes of extremely high-grade material. Visible-gold-bearing, nuggety domains of this kind are notoriously difficult to estimate at Inferred drill spacing, and their ounces should be regarded as the least reliable in the inventory until closer-spaced drilling proves them. Third, depth and cover. The Tenacity discoveries sit at 400-490m downhole; underground ounces at those depths in narrow, structurally complex settings demand grades well above the 3.13g/t underground average to be economic, and the corridor's basalt and Murray Basin cover adds cost to every stage of discovery. None of this invalidates the model. It defines the work between an exciting Inferred resource and a mine. The Geology — Part Two St Arnaud Comstock: A 15g/t Goldfield, a 1.21g/t Resource, and the Distance Between Those Numbers The Comstock Gold & Silver Project lies on the Nelson line of reef, approximately two kilometres north of St Arnaud, within a goldfield the company reports as having historically produced 400koz at an estimated 15g/t Au — a figure Aureka attributes to Krokowski de Vickerod, Moore and Cayley (1997), a Geological Survey of Victoria-era compilation, and which the company itself flags as unverified by its Competent Person and "provided for context only." The geological description is classic western Victorian turbidite-hosted orogenic gold: tightly folded, unfossiliferous Cambro-Ordovician turbidites of the Saint Arnaud Group; a NNW-trending, west-dipping structure (the Comstock Shear) sitting in the hinge zone of a large syncline; stylolitic quartz veining; an apparent association between carbonaceous black shales and higher gold grades; and a sulphide signature of pyrite, arsenopyrite, galena and sphalerite with an Au+As+Ag+Pb geochemical fingerprint. The maiden JORC MRE (June 2025) is 1.45Mt at 1.21g/t Au for 56,500oz, with 2.14g/t Ag for 100,000oz of silver, at a 0.5g/t cut-off — all Inferred — plus an Exploration Target of 3.0-3.5Mt at 1.0-1.2g/t. Post-MRE drilling in 2025 (seven holes, 2,253m) produced legitimately eye-catching intercepts: 1m @ 65.37g/t Au from a shallow 116.2m (25NED002), 0.3m @ 650g/t Ag with 1.91g/t Au from 192m (25NED004, the highest silver grade on the project), and 0.3m @ 31.5g/t Au with visible gold at 127.5m in a new structure (25NED007). Samso's central geological observation at Comstock is the grade contrast, and it should not be skipped past. The historic field produced at a reported ~15g/t; the modern resource grades 1.21g/t. There is no contradiction — the old-timers mined narrow, high-grade quartz reefs selectively, while the modern estimate is a bulk, low-cut-off envelope around sheared reef and stockwork zones — but it means the restart economics will live or die on mining selectivity, dilution control, and the true continuity of the higher-grade shoots inside a 1.21g/t envelope. The company's own concept-study disclaimer concedes the block model "has not been optimised for narrow-vein underground mine design." The second observation is metallurgical, and it is one Aureka itself discloses with commendable honesty: most of the historic St Arnaud mines stopped at the oxide-sulphide interface because of reduced grade and poor recoveries from sulphide ores. Arsenopyrite-associated gold in carbonaceous sediments is the classic recipe for partially refractory behaviour which is the same mineralogy that makes Fosterville's sulphide ore a specialised processing exercise. The infill program's inclusion of metallurgical test work is therefore not a box-ticking item. It may be the single most important technical deliverable of 2026 for the Comstock restart concept. A recent grab sample of 6.04g/t from a new, untested structure on the western pit wall is interesting but it is still just a grab sample. Figure 3: Plan view of the Walkers sub-pit showing the Walkers Main Shear and Walkers West Shear with legacy drill intercepts projected to pit floor surface (Figure 4 of the 1 July 2026 ASX release) The Restart Concept The Walkers Pit Pathway: Small by Design — and Constrained by Design The 1 July 2026 announcement is best understood as a statement of philosophy. Rather than pursue a conventional Mining Licence with its attendant scale, cost and timeline, Aureka has applied for a Prospecting Licence: a small mining licence suited to a footprint under 5 hectares, a life of up to 7 years, entirely within the previously disturbed mine site, with ore trucked offsite for processing. The Concept Study — prepared by Measured Group and Minserve with input from Core Prospecting, the operators of the Wedderburn Mill and the Fiddlers Creek underground mine — found that because the Walkers Pit retains road and ramp access last used in the late 1990s, the upfront capital relates to site establishment and overheads rather than earthworks and pre-mine development. Samso regards this as a genuinely sensible structure for a project of this maturity, with three honest caveats the company itself largely acknowledges. One: the resource is 100% Inferred, so under the ASX Listing Rules Aureka cannot publish a production target or forecast financials until infill drilling delivers a classification upgrade — meaning investors are being asked to back a restart concept whose economics cannot yet legally be quantified in public. Two: the Study identified the possible existence of voids and resource depletion from historic mining — a real risk at any previously worked Victorian pit, and one only drilling and careful reconciliation can retire. Three: the licence is an application, not a grant, and offsite processing depends on commercial terms with a third-party mill owner (Core Prospecting's Wedderburn facility, ~45km away) that have not been disclosed. Two March-quarter developments meaningfully de-risk the surrounding framework: exploration licence EL006819, which hosts the Comstock project, was renewed for a further five years to 2030, securing underlying tenure; and high-accuracy LiDAR and photogrammetry of the Comstock open-cut pit were acquired, producing the terrain and structural dataset that underpins the engineering design work — and the pit imagery used in the concept study itself. The approximately 1,000m, six-hole infill program — with assays pending as at 1 July 2026 — and a potential Comstock MRE update later in 2026 are the near-term catalysts that will tell us whether this concept graduates to a Scoping Study. "It is encouraging to see the Study identify a pathway to re-opening the Comstock project at the Walkers Pit area with low upfront capital and entirely within previously disturbed footprint." — James Gurry, Managing Director, Aureka Limited (ASX release, 1 July 2026) The Accounts Can Aureka Fund the Work It Is Talking About? The financial picture is assembled from two documents: the interim report for the half-year ended 31 December 2025 (the most recent full set of reviewed accounts) and the Quarterly Activities Report and Appendix 5B for the March 2026 quarter, released 30 April 2026. The half-year headline numbers: a loss of $2,274,428; net operating cash outflow of $3,321,074, of which $1,976,418 was exploration and evaluation spend (all expensed, not capitalised — a conservative and transparent treatment Samso notes with approval); a further $881,278 invested in property, plant and equipment (predominantly land and buildings around Irvine) and $286,000 in land deposits; and closing cash of $4,967,582. The half was funded by a $3,539,837 placement at $0.14 in December 2025 and $1,275,000 from the divestment of the 49% Tandarra JV interest to Catalyst Metals. The March 2026 quarterly then extends the picture a further three months: quarterly operating outflow of $1.23M ($661k exploration, $569k staff, administration and corporate), negligible investing and financing flows, and closing cash of $3.671M at 31 March 2026. For the nine months to 31 March 2026, operating outflows totalled $4.6M against $3.59M of equity raised and $1.275M from Tandarra. Data currency note: figures in the table above are drawn from the interim report for the half-year ended 31 December 2025 (released 12 March 2026) and, where indicated, the unaudited Appendix 5B quarterly cash flow report for the quarter ended 31 March 2026 (released 30 April 2026) — the latter being the most current financial disclosure available, itself more than three months old as at the date of this article (10 July 2026). Market capitalisation references in the body of this article are Samso calculations on a 31 December 2025 basis (157,376,591 shares × the $0.14 December 2025 placement price ≈ $22M). For currency: as at 10 July 2026, ASX market data showed AKA last trading at $0.082, for a market capitalisation of approximately $12.7M — materially below the December 2025 placement basis, implying a share count of roughly 159M after the February 2026 rent-settlement shares (452,308), the small February, March and June 2026 issues, and the verified July 2026 issues (206,667 shares from rights/options on 6 July; 614,634 shares to a supplier in lieu of cash on 8 July). Prices move daily; readers should consult the live ASX quote for ASX: AKA before relying on any figure here. Two structural features of the balance sheet deserve particular attention. The first is the land access architecture. Rather than buy the Irvine-area properties outright, Aureka has entered put-and-call option deeds with private partners — RDI Mining Holdings over part of 156 Westgate Road ($780,000 strike) and 366 Property Pty Ltd over 180 Westgate Road ($1,440,000 strike, escalating +30% in the first year and +25% per year thereafter) — while leasing the properties in the interim, partly paying rent and deposits in shares. This is capital-light and clever, and the company is right that it maximises in-ground spend today. But it is also, in substance, vendor financing at a steep implied cost: the escalation on the 180 parcel compounds at 25-30% per annum, and the put options give the counterparties the right to require Aureka to buy — with the 366 put triggered by, among other things, an $80M market capitalisation, a sale, a JV over Irvine, or a decision to mine. Success itself crystallises the obligation. The second is the incentive structure. Director and MD equity incentives issued in December 2025 vest at share price hurdles of $0.25 to $0.40 (against a $0.155 grant-date price), on a doubling of the global MRE from its 30 June 2025 base, and on progression to production or a value-realisation transaction. These sit atop an earlier tranche disclosed in the FY2025 Annual Report: 5,000,000 unvested LTI performance rights held by Mr Gurry with 20-day VWAP hurdles at $0.15, $0.20 and $0.25 against the $0.10 recapitalisation