ASX today: Shares slide almost 2% as RBA warns global financial risks are mounting

Samso Afternoon market update — Thursday, 1 October 2026

Australian shares extended their losses after midday on Thursday, October 1, erasing Wednesday’s rally as elevated global bond yields pressured valuations and the Reserve Bank warned of growing threats to financial stability.

The S&P/ASX 200 fell 171.1 points, or 1.95%, to 8,618.20, while the All Ordinaries declined 1.90% to 8,798.70. Smaller companies also retreated, with the Small Ordinaries losing 56.7 points, or 1.68%, to 3,311.90.

The decline more than reversed Wednesday’s 80-point advance. Property stocks were particularly weak, while sharp falls in lithium and rare-earth companies added to the pressure.

The RBA’s latest Financial Stability Review provided a significant domestic development, highlighting Australia’s exposure to offshore shocks despite the resilience of its financial system.

Key highlights

• ASX 200 falls 1.95%, wiping out Wednesday’s rally.

• RBA highlights mounting global financial vulnerabilities, including stretched valuations and high sovereign debt.

• Listed property drops 2.73% as higher bond yields weigh on the sector.

• Meteoric Resources jumps 47.06% on a takeover proposal, while Lynas Rare Earths falls 7.48%.

• Liontown slides 11.83%, following approval of its Kathleen Valley expansion.

RBA warns global financial risks are mounting

The RBA’s October review warned that high sovereign debt and stretched asset valuations leave global markets vulnerable to disruption. Its assessment remained that Australia’s financial system is resilient, but exposed to international developments.

The central bank also identified risks from an AI investment reversal, geopolitical conflict, cyberattacks and a disorderly global bond sell-off.

For Australian investors, the concern is how an offshore shock could affect funding costs, credit availability and confidence. Companies needing to refinance debt or raise fresh equity can face tougher conditions even without another immediate increase in the domestic cash rate.

The review is relevant context for the session’s weakness. It does not establish that the RBA’s warning caused the sell-off, which was already under way during morning trading.

Why Wednesday’s relief rally failed to hold

Wednesday’s inflation figures offered investors some reassurance about underlying Australian price pressures. Annual headline inflation increased to 4%, but trimmed mean inflation remained at 3.6%, following Tuesday’s RBA increase in the cash rate to 4.60%.

That domestic relief ran into a less supportive international backdrop.

The US 10-year Treasury yield reached approximately 5.29%, while the 30-year yield climbed to around 5.64%. Softer-than-expected US inflation was insufficient to offset the influence of stronger economic activity and concerns about government borrowing.

Higher bond yields increase the returns available from fixed-income investments and reduce the present value of future corporate earnings. That makes it harder to sustain expensive equity valuations, particularly for businesses whose expected profits sit well into the future.

Property and healthcare under pressure

The S&P/ASX 200 A-REIT index declined 2.73%, falling more sharply than the broader benchmark.

Property trusts are sensitive to borrowing costs and the income returns investors demand. Higher yields can increase refinancing expenses and pressure property valuations, although individual exposure depends on debt arrangements, lease structures and rental growth.

Healthcare also contained substantial losses. Cochlear Limited (ASX: COH) fell 6.67% to $130.28. Earlier this week, the company disclosed a shareholder class action concerning its fiscal 2026 profit forecast. Cochlear denies the allegations and intends to defend the proceedings.

Small caps retreat, but takeover activity attracts buyers

The Small Ordinaries traded close to its session low of 3,310.10, although its 1.68% decline was less severe than the ASX 200’s fall. Selling was affecting both smaller companies and market heavyweights.

Meteoric Resources Limited (ASX: MEI) provided a striking exception, rising 47.06% to 25 cents following an approximately $968 million all-share takeover proposal from Lynas Rare Earths Limited (ASX: LYC).

Under the proposed arrangement, Meteoric shareholders would receive 0.0207 new Lynas shares for each Meteoric share held, subject to conditions and approvals. Lynas declined 7.48% to $12.80.

Because the offer uses a fixed share exchange, its implied value moves with Lynas’ share price. The contrasting performances show how an acquisition premium can support a target while investors assess the buyer’s commitments.

Liontown falls as expansion spending comes into focus

Liontown Limited (ASX: LTR) dropped 11.83% to 82 cents, after touching 81 cents.

