ASX today: Gold slump tests miners as investors await RBA rate decision

Tuesday, September 29, 2026 | Samso Morning Report | 9:30 am AEST

Australian shares are poised for a flat opening on Tuesday, with an anticipated Reserve Bank interest-rate increase and a sharp overnight decline in gold setting the agenda.

SPI futures were one point higher at 8,721, offering little direction after Monday’s modest gain. The Australian dollar traded at US70.19 cents.

The subdued futures lead masks potentially divergent sector moves. Gold and copper producers face weaker commodity prices, while higher oil could support energy companies. Technology stocks inherit another negative session on Wall Street as rising bond yields continue to challenge valuations.

ASX Today: Key highlights

• ASX futures point to a flat start ahead of the RBA announcement.

• Markets price a 93% probability of a rate increase to 4.60%.

• Gold futures fell 3.5%, while copper lost 1.9%.

• The US 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.23%, keeping pressure on equities.

• Brent crude settled at US$105.28 a barrel, after retreating from its session highs.

• Bitcoin traded near US$83,455 in the early morning snapshot.

RBA guidance could matter as much as the decision

The Reserve Bank will announce its decision at 2.30pm AEST, with the cash rate currently at 4.35%.

A quarter-percentage-point increase to 4.60% is widely anticipated. Morning market pricing places the probability at approximately 93%, although the decision remains pending.

Attention will then turn to Governor Michele Bullock’s 3.30pm AEST press conference, particularly any indication that another increase could follow in November.

For investors, the distinction matters. A widely expected increase may already be reflected in prices, while guidance pointing to further tightening could prompt another reassessment of borrowing costs, household spending and company valuations.

Wall Street falls as bond yields rise

US equities finished Monday lower:

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 347.11 points, or 0.7%, to 51,481.51.

• The S&P 500 declined 59.72 points, or 0.8%, to 7,683.69.

• The Nasdaq Composite lost 248.34 points, or 0.9%, to 26,820.38.

The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.23%, with yields reaching levels last seen in 2007 during the session. Higher borrowing costs and persistent inflation concerns weighed on sentiment.

Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ) fell 4.8%, contributing to a 1.7% decline in communication services. American Airlines Group Inc (NASDAQ) lost 2.5% and United Airlines Holdings Inc (NASDAQ) declined 2.2% as fuel costs remained in focus.

Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ) resisted the broader weakness, rising 1.7% after announcing an additional US$150 billion share-buyback authorisation.

Gold and copper deliver a weak resources lead

Gold futures fell US$152.80, or 3.5%, to US$4,168.40 an ounce, reaching a seven-week low. Spot gold was quoted separately at US$4,112.10 in the morning snapshot.

The decline reflects the difficult environment for a metal that pays no interest when bond yields are rising. Newmont Corporation (NYSE) fell 4.3% in US trading, providing a negative lead for Australian gold producers.

Copper futures declined 1.9% to US$6.566 a pound, while aluminium fell 1.4% to US$3,385.75 a tonne. Weak Chinese economic signals and a firmer US dollar added to pressure on industrial metals.

Iron ore futures eased 0.1% to US$96.92 a tonne.

These moves follow substantial selling across Australian resources on Monday, leaving miners vulnerable to another difficult opening.

Oil retains gains after volatile trading

Brent crude settled 0.9% higher at US$105.28 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate finished at US$92.60, up 0.2%.

Prices initially jumped after US President Donald Trump rejected an Iranian proposal to end the conflict. They subsequently pared gains as expectations of further mediation revived hopes of negotiations.

For the ASX, stronger crude offers a potentially supportive backdrop for Woodside Energy Group Limited (ASX) and Santos Limited (ASX). However, sustained high fuel prices also increase costs for transport, industrial and consumer businesses, complicating the inflation outlook.

Monday’s ASX gain concealed small-cap weakness

The S&P/ASX 200 closed Monday at 8,679.70, up 0.17%, as healthcare, utilities and financials offset resources losses.

The Small Ordinaries fell 1.30% to 3,312.00, highlighting the uneven performance beneath the benchmark.

Tuesday’s combination of weaker metals and an imminent rates decision presents another test for smaller companies, particularly those seeking funding for development projects.

Asia and Europe finish unevenly

Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed Monday at 65,877.62, down 0.7%. South Korea’s market fell approximately 2.7%, while Shanghai declined around 1.7%.

European markets were more resilient. The FTSE 100 slipped 0.1% to 10,684.88, while the broader FTSEurofirst 300 finished virtually unchanged.

British housebuilders rallied after the government flagged an equity-loan programme for first-home buyers. That strength helped offset weakness in mining shares and concerns about elevated oil prices and bond yields.

What to watch

Beyond the RBA announcement, US consumer confidence and JOLTS job openings will provide further evidence on demand and labour-market conditions.

Australian companies making dividend payments include Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX), Fortescue Limited (ASX), Pro Medicus Limited (ASX) and Netwealth Group Limited (ASX).

Samso Concluding Comments

ASX Today: Tuesday’s market will have two distinct tests: the opening response to weaker metals and the afternoon response to the RBA.

The anticipated rate increase is already well signalled. The more consequential question is whether the accompanying commentary suggests further tightening, and how that changes the outlook for company earnings and access to capital.