ASX today: Three-week high as inflation relief lifts property, retailers and small caps

Samso Market update| Australian market close | Wednesday, 30 September 2026

Australian shares climbed to their highest closing level in three weeks on Wednesday as steady underlying inflation encouraged investors to scale back expectations for another near-term Reserve Bank interest-rate increase.

The S&P/ASX 200 gained 80 points, or 0.92%, to close at 8,789.30, extending its recovery after Tuesday’s RBA decision. The benchmark briefly traded above 8,800 before surrendering some gains towards the close.

The All Ordinaries advanced 0.93% to 8,969.20, while the S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries rose 0.70% to 3,368.60. Listed property delivered a particularly strong response, with the S&P/ASX 200 A-REIT index gaining 3.60%.

Key highlights

• ASX 200 reached a three-week closing high, gaining 0.92%.

• Listed property surged 3.60% as investors reassessed the interest-rate outlook.

• Underlying inflation remained at 3.6%, despite higher headline inflation.

• Northern Star Resources rose 6.35% amid renewed takeover speculation.

• Small caps gained 0.70%, although individual company outcomes remained sharply divided.

Inflation report changes the market’s assessment

The August Consumer Price Index showed annual headline inflation accelerating to 4.0%, from 3.5% in July, but the result was slightly below expectations. The more closely watched trimmed-mean measure remained at 3.6% for a third consecutive month.

That distinction helped explain why shares rose despite the stronger headline number. Investors were looking for evidence of a further acceleration in underlying price pressures, and the report offered some reassurance.

The release followed the RBA’s decision on Tuesday to lift the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.60%, its fourth increase of 2026. The central bank retained the option of further tightening, but Wednesday’s figures gave markets more reason to contemplate a pause.

Market pricing put the probability of another increase in November at approximately 24%, compared with around 50% shortly after Tuesday’s decision. Australian three-year government bond yields fell as low as 4.87% during the session.

Property and consumer shares respond

The 3.60% advance in listed property was one of the clearest expressions of that shift. Financials also finished higher, with their sector index adding 0.27%.

Property businesses are sensitive to both financing costs and the returns investors can obtain from competing assets. A less restrictive expected interest-rate path can support property valuations and make rental income more attractive, even before actual borrowing costs decline.

Buying also extended to businesses exposed to household spending and housing activity.

REA Group Limited (ASX:REA) climbed 5.85% to A$157.50, while JB Hi-Fi Limited (ASX:JBH) gained 4.69% to A$70.28. Wesfarmers Limited (ASX:WES) advanced 3.04% to A$76.61.

Those gains were consistent with improving expectations for consumers if the tightening cycle is nearing its peak. However, they do not yet establish that household spending or company earnings have strengthened.

Northern Star rallies on takeover expectations

Northern Star Resources Limited (ASX:NST) closed 6.35% higher at A$24.77, with approximately 12.3 million shares changing hands.

The advance followed reports that Gold Fields was considering an improved proposal after Northern Star rejected its earlier takeover approach.

The original proposal comprised 0.3125 Gold Fields shares and A$7.25 cash for each Northern Star share. Northern Star’s board argued that it materially undervalued the business and its growth prospects.

The share-price response highlighted the importance of corporate activity within resources. Northern Star had a company-specific catalyst beyond movements in bullion, although speculation about improved terms remained distinct from a confirmed revised offer.

Codan extends gains after earnings upgrade

Codan Limited (ASX:CDA) finished 2.17% higher at A$65.83, extending its advance following Tuesday’s trading update. The shares reached A$70.14 during the session before retreating.

The company expects first-half FY2027 net profit of at least A$160 million, compared with A$71.2 million a year earlier. Communications revenue is forecast to reach A$400 million–A$410 million, supported by strong demand, particularly from conflict regions.

Codan also increased its full-year communications revenue growth target to 30%–40%. However, it cautioned that visibility over demand from conflict regions remains limited, making it too early to assume first-half margins and order strength will continue through the second half.

Small caps recover, but the rally remains selective

The Small Ordinaries added 23.40 points, although its 0.70% gain lagged the ASX 200. It also finished below its intraday high of 3,380.20.

Cettire Limited (ASX:CTT) was a notable smaller-company winner, gaining 30.56%, with approximately 18.7 million shares traded.

At the other end, Lindian Resources Limited (ASX:LIN) declined 18.49%, on turnover of approximately 58 million shares. The company said export arrangements for its Kangankunde rare-earths project remained unchanged amid concerns about proposed regulatory changes in Malawi.