The decline followed approval of a $389 million expansion at Kathleen Valley, intended to increase annual processing capacity from 2.8 million tonnes to 4.2 million tonnes. Fiscal 2027 capital expenditure guidance increased to $435 million–$495 million. thebull.com.au

The project offers potential production growth but increases near-term spending. That funding and execution context is particularly relevant when investors are becoming more cautious about capital-intensive developments.

Hiring softens while oil complicates the outlook

Australian job vacancies fell 0.9% to 325,000 in the three months to August, following a 2.2% decline in the preceding quarter. Private-sector vacancies decreased 2%, indicating softer demand for workers.

Meanwhile, December Brent crude futures settled overnight at US$98.03 a barrel, up 1.9%, as uncertainty surrounding the Iran conflict persisted. Higher fuel costs remain a potential pressure on business margins and inflation.

After midday, the Australian dollar traded near US69.45 cents, while Bitcoin was approximately US$83,386, down 0.2%.

Samso Concluding Comments

The RBA’s warning helps explain the broader vulnerability confronting investors: Australia can have a resilient financial system while its sharemarket remains exposed to rising global borrowing costs and changes in risk appetite.

Thursday’s reversal shows how quickly those forces can overwhelm domestic relief. For individual companies, debt obligations, cash reserves and upcoming expenditure remain useful distinctions, while Meteoric’s takeover-driven rally demonstrates that company-specific developments can still attract buyers.

Samso Morning market update — Thursday, 1 October 2026

Australian shares fell more than 1% on Thursday morning, erasing Wednesday’s gains as renewed pressure from global bond markets overshadowed relief over domestic inflation.

The S&P/ASX 200 dropped 99.70 points, or 1.13%, to 8,689.60, retreating from Wednesday’s three-week closing high of 8,789.30. The benchmark recovered modestly after touching an early low of 8,669.30.

Smaller companies followed the broader market lower. The S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries declined 39.30 points, or 1.17%, to 3,329.30, after falling as low as 3,316.00.

Both indices had surrendered more than their previous session’s advances, while the supplied sector snapshot showed all 11 sectors in negative territory.

Key highlights

• ASX 200 fell 1.13%, reversing Wednesday’s inflation-driven rally.

• Small Ordinaries lost 1.17%, with selling extending across company sizes.

• Meteoric Resources surged 51.47% following a proposed acquisition by Lynas.

• Liontown declined 10.75%, leading the supplied mid-cap fallers.

• Higher global bond yields remained an unfavourable backdrop for equities.

Bond pressure returns after inflation relief

Wednesday’s Australian rally followed steady underlying inflation, which encouraged investors to reduce expectations for another near-term RBA increase after Tuesday’s move to 4.60%.

However, the offshore session demonstrated that softer inflation does not necessarily bring lower long-term borrowing costs.

The US 10-year Treasury yield finished around 5.29%, while the 30-year yield reached 5.64%. Stronger economic growth and concerns about government borrowing helped sustain pressure on long-dated bonds despite a softer US inflation reading.

Wall Street subsequently finished mixed: the Dow Jones fell 0.9%, the S&P 500 declined 0.3%, and the Nasdaq gained 0.2%.

Thursday’s Australian sell-off was broader than the premarket futures indication of a roughly 0.5% decline.

Meteoric takeover provides a standout exception

Meteoric Resources Limited (ASX:MEI) surged 51.47%, with more than 71.5 million shares traded in the supplied morning snapshot.

The advance followed the announcement of a proposed acquisition by Lynas Rare Earths Limited (ASX:LYC) through an all-share scheme of arrangement. Meteoric shareholders would receive 0.0207 new Lynas shares for each Meteoric share, subject to the transaction’s conditions and approvals. The acquisition would add Meteoric’s Caldeira rare-earths project in Brazil to Lynas’s portfolio. fool.com.au

Lynas shares moved in the opposite direction, falling 5.64%.

The divergent responses made the transaction a prominent company story within an otherwise weak resources session. Meteoric’s rise reflected a specific corporate catalyst rather than a broad improvement in demand for rare-earths shares.

Healthcare, financials and resources retreat

Cochlear Limited (ASX:COH) fell 5.87%, while Suncorp Group Limited (ASX:SUN) declined 5.01% and AMP Limited (ASX:AMP) lost 4.23%.

Resources companies also featured prominently among the fallers. Yancoal Australia Limited (ASX:YAL) dropped 4.65%, Capricorn Metals Limited (ASX:CMM) declined 3.69%, and PLS Group Limited (ASX:PLS) fell 3.11%.