price, vesting to 30 June 2027 — and the annual report shows 57% of his $708,075 FY25 remuneration was share-based rather than cash. Investors can at least be confident management is paid for the same outcomes shareholders want. So — can they fund the work they are talking about? Samso's view: yes for the exploration program being described, no for anything beyond it without new money. The $4.97M at 31 December 2025 comfortably covers the ~1,000m Comstock infill program, continued Irvine drilling and the concept-to-scoping study work through calendar 2026 at the current spend rate — but by our arithmetic the tank approaches reserve some time around late 2026 or early 2027 absent further inflows. We note that in early July 2026 the company lodged applications for quotation of securities and a cleansing notice with the ASX, which indicates new shares have recently been issued; Samso has not reviewed the detail of those issues, and readers should check the announcements directly to establish whether a further raising has already occurred. The company's own concept-study disclaimer says it plainly: there is no certainty Aureka can raise the required funding when needed, such funding may be dilutive, and value-realisation alternatives including a sale, partial sale or JV are possible. That is not boilerplate. At a ~$22M market capitalisation, it is the operating reality. The People The Board, the Register, and James Gurry's Claim The board is small and, for a company of this size, unusually credentialled. The biographies below are drawn from the company's published materials; Samso has not independently audited them, but they are specific, checkable claims of the kind rarely fabricated. Figure 4: Diamond drilling within the Walkers Pit at the Comstock Gold Project, June 2026, utilising the existing pit access ramp highlighted in the Concept Study (Figure 3 of the 1 July 2026 ASX release) Samso's Analysis The Balanced View: A Coherent Story With Its Risks Written on Its Face What Samso likes about Aureka is that the risks are very clear. The concept study, the Inferred resource, the historic production figure is flagged as unreliable, the metallurgical history of the field, mines dying at the sulphide interface, is stated in the company's own words. Aureka Limited is still a ~$22M company carrying a two-project ambition on roughly nine months of cash at the recent spend rate, whose entire 455koz inventory sits in the lowest confidence category, whose flagship's best intercepts are 400m and more below surface, and whose near-term production concept depends on a licence not yet granted, assays not yet returned, metallurgy not yet demonstrated, and a resource-classification upgrade not yet achieved. Whether readers take the view that the Navarre lineage with the same rocks once carried the company to a $150M valuation and is now significantly lower, as a positive or negative reads as a disastrous history or an optimistic opportunity to make the value back with new management. The watch-list for the next twelve months is also very clear. It will be the Walkers infill assays and metallurgical results, a potential Comstock MRE update and any Inferred-to-Indicated conversion, the Prospecting Licence decision, the terms of any Wedderburn tolling arrangement, continued Tenacity Fault drilling at Irvine; and the size, price and participants of the next capital raising, which will test whether the private-capital register documented in the FY2025 Annual Report can keep writing cheques at increasing scale. For investors watching this story, the geology is credible, the structure is deliberate, and the funding question is not a criticism of the company — it is the company's central strategic variable, and management appears to know it. Samso Concluding Comments Aureka Limited is attempting the classic Victorian two-step: fund the big, slow discovery (Irvine) with the credibility generated by a small, fast restart (Comstock). The geological interpretations underpinning both legs appear to be grounded and supported with published analogues, Magdala's basalt-dome model at Stawell and the turbidite-hosted reef systems of the western goldfields. The accounts tell us the company can pay for the work it is currently describing, but not for what comes after it. Management look like that they have the capital-markets machinery to manage the future fund raising propcess. The chairman has run companies a hundred times this size, and a managing director whose entire career has been the interface between mining assets and institutional money has the credentials to handle the work. Whether that machinery can deliver development-scale capital, on acceptable terms, before the Inferred ounces harden into something bankable, is the question the next set of announcements will begin to answer. Samso will be reading them. If you invest in ASX resources, www.samso.com.au is where the story beneath the announcements gets told. About the Company Cover photo: Cetate open-pit gold mine, István Mihály. CC0, via Wikimedia Commons (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Cetate_open-pit_gold_mine.jpg) The Samso Way – Seek the Research Here at Samso, we pride ourselves on delivering content for investors that is independent and informed by over three decades of experience in the industry. Our content is well-researched and is only created if I see merit in discussing the company's story. Our mission is simple: cut through the noise and spotlight what matters—genuine stories, grounded insights, and real opportunity. Our content is well-researched and is only created if the team sees merit in discussing the company or concept. Investors can explore our three core platforms: Coffee with Samso Samso Insights Samso News There may be numerous paths to success in investing, but the common thread among successful individuals is that they remain committed to making informed decisions. Equip yourself with the right knowledge and tools, and you will be well on your way to achieving your financial goals. Most importantly, investors need to be absolutely diligent in understanding their own risk-reward tolerance and capabilities. Never bite off more than you can chew. As they say, Rome wasn’t built in a day, and the Great Wall stood because it took centuries to complete. The Samso Philosophy: Stay curious. Stay sharp. And remember—digging deeper always uncovers the real value. In Life, there is no such thing as a Free Lunch. Never bite off more than you can chew is my parting comment. Happy Investing, and the only four-letter word you need to know is DYOR. To support our independent nature of our work, please head over to our Support Page and give us a helping hand in any of the ways listed. This is a new initiate for the Samso Platform, and it was always the concept of Samso when we started this journey in 2018. Disclaimer The information or opinions provided herein do not constitute investment advice, an offer, or solicitation to subscribe for, purchase, or sell the investment product(s) mentioned herein. It does not take into consideration, nor have any regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation, risk profile, tax position and particular, or unique needs and constraints. Read full Disclaimer. If you find this article informative and useful, please help me share the information. I try to write about topics that are interesting and have the potential to be of investment value. It is not easy to find stories that fit those parameters. If you or your organisation sees the benefit of what Samso is trying to achieve and has a need to share your journey, please contact me at noel.ong@samso.com.au. About Samso Samso is a trusted platform that equips dedicated investors with up-to-date industry knowledge and insigh0ts from top CEOs and thought leaders. By staying informed on business advancements and market trends, investors can enhance their financial decisions through a combination of expert guidance and their own research. Samso News | www.samso.com.au | An Investor Lens on ASX-Listed Companies

Elk Range Mining Limited, an Australian-incorporated gold explorer, is set to list on the ASX on August, 01,2026, under the proposed code ELL. The company has lodged a prospectus to raise A$7,000,000 (with the ability to accept oversubscriptions of up to a further A$3,000,000, for a maximum of A$10,000,000) through the issue of ordinary shares at 20 cents each, and to list on the Australian Securities Exchange under the proposed code ELK. The money is earmarked to advance the Idaho Gold Project, a district-scale package of gold assets near Elk City in central Idaho, in the United States. The project is anchored by the Friday Gold Mine, a historical high-grade underground mine that sits on care and maintenance (meaning it is idle but maintained rather than abandoned), and includes the Orogrande Processing Plant plus two advanced exploration prospects, Buffalo Gulch and Deadwood. The assets were acquired from Endomines in February 2026. At the offer price, the company would list with a market capitalisation of A$21.9 million to A$25.2 million and pro forma net cash of A$7.4 million to A$10.4 million. The prospectus is explicit that the shares "should be regarded as highly speculative", that Elk Range does not yet generate revenue, and that none of its assets carries a current Mineral Resource estimate compliant with the JORC Code. The only resource work quoted is historical and foreign, and the prospectus does not reproduce any tonnage or grade figures from it. The offer is expected to close on 8 July 2026, with trading anticipated to begin around 1 August 2026. Section 01:The deal - Elk Range Mining IPO The offer, the timetable and where the money goes The capital raising has two parts. Elk Range Mining IPO Offer invites investors to apply for between 35,000,000 and 50,000,000 shares at A$0.20 each, to raise A$7,000,000 to A$10,000,000 before costs. It is split into an Institutional Offer (for professional and sophisticated investors in Australia and certain other permitted jurisdictions) and a Broker Firm Offer (for eligible retail clients of participating brokers who receive a firm allocation). There is no general public offer. A separate Joint Lead Managers Offer issues between 4,000,000 and 6,000,000 unlisted options to Inyati Capital and Euroz Hartleys as part of their fee. The minimum application is 10,000 shares (A$2,000), then multiples of 5,000 shares (A$1,000). No brokerage, commission or stamp duty is payable by applicants. Total expenses of the offer are estimated at A$1,013,570 (at the minimum subscription), covering the joint lead managers' fee, legal, listing and expert-report costs. Table 