Global Manganese Update and the Manganese Price Outlook for October 2026
The manganese price has given back most of its early 2026 gains. Chinese steel output is down 2.9% this year and the Jupiter Mines share price has moved below its long-term trend. Higher-cost supply is starting to be cut back, and the index price is still above Tshipi's cost.
Samso set out ten years of manganese price history in The Manganese Market, Where the Price Has Been, Where Demand Is Headed, and the Distance Left for the Explorers on 5 September 2026. Since then South32 has reported its September quarter, and China has released its September steel and ore import figures.
All prices in this piece are as at the close of ASX trading on 21 October 2026.
Manganese prices in 2025 and 2026
Eramet's Gabonese subsidiary Comilog sets a monthly offer to Chinese buyers for its 44.5% manganese lump. That offer climbed from US$4.50 per dry metric tonne unit (dmtu) for December 2025 shipment to US$5.75 for May 2026 shipment. It has been cut every month since, to US$4.70 for October shipment, back to January's level [R3] (FIGURE 01). The Comilog offer is higher grade and includes freight to China, so only the direction of the two lines can be compared.
The 37% FOB Port Elizabeth index, a benchmark price for South African ore, rose from US$3.46 at the end of 2025 to US$4.14 at the end of March 2026, then fell to US$3.34 by the end of July [R1]. Jupiter said concerns in the March quarter about geopolitical supply disruptions eased early in the June quarter [R1].
At US$3.34 at the end of July, the FOB price was back at Jupiter's four-year average of US$3.34 [R1]. Over the longer run, the FY2026 average of US$3.55 per dmtu was the highest since FY2021 but well below the US$5.72 of FY2019 (FIGURE 02) [R2]. On the South African index, the 2026 rally has now been given back.
Tshipi's FY2026 FOB cost was US$2.40 per dmtu. The 37% FOB index was US$3.34 at the end of July, still above that cost (FIGURE 02) [R1][R2].
Manganese supply and Chinese port stocks
Manganese ore at China's main ports rose from 3.6 million tonnes in March 2025 to 5.87 million tonnes at the end of July 2026 [R1]. Shanghai Metals Market reported stocks still above 5.9 million tonnes in September [R4]. Jupiter described end-July stocks as close to recent average levels [R1]. With that much ore in China, this usually means buyers are in no hurry for new cargoes.
There are early signs that higher-cost supply is being cut back. South32 reduced the ore it trucks to port from its South African mines in the September quarter "in response to market conditions". Its share of South Africa Manganese sales fell 22% from the June quarter to 460,000 wet tonnes, with one shipment also slipping into the December quarter [R5]. China's imports from South Africa fell 18.6% in September from August, although total imports rose 9.6% on more ore from Gabon and elsewhere [R4].
The longer-term change is in Gabon, which plans to ban raw manganese ore exports from 1 January 2029 [R6]. Gabon supplied about one in seven tonnes of China's September imports (Samso's arithmetic from Shanghai Metals Market's figures) [R4].
Steel demand
Manganese demand closely follows the steel industry [R10]. China produced 724.77 million tonnes of crude steel in the nine months to September 2026, down 2.9% on last year [R7]. Shanghai Metals Market reports alloy producers squeezed on margins, with most new ore staying at the ports [R4]. This usually means steel is giving manganese little support this year.
The Jupiter Mines (ASX: JMS) chart
Jupiter Mines (ASX: JMS) holds 49.9% of the Tshipi mine in South Africa's Kalahari Manganese Field and describes its share price as strongly correlated with the manganese price [R2]. FIGURE 03 shows its share price over two years with the main trend measures.
Jupiter is a small cap, worth about A$472 million (Samso's arithmetic), with median daily turnover of about A$461,000 over 20 sessions [R9]. On turnover that thin, a handful of trades can move the averages, so these measures carry less weight than on a large, heavily traded stock.
The shares rose 126% from A$0.135 in December 2024 to A$0.305 on 2 March 2026. The 37% FOB index was at its highest quarter-end level, US$4.14, at the end of March [R1]. The shares have since fallen 21.3% to A$0.24, a figure that includes the 0.75 cent dividend that went ex on 3 September, against a 3.7% fall in the S&P/ASX 200.