The contrast shows why an improving index does not translate into uniform gains. Funding, regulation and project execution continue to matter particularly strongly for smaller businesses.

Commodities and global yields temper the optimism

The domestic rally occurred against a less comfortable international backdrop.

During Asian trading, spot gold was near US$4,180 an ounce, while Brent crude remained around US$103 a barrel. Gold was stabilising after a difficult month, but elevated oil prices continued to complicate the inflation outlook.

Bitcoin traded around US$83,500, while the US 10-year Treasury yield remained near 5.24% during the Australian session. High global yields continue to influence financing costs and equity valuations, even when domestic rate expectations ease.

Samso Concluding Comments

The three-week closing high gives Wednesday’s rally greater significance than a routine daily rebound. Property, consumer shares and small caps all participated, indicating that the improvement extended beyond a handful of heavyweight stocks.

The next test is whether that confidence survives subsequent inflation readings and company updates. The September-quarter inflation report, due on 28 October, will be an important input ahead of the next RBA decision.

For investors, Wednesday demonstrated how quickly valuations can respond when expectations change. Sustainable returns will still depend on whether businesses can convert that improved market backdrop into earnings, cash flow and operational progress.

Wednesday, September 30, 2026 | Afternoon market update

Australian shares strengthened after midday as investors welcomed inflation figures that were less severe than expected, reducing concerns about another near-term Reserve Bank interest-rate increase.

Heading towards the close, the S&P/ASX 200 had gained 94.20 points, or 1.08%, to 8,803.50, reaching its highest level of the session after an early dip to 8,696.80.

The Small Ordinaries rose 33.80 points, or 1.01%, to 3,379.00, showing that the recovery extended beyond the largest companies. Retailers, property-related businesses and selected technology and resources stocks attracted buying, although sharp individual losses remained.

Key Highlights

• ASX 200 breaks above 8,800, advancing 1.08%.

• Small Ordinaries gains 1.01%, approaching its session high.

• Annual headline inflation rises to 4.0%, below the 4.1% consensus.

• Underlying inflation remains at 3.6%, easing immediate rate-hike concerns.

• Codan and Northern Star gain more than 6%, while Cettire jumps 36.11%.

Why higher inflation produced a market rally

The August Consumer Price Index rose 4.0% annually, up from 3.5% in July, but slightly below the 4.1% market forecast. Trimmed mean inflation, which reduces the influence of unusually large price movements, held at 3.6% for a third consecutive month.

The distinction is important. Prices continued to rise, but the underlying measure did not accelerate further. Markets responded by reducing expectations of a November rate increase, following Tuesday’s rise in the cash rate to 4.60%.

Housing and fuel remained significant pressure points. Housing costs increased 5.7% annually, while automotive fuel prices jumped 14.8% during August, reflecting higher world oil prices and the unwinding of remaining fuel-excise relief.

For equities, the encouraging development was a reduced risk of additional tightening. Inflation is still above target, and the figures do not establish that the RBA’s work is complete.

Retail and property-related shares find support

REA Group Limited (ASX) advanced 5.77%, while JB Hi-Fi Limited (ASX) gained 4.36% and Wesfarmers Limited (ASX) rose 4.03%.

These moves were consistent with improved sentiment towards businesses exposed to housing activity and household spending. Fewer additional rate increases would reduce the risk of a further squeeze on mortgage holders and discretionary purchases.

That remains an interpretation of the trading pattern rather than evidence that household conditions have already improved. Tuesday’s rate increase still needs to flow through the economy.

Codan’s earnings outlook adds substance to its advance

Codan Limited (ASX) climbed 6.30%, extending investor interest following its trading update earlier in the week.

The company expects first-half FY27 net profit after tax of at least A$160 million, compared with A$71.2 million a year earlier, subject to final product mix and shipments. Communications revenue is forecast at A$400 million–A$410 million, supported by strong demand.

That gives Codan a specific earnings catalyst alongside the broader improvement in market sentiment.

Northern Star rises as takeover interest remains in focus

Northern Star Resources Limited (ASX) gained 6.18%, while Ramelius Resources Limited (ASX) added 2.85%.

Northern Star’s advance came amid reports that Gold Fields was considering increasing the cash component of its rejected takeover proposal. This remains a reported possibility, rather than a confirmed revised offer.

The original proposal included 0.3125 Gold Fields shares and A$7.25 cash for each Northern Star share. Northern Star rejected the approach, arguing that it undervalued the business.

