ASX today: RBA hikes rates to 4.60% as benchmark falls, small caps hold gains
Updated: Sep 29
Tuesday, September 29, 2026 | Market Update at 3:00 AEST
The Reserve Bank of Australia has raised the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.60%, delivering its fourth increase of 2026 and taking interest rates to their highest level since 2011. The decision puts borrowing costs and the possibility of further tightening at the centre of the Australian market outlook.
The ASX 200 surrendered its earlier gains around the announcement, while the Small Ordinaries remained positive despite easing from its session high.
Key Highlights
RBA lifts the cash rate from 4.35% to 4.60%.
ASX 200 falls 0.16% to 8,665.40 AEST.
Small Ordinaries gain 0.53% to 3,329.40
Technology and materials provide support as financials, property and utilities weaken.
RBA leaves further tightening on the table
The increase ends the RBA’s two-meeting pause. Persistent inflation remains the central concern, with the bank indicating that further increases are possible if needed.
For investors, the question extends beyond this single decision: how long will borrowing costs remain elevated, and how much pressure will that place on household spending, corporate earnings and investment?
ASX 200 loses its earlier footing
The S&P/ASX 200 was down 14.30 points at 8,665.40, having reached an intraday high of 8,697.80.
The chart shows a sharp fall around the 2:30 pm announcement, followed by further weakness. That timing is consistent with a negative market response, although it does not establish that the rate decision explains every move.
At 3:00 pm, technology remained positive, and materials were up 0.34%. Financials, energy, real estate and utilities were lower, leaving the benchmark without sufficient support to retain its advance.
Small caps remain ahead despite sharp individual losses
The Small Ordinaries was 17.40 points higher, although below its session peak of 3,338.40.
Altech Batteries Limited (ASX:ATC) led the small-cap advancers, rising 100%, while Ausmon Resources Limited (ASX:AOA) gained 50%. Both gains represented an increase of A$0.001 per share, highlighting how small price movements can produce substantial percentage gains in low-priced stocks.
That positive index performance coexisted with substantial losses among individual smaller companies. Tempest Minerals Limited (ASX) fell 20%, while Andromeda Metals Limited (ASX) and Eagle Mountain Mining Limited (ASX) each declined 14.29%.
These moves do not establish a broad small-cap retreat. The Small Ordinaries covers companies within the ASX 300 but outside the ASX 100, rather than every listed small company. Different constituents and weights allow it to outperform the ASX 200.
Samso Concluding Comments
Higher rates deserve particular attention when assessing smaller companies that still need funding before reaching commercial production or sustainable earnings.
Borrowing can become more expensive, while investors may demand stronger returns before committing fresh equity. The implications depend on each company’s cash reserves, debt terms and spending commitments.
Tuesday’s snapshot shows small caps retaining a gain after the RBA decision. For investors, the more durable question is which businesses have enough financial capacity to keep delivering while capital remains expensive.
Tuesday, September 29, 2026 | Market update | 11: am AEST
Australian shares edged higher on Tuesday morning as sharp gains in Codan and Megaport supported technology stocks, with investors bracing for an imminent RBA decision widely expected to lift the cash rate to 4.60%.
The S&P/ASX 200 was up 0.16% at 8,693.70, recovering from an earlier low of 8,670.
Smaller companies performed more strongly. The Small Ordinaries gained 18.60 points, or 0.56%, to 3,330.60, recovering part of Monday’s 1.30% decline.
Key Highlights
RBA decision approaching: Markets anticipate a 25-basis-point increase to 4.60%.
Codan jumped 18.93% after strengthening its earnings outlook.
Megaport rose 16.76% following major AI infrastructure contracts.
Small caps rebounded 0.56%, although individual performances remained uneven.
Technology led sector gains, while energy, financials, utilities and property were weaker.
Expected RBA rate hike dominates the afternoon outlook
The Reserve Bank will announce its decision at 2.30 pm AEST. Early morning pricing indicated a 93% probability of a quarter-percentage-point increase, taking the cash rate from 4.35% to 4.60%. The increase remains an expectation until the announcement.
Governor Michele Bullock’s subsequent press conference will be closely watched for indications of whether further tightening could follow.
That leaves the afternoon session sensitive to both the decision and the accompanying outlook for inflation and interest rates.
Codan and Megaport deliver company-specific catalysts
Codan Limited (ASX) surged 18.93% after forecasting first-half FY27 net profit of at least A$160 million, compared with A$71.2 million a year earlier.
Stronger communications orders, particularly for unmanned systems, supported the upgrade. Codan increased its full-year communications revenue growth target to 30%–40%, while cautioning that demand from conflict regions remains difficult to forecast beyond three months.
Megaport Limited (ASX) advanced 16.76% after securing three AI infrastructure contracts worth a combined A$978.6 million.
The company raised its FY27 revenue forecast to A$720 million–A$810 million and lifted its EBITDA margin guidance to 42%–44%.
NEXTDC Limited (ASX) added 1.74%, while WiseTech Global Limited (ASX) gained 1.54%.
Resources rebound despite weaker overnight metals
Materials were positive in the sector snapshot, with Ramelius Resources Limited (ASX) gaining 2.95% and South32 Limited (ASX) advancing 2.36%.
Minerals 260 Limited (ASX) rose 4.76%, while Sunrise Energy Metals Limited (ASX) added 3.98%.
The recovery came despite Monday’s overseas settlements showing gold futures down 3.5% to US$4,168.40 an ounce and copper down 1.9% to US$6.566 a pound. These are overnight reference prices, rather than Tuesday’s live quotes.
Energy remained weaker, with Karoon Energy Limited (ASX) falling 7.88% following Monday’s production downgrade.