1: IPO Highlights Where the money goes Elk Range says its existing cash plus the offer proceeds give it enough working capital for the two years following listing. Exploration is the single largest use of funds, taking 43% to 48% of the total. The company draws its use-of-funds on a no-production, no-revenue basis. Table 2: Use of proceeds Section 02: The assets - Elk Range Mining Inside the Idaho Gold Project Figure 1. Location of the Idaho Gold Project near Elk City, central Idaho. (Source: IPO prospectus) Everything Elk Range owns sits within the Orogrande Mining District near Elk City, in Idaho County, Idaho. The assets line up along the Orogrande Shear Zone, a regional-scale fault corridor (a long zone of broken and displaced rock) that the prospectus links to gold mineralisation and a string of historical mining centres. The project spans four elements: the flagship Friday Gold Mine, the Orogrande Processing Plant, and the Buffalo Gulch and Deadwood exploration prospects. Table 3: The four components of the Idaho Project Patented vs unpatented claims. Under the US Mining Law of 1872, a patented claim is one where the US government has passed full title to the holder. An unpatented claim gives only a possessory right to extract minerals; the underlying land stays under what the prospectus calls "the paramount title of the United States", and the holder must pay annual maintenance fees to keep it alive. The Friday Gold Mine and its lease Friday is the centrepiece. Previous operators built underground access through a portal and decline (an access tunnel that slopes down into the mine), and underground mining most recently restarted under prior owner Endomines in May 2020. After two short mining periods and roughly 7,200 tonnes of ore, the mine was placed on care and maintenance in February 2022, which the prospectus attributes to Covid-19 and broader operational factors. Figure 2: Friday Project location (Source: IPO Prospectus) Elk Range does not own Friday outright. It holds the mine through the Friday Lease, under which its US subsidiary Elk Range Minerals LLC is the lessee and Premium Exploration USA, Inc. is the lessor. The lease grants Elk Range the right to mine underground mineralisation averaging 2 grams of gold per tonne or higher. Premium retains the rights to lower-grade material below 2 g/t, including potential future open-pit mining. The lease began on 23 April 2015, runs for an initial 20 years to April 2035, and carries an option to extend for a further 20 years. Figure 3: Friday Project leases (Source: IPO Prospectus) The Orogrande Processing Plant gives the company optionality. The prospectus describes it as able to process sulphide ore at about 6.4 tonnes per hour through crushing, grinding, gravity and flotation circuits, with supporting infrastructure that includes an assay laboratory, workshops, a camp and mobile mining equipment. Whether the plant is ever restarted depends on permit transfers, technical studies, funding, economics and board approval. Figure 4: The Orogrande Processing Plant (Source: IPO Prospectus) Buffalo Gulch and Deadwood The two satellite prospects add what the prospectus calls district-scale exploration upside. Both sit on the Orogrande Shear Zone, both carry historically identified gold mineralisation, and both are described as prospective for near-surface oxide gold (weathered, more easily leached material) and deeper sulphide gold. No exploration at either is currently planned; the near-term drilling budget is directed at Friday. Figure 5: Claim map (Source: IPO Prospectus) Section 03 — Strategy and work program The plan: de-risk the historical data, then drill Elk Range frames its strategy as disciplined, staged advancement rather than a production rush. Over the 12 to 24 months after listing, it intends to validate, digitise and reinterpret decades of historical geological, drilling and production data, then run modern drilling, geological modelling and quality-control programs aimed at supporting a future JORC-compliant Mineral Resource estimate where the results justify one. The company states its initial focus is on exploration, technical evaluation and resource growth, not near-term mining. The JORC Code is the Australasian standard for publicly reporting exploration results and resources. A "Mineral Resource" under that code is a concentration of minerals with reasonable prospects for eventual economic extraction, classified by geological confidence. Elk Range does not have one yet; producing one is the central goal of the work program, and it is the trigger for several of the company's incentive and vendor payments (covered later). The first drilling program at Friday The company plans an initial exploration and validation program of 10 diamond drillholes totalling 11,900 feet, drilled from surface and focused on the five patented lease claims at Friday. The holes are designed to test and confirm historical high-grade intersections, improve confidence in the known mineralised zones, and probe extensions down-plunge and along-strike from the existing underground workings. Elk Range estimates an all-in cost of about US$892 per metre and a total program budget of roughly A$3.21 million. Table 4: Drilling Budget The independent geologist notes that a LiDAR survey (airborne laser mapping for accurate topography) would be worthwhile but is not included in the planned budget. No exploration at Buffalo Gulch or Deadwood is currently planned. Section 04 — Geology, history and historical drilling A century of mining, and a large historical dataset Gold has been worked in the Orogrande district for a long time. The prospectus records placer gold (loose gold in stream gravels) first found in the 1850s, and hard-rock mining beginning in 1903 at the Hogan mine on Friday ground. The independent geologist, AMC Consultants, describes the mineralisation across the assets as a low-sulphidation mesothermal vein system, meaning gold deposited from warm mineralising fluids moving through fault and shear structures at moderate depth. At Friday, gold sits mainly between two faults (named the Friday and Monday faults) and comes in two styles: broad zones of lower-grade disseminated gold, and higher-grade gold and silver where the rock is more intensely sheared, particularly next to a non-mineralised dacite dyke (a sheet of volcanic rock cutting across the host). The long section below shows the historical underground development, the base of oxidation, and a plunging high-grade shoot that the geologist notes is "not in resource", a reminder that these are historical intercepts rather than a classified resource. A long line of past operators The project has passed through many hands, each of which added to the exploration record. The prospectus lists Bema Gold in the 1980s, Idaho Consolidated Metals from the early 1990s, Cyprus in 1996 to 1997, Kinross in 1998, Canden in 2002, Beartooth Platinum in 2004, Premium Exploration from 2009 to 2014, and Endomines from 2018 to 2022. In total the geologist reports about 386 drillholes and more than 145,000 feet of drilling at Friday alone, with a further 180 holes (31,816 feet) at Buffalo Gulch and 65 holes (21,371 feet) at Deadwood. The resource position: historical and foreign, not JORC A resource estimate was prepared for Friday and Buffalo Gulch by Hard Rock Consulting in 2017, but the prospectus and the independent geologist are clear that it is both a "foreign estimate" and a "historical estimate": it was prepared under Canadian (CIM) standards, not the JORC Code, before Endomines owned the project. Elk Range and its Competent Person have not done enough work to classify any of it as a Mineral Resource under JORC, and the prospectus does not reproduce any tonnage, grade or ounce figures from it. There is no current JORC Mineral Resource for any Elk Range asset. Investors are cautioned that historical estimates should not be relied upon. Historical drilling highlights The geologist reports a table of significant historical intersections at Friday. These are exploration results, not a resource, and AMC states it has not independently verified them. They do, however, illustrate the high-grade character the company is chasing. A selection (grade shown as grams of gold per tonne, "g/t", over a drilled interval): Table 5: Historical drilling Highlights Historical metallurgical testwork is also encouraging on paper. At Friday, 2011 bottle-roll leach tests on 13 samples averaged 86.2% gold recovery, and 2016 flotation composites averaged 94.3% and 95.6%. At Buffalo Gulch, a 1989 agglomerated heap-leach test recovered 95% of the gold over 32 days. The company presents these as supportive of future processing routes, not as guarantees. Section 05 — People Board and management Elk Range lists on admission with a four-person board, three of whom it considers independent, plus a chief executive. The prospectus notes the company will not have separate audit and risk or remuneration committees at listing, given the board's size, with the full board carrying out those functions. Table 6: Board and Management Fees are annual and exclusive of superannuation. Leanne Kite's A$260,000 comprises A$200,000 for the CFO role and A$60,000 for the executive director role. Section 06: Capital, ownership and the acquisition The capital structure and who owns what Before the offer, Elk Range has 29,329,004 shares on issue. On admission, that grows to between 109.4 million and 126.1 million shares once the IPO shares, the conversion of a A$5 million convertible note, the shares to vendor Endomines, and smaller issues are added. Shares sold under the IPO will represent roughly 32% of the enlarged capital at the minimum subscription and 39.6% at the maximum. The company's free float is expected to be at least about 63% (minimum) to 66% (maximum). Table 7: Capital Structure The convertible notes were a pre-IPO raise: A$5,000,000 across 5,000 notes of A$1,000 each, carrying 8% annual interest and converting into shares at the lesser of 80% of the IPO price or A$0.58. They are expected to convert on listing. Directors and management hold both shares and some of these notes. Table 8: Convertible Notes A large share of the register is expected to be subject to ASX escrow (a mandatory holding lock): roughly 26.7 million shares, 14.3 million performance rights and the lead manager options for up to 24 months, and a further 13.8 to 15.4 million shares for 12 months. None of the shares issued under the IPO offer are subject to escrow. The Endomines acquisition: about A$20 million, mostly deferred Elk Range acquired the Idaho Gold Project from Endomines under an asset purchase and sale agreement, completed on 24 