The takeover backdrop provides a company-specific explanation for interest in Northern Star, beyond movements in gold or interest-rate expectations.

Small caps participate, but outcomes remain uneven

The Small Ordinaries traded close to its session high of 3,380.20, recovering from an early low of 3,342.60.

Cettire Limited (ASX) stood out with a 36.11% rise on volume exceeding 11.29 million shares, while Image Resources NL (ASX) advanced 28.57%.

Among mid-caps, SKS Technologies Group Limited (ASX) gained 10.05%, Karoon Energy Limited (ASX) rose 7.59%, and DroneShield Limited (ASX) added 6.97%.

These gains demonstrate participation across different industries, but a rising index does not mean funding conditions or operating prospects have improved equally for every company.

Lindian’s decline highlights continuing project risks

Lindian Resources Limited (ASX) fell 21.85% despite issuing an update stating that the export position for Kangankunde’s beneficiated monazite concentrate remained unchanged.

The company’s clarification followed scrutiny of Malawi’s proposed beneficiation regulations, which remain in draft form. The contrast between that assurance and the share-price decline highlights continuing uncertainty around the regulatory backdrop.

Elsewhere, Develop Global Limited (ASX) fell 10%. Among smaller companies, Chimeric Therapeutics Limited (ASX) dropped 40%, Ausmon Resources Limited (ASX) lost 33.33%, and Altech Batteries Limited (ASX) declined 25%.

Samso Concluding Comments

Wednesday’s rally combines relief over the interest-rate outlook with distinct company stories involving earnings, takeover interest and project risk.

For small-cap investors, the improvement in sentiment is welcome, but the more durable questions remain company-specific: how much cash is available, what must be funded next, and which milestones can materially change the business?

A more supportive market can improve the reception for those stories. Delivery determines whether that interest lasts.

Wednesday, September 30, 2026 | Pre-market update

Australian shares are poised for a muted opening as investors await inflation figures that could influence the Reserve Bank’s next move after lifting the cash rate to 4.60%.

ASX futures were down five points, or 0.1%, at 8,747. The Australian dollar traded around US69.83 cents before market open.

The immediate focus is the August Consumer Price Index, scheduled for release at 11:30 am AEST.

ASX today: Key Highlights

• RBA raises rates to 4.60%, its fourth increase of 2026.

• August inflation figures provide the next test for interest-rate expectations.

• ASX 200 closed Tuesday up 0.34% at 8,709.30.

• Wall Street slips as the US 10-year Treasury yield holds around 5.25%.

• Oil retreats, providing a mixed lead for Australian sectors.

Inflation follows the RBA’s rate increase

Australian shares recovered late on Tuesday after Governor Michele Bullock’s press conference tempered expectations of rapid further tightening. The ASX 200 finished 29.60 points higher, reversing its initial decline following the announcement.

Further increases remain possible. Wednesday’s inflation reading will help investors assess whether price pressures are easing sufficiently, with September-quarter figures also due before the November policy meeting.

For property, consumer businesses and companies requiring fresh capital, that outlook matters through borrowing costs, household spending and access to funding.

Wall Street closes lower

US shares finished Tuesday weaker as elevated bond yields weighed on valuations.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.3% to 51,349.92, the S&P 500 declined 0.2% to 7,670.84, and the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.1% to 26,797.54. The Russell 2000 lost 0.4%.

The US 10-year Treasury yield remained around 5.25%, although comments from New York Federal Reserve President John Williams reduced expectations of an immediate follow-up rate increase.

Oil retreats as supply concerns ease

November Brent futures settled Tuesday 2.6% lower at US$102.59 a barrel, while the more actively traded Brent contract fell 1.7% to US$96.16. The prices reflect different delivery contracts.

Lower crude prices could pressure Australian energy producers while offering relief to transport operators and other fuel-intensive businesses.

Asia mixed; Europe mostly lower

China’s Shanghai Composite gained 0.2% following pledges of additional policy support, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell approximately 0.5%.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 lost 0.60% to 65,481.27, and India’s Sensex declined 0.33% to 72,529.07.

In Europe, the FTSE 100 fell 0.45%, France’s CAC 40 declined 0.53%, and Germany’s DAX edged 0.10% higher.

Samso Concluding Comments

The inflation release is Wednesday’s main domestic catalyst. For small-cap investors, the implications extend beyond the headline index: cash reserves, financing commitments and the path to sustainable revenue become more important while interest rates remain elevated.