Northern Star Resources Limited (ASX:NST) retreated 3.51%, giving back part of Wednesday’s takeover-related advance. Regis Resources Limited (ASX:RRL) also lost 3.51%.

There were isolated gains. BHP Group Limited (ASX:BHP) added 0.46%, Codan Limited (ASX:CDA) rose 0.68%, and TechnologyOne Limited (ASX:TNE) gained 0.66%. These advances were insufficient to offset the wider decline.

Liontown leads mid-cap losses

Liontown Limited (ASX:LTR) fell 10.75%, with approximately 34.5 million shares traded.

The decline followed the company’s approval of a A$389 million expansion at Kathleen Valley. The project increases its longer-term production ambitions, while also raising near-term capital commitments. The expansion decision provides relevant context, although the share-price decline cannot be attributed solely to that announcement. The Bull

Elsewhere, Nickel Industries Limited (ASX:NIC) lost 5.94%, St Barbara Limited (ASX:SBM) fell 4.52%, and Sunrise Energy Metals Limited (ASX:SRL) declined 3.71%.

Among the mid-cap gainers, Kelsian Group Limited (ASX:KLS) advanced 8.18%, Life360 Inc. (ASX:360) rose 2.64%, and Predictive Discovery Limited (ASX:PDI) added 1.84%.

Small-cap winners emerge despite index weakness

Beyond Meteoric, several smaller companies attracted buying.

Image Resources NL (ASX:IMA) rose 23.53%, Cettire Limited (ASX:CTT) gained 19.15%, and SRJ Technologies Group plc (ASX:SRJ) advanced 25%.

Those individual moves stood against a declining Small Ordinaries index. Small caps were underperforming the ASX 200 only marginally, indicating that the morning’s selling extended across the market rather than being concentrated exclusively in speculative companies.

Commodities offer uneven support

Overnight, December Brent crude advanced 1.9% to US$98.03 a barrel, while the expiring November contract settled around US$103.50. The difference reflects delivery months rather than an abrupt fall in the oil price. www.reuters.com

Nevertheless, the Australian energy sector was lower in the supplied morning snapshot.

Copper futures gained 0.2% overnight, while iron ore slipped 0.1% and aluminium declined 1.1%. Gold futures edged higher, but that modest improvement did not prevent losses across several Australian gold producers.

Samso Concluding Comments

Thursday’s opening reversal shows how quickly domestic inflation relief can be overwhelmed by global financing conditions. The ASX’s return to a three-week closing high proved vulnerable when long-term bond yields rose again.

Meteoric’s takeover-driven advance also demonstrates why company research remains important during a broad sell-off. Corporate transactions, funding commitments and operational developments can produce outcomes that differ sharply from the index.

Samso Market Update | Pre-market | October 1, 2026 |

Australian shares face a weaker start to October as another rise in long-term US bond yields threatens to interrupt the recovery that lifted the ASX 200 to a three-week closing high.

ASX futures fell 48 points, or approximately 0.5%, to 8,765 in the latest supplied morning report. The Australian dollar weakened to US69.42 cents, adding another dimension to the outlook for exporters, importers and companies with overseas earnings.

The overnight session delivered a familiar tension: softer US inflation reduced expectations for an immediate Federal Reserve increase, but stronger economic growth and rising oil prices kept longer-term borrowing costs elevated.

ASX Today: Key highlights

• ASX futures point lower after Wednesday’s 0.92% advance.

• US 10-year Treasury yields reached 5.29%, renewing pressure on equity valuations.

• US annual PCE inflation eased to 3.4%, below the expected 3.7%.

• Oil advanced, offering a potentially stronger lead for Australian energy producers.

• Australian trade and job-vacancy figures are the principal domestic releases.

Wall Street loses its early momentum

US shares initially welcomed the softer inflation report, but the advance faded as investors reassessed the strength of the economy and the continuing rise in long-term yields.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 443.87 points, or 0.9%, to 50,906.05. The S&P 500 lost 19.30 points, or 0.3%, to 7,651.54, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 63.52 points, or 0.2%, to 26,861.06.

The mixed finish reflected continued support for selected technology companies despite weakness elsewhere.

Among the S&P 500’s strongest performers, Gen Digital Inc. (NASDAQ:GEN) rose 5.61%, Cboe Global Markets Inc. (CBOE:CBOE) gained 5.17%, and Synopsys Inc. (NASDAQ:SNPS) advanced 4.78%.