February 2026. The headline consideration is roughly A$20 million, but only A$3.5 million was paid in cash upfront. The rest is spread across share issues, milestone payments tied to defining a JORC resource, and time-based cash payments, with the whole obligation secured against the project. Crucially, several of the large payments are only triggered if the company succeeds in defining substantial gold resources. Table 9: Edomines Acquisition payments "Moz" means million ounces; "0.4 g/t cut-off" is the minimum grade counted in a resource. Endomines' shareholding is capped at 10%. Elk Range granted security (a mortgage of US$14,142,000) over the project in Endomines' favour. Performance rights tied to finding gold Elk Range has 17,000,000 performance rights on issue, held by directors and the CEO. Performance rights are a right to be issued a share for no payment once conditions are met. Most of these conditions mirror the vendor milestones: defining JORC resources of 0.5 million and 1.0 million ounces, plus acquiring Premium's lower-grade rights, and each also requires the share price (20-day average) to be at least A$0.20. All expire on 30 November 2030. Table 10: Performance Rights Recipients: Campbell Baird 5,000,000; Leanne Kite 5,000,000; Edward Keys 4,000,000; Frazer Tabeart 1,500,000; Rafael Moreno 1,500,000. The independent expert notes that if every performance security converted, they would represent about 65.79% of issued capital on a minimum-subscription basis. Royalties over the project The Idaho Gold Project carries a stack of third-party net smelter return (NSR) royalties, a share of revenue from any gold sold. Most are capped. The company would also have to deliver the first six 10-ounce gold bars from each mine placed into production to certain historical beneficiaries. Section 07: Financials Financial position As an exploration company, Elk Range has no revenue and expects losses for the foreseeable future. For its first reporting period (16 February 2025 to 31 December 2025) it recorded a loss after tax of A$201,864 and held A$227,499 in cash at 31 December 2025. The picture that matters for investors is the pro-forma balance sheet, which restates the position as if the acquisition, the convertible note and the offer had all happened by that date. Table 11: Financial Position The plant and equipment was independently valued at US$1.4 million. The A$12.8 million deferred consideration is the accounting value of the future Endomines milestone and time payments. The auditor issued an unmodified opinion on the historical accounts but drew attention to a material uncertainty related to going concern; the directors state that, with the offer proceeds, the company will have the funds to operate as a going concern. Section 08: Risks What the prospectus flags as the key risks The prospectus devotes a full section to risk and stresses the shares are highly speculative. The list below summarises the company and industry-specific risks it identifies. It is not exhaustive, and general market risks (economic conditions, equity market volatility, currency movements, commodity prices and public-health events) apply on top. Mineral rights and lease structure: Elk Range can only mine underground gold averaging 2 g/t or higher; Premium keeps the lower-grade and potential open-pit rights, and has a conditional agreement to sell the underlying patented claims. Mineral claims and title: Unpatented claims sit under the paramount title of the US government and can be challenged; a successful challenge could void or shrink them. Acquisition and deferred consideration: Large future payments are owed to Endomines and secured against the project; failure to meet them could affect the company's interest in the assets. Title, tenure and permits: Some permits remain in a previous owner's name and are still being transferred; there is no guarantee they will all transfer or renew on time. Environmental and historical mining: Old workings and waste rock may carry liabilities; a Phase I environmental assessment identified certain "Recognised Environmental Conditions". Royalties and production obligations: Multiple third-party royalties and a historical gold-delivery obligation could affect the economics of any future mining. Nature of exploration: Exploration is inherently speculative; there is no assurance it will define an economic resource. Historical and foreign estimates: The historical resource data is not JORC-compliant and may not convert into a JORC resource. Operational and infrastructure: The mine and plant are on care and maintenance; there is no assurance they can be restarted on acceptable terms. Liquidity and escrow: Existing holders will own a large share of the register, much of it locked in escrow for up to 24 months, which may limit trading liquidity. Foreign operations: All the material assets are in the United States, exposing the company to US federal, state and local law, permitting and currency movements. Funding and going concern: The company has no revenue and will need ongoing funding; there is no assurance further capital will be available on acceptable terms. Section 09: Independent reports What the independent experts concluded Four independent reports are attached to the prospectus. In brief: Table 12: Independent Report Samso Concluding Comments Elk Range Mining is seeking A$7 million to A$10 million at 20 cents per share to list on the ASX and fund the next phase of work in a historical gold district in Idaho. The pitch, in the company's own words, rests on a rare combination of established infrastructure (a high-grade underground mine and a processing plant), a large historical dataset, and district-scale exploration ground, all in a mining jurisdiction familiar to investors. Against that, the prospectus is candid about what has not yet been proven. There is no JORC resource today; the historical estimates are not compliant, and no figures are disclosed; the flagship mine and plant are idle; the company holds Friday under a lease that restricts it to higher-grade underground ore; a substantial deferred consideration is owed to the vendor; and much of the register is locked in escrow. The document repeatedly describes the shares as highly speculative and urges investors to read it in full and seek professional advice. This coverage is a guide to what it says, not a substitute for that reading. Cover photo: Gold bullion bars, Stevebidmead. CC0, via Wikimedia Commons (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Gold_bullion_bars.jpg) The Samso Way – Seek the Research Here at Samso, we pride ourselves on delivering content for investors that is independent and informed by over three decades of experience in the industry. Our content is well-researched and is only created if I see merit in discussing the company's story. Our mission is simple: cut through the noise and spotlight what matters—genuine stories, grounded insights, and real opportunity. Our content is well-researched and is only created if the team sees merit in discussing the company or concept. Investors can explore our three core platforms: Coffee with Samso Samso Insights Samso News There may be numerous paths to success in investing, but the common thread among successful individuals is that they remain committed to making informed decisions. Equip yourself with the right knowledge and tools, and you will be well on your way to achieving your financial goals. Most importantly, investors need to be absolutely diligent in understanding their own risk-reward tolerance and capabilities. Never bite off more than you can chew. As they say, Rome wasn’t built in a day, and the Great Wall stood because it took centuries to complete. The Samso Philosophy: Stay curious. Stay sharp. And remember—digging deeper always uncovers the real value. In Life, there is no such thing as a Free Lunch. Never bite off more than you can chew is my parting comment. Happy Investing, and the only four-letter word you need to know is DYOR. To support our independent nature of our work, please head over to our Support Page and give us a helping hand in any of the ways listed. This is a new initiate for the Samso Platform, and it was always the concept of Samso when we started this journey in 2018. Disclaimer The information or opinions provided herein do not constitute investment advice, an offer, or solicitation to subscribe for, purchase, or sell the investment product(s) mentioned herein. It does not take into consideration, nor have any regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation, risk profile, tax position and particular, or unique needs and constraints. Read full Disclaimer. If you find this article informative and useful, please help me share the information. I try to write about topics that are interesting and have the potential to be of investment value. It is not easy to find stories that fit those parameters. If you or your organisation sees the benefit of what Samso is trying to achieve and has a need to share your journey, please contact me at noel.ong@samso.com.au. About Samso Samso is a trusted platform that equips dedicated investors with up-to-date industry knowledge and insigh0ts from top CEOs and thought leaders. By staying informed on business advancements and market trends, investors can enhance their financial decisions through a combination of expert guidance and their own research. Samso News | www.samso.com.au | An Investor Lens on ASX-Listed Companies