Small-cap buying remains selective
Altech Batteries Limited (ASX) doubled, although the gain represented a 0.1-cent price movement. Ausmon Resources Limited (ASX) rose 50%, SKK Holdings Limited (ASX) gained 33.33%, and Micro-X Limited (ASX) advanced 21.95%.
Meanwhile, 4DS Memory Limited (ASX:4DS) declined 12.50%, highlighting the uneven recovery.
Samso Concluding Comments
Strong company announcements gave investors reasons to buy despite the prospect of higher interest rates.
The next test is whether those gains hold through the RBA announcement. With an increase widely anticipated, guidance on the next stage of monetary policy could prove particularly influential.
Tuesday, September 29, 2026 | Samso Morning Report | 9:30 am AEST
Australian shares are poised for a flat opening on Tuesday, with an anticipated Reserve Bank interest-rate increase and a sharp overnight decline in gold setting the agenda.
SPI futures were one point higher at 8,721, offering little direction after Monday’s modest gain. The Australian dollar traded at US70.19 cents.
The subdued futures lead masks potentially divergent sector moves. Gold and copper producers face weaker commodity prices, while higher oil could support energy companies. Technology stocks inherit another negative session on Wall Street as rising bond yields continue to challenge valuations.
ASX Today: Key highlights
ASX futures point to a flat start ahead of the RBA announcement.
Markets price a 93% probability of a rate increase to 4.60%.
Gold futures fell 3.5%, while copper lost 1.9%.
The US 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.23%, keeping pressure on equities.
Brent crude settled at US$105.28 a barrel, after retreating from its session highs.
Bitcoin traded near US$83,455 in the early morning snapshot.
RBA guidance could matter as much as the decision
The Reserve Bank will announce its decision at 2.30pm AEST, with the cash rate currently at 4.35%.
A quarter-percentage-point increase to 4.60% is widely anticipated. Morning market pricing places the probability at approximately 93%, although the decision remains pending.
Attention will then turn to Governor Michele Bullock’s 3.30pm AEST press conference, particularly any indication that another increase could follow in November.
For investors, the distinction matters. A widely expected increase may already be reflected in prices, while guidance pointing to further tightening could prompt another reassessment of borrowing costs, household spending and company valuations.
Wall Street falls as bond yields rise
US equities finished Monday lower:
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 347.11 points, or 0.7%, to 51,481.51.
The S&P 500 declined 59.72 points, or 0.8%, to 7,683.69.
The Nasdaq Composite lost 248.34 points, or 0.9%, to 26,820.38.
The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.23%, with yields reaching levels last seen in 2007 during the session. Higher borrowing costs and persistent inflation concerns weighed on sentiment.
Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ) fell 4.8%, contributing to a 1.7% decline in communication services. American Airlines Group Inc (NASDAQ) lost 2.5% and United Airlines Holdings Inc (NASDAQ) declined 2.2% as fuel costs remained in focus.
Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ) resisted the broader weakness, rising 1.7% after announcing an additional US$150 billion share-buyback authorisation.
Gold and copper deliver a weak resources lead
Gold futures fell US$152.80, or 3.5%, to US$4,168.40 an ounce, reaching a seven-week low. Spot gold was quoted separately at US$4,112.10 in the morning snapshot.
The decline reflects the difficult environment for a metal that pays no interest when bond yields are rising. Newmont Corporation (NYSE) fell 4.3% in US trading, providing a negative lead for Australian gold producers.
Copper futures declined 1.9% to US$6.566 a pound, while aluminium fell 1.4% to US$3,385.75 a tonne. Weak Chinese economic signals and a firmer US dollar added to pressure on industrial metals.
Iron ore futures eased 0.1% to US$96.92 a tonne.
These moves follow substantial selling across Australian resources on Monday, leaving miners vulnerable to another difficult opening.
Oil retains gains after volatile trading
Brent crude settled 0.9% higher at US$105.28 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate finished at US$92.60, up 0.2%.
Prices initially jumped after US President Donald Trump rejected an Iranian proposal to end the conflict. They subsequently pared gains as expectations of further mediation revived hopes of negotiations.
For the ASX, stronger crude offers a potentially supportive backdrop for Woodside Energy Group Limited (ASX) and Santos Limited (ASX). However, sustained high fuel prices also increase costs for transport, industrial and consumer businesses, complicating the inflation outlook.
Monday’s ASX gain concealed small-cap weakness
The S&P/ASX 200 closed Monday at 8,679.70, up 0.17%, as healthcare, utilities and financials offset resources losses.
The Small Ordinaries fell 1.30% to 3,312.00, highlighting the uneven performance beneath the benchmark.
Tuesday’s combination of weaker metals and an imminent rates decision presents another test for smaller companies, particularly those seeking funding for development projects.
Asia and Europe finish unevenly
Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed Monday at 65,877.62, down 0.7%. South Korea’s market fell approximately 2.7%, while Shanghai declined around 1.7%.
European markets were more resilient. The FTSE 100 slipped 0.1% to 10,684.88, while the broader FTSEurofirst 300 finished virtually unchanged.
British housebuilders rallied after the government flagged an equity-loan programme for first-home buyers. That strength helped offset weakness in mining shares and concerns about elevated oil prices and bond yields.
What to watch
Beyond the RBA announcement, US consumer confidence and JOLTS job openings will provide further evidence on demand and labour-market conditions.
Australian companies making dividend payments include Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX), Fortescue Limited (ASX), Pro Medicus Limited (ASX) and Netwealth Group Limited (ASX).
Samso Concluding Comments
ASX Today: Tuesday’s market will have two distinct tests: the opening response to weaker metals and the afternoon response to the RBA.
The anticipated rate increase is already well signalled. The more consequential question is whether the accompanying commentary suggests further tightening, and how that changes the outlook for company earnings and access to capital.
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