The 50-day simple moving average of the closing price fell below the 200-day average on 25 June 2026, the crossing traders call a death cross. The price has closed below the 200-day average in all 75 sessions since 9 July 2026, and that average has been falling since 18 August 2026. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), set out by J. Welles Wilder in New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems (1978), reads 38. That is below the midpoint of 50 but above the 30 level technicians treat as oversold.
On the chart, Jupiter has moved from an uptrend to a downtrend since March, over the same months the ore price fell. A sustained close back above the 200-day average on above-median volume would be the first sign that this reading is wrong.
Next reports and the manganese price outlook
Jupiter releases its September quarter activities report on 30 October 2026 [R8]. That report will show how far Tshipi's realised prices followed the index down. Shanghai Metals Market says that if steel demand disappoints and alloy output cuts widen, the market may move into slow port destocking, with range-bound prices bottoming in the December quarter [R4].
Samso Concluding Comments
The early 2026 rally looks to have been driven by supply concerns, which eased in the June quarter. Our view is that a floor is now forming, at the level where higher-cost South African tonnes start to come out of the market. South32's cut to trucked tonnes is the clearest evidence of it so far. When higher-cost supply leaves, the price usually stops falling before it starts to recover.
The near-term upside is harder to see. With port stocks high and Chinese steel output down, a move higher most likely needs another supply event or the Gabon ban drawing closer. The Jupiter chart has not yet confirmed a turn.
SAMSO TAKE The manganese price has fallen back to where higher-cost supply starts to leave. If that floor holds through the December quarter, does the market start to price in Gabon's 2029 ban sooner? |
THE OTHER WAY TO READ THIS The floor may be lower than the cost of trucked South African ore. South32 cut the ore it trucks, but it kept its South African production guidance unchanged. China's total ore imports also rose in September. Gabon's ban is still a plan, more than two years away, and its timing could move. A floor built on supply discipline can also give way if one large producer decides to hold its volume. |
Previous Samso Coverage of Manganese
5 SEPTEMBER 2026
Ten years of manganese prices, steel and battery demand, and the ASX producers and explorers.
23 JANUARY 2026
Firebird's battery-grade manganese and cathode pathway.
2 DECEMBER 2025
Great Dirt Resources' manganese rock chip results in northern New South Wales.
References and sources
Market-sensitive numbers are stated at their dates. Share prices and the measures calculated from them are as at the close of ASX trading on 21 October 2026. Figures marked "As reported" come from a news or price-reporting service that Samso read but did not check against a primary company document. FIGURE 01 and FIGURE 03 are original Samso illustrations of sourced data. FIGURE 02 is reproduced from a Jupiter Mines presentation. Each [R#] marker in the text links to the entry below.
[R1] Jupiter Mines Limited, Q4 FY2026 Quarterly Activities Report, 31 July 2026. Price and port stock table on page 5, market commentary on pages 4 and 5.
[R2] Jupiter Mines Limited, Company Update, Africa Down Under presentation, 2 September 2026, slides 4, 7, 9 and 30.
[R3] Eramet Comilog monthly manganese ore offers to China, 44.5% Mn Gabonese lump, CIF China, as reported by Mysteel (8 December 2025, 9 January, 7 April, 7 May, 5 June, 8 July, 30 July and 28 August 2026) and BigMint (7 November 2025, 3 February 2026). As reported.
[R4] Shanghai Metals Market, Faltering Peak-Season Hopes Mask False Boom in Sept Manganese Ore Imports, 20 October 2026. As reported.
[R5] South32 Limited, Quarterly Report September 2026, released to the ASX on 19 October 2026, page 4.
[R6] Ecofin Agency, France Moves to Become Manganese Miner Eramet's Top Shareholder Before Gabon's 2029 Ore Export Ban, 14 October 2026. As reported.
[R7] Mysteel, NBS data, China's crude steel output down 2.9% over January to September, 19 October 2026. As reported.
[R8] Jupiter Mines Limited, Calendar of Key Dates for Shareholders, 30 September 2026.
[R9] Yahoo Finance, daily prices for JMS.AX and the S&P/ASX 200, 21 October 2024 to 21 October 2026. Jupiter Mines Annual Report 2026 for shares on issue (1,965,850,551). Averages and RSI calculated by Samso.
[R10] US Geological Survey, Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026, Manganese, February 2026.
Cover photo: conveyors and ore stockpile, Jupiter Mines Limited (ASX: JMS), Africa Down Under presentation, 2 September 2026, slide 3.
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