The company behind the core systems of some of Australia's largest life insurers hit the boards at midday, priced at $1.10 a share and valued at approximately $103.5 million at the offer price. Monvia Limited (ASX: MNV), the Sydney-headquartered software company behind the core administration systems of some of Australia's largest life insurers, began trading on the ASX under the ticker MNV at midday AEST today, capping a $17.5 million initial public offering priced at $1.10 per share. The debutante traded as high as A$1.150 before settling at A$1.125 by 1:55 pm AEST, up 2.27% on its $1.10 IPO price, with 458,071 shares traded (Figure 1). Figure 1: Monvia's reception on listing day (Source:ASX:com) Monvia is not a startup. The operating business, formerly known as Axe Group Pty Limited, was founded in 1997 and has spent nearly three decades supplying technology to the life insurance sector. Its flagship product, the Monvia Life Platform, launched in 2020, is a cloud-based, software-as-a-service (SaaS) system, meaning clients pay recurring subscription fees to use software hosted and maintained by Monvia rather than buying and running it themselves. The company hit the boards on a soft day for the broader market. The Australian sharemarket opened lower this morning after Wall Street fell overnight on renewed concerns over heavy AI spending by major technology companies and an oil price spike driven by geopolitical tensions. The offer: A measured path to market for Monvia IPO The Monvia IPO values the company at approximately $103.5 million at the offer price, based on 94,133,636 shares on issue at completion. Monvia was formally admitted to the ASX's Official List on Wednesday, 22 July, with quotation commencing today under the code MNV and the trade abbreviation MONVIALTD. A total of 53,272,342 fully paid ordinary shares are quoted, with a further 40,861,286 shares held in escrow as restricted securities, the longest tranche locked up until 24 July 2028. Escrow is a restriction that prevents certain existing shareholders, typically founders and pre-IPO investors, from selling their shares for a set period after listing. Table 1: IPO Timetable The shareholder register at listing is a tight one. As at 20 July, Monvia reported 295 registered holders of ordinary shares, with approximately 32 underlying shareholders holding through a single custodian or broker arrangement. The prospectus stated the company expected a free float of 54.90 per cent at admission, comfortably above the ASX's 20 per cent minimum. Free float is the proportion of shares available for public trading rather than locked up by insiders or escrow arrangements. Use of funds: Where the money goes Of the total $19.4 million in funds available after the raise (the $17.5 million from the offer plus approximately $1.9 million of cash on hand), the single largest allocation is not growth spending. Some $12.5 million, or 64.45 per cent of available funds, goes to redeeming the Series B Preference Shares at the time of admission. Those securities were issued in lieu of $12.5 million in cash to the vendors of the operating business, Monvia Australia, as part consideration for its acquisition in July 2025, so the redemption effectively settles a deferred purchase debt. Table 2: Use of Funds The remainder is allocated as follows: $1.7 million (8.77 percent) to sales, marketing and international expansion within 12 months of admission; approximately $1.39 million (7.14 percent) to the costs of the offer; and approximately $3.81 million (19.64 percent) to general working capital, which the company intends to split 50 percent towards research and development, 22 percent towards staff costs and 28 percent towards administrative expenses. Monvia also carries a $6 million loan facility, not due until 30 June 2027, which it intends to repay from operating cash flow rather than offer proceeds. Separately, the listing triggered the automatic conversion of 32.5 million Series A Preference Shares into 45,454,546 ordinary shares at $0.715 each, a 35 percent discount to the offer price. The prospectus disclosed that this conversion delivers holders of those securities an aggregate financial benefit of $17.5 million above the face value of their preference shares. The business: Three decades in a specialist niche Monvia is not a startup. The operating business was founded in 1997, formerly known as Axe Group Pty Limited, and has spent nearly three decades supplying technology to the life insurance sector. Its flagship product, the Monvia Life Platform, launched in 2020, is a cloud-based, software-as-a-service (SaaS) system, meaning clients pay recurring subscription fees to use software hosted and maintained by Monvia rather than buying and running it themselves. The platform acts as the core system of record for a life insurer, spanning four modules: New Business (streamlining risk assessment for new customers), Policy Administration, Claims Management and the Monvia Life Hub: which connects the platform to other systems. The company employs more than 100 staff, mostly in Australia with a small team in Manila, and services clients including MetLife, AIA Group, the Australian Reinsurance Pool Corporation, Hollard, Hannover Life Re and US-based Propeller Inc, part of Arch Insurance Group. While Monvia itself is not subject to industry-specific regulation, its clients must comply with prudential standards such as APRA CPS 230 and 234, and Monvia holds SOC 2 and ISO 27001 security certifications. The corporate structure is recent. Monvia Limited was incorporated on 24 March 2025 as Axe Group Holdings Pty Ltd specifically to acquire the operating business and list it, completing the acquisition in July 2025 and adopting the Monvia name in December 2025. Financials: The numbers Monvia comes to market profitable, a rarity among smaller ASX technology floats. On a pro forma basis (figures adjusted to show the business as if the current corporate structure had been in place throughout), revenue grew from $23.4 million in FY23 to $24.4 million in FY24 and $27.1 million in FY25, with the company forecasting $27.4 million for the financial year ending 30 June 2026. EBITDA, meaning earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation, a common measure of underlying operating profitability, was $6.2 million in FY25 at a 22.9 per cent margin, forecast to rise to approximately $6.6 million at a 24.0 percent margin in FY26. The half-year to 31 December 2025 delivered pro forma revenue of $14.0 million and EBITDA of $3.6 million. Table 3: Financial Figures The company anticipates a five-year compound annual growth rate of 27 percent in annual recurring revenue (ARR, the contracted subscription revenue in place at the start of each year) to 30 June 2026. Its average net revenue retention over the past five years was 121 percent, meaning existing clients on average spend 21 percent more each year than the year before, while gross revenue retention averaged 95 percent. The company says it has been cash flow positive for five consecutive years. After the offer, pro forma cash stands at approximately $8.4 million, or approximately $2.4 million net of the $6 million loan facility, giving an enterprise value of approximately $101.2 million. The company does not intend to pay dividends in the immediate future, prioritising expansion of its core software locally and internationally. Key risk: The MetLife question The prospectus is candid about the defining feature of Monvia's revenue profile: concentration. MetLife, a client since 2020 and described as Monvia's anchor client, accounted for approximately 62 percent of total pro forma revenue in FY24, 70 percent in FY25, and is expected to account for approximately 71 percent in FY26. Any loss of, or reduction in services from, that client would materially affect the company's operations, earnings and financial condition. The company's mitigation is a freshly renegotiated contract. A replacement Master Procurement Agreement with MetLife commenced on 1 April 2026 for a five-year term running to 30 March 2031, accompanied by a new statement of work covering the Monvia Life Platform, support, maintenance and hosting. MetLife has agreed to a minimum spend for the first two years and nine months of the term, although it retains the right to terminate for convenience on at least 180 days' notice, or 30 days' notice in the event Monvia is acquired by a competitor. Beyond client concentration, the prospectus lists risks including the need to retain and attract clients, maintain and develop the platform, retain key personnel, execute the growth strategy, and manage cybersecurity threats. It also addresses AI directly, arguing the risk of AI-enabled competition is low because the platform's role as a regulated system of record, with auditable decisioning and embedded governance guardrails, is difficult for general-purpose AI tools to replicate. The company positions AI as more likely to enhance its platform than displace it. People: Board and register The board carries a strong thread of shared history at Empired Ltd, the ASX-listed IT services firm. Non-Executive Chairman Russell Baskerville founded and led Empired, building it to more than 1,200 staff, and currently chairs Bravura Solutions and One Click Group. Chief Executive Officer Simon Bright was previously Chief Operating Officer of Empired and, most recently, Chief Operating Officer and Services Lead for Capgemini Australia and New Zealand, having begun his career in insurance at Norwich Union. Chief Client Officer Stuart Strickland, also an executive director, founded Conducive Pty Ltd, acquired by Empired in 2012, and later held senior roles at Capgemini and DUG Technology. Non-executive directors Robert McCready (former Empired and ASG Group COO) and Mark Waller (Empired's CFO from 2005 to 2016) extend the connection, joined by Shan Kanji and Stephen Tucker, the former MLC chief executive and co-founder of Koda Capital. Ajesh Raithatha serves as Chief Financial Officer and Nina Mlinarevic as Company Secretary. Post-listing, the substantial shareholders are Baskerville's Tidal Opportunities vehicle at 13.28 percent, Microequities Asset Management at 11.89 percent, Monvia Australia vendors Kimberley Anne Lathe and Martin John Stewart at 9.29 percent each, Kanji at 8.07 percent, and Strickland and Raithatha at 5.31 percent apiece. A number of existing shareholders have entered voluntary escrow deeds restricting the sale of their shares for 12 months from admission, while the ASX admission notice records a larger pool of restricted securities across two escrow classes, with the final tranche released 24 months from quotation. Table 4: Substantial shareholders after the offer Outlook: What happens next Today's session is only the first data point. The shares issued under the offer trade freely, but the substantial escrowed holdings mean liquidity may be limited in the near term, a factor the prospectus itself flags as capable of influencing the prevailing market price. The prospectus describes the shares as a speculative investment and directs investors to the full risk disclosures before making any decision. For a 29-year-old business making its public debut, the pitch to the market is straightforward and comes directly from the chairman's letter: "a proven, deeply embedded platform, long-term blue-chip client relationships generating recurring revenue, a long history of profitability and free cash generation, and a leadership team with deep domain expertise." Whether the market prices it that way from day one is the question the tape will answer over the sessions ahead. Cover photo: An office table and computers (Unsplash), Patryk Sobczak patryksobczak. CC0, via Wikimedia Commons (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:An_office_table_and_computers_(Unsplash).jpg) The Samso Way – Seek the Research Here at Samso, we pride