On the downside, Jabil Inc. (NYSE:JBL) dropped 10.03%, Moderna Inc. (NASDAQ:MRNA) fell 5.35%, and AppLovin Corporation (NASDAQ:APP) declined 4.98%.

Softer inflation fails to contain bond yields

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, rose 3.4% over the year to August, below expectations of 3.7%.

However, the final estimate of second-quarter US economic growth was revised up to an annualised 2.2%, from 1.5%. The combination offered evidence of easing inflation alongside a more resilient economy.

Short-term yields initially declined as traders reduced expectations for an October Fed increase. Longer-term bonds followed a different path: the 10-year Treasury yield finished around 5.29%, while the 30-year yield climbed to 5.64%.

For Australian equities, the distinction matters. Expectations for fewer immediate policy increases can support sentiment, but high long-term yields still influence corporate funding costs and the valuations investors assign to future earnings.

Property companies and highly valued growth businesses therefore face a less supportive offshore lead than Wednesday’s domestic rally might suggest.

ASX enters October after inflation-driven rebound

The S&P/ASX 200 closed Wednesday at 8,789.30, up 80 points or 0.92%, marking its strongest closing level in three weeks. The All Ordinaries rose 0.93% to 8,969.20, while the Small Ordinaries gained 0.70% to 3,368.60.

The advance followed Australia’s August inflation report, which showed annual trimmed-mean inflation holding at 3.6% despite headline inflation accelerating to 4.0%. Investors reduced expectations for another near-term increase after the RBA lifted the cash rate to 4.60% on Tuesday.

Listed property was particularly strong, with the A-REIT index gaining 3.60%. Thursday’s opening will test whether that recovery can withstand the renewed pressure from global bonds.

Oil rises, with an important contract distinction

Oil advanced as stalled US–Iran negotiations and tight fuel markets kept supply concerns in focus.

The more actively traded December Brent contract rose 1.9% to US$98.03 a barrel. The expiring November contract finished around US$103.50. These are different delivery contracts; the lower December quotation should not be interpreted as an overnight collapse from above US$103.

West Texas Intermediate gained 1.2% to US$90.42 a barrel, according to the supplied morning report.

Higher crude provides a potentially favourable lead for Woodside Energy Group Limited (ASX:WDS) and Santos Limited (ASX:STO). For airlines, transport operators and other fuel-intensive businesses, it adds to operating-cost pressure.

Metals, currencies and Bitcoin

The overnight commodity picture was mixed:

• Gold futures: up 0.2% to US$4,186.70 an ounce.

• Spot gold: approximately US$4,155.99 an ounce.

• Copper futures: up 0.2% to US$6.559 a pound.

• Aluminium futures: down 1.1% to US$3,285 a tonne.

• Iron ore futures: down 0.1% to US$96.59 a tonne.

• Bitcoin: approximately US$83,678 in the morning snapshot.

Copper’s modest improvement provides some support for producers, while softer aluminium and iron ore offer a less positive lead for other resources exposures.

The weaker Australian dollar can lift the local-currency value of US-dollar commodity revenue, although the benefit varies with hedging arrangements, costs and debt. For importers, the same currency move can increase purchasing costs.

Asia finishes mixed; Europe retreats

Wednesday’s Asian session was led by Japan, where the Nikkei 225 gained 1.9% to 66,753.72.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.4% to 24,613.27, and the Shanghai Composite added 0.3% to 3,842.19. The Shenzhen Composite slipped 0.2% to 2,404.48, while India’s BSE Sensex declined 0.1% to 72,480.29.

European markets finished lower. Britain’s FTSE 100 fell 0.3% to 10,606.00, Germany’s DAX lost 0.8% to 25,199.19, and France’s CAC 40 declined 0.9% to 7,964.51.

What to watch

Australia’s August international trade figures and job-vacancy report are scheduled for release on Thursday. Vacancies will provide another indication of labour demand, while the trade figures will help assess export performance.

Overnight, attention turns to US weekly unemployment claims and the September ISM manufacturing survey. Both will help investors assess whether economic resilience continues to sustain elevated bond yields.

Samso Concluding Comments

The opening challenge is whether Australian shares can retain Wednesday’s improvement in sentiment while global financing conditions remain restrictive.

Small caps participated in the previous session’s recovery, but their funding needs and longer development timelines can make them sensitive to sustained high borrowing costs. Energy producers have a stronger commodity lead, while property and growth stocks face a more difficult valuation backdrop.

The useful focus remains on companies with sufficient funding, credible earnings and measurable operational progress as October begins.