ourselves on delivering content for investors that is independent and informed by over three decades of experience in the industry. Our content is well-researched and is only created if I see merit in discussing the company's story. Our mission is simple: cut through the noise and spotlight what matters—genuine stories, grounded insights, and real opportunity. Our content is well-researched and is only created if the team sees merit in discussing the company or concept. Investors can explore our three core platforms: Coffee with Samso Samso Insights Samso News There may be numerous paths to success in investing, but the common thread among successful individuals is that they remain committed to making informed decisions. Equip yourself with the right knowledge and tools, and you will be well on your way to achieving your financial goals. Most importantly, investors need to be absolutely diligent in understanding their own risk-reward tolerance and capabilities. Never bite off more than you can chew. As they say, Rome wasn’t built in a day, and the Great Wall stood because it took centuries to complete. The Samso Philosophy: Stay curious. Stay sharp. And remember—digging deeper always uncovers the real value. In Life, there is no such thing as a Free Lunch. Never bite off more than you can chew is my parting comment. Happy Investing, and the only four-letter word you need to know is DYOR. To support our independent nature of our work, please head over to our Support Page and give us a helping hand in any of the ways listed. This is a new initiate for the Samso Platform, and it was always the concept of Samso when we started this journey in 2018. Disclaimer The information or opinions provided herein do not constitute investment advice, an offer, or solicitation to subscribe for, purchase, or sell the investment product(s) mentioned herein. It does not take into consideration, nor have any regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation, risk profile, tax position and particular, or unique needs and constraints. Read full Disclaimer. If you find this article informative and useful, please help me share the information. I try to write about topics that are interesting and have the potential to be of investment value. It is not easy to find stories that fit those parameters. If you or your organisation sees the benefit of what Samso is trying to achieve and has a need to share your journey, please contact me at noel.ong@samso.com.au. About Samso Samso is a trusted platform that equips dedicated investors with up-to-date industry knowledge and insigh0ts from top CEOs and thought leaders. By staying informed on business advancements and market trends, investors can enhance their financial decisions through a combination of expert guidance and their own research. Samso News | www.samso.com.au | An Investor Lens on ASX-Listed Companies

Brisbane biotech Ceretas is seeking $8 million to take a decade of University of Queensland brain research from the lab bench to the clinic. Ceretas Limited, a Brisbane-based medical device company, is asking Australian investors to help fund the leap from promising brain research to a treatment doctors can actually use. The company wants to raise $8 million by issuing 32 million new shares at 25 cents each, and expects to begin trading on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) under the code CTS on or around 28 July 2026. At the offer price, the company would list with an indicative market capitalisation of about $17.8 million. The raise is being run by two Perth joint lead managers, Caravel Securities and Taurus Capital Group, and the offer period was scheduled to close on 13 July 2026. What is Ceretas actually selling? : Not a drug, but a device. The Ceretas Device is a portable, non-invasive headset that aims focused ultrasound beams through the skull at specific parts of the brain, to treat Alzheimer's disease. The technology was developed over more than a decade at The University of Queensland (UQ) and its Queensland Brain Institute, and Ceretas holds an exclusive licence to commercialise it. The company is candid in its prospectus that this is an early-stage, pre-revenue business. It has completed one small first-in-human safety trial and is about to start a larger feasibility study. It does not expect to earn meaningful revenue in the short term, and its own board describes an investment as "highly speculative." The $8 million is designed to last roughly two years. Figure 1: A demonstration of the ultrasound device developed by researchers at QBI (Source: Company Website) The technology: Ultrasound aimed at the brain, two ways Most Alzheimer's treatments are drugs that circulate through the whole body. Ceretas is taking a different route. Its device uses focused ultrasound, sound waves concentrated on a precise target, to interact directly with brain tissue. The system has three main parts: a transducer that generates the ultrasound, a fluid coupling that carries the sound efficiently from the device to the scalp, and an image-guided neuronavigation system that steers the beam using each patient's own MRI scan. The device is designed to work through two distinct mechanisms: Table 1: Ceretas Mechanism The blood-brain barrier presents a major challenge in treating brain diseases. While it shields the brain from harmful substances, it also prevents most drugs from entering. If Ceretas can safely and temporarily open this barrier, it could have significant implications beyond just Alzheimer's, although this aspect of the program is still in the laboratory phase. Management argues the device's edge is practicality. Unlike MRI-guided ultrasound systems, which treat patients inside an MRI machine, the Ceretas Device only needs a single baseline MRI scan for planning and can then be used in ordinary clinics, hospitals and aged-care settings. And unlike implanted ultrasound devices, it requires no surgery. An investment in Ceretas should be considered highly speculative and is subject to a range of risks.— Ceretas prospectus, Letter from the Chair The Ceretas IPO opportunity: A large market driven by an ageing world The commercial logic rests on scale and demographics. Alzheimer's disease affects an estimated 55 million people worldwide and is the most common form of dementia, accounting for 60% to 80% of all cases. As populations age, that number is expected to climb steeply. Ceretas points to the global dementia treatment market being worth approximately US$18 billion in 2024, projected to reach roughly US$28 billion by 2030. The company is careful to note these are at the lower end of published estimates. A particular focus is the behavioural and psychological symptoms of dementia, a large group of patients the company says are poorly served by existing treatments. Samso Caution A word of caution on these figures for investors: market-size numbers in early-stage prospectuses describe the total opportunity, not what any single company is likely to capture. Ceretas has no approved product and no sales, so the path from a US$28 billion market to actual revenue runs through years of trials, regulatory approvals and clinical adoption. The evidence so far: One completed trial, one about to begin The clinical story is genuinely early. A first-in-human Phase 1 pilot study treated 12 participants with Alzheimer's disease at the Mater Private Hospital in Brisbane. The trial met its goals of safety, feasibility and tolerability, with no dropouts. It was not designed to prove the treatment works, but an exploratory analysis found a statistically significant improvement in behavioural and psychological symptoms, a result the researchers said warranted further study. The findings were published in the journal Brain Communications in late 2025. The next step is the Company-Sponsored (CERE-CALM) Phase 2 Trial, a feasibility study in patients with mild-to-moderate Alzheimer's, which received ethics approval in May 2026. Separately, UQ is running an investigator-led Phase 2 trial in moderate-to-severe patients, funded by a $5 million Queensland Health grant, with all resulting intellectual property flowing to Ceretas. Where the money goes: Trials and device development take the lion's share Combining the $8 million raised with $1.6 million of existing cash reserves gives Ceretas IPO about $9.6 million to spend over its first two years as a listed company. More than a third is earmarked for its flagship Phase 2 trial. Table 2: Use of funds The numbers: Pre-revenue, grant-funded, and loss-making As you would expect for a company at this stage, the financial statements show losses and no product revenue. What income there is comes from a government grant and bank interest, not from selling anything. The figures below are drawn from the company's reviewed and audited historical accounts. Table 3: Income statement On the balance sheet, the picture improves markedly once the raise is factored in. As at 31 December 2025 the company held $2.89 million in cash and reported net assets of $2.26 million. On a pro forma basis, after the offer, cash rises to around $10.1 million and total assets to roughly $10.5 million. Share structure: Who owns what after listing On listing, Ceretas expects to have about 71.4 million shares on issue, alongside roughly 9.6 million options and 2.5 million performance rights held mainly by management and the joint lead managers. Table 4: Capital Structure Early backers did well on paper. Founding investors bought in at prices as low as $0.0001 per share in October 2024, rising through subsequent placements at $0.01, $0.08 and $0.16, to the $0.25 IPO price. To stop early holders selling immediately, the ASX is expected to place roughly 32% of the shares into escrow for up to 24 months. No single shareholder is expected to control the company after listing. The largest holders on admission are expected to be UniQuest (UQ's commercialisation arm) with around 8.4%, and two investor entities associated with the founders and lead manager, each holding under 6%. The people: A board with medtech exits behind it For a company this small, the board carries notable healthcare and capital-markets experience, including several people with prior ASX-listed track records. Table 5: The Board The risks: What could go wrong The prospectus devotes an entire section to risk, and the company repeatedly stresses that this is a highly speculative investment. The main themes an investor should weigh: ◆ Key risk factors flagged by the company Going concern & funding: the company needs further capital beyond this raise; that funding may not be available, or may dilute shareholders. Clinical trial risk: trials are expensive and can fail. Early results may not translate to larger studies, and the historical failure rate in drug and device development is high. Regulatory risk: there is no guarantee the device will win regulatory approval, in any market, within any timeframe. Commercialisation risk: even with approval, the device must be adopted by clinicians and patients in a competitive market. Limited operating history: Ceretas was incorporated in October 2024 and has never commercialised a product. Intellectual property risk: the business depends on a licensed patent portfolio that must be protected and maintained. Liquidity risk: with about a third of shares in escrow, freely tradeable stock is limited early on. Key dates: The road to market The bottom line: A high-risk, high-conviction science bet Ceretas offers investors a clean version of the early-stage medtech proposition: a genuinely differentiated technology backed by a decade of university research and an experienced board, wrapped around a business with no product revenue, one small completed trial, and an explicit dependence on future funding. The $8 million raise buys roughly two years of runway to turn a promising Phase 1 signal into Phase 2 evidence. If the CERE-CALM trial reads out well and the regulatory path opens up, the addressable market is large. If it does not, the company is upfront that the downside is significant. As with any speculative float, the right amount to allocate is the amount you can afford to lose. The the global dementia treatment market is lucrative however, the jury is still out on most treatments that I have read. However, this does not mean that we are being pessismictic on any new ventures, it is more a cautionary thought as serious DYOR is required. No doubt, Samso will be following this business closely. Samso has been covering this space for a while: Cover photo: Medical instruments, Saltanat. CC0, via Wikimedia Commons (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Medical_instruments.JPG) The Samso Way – Seek the Research Here at Samso, we pride ourselves on delivering content for investors that is independent and informed by over three decades of experience in the industry. Our content is well-researched and is only created if I see merit in discussing the company's story. Our mission is simple: cut through the noise and spotlight what matters—genuine stories, grounded insights, and real opportunity. Our content is well-researched and is only created if the team sees merit in discussing the company or concept. Investors can explore our three core platforms: Coffee with Samso Samso Insights Samso News There may be numerous paths to success in investing, but the common thread among successful individuals is that they remain committed to making informed decisions. Equip yourself with the right knowledge and tools, and you will be well on your way to achieving your financial goals. Most importantly, investors need to be absolutely diligent in understanding their own risk-reward tolerance and capabilities. Never bite off more than you can chew. As they say, Rome wasn’t built in a day, and the Great Wall stood because it took centuries to complete. The Samso Philosophy: Stay curious. Stay sharp. And remember—digging deeper always uncovers the real value. In Life, there is no such thing as a Free Lunch. Never bite off more than you can chew is my parting comment. Happy Investing, and the only four-letter word you need to know is DYOR. To support our independent nature of our work, please head over to our Support Page and give us a helping hand in any of the ways listed. This is a new initiate for the Samso Platform, and it was always the concept of Samso when we started this journey in 2018. Disclaimer The information or opinions provided herein do not constitute investment advice, an offer, or solicitation to subscribe for, purchase, or sell the investment product(s) mentioned herein. It does not take into consideration, nor have any regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation, risk profile, tax position and particular, or unique needs and constraints. Read full Disclaimer. If you find this article informative and useful, please help me share the information. I try to write about topics that are interesting and have the potential to be of investment value. It is not easy to find stories that fit those parameters. If you or your organisation sees the benefit of what Samso is trying to achieve and has a need to share your journey, please contact me at noel.ong@samso.com.au. About Samso Samso is a trusted platform that equips dedicated investors with up-to-date industry knowledge and insigh0ts from top CEOs and thought leaders. By staying informed on business advancements and market trends, investors can enhance their financial decisions through a combination of expert guidance and their own research. Samso News | www.samso.com.au | An Investor Lens on ASX-Listed Companies

A first-time explorer wants to raise $6 million to hunt for gold and copper across two historic grounds of Western Australia. Gwardar Resources Limited is asking investors for at least $5 million, and up to $6 million, to list on the Australian Securities Exchange and hunt for gold and copper in Western Australia's historic gold fields. The company plans to issue 25 million shares at 20 cents each to raise the minimum, with room to accept another 5 million shares if demand is strong. If it lists, it will trade under the code GRS, with an indicative market value of roughly $5.6 million to $6.6 million on day one. The pitch is straightforward. Gwardar Resources IPO lined up the right to buy, outright, two exploration projects in Western Australia: the Doolgunna Project in the Murchison region, prospective for copper and gold, and the Kurnalpi Project in the Eastern Goldfields near Kalgoorlie, prospective for gold. Both sit in districts that have produced metal for decades. Neither has been drilled by Gwardar yet. In fact, the company was only incorporated on 17 December 2025 and has no revenue or operating history. That combination, established mining postcodes paired with a brand-new company and unproven ground, is the whole story. The rest of this article walks through the numbers, the two projects, where the money goes, who is running it, and the risks the prospectus asks you to weigh. Section 1 What is being offered- Gwardar Resources IPO The core offer is 25 million shares at 20 cents to raise $5 million before costs, which the prospectus calls the Minimum Subscription. The company can also accept oversubscriptions of up to a further 5 million shares to raise an extra $1 million, taking the maximum to $6 million (the Maximum Subscription). Applications start at $2,000, or 10,000 shares, and rise in parcels of 2,500 shares after that. Alongside the main offer sits a smaller, separate “Secondary Offer” of 2 million shares. These are not for the public. They go to the vendors who are selling the two projects to Gwardar, as part of how the company is paying for them, and are covered here so those shares can trade freely once the escrow period ends. The offer is conditional. It proceeds only if three conditions are met: the $5 million minimum is raised, the ASX agrees to admit the company, and the two project purchase agreements become unconditional. If any of these fall over, the offer does not proceed, and the application money is refunded without interest. Table 1: Key offer statistics Section 2 The two projects Everything Gwardar is raising money to do centres on two project areas, both in Western Australia, and both being bought in full from their current owners. The map below shows how far apart they are: Doolgunna sits in the Murchison, well to the north, while Kurnalpi lies out east near Kalgoorlie (Figure 1). Figure 1: Location of Gwardar’s Doolgunna and Kurnalpi projects in Western Australia. Both sit within “greenstone” belts (shown in green), the ancient rock formations that host most of the state’s gold. (Source: Gwardar Resources prospectus) Doolgunna: chasing a DeGrussa-style copper story The Doolgunna Project sits in the Murchison Mineral Field, about 750 kilometres north-east of Perth and 100 kilometres north-east of the town of Meekatharra. It is made up of four exploration licences covering roughly 372 square kilometres, or 120 graticular blocks. (Figure 2). Only one of those four licences has actually been granted; the other three are still applications, which the prospectus flags as a risk. Figure 2. The Doolgunna Project licences (outlined) in relation to the DeGrussa mine and known gold and copper occurrences (yellow and orange dots). (Source: Gwardar Resources prospectus) Geologically, this is copper-and-gold country. The area is known for what the industry calls VHMS deposits, short for volcanic-hosted massive sulphide, a type of ore body rich in copper and gold that forms around ancient underwater volcanic vents. The region’s headline example is DeGrussa, a high-grade copper deposit discovered by Sandfire Resources in 2009 that reshaped exploration across the district. Gwardar’s ground is described as prospective for the same style of mineralisation, and for structurally controlled gold as well. Prospective is the key word: it means the geology looks favourable, not that a deposit has been found. What has past drilling actually found? On the granted licence, historical reverse-circulation drilling at a prospect called Halloween West returned intercepts including 6 metres at 561.7 ppm copper, 4 metres at 0.18 g/t gold, and 6 metres at 1,029 ppm copper. These are modest, early-stage numbers that point to a mineralised system worth testing further, rather than an economic discovery. The prospectus is careful to frame Doolgunna as an early-stage project inside a mature, well-explored region. Figure 3. Regional geology and mineral occurrences around Doolgunna. The district hosts several known copper-gold (VHMS) deposits and numerous fault-controlled gold occurrences. (Source: Gwardar Resources prospectus) Table 2: Doolgunna Project Tenements Kurnalpi: under-explored ground near Kalgoorlie The Kurnalpi Project lies in the Eastern Goldfields, about 90 kilometres north-east of Kalgoorlie, reached by sealed road to Kanowna and then gravel. It covers roughly 90 square kilometres, or 29 graticular blocks, across two granted licences and one pending application. This is squarely gold country: the surrounding district is what the prospectus calls a “world-class” gold and nickel province, with major mines within 50 kilometres. Figure 4. The Kurnalpi Project (outlined) north-east of Kalgoorlie, among the well-known deposits of the Eastern Goldfields. (Source: Gwardar Resources prospectus) Here the target is orogenic gold, the classic Kalgoorlie style of gold that forms in fault and shear zones deep in the earth’s crust. Table 3: Kurnalpi Project Tenements Gwardar argues that the ground has been overlooked: it is buried under a thick blanket of younger surface material, which blunted the older, shallow sampling techniques earlier explorers relied on. In other words, previous crews may have looked, but not looked properly. “The Company considers the Project area is inadequately explored for gold using contemporary techniques.” There is something to build on. Earlier work outlined a gold-anomalous zone about 600 metres long, known as the SW003 or “Cessna 3” anomaly. A 2012 drilling program by a company called Pioneer put down 97 shallow holes for 4,309 metres, with a best result of 3 metres at 0.91 g/t gold from 15 metres depth. The company sees that anomaly as a priority worth drilling with modern methods. Figure 5. Historical gold-in-soil results and drill intercepts over the Kurnalpi (Cessna) target. Warmer colours show stronger gold-in-soil readings; labels show past drill hits such as 15 m at 0.291 g/t gold. (Source: Gwardar Resources prospectus.) Section 3 How Gwardar is buying the projects Here is a detail that matters: as at the prospectus date, Gwardar did not yet own either project. It had signed binding agreements on 3 June 2026 to acquire 100 per cent of both, but the purchases only complete (“settle”) once conditions are met, including the company successfully listing. So buyers of shares are backing a company that is acquiring its assets at the same time as it floats. The prices are small, and mostly paid in shares rather than cash. For Doolgunna, Gwardar agreed to issue 1 million shares (valued at $200,000 at the offer price) plus up to $50,000 cash, to vendors Cuvier Resources and Tasex Geological Services. For Kurnalpi, it agreed to issue another 1 million shares ($200,000) plus up to $100,000 cash to Australian Nickel Company Limited. Those 2 million vendor shares are the “Secondary Offer” mentioned earlier, and they will be subject to ASX escrow. Table 4: Project Acquisition terms Section 4 Where the money goes If the raise lands at the $5 million minimum, a little under 56 cents in every dollar goes directly into exploring the two projects. Drilling, sampling and geophysics dominate the two-year work plan. The rest covers the cost of the float itself, corporate and administration costs, the small cash portion of the acquisitions, and a working-capital buffer. Table 5: Use of funds over the next two years The exploration budget itself, about $2.86 million at the minimum raise and $3.41 million at the maximum, is spread across data review, land access and heritage work, geochemistry, geophysics and drilling. Drilling is the single biggest line item, which is what you would expect from a company whose whole reason for listing is to test whether these two areas hold something worth mining. Table 6: Two-year exploration budget by activity (minimum raise) Section 5 Who is running it Gwardar is led by a three-person, all-non-executive board, with day-to-day geology handled by a consultant principal geologist. Several of the directors hold current roles at other ASX-listed resource companies, which the prospectus presents as a sign of relevant experience. The three directors are each on $40,000 a year in fees, starting only once the company lists. Each already holds about 100,000 shares from the pre-float seed round, roughly 10 per cent each of the tiny existing share register, which shrinks to a fraction of a per cent once the new public shares are issued. All three have signalled an intention to buy more under the offer: Mr Hardcastle up to $100,000, and Mr Rovira and Mr El Sayed up to $350,000 each, subject to how the offer is allocated. Table 7: Two-year exploration budget by activity (minimum raise) Section 6 The finances, and the risks There is not much of a financial history to examine. Gwardar was incorporated in December 2025 and, to the end of that month, recorded a loss of just $5,491 and held $100 in assets. It has no revenue and does not expect to pay dividends for the foreseeable future. Table 8: Pro Forma Financial Position at Listing On a pro forma basis, that is, adjusted to show the position as if the raise and acquisitions had already happened, the company would hold roughly $5 million in cash at the minimum raise, or about $6 million at the maximum, and net assets of about $4.99 million to $5.93 million. The prospectus does not shy away from risk; it devotes a long section to it and tells readers plainly that the investment is speculative. The most important risks for a would-be investor to understand are these: No track record. The company is months old, has never explored its ground, and has no revenue. It expects to keep making losses until, and unless, it finds something valuable. It does not own the projects yet. The acquisitions must still settle. If a vendor fails to complete, Gwardar may not end up with the project, or may get it on different terms. Several tenements are only applications. Three of the four Doolgunna licences and one Kurnalpi licence are pending. They may not be granted, or only partly granted. The prospectus singles out E27/676 as facing a competing prior claim. Exploration usually fails. Most exploration ground never becomes a mine. Even a promising result may prove uneconomic to dig up. Native title and heritage. The tenements overlap registered native title claims and land-use agreements. Access, approvals and heritage surveys can delay or restrict work. More money will likely be needed. The cash is budgeted for about two years. Beyond that, Gwardar will probably need to raise again, which can dilute existing shareholders, and there is no guarantee funding will be available. Commodity prices and thin trading. Returns depend on gold and copper prices the company cannot control, and small explorers often trade in low volumes, which can make shares hard to sell at a good price. Section 7 The Samso Concluding Comments - The bottom line Strip away the geology and Gwardar Resources is a familiar kind of proposition: a small, first-time explorer raising a modest sum to test two parcels of ground in proven mining districts. The appeal, as the prospectus frames it, is a portfolio of gold and copper ground in established Western Australian provinces, an experienced board, and enough cash to run two years of exploration. The catch, which the prospectus states just as clearly, is that nothing has been found yet, the company does not formally own the projects at the point of listing, several licences are still applications, and the whole thing is expressly “highly speculative.” For a retail investor, the practical takeaway is that this is your typical mineral explorer that is really a listed vehicle for now. Some credentialed names on the Board and Karl Jupp is a experienced campaigner. The common feature of early mienral explorer with no glaring upside is to try and see if you are investing in the future and going for that "punt" or for managemnet to bring in a glory project in the coming future. The issue with the second option is that the IPO price may be "expensive" as time normally dewvalue the IPO price. Waiting and picking something up later at a market discount could be the play. However, as most of us retail players don't have the wisdom of the "purple circle" this is always hard to decide. For now, I think a wait and see is a safer option but if you feel that there is a FOMO happening, take a punt. The good news is that you can always average down if things take a turn for the worst. Cover photo: Gold bullion 1, Szaaman. Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Gold_bullion_1.jpg) The Samso Way – Seek the Research Here at Samso, we pride ourselves on delivering content for investors that is independent and informed by over three decades of experience in the industry. Our content is well-researched and is only created if I see merit in discussing the company's story. Our mission is simple: cut through the noise and spotlight what matters—genuine stories, grounded insights, and real opportunity. Our content is well-researched and is only created if the team sees merit in discussing the company or concept. Investors can explore our three core platforms: Coffee with Samso Samso Insights Samso News There may be numerous paths to success in investing, but the common thread among successful individuals is that they remain committed to making informed decisions. Equip yourself with the right knowledge and tools, and you will be well on your way to achieving your financial goals. Most importantly, investors need to be absolutely diligent in understanding their own risk-reward tolerance and capabilities. Never bite off more than you can chew. As they say, Rome wasn’t built in a day, and the Great Wall stood because it took centuries to complete. The Samso Philosophy: Stay curious. Stay sharp. And remember—digging deeper always uncovers the real value. In Life, there is no such thing as a Free Lunch. Never bite off more than you can chew is my parting comment. Happy Investing, and the only four-letter word you need to know is DYOR. To support our independent nature of our work, please head over to our Support Page and give us a helping hand in any of the ways listed. This is a new initiate for the Samso Platform, and it was always the concept of Samso when we started this journey in 2018. Disclaimer The information or opinions provided herein do not constitute investment advice, an offer, or solicitation to subscribe for, purchase, or sell the investment product(s) mentioned herein. It does not take into consideration, nor have any regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation, risk profile, tax position and particular, or unique needs and constraints. Read full Disclaimer. If you find this article informative and useful, please help me share the information. I try to write about topics that are interesting and have the potential to be of investment value. It is not easy to find stories that fit those parameters. If you or your organisation sees the benefit of what Samso is trying to achieve and has a need to share your journey, please contact me at noel.ong@samso.com.au. About Samso Samso is a trusted platform that equips dedicated investors with up-to-date industry knowledge and insigh0ts from top CEOs and thought leaders. By staying informed on business advancements and market trends, investors can enhance their financial decisions through a combination of expert guidance and their own research. Samso News | www.samso.com.au | An Investor Lens on ASX-Listed Companies